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COMMODITIES : Crude Oil, from Nowhere Land to Bull breakout


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COMMODITIES : Crude Oil failed to meet Bullish targets

Oil remains in Nowhere Land - as we head into 2013

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Crude & commodity prices: http://money.cnn.com/data/commodities/

 

Oil Service vs Brent (OILB) & USO: Wkly : Daily : 10day // OIH : OILB : USO (12/31/12: $38.63, $65.73, $33.37)

 

oihetc.gif

 

Two Year chart : OIH vs. OILB, USO ... 2yrs-D : 10day :

oihetc2yr.gif

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WTI Crude Futures / WTIC ... On Stockcharts - closing 2012 near $89

wtic.png

 

 

WTI Crude Oil, measured in Gold ounces - about 5% of a Gold ounce, is where we are now

wtitogold.png

 

Gold, measured in WTI Barrels

 

goldtowti.png

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What Next, Mr Big Oil ?

 

XOM / Exxon Mobile ... update

 

xom.gif

 

Looks "shaky" to me - And it looks similar to XLE, the Energy etf ... update : since-2007

 

aapl.gif

 

It looks to me that the 2003-2007 rally in SPY was "killed off" by rising commodity-price inflation (see jumps in XLE and DBA. above.)

 

Then, when stocks fell, so did DBA and XLE, eventually. In the final part of the stock drop, money flowed into bonds, and TLT spiked up. Then in early March 2009, that was the send of the stock selloff.

 

Stocks look vulnerable to another Top here. Might a sudden rise in Commodities, put the highs in place, once again.

Or might it be something else that does it this time?

 

DBA is weaker than oil stocks (XLE), suggesting that Food/grain prices are under less upwards pressure than oil.

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  • 2 weeks later...

NYMEX-Oil stays above $92; eyes on U.S. oil, economic data

Reuters India - 5 Hours ago

 

SINGAPORE, Jan 4 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures held above $92 a barrel on Friday as investors looked ahead to oil inventories and economic data from the United States for signals about demand in the

Finanace - NYMEX-Oil stays above $92; eyes on U.S. oil, economic data / PhillyBurbs.com

 

It won't take much of a rise to break this triangle to the upside:

 

Two Year chart : OIH vs. OILB, USO ... 2yrs-D : 10day :

oihetc2yr.gif

 

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UPDATE 4-Brent falls below $111 as U.S. Fed flags concern

Reuters India - 77 Minutes ago

* Fed worries about side effects of stimulus package

* U.S. crude stockpiles fell 12 mln bbls last week -API

* Coming up: U.S. Dec non-farm payrolls at 1330 GMT

* U.S. EIA weekly oil stocks data at 1530

===

 

http://www.congoo.com/GlobalEdgeNews

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It looks to me that the 2003-2007 rally in SPY was "killed off" by rising commodity-price inflation (see jumps in XLE and DBA. above.)

 

Then, when stocks fell, so did DBA and XLE, eventually. In the final part of the stock drop, money flowed into bonds, and TLT spiked up. Then in early March 2009, that was the send of the stock selloff.

 

 

SPY vs. XLE (oil stocks) & DBA (grain prices) ... update

 

spxxle.gif

 

Stocks look vulnerable to another Top here. Might a sudden rise in Commodities, put the highs in place, once again.

Or might it be something else that does it this time?

 

DBA is weaker than oil stocks (XLE), suggesting that Food/grain prices are under less upwards pressure than oil.

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NO SURGE yet

 

NYMEX-Oil falls below $93/bbl, demand concerns linger

CNBC - 3 Hours ago

PERTH, Jan 7 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures dipped below $93 a barrel in early Asian trading on Monday, as demand concerns continued to weigh on prices after an unexpectedly large build in oil inventories

 

FUNDAMENTALS

=====

* U.S. crude for February delivery fell 12 cents to $92.97 a barrel by 0106 GMT.

* A Reuters technical analysis on Monday showed that while signals are mixed for U.S. oil, it is biased to revisit its Jan. 4 low of $91.52 per barrel.

* Brent crude for February rose slightly, gaining 9 cents to $111.40 a barrel.

* Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed a steep build in stockpiles last week and demand continuing to lag year-ago levels by 2.3 percent.

* A U.S. jobs report last week showed gains in employment slowed slightly, but signaled some momentum in the labor market's recovery from the 2007-09 recession, with employment gains distributed broadly throughout the economy.

* Commodities were also affected by concerns that the U.S. Federal Reserve is considering a slowdown or stop of asset purchases that investors have figured into their economic outlook. The Fed's balance sheet of nearly $3 trillion risks instability with further expansion, the officials had reasoned.

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The Fed's "Directed stimulus weapon" has worked over the last few weeks, helping stocks

BUT WHAT NEXT ?

 

89093893.gif

 

Oil Charts suggest that that commodity may be headed towards a Big Move

 

Fed’s Plosser Says Stimulus May Fail While Fueling Inflation

La Repubblica - 7 Hours ago

(Updates with comment on main interest rate in seventh paragraph.) Jan. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Charles Plosser said the central bank’s record stimulus risks a

 

So far, stocks are the main thing showing the impact of QE3 stimulus

 

34345920.gif

 

Could that be about to change???

 

Drop in supply pushes up corn prices

Miami Herald - 3 Hours ago

Corn prices are climbing after a government report showed that farmers harvested less corn last year than anticipated, largely the result of a long-running drought.The U.S. Department of Agriculture released

PRECIOUS-Gold down 1 pct on China inflation, ends week flat

Reuters India - 5 Hours ago

* Chinese inflation rate hits 7-month high in December * Prices slide below 200-day moving average * TOCOM gold hits record high on yen weakness (New throughout, updates prices, market activity, changes

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OPEC sees weaker demand for its crude in 2013

Reuters UK - 9 Hours ago

2:13pm GMT By LONDON (Reuters) - OPEC expects demand for its crude to be lower than expected in 2013 because of higher supply from rival producers, indicating inventories could build up substantially

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Wheat Climbs to One-Month High as Winter Threatens Russian Crop

Bloomberg - 6 Hours ago

Wheat advanced to the highest level in more than a month as winter-kill hit grains in Russia, last year’s third-largest shipper, deepening concerns about global supply amid a persistent U.S. drought.

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Oil up, as Gold slides...

 

Oil Trades Near Four-Month High as OPEC Sees No Price Collapse

Washington Post - 108 Minutes ago

Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Oil traded near the highest level in four months in New York after orders for durable goods in the U.S. jumped and OPEC Secretary-General Abdalla El-Badri said crude prices are...

 

Ratio : WTI Crude-to-Gold

wtitogold.png

 

Interesting to see this while you can read all the reports in the Pres about how

the US may soon become self-sufficient in oil. The disconnect is bizarre !

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$97.50.

Moving closer to a decisive breakout..

We are close to an upside "golden cross" on the 50 & 200dmas.

 

 

 

Oil and commodities look like they are gearing up for a big move UP:

 

http://postimage.org/image/m532c3g2v/

oil1.png

 

 

http://postimage.org/image/3zupbs5yf/

oil2.png

 

 

Look for a test of $100 overhead resistance, if it can get through then rising oil prices could be one of the big stories of the year, and maybe Bernanke's endless money printing will begin to show through in real painful inflation.

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A "cross" and breakout might ignite some other commodities too...

 

Copper gains on growth optimism, further data eyed

Business Recorder - 1/29/2013

:26 Posted by Imaduddin LONDON: Copper rose on Tuesday as optimism about an economic recovery gathered pace following recent encouraging US data, but further gains were kept in check as caution prevailed

 

Commodities Rise as Economic Confidence Gains; Stocks Fluctuate

Washington Post - 1/29/2013

Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Commodities rose to a three-month high as reports from Germany to Australia signaled improved global confidence. European stocks were little changed, while India’s rupee rebounded

 

Corn Rises for Second Day as Dryness May Reduce Argentine Crop

Bloomberg - 1/29/2013

Corn rose for a second day in Chicago on speculation dry weather may hurt crop yields in Argentina, the world’s second-biggest exporter of the grain. Wheat advanced. Dry conditions may persist this week

=== ===

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Copper gains on growth optimism, further data eyed

Business Recorder - 1/29/2013

:26 Posted by Imaduddin LONDON: Copper rose on Tuesday as optimism about an economic recovery gathered pace following recent encouraging US data, but further gains were kept in check as caution prevailed Copper steady on growth optimism, further data eyed Sharenet

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"Sunnier Days" : Best months ahead for Energy?

 

There's a chart in this presentation showing monthly returns (S&P 500 Energy index, 1989-2012):

http://www.usfunds.c...SunnierDays.pdf

Jan. is generally a down month, but that's followed by a usual strong performance in Feb-May, where the monthly returns average about 2%, or more than 8% for the four months.

 

The JAN DROP did not happen this year in many oil stocks ...

 

 

Feb. 6, 2013, 3:18 a.m. EST

Oil firms, drug makers weigh on Europe stocks

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- European stock markets nudged lower in early trade on Wednesday, with drug makers and oil firms leading decliners, while investors awaited German manufacturing data due later in the session. The Stoxx Europe 600 indexXX:SXXP -0.14% dropped 0.3% to 284.73. Shares of Royal KPN NV NL:KPN -15.85% lost 3.5%, after a broker downgrade. Shares of ArcelorMittal SA FR:MT +0.36% added 1.4%, as the steelmaker said losses widened in fourth quarter, but that it sees improvement ahead.

 

Oil firms tracked oil prices lower, with shares of BP PLC UK:BP -0.70% BP +1.35%down 0.5% and Total SA FR:FP +1.15% TOT +0.88% 0.3% lower. Among country-specific indexes, France's CAC 40 index fell 0.3% to 3,684.01, while Germany's DAX 30 indexDX:DAX -0.09% gave up 0.2% to 7,653.45. The U.K.'s FTSE 100 index UK:UKX +0.13%traded slightly higher at 6,284.63

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/see: http://www.marketwat...&dist=bigcharts

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Platts: OPEC Pumps 30.45 Million Barrels of Crude Oil Per Day in January PR Newswire

Yahoo! Finance - 3 Hours ago

LONDON, Feb. 7, 2013 /PRNewswire/ --? Crude oil production from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) fell to 30.45 million barrels per day (b/d) in January from 30.65 million b/d

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  • 3 weeks later...

Copper and Aluminum Fall to 3-Month Lows After China’s PMI Data

La Repubblica - 2 Hours ago

March 1 (Bloomberg) -- Copper and aluminum fell to three- month lows in London after manufacturing growth slowed in China, the biggest industrial metals user. China’s manufacturing Purchasing Managers’

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This Copper chart has an E-Wave count from Tony Caldaro

 

abxf.png

 

/source-pg9 : http://stockcharts.c...1269446/tenpp/9

 

If I understand the count properly (it is correct), Copper should still go higher

 

Here's the Stockchart $Copper chart

 

copperl.png

 

And CU/ Copper etf ... update

 

22130576.gif

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For the record here:

 

RISK-ON versus Risk-off periods ... updated

 

Using CU/copper, SLV/silver, GLD/gold, and CRB/comm.research.bureau.index,

it is pretty easy to identify the shifts back and forth from Risk-on, to Risk-off.

We may be getting close to another "Risk-on" period, if the commodities can hold support.

 

78038252.gif

 

 

NOTE that:

=====

+ CU/Copper has a tendency to lead the other etfs

+ CRB is a good index to use as a coincident indicators for all the commodities

+ SLV/Silver tends to be the most volatile

+ GLD/Gold tends to LAG behind the others

 

Will the other indices soon give us a nice early warning that Gold is bottoming?

 

The first Risk-Off period has r-on and r-off phases within it.

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  • 3 weeks later...

Grains (as represented by DBA) are trying to find a bottom - a possible Double Bottom

 

DBA / Agricultural fund (mostly grains and other Ag products)... update

 

dba.gif

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Commodities remain under pressure

 

Raw-Material Bull Market Fading as Supply Expands: Commodities

Washington Post - 109 Minutes ago

(To get alerts for Commodities columns: SALT CMMKT) April 2 (Bloomberg) -- At a time when U.S. equities are trading near a record and the dollar is having its best start in three years, commodities will

 

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Corn prices plunge again because of high supplies

Yahoo! Finance - 4 Hours ago

Corn prices are plunging for a second straight trading day, following a government report last week that corn supplies are higher than expected. Corn skidded nearly 8 percent on Monday, down 53 cents Corn prices plunge again on high supplies Columbia Missourian all 1 news articles >> Add Comment Raw-Material Bull Market Fading as Supply Expands BusinessWeek all 1 n

 

NYMEX-Crude oil dips as U.S. inventories seen rising

Reuters India - 2 Hours ago

PERTH, April 2 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures slipped in early Asian trading on Tuesday after data showed an unexpected slowdown in U.S. manufacturing and on expectations that oil inventories would continue Crude oil dips as U.S. inventories seen rising

 

Copper Tumbles to Seven-Month Low as Metals Fall on Factory Data

BusinessWeek - 56 Minutes ago

Copper dropped for a third day to the lowest level in more than seven months as manufacturing in the U.S. and China, the biggest users, grew less than forecast. Aluminum declined to the cheapest since

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The Grain price dropped may have shocked some commodity holders, including Gold holders

 

JJG / iPath Dow Jones UBS Grains Subindex Total Return ETN ... update

 

74343865.gif

 

Perhaps the grain drop is nearly done, but I expect the low near $48 to be retested first.

If that comes on lower volume, that might be bullish

 

OTHER COMMODITIES

 

DBA / Ag Fund ... update

39929387.gif

 

CU / Copper etf ... update

87216002.gif

 

...and here's Crude Oil :

 

OILB / Brent Oil etf ... update

39463865.gif

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METALS-Copper slides after weak U.S. jobs report

Reuters - 4 Hours ago

* Copper near 8-month lows, more losses expected

* Chinese markets shut for a 2nd day of holidays

* Weak job gains cast shadow on U.S. economic outlook

 

Copper slides after weak U.S. jobs report Sharenet

 

Friday's data showed American employers hired at the slowest pace in nine

months in March, a sign that Washington's austerity drive could be stealing

momentum from the economy.

Concerns had already been growing about the outlook for the U.S. economic

recovery after weaker-than-expected data earlier this week on manufacturing

activity and private sector hiring.

"On balance, I think the down move we are seeing in commodities will

continue into next week," Meir added.

On Thursday, copper slumped to a low of $7,331.25, the weakest since August,

but bounced to close the day slightly higher.

Prices are down around 6 percent so far this year as inventories have

steadily climbed while demand in China has been disappointin

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The Copper drop was undertstandable (given the weak economic data)

But I would have liked to see stronger performance from GDX / Chart: GDX-CU-UGLD

 

Closing Levels:

======

CU - :

GDX :

GDL :

UGL :

ugld :

 

Call Option / UGL-May.$71 :

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Eventually, these moves could help Corn prices recover...

 

Rain, cold, snow to challenge U.S. wheat and corn crops

CNBC - 3 Hours ago

* Cold snap to threaten US winter wheat * Wet and cold weather stalling corn plantings * Another storm seen for later next week CHICAGO, April 9 (Reuters) - Rain, snow and a cold snap this week will add

 

(2) ANALYSIS-Argentine farms to shun corn as costs rise, crop prices fall

CNBC - 4 Hours ago

BUENOS AIRES, April 9 (Reuters) - Argentina will reduce its corn output next season as farmers - hobbled by high inflation and antagonistic government policies - brace for a record-high U.S. harvest likely

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