drbubb Posted September 6, 2013 Report Share Posted September 6, 2013 The Bet - Defusing the Population Bomb . Two economists, one big Issue : LIMITS. . Paul Ehrlich wrote the Population Bomb in the 1970's, predicting that rising population would put up the prices of all resources, including food, energy, metals, and everything else. In fact, he thought a famine was already starting. . Julian Simon, an economist who had studied the same issue, disagreed with Ehrlich's thesis. And was willing to make a bet. He suggested that they put together a basket of five commodities costing $1,000, and after 10 years, if the price went down, Erhlich was to pay him the downside difference. And if they went up, Ehrlich would get the upside difference. (In effect, it was an early derivatives trade.) . "Simon even allowed Mr Ehrlich to rig the terms in his favor: Mr Ehrlich was allowed to select the five commodities that would be yardstick." . Ehrlich consulted colleagues, and chose: Chromium, Copper, Nickel, Tin, and Tungsten. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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