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HONG KONG Stocks - The Next Move is ... ?


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HONG KONG Stocks - The Next Move is ... ?

 

hongkong_1823324c.jpg : HSI - vs.2823 / 1-Yr - vs - 2823 / 10d - vs - 2823 / shang

 

WHICH WAY do you think HK's Hang Seng Index will push out of this Triangle ?

 

... update : 1-year ... In theory, it should be to the upside, and that would finish the Move Up (for years)

 

c4z.gif

 

An E-Wave labeling like this may make sense:

 

05zx.gif

 

If it does break to the upside, then this one should be good for a Trade:

 

Shun Tak / HK-242 ... update : 1-year

 

hoc.gif

 

LINK to here: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-OutofE

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Here's more on Shun Tak

 

This HK-traded stock was suggested to me sometime ago...

 

Shun Tak .(HK-242) ... update -- Owners of the Macau Ferry, and related property, shs in in Lisboa Casino

 

kbv7.gif

 

The stock mostly runs "in a pack" with HK Developers, but got undervalued in early 2012,

 

- Before it Popped up in late 2012, in a "catch-up move" ... Versus : HK12-HK16 , HK1-HK17

 

a3m.gif

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Here's one that I own already

 

HK-809 / Global Bio-Chem

About :

Global Bio-chem has been listed on the Main Board of the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited since 2001. The Group is principally engaged in the manufacture and sale, research and development of corn-based biochemical products in the People's Republic of China (“PRC”). Its products are sold in the PRC and worldwide. Headquartered in Hong Kong and with its production facilities based in various provinces in the PRC, Global Bio-chem is the largest vertically integrated corn -based biochemical product manufacturer in Asia and is one of the leading lysine players in the fermentation industry world wide. The Group is one of the pioneers in applying corn starch as raw material for the commercial production of polyol chemicals. Global Bio-chem is also the parent company of Global Sweeteners Holdings Limited, one of the largest corn sweeteners producers in the PRC, which is also listed on the Main Board of the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited.

=====

website : http://www.globalbio.../html/index.php

 

Hong Kong stock at a "Pinch-point". What next ?

 

Here's a HK stock that I have been asked to follow

 

HK-809 / Global Bio-Chem ... update

 

j6a.gif

 

(an old comment, after its strong Push higher two months ago):

 

809 / Global Bio-Chem

This chart has a nice base, and has broken above a Down Channel with big volume.

It looks like one to accumulate, especially if you can pick it up at $x-x, the range of the High Volume bar, since I would expect some buying to re-emerge there.

Upside targets are $1.50, $2.20 and $3.00.

 

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It is crawling out of the Pinchpoint ... update : Latest : $0.66 - 0.01, -1.49% / vol. 15.59 million

 

8krt.png

 

NOTE something important:

The big volume day in May pushed it through the BollyBand, but NOT over the 76d-MA.

And so the jump proved to be a one-day wonder.

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Correlation to Corn ? ... Unfortunately not.

 

I checked to see if there was one for Global Bio-Chem ... update

 

62x.gif

 

There seemed to be one, but it went very NEGATIVE for a few weeks.

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CHINA INDICES

 

HK-2823 / China A-shares, quoted in HK ... update

oad.gif

 

CN-SHcomp / Shanghai Index ... update

z5g.gif

 

Time ---Date----- : Close : extra. : D's

( HK-2823)

x.H : 04/06/04-tu : $6.87 : = est.

0.0 : 06/03/05-Fr : $3.53 : $3.42 : +1 : Low

1-h : 09/15/05-th : $4.67 : $4.78 : +0

2-L : 10/26/05-W : $4.03 : $3.95 : +0

3-h : 05/15/06-M : $6.83 : $6.89 : +0 : 2X L

4-L : 06/15/06-th : $5.51 : $5.50 : +0

h-h : 01/02/07-tu : 12.88 : 13.20 : +1

5-H : 10/31/07-W : 27.70 : 28.90 : -1 : High (4X L)

L.1 : 10/27/08-M : $6.87 : $6.87 : +0 : 2X L

H.4 : 08/03/09-M : 16.28 : 16.38 : +1

L.2 : 09/05/12-W : $9.06 : $9.02 : +0

H.5 : 02/04/13-M : 12.04 : 12.14 : +0

L.3 : 06/25/13-M : $8.70 : $8.33 : +0

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China stocks have lagged behind GDP growth

 

ejiw.png

 

The lower Blue line is the historical stock low in 2005 ($3.42) escalated year-by-year by the annual growth in China's GDP, as measured in US$.

(I use US$ GDP growth rate because the HK$ is linked to the US Dollar.)

 

The upper light blue line is the 2004 high, escalated using the same growth rates. The chart shows how crazily high prices got at the 2007 peak ($28.90 intraday), when the market was discounting many years of future growth. When that growth arrived, it brought less profits and a much less healthy Chinese economy than had been expected.

 

The red line is each year's annual low in stock prices (while the dark blue line is the high, and the black line is the year-end price.)

 

As you can see for the last few years stock prices have moved BELOW the lower light blue line:

 

================

Year : Yr-L- : YrEnd Yr-H- / GDPgrew lower upper

2005 : $3.42 : $4.43 : $4.76 / + 16.82% : $3.56 : $6.33

2006 : $4.42 : 11.48 : 12.00 / + 20.20% : $4.28 : $8.89

2007 : 10.38 : 24.50 : 28.90 / + 28.79% : $5.52 : 11.45 // H: 252% of Upper band

2008 : $6.87 : $8.36 : 26.75 / + 29.39% : $7.14 : 14.82

2009 : $8.26 : 14.92 : 16.28 / + 10.40% : $7.88 : 16.36

2010 : 11.40 : 12.74 : 14.90 / + 18.83% : $9.36 : 19.44

2011 : $9.49 : 10.34 : 14.04 / + 23,44% : 11.56 : 24.00

2012 : $9.04 : 11.14 : 12.04 / + 12.38% : 12.99 : 26.97

2013 : $8.33 : $9.12 : 12.14 / + 07.00% : 13.90 : 28.86

================

Low'13 $8.33 / Lower band: $13.90 : 59.93%

 

In other words: The Low for 2013 was a 40% discount to the LOWER GDP Growth band

 

I think that HK-2823 will be a very interesting BUY at $8.00 or lower, if it should fall that low.

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The same type of chart for the Shanghai Composite

 

p4xz.png

 

I don't think the Drop is done yet,.. I can see it retesting the 2013 lows soon, and may retest the important

support level below 1,800 (1,777?). The Lower band for 2013 is 2,788, and 1,777 is 63.7% of that.

 

CN: SHcomp / Shanghai Composite Index ... update

1kp.gif

 

z5g.gif

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