frizzers
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Platinum, palladium trade with base metals in that they are industrial metals
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From the attached report by UBS
What if there was a new gold standard?
One question, once unthinkable, is increasingly being asked by investors: where
could gold go if a new gold standard was adopted to support currencies, but
most pressingly the world’s reserve currency, the US dollar.
The answer is reasonably simple if one assumes that the only currency in
circulation needs to be backed directly and completely by gold.
If one uses the current value of the US monetary base, which has risen at an
unprecedented rate recently, and compares this with official US holdings
data, which suggest the government holds 8,134 tonnes, a value of
US$6,498/oz is derived for gold. That is, gold would need to be valued at
this level to support the value of the dollar, given the supply of dollars in
circulation. We have also calculated the implied gold price using the
monetary base level before the recent spike; this corresponds to US$3,250/oz.
If one includes Japan, as the world’s second-biggest economy (given its gold
holdings are significantly lower at 765 tonnes), a value of US$8,459/oz is
calculated.
Finally, if one also includes China (using the base money supply for all three
countries and combined holdings of gold), a value of US$9,562/oz is
calculated.
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What's going to happen on April 20th? There will be a turn, but where?
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Russia calls for gold standard return.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/finance...ial-crisis.html
Amazing.
It's coming. I'mtelling you. It's coming.
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Martin Armstrong on gold:
Gold Monthly 2009 Gold has been the best performing investment on the board. It has continued to make new highs in all currencies but the dollar, but even there it is holding on like a politician in his right to control the lives of others. While production of gold was expanding dramatically going into the 1980 high of $875, today, South African production has been dropping like a stone. South Africa is no longer the leading producer in gold and just as demand is rising, the production is falling.
From a pure technical view, the breakout line from the 1999 low stood precisely at $718 last October, and provided the closing support. Once exceeded, it was penetrated 601 y during Sept/Oct of 2006 on a monthly closing basis and has held nicely for this '08 reaction low. This technical line moves up to about $810 by the end of 2010. Near-term, if we see a real Waterfall Effect in the Dow Jones Industrials going into June 2009 where a collapse takes place back to the 4,000 area, we may see a corresponding high or a major key turning point in gold also for June 2009. This does not appear to be the major or high, but we may see a shocking punch upward with a next thrust. If gold breaks out to new highs going into June 2009 as the now makes a major low, there could be a 5 month reaction low forming by November 2009, with a rally thereafter into about April 2011 for the intraday high, but leaving 2010 as the highest close annually. Gold would then reverse perhaps, but this may be due to Government intervention at that point in time.
Gold still appears to be headed to at least the $2,500 level by 2011. Exceeding that area before the end of 2009, would open the door to a potential rally even up to the $5,000 level. Please keep in mind, this is a relative forecast. That means the dollar would be little of its former self. What we are honestly talking about is the collapse of our Governmental infrastructure not so different from Russia. In plain words, Russia could no longer sustain its control of the economy because it was broke. We are approaching the same problem. Just because we have been always able to borrow and never worry about what would happen when the day comes that the well is dry, does not mean we have bottomless pit. A very minor technical projection shows resistance for gold scaling in from the 1 ,100 to 1,200 level for 2009. Breaking through this technical resistance area will signal that we are in a very serious economic implosion.
http://www.contrahour.com/contrahour/2009/...the-lights.html
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Where will you buy? What will you buy? And how much will you pay?
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It would certainly appear as though gold has gone nowhere over the past six weeks.
That's because bullion closed Monday less than 1% higher than where it stood in late January.
But, from another perspective, one that focuses on changes in the consensus mood among gold traders, a lot has happened over the past six weeks. And, on balance, these developments on the sentiment front are bullish for gold, according to contrarian analysis.
Consider the Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Index (HGNSI), which reflects the average recommended gold market exposure among a subset of short-term gold timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest. As of Monday night, the HGNSI stood at 36.8%.
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Stor...amp;siteid=nbsh
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David Morgan has also just issued a buy signal on silver.
Guernsey Mint: I think I spoke to them on the phone once and, from recollection, they didn't seem that cheap. Anything else I can't really help.
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I have been following the very informative discussion on gold here on GEI for a long time.
I started investing in PM since 2005, thanks to Dr Bubb, and have been watching closely the gold market. I primarily use the buy and hold principle and do not plan to add to my investment (already>80% invested in gold, silver and PM stocks with excellent, indifferent and bad results correspondingly) but would consider trading small fractions at appropriate times, although I have no trading experience.
My impression so far has been that the market fluctuations are analogous to 2007 and gold may consolide in the 900's range until the next wave up in September. The surges appear to have a period of 2 years, thus the surge in spring of 2006 was followed by consolidation in 2007 and the surge in spring of 2008 may also be expected to be followed by consolidation in 2009. This expectation is based on the fact that the demand is still primarily driven by the jewellery sector, not investment, and jewellery demand increases only when prices are stable. The gold price stability in 2007 resulted in sharp increase of demand by India and this was necessary for the next investment driven wave up in 2008. This view is not inconsistent with DrBubb's view that a revisit to 850 is possible and we may have already seen the high point this spring.
I noticed, however, yesterday a small inconsistency which could be important. In February 2007, the gold price was close to the 200DMA. In analogy the current correction should lead to 850 (which is approximately the current 200DMA level). But the latest COT report, showed a sharp increase in commercial longs and the HUI over the last two days was stable despite the reduction in the gold price. Is the correction over and might we break the 1000 level again?. That would break the analogy which I tried to draw. Perhaps, it is dangerous to draw conclusions on the basis of a single cot report, or the significance of the report is overemphasized.
Yes, this is the one piece of jigsaw that isn't in place.
COT report is not suggesting a major correction here, nor i at levels consistent with the annual shake-out. The conclusion I draw is that this correction should not be too disastrous.
I agree with your view of gold's two year pattern: 6- to 9-month surge followed by 12- to 18-month consolidation.
A possible scenario: we go back to 850 , we rally weakly to say mid 900s , we go back to high 800s , then to lower mid 900s , by the summer gold fever has died off again, gold is sitting on 52 week moving average somewhere around 900, some have lost interest in gold, nobody can understand why gold isn't higher given crap economic news, Dr Bubb posts a long-term chart suggesting gold has to make a move here or it is over, it makes a low in July-August and we get our next 6- to 9-month rally, which takes us to Sinclair's $1650 on a spike. It then corrects sharply to $1030, everyone screams manipulation and we have another 18 months of consolidation.
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Where I work, most people think that buying gold is some sort of joke - even if you show them the Kitko 10 year Gold Chart they just laugh.
I think that most are waiting for a resumption of the long term property bull which will start any second now. A few are chuffed because they are benefitting from the current low interest rates on their mortgages.
I don't think that anyone believes that there is a possibility of serious wealth destroying trends in the coming years. Suggestions of hyperinflation or long term depression or peak oil are put down to 'dooming and glooming'.
We also have a stakeholder pension plan. I don't know of anyone, except for me, who has selected their funds. Everyone has just opted for the default 'lifestyle plan'.
The main topics of interest are things like 'celebrity media stuff'; 'Saturday evening singing contests on the TV'; football; holidays; luxury or sports cars; and tabloid newspaper rubbish.
If people like these start to buy gold, I will be convinced that we are in the final phase.
Nice.
I was mad buying gold two or three years ago. Now I am the one who was on the right side of the markets. I am getting flickers of interest from some. When I suggest buying gold and storing at home or somewhere safe, I get a 'What! Actual gold!' . Still not in the mainstream.
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My trigger finger is getting itchy!!!!
Come on PPT please get it down some more...I have a pile of sterling I need to swap for something valuable!
Slowly slowly catchy monkey
Fasty fasty catchy knife
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My observation of London SW :
- transactions are down hugely
- properties are sitting unsold ; when they don't sell they're letting them out
- sellers still believe that 2007 prices or similar will come back in a couple of years
- buyers are unsure what to believe so they're watching and waiting. Some still think this is not a major collapse
- there are very few forced sellers as yet (will these come as interest rates sky rocket - 1 year or so away?)
- a lot of people on tracker mortgages feel quite well off because their monthly payments are down. (For how long?)
- there is fear and lack of understanding everywhere
- estate agents are not earning any commission
- family homes - once the invulnerable sector - have been hit
- prices are down but not have collapsed - we are the road down to the cliff but have not fallen off
More when I think of mre
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By the way I think we are in the early stages of a correction - the annual gold shake-out - but your bearish tone suggests it is going to be VERY big. Do you not think a 50% correction of the gains since late Oct - 700 to 1000 = 300 , so retrace 150 to 850 - is the most likely scenrio? Or , worse case, perhaps to that area of support just above 700 ?
Do you really see more than that?
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some possible levels on the way down ... UPDATE
Nice chart.
It's interesting how gld after it has left a gap seems to go back and bounce off the top off the gap without quite filling it. There is a lot of back-and-flling to be done.
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I do take him seriously. His track record is superb. He was top Gold timer in 2008.
And this is one (of several) reasons I have been lightening up on Gold shares.
A drop from a double top to $500 cannot be ruled out.
And we are in the right season for a high in Gold, whatever the bulls have been saying.
$500 - do you really think we'll get there?
Plucking a figure out of thin air, what's your target on the downside for this move?
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If we get Rubino's Clean Tech boom, uranium will do well.
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I know I've said it before, but U looks like it has bottomed and is crawling back albeit slowly
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It will come. DOn't worry. They are reliable.
Hey, silver is almost at all time highs in sterling - just under £10 an ounce.
The Dow Jones to gold ratio is around 7 . (Dow 7000 , gold 1000).
Listening to the very clever Frank Barbera he sees a big stock sell off coming and was ambivalent about gold. But if we get cgnao's Dow 3000 , well we're nearly there.
I'm convinced gold s going to be hit this week or next. But there are so many others convinced of it that it makes me slightly bullish.
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Gold and silver COT reports show do not indicate an impending top. The traders are not at extreme levels identified with previous tops. Would post charts but imageshack is down.
Meanwhile average UK house at c.£150, 000 and gold at c£700 an ounce now 214 ounces.
Average London house at c.£260,000 now equals 371 ounces.
This ratio is changing rapidly as gold rises, sterling falls and house prices fall. Big differences on just three months ago.
Goldfinger's eventual target is 50 ounces for av UK home . Mine is or was 100 ounces. I think we could see 50 though.
GF what is your target for London h prices? 1980 peak was just above 100 ounces . I think we could make that.
In full scale disaster scenario - not impossible - you'll pick up places at the bottom at below market value.
This is unfolding faster than I expected. I think a retrace must happen soon. Hang onto your hats.
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Yes, bull indeed.
Uranium: Price is booming
in Energy: Oil, Coal, Uranium etc.
Posted
Uranium Junior of potential:
Mike Magrum tells us about his company Xemplar Energy (CA:XE / US:ZEPRF / Frankfurt : E7R) , who are exploring for Uranium in Namibia.
Namibia, a coountry with a rich history in mining, is known for its low grade and high tonnage uranium deposits. Currently, there are two uranium mines (Rossing and Langer Heinrich) operating in Namibia, producing 8% of the world’s U3O8 and over the past 18 months two low grade uranium deposits of significant size in Namibia have been the subject of a takeover (UraMin for its Trekkopje Deposit) and a takeover offer (Forsys Metals for its Valencia Deposit).
http://commoditywatch.podbean.com/2009/04/27/xemplar-energy/