drbubb Posted June 29, 2013 Report Share Posted June 29, 2013 Real Gold prices, and Ratio Gold (Gold-to- ??) Let's start with a traditional measure - Gold adjusted for Inflation Sept. 24, 2010, / source: http://www.marketwat...peak-2010-09-24 Gold hit a long-anticipated high-water mark Friday, briefly breaking through $1,300 an ounce. But the precious metal still has a long way to go to reclaim its inflation-adjusted all-time highs. A gold investor who bought an ounce of the metal at its January 1980 peak would need gold to advance by more than $1,000 an ounce from today’s record levels to come out ahead when 30 years of inflation are taken into account. People who bought gold in 1980 “have not even halfway broken even,” said Jon Nadler, a senior analyst with Kitco Metals. On Friday, gold for December delivery, the most active contract, posted an intraday high of $1,301.60 an ounce and closed at $1,298.10 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. That was its sixth record high in the past seven sessions Here's an even Longer term measure: Gold since 1871, adjusted for CPI /source : Both Charts purport to show the same thing - Gold adjusted for inflation - but they have a different look. Perhaps they use different inflation indices. Since they both finished about 3 years ago, the trick is updating them, and I will need inflation data (preferably CPI figures) to update. LINKS: ===== HISTORICAL GOLD PRICES- 1833 to Present The Price of Gold, 1257-2007 Kitco's Historical Gold prices : http://www.kitco.com/scripts/hist_charts/yearly_graphs.plx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted June 29, 2013 Author Report Share Posted June 29, 2013 "... They both finished about 3 years ago, the trick is updating them." Fortunately a found an updated chart, and some data covering 1992-2013 and the period since mid-2010 Added some lines ... Clean Version : Clean v.1871-2010 ==== : x 215 1.47 = 315.6 : 5.93 = 1274. : 8.09 = 1739. : 6.20 = 1333. : 5.10 = 1098. : Updated - Monthend Latest - Now: much Lower GOLD : 1224.30 : $ 1182 $CPI - : $231.83 : 231.83 Ratio- : R-5.28 / : R-5.10 (Seems to be on the bottom of the long term channel) ====================== : see : post#41, CAF thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted June 29, 2013 Author Report Share Posted June 29, 2013 Calculating a Sept-10 base for Gold prices Date-Year : $Gold / CPI-idx / Base : Index : Gold/i 24. Sep.10 : $1298 : 218.20 / 218.20 : 1.000 = $1298 05. Sep.11 : $1924 : 226.70 / 218.20 : 1.039 = $1852 XX. May 12 : $1527 : 228.65 / 218.20 : 1.048 = $1457 XX. Oct. 12 : $1798 : 231.62 / 218.20 : 1.061 = $1694 27. Jun. 13 : $1201 : 231.83 / 218.20 : 1.062 = $1131 (Longer Term Chart): Date-Year : $Gold/ CPI-idx : Ratio: x 215 : ==== 21. Jan. '80 : $0873 / 78.79 = 11.08 = 2383. : 02. Apr. '01 : $0256 / 174.15 = 1.47 = 315.6 : 24. Sept.10 : $1298 / 218.20 = 5.95 = 1279 : 05. Sept.11 : $1924 / 226.70 = 8.49 = 1825 : Record high 12. Sept.11 : $1834 / 226.70 = 8.09 = 1739 : XX. ????.11 : $1XXX / 2XX.xx = 6.20 = 1333. : 27. Jun. '13 : $1201 / 231.83 = 5.18 = 1113. : Thu. close 28. Jun. '13 : $1182 / 231.83 = 5.10 = 1098. : Low for Friday 28. Jun. '13 : $1232 / 231.83 = 5.31 = 1142. : Fri. close Date- Year : $Gold / CPI-idx : Ratio : x 215 : === Where's CPI going ? / see : CPI thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted June 29, 2013 Author Report Share Posted June 29, 2013 The Gold-to-WTI Crude Ratio hit the bottom of a channel One Ounce of Gold buys just a bit less than 13 Barrels, a new recent Low (Near 12.21 and has begun a bounce, at least) / Latest: 12.76 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted June 29, 2013 Author Report Share Posted June 29, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted June 29, 2013 Author Report Share Posted June 29, 2013 For the Record here - Some reliable old relationships are breaking down, or being severely stretched: Gold's gone off the Racetrack, and onto the sidewalk But I continue to be amazed how well they chart together - when you choose the right start date - where SPY and GLD had the same value. Here's another relationship which has gone "off the Rails": Gordon Long likes to talk about how Gold has tracked total Central Bank Reserves: "Combined assets of the Fed, ECP, PBoC, BoJ and SNB". But at Gold $1200, gold is off the rails. /More: in interview with CAF (post #41): http://www.greenener...opic=5446&st=40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted July 10, 2013 Author Report Share Posted July 10, 2013 Despite the rise in Gold prices, product remains Off its peak It seems odd to see that production peaked (in 2001), as Gold prices bottomed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted July 10, 2013 Author Report Share Posted July 10, 2013 Here's Gold-to-Oil Rising Oil isn't dragging up Gold... not yet anyway An ounce of Gold will buy less than 12 barrels of WTI Crude - a new low (over the last three years) Looking back ... Gold = 10-11 barrels would not be an unusual ratio Since 1946: w/o lines 10-12 Barrels per Gold ounce, brings it back to the breakout point... 11.35 would be Half the 2011 peak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted July 10, 2013 Author Report Share Posted July 10, 2013 The relationship (Of Gold to CRB) is also worth watching When to Sell? What did history show us ? Well, if you had sold on Sept. 5, 2011, you could have achieved over $1900 per ounce. (on Tuesday, the day after Labor Day on Monday): GLD - Sep.6, 2011 : $182.90 - $0.34 / O: $184.58, H: $185.85, L: $181.31 HOD : $184.58 x 10.36 = $1,912.25 . . . How would that have fit in with the seasonal pattern? Not bad, just one month early - the normal seasonal high is early October What other clues were there ?? Here's another measure that would have worked - the BIG GAP to CRB at a time when CRB had rolled over and was sliding downwards : GLD versus CRB ... update RATIO ==== : 02-sep-11 / 12-31-08 : 12-31-10 : 12-31-12 : 07-03-13 : GLD = $183.24 /= $086.52 := $138.72 := $162.01 := $120.74 : CRB := $338.06 /= $247.10 := $332.80 := $295.00 := $281.79 : Ratio: R: 54.2% / R: 35.0% : R: 41.7% : R : 54.9% : R: 42.8% : RATIO Chart : GLD to CRB ... With more Lines From this chart the "Normal Range" for Gold seems to be 42% - 54% of CRB. If you can SELL above that Range, or BUY below it, you would have had a good trade. Buying Gold at near 42% whilst CRB is rising seems to be the best trading strategy. - and - SELLING GOLD at 54% or higher, when CRB is sliding. The recent rise in WTI Crude could drag up CRB, and get it to break out of the triangle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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