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CURRENCIES : Majors versus BRICS, since 12/31/2013


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CURRENCIES : Majors versus BRICS, since 12/31/2013

 

(FX numbers updated below):

 

DXY - and Key Currencies ... update : no lines // DXY: 2013-14 : 10-days

DXY-etc_zps26c16b84.gif

 

==========================

FX - : YrEnd'13: chg%: 6/28/14 : 9/17/14 : +chg%
DXY : 80.035 : - 0.32 % : 79.780 : / 84.541 : +5.97 %

GLD : 116.12 :+10.27% : 128.04 : / 117.54 : - 8.20 %

SLV. : $18.71 : +8.23 % : $ 20.25 : / $17.77 : - 5.02 %

====

FXE : 135.99 : - 0.64 % : 135.12 : / 126.89 : - 6.09 %

FXB : 163.30 : +3.11 % : 168.38 : / 160.06 : - 4.94 %

FXY : $92.76 : +3.76 % : $ 96.25 : / $89.97 : - 3.01 %

FXA : $89.43 : +5.58 % : $ 94.42 : / $89.77 : - 4.92 %

====

RBL : 32.922 : - 3.25 % : 33.987 : / 38.419 : -13.04 %

CNY : 6.0557 : - 2.45 % : 6.2042 : / 6.1414 : +1.01 %

INR. : 61.861 : +2.90 % : 60.065 : / 60.951 : - 1.48 %

BRL : 2.3618 : - 6.35 % : 2.2118 : / 2.3583 : - 6.62 %

Bric. : 1.0000 : - 2.29 % : 0.9710 : / 0.9221 : - 5.03 %

==========

 

HISTORY

BRIC-currencies-since-2007.jpg

 

DXY / USD ... All Data : Cal.2014 : 10-days ... Blog-Post

USD_zps7a7b0a07.png

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BRIC currency charts: CNY, RUB, INR, BRL ... update : 10-days :

 

BRIC-14_zpsa172db80.gif

 

FX - : YrEnd'13: chg%: 6/28/14 : 9/17/14 : +chg%

 

DXY : 80.035 : - 0.32 % : 79.780 : / 84.541 : +5.97 %

 

CNY : 6.0557 : - 2.45 % : 6.2042 : / 6.1414 : +1.01 %

RBL : 32.922 : - 3.25 % : 33.987 : / 38.419 : -13.04 %

INR. : 61.861 : +2.90 % : 60.065 : / 60.951 : - 1.48 %

BRL : 2.3618 : - 6.35 % : 2.2118 : / 2.3583 : - 6.62 %

Bric. : 1.0000 : - 2.29 % : 0.9710 : / 0.9221 : - 5.03 %

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MAJOR currency charts: FXE, FXA, FXB, FXY ... update : 10-days :

 

FXE-etc-14_zps00c9b3bd.gif

 

FX - : YrEnd'13: chg%: 6/28/14 : 9/17/14 : +chg%
DXY : 80.035 : - 0.32 % : 79.780 : / 84.541 : +5.97 %

 

FXE : 135.99 : - 0.64 % : 135.12 : / 126.89 : - 6.09 %

FXB : 163.30 : +3.11 % : 168.38 : / 160.06 : - 4.94 %

FXY : $92.76 : +3.76 % : $ 96.25 : / $89.97 : - 3.01 %

FXA : $89.43 : +5.58 % : $ 94.42 : / $89.77 : - 4.92 %

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OTHER Asia F/X : SGD, IDR, MYR, PHP, ... update : 10-days :

 

AsiaO-etc-14_zps563ee8b3.gif

 

FX - : YrEnd'13: chg%: 6/28/14 : 9/17/14 : +chg%
DXY : 80.035 : - 0.32 % : 79.780 : / 84.541 : +5.97 %
SDG : 1.2628 : +1.28 %: 1.2466 : / 1.2677 : - 1.69 %
MYR : 3.2830 : +2.49 % : 3.2012 : / 3.2378 : - 1.14 %
IDR. : 12,160 : +2.37 % : 11,872 : / 11,988 : - 0.98 %
PHP : 44.393 : +1.74 % : 43.622 : / 44.601 : - 2.24 %
HKD : 7.7539 : +0.05 % : 7.7504 : / 7.7511 : - 0.01 %
====
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The Missing one of the BRICS...

 

ZAR / South African Rand per USD ... Cal-2013-14 : 10-days

 

 

ZAR-14_zps10788188.gif

 

South African Rand Tumbles To 7-Month Lows As Central Bank Governor Steps Down
"South African central bank Governor Gill Marcus said she will step down from her post when her contract expires in November.
Marcus, who turned 65 on Aug. 10, informed President Jacob Zuma of her decision, she told reporters in Pretoria today at the end of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting. Zuma hasn’t yet announced her successor.
“I have advised the president some time ago that I will not be available,” she said. “I think the bank has an outstanding team of leadership, both in the executive monetary policy leadership of management of the bank.”
Marcus, a former deputy finance minister and chairwoman of Barclays Plc’s South African unit, took office in 2009 after the global financial crisis hit"
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Why is the Yen so weak ?

 

FXY / Jap. Yen ... update

 

JPY_zps5695d96b.gif

 

The Tax rises are killing the economy:

 

"...the latest statistics have made for grim reading: In the second quarter, the economy shrank at an annual rate of 7.1 percent — the worst performance since early 2009, at the height of the global financial crisis. Though it has bounced back some since then, that hardly suggests a strong recovery. Japan’s cabinet office Friday downgraded its assessment of the economy, saying that although it continued to improve slowly, “weakness can be seen in some areas,” Jiji Press reported."

Krugman Warns Abe on Tax Increase
Wall Street Journal (blog)-18 Sep 2014Share
Economist Paul Krugman thinks that if Japan's sales tax reaches 10%, it could mean a ...
Economists are divided on the planned tax increase.
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COMMODITIES : CRB versus CU, DBA, WEAT ... update : 10-days :

 

CRB-etc_zpsf584e472.gif

 

MAJOR currency charts: FXE, FXA, FXB, FXY ... update : 10-days :

 

FXE-etc-14_zps00c9b3bd.gif

 

FX - : YrEnd'13: chg%: 6/28/14 : 9/17/14 : +chg%
DXY : 80.035 : - 0.32 % : 79.780 : / 84.541 : +5.97 %

 

FXE : 135.99 : - 0.64 % : 135.12 : / 126.89 : - 6.09 %

FXB : 163.30 : +3.11 % : 168.38 : / 160.06 : - 4.94 %

FXY : $92.76 : +3.76 % : $ 96.25 : / $89.97 : - 3.01 %

FXA : $89.43 : +5.58 % : $ 94.42 : / $89.77 : - 4.92 %

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Dollar Break? This could finally do it - within the next hour or so ... or not

 

Note the high on Sept. 30th 2014 - End of Quarter

idx24_usd_en_2.gif : a Breakdown, might lead to a retest (and break?) of support at 85.50

DXY ... update : $85.84

DXY2_zpsbacf26f8.gif

 

EUR ... update

EUR_zps1fd99c86.gif

 

EUR - 6mos-chart

EUR-6mos_zpse0c41f8c.gif

 

As I posted those charts (above), Gold was at $1,214 - Silver-3d-$17.19

gold.gif

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Brazilian markets take fright as prospects grow of Rousseff re-election

 

+ Widening her lead before Sunday election (ahead of Marina Silva)

+ Fears that another 4 years of Rousseff govt will lead to rising fiscal deficits

+ Fears of more govt intervention to fight inflation

+ In campaigning, she has "moved to the left", and may have trouble returning to the center

 

BZF / WisdomTree Brazilian Real Strategy Fund (ETF) ... update

bzf_zps528bf935.gif

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Ruble is down... with Oil

 

RUB vs. OILB/brent and USO/usOil ... update / RUBusd: $0.0252 / USDrub: R-39.85

 

Ruble-vsOILB_zpsf62879a3.gif

 

Per the WSJ:

"Official data suggest the (Russian) central bank spent at least $700 million from its reserves

to limit the Ruble's slide last week."

"Ruble hit by... capital flight, an economic slowdown, and Western sanctions... as oil has tumbled."

"Local demand for hard currencies... as banks and companies have limited access to external borrowing,

due to Western sanctions."

Oleg Kouzmin, chief economist at Renaissance Capital in Moscow, said:

"The fair ruble price for oil between $95 and $100 a barrel stands at around 36 rubles per dollar."

 

It has occurred to me that the Russians may have sold some of their gold, to get the funds

they need to buy Rubles.

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Don't ignore the Ruble, in your Gold analysis... RUB-6-mos

 

RUB_zps48099978.gif

 

Here's the mechanism:

+ EU and the US impose sanctions (announced 17-June)

+ Russian co's and banks cannot borrow USD and other hard currencies

+ Russian co's scramble to get hard currency to meet obligations

+ Ruble falls to 39.85, rather than R-36 per USD, as is "justified" by lower oil price

+ Russian banks and co's have to sell some of their gold holdings, to get needed currency

 

Ruble is down... with Oil

 

RUB vs. OILB/brent and USO/usOil ... update / RUBusd: $0.0252 / USDrub: R-39.85

 

Ruble-vsOILB_zpsf62879a3.gif

 

Per the WSJ:

"Official data suggest the (Russian) central bank spent at least $700 million from its reserves

to limit the Ruble's slide last week."

"Ruble hit by... capital flight, an economic slowdown, and Western sanctions... as oil has tumbled."

"Local demand for hard currencies... as banks and companies have limited access to external borrowing,

due to Western sanctions."

Oleg Kouzmin, chief economist at Renaissance Capital in Moscow, said:

"The fair ruble price for oil between $95 and $100 a barrel stands at around 36 rubles per dollar."

 

It has occurred to me that the Russians may have sold some of their gold, to get the funds

they need to buy Rubles.

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Help needed - Coming soon?

 

GAZPROM MAY BORROW FROM CHINA AT END YR-BEG. 2015: IFX

 

 

This Should take some of the selling pressure off Gold and the Ruble

 

Meantime, the Ruble has continued weak ... Ruble-etc-chart

 

RUB-etc_zps848aef9e.gif

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Rickards' SDR SOLUTION has a better chance (of working as a Global Currency), if China is part of it

 

NEWS AND VIEWS FROM THE NEFARIUM OCT 9 2014

=

=

 

Published on 9 Oct 2014

American federal lawsuits and European GMO producers, and China makes a bid to enter the SDR (special drawing rights) basket of currencies,

a unit of account used in central bank transcations.

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THIS FEAR has been overhanging the Ruble for weeks

 

The just-announced FX swap with China may help to diminish it

 

Russian ruble tanks on talk of capital controls
Published: Sept 30, 2014
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. dollar jumped versus the Russian ruble Tuesday after a news report said Russia's central bank is weighing whether to impose capital controls to halt money flowing out of the country. The dollar fetched 39.667 rubles in recent action, up 0.5%. The ruble also crossed the threshold of 44.4 rubles to a euro-U.S. dollar basket that the Russian central bank has said would prompt intervention, news reports said. According to Bloomberg, the central bank is considering capital controls that would be used only if net outflows rise significantly.
==
>
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Dollar Domination vs Yuan - scmp

 

Yuan transformation into a global currency has been speedy,

But major reforms are needed if China is to seriously challenge the US Dollar's status

 

+ "For China, a major lesson of 2008 was that Western banks are not reliable partners," (Gavekal)

+ The realisation that funding could be cutoff is driving Chinese banks to push for more global Yuan role

+ Over 10,000 global financial institutions are using yuan, up from 900 in 2011

+ 61% percent of Global reserves are held in the US Dollar, compared with a 48% peak for GBP (decades ago)

+ Holding Yuan: needed for trade, and can be a bet on future appreciation of its value

+ Returns can be higher than USD assets (of similar credit rating)

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Ruble weak along with rising Bear etf ... update

 

RUB-etc_zps827347bb.gif

 

Ruble hits Lows against Dollar; "There's Panic Now" - wsj

 

A new wave of selling is hitting the Ruble, amid fears that the central back will be unable to halt the slide.

 

+ Ruble is down to 42.01 per USD

+ Globally, oil hovered near $86

+ S&P has kept the Russian bond rating at triple-B-minus, just above junk grade

+ Companies with foreign debt are concerned about how to get dollars and other foreign FX

+ In the first three weeks of October, the Russian central bank spent a record $18.2 billion defending the Ruble

+ Russian banks and co's have to redeem $46.5bn in foreign debt in the last three months, with more than $30bn in Dec.

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http://www.sovereignman.com/trends/the-dollar-decline-continues-china-begins-direct-convertibility-to-asias-1-financial-center-15435/

 

The dollar decline continues: China begins direct convertibility to Asia’s #1 financial center

 

....The Chinese government announced that the renminbi will become directly convertible with the Singapore dollar… effective tomorrow morning.....

 

For decades the renminbi has been a tightly controlled currency. It’s only been in the last few years that the Chinese government started loosening those controls, primarily in response to the obvious need for a dollar competitor.

The entire world is screaming for an alternative to the dollar and the US government.

Since the end of World War II, the US has been in the driver seat. The Fed essentially sets global monetary policy. Foreign banks are forced to rely on the US banking system. Nearly every nation on earth must hold US dollars and buy US government debt just to be able to trade with one another.

These were sacred privileges entrusted to the US government. And they have been abused time and time again.

The US government spies on its allies. It uses its banking system as a weapon to threaten foreign companies. It fines foreign banks billions of dollars for doing business with countries it doesn’t like.

They discredit themselves by continuing to indebt future generations and failing to make tough fiscal decisions.

And the Fed has printed so much money that major foreign institutions are left with no choice but to seek an alternative. Enough is enough.

China is taking the lead in providing the world with another option. And they’re not exactly doing this under cover of darkness. These moves have been widely telegraphed, at least to anyone paying attention.

 

SGD : Dollar near Top-of-Range $1.28

 

SGD_zps44b10ca2.png

 

Gold in SGD : After a triple bottom, A higher low being made ?

 

AB_zps8f4c85ac.png

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Rousseff election victory sparks sharp falls in stocks and real

 

+ Brazilian currency drops to nine-year low

+ Vote splits country between rich and poor

 

"we have a serious shadow over Brazil, which is the possibility of a credit downgrade,

so she (Rousseff) needs to move quickly" - FT

 

Rating agencies have said they will downgrade Brazil, if it cannot improve growth

 

Real-etc_zpsb53ebb4c.gif

 

Reconciliation expected from Rousseff after Brazil divided

 

+ 51.64 % : Rousseff

+ 48.36 % : Neves

========

Closest margin in recent memory

 

Turning around economy tops agenda for president after narrow poll victory

 

"during the election, Ms Rousseff and her mentor (Lula)... she turned the party to the Left..."

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The Weak Yen is due a rally (or at least some stabilization) soon

 

Why is the Yen so weak ?

 

FXY / Jap. Yen ... update

 

JPY_zps5695d96b.gif

 

The Tax rises are killing the economy:

 

"...the latest statistics have made for grim reading: In the second quarter, the economy shrank at an annual rate of 7.1 percent — the worst performance since early 2009, at the height of the global financial crisis....

 

 

The Yen Weaker still, as Japan begins some new QE ... update

 

Ac_zps70b522f4.gif

 

The Yen may have to bounce off that lower trendline more than once

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The Ruble is "getting messy" thanks to falling Oil prices, and sanctions

 

RUBLE versus DTO (the Oil Bear etf) ... update : USDRUB : 46.80, hit 53.7 yesterday ! (year low: 33)

 

Ruble-vsOILB_zpsdadfc5a9.gif

 

Ruble Slide Continues as Investors Fret Over Stagnating Economy
Wall Street Journal-13 hours agoShare
The ruble fell to fresh lows on Thursday as investors worried about the deepening impact of western sanctions on Russia's stagnant economy ...
Russian Ruble Continues to Fall
Voice of America-5 hours ago
=== ===
The Russian ruble fell to fresh record lows Thursday as investors sold the currency heavily a day after the central bank said it would cut back costly intervention and allow the exchange rate to be set mainly by market forces.
. . .
A strong dollar, declining oil prices, and a weak economy have finally taken the wheels off the Russian ruble. It has finally sunk in that the Central Bank is not going to act in defense of the ruble anytime soon. And on Thursday, the currency fell 3.87% to RUB46.68, it’s weakest level in 14 years.
Last month, the Finance Minister, Anton Siluanov, said that the government was not going to blow through its reserve fund to keep the ruble from weakening. Now that it has a strong dollar and weak oil dragging it down, it has become evident that the Central Bank is going to sit quiet, at least for now.
The ruble is down 12.4% against the dollar in the last month, making it the worst commodity currency in the market.
“Our near-term expectation is for the ruble to reach 45, but it could move to 47 or higher,” said Vladimir Signorelli, founder of investment research firm Bretton Woods LLC.
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The Ruble was the Headline in today's FT
... as it rose slightly on Friday to 46.68 -0.165 (up +0.35% in Ruble terms)
... and DTO : $45.68 -0.58 : -1.25% / WTI : $78.43 +0.60 : +0.77%
... and DXY : 87.566 -0.506 : -0.57% / FXE : $122.67 +0.72 : +0.59%
... while other Currencies, like the Ph. Peso rose +35% (usdPHP: 44.86 )
PLUNGING RUBLE raises spectre of fresh financial crisis for Russia
"Central bank warns as currency hits dollar low... Oil price & Ukraine bite"
+ Volatile range Capped a week where the Ruble fell 8%, biggest drop in 11 years
+ A casualty of falling oil prices, which fell 25% since mid-June
+ Painful reminder of 1998 and 2008-9, but Putin's popularity reminds at record high
+ The country stands by its decision to free-float the currency
+ Expectations of further falls have contributed to the slide (ie may be overdone)
+ Some queues formed at banks, to change currency

 

 

The Ruble is "getting messy" thanks to falling Oil prices, and sanctions

 

RUBLE versus DTO (the Oil Bear etf) ... update : USDRUB : 46.80, hit 53.7 yesterday ! (year low: 33)

 

Ruble-vsOILB_zpsdadfc5a9.gif

 

Ruble Slide Continues as Investors Fret Over Stagnating Economy
The ruble fell to fresh lows on Thursday as investors worried about the deepening impact of western sanctions on Russia's stagnant economy ...
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  • 1 month later...

TALKING RUSSIA DOWN - seems to be the mission of the FT

 

+ "The Rouble Crisis reveals Putins strategic failure" - Editorial, pg. 8

"Only a Russian exit from Ukraine can begin to restore confidence

 

Ruble - USD in Rubles ... update

RUB_zpsfb4bac3f.gif

 

+ "Russian financial crisis looms as rouble turmoil causes global jitters" - Headline, pg. 1

"Plunge in currency described as critical as investors start to pile into haven assets.

/ thanks for the word "start", you scvmbag news spinners! - DrB /

"Russia is in a full-blown crisis... It's difficult to see the... stress ending."

 

+ "Russia is heading into an economic storm with no captain" - Comment, pg. 9

"Rosneft issued rouble dominated bonds worth $11bn" (when it failed to get funds from the Russian SWF)

The bonds could used as collateral by the Russian C.B. to borrow from the bank itself.

The FT calls this a "highly questionable tool", which "increased the risk in the banking system"

"It became clear that the govt.... has neither a strategy, nor clear understanding"

"Moscow made one policy mistake after another."

"Unless sanctions are lifted, the Russian economy will grow much worse in 2015."

 

"Fear leads to Anger... RCB demonstration of fear, raising rates from 10.5 to 17 percent" - Short View, pg.13

"The Rouble fell 26 per cent, most ... since the brink of default in 1998."

 

==

If ever you wanted evidence that the FT is a Rothschild cabal-controlled organ, you have it today !

 

Does "FT" mean: "Fecking 'Tards" ?

Perhaps they want to quickly raise oil prices, and their intent is to do as much damage to Russia as

they can, by talking the country's asset values down, in this Low-Oil-price window

 

Russia has a serious problem in that there are something like US$35 Billion of Debt payments to be

made before year end.

 

Question: Is Russia now negotiating some sort of financial rescue with China?

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  • 3 weeks later...

Max got this right, it seems :

(and the FT got it badly wrong)

 

 

Just after ruble hit 80 - I said ruble crash was a hoax and buy it 'till your hands bleed: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MpYXMZbjGdY … #YoureWelcome

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  • 2 months later...

Yesterday brought a Rare HUGE Move (down) in the USD !

 

Mar.: -DXY-- -Chg- : --TLT--: -Chg- : Posts= / Views: cum'l
17: 99.603 +0.106 : 129.00 +1.06 : 06 : 083 / 086 : 1,206 /
18: 97.807 - 1.796 : 131.49 +2.49 : 03 : 086 / 166 : 1,472 /

=========

-1.796 = - 1.80%

 

EUR (in USD) ... update

EUR_zpsvqncciul.gif

 

My old call that about $1.05 would be key support for the Euro is looking good

This is an old chart... Click for an UPDATE

EUR1_zpsgwtst7qz.gif

 

As Updated

DXY-lt_zpssnzq5hol.gif

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