Jump to content

Russell 2,000 and Volatility : RUT, IWM, TZA (etfs) and VIX


Recommended Posts

Russell 2,000 and Volatility : RUT, IWM, TZA (etfs) and VIX

 

Worth starting a thread on this index ? - It's often a good bellwether

 

idx24_russell_en_2.gif

 

RUT / the Russell 2,000 ... update : 2yrs-Daily

 

39897935.gif

 

Approaching 1,000

 

Friday closing was : 975.16

+8.9022 // O:967.70 / H:975.16 / L:967.70 :: Percent Change: 0.92%

 

UPDATED - 3Year Chart for RUT : as of 17-May

( We may see something like that 2011 Jagged Top once again )

29767474.png

 

=====

LINKS:

Tony Caldaro :: Blog : RUT-charts

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Don't expect much of a Drop yet, the final top could be next year

 

56792364.gif

 

BTW, RUT may peak BEFORE SPX, so it is worth following

 

E-wave count from Tony Caldaro's colleague :

 

Weekly

78910864.png

 

Daily

94733345.png

 

/source: (pp.2) : http://stockcharts.c...1269446/tenpp/2

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Is the Russell the main bellwether to watch now?

.

IWM / Russell 2000 etf ... update : RUT-vs-SPX

.iwnvsspy.gif

.

IWM is running ahead of SPY (which recently "jumped the tracks" of an important channel), but IWM remains within its (wider) channel. And IWM itself is based upon a broader index of 2,000 stocks, rather than just the Top 500 Market Caps. The E-wave pattern also looks as if it is ahead of the pattern for the SPX/SPY, and is in an "v" wave, rather than a "iii" wave. So IWM/ RUT may peak first, and lead US stocks lower.

.

It remains below 100, and the Russell below 1,000.

.

WED. Close :

IWM : $98.20 +0.20 / +0.20%

RUT : 988.54 +2.58 / +0.26%

SPX : 1658.78 +8.42 / +0.51%

.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A 4th wave (of a smaller degree) seems to be Done now

 

IWM ... update

 

32758392.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

RUT touches but does not hold 1,000

 

RUT: 998.78 + 0.80 / o:997.82, h:1000.59, l:995.2 / +0.08%

 

Charts : RUT : IWM

 

That's the second day in a row

Link to comment
Share on other sites

TIME for a new target for RUT / IWM ?

( $1020, $102 ) ... update

 

82754999.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It seems I was in too much of a hurry to Raise that "Just below $1,000" Target

 

Yesterday's high for RUT was: 1,008.23, making a New High for the Year

 

Wed. Moves :

===

 

RUT : 982.26 - 16.52 / O: 999.07, H: 1008.23, L: 977.41 / - 1.65%

IWM : $97.78 - $1.45 / O: $99.41, H: 100.38, L: $97.11 / - 1.46%

TNA : $48.59 - $2.45 / O: $51.16, H: $52.69, L: $47.67 / - 4.80%

TZA : $31.98 + $1.43 / O: $30.43. H: $32.54, L: $29.54 / + 4.68%

 

(TNA= 3x Bull, TZA= 3x Bear)

===

 

I have received quite a number of emails today...

 

All talking about how "WE MAY BE SEEING A TOP IN STOCKS".

 

Yesterday's drop, and the Drop in Japan have people spooked

- especially after such a big run-up

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If RUT has seen its High, then TZA has seen its Low at $29.50.

Or Perhaps, RUT will have one-more-High, as per my original forecast.

 

(TZA is the 3X -geared Bear etf on RUT / IWM) ... update

 

18105096.gif

 

Some Call option closing prices from yesterday /

 

When TZA closed at : $31.80 / TNA : $48.77 / IWM : $97.90

 

TZA Call Options (TZA: $31.80)

===

Strike== : JUN. 2013 === : OCT 2013 === :

$28-call : 4.00-4.15 /4.08 : 6.00-6.10 /6.05

$30-call : 2.70-2.80 /2.75 : 5.10-5.25 /5.18

$32-call : 1.75-1.83 /1.79 : 4.40-4.50 /4.45

=======

 

DAYS-- : 06/21/13 : 28 d : 10/18/13 : 147d : 30+31+31+30+18+7 = 147

$31.80 Not'l ATM : $1.89 : - - - - - - : $4.50 :

1 yr : x(19.1/5.29)= 6.82 : x(19.1/12.12)= 7.09 : ave: 6.955 / 21.87%

===

21.87% / .40 = 54.675 /3 = 18.23% RUT eqv. (VIX: 14.07 %): 129.5%

Note--: Sqrt(28) = 5.29 / Sqrt(117) = 10.82 / Sqrt(365) = 19.10

Link to comment
Share on other sites

VIX has not confirmed the Recent High in SPX / Low in SDS ... update : 6mos : 10d-chart : VIX-2yrs : VIX-6mos

 

61131880.gif

 

The Short Term : VIX vs. TZA ... update : TZA

 

87664986.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

SPX down to $1,540 (- 6.7% from Friday's 1,650),

might mean :

IWM down to $91, -7% from Friday's $97.88 ... update

 

92223744.gif

 

TARGET : Given the greater Beta of IWM, an alternative target might be IWM-89/90

 

=== ===

Dow 17,000 next year? - That's where Tony C thinks stocks are going

 

When we remove all the subdivisions within the Major waves, we are left with an easier wave pattern to observe. Five Major waves within Primary waves I and III, then a simple Primary wave V to end the 2002-2007 bull market. Notice, Primary I took a bit over two years, Primary III about two years, but Primary V was only two months. Also note, the DOW broke through its all time 2000 high in Major 3 of Primary III, about one year before the bull market ended. The main reason, other than the wave structure, for the point of recognition. Technically, the monthly RSI hit its highest level, of the entire bull market, during Major 3 of Primary III. Finally, after the breakout to new highs the DOW then gained an additional 21% before topping out in October 2007.

 

dowprojections.png?w=640&h=484

 

The comparisons between the 2002-2007 bull market and the 2009-2013 bull market are quite striking. In our current bull market Primary I took a little over two years, and Primary III is in its second year. The DOW recently broke through its all time 2007 high also in Major 3 of Primary III. Technically, the monthly RSI has also reached its most overbought condition, of the entire bull market, during Major wave 3.

 

With all this comparative data in mind we could project the following. The bull market should end about one year after the Mar13 breakout to all time news highs. The DOW should also reach 17,000, about 20% over the previous all time high. This analysis, oddly enough, compares with the projections we have been making for the SPX. A bull market top in late winter-early spring of 2014 between SPX 1650 and 1780. Two different views, same results.

===

/more: http://caldaro.wordp...ysisprojection/

 

(Shorter Term):

 

Our preferred count remains Minute waves: 1598-1581-1687-1636/37-with the fifth wave next. If the market can now rally above SPX 1653, this would turn our short term OEW charts positive, suggesting Minute v is underway. Then a retest of the high or the OEW 1699 pivot would be next. Should this market start making lower lows, reaching the OEW 1628 pivot, and breaking below its lower range: SPX 1621. Then the uptrend probably topped at SPX 1687, and the short term count posted in the Medium term section is correct.

spxhourly3.png?w=640&h=484

 

Should a downtrend be underway we would expect it to last about one month and find support around the SPX 1540 level. This level would be right in between the OEW 1523 and 1552 pivots.

===

/see: http://caldaro.wordp...ysisprojection/

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 3 weeks later...

RUSSELL is still within striking distance of its high

.

IWM (etf for Russell 2000) ... update :

.2fac.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...
  • 3 weeks later...

New high for IWM / The Russell, but it may be "running on empty" now.

.

IWM / The Russell ... update

.

: geqb.png

.

Notice how the volume has been weakening.

.

Jeff Saut (a long time bull) has now spotted a possible turning point:

 

Jeff Saut has a "Rosebud" moment - Turning Point dead ahead?

.

Saut's been high accurate, and bullish on stocks, for a long time - so his identification of a possible Turn ahead is something to pay attention to.

.

Recall that for months I have targeted mid-July as the timing point for the first “meaningful” decline of the year to commence. While I have not shared the exact timing points, they are July 11/12th (minor timing points) with July 19th being the major timing point. . . . the Q&A could “rattle” the markets coincident with the Fed’s Beige Book providing an anecdotal glimpse at economic conditions. The next day, July 18th, Bernanke will deliver his second day of testimony before the Senate Banking Committee with an attendant Q&A period.

. . .

The sectors most vulnerable to earnings misses are Materials, Technology and Industrials, even though I continue to favor Technology and the Industrials. Another sector, namely Financials, could suffer as well because the recent interest rate rise has caused the banks to lose roughly $22 billion in their “Available for Sale” bond portfolios. Further, the U.S. dollar has been strong, and has broken out in the chart to new reaction highs, which may have a negative impact on international companies’ earnings.

===

/more: https://raymondjames...e929825196d.pdf

 

.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A drop starting in July would still be in line with the original forecast ... update ... u2qj.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...

There may be coming up - a chance to profit on the Bear side,

by purchasing Calls on TZA ...

 

I want to study the possible trade more carefully here

 

I was a few weeks early my entry, but I am beginning to see some nice gains with my NUGT position

... ...

NUGT - A nice +86% rally from the Low ... 1-year : 6mos : 3mos : 10days

 

66j.gif

 

REBOUND - from the Low:

 

Sym. : 06/ 27 : Change / 07/ 23 : +/-chg. : % Chg. : volume

===

GLD : 114.68 :+13.11% / 129.71 : +0.87 : + 0.68% : 8.76 mn

GDX: $22.21 : +27.65% / $28.35 : +0.91 : + 3.32% : 37.1 mn

Ratio: r- 5.16 : -11.24% / r- 4.58 : GLD/GDX

Nugt: $ 4.60 : +86.09% / $ 8.56 : +0.75 : + 9.60% : 34.8 mn

Ratio: r24.93 : -39.23% / r15.15 : GLD

Ratio: r- 4.83 : -31.47% / r- 3.31 : GDX

 

... ...

Will I be able to repeat it with TZA (3X Bear etf on the Russell) ? ... update

 

nuok.png

 

I will be studying the timing of a trade HERE, on the Russell thread

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Let's Turn that TZA chart inside out, and look at TNA (3X Bull) and IWM

 

TNA (3X Bull on Russell 2000) ... update

 

wdl.gif

 

IWM (1X Etf on Russell 2000) ... update

 

fob.gif

 

IWM is running up to that Possible Resistanec level on Lighter Volume.

But it is too dangerous to GO SHORT there, because that is not a sufficient reason (on its own) to expect a Turn.

 

VIX / Volatility Index ... update - now at : 12.66 +0.37

 

7t7.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

NOT an Ideal SHORT entry point ... yet :

 

Yeah - VIX is saying this is not the ideal time yet ... update : 1-year

 

cro.gif

 

rtlz.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...