Jump to content

Real Gold prices, and Ratio Gold (Gold-to- ??)


Recommended Posts

Real Gold prices, and Ratio Gold (Gold-to- ??)

 

Let's start with a traditional measure - Gold adjusted for Inflation

 

MW-AG534_gold_p_20100924161553_MG.jpg

 

Sept. 24, 2010, / source: http://www.marketwat...peak-2010-09-24

 

Gold hit a long-anticipated high-water mark Friday, briefly breaking through $1,300 an ounce. But the precious metal still has a long way to go to reclaim its inflation-adjusted all-time highs.

A gold investor who bought an ounce of the metal at its January 1980 peak would need gold to advance by more than $1,000 an ounce from today’s record levels to come out ahead when 30 years of inflation are taken into account.

People who bought gold in 1980 “have not even halfway broken even,” said Jon Nadler, a senior analyst with Kitco Metals.

On Friday, gold for December delivery, the most active contract, posted an intraday high of $1,301.60 an ounce and closed at $1,298.10 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. That was its sixth record high in the past seven sessions

 

Here's an even Longer term measure:

Gold since 1871, adjusted for CPI

 

50x3.jpg

 

/source :

 

Both Charts purport to show the same thing - Gold adjusted for inflation - but they have a different look.

Perhaps they use different inflation indices. Since they both finished about 3 years ago, the trick is updating them, and I will need inflation data (preferably CPI figures) to update.

 

LINKS:

=====

HISTORICAL GOLD PRICES- 1833 to Present

The Price of Gold, 1257-2007

Kitco's Historical Gold prices : http://www.kitco.com/scripts/hist_charts/yearly_graphs.plx

Link to comment
Share on other sites

"... They both finished about 3 years ago, the trick is updating them."

Fortunately a found an updated chart, and some data covering 1992-2013 and the period since mid-2010

 

Added some lines ... Clean Version : Clean v.1871-2010

9hhe.png

 

7do8.jpg

 

==== : x 215

1.47 = 315.6 :

5.93 = 1274. :

8.09 = 1739. :

6.20 = 1333. :

5.10 = 1098. :

 

Updated - Monthend

6u4p.png

 

Latest - Now: much Lower

GOLD : 1224.30 : $ 1182

$CPI - : $231.83 : 231.83

Ratio- : R-5.28 / : R-5.10

(Seems to be on the bottom of the long term channel)

======================

 

onnx.png: see : post#41, CAF thread

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Calculating a Sept-10 base for Gold prices

 

Date-Year : $Gold / CPI-idx / Base : Index : Gold/i

24. Sep.10 : $1298 : 218.20 / 218.20 : 1.000 = $1298

05. Sep.11 : $1924 : 226.70 / 218.20 : 1.039 = $1852

XX. May 12 : $1527 : 228.65 / 218.20 : 1.048 = $1457

XX. Oct. 12 : $1798 : 231.62 / 218.20 : 1.061 = $1694

27. Jun. 13 : $1201 : 231.83 / 218.20 : 1.062 = $1131

 

mg1g.jpg

(Longer Term Chart):

 

Date-Year : $Gold/ CPI-idx : Ratio: x 215 :

====

21. Jan. '80 : $0873 / 78.79 = 11.08 = 2383. :

02. Apr. '01 : $0256 / 174.15 = 1.47 = 315.6 :

24. Sept.10 : $1298 / 218.20 = 5.95 = 1279 :

05. Sept.11 : $1924 / 226.70 = 8.49 = 1825 : Record high

12. Sept.11 : $1834 / 226.70 = 8.09 = 1739 :

XX. ????.11 : $1XXX / 2XX.xx = 6.20 = 1333. :

27. Jun. '13 : $1201 / 231.83 = 5.18 = 1113. : Thu. close

28. Jun. '13 : $1182 / 231.83 = 5.10 = 1098. : Low for Friday

28. Jun. '13 : $1232 / 231.83 = 5.31 = 1142. : Fri. close

Date- Year : $Gold / CPI-idx : Ratio : x 215 :

 

i960.jpg

 

===

Where's CPI going ? / see : CPI thread

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Gold-to-WTI Crude Ratio hit the bottom of a channel

 

One Ounce of Gold buys just a bit less than 13 Barrels, a new recent Low

 

cwc.png

 

(Near 12.21 and has begun a bounce, at least) / Latest: 12.76

Link to comment
Share on other sites

For the Record here -

Some reliable old relationships are breaking down, or being severely stretched:

 

Gold's gone off the Racetrack, and onto the sidewalk

 

ixg.gif

 

But I continue to be amazed how well they chart together - when you choose the right start date -

where SPY and GLD had the same value.

 

Here's another relationship which has gone "off the Rails":

 

rf38.png

 

Gordon Long likes to talk about how Gold has tracked total Central Bank Reserves:

"Combined assets of the Fed, ECP, PBoC, BoJ and SNB".

 

But at Gold $1200, gold is off the rails.

 

/More: in interview with CAF (post #41):

http://www.greenener...opic=5446&st=40

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...

Despite the rise in Gold prices, product remains Off its peak

 

020713_world-gold-production.png

 

It seems odd to see that production peaked (in 2001), as Gold prices bottomed.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here's Gold-to-Oil

Rising Oil isn't dragging up Gold... not yet anyway

 

3dn.png

 

An ounce of Gold will buy less than 12 barrels of WTI Crude - a new low (over the last three years)

 

Looking back ... Gold = 10-11 barrels would not be an unusual ratio

 

goldoilratio.PNG

Since 1946: w/o lines

 

207j.png

 

10-12 Barrels per Gold ounce, brings it back to the breakout point... 11.35 would be Half the 2011 peak

 

fp4p.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The relationship (Of Gold to CRB) is also worth watching

 

When to Sell? What did history show us ?

 

Well, if you had sold on Sept. 5, 2011, you could have achieved over $1900 per ounce.

 

(on Tuesday, the day after Labor Day on Monday):

 

GLD - Sep.6, 2011 : $182.90 - $0.34 / O: $184.58, H: $185.85, L: $181.31

 

HOD : $184.58 x 10.36 = $1,912.25

. . .

How would that have fit in with the seasonal pattern?

Not bad, just one month early - the normal seasonal high is early October

 

 

 

What other clues were there ??

 

Here's another measure that would have worked - the BIG GAP to CRB

at a time when CRB had rolled over and was sliding downwards :

 

GLD versus CRB ... update

 

rbj.gif

 

RATIO

==== : 02-sep-11 / 12-31-08 : 12-31-10 : 12-31-12 : 07-03-13 :

GLD = $183.24 /= $086.52 := $138.72 := $162.01 := $120.74 :

CRB := $338.06 /= $247.10 := $332.80 := $295.00 := $281.79 :

Ratio: R: 54.2% / R: 35.0% : R: 41.7% : R : 54.9% : R: 42.8% :

 

RATIO Chart : GLD to CRB ... With more Lines

 

0wm5.png

 

From this chart the "Normal Range" for Gold seems to be 42% - 54% of CRB.

 

If you can SELL above that Range, or BUY below it, you would have had a good trade.

 

Buying Gold at near 42% whilst CRB is rising seems to be the best trading strategy.

- and -

SELLING GOLD at 54% or higher, when CRB is sliding.

 

The recent rise in WTI Crude could drag up CRB, and get it to break out of the triangle

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...