frizzers

May the Force be with us:

Difference between trades and long-term investment

Don't know WM.

Here's that chart

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Just posted this elsewhere:

I am short SPX from 1295. Covered some at 1220. I see a retrace to maybe 1260-1270, then further falls.

I am long coffee from 135.

I am long a shed load of gold miners and badly underwater with most. I wish I had more cash as I would be buying the feck out of various ones now.

I have very little money in sterling. Physical gold is up 40% on last year v sterling. People look at dollar gold because that is how SBing works , but gold v pound gold is doing just fine.

You selling your Krugers was a big wake -up call for me . But if you took pounds for them it wasn't that great a trade unless you got that money out of pounds sharpish.

I am long gold from 850 as I thought it would hold there and it didn't. I would have bought more below 800 but then my position would get too big and I make crap decisions when my position gets too big.

I think, gold-wise, this is post May 2006 all over again. 785 is a great place for a bottom, but we could also go back to 730 quite easily and even mid 650s. I do not think we will get a big move any time soon and see a year or more of whipsawing with the next run beginning most likely summer 2009. Too many people have been badly burnt.

I would expect another test of 850 before Xmas, perhaps if dollar retraces some of its recent gains which looks likely.

COT report is very bullish for gold (same as Aug last year) but less so for silver. Time of year very bullish. You've seen my dollar chart so a move to 850 looks very imminent. But you can't get wedded to the gold is the only money story. You have to be ruthless about taking profits in a whipsaw market.

We are in entering a period of deflation, or at least perceived deflation , and of credit contraction. In these circumstances you are seeing a global flight to cash. Dollar is global reserve currency for now , so people are buying dollars. It is possible as in 2004-5 to see dollar and gold rise together.

Fact that small investors are buying so much physical bodes well. But could also be small investor late to the party again.

In short traders market for now. Not a stay long and be strong market.

frizzers - 6 Sep'08 - 12:10 - 46280 of 46280 edit

Also chart action looks we could be setting up a nice W bottom

I think the chap behind the movement's name is Hugo de Salinas from memory

According to Hoye and I think he is right, silver will outperform during an inflationary credit expansion , but it will be one of the worst performing assets during a deflationary credit contraction. We are in a credit contraction now.

Gold back down again today. $15 at time of writing.

I'm afraid it looks as if we are going to get a retest of the lows.

If they hold that will set up alovely W bottom.

What's youreventual target, GF , forthe gold tohouse priceratio?

MONTHLY CHART of CDNX/ proxy for Junior miners

 

The 48mo.MA gave way recently, around CDNX-2500, and that led to a sharp drop.

 

Next, the 76mo.MA*, near CDNX-2000 should be able to provide some support

 

I like the way that volume has dried up on this drop. Previously, that has helped to signal a bottom

 

*(same as 330wk.MA, which comes up around CDNX-2100)

Hi Dr,

Looking at this, I see some support at 2000 and if that doesn't hold - and it wouldn't surprise me if it doesn't - I see the next stop at 1500, in other words another 25% drop. This has fallen off a cliff.

I am positive about the index because of the time of year, but that is all I can find to say that is positive about it. Sadly.

Likewise gold will follow oil lower, if it goes lower imo.

I bet it was YK2 fears

Here’s some more of my analysis of oil vs gold for the last eight years. This post is topical, as we go from what I see as the “gold winter season” (Mar-Aug) to a “gold summer season” (Sep-Feb) during the next week.

 

Look how the gold-to-oil ratio varies between both seasons – both graphs normalized to the ratio on the first day of the “season” There is a clear (but gradual) mean downward trend from Mar-Aug and a clear mean upwards trend from Sept-Feb (mostly before Xmas). This pattern holds for most years, although there are exceptions.

 

I’m wondering if we are nearing a bottom in the gold-to-oil ratio, which would suggest better prospects for gold in the next few months.

Good work

I hadn't heard of the moon-phase influencing trading.

 

Although I have heard that the police and hospital accident & emergency departments can vouch for its significance in their lines of business (full moon = more trouble than usual).

Comedy clubs go all weird too.

I looove this projection for the $USD, just perfect. at 80 we would have oil at 105, gold at 730, silver at 10.80, eur/usd at 1.4300, and this would be the just a perfect bottom for commodities and everybody to buy in. I like this chart with triangle reversal, it would match with deflation ideas.

details: http://www.marketoracle.net/Article5932.html

Ker, I think this is more likely. See the simple trend line I have drawn

Interesting. Dec contract bounced off its May 06 highs and also straight off the trendline:

Yes, I was very impressed with that decision of theirs.

edit typo

Only problem is that gld has left a huge gap to go back and fill

Dont know if anyones following Rhodium

 

 

 

 

Breaking supports here, Platinum, Palladium also doing the same. Got to be the most interesting developments todate.

 

All eyes on OIL, the commodity leader. Just about resting on its 200 MA support

Great observation. Rhodium was the king of PMs

Obviously I'm not Steve but do you mean this one?

 

Perhaps it is a good sign that the Commercials are increasing their Long positions again. They have been relatively short for a long time and I think everybody (including myself) chose to ignore it.

Thanks Plastic. That's exactly what I menat. Many thanks.

COT still not as bullish s I'd like.

Steve,

I have asked you this before so apologies . What is the URL of that site which has the gold chart with the COT position underneath?

Thanks

CC

This is ugly, ugly, ugly. My sympathies to anyone who has silver on margin. Virtually every intermediate support level has gone. If we do not hold here, I believe we will see 730 very quickly. If it wasn't August I would be declaring the bull market over.

My goodness. This is the biggest wash-out I have ever seen in precious metals. All support levels have been broken.