The Hong Kong Long Property Cycle

[drbubb]

Property shares (esp. HK-12) have provided "clues" on prior turns in the Long Cycle

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(1)

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(2)

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Update : Henderson Properties / HK-12 ... update : Logscale ... ====

/ Centaline index : : xx

/ Historical Data- : : xx

[drbubb]

These are also worth a look:

 

MIdland Holdings / HK-1200 ... update

 

 

 

Richfield Group / HK-183 ... update

 

 

 

HKR International / HK-480 ... update

 

[drbubb]

As posted on AX: LINK-see-post#5

"Where's the Top?

I believe that there is an 18 year cycle operating in the HK property market, and I do not see a peak until 2015-2017. If I have that right, we may see at least one more wild ride to the upside before HK property rolls over."

 

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Meantime, MHV is correcting in what looks like an A-B-C

 

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The big rally from last summer to the early 2013 was most dramatic in MHV:

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========: MetroHV : IslHrbv. : PkAv./CP

+mid-2012 : $ 6,772 : $ 9,224. : $10,589 // 7/15/12 - 6/10/12 - 6/10/12

+ Hi -2013 : $ 9,440*: $11,428 : $12,430 // 2/03/13 - 3/24/13 - 3/24/13

==Change : +39.4% : +23.9% : +17.4% :

+ now: 4/26: $ 8,692 : $10,673 : $12,150 :

== Off Top : - 7.92%: - 6.61% : - 2.25% :

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*That $9,440 high was a fluke. The 3/24/13 high was $8,899 - 31.4% up.

From 6/10/12 (103.82) to 3/24/13 (123.45), CCLI rose by 14.5%

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The MHV rally was about twice as fast as CCLI, and therefore was just "too much, too fast", and it is

now being corrected, with a drop to $8,000-8,500 psf, Gross - and maybe lower/

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I do not think the rally is over... Because a rally does not generally end that way.

And the fall since that Top looks "corrective"

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Data : http://202.72.14.52/...tory.aspx?tab=2

[drbubb]

This chart belongs on this thread also:

 

CORRELATION: Between Rents and Prices

 

If you can't sell (because the market price for selling is going down), what you do is hold and rent at a higher price (unless you have to sell to recover some losses etc etc etc)...That's why it is always fun to see all those people hoping for the market to drop ...while in many cases, it means (at least in the beginning) higher rent...

 

Nice idea, but easily disproved by checking reality.

Pretty clear that rent rises when property prices rise... and when property prices fall, so does rent.

 

Clear that this happened in both 2008 and 2011 in the last slight property price declines. And both fell for around six years after 1997.

 

Plotting the Hong Kong Midland Property Price 100 vs Hong Kong Midland Realty Residential Rent since 1990....

 

 

(a good post / source): http://hongkong.geoe...read262338.html

[drbubb]

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The Centaline chart shows there is a danger of a good-sized Drop from the recent high

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Centaline Index / Update : http://hk.centadata.com/cci/cci_e.htm

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