frizzers

Well that gap on gold got pretty much filled today.

CHART

Bubb, look at the dollar - http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$USD

It is over bought short term quite massively, but on the weekly chart it has formed a huge W bottom.

BTW Morgan thinks we are near a low

It has been busy to say the least, many have asked if this is THE bottom?

No one can state for certain but I will say I do think this is it, I have

been looking for a spike low in silver and gold. This is certainly a spike

low, the question becomes is this it and do we go up from here?

I think we do and now is a good time to finish your buying in metals, and

mining shares. I would want to see a few more days of trading to think

that my analysis is verified, but time will tell. My personal plan is to

be able to buy over the next two months. I did purchase some physical

silver today, and also bought PAAS and SLW on the open. I am off about 4%

on each of those by the close.

Bubb, look at the dollar - http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$USD

It is over bought short term quite massively, but on the weekly chart it has formed a huge W bottom.

IE over the last 5 years the average gain between August and year end has been 20%?

Great charts BTW

Some real danger here, as this chart shows:

 

 

source: http://www.kitco.com/ind/Wiegand/aug082008.html

 

Still, I was buying GLD calls

What is it in that chart that spells danger here, Dr? The close below the previous May low?

The danger being that we closed below the previous (May) low, albeit marginally?

Norcini's analysis ties in with Frisby's latest

LINK

Agree, Ker. 850 most probably by next Tue, assuming we get a mini bounce from here

PS I'm not sure I agree with Erik King on that Livermore quote. Livermore was a trend-follower, he followed the action on the tape , not fundamentals. On te basis of tape action Livermore would have been shorting juniors long ago.

From tomorrow's MM:

since 2000 there have been huge corrections in gold on an almost annual basis. There have more than 10 corrections of 10% or more. There have been 5 – yes, 5 - of 15% or more. Typically they are fast and violent. With silver the turbulence has been ever more bone-shaking. Bull markets are volatile. They try and throw you off. Hang on.

Well FWIW I bought a load more physical today

In the March sell-off - which this resembles - we got three big down days, then a bounce for three or four days, then another three down days.

It is possible, if not likely, that this pattern may repeat. In which case we get another down day tomorrow, a bounce and then a retest of 850.

The other thing to note is that Bear Sterns sold off a lot of gold in March as they met their margin calls. Then their famous announcement was made.

Has another big player gone bust here?

i would have thought jpm were selling either because they need the cash or they dont like investments like nrk nad A1racing

"open HF underlying RSS" what are you refering to here? i thought the master fund was a subsiduary of rss fund

thanks to gtcharlie on iii post 9/7/08 http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?cod...amp;action=list

throws some light but gives no idea of the nrk situation and omly list the n american cos

his data comes from http://www.secinfo.com/$/SEC/Document...2D+Schedule+13G

my suspicion is taht nrk is still held at cost and could be revalued at zero when all the dust has settled - a good reason for jpm to sell?

dak how much they paid for nrk??

Yes. Very possible

CDNX has broken down through support.

CHART

How depressing.

If it doesn't hold here we really are in shtook

This is a superb thread, Steve.

Can we duplicate that thread in the gol section?

Duly pinned. (Steve is a mod too btw)

Thanks for this. Very good.

If we can hold here or just below, that will be bullish I think. 950 is an area of support and we might be seeing a straight bounce off the 21 day moving average before the uptrend resumes.

There is trendline plus 55dma support at just below 920, so I guess a fall to there is possible.

Failing that we could go back and retest 850-60.

The violence of today's move was such that some more downside looks likely.

Bubb,

Co-incidently I was looking at hedge fund redemptions as a possible subject for this week's MM. Do you ming if I use some of your ideas?

It's a big retrace even to the 20 day moving average.

Bubb, what do you make of today's action?

I would like to have seen a close nearer to the high of the day.

Looks like CDNX has broken support to the downside.

A sad day