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Steve Keen says the Aussie RE Bubble is bursting


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Some news today, Steve Keen says the Aussie real estate bubble is finally bursting. In my opinion it's been a long time coming but the Keenster has finally been vindicated. Steve Keen is the one man in Australia who predicted the GFC and he has been tipping this property crash for years. Now the time has some, and prices will most likely fall 40% as he has forecast. There's huge support for him on AustralianPropertyForum.com where the daft bulls are at last being beaten into total submission by the bears and forced to accept that the Australian Housing Bubble is dead. We're entering a new paradigm for the Australian property market, one of falling house prices and a path to the day when hardworking families can once again afford a decent home in this overpriced country. Bring it on!

 

Ireland Crashed. America crashed. You guys in the UK had your crash, and now it's our turn. Go Aussies!

 

Tom Kline.

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  • 2 weeks later...

At long last !

 

But the UK crash was aborted by QE and ZIRP.

 

The abortion is no more than a delay, and the rest of the drama is coming

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  • 5 weeks later...

At long last !

 

But the UK crash was aborted by QE and ZIRP.

 

The abortion is no more than a delay, and the rest of the drama is coming

 

Hi, but how do we play this imminent fall? Shorting the AUS$ against say the US$? Thinking how the banks, property and consumer related stocks fell during 2008 in both the US & UK (to name but two), I am wondering how to play this. Oz banks may be an obvious short.

 

Taxi driver in Perth last December extolled the virtues of said western city and claimed 'no boom here mate, all fuelled by commodities'. That may be an oxymoron, but it could also be telling.

 

A pint of beer was around (equivalent) £8 in Perth.

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I have some small scale bet on this.

 

I'm using a spread betting company in the UK so I don't pay tax and most trades are possible.

 

I've sold the Aussie Dollar against a few currencies. GBP, USD, SGD & CHF.

 

I've short sold the Aussie banks. WBC, ABZ, CBA, NAB as well as BOQ and SUN

 

Also shorted a few property focused companies, MGR, WDC, SGP, IOF.

 

nothing huge here. happy to ride out a 10% move upwards move but looking for a 30% drop.

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Desperation must be settling in.

 

We are getting bombarded with Ads fro australian property here in Hong Kong

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Desperation must be settling in.

 

We are getting bombarded with Ads fro australian property here in Hong Kong

This has been the case for a while now, inner city flats being sold to chinese 'investors' rather than Australians. Also new suburban houses that the locals can no longer afford are being marketed directly to the Chinese (and a few other asian markets), some developments are not even marketed in Aus at all. They are buying up big and if they dont have an offspring to fill them with (while at an Aus university) they are often leaveing them empty as they do in China. The bitch will be, that legaly, they are only alowed to sell them on to Australians as foreigners can only buy brand new property in Australia (however there is plenty of evidence to suggest that this does not happen in the shady background).

 

There is also the massive potential to cut rates, which of course would kill the Aus$ and curb the massive inflows chasing that high interest rate. The amusing bit here is that Aus housing loans consist of around 30% foreign capital.

 

As far as Aus realestate goes, we must have one of the most complicit corruptly minded goverments at all levels. Almost all Aus politicians are up to their necks in real estate, its all they know, property speculation and building mega sprawl is the mainstay of Australian GDP (mining is the sideshow that pays the deposit on all this)

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