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I saw DrBubb's posting on SP, and it was funny to read that they thought he was "a visitor from HPC, winding them up".

 

Kevin Reeves :

"Interesting to see a HPC poster on here! You on for the wind up DrBub?

 

There is no hard and fast rule that can be used for the UK Market, the UK market is really now a set of sub-markets with prices plummeting in some areas and rising in others. In Sleaford, Lincs for example getting a sale at all is damn near impossible regardless of the price, go twenty minutes down the road to Newark and houses are selling fast and prices are rising slightly.

 

To generalise and say that prices are on the verge of plummeting into the abyss is absurd and makes you sound like a real amatuer in the property world, basing your argument on mainstream facts and figures is also pointless and these are only really indices and none are truly representative of the market."

 

Dr Bubb :

If you read HPC, you may know that I do not post there anymore.

 

If if you want to find my historical forecasts, you may need to visit sites like: Global Property Cycles (dotcom) or even look around on SP itself.

 

I would be interested in hearing your logic for why HOUSE PRICES WILL NOT FALL. I see plenty of evidence that this is happening. The recent 3.6% falling reported in one of the most widely followed indices is a fairly clear signal that market sentiment is turning fast.

 

I am expecting falls averaging 0.5-1.0% per month over maybe 2-3 years. And the slide could be faster than that.

 

BTL investors have benefitted from lower interest rates, rising rents, and rising capital values since the BofE panicked and cut rates in late 2008/ early 2009. All three of those favorable factors may be about to reverse. And so, if I was a BTL investor in the UK I would be "lightening up" aggressively, and getting out of debt. In fact, I have done so with my own BTL portfolio in HK, and am now "long cash", and awaiting better opportunities.

 

NO INDICES ARE TRULY REPRESENTATIVE of the market?

 

Then what do they represent? Prices on the planet Mars? I think you need to be careful. When there is money at stake, it is easy to delude yourself.

###

 

Is Bubb inviting SP posters to come to GPC ?

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Visitors from SingingPig can post here too - So long as they stay respectful.

 

And if so, they will deserve a respectful response to.

 

IN FACT, on that same thread, there was a post from a poster called Richard Greenhill, who writes a property Blog, and talks about the difficulties in Forecasting on that Blog:

 

 

There is an ongoing discussion on propertytribes titled: Do you think property prices will double over the next 10 to 15 years and if so why?

 

Which leads me to ask another question, is this something property developers/ investors can reasonably expect to predict, and should they even try?

 

Predictions tend to get made by looking at present conditions on the ground and extrapolating from them based on past trends. Personally I’m sceptical about this methodology. Anyone who applied it to buying shares right at the end of the last century will be woefully disappointed by now. Yet in property there are still some otherwise clever people saying things like ‘Property prices double every ten to fifteen years’, or even ‘Eight years’ in the case of someone on singingpig.

 

What they overlook is that there’s no rule that things will happen in the future just because similar things happened in the past. They may happen, or they may not. Allowances have to be made for the odd Black Swan.

 

Read more: http://pimlico-flats.co.uk/blog/news/can-w.../#ixzz139z8ldOq

== ==

 

I don't agree with method of forecasting he describes, which sounds like projecting straight-line trends.

I think he needs to get his mind around how cycles work.

 

But it might be interesting to have a discussion here about how to Forecast property prices.

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I suppose I should not give up easily on SP. Here's another exchange:

 

Vanessa Warwick*:

Hi Dr. Bubb,

 

Whilst I appreciate and respect your concerns about "bubbles", this advert is strikingly similar to the other courses your dismiss. "Time tested system", "spectacular profits", etc. Another GRQ marketing letter, just another angle that no guru here has thought of ... yet.

 

He talks about local markets, and these are entirely micro, so I doubt if his method could be very accurate in reality.

 

If markets do occur in cycles, then if you purchase throughout the entire cycle, it will all average out, surely? As long as you ensure positive net cash flow, and you are in it for the long term, you can "ride out" the cycles. I believe they are more relevant to short term "speculators".

 

If you are craving some intellectual debate and robust discussion, then you might want to join in >>> here. You would be most welcome! :)

 

DrBubb:

Did you listen to the podcast(s), Vanessa?

 

He had it right in 2008, and I reckon he has it right in 2010 too.

 

You talk about "micro-markets"...

 

Is the entire United States a micro-market? In which case, the UK must be a sub-micro-market, and Greater London a nano-market.

 

My experience is that markets within a single interest rate and economic environment tend to move together. So California and almost the entire US peaked within a few months of Los Angeles. You will see that, if you look at the US data from Case-Shiller. Only a tiny number of cities briefly battled the downturn that spread across the country from 2005/6. There was only a meager bounce that came after rates were cut in late 2008/9. And that bounce is done now.

 

People in the UK have had to worry little about cycles until now. The downturn that started to hit the whole country in the second half of 2007 and continued into 2009, was only saved by the deep cut in interest rates (Quantitative Easing) in late 2008.

 

That was basically a tactic endorsed by the BofE and the Labour party to try to save its election chances by propping up UK property prices and the economy into the election. Savers are being robbed to "bail out" property speculators. If you did not own property, you might agree that this was reckless, bad for the UK economy in the long run, and especially bad for First Time Buyers.

 

A new policy towards property is beginning to emerge from the Coalition government, and I think you will find that cyclical forces begin to work again. The chances of a price slide will be especially high in Great London where the overvaluation of properties are most pronounced, and where public sector jobs get cut, while rental subsidies are chopped.

 

So maybe it is time to get off the old ("over-promoted"?) BMV bandwagon, and start learning about property cycles.

 

Who knows, the next great teacher of this useful technique might emerge from SP's membership.

 

/see: http://www.singingpig.co.uk/forums/1122290...ad.aspx#1122290

== == ==

 

*BTW, I don't know what this means: Co-founder of Property Tribes forum

(It looks like everyone posting on SP has a sideways activity.)

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*BTW, I don't know what this means: Co-founder of Property Tribes forum

(It looks like everyone posting on SP has a sideways activity.)

That's Vanessa Warwick's own property forum:

http://propertytribes.ning.com/

 

(Don't ask me what "ning" might be)

 

Ironically enough, some PT members now seem to be launching their own separate website, "Yulpa":

http://propertytribes.ning.com/forum/topic...der-member-of-1

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YULPA?

5078043214_f49f2b6cc8_o.jpg

 

Yulpa is the new sister site to Property Tribes and is set to launch in early 2011. Yulpa is the brainchild of Nick Tadd, and two Berkeley graduates Ushan Ganeshanathan and Taj Udden, who are also property investors.

 

... interesting way to monetise traffic on a chatboard...

 

Yulpa is, however, far more than property management software. It has been likened to an on-line property "filo-fax" but is much easier to use, far more relevant to your property business and will provide tangible returns for you. It is the property management system that everyone tells us they want, but cannot find on the market - until now.

 

More than that, this killer "app" will be mobile!

 

This is only a small snapshot of what Yulpa can and will do to make your property life smarter.

 

Because we believe in the wisdom of crowds, we wanted to give you, the community, the chance to get involved with Yulpa at a grass-roots level.

 

We are allocating 100 Founder Member places for Yulpa and we'd like YOU to consider being a Founder Member for a nominal financial input of £250.00. This crowd funding is to take the code to the next level with a view to Yulpa going live early in 2011.

 

The 100 Founder Members will become the "inner circle" of Yulpa and we have many great benefits lined up to give your property business exposure within the Property Tribes and Yulpa networks (if you require that). As Yulpa will be a subscription based site with entry level at under £10.00 per month, we have also built in an income generating opport*unity which is detailed below.

Here is a reminder of the Yulpa Founder Member benefits:

 

For a one-off financial input of £250.00 you get:

 

1. Lifetime membership of Yulpa. *Excluding any third party fees.

 

2. Specially branded avatar and profile highlighting you as a

“Founder Member”.

 

3. Enhanced visibility in the Property Tribes/Yulpa network. Including:

i) Member “Spotlight” interview or video interview;

ii) Mentions in newsletters and broadcasts to the network.

iii) Help with publicising their events across the network.

iv) Preferred partner within the network.

 

4. Support in starting a local “property tribe” networking event to help build your own local network. Nick/V to speak at your events etc. You keep the revenue from your events. Events to be promoted via the network (as above). Yulpa members can also speak at each other’s events and advocate each other’s businesses.

 

5. A monthly “Virtual Boardroom” – you will be invited to contribute ideas to the future of Yulpa. (Format of this TBC and may develop over time into a monthly off-line event).

 

6. 20% residual commission for each new member you introduce to the Yulpa subscription programme.

 

There are genuinely only 100 Founder Member places and we have already allocated over 25 of them. If you were not able to attend the private Yulpa Launch at the Property Investor Show or you would like to speak to us if you have any questions, please call Nick on 07918 684602 for further details.

 

/see: http://propertytribes.ning.com/forum/topic...der-member-of-1

== ==

 

Are they struggling to get members?

 

Pds.250 x 100 = Pds. 25,000 start-up capital.

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Meantime, Property Tribes seems to be cannibalising SingingPig:

 

002wa.png

 

Funnily enough, GEI seems to be tracking SP's traffic now, and may soon move ahead.

 

/see: http://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/greenenergyinvestors.com#

 

Latest Rankings:

=====

GEI : #241,563 / GB#9,947 (54%) : 1 month 0.00069 +110% : 1 review, 53 links

SP - : #105,390 / GB#6,135 (XX%) : 1 month 0.00115 - 25% : 9 reviews, 71 links

PT - : # 91,185 / GB#3,214 (XX%) : 1 month 0.00171 + 24% : 0 review, 39 links

HPC : # 23,835 / GB#0,794 (XX%) : 1 month 0.00069 +110% : 138 reviews, 318 links

TFNN: #433,258 / US88,449 (XX%) : 1 month 0.00034 - 06% : 1 review, 55 links

CC - : #410,386 / AU15,043 (XX%) : 1 month 0.00021 -40% : 0 review, 22 links

=====

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Thank you both for your interest in Property Tribes and our soon-to-launch sister site Yulpa.

 

I thought I would pop along here as I have a lot of respect for Dr. Bubb's opinion and I would like to get to know you better and enjoy more intellectual debate than can be found on Singing Pig.

 

For the record, my husband Nick and I are full time professional Landlords and my husband Nick also has a social web consultancy.

 

We started Property Tribes in early 2009 as we realised that "none of us is as smart as all of us" and we wanted to create a network of like minded people who believe in ethical and transparent practices and treating property as a business, not some GRQ scheme. We wanted to provide an impartial and independent place for people to share information about property without being "sold to". That is why we have a strict non-sales agenda.

 

Yulpa is the brainchild of my husband Nick and has been 18 months in development. We are about to go to the city for investment, but, because we believe in community and the wisdom of crowds, we wanted to give the PT members a chance to have a small vested interest in the new site. The funding they are providing is to fund the next level of coding and the iPhone app. Yulpa will be launched in early 2011.

 

We have provided Property Tribes as a free resource at our expense and we are not desperate for members. It is not a business for us as we make our money from investing in property. However, Yulpa is very complimentary to it and there is nothing wrong in that if it provides a tangible product that addresses someone's property pain, which is does. :)

 

To be honest, I don't understand why Dr. Bubb goes on SP. There are probably about 4 people left posting on there. The rest are just newbies searching for the NMD, GRQ dream and I do not think they are going to be receptive to your message.

 

I too was banned from SP for my stance against NMD and for posting links to other interesting content. But there was such an outcry that I got re-instated.

 

I was inspired by something Dr. Bubb said to start a thread on PT. Do join in if you like. It has had 26 replies so far.

 

http://propertytribes.ning.com/forum/topic...t-owes-no-one-a

 

Thank you again for your interest. I will post a link back here so Tribes people can join in with you as well if they want to.

 

 

 

 

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Thank you both for your interest in Property Tribes and our soon-to-launch sister site Yulpa.

. . .

Thank you again for your interest. I will post a link back here so Tribes people can join in with you as well if they want to.

 

That's a clear explanation, and also a promotion for your two websites.

I wonder if you will allow me to do a similar promotion for GEI and GPC on your site?

 

Perhaps I will try soon. If mine can stay on PT, I suppose it would only be fair to let your post above stay here.

 

I may double post on PT some clones of comments here, as I used to do with HPC, before being banned there.

(Note: HPC stripped my link back here from my signature long before I stopped posting there. And that was

a big reason why I got fed up with that site.)

 

BTW, SP has more than just 4 posters & visitors. Traffic is about the same now as here, although it is falling now.

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With respect, it was you talking about my sites and indirectly promoting them, not me. I only came here to address your enquiries and engage with you in a professional and transparent manner.

 

I have already created a discussion inviting PT members to join here, so why would I have a problem with you posting links back here?

 

People are free to hang out wherever they like. No one can control that, nor should they try to imho. That is one of the reasons why SP is failing.

 

The sites that provide an enjoyable experience, give value, and help people learn, grow, and connect will gain traction and be successful, and the ones that don't will wither away and die. The community will decide where they want to invest their time ... not you or me. :)

 

I sense some hostility from you Dr. Bubb. Most people say "welcome" when someone new walks in the room ... especially when they are the "host" of the site.

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I sense some hostility from you Dr. Bubb. Most people say "welcome" when someone new walks in the room ... especially when they are the "host" of the site.

After the treatment that I have received on SP, does that surprise you?

 

Anyway, I have posted a comment now on that thread that you have started:

 

"If a community wants to invent the right to having a roof and the community is willing to fund the cost for any individuals who can not or will not pay for their own roof, fine. If the community can not afford to do so, the 'offer' (not right) to a roof has to be retracted."

 

Indeed. And we may be coming to the day when benefits of all kinds are going to be slashed, That will have an impact upon:

+ The size of rental subsidies

+ The market levels of rents

+ The riskiness of being an investor in property, where those on state-supported rents are a key element of demand

 

Even if your tenants are not benefiting from a subsidy, a loss of subsidies can hurt you - if rents fall.

 

I have been told on my own GEI website that "65% of all private sector rental income comes from housing benefit." Could that be true? It sounds unbelievably high to me. Even if the real figure is one-third of that, RENTALS could come under serious downwards pressure in 2011.

 

Might this be a great time to lighten up on your UK property investments?

== ==

 

And here is the Link back to PT

 

Perhaps people will come here to discuss Cycles, charts, and sentiment, and go to PT to discuss the "nuts & bolts" of UK property investing. That would suit us both I think, so let's see if matters move in that direction.

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Please don't judge your treatment of SP on me, or apply their standards to your own site! Make your site better by leading by example. :)

 

I have only ever been polite and respectful of you. I am interested to learn and understand other views and I have stuck up for you several times on Singing Pig.

 

People can use sites in whatever manner they choose so I am not sure why you feel the need to control that. Let them do what they want to do. Whatever anyone wants to do suits me as I have no agenda other than to share and learn. That is what being social is all about. I do not mind people posting links on PT if they add value to the discussion.

 

Otherwise you are like a pub landlord who locks people in, bans them for visiting other pubs, and tells them what they have to talk about while they are locked in your pub. Singing Pig banned you for posting links away from their site and you did not like being controlled in that way. A pub like that isn't going to be too popular and is the main reason that SP is dying imho. The main bulk of the activity on SP is a few people posting copious amounts of deals and leads which does not drive traffic. There are only a handful of people posting regularly who actually contribute anything of any value.

 

I appreciate your input onto PT as you add a different perspective.

 

Let's be friends. We're both adults who enjoy intellectual debate so we have no reason not to be as far as I am concerned.

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Please don't judge your treatment of SP on me, or apply their standards to your own site! Make your site better by leading by example. :)

 

I appreciate your input onto PT as you add a different perspective.

 

Let's be friends. We're both adults who enjoy intellectual debate so we have no reason not to be as far as I am concerned.

You are welcome here, Vanessa,

I don't know how long you have been running PT, but GEI has been going since early 2006.

It remained a fairly gentle place until late 2009, when we get hit by a swarm of aggressive posters, and for weeks, I tried to keep order without suspending people. That did not work, and the site was almost destroyed. We had to make many suspensions and bannings.

 

I hope you don't have to go thru that with PT, since it is very unpleasant, and time-consuming to deal with.

 

We have got it under control now, but it cost us a few good posters.

 

I assumed that many SP-ers moved to your site, so my comment about "how I was treated on SP" had nothing to do with your-good-efforts. Rather, it was a supposition that some of the 4-5 posters who were consistently nasty to me on SP might also be posters on your site. If not, if you have eliminated them, or somehow keep them under control, then good-going.

 

I will probably start some threads there, when I have something relevant and fresh to say about the direction of UK markets.

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Thanks for that.

 

I do appreciate what you say about SP. I have been attacked viciously on there on a number of occasions.

 

The bullies from there largely do not come across to PT because they only feel big and tough in their own " pub " hiding behind their false names and avatars! Several of them were at the Property Investor Show, but strangely they didn't come up to me and say any nasty things to my face!

 

I will not tolerate any bullying or personal abuse on PT and luckily, touch wood, we have not really had any so far.

 

Congratulations on running a site since 2006, that is a real achievement.

 

I think the web has changed a lot recently and is becoming a lot more "real". We are beginning to be able to ascertain who we can trust. I think PT is a reflection of that and is one of the reasons it has gained traction.

 

Remember: people want you to fit in so that they can ignore you!

 

Speak soon.

V.

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Visitors from SingingPig can post here too - So long as they stay respectful.

 

IN FACT, on that same thread, there was a post from a poster called Richard Greenhill, who writes a property Blog, and talks about the difficulties in Forecasting on that Blog:

 

But it might be interesting to have a discussion here about how to Forecast property prices.

 

Actually it's Greenland, but no offence, I get called all manner of things with a 'green' in them!

 

Well I'd be interested to see a discussion like that. Is there a discussion here I can look at already or do you want to kick one off?

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Actually it's Greenland, but no offence, I get called all manner of things with a 'green' in them!

 

Well I'd be interested to see a discussion like that. Is there a discussion here I can look at already or do you want to kick one off?

Apologies, Rich.

Just a typo. I did know a guy with the name of Richard Greenhill years ago, and somehow that name popped into my mind.

Greenland it is. In fact, GreenEnergy is please to have a GreenLand poster here.

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