frizzers
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Posts posted by frizzers
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Went into coin dealers in Guernsey this week to see about buying silver and waht deal was on VAT.
Silver closed Thur at £265 per kilo.
One dealer was selling kilos for £425 - and would only come down to £415.
The other for £353 and wouldn't budge.
When I suggested spot prices or similar, they just said if I could find anywhere that would sell at or close to spot, I was to tell them.
Gold was selling at much closer to spot
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FWIW I still think we will touch 850 one more time.
I have bought some gold in my trading account and will buy more at 850.
I missed a silver fill by 2c today. Annoying
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Let him speak. The chart will look better after one more retest of $850
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I think we have a major buyer for silver at 1650. Look at the support it has there. I can't believe I didn't notice it before. I think we might be about to get a run on silver.
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Dr Bubb and others that are interested, you can now trade options on GLD
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Thanks, Steve. Just the one I wanted.
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Steve,
A few months back you posted a chart of the gold price with the COT position on a mini graph underneath. Do you have a link to the source?
Thanks,
CC
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Looks like a giant A-B-C is nearly complete.
A big jump in Gold coming ??
Or, if you reverse it and do the silver gold;ratio we could be on wave III of V up?
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That is an unbelievable decline in Barratt. I kep looking at it thinking this can't go much lower and leaving it. I've not traded it nearly as well as I should have. But what is it saying about UK housing.
I remember sitting next to Bubb in an internet cafe in late 2006 looking at a chart and him saying, 'That thing could go to zero'. Well, well, well.
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Hey, goldbugs, check this out
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Nice upmove in the CDNX last few days in the face of declining SPX
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Firstly, in yesterday's Barnard Marcus auctions something like 50% went unsold. UNSOLD! In an auction. That is a huge statistic.
This is only anecdotal, and relates to Wandsworth Common where I live. It is one of those areas about which people endlessly say 'house prices'll never crash round here'.
1. Very little is shifting. For sale signs are staying for sale signs. Sometimes they are taken down. Very little is now under offer or sold, except in the area closer to Earlsfield which is more liquid and there are more flats.
2. Bloke next door is a major developer. He calculates that we are already 20% down off the 2007 peak. His own house for example was valued (not sold) at 1.9. It is now valued at 1.4. Over the road another family home was valued over 2 million in 2007. They can't sell it now for 1.4 and have gone multiple agency.
3. Close friend who lives further down the hill where houses were going for 550 at the peak has had an offer at 495 for her place.
And things haven't even got going yet
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From a poster on the ADVFN gold thread:
I have just been reading the archives of commentary at Kitco and I'm astounded at the museing of Jon Nadler Kitco's chief analyst. He never misses a chance to take a pop at gold and silver, in particular silver, and his writing have always a subtle but persistant doubtful tone. You could be forgiven for thinking that he works for the FED as he talks of an imminent recovery in the US with a near term riseing dollar and riseing interest rates.
This kind of distorted rehtoric in the face of over whelming evidence to the contrary is what we have come to expect from the FED, who afterall has only confidence to rely on. BUT from the chief PM analyst at Kitco, an organisation setup to sell and hold precious metals for investors!?
Something is very wrong here, I can accept that its important for Kitco to present a balanced view, but Nadler's comments are not balanced and have been consistantly incorrect, in the fact that things have got much worse for the economy and more postive for PMs. I wonder if you can't be positive for PMs now, with negative real interest rates , when can you be.
Something very wrong with Kitco and Nadler, it smells very fishy to me.
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When you read a comment that is negative to a rising gold price, remember Gibson’s Paradox: “When real interest rates (T-bills less CPI) are negative, gold will rise.” This will keep you invested, while the bull rises in saw-tooth manner, ‘up two and down one’. To quote Richard Russell: “He who buys the dips, and rides the waves, wins in the end.”
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1210313220.php
Goldfinger - did you get my email?
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I know AIM is sh*t. You know AIM is sh*t.
But a number of AIM resource juniors have really started to fly in recent weeks: among others Emed, Firestone, Caledon, Gulfsands. I think this bodes well.
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From August till March we were in a buy-and-hold market. My suspicion is that we are heading back into a traders'.
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Just some thoughts on gold and what's next ... A lot of technical stuff coming ...
I 've said this before, but ... Since this bull market in gold began in 2001, there have been repeating patterns. Gold has tended to surge up for six to nine months, then consolidate for a year to eighteen months.
This happened was very apparent in the move fro Aug 2005 ($430) through to May 2006 when gold hit 730. It then retraced back to 560 and effectively went up and down but sideways with a slight upward bias for over a year, pissed everyone off in the meantime, and eventually bottomed on August 16th 2007 at c. 650. It then surged up to 1020.
We have just enjoyed a 7-month move from $660 to $1020. I was hoping to see it go on for a month or two longer and $100-150 higher, but we have nevertheless had a good run.
But where will the bottom be?
430 to 730 was roughly a 1.7x move, $300. It then retraced $170 to c. $560. ($545 intraday). Just under half the move. (.56)
650 to 1020 is roughly a 1.6x move, $370. The retracement to c.$845 last week was $175 from the high (.46 of the move). A similar .56 retracement would have us down $207 at 816.
However, you could argue that this recent move has been less parabolic towards the end, so we can expect a slightly less dramatic retracement.
The 2005-06 retraced to just above the 200dma, though it touched it intraday. The 2007-8 move also retraced to just above the 200 dma.
What's more, because 850 is the old 1980 high, it is an obvious line of support.
My prediction is that we have seen the bottom just below 850, but that that bottom will be re-tested in the coming months, probably in August-September, or even October. I think now we are going to see a similar up-and-down but sideways with an upward bias pattern for the next year or so.
It wouldn't surprise me to see the next major leg up begin around April 2009.
I see the first line of resistance on that downtrend line just below 900. If we get through that we could bounce all the way to 960.
This is a chart showing the move from August 2005 to May 06 and the subsequent sideways pattern.
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We are in the post capitulation despair phase
http://www.moneyweek.com/file/45859/uraniu...-companies.html
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Just an observation, houses in the worse streets round my way seem to be down about 10% from their highs, while the better streets are seeing more of a stand-ff between buyer and seller. We are seeing properties coming off the market rather than accept lower offers. Stuff definitely staying on for considerably longer.
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So it's you who's holding the price down!
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Art is a way of storing wealth.
But I would suggest you have to look at what type of art thrives in a recession and what thrives in a boom.
Record picture prices signal the end of a boom.
Saatchi finds a young artist he likes, buys all his work and then promotes the heck out of him or her. There is a scacity of work and Saatchi's collection soars in value.
I've said it before, but comedy thrives most in a recession, as well as certain types of theatre. Look at the 1930s and the 1970s
SILVER
in Gold, FX, Stocks / Diaries & Blogs
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No VAT in Ch Islands