Euro Chocozone Buyer

So who is telling the truth?????????

Bangko Sentral ng Filipinas OR Colliers OR JLL????????

http://www.bsp.gov.ph/statistics/keystat/rrepi.htm

According the the Phil Central Bank property prices for condominium units declined in the NCR from 3Q2016 to 4Q2016. (122.17 to 119.80)

But according to Colliers the average square meter price for condiminium units in Makati increased. from 3Q2016 to 4Q2016

(Capital values increasing from PHP176200 to PHP1803000 from 3Q2016 to 4Q2016) (For all 3 main CBD they recorded 2.2, 2.2 and 1.1pct growth)

http://www.colliers.com/-/media/files/marketing%20reports/4q2016_colliers_quarterly_residential.pdf

And according to Colliers the rental rate dropped 3Q to 4Q 2016 but according to JLL the rental rates increased 3Q to 4Q 2016.

So what is one to make out of this? I am a little confused by all these conflicting reports.

I am tempted to believe that the index of the Philippine Central Bank is the most correct one... They probably included the price movements in the secondary

market in their index, and Colliers and certainly JLL hardly study the secondary market.

JLL s report is highly doubtful, IMO.

HELP me out please

The difference is 4pct. BSP recorded a 2pct decline and Coll/JLL recorded a 2pct rise.

Hi

The 4Q report from JLL is just out. (on may 3rd)

For 4Q 2016 they say rents and capital values continued to rise.

So this report clearly contradicts Collliers... I still believe Colliers to be more correct on this,

What JLL states in this report -- and how they get and analyze the data -- is a big question mark for me.

http://www.ap.jll.com/asia-pacific/en-gb/research/872/philippine-property-digest-4q16#.WQ3q2NSLTGg

"""

On another note, the Philippine peso depreciation in 4Q16 is likely to continue in 2017. This scenario increases the spending power of OF families for residential units, which would support demand for residential units. Further, by end-2017, the BSP forecasts stable growth of OF remittances

"""

They also expect remittances to rise. For 2017 and beyond -- this will be very difficult to achieve IMO

as USA is already in a recession and I am afraid it will get a lot worse.

Look at auto sales/retail bankruptcies/stagnant wage growth and other indicators in USA.

And I also expect the USD to weaken against all currencies as the FED will panic and launch

another round of QE later this year. This is why the USD is suddenly out of favor.

The market no longer believes the Yellen Fed and her promise of rising rates.

So this will have a major effect on the preselling market. Existing owners need not fear

too much as most of them can always convert their units into hotel rooms and

get a higher yield thru short term rentals.

inflation is now already running at 3.4pct and that is lot and it will help to stabilize prices

as new contruction becomes increasingly more expensive.

http://www.philstar.com/business/2017/05/06/1697026/inflation-steady-3.4-april-bsp-keep-rates-unchanged

The USA jobs report was a disaster according to David Krantzler.

http://investmentresearchdynamics.com/another-fraudulent-jobs-report/

https://dailyreckoning.com/greatest-ponzi-scheme-history/

Another warning from James Richards

http://www.manilatimes.net/mmanila-condos-shrink-to-shoebox-sizes/239856/

The Chinese Yuan may come under pressure...

With all the banking problems and bad loans, Kyle Bass expects the Yuan to be the "arbiter"

or what Axel Merk calls "the valve"

If a big devaluation in the Yuan is coming, it will impact HK and HK Property IMO

so this is something to watch,

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2017-05-02/hayman-s-kyle-bass-on-china-s-economy-global-risks-video

For those of you who haven't seen the growth in private debt for China (and HK), it is alarming. Here is the chart.

https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/china/household-debt

Household debt rose 1000pct in 10 years. It is a bubble on steriods, and it will not end well.

China -- and probably HK -- will never recover from this disaster IMO.

Rental price data based on Lamudi ads

http://www.lamudi.com.ph/journal/price-guide-condos-rent-metro-manila-2017/

(following image added in edit, by DrB.):

This article was written a few years ago, but still valid IMO.

http://www.bworldonline.com/content.php?section=Opinion&title=makati-condo-bubble&id=97570

https://www.numbeo.com/property-investment/gmaps_rankings_country.jsp?indexToShow=getAffordabilityIndex&title=2017

Yes this is confirmed by the affordibility index...

Time to take to the USA?????????????

Here s another link where you can see the price to income ratio for property markets around the globe.

USA is the big surprise here. It is relatively cheap -- on a price to income ratio -- compared with the rest of the world.

USA 3.26 Canada 6.40 Belgium 6.90 Germany 7.46 Norway 7.90 Holland 8.52 Australia 9.24 UK 10 France 11.58 Sweden 11.77 Italy 12.39 Switzerland 14

(But that is just a broad average I guess; it is more expensive in the big cities and relatively cheap in the countryside in USA I guess)

Asian countries Malaysia 9.53 South Korea 12.38 Philippines 16.91 Indonesia 21 Singapore 21.60 China 23.29 Thailand 24.43 VNM 26 HK 36.15

USA housing is extremely affordable, and HK housing is extremely unaffordable. That is the message here.

https://www.numbeo.com/property-investment/rankings_by_country.jsp

Colliers 1Q 2017 -- a snapshot

"""

In the residential sector, luxury three-bedroom condominium units remain in demand amid rising vacancies in the low to mid-level condominiums. Residential capital values continue to rise as rents are slowly declining """

http://www.colliers.com/-/media/files/apac/asia/collierscmis_marketsnapshots_q117.pdf

http://www.philstar.com/business/2017/05/01/1695476/nomura-hikes-gdp-growth-2017-2018

I think the main risk will be a sharp downturn in the global economy, which might reduce the growth of remittances,

and which could/might severely impact the preselling market. I am less worried about vacancies as many

owners of flats have in fact entered the tourist industry by renting out their units on a very short term basis, (daily/weekly)

i.e. operating it as a hotel room. (pls check the ads on AirBnB).

Yes I know one Filipino acquitance who went thru the 2007-2009-2013 Real Estate bust in southern USA where her home

lost close to USD1Million in value. That experience got the best of her. Since 2013 she has been warning

me about the PH real estate bubble...

Hi

There is a "rush sale" going on for one of these Acqua CPG units by Rob Luat.

For Sale:

1) Acqua Private Residences: Mandaluyong / 2 Bedroom / Unfurnished / Brand New / Php 5.8M only (Below Market Price)

https://www.facebook.com/robluat?fref=ts

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10155222080696096&set=pcb.10155222082261096&type=3&theater

And this former Megaworld agent apparently also sold the 1Br Greenbelt hamilton unit

which you can still see on his website dreamcityhp.com -- below the market price --

because it is no longer available on his recent facebook page update.

For Sale 2 Bedroom at Acqua Private Residences Mandaluyong

- 2 Bedroom
- 44 SQM
- Unfurnished
- BRAND NEW
- Php 5.8M

He also has a Salcedo Square (40sqm) unit for sale which declined in value

in about 2 weeks from 6.9M to 6.7M. That is still PHP167.500 per sq meter, however.

Hi

The blogger from the systemisbroken.com --- again --- surprisingly remarks that maybe the system is NOT broken as

"""ASEAN house prices, in general, may have more room to run if incomes continue to grow and that growth is evenly distributed.

So it looks to me as if PH has further momentum to the upside,

However, he measures income by GDP, and I don t know if that is a general rule that is applied by most economists.

More data would be needed to confirm these income data.

I am sure that the Goldmans Sachses of the world are looking at Indonesia, PH and emerging Africa where they

can practice debt slavery, because it seems the Western world's ageing populations are tapped out. (e.g. Singapore)

This is why the "so called PH" bubble is sustainable, -- as incomes rise and more people join the work force,

you get a lot more purchasing power. It is far healthier than a price rise caused by lowered interest rates.

http://systemisbroken.blogspot.com/2017/04/have-asean-house-prices-kept-up-with.html

But Japan seems to have an inverse cycle....

18 down years and 4-5 up years???

http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/japan-real-estate-bubble-home-prices-back-30-years-zero-percent-mortgage-rates/

Laureano di Trevi -- "what a difficult (to write and pronounce) name" -- only Italians will be able to spell (and pronounce) that right --

There is 1 rush sale and 2 foreclosed units in this building.

The "rush" sale is for about PHP120K per square meter:

https://www.olx.ph/item/rush-sale-one-bedroom-condo-at-laureano-di-trevi-tower-ID7Q7BR.html?h=0e563d1a81

The 2 foreclosed units are for about PHP110K per square meter

https://www.olx.ph/item/foreclosed-condominium-unit-in-laureano-di-trevi-tower-1-makati-city-ID7I2dv.html?h=0e563d1a81

It is quite amazing that this developer (Vista Land) has raised his price so much since the launch,

because neighboring San Lorenzo Place Emp/East price was hardly increased and it has (much) better connections.

As an aside, many developers are now building smaller units to compensate for the increased land acquisition costs,

SMDC coast residences has 24sq meter units for the same price as the 27sq meter Breeze residences units,

and the 27sq meter Breeze units were the same price as the 30 sq meter sea/shell residences units about 5 years ago,

so the unit size is getting smaller for the same amount of pesos. (you're getting less for the same amount)

https://dailyreckoning.com/euro-stronger-think/

From James Richards.

So it is possible IMO that the EurPhp will move higher to 58-60 area which is the late 2013-2014 highs.

Excerpts

This brings the total to 19 member countries. I expect other countries will join in the years ahead, including Scotland, Croatia, and the Czech Republic.Since the European sovereign debt crisis emerged in early 2010, not a single member country has left the euro

investors who look past the negative publicity can reap huge gains as the euro positions itself for a major rally starting this summer.

Another video - warning about the possible "toxic" nature of foreclosures...

Well it was mentioned here before,

He's a video about buying foreclosures properties in PH.

Yes

This data is quite interesting.

==

> https://www.ceicdata.../household-debt

When you look at the Singapore data, you see that household debt peaked around 2013-2014 and that was also the time that their real estate peaked.

For Hong Kong you see a continued uptrend, which explains why HK has had rising real estate.

And for China, Household debt has grown about 10fold in 10 years time. Here is your real estate bubble explained according to Steve Keen.

I find that quite amazing, as the average age is becoming higher in China and elderly are less likely to get loans. It means that they borrow until (just before) they die.

They obviously do not see the risks of credit, and believe it to be the "manna" of heaven.

Maybe this is why Kyle Bass is so bearish on China and Malaysia.

For PH, I remember having read an article in one of KMC Savills publications a few years ago that many developers did not like the 40pc downpayment limit imposed by BSP on real estate loan for private individuals, but if this rule is enforced than it will help to combat bubbles and overleverage.

Yes I am a bit worried that more foreigners will come and eventually the authorities might impose foreign buyer and seller taxes/levies/fees on real estate transactions in PH

. This is not for tomorrow but the seeds are sown already. We are still quite undiscovered in my opinion.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-22/china%E2%80%99s-credit-excess-unlike-anything-world-has-ever-seen

Hi

Prof Steve Keen is obviously on to something. At the latter stages/ end of the bubble, there is massive built up of private debt,

and I am glad that we have seen it here for some countries. It is obviously Mainland China which is the biggest bubble today

and it is even an emerging market. That's Harry Dent's idea as well. This is the biggest bubble today.

All the countries listed in that zero hedge article had massive property bubbles at the same time.

And Oh, they forgot Canada, because Canada did not develerage after 2008. They gorged on this.

Can you/Do you check/follow the growth of private debt in PH? It is the rapid growth of private debt which might indicate

that the end is near.

The population - price rise myth

In this video professor Keen - an Australian - explains that it is credit growth -- bigger mortgages -- which leads to higher prices,

and this is a big problem in the developed world, and even some Asian and Asean countries. But I believe Indonesia and PH

have relatively low debt levels, because their incomes are not that high at the moment, but as they gradually develop into higher

income economies, this would normally lead to bigger borrowings and higher prices.

That is my understanding of this video. I have seen other charts in this forum which show that the debt levels in PH and IND are

relatively low compared with the rest of Asean/Asia. It is a cycle that these countries will go thru just like all the other Asean/Asian

countries which have also experienced this, -- and the spending wave correlates with the income wave, IMO.

Lastly prof Keen only looks at the total population, but I believe we should look at the 35-45 year old age group,

because this are the main property buyers, and he didn't look into that. Kids cannot buy and older people are sellers of property.

So he needs to come up with better/more accurate data to prove that "more people higher prices" myth is wrong.

http://systemisbroken.blogspot.com

It is unclear to me if these sales are in the primary and/or secondary market, or just licenses to sell issued by a government agency to the various developers.

I am a bit confused. Also the EX-NCR indexes are still (mostly) rising.

Matt Wilkie, Live on youtube

A few questions were asked during that live event. Apparantly he's got a service

station and around 6 apartments/flat in that same building in the Cebu area I believe.

He does not recommend buying a 3,5Million flat and getting 20K rental income

as the income is not guaranteed. He says be careful of agents...

That's what others have told here as well

He says he's doing fairly well with income in PH, Spain and UK.

And another video of this British guy,

now about starting a bed spacer rental business

And another video from an American expat called Kevin Sanders

I believe he's against the idea of "hedging" your wealth by buying properties in PH,

yet "hedging" is a strategy that is employed by a lot of foreign investors IMO.

I have read several posts on SSC and the main purpose of buying PH properies

-- for some posters -- is just the "hedge".