drbubb Posted April 29, 2013 Report Share Posted April 29, 2013 Olympic Station / and Tai Kok Tsui, Kowloon ================= The area near Olympic station consists of an Old and New part. With the New part = to the West / Old = to the East ... of the MTR station. "Old TKT" to the East of Olympic is changing fast : : : Park Ivy is at the corner of Ivy & Pine Street. On the west side (to the left of the station) is the newer part which is on landfilll and also on landfill is to the South of Old TKT on Hoi Wang Road which is a sort of continuation of Pine St. Hoi Wang Road is theconnection to lower West Kowloon and the XRL. : Hermitage: at the top of the Grand ChamberThe Old part of TKT (surrounding the so-called "Ivy St. and Pine St bend") is being gentrified ... Larger mapOlympic MTR Station (blue rectangle and red dot) is in the lower Left corner, and there is a covered walkwayrunning North from the MTR station, and terminating at the West ending of Ivy Street, the old Main St. of TKT. Map of Old Tai Kok Tsui / TKT ... Map with fewer labels ==== The new buildings in the Olympic Station area are mostly built on landfill- to the North of the area where the Express Rai to China (XRL) and WKCC are being built :Spending by the well off residents living in these new skyscrapers are feeding the ongoing gentrification,and making the old neighborhood nicer for everyone. Longer term, the proximity to the Express Train to China,should bring a continuing long term improvement. TKT MAP : highlighting Landfill areas - Ivy St. (brown) and Pine St / Hoi Wang Rd. (blue) : fewer lines ======= : GOOGmap/ source: http://www.chinatour...Kowloon-Map.jpg MTR Map -- Larger map and source (also shows SZ connections) ======== Olympic / TKT is North of Kowloon's most transformative development, the XRL station, and WKCC WEST KOWLOON Cultural Centre (WKCC), what's comingDec. 2011 Plan : Enlarged image : ( That park in the lower left is not central enough, to be optimally useful IMHO)/source: http://www.urbanphot...r-west-kowloon/ XRL Kowloon thread :: http://www.greenener...showtopic=17597 MTR Map (incl. SZ) - :: http://johomaps.com/as/hongkong/hkmetro_ch.jpg AX thread on TKT --- :: http://hongkong.asiaxpat.com/forums/hong-kong-property/threads/150218/the-olympic-station-tkt-thread/ ===LINK to here :: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-TKT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted August 9, 2013 Author Report Share Posted August 9, 2013 Park Avenue / Central Park is the key price bellwether in the Olympic area CCL-Index-update : below to 9/22/13 Property Prices in Olympic Station / TKT area, and Luxury Rents(Rents are for Hermitage, per LuxeHomes data, from March 2012).Mo.: CCLI-e: MetHbV: Isl.HrbV : ParkAve: Hermit.- Rent: yield : LongBch: HrbGrn: Cosmo:Jan. : $91.45 : $6,248 : $07,983 : $08,773 : $10,801 - 28.E : ==== : $08,000e $08,269 : $3,844 :Feb : $96.44 : $6,453 : $09,336 : $09,739 : $11,569 - 28.E : ==== : $08,164 : $08,517 : $4,460 :Mar : $96.98 : $6,573 : $09,257 : $09,771 : $12,008 - 28.E : ==== : $08,707 : $09,114 : $4,624 :Apr. : $97.60 : $6,913 : $09,239 : $09,977 : $11,229 - 28.E : ==== : $09,608 : $09,646 : $4,682 :May : $99.43 : $7,021 : $09,418 : $09,963 : $12,972 - 28.E : ==== : $09,619 : $09,532 : $4,591 :Jun. : $99.23 : $6,740 : $09,243 : $10,180 : $13,764 - 28.E : ==== : $09,274 : $09,879 : $4,451 :July : $99.11 : $6,956 : $08,879 : $09,966 : $13,809 - 29.E : ==== : $09,545 : $10,242 : $5,250 :Aug : $99.41 : $7,079 : $09,285 : $10,628 : $13,382 - 29.E : ==== : $09,600e $09,786 : $4,549 :Sep : $99.21 : $6,883 : $09,233 : $10,433 : $12,344 - 29.E : ==== : $09,600e $09,608 : $4,647 :Oct. : $97.94 : $6,683 : $09,150 : $10,319 : $13,851 - 29.E : ==== : $10,083 : $09,826 : $4,306 :Nov. : $97.24 : $6,466 : $09,186 : $10,442 : $11,412 - 29.E : ==== : $10,000e $09,397 : $4,670 :Dec. : $96.68 : $6,615 : $09,100 : $10,147 : $12,951 - 29.E : ==== : $08,935 : $09,547 : $4,835 :2012Jan. : $94.47 : $06,635 : $08,770 : $$9,663 : $12,480 - 30.E : 2.9% e $09,950 : $08,598 : $4,942 :Feb : $95.15 : $06,615 : $08,449 : $$9,638 : $12,907 - 30.E : 2.8% e $09,694 : $09,313 : $4,601 :Mar : 100.16 : $07,046 : $09,296 : $10,105 : $13,900 - 31.2 : 2.69% : $09,745 : $09,681 : $4,766 :Apr. : 101.12 : $07,350 : $09,841 : $$9,904 : $14,496 - 30.2 : 2.50% : $09,820 : $10,181 : $4,805 :May : 104.00 : $07,300 : $09,643 : $10,714 : $13,832 - 29.3 : 2.54% : $09,359 : $10,152 : $5,259 :Jun. : 104.60 : $07,182 : $09,241 : $10,906 : $12,918 - 30.6 : 2.84% : $09,843 : $09,637 : $5,226 :July : 106.54 : $06,886 : $09,663 : $11,145 : $14,175 - 33.0 : 2.79% : $10,892 : $10,582 : $4,872 :Aug : 106.89 : $07,312 : $09,622 : $11,201 : $15,294 - 35.1 : 2.75% : $10,044 : $09,940 : $5,126 :Sep : 110.14 : $07,851: $10,018 : $10,804 : $12,891 - 35.9 : 3.34% : $10,060 : $10,362 : $4,997 :Oct. : 114.35 : $08,058 : $09,925 : $10,805 : $15,105 - 34.5 : 2.74% : $10,250 : $10,514 : $5,746 :Nov. : 115.05 : $08,192 : $10,293 : $11,749 : $13,514 - 35.8 : 3.18% : $09,697 : $10,876 : $5,992 :Dec. : 115.78 : $08,437 : $10,432 : $11,161 : $13,500 - 36.8 : 3.27% : $09,890 : $10,789 : $6,040 :2013Jan. : 119.13 : $08,783 : $10,670 : $11,039 : $13,500 - 34.6 : 3.08% : $09,707 : $11,026 : $6,135Feb : 121.64 : $08,526 : $10,917 : $12,147 : $13,197 - 33.8 : 3.07% : $10,654 : $10,932 : $5,872Mar : 123.01 : $08,892 : $11,419 : $12,430 : $13,879 - 33.6 : 2.91% : $10,342 : $11,754 : $6,753Apr. : 118.84 : $08,692 : $10,673 : $12,150 : $12,885 - 35.0 : 3.26% : $10,067 : $14,076 : $5,,895May : 119.06 : $08,217 : $10,026 : $11,649 : $13,650 - 37.4 : 3.29% : $10,000 e $10,665 : $6,499Jun. : 121.88 : $08,319 : $10,111 : $11,890 : $13,634 - 31.8 : 2.80% : $10,000 e $11,527 : $6,259July : 120.95 : $08,290 : $10,076 : $11,850 : $12,233 - 32.0 : 3.14 % : $10,414 : $11,224 : $6,627 Aug : 119.85 : $08,625 : $10,018 : $11,826 : $14,518 - 34.3 : 2.84 % : $11,096 : $10,393 : $6,866 Sep : 120.00 : $08,494 : $10,051 : $11,826 : $14,563 - 35.7 : 2.94 % : $11,000 : $11,878 : $6,053 Oct. : 119.50 : $08,566 ; $10,576 : $11,958 : $16,518 - 35.1 : 2.54 % : $08,618 : $11,413 : $6,826 Nov : 120.39 : $08,595 : $10,449 : $12,000 : $14,780 - 33.9 : 3.00 % : $10,000 : $10,544 : $6,409 Dec.: 119.07 : $08,849 : $10,783 : $12,325 : $15,000 - 33.9 : 3.00 % : $10,000 : $10,530 : $6,239 === Mo.: -CCLI-e : MetHbVw : Isl.HrbVw : ParkAve : Hermit.- Rent : yield% : LongBch : HrbGrn. : Cosmo: ================== See also: XRL thread : http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=17597 (Uses Month-end figures from CL, where available)/source : CCLI : http://hk.centadata.com/cci/cci_e.htm / Historical : http://202.72.14.52/...rchHistory.aspx/source- Price: Hermitage : http://hk.centadata....t&code2=&page=0/source- TLB, HGR, COS : http://hk.centadata....ode=2EEPPWPPVPW/source- Rents: Luxehomes (SAVED for more links / or Estate Agent ads) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted August 10, 2013 Author Report Share Posted August 10, 2013 SELECTED EXCERPTS from AX's thread on Tai Kok Tsui : most posts by OffThePeak===================(1)Tai Kok Tsui versus Sai Yun Pun / TKT vs SYP===Why not buy somewhere that ALREADY has an MTR station, and is only 7-8 minutes (two stations) away from Hong Kong station?That's Tai Kok Tsui, and it is gentrifying, as older buildings get pulled down, and new high-rises go up. Best of all, you can WALK to the express train to China when it is completed / maybe 15 to 18 mins away. I think one could argue that the Express Train will have a greater positive impact on TKT than the MTR stations will on SYP - since the MTR is arguably "already priced in" to SYP prices.(2)What will drive price appreciation in TKT is:+ Ongoing gentrification and new buildings+ More Grade-A offices, bringing new jobs+ The spending power of the new residents, which improves retail and infrastructure+ Some excitement (just as there has been in SYP) as the Express Train station gets closer to completionI took a walk around the area yesterday, and we were struck by how the area is beginning to "come together" with the area in front of Park Avenue/ Central Park being the "central chamber" of a huge outdoor corridor with the greenery of Cherry Park adding to the positive feeling there.In future, people will walk through that corridor, under the highway into the heart of TKT. Park Summit could have been a great development (it looks good from the outside), but the rooms within the flats are too small for my taste, but others may disagree.(3)"The Dark Side" versus "The Back Side"(Talking about how extending the Tung Chung Line to Causeway Bay and beyond will have an impact...)This new connection through Tamar, the Convention Hall and Causeway Bay will make those living along the Tung Chung line feel more connected with HK Island. There are some who do not like that long walk from HK Station to Central, and now they will be able to avoid it for many of their journeys.This new line will also connect the Eastern part of HK Island better to the (coming) Express train to China and to the airport.And I do genuinely see this as evidence that the "heart of the HKSAR" is now moving towards Kowloon, and very possibly to TKT. Admit it.=====It amazes me that some "historians" still living on HK Island still call Kowloon "the dark side" when there are so many important developments coming here (XRL, WK Cultural district etc) which are threatening to put HK Island "in the shade."How long before I will be winding up Lloyd by calling HK Island "the new dark side"? Or even "The Backside" (reflecting its backwards looking status.) ? Long Beach area - before Imperial Cullinan was built (4)PRICE COMPARISONS for mid-April 2013- TKT benchmark Park Avenue compared with others on the Tung Chung / and TKO LinesYou can get a nice modernised 2BR flat in an older building (just less than 40 years old) about 5 minutes walk from Olympic station in Tai Kok Tsui for under $3 Million - and then rent it for more than 4% Gross Rental yield.Here are some comparative figures for Per SF, Gross and New :"The TC/TKO Through Line" : using Tower 3, 30-C Flat Bank Valuations (mostly)====Area: Estate Name == : -04/14/13 : %-TKT : Flat== : BkValue : SFgr/net : PSFnet : Effic% : Yrs :TKO : ParkC/ Cent.Hts. : $07,712 : 63.2% : T3-30C : $7.47 M : 899/691 : 10,810 : 76.9% : 10 :TKoo Tsui Woo Terrace : $11,936 : 97.9% : T3-25C : $6.07 M : 585/489 : 12,413 : 83.6% : 35 :TKT : ParkAv/CentPark : $12,198 : 100.% : T3-30C : $12.3 M : 943/659 : 18,665 : 69.9% : 12 :TsYi : Tierre Verde ----- : $09,628 : 78.9% : T3-30C : $8.90 M : 951/765 : 11,634 : 80.4% : 14 :TCC : Caribbean Coast : $05,795 : 47.5% : T3-30C : $4.31 M : 680/507 : $8,501 : 74.6% : 11 :(Adding in the property mentioned above):TKT : "Older Building" - : $06,338 : 52.0% : XXhi-# : $2.70*M : 426/326 : $8,282: 76.5% : 38 :(5)What is the importance of Express Rail Link? (XRL)===="The 26-km long Hong Kong Section of the Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Express Rail Link (Express Rail Link, or XRL) runs from West Kowloon in Hong Kong to the boundary of Hong Kong and Shenzhen. The Express Rail Link will connect with the 16,000-km National High-speed Railway Network and will enhance Hong Kong's role as the southern gateway to the Mainland. Construction of the Express Rail Link commenced in January 2010, with completion targeted for 2015."(Following a period of trial operation, the passenger service is planned for the second half of 2015.)===/see: http://www.expressraillink.hk/en/home/Estimated Journey TimeBetween Hong Kong and Futian, Shenzhen : 14 minutesBetween Hong Kong and Shenzhen North-- : 23 minutesBetween Hong Kong and Guangzhou South: 48 minutesThe Terminus in West Kowloon, with convenient linkage to Kowloon Station and Austin Station, will be well connected to the Tung Chung Line, the Airport Express Line and the West Rail Line. The Public Transport Interchange, located at the north of the Terminus, will be only a short walk away, providing simple connection to bus and mini-bus facilities. A taxi rank will be contained within the West Kowloon Terminus.This image will give you some idea of the distances involved: (XRL to TKT, that "green" building at the Top is Park Summit whilst under construction):http://img832.images...35/xrltotkt.jpg :: XRL-thread : http://tinyurl.com/GEI-XRL(6)"I'm still new to HK so maybe my opinion does not count, but I went to a fair number of popular HKI residences and they were all terrible dumps. Belchers, Merton, Kornhill, etc - you could not pay me to live in the apartments I saw..."- L---, on the Main property thread on AXSure - that's Hong Kong Island, and Islander mentality.The brain-dead folk who live there refer to Kowloon as the "dark side", and refuse to visit, creating a barrier which allows those who are more open minded to cross the harbor (paying less than a cab for a quick MTR ride), and live better for less money.And this stupidity is supported by the Expat Estate Agents, who make bigger commissions on those crappy-but-expensive flats than they ought to be getting for pushing expats into over-priced "luxury" flats in crowded Mid-Levels.Those of us who live in Kowloon, or the NT are laughing...=== ===(6B)Putting on my geek hat, here's the actual data:Mid-levels, and Hong Kong Island are weakWeek: CCLI : TaikSh: RobinPl: Clovell/ Isl.Harb: ParkA: Waterf: Sorrent: TArch : C'ribC :==== .07/07: 119.69: 10,464 : 13,387 : 23,749 / 10,136 : 11,920 : 14,415 : 16,132 : 21,930 : 6,236 :06/30: 121.88: 12,021 : 13,502 : 23,950 / 10,111 : 11,890 : 14,432 : 16,152 : 21,957 : 6,233 :Peak03/17: 123.66: 12,302 : 16,180 : 23,926 / 11,336 : 12,339 : 13,936 : 16,305 : 22,144 : 6,441 :YrEnd12/30: 115.78: 11,665 : 14,985 : 22,244 /10,432 : 11,161 : 12,740 : 16,316 : 22,189 : 6,053 :======VersusYrEnd +3.28%: -10.3%: -10.7%: +5.81%/ -2.84%: +6.80%: +13.1%: -1.10%: -1.17%: +3.04%Peak- - 3.21%: -14.9%: -17.2%: - 0.74%/ -10.6%: -3.34%: +3.44%: -1.06%: -0.97%: - 3.18%Look at those HUGE drops in Taikoo Shing and Robinson Place, down -14.9%, and -17.2% from the peak.Caribbean Coast in Tung Chung, is basically tracking the index, some 3% ahead of year-end, but 3% below the peak.The real outperformance area seems to be Kowloon Central, where the Express Train to China will be completed in about 2 years time. Two properties (Sorrento and The Arch), were hovering around peak prices, while The Waterfront was more than 3% ABOVE the price at 3/17, when the Centaline Index hit its peak. Two properties in the Olympic area were mixed with Park Avenue outperforming the index since year-end by almost 4%, but Island Harborview, which is a longer walk from the XRL, down, but only -2.8% off year-end prices.===/source : http://hongkong.asia...ion-tkt-thread/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted August 10, 2013 Author Report Share Posted August 10, 2013 Olympic / Tai Kok Tsui - Major Modern Developments Island Harbourview (1998) is the first private housing estate to be built in the newly reclaimed area. It is located next to Olympian City 1 and is built by Sun Hung Kai Properties. There are 9 blocks in total which forms an 'L' shape. Blocks 1,2,3,5 and 6 faces East/West while Blocks 7,8,9 and 10 face North/South. The estate has a clubhouse with many facilities such as a swimming pool and 2 badminton courts. Its location is 11 Hoi Fai Road Tai Kok Tsui, but its car entrance is at Hoi Fan Road (near the intersection with Hoi Fai Road)Central Park is a private housing estate located in the area. It's one of the projects of MTR Olympic Station Phase II and is built on the reclaimed land of old Yau Ma Tei Typhoon Shelter. Developed by the consortium of MTR Corporation, Sino Land, Kerry Properties, Bank of China (Hong Kong) and China Overseas Land and Investment in 2000, it comprises 4 high-rise buildings (Block 1,2,3,5) with a total of 1,344 units.Harbour Green is a private estate that's part of the Olympic Station Phase III project. It comprises five 48 or 56 floors towers with a total of 1,514 units. It was jointly developed by Sun Hung Kai Properties and MTR Corporation and completed in 2007. The Long Beach was developed by Hang Lung at 8 Hoi Fai Road provides 1829 units, and perhaps 1,000 units have not yet been offered for sale.The Hermitage is a private estate located above the newly developed Olympian City 3.Florient Rise (formerly Cherry Street Project, ) is a private estate in Cherry Street. It was jointly developed by Nan Fung Group and Urban Renewal Authority (URA) in 2008] and completed the construction in May 2009. It comprises three blocks with a total of 522 units. There's a residential block called "Hoi Ming Court" in the middle of the site which was excluded from the redevelopment project due to its young age and high acquisition cost. Florient Rise was built around Hoi Ming Court.One Silversea is a private estate located at the waterfront site of the former Tai Kok Tsui Temporary Bus Terminus, it was developed by Sino Land and completed in 2006.Imperial Cullinan ... (newest and most expensive property in area; built by Sun Hung Kai Properties)Shining Heights, at 83 Sycamore Street, was developed by Hong Kong Ferry (Holdings) Company Limited and its parent company, Henderson Land Development. It was formerly Hong Kong Ferry Staff Quarters It comprises one tower with a total of 348 units, which was completed in 2009.Metro Harborview :===/Wiki : http://en.wikipedia....ki/Tai_Kok_Tsui(Older Properties)Cosmopolitan EstatesCharming Gardens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted August 10, 2013 Author Report Share Posted August 10, 2013 IVY STREET and PARK SUMMIT - are in the "heart" of Old Tai Kok TsuiIVY Street is the old main shopping street, now gentrifying with many new restaurants.PINE Street is catching up, as engineering shops become restaurants, and food marts.Black-n-White, on Ivy StreetHead for the Bar at the Top of the Rosedale Hotel - to view the area from many stories up ... map w/o labelsView from the Rosedale, Looking WestHere's Park Summit - with the Black and gray-striped Rosedale Hotel in front, Looking East.Park Summit Tower Two, is at the corner of Ivy St and Pine St., and there is also a new developmentthere, not yet completed, which is called Park Ivy.Map - Park Summit dominates the Ivy / Pine bend (along with the new Park Ivy ) / see : GOOG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted August 10, 2013 Author Report Share Posted August 10, 2013 RESTAURANTS along the Ivy St / Pine St. nexusRestaurant List / I may even add some reviews later on this threadIvy StreetSOUTH-------------------------- :#061 : McDonalds065 : Chinese Fried food069 : Chinese Congee073 : Fulum Restaurant (upstairs)07? : Bakery08? : Golden Sands091 : Sunny Thai Restaurant09? : Chinese, Red Pepper101 : Valentino Chocolate103 : Hai Nan Chicken10? : Japan Sushi105 : Sun Fung Wine Cellar119 : SMART PepperoniNORTH-------------------------- :070 : Share Tea072 : Chinese, Large restaurant080 : Park N Shop090 : Korean Restaurant092 : (Closed Restaurant)09? : Noble09? : Japanese Restaurant100 : Black N White102 : Iwate Zen Japanese116 : Chinese, Hotpot118 : Kebab and Curry===Photos ---Cosmopolitan Estates at the Corner of Ivy St., has a McDonald's Restaurant in the Ground floorTKT Restaurants................. :: http://www.openrice....t...id=2005&s=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted August 12, 2013 Author Report Share Posted August 12, 2013 "Hermitage Grand Chamber" in following photosLOOKING South towards Kowloon Station and the XRLxx Tai Kok Tsui side of WK Terminus / Hoi Wang Rd. etc(From the North, before Train station construction began) (View from the Top of the Rosedale Hotel, looking West)================ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted October 4, 2013 Author Report Share Posted October 4, 2013 Latest Price chart - Park Avenue / Central Park Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted October 18, 2013 Author Report Share Posted October 18, 2013 CCI index : http://hk.centadata.com/cci/cci_e.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted October 23, 2013 Author Report Share Posted October 23, 2013 (Something about TKT shops at the end of this): AX: http://hongkong.asiaxpat.com/forums/hong-kong-property/threads/150502/meet-hong-kongs-new-centrals/ "OFFICE RENTS in Central may fall by 20 per cent with 18 months" - SCMPTenants are moving to outlying areas, where rents are up to 50 per cent lowerSome grade A buildings have been vacant for a year, as stubborn landlords refused to cut rents - Up to one million sf of space are unlet in Central.Some small hedge funds have shut down, and left their spacesCENTRAL : Estimates of Unlet space:===1998 : 3.4 mn sf2003 : 2.5 mn sf2013 : 1.1 mn sfCauseway Bay and Quarry Bay : Rents are Half to 2/3rds of Central====== In Pine St, in TKT, I have seen a big jump in vacant storefronts in the last two months, including now 4 Retail spaces in a row, with one of them having a notice saying the previous tenant would have to forfeit his deposit.I think if rents fall, then prices will too, since yields had been stated to be only 1-2%, and such low yields are not sustainable when rents are starting to fall IMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traineeinvestor Posted October 23, 2013 Report Share Posted October 23, 2013 Agree - too many landlords are asking for too much money. Vacancies are popping up in many areas on HK Island as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted November 2, 2013 Author Report Share Posted November 2, 2013 THE LONG BEACH / Notes on pricing Note the near 11% premium (psf) on Tower 7, the "newest" Tower to be launched Flat.No: BkOfChina: List.Price / Net = Per SFnet ====== t3.30b: $7.440m : $8.401m / 550 = $15,275 t3.51b: $8.280m : $8.418m / 552 = $15,250 t3.51c: $8.280m : $8.376m / 552 = $15,174 t5.31c: $7.720m : $8.834m / 569 = $15,525 t6.50c: $8.670m : $8.441m / 554 = $15,236 = Aver: $8.078m : $8.494m / 555 = $15,304 x75%= $11,478 psf (mid and upper floors) ==== t7.47b: ======= : $9.808m / 560 = $17,514 t7.47c: ======= : $9.215m / 570 = $16,167 t7.47e: ====== : $10.085m / 562 = $17,945 = Aver: ======= : $9.703m / 564 = $17,204 t7.30b: ======= : $9.518m / 562 = $16,935 t7.30c: ======= : $8.943m / 569 = $15,717 t7.30e: ======= : $9.787m / 567 = $17,261 = Aver: ======= : $9.416m / 566 = $16,636 ==== =T7ave ======= : $9.560m / 565 = $16,919 : +10.6% / mid and upper floors Ceiling Heights ========== : mm's--- : /304.8 + 5-/fl - 48/f : 2800mm : 9.186 ft : + 49th floor- : 2800mm : 9.186 ft : + 50th floor- : 3150mm : 10.33 ft : + 315mm : +11.3% + 51st floor- : 3100mm : 10.17 ft : + 300mm : +10.7% + 52nd floor : 3100mm : 10.17 ft Compare: Island Harbourview Central Park/ Park Avenue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted November 4, 2013 Author Report Share Posted November 4, 2013 The first 80 units at LB - were priced right, and easily sold out There were 1,565 cheques held for the 80 units - and the discount (to List prices) was 18%, permitting a quick sale. The new discount for the next 60 units is: 16% (2% less than before), but List prices are less attractive. Now Hang Lung is offering some more 3BR flats : In Tower 3 with an impaired view (the E units of 766 sf, net) - at---- : List price : psf-net/ less 16% : psf-net ====== + 23-E : $12,157M : $15,817 / $10,212M : $13,332 + 35-E : $12,403M : $16,192 / $10,419M : $13,602 + 47-E*: $12,678M : $16,508 / $10,650M : $13,867 ====== In Tower 5 on lower floors (A units of 841 sf, net) - at---- : List price : psf-net/ less 16% : psf-net ====== + 05-A : $14,632M : $17,398 / $12,291M : $14,615 + 20-A : $15,047M : $17,892 / $12,639M : $15,029 ====== In Tower 6 middle, and higher floors (the B units of 766 sf, net) - at---- : List price : psf-net/ less 16% : psf-net ====== + 25-B : $12,701M : $16,581 / $10,669M : $13,928 + 35-B : $12,932M : $16,883 / $10,863M : $14,181 + 48-B*: $13,272M : $17,281 / $11,148M : $14,516 ====== *768 sf, at 43rd/fl and higher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted November 7, 2013 Author Report Share Posted November 7, 2013 A Neat Trick: LB is now selling at a PREMIUM to 2nd Hand (I suppose the agents aren't telling their clients this, because of the greater commissions they get from New Properties. The crazy thing is: Now the agent must "Sell" the property, and then Hope the client wins the lucky draw to make a sale): Not long ago, The Long Beach had 1,000 vacant flats to sell. + 80 are gone at 18% discounts to List prices + 60 are now on offer* at 16% discounts to List. Most of the Remaining flats have "List" prices well above secondhand, and the premium of List to secondhand is MORE than the discount. ===== *HL has planned a great "trick" for property buyers. They are getting investors to focus on the discount, not the actual list prices, or prices net of discount. This trick will work, if people keep buying thinking they are getting a bargain because of the big discount. But guess what: the LIST prices in Towers 7 and 8 are so high, even after a big discount, they will be paying something ABOVE the second hand prices in the other "older" Towers. Here's the back-up for this statement: "older" towers (Towers 3,5,6): Originally launched in Oct. 2007, and later THESE ARE LIST PRICES: Flat.No: BkOfChina: List.Price / Net = Per SFnet = Premium to Bank Valuation ====== (T3,5,6) t3.30b: $7.440m : $8.401m / 550 = $15,275 t5.31c: $7.720m : $8.834m / 569 = $15,525 = Aver: $7.580m : $8.618m / 560 = $15,389 : 13.7% to 2nd Hand ($13,535 BofC) ==== (Tw.8) t8.29b: ======= : $9.056m / 550 = $16,465 t8.29e: ======= : $8,761m / 550 = $15,929 t8.29f : ====== : $10.456m / 566 = $18,473 t8.32b: ======= : $9.110m / 550 = $16,564 t8.32e: ======= : $8.814m / 550 = $16,025 = Aver: ======= : $9.239m / 553 = $16,707 : 23.4% to 2nd Hand ($13,535 BofC) (Tw.7) t7.30b: ======= : $9.518m / 562 = $16,935 t7.30c: ======= : $8.943m / 569 = $15,717 t7.30e: ======= : $9.787m / 567 = $17,261 = Aver: ======= : $9.416m / 566 = $16,636 : 22.9% to 2nd Hand ($13,535 BofC) > AX: http://hongkong.asiaxpat.com/forums/hong-kong-property/threads/151878/hk-developers-game:-cut-prices?/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted November 7, 2013 Author Report Share Posted November 7, 2013 From AX: In reacton to the above post on The Long Beach ============== (1) punter They should just keep it OTP. There's no need for them to sell (2) OffThePeak Yeah.They have plenty of cash, and not many landholdings in HK(Apart from their large rental portfolio.)I am pretty sure, they will keep selling, as long as the market will absorb higher and higher prices. They have done launch 2. Let's see if they get to steps 3, 4, ... and so on.The big advantage they have now, is TLB is one of the last "new" projects in the Kowloon Station and Olympic Station area.(The next West Kowloon "hotspot" might be Nam Cheong station, when SHKP's new project comes on stream there.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted November 25, 2013 Author Report Share Posted November 25, 2013 (from an AX thread): Further Update on The Long Beach I double checked some information over the weekend, and came up with some slight different info. There have been 4-5 batches of sales at TLB. + Since the original launch a few weeks ago, there have been two price RISES: +5%, and +1% in the LIST prices. (this was true on several flats I checked, but may not be exactly true on ALL the flats.) + Discounts have been cut from: 18% to 16% + Also, List prices on the flats in Tower 8, are perhaps 10-15% higher than in Towers 3,5,and 6 - for similar layouts, views, and floors. Let's compare: (this is very approximate) === Tower : Orig.List: +5%+1%: -16% discount---- : 550 sfs Twr.6 : $15,000 : $15,900 : $13,356 per sf. Net : $7.346 Mn Twr.8 : $16,000 : $16,960 : $14,246 per sf. Net : $7.836 Mn This is a rough estimate of the per square foot price of similar flats, where the secondary market price for this flat might be: + $10,360 per sq. foot., and $14,000 psf, Net x 550= $7.700M The overall conclusion is that most recent selling prices in Tower 8 are at or above the secondary market. But agents are still pushing the "new" flats hard, since the commission they get from Hang Lung, the developer is 3%, versus the 1% commission they might get from selling secondhand. There are now less than 10 flats left in the latest batch. And one agent that I spoke to said he thought: "HL might halt further new sales. They may hold back for high prices, since they have already sold over 200 flats at fair prices. And their habits is to sell a few batches at a time. They still have all of Towers 1,2 and 9 to sell... But they are very unpredictable." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted December 1, 2013 Author Report Share Posted December 1, 2013 The Long Beach has released at New Price List:29.Nov : http://www.hanglung.com/en/hong-kong-properties/residential/the-long-beach-price-list.aspxPrices are high enough, that prospective buyers are also view secondhand flats(it would seem.) But agents are still mainly pushing the new flats, because of he higher commissions they can earn. ====== Pricing - on a high floor of Tower 7 ======= L1 : 23 Oct 7-47B : $9.808 7-47C : $9.215 == L2 : 03 Nov / 07/11 Nov : + Pct.% : 19 Nov. : + Pct. % : 7-47B : $9.808 : $10.298 : +5.00% : $10.401: +1.00% : 7-47C : $9.215 : $ 9.678. : +5.02% : $ 9.773. : +0.98% : == L3 : 29 Nov 7-48B : $10.443: +0.40% 7-48C : $ 9.812 : +0.40% ===== Initial discount was 18%, and is now set at : + 16% (for buyers completing inside 60 days) + 14% (for buyers completing inside 90 days) Want to Buy one of these flats on the 48th floor of Tower? You cannot. You can only Buy one of the 28 flats in the present batch. (the highest floor in Tower 7 in this batch is on the 16th floor.) Even then, you must summit a $300K cheque into the Lucky Draw which will be held on 7 Dec. 2013, at 10 am. Good luck in getting a low number. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted December 2, 2013 Author Report Share Posted December 2, 2013 FALSE Advertising at Imperial Cullinan (from AX): L-1: "Scanning through The Visionary & The Austin 200+ page brochures I noticed that they are fully devoid of any images representing what the estates are intended to look like. Websites, newspapers and ads are also turning up nothing. I'm assuming that there is a government regulation which prevents developers from releasing computer generated images of their estates now? If so, what exactly is an owner-occupier thinking when they purchase a property that they cannot see and cannot access for 2+ years? They are buying a volume of a layout in suspended in space - no clue as what the exterior nor interior styles are like." OTP : Yeah, it is risky.But HK People and some mainlanders were long "educated" to prefer New properties, and to pay a premium for them.There has been plenty of disappointment, when they finally get the key. Just look at the advertising for Imperial Cullinan, and the difference between ...Video-1:= http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yWaQgYkidVc =(Can anyone explain the connection between the following Video-2 show and Imperial Cullinan? Was it just a promotion to give some mainland chinese buyers a mistaken impression about WHAT and WHERE I.C. was?):Video-2:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xttN9P4ahKcCompare these two Videos and THIS image:...with the final result:Video-3:= http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mijq7BTPMsM =(Awkwardly sandwiched between OneSilverSea and The Long Beach, but priced at a premium to its neighbors with better views.)Plainly speaking, I.C.'s advertising was a Big Fat Lie ! (In hindsight, it appears that the advertising for I.C. was one of the "pinnacles" of false promotion in the HK property market.)Like property promoters everywhere, HK Developers are skilled at selling Dreams - the reality often doesn't live up to it. Still, the Olympic Station area is a good and pleasant place to live IMHO. === > AX: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted January 18, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 18, 2014 / The Long Beach is developed by Hang Lung at 8 Hoi Fai Road provides 1829 units / UPDATE on TLB, (from OTP /AX) The Long Beach is making steady progress on selling the remaining "leftover" flats. : Top floor units : Very expensive Two weeks ago, there were 17 flats still available. As of Saturday, it was down to just 10 flats, of which 3 were very high floor expensive units, at over $40 million. There is only one "normal" E-flat left in Tower 3, from what I could see. (8th-floor). I suppose people are waiting to see if Hang Lung will release another batch of "popular" units, that sell out quickly. Perhaps they will do that around Chinese New Year, at higher prices, if the market holds up well. In the meantime, I would not be surprised to see some buyers snapping up secondhand flats, since the trend for the "new" ones has been steady price rises in each new batch. == == "Have they sold out the remaining units in TLB?" - P--r (on the CYL thread) They were down to only 10 leftover flats, last time I checked - And it is probably less than that now. Some of those (at least 3), were very expensive ($40 Million+) large flats at the top of the building. The rest, are lower floors: with poor layouts, or no views. So among the 20 "new" flats* they are about to launch, may be some of the more desirable layouts, that are likely to sell fast. They may raise the price again. And I know that the secondary market at TLB is starting to stir again. The funny thing is that one of the banks (HSBC) cut their bank evaluations when the first batch was released at big discounts to test the market. BofC mostly held their old prices. Now that the "new" properties are selling at higher and higher prices, you would have expected HSBC to put valuations back up. Last time I checked they had not done it yet. === === Tower-7 Layout : source : T7 : T3-high *In Edit: I have seen the list. All 20 flats are D-Units in Tower 7. The floors involved range from 5D ($14,307K: $17,773psf-N, before discount) to 47D ($15,888K: $19,165psf-N.) And the next date of sale is Jan. 17th. HL is now collecting cheques for the lottery. Price Lists: http://www.hanglung.com/en/hong-kong-properties/residential/the-long-beach-price-list.aspx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Traineeinvestor Posted February 19, 2014 Report Share Posted February 19, 2014 Dr Bubb Thanks for the information on TKT/Olympic and the tour yesterday. Some very brief comments here: http://aprivateportfolio.blogspot.hk/2014/02/hong-kong-property-tai-kok-tsui.html As an investor, the small retail and residential units in older buildings are far more appealing than expensive new residential units. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted February 20, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 20, 2014 COMMENT on TST / ... and DATABASE : for Cosmo Estates vs. Metro HV, Harb.Grn. "As an investor, the small retail and residential units in older buildings are far more appealing than expensive new residential units." - Trainee Investor Yes. I do agree with that. But for those who want a flat for own use, it may make sense to pay up, to get the unit they want to live in. But I would be very reluctant to buy anything now for more than $10-12 Million. A gradual but persistent "upwards" shift of Cosmo Estates relative to some more modern and expensive estates, also shows the shifting relative preference towards the "lower ticket" older estates. ============== Cosmo Estates === Improving relative value : : == > source: http://data.28hse.com/en/datarecord2555.html Cosmo Estates -- Metro Harb. Vw. -- Harbour Green - Mo: $ PSF : No :/ $ PSF : No. : pct / $ PSF : No. : pct. : 09 Je : 3,029 : 10 :/ 4,336 : 78 : 70% / 06,948 : 18 : 44% D : 3,220 : 09 :/ 4,661 : 52 : 69% / 06,904 : 10 : 47% 10 Je : 3,351 : 05 :/ 5,220 : 38 : 64% / 13,906 : 15 :(24%) D : 4,023 : 07 :/ 5,858 : 47 : 69% / 08,670 : 25 : 46% 11 Je : 4,484 : 08 :/ 6,579 : 19 : 68% / 10,169 : 12 : 44% D : 4,215 : 04 :/ 6,087 : 23 : 69% / 09,537 : 05 : 44% 12 J. : 3,824 : 04 :/ 6,087 : 06 : F. : 4,580 : 04 :/ 6,705 : 13 : M : 4,889 : 10 :/ 7,028 : 47 : A : 5,330 : 02 :/ 6,767 : 35 : J. : 5,005 : 07 :/ 6,715 : 15 : 75% / 09,806 : 06 : 51% Jl : 4,926 : 02 :/ 7,141 : 16 : A : 5,172 : 11 :/ 7,144 : 37 : S : 3,891 : 02 :/ 7,587 : 36 : O : 5,139 : 05 :/ 7,881 : 28 : N : 6,007 : 10 :/ 7,986 : 30 : D : 6,212 : 03 :/ 7,401 : 12 : 84% / 19,684 : 04 :(32%) 13 : J. : 6,158 : 03 :/ 8,103 : 12 : 76% / 10,942 : 08 : 56% F. : 5,910 : 04 :/ 8,879 : 17 : M : 5,996 : 06 :/ 7,112 : 10 : A : 5,857 : 05 :/ 7,538 : 07 : M : 5,562 : 05 :/ 8,192 : 14 : J. : 6,416 : 10 :/ 8,265 : 17 : 78% / 12,408 : 02 : 52% Jl : 4,913 : 02 :/ 8,760 : 18 : A : 6,924 : 05 :/ 8,552 : 09 : S : 6,210 : 03 :/ 7,671 : 15 : O : 7,034 : 02 :/ 8,193 : 11 : N : 6,465 : 06 :/ 8,397 : 04 : D : 6,238 : 04 :/ 7,274 : 08 : 86% / 10,532 : 04 : 59% 14 J. : 7,174 : 04 :/ 8,355 : 06 : 86% / 11,030 : 03 : 65% F. : 6,148 : 03 :/ 8,609 : 06 : 71% / 11,030 : 00 : 56% M : 7,322 : 02 :/ 7,123 : 12: 103%/ 10,203 : 04 : 72% A : 6,591 : 05 :/ 8,241 : 17 : 80 %/ 14,285 : 08 : 46% M : 7,183 : 06 :/ 8,566 : 26 : 84 %/ 11,617 : 03 : 62% J. : 6,715 : 07 :/ 7,781 : 22 : 86 %/ 14,217 : 08 : 47% Jl : 6,822 : 02 :/ 8,757 : 23 : 78 %/ 10,639 : 08 : 64% == '16 M : 7,873 : 00 :/ 9,185 : 00 : 86%/ 11,569 : 00 : 68% A : 7,290 : 02 :/ 9,190 : 00 : 00%/ 10,917 : 00 : 00% M : 7,532 : 09 :/ 9,362 : 00 : 00%/ 10,879 : 00 : 00% J. : 8,222 : 01 :/ 9,322 : 00 : 00%/ 11,679 : 00 : 00% Jl : 7,942 : 04 :/ 9,835 : 00 : 00%/ 11,816 : 00 : 00% A : 7,973 : 04 :/ 9,921 : 00 : 00%/ 12,013 : 00 : 00% S : 7,704 : 07 / 10,003: 00 : 00%/ 12,392 : 00 : 00% O : 7,258 : 05 / 10,241: 00 : 00%/ 12,738 : 00 : 00% N : 9.094 : 06 / 11,036: 00 : 00%/ 11,982 : 00 : 00% D : 8,020 : 07 / 11,080: 00 : 00%/ 13,201 : 00 : 00% J. : 8,773 : 06 / 10.953: 00 : 00%/ 13,282 : 00 : 00% F : 8,392 : 03 / 10,973: 00 : 76%/ 13,684 : 00 : 66% M : 8,392 : 00: Cosmo Est.s - Metro Harb. Vw. - Harbour Green - ==== Cosmo Estates (39 years old, with flats under $3 Million), has crept up from starting in 2009 until now, from: + Under 70% of Metro Harbour View (10 yrs) to 86% of the value, and + Under 50% of Harbour Green (10 yrs) to 65%-70% of its value, These are based upon prices based on Value per Sf, Gross. Efficiency Measures are: : Cosmo Estates: 77% : Metro-Harbor View: 69-70 % : Harbour Green: 77 % ==== Metro Harbour View SqFt's H-hse List: http://www.squarefoot.com.hk/haunted/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted March 10, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 10, 2014 WHAT DOES "ISOLATED" mean in TKT ? (and might the meaning shift over time): P---, your:"8 minutes to Central? You must be talking by car, right?From TLB to the Tung Chung Line MTR is already 5 to 8 minutes walk. The area is somewhat isolated."That might be possible by car (in no traffic). But I was talking about the train journey.From Central to Olympic is maybe 8 minutes, and 31 minutes to Tung Chung. In both places you have to add on the walk from the station to the property. The walk from Tung Chung station to Caribbean Coast (for instance) is much longer than from Olympic Station to TLB. So, if you are talking door to door, you might have to add and extra 35-40 minutes for a journey to Caribbean Coast. I have made loads of both journeys over the year, so I think my time estimates are pretty accurate.People used to talk about a "long walk" from OS to TLB (or to Hampton Place), but then Imperial Cullinan was sold at very fancy prices, and I heard much less of that talk. In the long run, I think talk of "isolation" will gradually disappear as:+ Kowloon station and Park Ave/Central Park/Hermitage (and their malls) become overwhelmed by mainland shoppers -especially on weekends, after the XRL is completed and the trains start running by the end of 2015. (The sort of overwhelming crowding might look something like what you now see in Tung Chung's gateway mall now on weekends. It was not like that when we first moved to TC. I find it unpleasant to go there on weekends.)+ Shopping malls are being built by Sun Hing Kai at Nam Cheong, where the walk is only a little further than to Olympian-1 and 2/3's malls+ A Seven-eleven and maybe a coffee shop and restaurants are opened along with the boutique hotel in the lower floors of One Silver SeaIf this all happens, as I expect it will then - TLB, IC, OSS and Hampton Place will be seen as "pleasantly quiet", rather than "isolated".We are quite happy to stay put, where we are in TLB, since I see the developments that I have described as "extremely likely"... eventually. - originally posted on AX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted March 10, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 10, 2014 WHAT DOES "ISOLATED" mean in TKT ? + Shopping malls are built at Nam Cheong, where the walk is only maybe 50% further than to Olympian-1's malls Nam Cheong Development Details Developer: Joinyield Limited (subsidiary of Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited) > see: http://www.jrp-group.com/en/project?id=11&rid=451 Residential GFA: Approx. 214,700 sq.m. No. of Towers: 14 No. of Flats: Approx. 3,414 No. of Residential Storeys: 4 to 44 == Retail GFA: Approx. 27,660 sq.m. (!! more than 12% of total)* Expected Completion Date: By phases from 2017 - 2019 == > http://www.mtr.com.hk/eng/properties/westrail_nc.html *(includes: shopping malls worth from HKD $13.2 billion to HKD 15.84 billion) Like WINGS eventually, I suppose SS Thread on Nam Cheong project :: http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=752394&page=3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted March 14, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 14, 2014 (from AX - about shifting shopping patterns): "One day, not too distant in the future, the mainlanders will finally realize that Causeway Bay sucks and they'll go looking elsewhere in newer, cleaner shopping malls rather than on the dirty cracktown alleyways of Causeway Bay." - L. Checkout the near-empty luxury mall at Coronation. It is 2 minutes walk to the coming XRL train terminus at Kowloon station. I think many mainlanders will rather do their immediate and last minute shopping there, and at Elements, rather than in Causeway Bay. Actually one reason that I would suggest NOT BUYING at Kowloon station is there a real risk that the nearby malls will become over-crowded and therefore unpleasant. Have a look at the Mall at Tung Chung on the weekend, and ask yourself if you would like to walk through those crowds everyday. Elements, and even the mall at Coronation may become like that. In this version of the future, people may come to appreciate the relative quietude of seaside Olympic station. This is only one future timeline, but a very possible one, I think. Nam Cheong with its 3,300 new flats, and 27,000 sq meters of shopping (like Wings, I suppose) may become another overcrowded shopping paradise, and a very worthy alternative to Causeway Bay. I used to work in the World Trade Center there years ago, and I hate going there and fighting the crowds nowadays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted March 14, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 14, 2014 (2) - On Shopping (OTP): Artist's interpretation of what is coming to Nam Cheong:http://www.hkchcc.org/namcheongproject.jpgRemember the MTR stations, starting in Central, run like this:Hong Kong Station - High end shoppingvKowloon Station - ElementsvOlympic StationvNam Cheong - new flats and new shopsvLai King - (and connection to Tsuen Wan line)v v(on to the airport)Hey, who will need to go shopping in CWB at all?Having said that, the Tung Chung line will eventually be extended to connect with Wanchai/Convention Centre, and Causeway Bay, and beyond (P.): Transportation in HK is quite convenient. Transport (for sightseeing and shopping) is not a big deal. Transport for school and work is. (OTP): Yeah, I see your point.But you are wrong with respect to mainland tourists who COME TO SHOP, not for working or for schools.People who are coming off the XRL (from mainland China), or leaving by train soon, are going to want to shop where it is pleasant and convenient. (Look at all the customers brought by bus to Tung Chung.) That economic factor will matter more than most here are contemplating imho. Have you been to Canton Road? Do you notice that a shop in CWB just sold for HK$1.38 million (a record!) per sf?Is tourist oriented shopping good or bad for a neighborhood? I would say it is a mixed blessing. You want access to interesting shops, but not only the luxury (expensive) ones that are tourist traps. Kowloon station may be headed in that way when the XRL is finished. TKT is likely to remain a mixed neighborhood with shops catering mainly to residents - though with ongoing gentrification. I think that sort of mix (as in TST) is attractive. And TKT has been built differently, and will not have the over-crowding of TST - especially in the newer "Olympic" parts, built on landfill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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