drbubb Posted May 11, 2013 Report Share Posted May 11, 2013 Russell 2,000 and Volatility : RUT, IWM, TZA (etfs) and VIX Worth starting a thread on this index ? - It's often a good bellwether RUT / the Russell 2,000 ... update : 2yrs-Daily Approaching 1,000 Friday closing was : 975.16 +8.9022 // O:967.70 / H:975.16 / L:967.70 :: Percent Change: 0.92% UPDATED - 3Year Chart for RUT : as of 17-May ( We may see something like that 2011 Jagged Top once again ) ===== LINKS: Tony Caldaro :: Blog : RUT-charts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted May 11, 2013 Author Report Share Posted May 11, 2013 Don't expect much of a Drop yet, the final top could be next year BTW, RUT may peak BEFORE SPX, so it is worth following E-wave count from Tony Caldaro's colleague : Weekly Daily /source: (pp.2) : http://stockcharts.c...1269446/tenpp/2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted May 16, 2013 Author Report Share Posted May 16, 2013 Is the Russell the main bellwether to watch now? . IWM / Russell 2000 etf ... update : RUT-vs-SPX . . IWM is running ahead of SPY (which recently "jumped the tracks" of an important channel), but IWM remains within its (wider) channel. And IWM itself is based upon a broader index of 2,000 stocks, rather than just the Top 500 Market Caps. The E-wave pattern also looks as if it is ahead of the pattern for the SPX/SPY, and is in an "v" wave, rather than a "iii" wave. So IWM/ RUT may peak first, and lead US stocks lower. . It remains below 100, and the Russell below 1,000. . WED. Close : IWM : $98.20 +0.20 / +0.20% RUT : 988.54 +2.58 / +0.26% SPX : 1658.78 +8.42 / +0.51% . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted May 17, 2013 Author Report Share Posted May 17, 2013 A 4th wave (of a smaller degree) seems to be Done now IWM ... update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted May 21, 2013 Author Report Share Posted May 21, 2013 RUT touches but does not hold 1,000 RUT: 998.78 + 0.80 / o:997.82, h:1000.59, l:995.2 / +0.08% Charts : RUT : IWM That's the second day in a row Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted May 22, 2013 Author Report Share Posted May 22, 2013 TIME for a new target for RUT / IWM ? ( $1020, $102 ) ... update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted May 23, 2013 Author Report Share Posted May 23, 2013 It seems I was in too much of a hurry to Raise that "Just below $1,000" Target Yesterday's high for RUT was: 1,008.23, making a New High for the Year Wed. Moves : === RUT : 982.26 - 16.52 / O: 999.07, H: 1008.23, L: 977.41 / - 1.65% IWM : $97.78 - $1.45 / O: $99.41, H: 100.38, L: $97.11 / - 1.46% TNA : $48.59 - $2.45 / O: $51.16, H: $52.69, L: $47.67 / - 4.80% TZA : $31.98 + $1.43 / O: $30.43. H: $32.54, L: $29.54 / + 4.68% (TNA= 3x Bull, TZA= 3x Bear) === I have received quite a number of emails today... All talking about how "WE MAY BE SEEING A TOP IN STOCKS". Yesterday's drop, and the Drop in Japan have people spooked - especially after such a big run-up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted May 24, 2013 Author Report Share Posted May 24, 2013 If RUT has seen its High, then TZA has seen its Low at $29.50. Or Perhaps, RUT will have one-more-High, as per my original forecast. (TZA is the 3X -geared Bear etf on RUT / IWM) ... update Some Call option closing prices from yesterday / When TZA closed at : $31.80 / TNA : $48.77 / IWM : $97.90 TZA Call Options (TZA: $31.80) === Strike== : JUN. 2013 === : OCT 2013 === : $28-call : 4.00-4.15 /4.08 : 6.00-6.10 /6.05 $30-call : 2.70-2.80 /2.75 : 5.10-5.25 /5.18 $32-call : 1.75-1.83 /1.79 : 4.40-4.50 /4.45 ======= DAYS-- : 06/21/13 : 28 d : 10/18/13 : 147d : 30+31+31+30+18+7 = 147 $31.80 Not'l ATM : $1.89 : - - - - - - : $4.50 : 1 yr : x(19.1/5.29)= 6.82 : x(19.1/12.12)= 7.09 : ave: 6.955 / 21.87% === 21.87% / .40 = 54.675 /3 = 18.23% RUT eqv. (VIX: 14.07 %): 129.5% Note--: Sqrt(28) = 5.29 / Sqrt(117) = 10.82 / Sqrt(365) = 19.10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted May 24, 2013 Author Report Share Posted May 24, 2013 VIX has not confirmed the Recent High in SPX / Low in SDS ... update : 6mos : 10d-chart : VIX-2yrs : VIX-6mos The Short Term : VIX vs. TZA ... update : TZA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted May 28, 2013 Author Report Share Posted May 28, 2013 SPX down to $1,540 (- 6.7% from Friday's 1,650), might mean : IWM down to $91, -7% from Friday's $97.88 ... update TARGET : Given the greater Beta of IWM, an alternative target might be IWM-89/90 === === Dow 17,000 next year? - That's where Tony C thinks stocks are going When we remove all the subdivisions within the Major waves, we are left with an easier wave pattern to observe. Five Major waves within Primary waves I and III, then a simple Primary wave V to end the 2002-2007 bull market. Notice, Primary I took a bit over two years, Primary III about two years, but Primary V was only two months. Also note, the DOW broke through its all time 2000 high in Major 3 of Primary III, about one year before the bull market ended. The main reason, other than the wave structure, for the point of recognition. Technically, the monthly RSI hit its highest level, of the entire bull market, during Major 3 of Primary III. Finally, after the breakout to new highs the DOW then gained an additional 21% before topping out in October 2007. The comparisons between the 2002-2007 bull market and the 2009-2013 bull market are quite striking. In our current bull market Primary I took a little over two years, and Primary III is in its second year. The DOW recently broke through its all time 2007 high also in Major 3 of Primary III. Technically, the monthly RSI has also reached its most overbought condition, of the entire bull market, during Major wave 3. With all this comparative data in mind we could project the following. The bull market should end about one year after the Mar13 breakout to all time news highs. The DOW should also reach 17,000, about 20% over the previous all time high. This analysis, oddly enough, compares with the projections we have been making for the SPX. A bull market top in late winter-early spring of 2014 between SPX 1650 and 1780. Two different views, same results. === /more: http://caldaro.wordp...ysisprojection/ (Shorter Term): Our preferred count remains Minute waves: 1598-1581-1687-1636/37-with the fifth wave next. If the market can now rally above SPX 1653, this would turn our short term OEW charts positive, suggesting Minute v is underway. Then a retest of the high or the OEW 1699 pivot would be next. Should this market start making lower lows, reaching the OEW 1628 pivot, and breaking below its lower range: SPX 1621. Then the uptrend probably topped at SPX 1687, and the short term count posted in the Medium term section is correct. Should a downtrend be underway we would expect it to last about one month and find support around the SPX 1540 level. This level would be right in between the OEW 1523 and 1552 pivots. === /see: http://caldaro.wordp...ysisprojection/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted June 14, 2013 Author Report Share Posted June 14, 2013 RUSSELL is still within striking distance of its high . IWM (etf for Russell 2000) ... update : . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted June 22, 2013 Author Report Share Posted June 22, 2013 This is worth tracking here: /source: http://forbestadvice...nDates2013.html ... /IWM-chart: update .......... .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted July 9, 2013 Author Report Share Posted July 9, 2013 New high for IWM / The Russell, but it may be "running on empty" now. . IWM / The Russell ... update . : . Notice how the volume has been weakening. . Jeff Saut (a long time bull) has now spotted a possible turning point: Jeff Saut has a "Rosebud" moment - Turning Point dead ahead? . Saut's been high accurate, and bullish on stocks, for a long time - so his identification of a possible Turn ahead is something to pay attention to. . Recall that for months I have targeted mid-July as the timing point for the first “meaningful” decline of the year to commence. While I have not shared the exact timing points, they are July 11/12th (minor timing points) with July 19th being the major timing point. . . . the Q&A could “rattle” the markets coincident with the Fed’s Beige Book providing an anecdotal glimpse at economic conditions. The next day, July 18th, Bernanke will deliver his second day of testimony before the Senate Banking Committee with an attendant Q&A period. . . . The sectors most vulnerable to earnings misses are Materials, Technology and Industrials, even though I continue to favor Technology and the Industrials. Another sector, namely Financials, could suffer as well because the recent interest rate rise has caused the banks to lose roughly $22 billion in their “Available for Sale” bond portfolios. Further, the U.S. dollar has been strong, and has broken out in the chart to new reaction highs, which may have a negative impact on international companies’ earnings. === /more: https://raymondjames...e929825196d.pdf . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted July 9, 2013 Author Report Share Posted July 9, 2013 A drop starting in July would still be in line with the original forecast ... update ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted July 24, 2013 Author Report Share Posted July 24, 2013 There may be coming up - a chance to profit on the Bear side, by purchasing Calls on TZA ... I want to study the possible trade more carefully here I was a few weeks early my entry, but I am beginning to see some nice gains with my NUGT position ... ... NUGT - A nice +86% rally from the Low ... 1-year : 6mos : 3mos : 10days REBOUND - from the Low: Sym. : 06/ 27 : Change / 07/ 23 : +/-chg. : % Chg. : volume === GLD : 114.68 :+13.11% / 129.71 : +0.87 : + 0.68% : 8.76 mn GDX: $22.21 : +27.65% / $28.35 : +0.91 : + 3.32% : 37.1 mn Ratio: r- 5.16 : -11.24% / r- 4.58 : GLD/GDX Nugt: $ 4.60 : +86.09% / $ 8.56 : +0.75 : + 9.60% : 34.8 mn Ratio: r24.93 : -39.23% / r15.15 : GLD Ratio: r- 4.83 : -31.47% / r- 3.31 : GDX ... ...Will I be able to repeat it with TZA (3X Bear etf on the Russell) ? ... update I will be studying the timing of a trade HERE, on the Russell thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted July 24, 2013 Author Report Share Posted July 24, 2013 Let's Turn that TZA chart inside out, and look at TNA (3X Bull) and IWM TNA (3X Bull on Russell 2000) ... update IWM (1X Etf on Russell 2000) ... update IWM is running up to that Possible Resistanec level on Lighter Volume. But it is too dangerous to GO SHORT there, because that is not a sufficient reason (on its own) to expect a Turn. VIX / Volatility Index ... update - now at : 12.66 +0.37 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted July 24, 2013 Author Report Share Posted July 24, 2013 NOT an Ideal SHORT entry point ... yet : Yeah - VIX is saying this is not the ideal time yet ... update : 1-year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted July 31, 2013 Author Report Share Posted July 31, 2013 INDU with labels : http://KimbleChartin...utions.com/Blog ... INDU-from-1987 RUT equivalent ... updated-1 : v-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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