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What are all the homes in Britain Worth?

How does London compare with "rest of the UK"

=====================================

 

22 million x £165,924 = £3.650 Trillion = All the Homes in Great Britain

 

stock-photo-aerial-view-of-the-royal-crescent-bath-england-66962353.jpg

 

................. Greater London Price (Rightmove) . . . . . . . . . . . . . .: ................. Rest-of-the-UK (GPC's calculation)

................. £1.20 Trillion (3 million x £399,997). . . . . . . . . . . . . .: ................. £2.83 Trillion (22 million x £128,727)

UkGrLondon.jpg.UknonLondonR.jpg.

 

I want to REPLACE THE HOMETRACK house price column (third from the left) in my House price Database...

 

GPC - DATA bank: / WHAT HAS HAPPENED since 2009:

 

Mo.: Rt'mov : London : Hometrack %/ Nt'wide H-oldSA Halif.SA Hal.NSA: HNindex : mom : DelusIdx

When?: 18th? - 18-20th : - 25 - 30th chg / -28th ? : Next mo.on 8th?

2009

J. : : 213,570 : 386,653 : 158,200 - 1.0% / 150,501 159,818 163,945 163,966 : £155,159 : = n / a : 137.6%

F : : 216,163 : 387,988 : 157,000 - 0.8% / 147,746 160,327 160,104 159,208 : £153,477 :- 1.08% :140.8% : LOW

M : : 218,081 : 398,867 : 156,100* -0.6% / 150,946 157,326 157,622 157,066 : £154,066 :+0.38% :141.6%

A : : 222,077 : 387,161 : 155,600* -0.3% / 151,861 154,716 154,663 157,156 : £154,508 :+0.29% :143.7%

M : : 227,441 : 397,646 : 155,600*+0.0% / 154,016 158,565 159,111 160,869 : £157,442 :+1.90% :144.5%

J. : : 226,436 : 397,140 : 155,650 +X.X% / 156,442 157,713 158,445 158,807 : £157,624 :+0.12% :143.7%

Jl : : 227,864 : 402,761 : 155,650 +X.X% / 158,871 159,623 159,749 160,686 : £159,778 :+1.37% :142.6%

A : : 222,762 : 387,265 : 155,806 +0.1% / 160,224 160,973 160,947 161,930 : £161,077 :+0.81% :138.3%

S : : 223,996 : 390,768 : 156,118 +0.2% / 161,816 163,533 163,487 164,854 : £163,335 :+1.40% :137.1%

O : : 230,184 : 416,157 : 156,430 +0.2% / 162,038 165,528 165,349 165,430 : £163,734 :+0.24% :140.6% : RM HIGH

N : : 226,440 : 403,069 : 156,743 +0.2% / 162,764 167,664 167,451 165,617 : £164,191 :+0.28% :137.9%

D : : 221,463 : 398,426 : 156,900*+0.1% / 162,103 169,042 168,763 167,260 : £164,681 :+0.30% :134.5%

 

Mo.: Rt'mov : London : Hometrack %/ Nt'wide H-oldSA Halif.SA Hal.NSA: HNindex : mom : DelusIdx

2010

J. : : 222,261 : 407,731 : 156,116 - 0.5% / 163,481 169,777 169,484 165,514 : £164,497 :- 0.11% :135.1% : HFsa HIGH

F : : 229,398 : 427,987 : 156,584 +0.3% / 161,320 166,857 166,703 165,997 : £163,659 :- 0.51% :140.2%

M : : 229,614 : 417,461 : 157,054 +0.3% / 164,519 168,521 168,433 167,808 : £166,164 :+1.53% :138.2%

A : : 235,512 : 421,822 : 157,368 +0.2% / 167,802 168,202 168,212 170,772 : £169,287 :+1.88% :139.1% : H&N HIGH

M : : 237,134 : 420,203 : 157,682 +0.2% / 169,162 167,570 167,287 169,204 : £169,183 :- 0.06% :140.2%

J. : : 237,767 : 429,597 : 158,700*+0.1% / 170,111 166,203 166,351 166,395 : £168,253 :- 0.55% :140.5%

Jl : : 236,332 : 422,248 : 158,500 - 0.1% / 169,347 167,425 167,536 168,331 : £168,839 :+0.35% :140.0%

A. : : 232,241 : 405,058 : 158,200 - 0.3% / 166,507 = n/a = 168,124 168,889 : £167,698 :- 0.68% :138.5%

S. : : 229,767 : 399,019 : 157,600*-0.4% / 166,757 = n/a = 161,974 163,639 : £165,198 :- 1.49% :139.1%

O : : 236,849 : 418,778 : 156,200* 0.9% / 164,279 = n/a = 164,949 165,275 : £164,777 :- 0.25% :143.7% : Hi Delus.

N : : 229,379 : 417,279 : 155,575 - 0.4% / 163,133 = n/a = 164,708 163,268 : £163,201 :- 0.96% :140.5% :

D : : 222,410 : 408,248 : 155,100 - 0.3% / 162,249 = n/a = 162,435 161,498 : £161,874 :- 0.81% :137.4% :

2011

J. : : 223,122 : 413,259 : 154,300 - 0.5% / 161,211 = n/a = 164,173 161,470 : £161,341 :- 0.33% :138.3% :

F. : : 230,030 : 430,680 : 154,000 - 0.2% / 161,183 = n/a = 162,657 161,680 : £161,432 :+ 0.06% :142.5% :

M : : 231,790 : 424,307 : 153,850 - 0.1% / 164,751 = n/a = 162,912 162,151 : £163,451 :+ 1.25% :141.8% :

A : : 235,822 : 431,013 : 153,850 +0.0% / 165,609 = n/a = 160,395 162,303 : £163,956 :+ 0.31% :143.8% :

M : : 238,874 : 430,936 : 153,700 - 0.1% / 167,208 = n/a = 160,519 162,344 : £164,776 :+ 0.50% :145.0% :

J. : : 240,394 : 438,622 : 153,550 - 0.1% / 168,205 = n/a = 163,049 163,642 : £165,924 :+ 0.70% :144.9% :

Jl : : 236,597 : 432,641 : 153,400 - 0.1% / 168,731 = n/a =

=====================================

mom: - 1.58% : - 1.36% : Est.DI: 142.6% / +0.31% = n/a = :+1.58% :+0.80% : + 0.70%

 

*Actual figure Hometrack index; others are calculated from mom changes.

Criteria for indices : http://www.houseprice.org.uk/articles/house-price-indices

Comparison of Criteria : http://firstrung.co.uk/page.asp?pagekey=115

Other : http://www.acadametrics.co.uk/acadHousePrices.php

 

===

Tags: Halifax, Nationwide Index, SA Seasonally Adjusted, NSA, Bull Trap, UKtrap

 

Links: Halifax : Nationwide :Rightmove : Hometrack : Home.co.uk

... with my own calculation of "outside London" prices

CHART

No Crash ? It really depends on where you live.

UknonLondon.gif.jpg

 

Peak : 166,265 - Sep.2007

Low- : 120,616 - Mar.2009 : - 27.5%

Rally : 135,331 - Aug.2010 : +12.2%

Latest 128,737 - Jun.2011 :: Down from the high : - 22.6% / -GBP 37,528

 

This certainly looks like an ongoing crash to me. Over 17 months, prices-outside-London retraced only 32.2% of their GBP 45,649 drop.

Yes, London is different - but London's day is coming too, I reckon.

Meantime, only about 12% of the UK's houses are in London, so the above chart represents reality for about 88% of UK homeowners.

How is my calculation of "outside London prices" done ?

 

I assume that there are 25 million homes in all of Britain, and only 3 million homes in London - that's 12% of the total.

 

I then multiply the 25*Million x the average price (per the H&N index)

and then subtract 3 million x the Rightmove asking price for London

= this leaves me the notional value of the 22 million (19 million) homes in the rest of the UK.

 

*(revised to 22 million homes)

 

How is my calculation of "outside London prices" done ?

 

I assume that there are 25 million homes in all of Britain, and only 3 million homes in London - that's 12% of the total.

 

I then multiply the 25 Million x the average price (per the H&N index)

and then subtract 3 million x the Rightmove asking price for London

= this leaves me the notional value of the 22 million homes in the rest of the UK.

 

Example (as of June 2011):

======

25 million x £165,924 = £4.148 Trillion

-3 million x £438,622 = £1.316 Trillion

22 million x ?XXX,xxx = £2.832 Trillion = £128,727 ave./ home

 

This method was later revised (see post #3), and yields:

======

22 million x £165,924 = £3.650 Trillion = All the Homes in Great Britain

-3 million x £399,997 = £1.200 Trillion (using 92% of last two Rmv-London)

19 million x ?XXX,xxx = £2.450 Trillion = £128,965 ave./ home

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Following includes the "Rest of UK" data (Revised, as stated in post #3)

 

GPC - DATA bank: / WHAT HAS HAPPENED since 2009:

 

Mo.: Rt'mov : London : Rest of UK %chg/ Nt'wide H-oldSA Halif.SA Hal.NSA: HNindex : mom : DelusIdx

When?: 18th? - 18-20th : - 25 - 30th chg / -28th ? : Next mo.on 8th?

2009

J. : : 213,570 : 386,653 : 123,124 -0.33% / 150,501 159,818 163,945 163,966 : £155,159 : = n / a : 137.6%

F : : 216,163 : 387,988 : 121,447 - 1.36% / 147,746 160,327 160,104 159,208 : £153,477 :- 1.08% :140.8% : LOW

M : : 218,081 : 398,867 : 121,172 - 0.23% / 150,946 157,326 157,622 157,066 : £154,066 :+0.38% :141.6%

A : : 222,077 : 387,161 : 121,814 +0.53% / 151,861 154,716 154,663 157,156 : £154,508 :+0.29% :143.7%

M : : 227,441 : 397,646 : 125,300 +2.86% / 154,016 158,565 159,111 160,869 : £157,442 :+1.90% :144.5%

J. : : 226,436 : 397,140 : 124,786 - 0.41% / 156,442 157,713 158,445 158,807 : £157,624 :+0.12% :143.7%

Jl : : 227,864 : 402,761 : 126,908 +1.70%/ 158,871 159,623 159,749 160,686 : £159,778 :+1.37% :142.6%

A : : 222,762 : 387,265 : 129,129 +1.75% / 160,224 160,973 160,947 161,930 : £161,077 :+0.81% :138.3%

S : : 223,996 : 390,768 : 132,615 +2.70% / 161,816 163,533 163,487 164,854 : £163,335 :+1.40% :137.1%

O : : 230,184 : 416,157 : 130,979 - 1.23% / 162,038 165,528 165,349 165,430 : £163,734 :+0.24% :140.6% : RM HIGH

N : : 226,440 : 403,069 : 130,614 - 0.28% / 162,764 167,664 167,451 165,617 : £164,191 :+0.28% :137.9%

D : : 221,463 : 398,426 : 132,470 +1.42% / 162,103 169,042 168,763 167,260 : £164,681 :+0.30% :134.5%

 

Mo.: Rt'mov : London : Rest of UK %chg/ Nt'wide H-oldSA Halif.SA Hal.NSA: HNindex : mom : DelusIdx

2010

J. : : 222,261 : 407,731 : 131,918 - 0.42% / 163,481 169,777 169,484 165,514 : £164,497 :- 0.11% :135.1% : HFsa HIGH

F : : 229,398 : 427,987 : 128,801 - 2.36% / 161,320 166,857 166,703 165,997 : £163,659 :- 0.51% :140.2%

M : : 229,614 : 417,461 : 130,995 +1.70% / 164,519 168,521 168,433 167,808 : £166,164 :+1.53% :138.2%

A : : 235,512 : 421,822 : 135,058 +3.10% / 167,802 168,202 168,212 170,772 : £169,287 :+1.88% :139.1% : H&N HIGH

M : : 237,134 : 420,203 : 134,739 - 0.24% / 169,162 167,570 167,287 169,204 : £169,183 :- 0.06% :140.2%

J. : : 237,767 : 429,597 : 133,097 - 1.22% / 170,111 166,203 166,351 166,395 : £168,253 :- 0.55% :140.5%

Jl : : 236,332 : 422,248 : 133,627 +0.40% / 169,347 167,425 167,536 168,331 : £168,839 :+0.35% :140.0%

A. : : 232,241 : 405,058 : 134,088 +0.35% / 166,507 = n/a = 168,124 168,889 : £167,698 :- 0.68% :138.5%

S. : : 229,767 : 399,019 : 132,880 - 0.90% / 166,757 = n/a = 161,974 163,639 : £165,198 :- 1.49% :139.1%

O : : 236,849 : 418,778 : 131,396 - 1.12% / 164,279 = n/a = 164,949 165,275 : £164,777 :- 0.25% :143.7% : Hi Delus.

N : : 229,379 : 417,279 : 128,245 - 2.40% / 163,133 = n/a = 164,708 163,268 : £163,201 :- 0.96% :140.5% :

D : : 222,410 : 408,248 : 127,473 - 0.60% / 162,249 = n/a = 162,435 161,498 : £161,874 :- 0.81% :137.4% :

2011

J. : : 223,122 : 413,259 : 127,148 - 0.25% / 161,211 = n/a = 164,173 161,470 : £161,341 :- 0.33% :138.3% :

F. : : 230,030 : 430,680 : 125,624 - 1.20% / 161,183 = n/a = 162,657 161,680 : £161,432 :+ 0.06% :142.5% :

M : : 231,790 : 424,307 : 127,160 +1.22% / 164,751 = n/a = 162,912 162,151 : £163,451 :+ 1.25% :141.8% :

A : : 235,822 : 431,013 : 127,721 +0.44% / 165,609 = n/a = 160,395 162,303 : £163,956 :+ 0.31% :143.8% :

M : : 238,874 : 430,936 : 128,189 +0.37% / 167,208 = n/a = 160,519 162,344 : £164,776 :+ 0.50% :145.0% :

J. : : 240,394 : 438,622 : 128,965 +0.61% / 168,205 = n/a = 163,049 163,642 : £165,924 :+ 0.70% :144.9% :

Jl : : 236,597 : 432,641 : 1XX,xxx +/- ?? % / 168,731 = n/a =

=====================================

mom: - 1.58% : - 1.36% : Est.DI: 142.6% / +0.31% = n/a = :+1.58% :+0.80% : + 0.70%

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Cross checking data

 

What are all the homes in Britain Worth?

How does London compare with "rest of the UK"

=====================================

 

stock-photo-aerial-view-of-the-royal-crescent-bath-england-66962353.jpg

 

Example (as of June 2011):

======

25 million x £165,924 = £4.148 Trillion

-3 million x £438,622 = £1.316 Trillion

22 million x ?XXX,xxx = £2.832 Trillion = £128,727 ave./ home

Total UK Mortgage Debt

 

31 Dec 09 1234167

31 Jan 10 1237565

28 Feb 10 1238895

31 Mar 10 1238303

30 Apr 10 1238418

31 May 10 1239178

30 Jun 10 1239054

31 Jul 10 1238899

31 Aug 10 1240280

30 Sep 10 1240604

31 Oct 10 1237796

== == ==

 

Number of Households ... source

 

Key points from the latest release are:

 

The number of households in England is projected to grow to 27.5 million in 2033, an increase of 5.8 million (27 per cent) over 2008, or 232,000 households per year.

Population growth is the main driver of household growth, accounting for nearly three-quarters of the increase in households between 2008 and 2033.

One person households are projected to increase by 159,000 per year, equating to two-thirds of the increase in households.

 

By 2033, 19 per cent of the household population of England is projected to live alone, compared with 14 per cent in 2008.

 

No. Households:

27.5 million : in 2033,

-5.8 million : increase

========

21.7 million : in 2008

+0.7 million : add 3 years

========

22.4 million : in 2011, Estimate

x 13.4%

========

=3.0 million : London

 

...I am going to revise my figures, as follows:

 

Example (as of June 2011): Revised no's

======

22 million x £165,924 = £3.650 Trillion

-3 million x £399,997*= £1.200 Trillion (using 92% of last two Rmv-London)

19 million x ?XXX,xxx = £2.450 Trillion = £128,965 ave./ home

 

 

Note:

*The Rightmove index for Greater London asking prices jumps around quite alot, and also is more "forward looking" than Halifax and Nationwide price indices. To adjust for that, I use the average of the last two months in this calculation, and so:

 

May 2011 : £430,936

Jun 2011 : £438,622

========

Average= : £434,770

x adjust: x 92% == I assume an 8% discount to asking prices

========

Average= : £399,997

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Value of Britain's homes tops £4 trillion for first time

 

Grainne Gilmore and Anne Ashworth .. January 12, 2008

 

The total value of homes in Britain reached a record £4 trillion last year.

 

The combined price tag of the 22 million homes in the country has more than trebled in the past decade, rising by 208 per cent to £4,014 billion since 1998, new figures from Halifax, the biggest mortgage lender, show. In the same period the retail price index, which is one measure of inflation, rose by 31 per cent.

 

The sale value of all homes is nearly three times as great as the £1.4 trillion gross domestic product (GDP) of Britain, and more than half of the US GDP, which is £7.4 trillion. It would fund the building of 10,000 nuclear power stations or a fleet of 28,500 of the most expensive yachts at a cost of £140 million each.

 

This is good news for homeowners: despite the sharp increase in household borrowing in recent years, housing equity far outweighs mortgage debt. Even with total mortgage debts worth £1.2 trillion, the enormous value of the housing stock means that Britons are sitting on a mountain of net housing wealth worth £2.8 trillion.

 

Martin Ellis, the chief economist at Halifax, said: “Mortgage debt accounts for only 30 per cent of the value of the UK’s £4 trillion worth of housing assets.”

 

The scale of the huge gains in housing wealth highlights how even significant falls in house prices in the coming year, while unpleasant, would not be as catastrophic as is sometimes suggested. Even the gloomiest economists do not expect prices to fall by 15 per cent, with most experiencing much smaller declines. Such falls would still leave homeowners sitting on most of the huge gains racked up in recent years.

 

Citigroup predicts that house prices will fall by 10 per cent in the next three years. Nationwide forecasts that most prices will stay static this year, but predicts small decreases in Northern Ireland and the North West of England. Halifax says that prices will stay steady, except for falls in the North of England and the Midlands.

 

If house prices move in line with the predictions of Halifax it could be enough to the widen the gap between prices in the North and South, which has narrowed in the past five years. In 2002 housing stock in the North of England was worth 39 per cent of the total value, while the South’s share was worth 61 per cent. Last year the ratio was only 45 per cent to 55 per cent.

 

In the South property wealth is concentrated mainly in London and the South East. The total value of homes in the two regions is £1.44 trillion, 36 per cent of the total value of residential properties

 

/more: http://property.timesonline.co.uk/tol/life_and_style/property/article3174803.ece

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Total UK personal debt stands at £1,452bn

2 June 2011 | By Natalie Thomas

 

Total UK personal debt at the end of April 2011 stood at £1,452bn, the latest figures from charity Credit Action show.

 

However the twelve-month growth rate remained unchanged at 0.8%.

 

UK banks and building societies wrote off £9.5bn of loans to individuals in the four quarters to end Q1 2011, in Q1 2011 they wrote off £1.89bn - £866m of which was credit card debt.

 

This amounts to a write-off of £20.71m a day.

 

Meanwhile, the average household debt in the UK is now £8,121 - excluding mortgages. This figure increases to £15,618 if the average is based on the number of households who actually have some form of unsecured loan.

 

Average household debt in the UK is ~ £55,854 when mortgages are included.

 

If you add to this the March 2010 budget report figure for public sector net debt expected in 2015-16 then this figure rises to £106,470 per household.

 

Average owed by every UK adult is - £29,835, including mortgages. This is 121% of average earnings.

 

While the average outstanding mortgage for the 11.4m households who currently have mortgages now stands at £109,018.

 

Joanna Parsley, associate director at Credit Action says: “June’s debt statistics show some interesting trends. As consumers we are choosing to pay down our debts, as this month shows that on average household debt excluding mortgages decreased by £23 to £8,121 and similarly, average household debt including mortgages fell by £16 to £55,854.

 

“Paying down debt is good, sensible money management advice, yet as consumers we’re doing it against a backdrop of an ever increasing cost of living.

 

“The CPI reached 4.5% in April, and the cost of filling a car with a 50-litre tank with unleaded petrol has increased further, by 55p this month. For the average consumer, the squeeze on their household budget continues.”

 

/see: http://www.mortgagestrategy.co.uk/economy/total-uk-personal-debt-stands-at-%C2%A31452bn/1032071.article

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80% of homes worth less than they were five years ago

 

Posted on June 23rd, 2011 | Categories - House Prices, Mortgages

New research by the property website Zoopla.co.uk shows that 3.5 million properties bought since 2006 are now worth less than what they were sold for.

 

This figure equates to 80% of all homes since 2006.

 

The study went on to conclude that many homeowners who have seen a drop in the value of their home and who want to move, are setting unrealistic sale prices which buyers will not pay and are therefore finding themselves stuck and unable to move.

 

Nicholas Leeming, business development director at Zoopla.co.uk, said: “There is an unprecedented number of homeowners ‘stuck’ with homes they bought in recent years with the expectation that prices would continue to sky-rocket. And as a result of not wanting to take a loss on their asset, many owners have been unwilling to set realistic asking prices to sell them.”

 

Worst affected

The people worst affected are the ones who bought their home at the peak of the property boom between 2007 and 2008. 93.2% of people who bought in 2007 have seen the value of their home fall since then, and 88.9% of homes bought in 2008 have fallen in value.

 

Perhaps unsurprisingly the area worst hit is the north east of England with 93% of properties bought since 2006 worth less than their purchase price.

London however is the least affected with less than 50% of properties bought since 2006 now worth less than the purchase price.

Mortgages

 

We highlighted yesterday the problem that borrowers on Standard Variable Rate mortgages are having remortgaging their homes because of a lack of equity and this new report from Zoopla simply emphasises this point.

 

Falling property values not only cause problems for people who want to move house but also for borrowers who are stuck on uncompetitive mortgage deals but who do not have sufficient equity to get a better mortgage deal.

 

/see: http://www.investmentsense.co.uk/80-of-homes-worth-less-than-they-were-five-years-ago/

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Rightmove's UK asking prices have been creeping up to near May 2009 levels

 

Rightmove_Price_Trend_468x240.jpg

 

The average asking price is now the highest it has been for almost three years – the last time the prices were higher than this was in June 2008.

 

Rightmove has put the price increases down to the lack of properties coming onto the market, low interest rates and lack of mortgage availability.

 

New property listings fell from 29,000 per week to 20,000 per week over the extended bank holiday period. This has helped push up asking prices of fresh-to-market property.

Low interest rates, which have remained at 0.5% for the 26th consecutive month, counterbalance downward price pressure – asking prices are now only £3,626 (1.5%) below all-time highs in May 2008, when the average property price was £242,500.

Rightmove says a low level of transactions is putting a floor under prices. The historic low base rate and continuing lack of mortgage availability are enabling the housing market to stay in its 'low transaction limbo,' with few forced sellers driving prices down.

 

With low transaction volumes, asking prices do not necessarily reflect the market fundamentals, according to Rightmove, so continuing demand for good quality property in better areas and a lack of pressure to sell have enabled prices to appear to defy gravity.

 

Miles Shipside, director of Rightmove, says: 'The Bank of England's decision to hold interest rates at unprecedented low levels, compared to all other property market downturns, has disrupted the traditional economic formula of an excess of supply over demand leading to lower prices.

'One interest rate rise won't immediately derail the market but if we see several in quick succession, it will quickly hit the buffers.'

 

 

Read more: http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-1723410/House-asking-prices-highest-for-3-years.html#ixzz1TjcCKmD6

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8 £158,344 163,563 -1.40%

£157,678 163,534 -0.42%

£155,250 163,176 -1.54%

£155,026 162,295 -0.14%

£149,766 161,395 -3.39%

£146,688 159,929 -2.06%

£143,281 158,176 -2.32%

£140,267 156,150 -2.10%

£137,859 153,785 -1.72%

£131,968 151,318 -4.27%

£128,929 148,792 -2.30%

£123,531 145,914 -4.19%

9 £123,124 142,749 -0.33%

£121,447 139,608 -1.36%

£121,172 136,535 -0.23%

£121,814 133,457 0.53%

£125,300 130,916 2.86%

£124,786 128,972 -0.41%

£126,908 127,291 1.70%

£129,129 126,076 1.75%

£132,615 125,283 2.70%

£130,979 125,341 -1.23%

£130,614 125,528 -0.28%

£132,470 126,172 1.42%

10 £131,918 127,021 -0.42%

£128,801 127,973 -2.36%

£130,995 128,667 1.70%

£135,058 129,501 3.10%

£134,739 130,388 -0.24%

£133,097 131,293 -1.22%

£133,627 131,856 0.40%

£134,088 132,265 0.35%

£132,880 132,399 -0.90%

£131,396 132,572 -1.12%

£128,245 132,643 -2.40%

£127,473 132,259 -0.60%

11 £127,148 131,854 -0.25%

£125,624 131,704 -1.20%

£127,160 131,216 1.22%

£127,721 130,498 0.44%

£128,189 129,860 0.37%

£128,965 129,414 0.61%

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LONDON is still bubble Land

 

According to Philippe Aldrick and Emma Rowley, in the Telegraph today, disposable incomes in the UK are falling by 3% per annum, by 0.5% pre annum in the EU, but are rising in the US at 2% per annum.

AND the US is well down the road in getting through its housing crash

 

So is "the rest of the UK" btw

UknonLondonR.jpg

 

But Greater London hasn't even started to face the crisis of Falling Property prices yet

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:o Do my eyes deceive me, or do you also think the nominal bottom may be within -10% from here?

 

Yes (especially with the banker layoffs), but with 50% of London purchases coming from buyers outside UK, the £ devaluation effect also has to be considered. This will mean their nominal peak to trough could be significantly less that the rest of UK.

No.

I think it is too soon to start talking about Lows in UK prices, even outside London.

 

UkWideVsRest2.jpg

 

I can easily see Rest-of-UK falling to and below GBP 100,000

 

UkWideVsRest3.jpg

 

The Foreign FOOLS will stop buying in London at some point, and you will see them turn net sellers of their new properties when they realise they have made a mistake in overpaying.

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Sorry to disagree, but it may not be meaningful; most stocks have a higher beta than the market, at least in terms of the housing market. When the market falls individual stocks fall more. I would not read too much into the builders' stocks now. I agree they were fantastic warning for calling the big turn, but now a big fall in the builders might only feed through to a soft patch for house prices in general. All I see happening if stocks are routed is that interest rates will be kept on hold into next summer and prices might soften up a little like we saw H2/2010 but all consistent with "3-5 years of stagnation" rather than apocalyse now.

So far, the Indices are holding up well

 

UkWideVsRest.jpg

 

In fact, the "Outside London" price managed to push slightly above the 12 month's Moving Average

at £128,990. I think this will prove very temporary.

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It would be interesting to have a similar chart for the UK

 

I think it is clear very few senior accountants from Deloittes are going to make it.

 

They are peddling some serious horsefeathers here:

 

million-pyramid.png

 

According to this Deloitte study, those in the $1m–$5m wealth cohort will reach 15.8 million households in 2020, a

growth of 103% over the next decade. The $5m–30m cohort is also likely to exhibit strong growth, at 83%

over the next decade, while the $30 m+ cohort is expected to grow 24%

 

DELOITTE MILLIONAIRE STUDY : "Numbers of Millionaires TO DOUBLE":

http://www.deloitte.com/assets/Dcom-UnitedStates/Local%20Assets/Documents/FSI/US_FSI_Next%20Decade%20in%20Global%20Wealth%20Executive%20Summary_050411.pdf

 

WHY do I call it "horsefeathers"?

 

Because the US economy has been poorly run, and is doing a poor job of increasing Real Wealth:

 

networth-1945.png.jpg

 

Why is Deloitte finding it so hard to face the truth of wealth destruction?

Are they complicit in the bad management?

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  • 1 year later...

(these may be better figures than I had produced before):

 

UK Net Worth Rises to Record £6.8 Trillion / IBTimes.co.uk

 

Britain's net worth reached a record £6.8 trillion at the end of last year, according to the Office for National Statistics, as persistently high property prices offset a fall in the contribution of the central government.

 

The National Balance Sheet figures, released by the ONS, show a 3.3 percent increase in what is called "UK Net Worth", a calculation that estimates the market value of financial and non-financial assets in the country.

 

According to the data, the value of Britain's residential property (as well as things such as churches and sports grounds) was the single-largest contributor, adding more than £4.1tn to the total account. Britain's currency holdings and its bank deposits added a further £1.3tn. The value of what's called "insurance technical reserves", which are effectively the value of the private insurance industry's holdings, was £2.2tn.

 

/see: http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/articles/374343/20120816/britain-net-worth-house-prices-debt-borrowing.htm

 

Getting a GRIP on UK Housing Wealth

 

Britain's residential property---------- : £4,100 Bn

Less: churches and sports grounds :: £ 400 Bn (assume 10%)

Privately owned Homes----------------- : £3,700 Bn (assume 90%)

Addback: Mortgages outstanding--- : £1,221 Bn : MLAR Mortgage Loan O/S

Overall Value of Private Homes------ : £4,921 Bn : Mtg.OS: 24.9%

=============

 

Divided by Ave Price (Haliwide)---- : £164,489 : June 2012

Est.Number, homes in the UK------ : 29.91 million (Overall Value / Ave. Haliwide Price)

 

Divided by Ave Price, adjusted ---- : £180,838 : June 2012: 80% Nationwide/Halifax, 20%-Rightmove

Est.Number, homes in the UK------ : 27.21 million (Overall Value / Ave. Adjusted Price)

 

Est.Number, empty homes in UK---- : 930,000 : emptyhomes.com

Est.Number, occupied homes UK-- : 26.28 million

 

(Another check)...

Number of households in the UK--- : 26.30 million : in 2011

Number of homes in the UK---------- : 25.00 million : BBC figure

Owner occupied homes in UK------- : 17.50 million : 7-of-10, per BBC

Population of the U.K. ----------------- : 62.64 million : in 2011

 

NOTE:

The initial numbers I collected did not "add up" propeerly.

The Mortgage Gross figure of- : £ 7,200 Bn is too high - Incl. Commercial Mtgs?

I found another Mortgage O/S : £ 1,221 Bn : MLAR Figure, Q1-2011

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