drbubb Posted October 26, 2010 Report Share Posted October 26, 2010 "IWM should drop by a larger %" Yes, we could see that now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted October 27, 2010 Author Report Share Posted October 27, 2010 I've sold the calls of my FXE straddle leaving just the puts. Are all markets going through a turn process right now? Reaction to the next Fed meeting may provide the answer. It may be worth noting that IWM bottomed on 24th August, before either SPY or QQQQ. IWM is now giving indications of divergence away from SPY and QQQQ at this part of the rally; IWM in red, SPY in blue and QQQQ in green. IWM also topped before the other two in both June and late July... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted October 27, 2010 Author Report Share Posted October 27, 2010 I've been going through some daily timeframe charts using my TB indicator on various underlyings; I'll be trading it on longer term timeframes from now on since I'm not around for the first part of the trading day for short term intraday ones, for some reason all the killer intraday ones seem to happen early on in the day, I can't comprehend why that may be. It's extremely intensive constantly cycling through intraday charts through huge lists of stocks for hours and hours looking for entries so I'm sticking to daily timeframe charts from here on in. This one here, Goldman Sachs, the double top formed before the close on 15/04/10, a double top being the signal to sell (once the second top has touched the level of the first one and turned around) the next day the price collapsed. That one I put more down to coincidence but the TB indicator still picked it out. I only wish I had this a long time ago. Main point to note is that a double top may again be forming, not quite there yet but perhaps in the next few days. The black line needs to move down and away from the red line, and not pass through it. This is DIA (ETF for Dow Jones Industrial Average). Again a double top is forming but not quite complete. Next up Sears Holdings Corporation (SHLD), a double top sell signal has been generated on that today. Next up Adobe (ADBE), double top not quite formed, perhaps in the next few days. Also highlighted two other examples where price trend and indicator trend diverge, only for the price to break towards the trend of the diverging indicator. This is USO, ETF for Crude oil, I'm just showing this as the previous entries were stunning points to go long or short, picked out again by TB. Here on FXA, interesting the buy signal was generated before the close on 1st September, highly correlated with equities of course. There were imprecise double tops in both January and April, wouldn't have been strong enough to warrant a trade but picked out the turns nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted October 29, 2010 Author Report Share Posted October 29, 2010 I checked the position of the top 100 in the S&P500 and the 100 that make up the NASDAQ to identify any other TB indicator double top sell signals. Norfolk Sothern Corp (NSC) and Henry Shein Inc (HSIC) were identified yesterday as having given double top sell signals, I bought puts on NSC. I didn't get time to post the charts. What I find potentially significant is that there are a high number of stocks where a TB double top will be formed if we get a general down day today. IThe more that happen together may mean that a broader market sell off is more likely. The TB indicator looks like it's going to be given a strict test over the next few days. I will post all of these new ones that are formed today, later on. Sears Holdings Corporation (SHLD) suffered an approx 3% drop following the sell signal I gave on 27/10/10. I spotted it after the close therefore didn't have the opportunity to exploit that particular one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted October 29, 2010 Author Report Share Posted October 29, 2010 A double top sell signal has been generated on my proprietary TB indicator for SPY Although I've not shown the previous ones on this particular chart my indicator has picked out turning points before and it seems to work quite well. See if you can pick out the other times. I need to run some serious statistics at the weekend to get a proper ratio but I think it could be as high as 7 or 8 times out of 10. The double top or bottom has to be either level, or very close to it, to be confirmed as a valid sell or buy signal. A sell signal was already generated for IWM a few days ago. It's worth noting that previous sell signals have been very close to some form of top. This is not 100% guaranteed (nothing is) however statistically it works to a relatively high degree, it's also worth noting that where it has given a sell signal before, sometimes it's taken a number of days of chopping around before the market moves down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted October 29, 2010 Author Report Share Posted October 29, 2010 Double top TB sell signals have been generated on the following stocks today; Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) AT&T (T) News Corporation (NWSA) Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Dell (DELL) Cisco (CSCO) Chevron (CVX) Boeing (BA) Gilead Sciences (GILD) Dupont (DD), note I've highlighted a previous double top that did not work (at least not from the off, like previous examples in this thread) this previous double top has to be declared a failed signal since the stop would have had to be unrealistically wide, following the initial signal when price was 37.87, price moved as high as 40.12 before the move lower) Devon Energy (DVN) - EDIT, the sell signal was actually generated on 19/10/10 for this one, that was the day following the recent high Yesterday's sell signals were Norfolk Southern Corp (NSC) and Henry Shein Inc (HSIC). NSC is 61.49 (+1.15%) today and HSIC is 56.15 (-4.21%) today. Normally I would be taking these as shorts however since I have both IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) and SPY double top sell signals it makes more sense to use one of these. I doubled my short position on IWM today, if there is some form of fall or correction in the market IWM could fall by a great % since it outperformed the broader market on the way up. I should note that there were some other borderline ones, I've left them out, since I want to stick with only the ones that conform to the absolute definition of a double top or double bottom. Needless to say I didn't find any double bottoms out of any of the S&P top 100 or NASDAQ 100 today (or yesterday for that matter). There are a number of stocks where TB double tops may form next week, these are; IBM not yet complete MSFT not yet complete ATVI not yet complete LOGI not yet complete MSFT not yet complete RIMM not yet complete Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted October 30, 2010 Author Report Share Posted October 30, 2010 Typing error in post 30, two sentences from the end, it should read; It's worth noting that previous sell signals have been very close to some form of top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted November 1, 2010 Author Report Share Posted November 1, 2010 SPY sell signal shaping up to be invalidated today (breach of double top) Unless it breaks down sharply before the close VRTX currently still a technical sell signal AT&T sell signal currently invalidated NWSA sell signal currently invalidated JNJ sell signal currently invalidated DELL currently still a technical sell signal CSCO currently still a technical sell signal CVX currently still a technical sell signal BA currently still a technical sell signal GILD sell signal currently invalidated DD sell signal currently invalidated IWM currently still a technical sell signal (unlikely to change before the close) There was a double top short signal given on SPY at 5.54 pm Not taken as I'm short enough on IWM already, the sell point was right at an intraday high point - nice EDIT - there seems to be some form of break down now so I'll re-assess signals again before the close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted November 1, 2010 Author Report Share Posted November 1, 2010 At the close today; SPY sell signal now invalidated VRTX still a technical sell signal AT&T sell signal now invalidated NWSA sell signal now invalidated JNJ sell signal now invalidated DELL still a technical sell signal CSCO still a technical sell signal CVX still a technical sell signal BA still a technical sell signal GILD sell signal now invalidated DD sell signal now invalidated IWM remains a sell signal Also, I'm watching GDX as there may be a potential double top forming; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted November 1, 2010 Author Report Share Posted November 1, 2010 I decided to take a look back to see how my TB indicator would have performed during some historic moments. Here is TB working on USO covering the period when Crude oil made it's all time high; TB indicator gave a sell signal on 14th July 2008, one day after it's all time high There were no other sell signals, other than late October 2008 (not indicated), and no buy signals for the rest of the year Here is the 2008 period for SPY TB indicator gave a sell signal on 9th June 2008 when the price closed at 129.18, that's 7 points below the high of the year, 136.36 United States Steel Sell signal on 30th June 2008 several points below it's all time closing high of 189. I also looked back at the March 2009 lows for SPY, IWM, and QQQQ, however it did not catch the low in any of those cases, no signal was generated. There is a huge sense of irony here for me, and that is, I have heard countless times that it isn't possible to pick tops and bottoms. I hope in my continuation of this thread to prove that sometimes, it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted November 2, 2010 Author Report Share Posted November 2, 2010 So far today VRTX still a technical sell signal DELL still a technical sell signal CSCO still a technical sell signal CVX still a technical sell signal BA still a technical sell signal The IWM sell signal looks like it will be invalidated by the close today, although there's not much in it at this point. I may close out half the position before the close. EDIT - IWM sell signal invalidated - puts sold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted November 7, 2010 Author Report Share Posted November 7, 2010 I'm doing a study of my indicator using the top 100 stocks in the S&P500 over the last year - the charts are located here I counted a total of 185 buy or sell signals. 137 were correct, 48 were not. That works out at a 74% hit rate - not bad. I had originally thought it was 7 or 8 out of 10 so that fits with my initial feelings. When I have more time I'll do the NASDAQ and then maybe a range of sector ETFs too, to see how that works out. Following that I may look at my signals in combination with something else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted November 9, 2010 Author Report Share Posted November 9, 2010 Sell signal generated on TLT on Friday, only checked TLT today so didn't spot it at the time. I already have a long-dated position in TBT but added more puts today for a short term trade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted November 11, 2010 Author Report Share Posted November 11, 2010 TB sell signals generated on the following today, I went through the S&P 100; AA AES ALL AEP AXP T CL CVS GE HON INTC JNJ JPM MS ROK TGT UTX That's 17 out of the top 100, quite a few. I am away from home and unable to post charts right now. A few days ago I got a sell signal on TLT, so bought calls on TBT. Now I also have a sell signal on LQD, the bond plot thickens. Out of the above the most interesting candidates, from a technical standpoint, appear to be HON, JPM and UTX. I am already technically short JPM due to my physical silver position however if that story grows further the price could be in for a nose-dive, that may not happen so fast, that story may well drag on over time so I'll leave that for now. Honeywell looks vulnerable to a break downwards at this point, UTX perhaps also however the worst looking chart is most certainly LQD, it appears to be sitting on a previously significant support level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ret45 Posted November 11, 2010 Report Share Posted November 11, 2010 TB sell signals generated on the following today, I went through the S&P 100; AA AES ALL AEP AXP T CL CVS GE HON INTC JNJ JPM MS ROK TGT UTX That's 17 out of the top 100, quite a few. I am away from home and unable to post charts right now. A few days ago I got a sell signal on TLT, so bought calls on TBT. Now I also have a sell signal on LQD, the bond plot thickens. Out of the above the most interesting candidates, from a technical standpoint, appear to be HON, JPM and UTX. I am already technically short JPM due to my physical silver position however if that story grows further the price could be in for a nose-dive, that may not happen so fast, that story may well drag on over time so I'll leave that for now. Honeywell looks vulnerable to a break downwards at this point, UTX perhaps also however the worst looking chart is most certainly LQD, it appears to be sitting on a previously significant support level. Good call on today's action. LQD could be very interesting to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted November 12, 2010 Author Report Share Posted November 12, 2010 Good call on today's action. LQD could be very interesting to watch. I have now doubled my position in LQD. The result is I have 10% of my trading capital tied up short corporate and government bonds, using both LQD and TBT. I should point out that my indicator provides what I call a window of opportunity, the window could be open for 1,2,3, 7 or more days. The future is undetermined so I have to go with the most likely outcome. LQD appears to have topped early October, SPY may have topped early November. Greater % gains were seen today in the other shorts (17 of 100), it is unclear whether equities are in a new trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted November 15, 2010 Author Report Share Posted November 15, 2010 I have now doubled my position in LQD. The result is I have 10% of my trading capital tied up short corporate and government bonds, using both LQD and TBT. I should point out that my indicator provides what I call a window of opportunity, the window could be open for 1,2,3, 7 or more days. The future is undetermined so I have to go with the most likely outcome. LQD appears to have topped early October, SPY may have topped early November. Greater % gains were seen today in the other shorts (17 of 100), it is unclear whether equities are in a new trend. The puts on LQD and calls on TBT are working out so far, the 17 sell signals I had on stocks; AA AES ALL AEP AXP T CL CVS GE HON INTC JNJ JPM MS ROK TGT UTX All are sideways or lower aside from CL, INTC, JNJ and JPM. I'm sure QE2 has spurred lots of retail traders/investors to get back into the market, perhaps that's putting a floor under stocks for now. LQD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted November 15, 2010 Author Report Share Posted November 15, 2010 From the NASDAQ 100, TB sell signals generated either yesterday or today on; BBBY CELG CEPH INTC MCHP WYNN SIAL SPLS was a sell signal a number of days ago, EXPE was a sell signal on 11/11/10 I'll post the charts from the NASDAQ 100 tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted November 16, 2010 Author Report Share Posted November 16, 2010 I was stopped out of my LQD trade today for a nice profit, same for my TBT, although I've kept the longer dated calls on TBT. Today I bought puts on EEM; Sell signal was on 11th November However also noticed sell signals on MA and V. It would seem Mastercard, Visa and American Express get sold quickly during sell offs. Mastercard TB sell 11th Nov American Express TB sell 11th Nov Visa TB sell 11th Nov If I see a good point tomorrow I may get into one of these, no guarantee sell the off continues though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted November 17, 2010 Author Report Share Posted November 17, 2010 Got out of EEM today, for a very small loss. The sell signal was 11th November, should only take trades where the sell has been generated within 24 hours. I checked all the signals I found on the NASDAQ 100 over the last year. There were 152 signals, of those 124 were correct. That's a 81.5% hit rate. I had to count over and over again just to check it was right. The charts can be found here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted November 18, 2010 Author Report Share Posted November 18, 2010 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted November 24, 2010 Author Report Share Posted November 24, 2010 Scanned through a list of 360 stocks with options that move in 1 cent increments this evening (phew!); Found 26 buy signals; QQQQ CELG FSLR ADP DCTH DOW FIS FLEX HSBC JNJ JNPR MRK PBR RMBS RTN SBUX SPWRA SU UPS URE WFR WFT XLB XLF XLV XOP No sell signals whatsoever Went long QQQQ and FSLR PBR is something I was looking to hold longer term so may also take a position in that very soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted December 2, 2010 Author Report Share Posted December 2, 2010 Scanned through a list of 360 stocks with options that move in 1 cent increments this evening (phew!); Found 26 buy signals; QQQQ CELG FSLR ADP DCTH DOW FIS FLEX HSBC JNJ JNPR MRK PBR RMBS RTN SBUX SPWRA SU UPS URE WFR WFT XLB XLF XLV XOP No sell signals whatsoever Went long QQQQ and FSLR PBR is something I was looking to hold longer term so may also take a position in that very soon. All of these bar 2 are higher since posting. More signals were generated on 01/12/10, all buys taken from S&P100; ABT CVX GILD GS JPM NWSA T I additionally went long ABT, GILD and GS. Lets see how this goes. Apologies if my posting is a bit on the sparse side but I'm still trying to figure out the best way to play this system. Eg If I get signals on 26 one day do I take them all? Do I split my position down, it's a problem I'm working on right now, further complicated by the use of options. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perishabull Posted December 8, 2010 Author Report Share Posted December 8, 2010 Dropped ABT and GILD, not performing as expected. QQQQ, FSLR and GS doing ok though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted December 9, 2010 Report Share Posted December 9, 2010 The puts on LQD and calls on TBT are working out so far, the 17 sell signals I had on stocks; AA, AES ,,, etc. All are sideways or lower aside from CL, INTC, JNJ and JPM. I'm sure QE2 has spurred lots of retail traders/investors to get back into the market, perhaps that's putting a floor under stocks for now. LQD Nice call on: LQD-puts, TBT-calls... I think QE2 is not working as designed, and maybe sometime soon equity markets will wake up to that. TLT / T-Bond etf ... update TLT has been falling steadily since late September. Look how the 21d.MA rolled over back in mid-October, and has steadily moved down. I expect that volumes on the lows will dry up before we see a final low here. Currently, the volume on low days remains strong. THESE RISING RATES are NOT supposed to be happening, if the Fed's QE2 policy was working as designed ! The Dollar has benefitted from rising rates UUP / US Dollar, 2X leveraged ... update The Dollar has shown a nice upturn, confirmed by the rising BigMo / 21d.MA. But I must point out that the volume on the rises is so far unconvincing, and so this rally mabe vulnerable. Above excerpt if from my Dairy today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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