COCOA Thread

[drbubb]

COCOA Thread

 

Cocoa : An EASTER PEAK? A possible commodities signal ?

 

This chart looks toppy to me. What is it? Think Chocolate

 

NIB / iPath DJ-UBS Cocoa Subindex Total Return ETN ... update

 

 

...compare with some other commodities ...

 

NIB versus SLV/Silver and CRB ... update

 

 

== ==

Why did I look at this?

I read an article in today's paper, entitled:

 

"Chocolate Egg surprise for Easter is sticker shock" - SCMP

 

Consumers braced for further price increases as supply of cocoa fails to keep up with demand.

 

Cocoa may rally to US$3,210 a tonne on ICE Futures in NY by the end of Dec.,

the highest since July 2011, according to the average estimate of 14 traders and analysts.

 

The US price of cocoa butter ... that accounts for 20 per cent of the price of a chocolate bar,

rose 86 per cent in the 12 months to April 11... the costs of other ingredients is also rising.

 

Global bean production will rise for the first time in three years, reaching 4.1 million tonnes

in the 12 months to Sept.... that would be LESS than the Demand for a second year

 

(Demand / and in the future);

In Germany where per capita chocolate consumption is the highest in the world at 9 kg per year,

confectioners will produce 206 million bunnies for Easter this year, 8.4 per cent more than a

year earlier.

Pre-Easter sales of confection products at British grocery chain Waitrose jumped 14 per cent

from a year earlier...

 

Consumers in Asia-Pacific (are projected to) eat 1.1 million tonnes by 2018, a 27 percent increase

from last year.

 

...increasing prospects of an El Nino weather pattern, which can bring dry winds to West Africa.