Hang Lung Properties / Group - good Buy near $14, $20?

[drbubb]

Hang Lung Properties / HL Group - very interesting near $14, $20 (was $17, 24)

UPDATE: End Sep.2021

Ten Year Downtrend in HK10... But now deeply oversold, along with China stocks

HK101-etc, Update: FLIP: 10d /.hk10: $18.12 + 0.24, hk101: $17.82 -0.14, HK2823: $18.07 +0.05

HK-etc - from: 1/2003: 1/2019: 10d:



===

HK10 has been leading HK2823 / China A50  ... update : fr. May 2018 : w/HLP : HK$21.05 vs H$17.38 = 121% at 5/28/19

CHALLENGING The Top of RANGE" I said in Sept 2019. - What happened?

HK10-etc ... update : fr. Sep.2018 : 10d/ The HK10 price is HIGHER now

02.14.'20: hk10: $21.00. hk101: $18.20 (115%). hk2823: $14.50 (145%) - New

"Over 10 years ago, HLP embarked on an ambitious wealth-building venture in the property space, entailing utilising the over HKD20bn in profit it stands to realise from Hong Kong’s residential property sector to fund a series of ambitious investments in China in an attempt to transform itself into a leading player in the commercial property sector in Greater China. "

Hang Lung Group interesting too, approaching $26 - trading near 60%, 50% of Book, respectively

At end 2017, HLG owned 55.7% of HLP, up from 53%. As HLG's ownership rises, fewer dividends "leak out" to minority shareholders

DIVIDEND FLOW: In 2018, HLG bot 87M HLP sh x $17.38= $1,512M Cost, now owns 57.6% HLP (at Feb.2019)

UPDATE: 5/28/19
/ HLP @ $17.38 = HLPPY: US$11.09
/ 57% $30.58 BV
(57.62%: 2.59B)
(x$0.75: $1.94B > Excess CF: $850M > HLG, Net Div. Flow
/ HLG @ $21.05 = HNLGY: US$13.18 (118.8%)
/ 33% $63.49 BV
(100% : 1.362B)
(x$0.80: $1.09B)
/ In 2018, HLG bot 87M HLP sh x $17.38= $1,512M, spending $662M more than Net Divs

The old target I mentioned a while ago has been hit: $17 for HLP, $24 for HLG.

CHART : Calendar 2014 - 18 : update : / 10d: HK10 : HK101 : Both : 870001 : update-4/26/18: $23.95,  $18.40

Hang Lung Properties (HK:101) closed yesterday (Sept.8th at): +$17.40 + 0.40 :: +2.35%

Open: 17.30 / High: 17.48 / Low: 17.00 // Volume: 672,675

Yield: 1.95% / P/E Ratio: 6.90 / 52 Week Range: 16.96 to 26.45

COMPARE - HLG owns almost 53%* of HLP ++ some other assets *> 55.7% at 12.2017 !

=========== : -- Aug. 2015 --- / --- Apr. 2018 -- /
Company----- : Group- : -Props. / Group- : -Props. / Change : Change :
Stock Symbol: HK-10 : HK101 / HK-10 : HK101  /
Last Price---- : $29.10 : $17.40 / $23.95 : $18.40 / -17.7% : +5.75% :
Low of year--: $28.60 : $16.96 / $23.85 : $17.28  /
Book Value-- : $56.86 : $29.50 / $61.06 : $30.27  / +7.39% : +2.61% :
Price / Book- :  51.2 % : 59.0 % /  39.1 % :  57.1 % /
Shares O/S -- : 1.35bn : 4.48bn /  1.36bn : 4.50bn /
MktCap. HKD : $39.3B: $78.0B / $32.6B: $82.8B /
Earnings / sh :   $ 4.82 :  $ 2.52 /  $ 3.90 :  $ 1.81 /  -19.1% : -18.2% :
P/E Ratio -------- : r-6.04 :  r-6.90 /    r-6.14 : r-10.17 /
Yield -------------- : 1.30 % : 1.95 % /  3.34 % :  4.08 % /
Div. per share :  $ 0.38 : $ 0.34  /  $ 0.80 :  $0.75  / +111.% : +121.% :
Debt to Equity : --n/a--  : --n/a-  : 18.97%  :  17.69% :
EBITDA---------  :  --n/a--  : --n/a-  : $7.92B  :  $7.45B :
MCap/editda  :  --n/a--  : --n/a-  : r- 4.12 :  r-11.11 :
Free CF---------  :  --n/a--  : --n/a-  : (8.71B) :  (4.40B) :

On 8/12/2015 at 2:50 PM, DrBubb said:

Hui Xian vs. Hang Lung Companies

(Hui Xian and HL-Props track each other!)

Symbol : Co.------- : Price-- : PE-R. : Yield% : Div. ? : Earn? :
87001 : Hui Xian- : #03.36 : 17.52 : 8.11% : #0.27 : #0.00 :
HK10- : HL-Group: $33.65 : 6.981 : 1.13% : $0.38 : $0.00 :
HK101 : HL-Prop. : $20.00 : 7.937 : 1.70% : $0.34 : $2.52 :
HK101 : @ target : $17.50 : 6.940 : 1.94% : $0.34 : $2.52 :

HK:87001 / Hui Xian vs. Hang Lung Cos. ... update

Hang Lung Group could hit $17-18 - and a possible yield of 1.94 % - PE 6.9

HK-101 : Hang Lung Properties ... update : 3-yrs : 10-d

RATIOs (HLP/HLG etc) over time:

Owning HLG or HLP has been a poor hedge against rising HK Property prices

QTR. : HK-10 : HK101 : Ratio--  : -CCLI - : hlg/CC :
e.00: $$6.95 : $$8.70 : 125.2% :
e.01: $$6.90 : $$8.05 : 116.7% : $40.28 : 19.99% :
e.02: $$6.40 : $$7.55 : 118.0% : $35.77 : 21.11% :
e.03: $$9.70 : $$9.95 : 102.6% : $37.51 : 26.53% :
e.04: $15.30 : $12.00 : 78.43% : $49.30 : 24.34% :
e.05: $16.45 : $12.10 : 73.56% : $52.51 : 23.04% :
e.06: $23.65 : $19.50 : 82.98% : $53.93 : 36.16% :
e.07: $42.60 : $35.30 : 82.86% : $67.59 : 52.23% > HLG at highest ratio vs CCLI
e.08: $23.45 : $16.84: 71.81% : $56.78 : 29.66% :

BkV.: $61.06 : $30.27 :  Apr. 2018

Hang Lung / HK10 vs HK101 - since 2008 :

==================
QTR. : HK-10 : HK101 : Ratio-- : -CCLI - : hlg/CC :
e.08: $23.45 : $16.84 : 71.81% : $56.78 : 29.66% :
e.09: $38.65 : $30.60 : 79.17% : $74.07 : 41.31% > highest ratio since GFC
e.10: $51.10 : $36.35 : 71.14% : $88.38 : 41.13% :
Q-1 : $48.15 : $34.05 : 70.72% : $96.98 : 35.11% :
Q-2 : $49.30 : $31.90 : 64.71% : 100.29 : 31.81% :
Q-3 : $39.85 : $23.40 : 58.72% : $99.80 : 23.45% :
e.11: $42.55 : $22.10 : 51.94% : $95.47 : 23.15% :
Q-1 : $50.25 : $28.45 : 56.62% : 101.17 : 28.12% :
Q-2 : $47.55 : $26.20 : 55.10% : 105.47 : 24.84% :
Q-3 : $49.15 : $26.50 : 53.92% : 110.14 : 24.06% :
e.12: $44.05 : $30.80 : 69.92% : 115.60 : 26.64% :
Q-1 : $43.60 : $29.00 : 66.51% : 123.01 : 23.58% :
Q-2 : $41.70 : $27.05 : 64.87% : 121.88 : 22.19% :
Q-3 : $41.40 : $26.40 : 63.77% : 119.83 : 22.03% :
e.13: $39.15 : $24.50 : 62.80% : 118.96 : 20.60% :
Q-1 : $39.05 : $22.30 : 57.11% : 118.82 : 18.77% :
Q-2 : $41.95 : $23.90 : 56.97% : 123.35 : 19.38% :
Q-3 : $38.45 : $22.10 : 57.48% : 127.65 : 17.31% :
e.14: $35.20 : $21.75 : 61.79% : 133.34 : 16.31% :
Q-1 : $35.35 : $21.80 : 61.67% : 142.64 : 15.28% :
Q-2 : $34.15 : $23.05 : 67.50% : 143.15 : 16.10% :
Q-3 : $26.30 : $17.36 : 66.01% : 147.61 : 11.76% : Lowest ratio vs CCLI
e.15: $25.20 : $17.64 : 70.00% :
Q-1 : $22.25 : $14.82 : 66.61% :
Q-2 : $23.25 : $15.62 : 67.18% :
Q-3 : $29.50 : $17.44 : 59.12% :
e.16: $27.00 : $16.44 : 60.89% :
Q-1 : $33.15 : $20.20 : 60.94% :
Q-2 : $32.30 : $19.50 : 60.37% :
Q-3 : $28.05 : $18.54 : 66.10% :
e.17: $28.75 : $19.10 : 66.43% :
Q-1 : $25.65 : $18.28 : 71.27% :
Q-2 : $22.00 : $16.18 : 73.55% :

BkV.: $61.06 : $30.27 :  Apr. 2018
BkV. : $56.86 : $29.50 : 51.88%
Last-: $26.90 : $17.70 :  65.80% : 146.76 : 12.06% > HLG at lowest ratio vs CCLI
Pr/Bk 47.31%: 60.00% : 126.8%

HK:10 / HLG -- all data

=====
Bigcharts Historical : xx
Centaline Index----- : http://www1.centadata.com/cci/cci_e.htm   : Search :
LINKS
=====
Annual Report 2017 :  HLG : HLP / 2014: http://www.hanglung.com/HLGAnnualReport2014/index.html
Prior Year Reports - :: http://www.hanglung.com/en/investor-relations/financial-information/financial-reports.aspx

Analyst Coverage - :: (#17) https://www.hanglung.com/en-US/investor-relations/analyst-coverage

US$ Quote/ HLPPY : https://money.cnn.com/quote/forecast/forecast.html?symb=HLPPY

[drbubb]

UPDATE: 9/22/21
/ HLP os: 4,498Msh, 2,617M held by HLG (58.16%) / HLG os: 1,362M sh, ye’20
/ HLP @ $17.20 = HLPPY: US$11.22
/ 56% $30.74 BV
 Div.$0.76: $3.42B x58.16%= $1.99B/1,362M HLG= $1.46 inc.Div/HLG sh.
(x$0.76: $1.99B > Excess CF: $870M > HLG, Net Div. Flow in 2020
/ HLG @ $17.54 = HNLGY: US$12.65 (112.7%) ’21
/ 25.9% $67.62 BV
 (100% : 1.362B),  div (x$0.82: $1.12B)
/  In 2018, HLG bot 10.7M HLP sh x $18.60= cost $200M: in 2020
: 2616.6M ye’20, - 2605.9M ye’19: 10.7M HLP shares added
: $870M - $200M = $670M excess CF after divs,, HLP sh. Purchases 

=======

RENTAL Turnover keeps rising - meaning increased Cash Flow

 

Net Asset Value per share ....... Dividends per share

:

 

> http://www.hanglung.com/HLGAnnualReport2014/index.html

[drbubb]

Hang Lung Group Ltd. (0010.HK): $29.50 Up 0.30 : +1.03%

Valuation Measures
Market Cap (intraday)5: 39.97B
Enterprise Value (Sep 9, 2015)3: 42.26B
Trailing P/E (ttm, intraday): 5.85
Forward P/E (fye Dec 31, 2016)1: N/A
PEG Ratio (5 yr expected)1: N/A
Price/Sales (ttm): 2.19
Price/Book (mrq): 0.51
Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm)3: 2.34
Enterprise Value/EBITDA  (ttm)6: 3.22
=====

Income Statement
Revenue (ttm): 18.02B
Revenue Per Share    (ttm): 13.31
Qtrly Revenue Growth (yoy): 1.30%
Gross Profit (ttm): 13.76B
EBITDA (ttm)6: 13.11B
Net Income Avl to Common (ttm): 6.54B
Diluted EPS (ttm): 5.04
=====

Balance Sheet
Total Cash (mrq): 36.48B
Total Cash Per Share (mrq): 26.92
Total Debt (mrq): 39.43B
Total Debt/Equity (mrq): 27.15
Current Ratio (mrq): 2.37
Book Value    (mrq): $56.86 / share

> http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=0010.HK+Key+Statistics

Business Summary

Hang Lung Group Limited, an investment holding company, operates in the property development market in Hong Kong and Mainland China. It engages in the property development for sale and lease, including large-scale commercial, office, and residential developments; property investment for rental; and other investments. The company also holds a portfolio of investment properties comprising two large-scale developments in Shanghai; Grand Gateway 66, the commercial, office, and residential complex; Plaza 66, the commercial and office complex; landmark complexes, including Parc 66 in Jinan, as well as Palace 66 and Forum 66 in Shenyang; and serviced apartments and carparks. In addition, it offers car park management and property management, financial, management, property agency, and securities trading services. The company was founded in 1960 and is based in Central, Hong Kong.

[drbubb]

Latest Press Briefing : End July 2015

 

Event: Analyst Briefing - 2015 Interim Results

Date: July 30, 2015 (Thursday)

Time: 4:00pm HKT

Hosts:

Mr. Ronnie Chan, Chairman / Mr. Philip Chen, Managing Director / Mr. HC Ho, Executive Director

==

> http://edge.media-server.com/m/p/8aiuvxv4

> Other Briefings: http://www.hanglung.com/en/investor-relations/webcast.aspx

 

Mr Chan mentioned the "tough trading environment" in China, where some new malls (not Hang Lung's!) were getting only 10% capacity utilization.

HL's new malls were getting 70%, but some like HL's existing malls in Shanghai, were still showing growing income.

 

+ HL will open a "very large mall" at the end of the year, which will cause the margins to drop. But with no new openings in 2016, the margins should start rising again. The new mall will require HL to add 500 new staff.

 

: Olympia 66, Dalian

 

+ HKD 3 billion capex in the first half, associated with the new mall (Olympia 66 in Dalian, 222k sq.m x$3k = $666mn pa rental? when mature? )

+ HL is one of the Top two malls for luxury brands (in Shanghai), so they have limited competition

+ There is real pressure for rental reversions, but HL has been able to fight this off with their premium branding

+ They are bringing in tenants (like TNG's expensive teashops) to make their malls a place "to see and be seen"

+ HKD 1.3 bn to be spent on upgrading Plaza 66 and Grand Gateway; payback expected in xx years

[drbubb]

"Beware of Chinese valuations" - was a warning I got from someone with whom I discussed this idea

He gave the following mainland mall owner as an example

Rehne Commercial -- (HK:1387) ... update

Renhe : Price/Book : $0.44 / $0.10 = r-4.26 / more financials

Note: Ebitda: -$36.26mn, Net Income: -$210.8mn on $19.35Bn MktCap

Business Summary

Renhe Commercial Holdings Company Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the development, lease, and management of shopping malls in the Peoples Republic of China. It manages 22 malls across 12 cities in China. The company was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Harbin, the Peoples Republic of China. Renhe Commercial Holdings Company Limited is a subsidiary of Shining Hill Investments Limited.

Website: http://www.renhebusiness.com

[drbubb]

COMPARISON - More Detail HLG vs. HLP

Company------ : Group : Props. :

Symbol-------- : HK-10 : HK101 :
Last Price----- : $29.10 : $17.40 :
Total Cash/sh- : $29.57 : $8.898 :
Balance Sheet
Total Cash---- : $40.22 : $39.95 : HKD, in bn.s
Total Assets-- : $205.4 :
: China leasing: $96.32 :
: H.K. leasing- : $58.92 :
Net Assets---- : $144.7 : $132.3 :
Total Debt----- : $40.14 : $35.10 :
Sh-hld Equity- : $76.03 : $132.3 :
Shares O/S--- : 1.36bn : 4.49bn :
Book Value/sh.: $55.90 : $29.50 :
. .
Revenues ----- : $17.61 : $17.03 :
Rental T/over- : $7.792 : $7.216 :
Rent/% leas.as.: 5.01 % :
Net Profit------- : $12.74 :
N.P., sharehldr. : $6.825 : $10.02 :
Price/Earnings : r- 5.80 : r- 7.77 :

Rentals/per sh.: $ 5.729 : $ 1.607 :
Rental / Price-- : 19.69% : 9.236% :

===========

HLG 53% ownership stake in HLP, and so:

HLP - MktCap ($78.13bn : 4.49bn x $17.40) x 52.9% = $41.33bn

HLG - MktCap ($39.58bn : 1.36bn x $29.10) which is -4.24% discount to HLP holding

: : : : Discount = $1.75bn vs. $5.04bn of extra Debt (ignoring $270mn extra cash)

this net difference of $3.29bn puts a very low value on HLG's Grand Gateway

: 2.2mn sf mixed use complex in Shanghai : just $1,495 psf for a prime site.

: image: http://www.hanglung.com/Libraries/Page_banner_-_Mainland_China_Properties/cn_main_shanghai_grand_gateway_1.sflb.ashx

Symbol---------- : HK-10 : HK101 :
Last Price------ : $27.70 : $17.80 :
Shares O/S---- : 1.36bn : 4.49bn :
Book Value/sh.: $55.90: $29.50 :
Discount, Book: -50.4% : -39.7% :
Market Cap----- : $37.67b: $79.92b:
HLG, 52.9%----- : $42.28b
Discount-------- : $4.61 bn
Debt difference: $4.77 bn
Net difference : $0.16 bn

/ 2.2mn sf----- : $0,072 psf - Prime Shanghai location

[drbubb]

CHAIRMAN's Letter

HL Properties: HK:101

RESULTS AND DIVIDEND

For the year ended December 31, 2014, turnover soared 86% to HK$17,030 million. Net profit attributable to shareholders jumped 62% to HK$11,704 million. Earnings per share rose similarly to HK$2.61.

BUSINESS REVIEW

I told shareholders six months ago that I intended to lengthen the letter at mid-year while at times slightly shorten the year-end one in order to better communicate with them. In so doing, management thinking will be shared twice yearly in a more timely manner. A few shareholders, both institutional and individual, have expressed the value they place on this letter and their wish that the amount of information will not be diminished as a result of this change. I can assure them that they have nothing to worry about. The same effort will be given as before except they would now hear from me more fully on the same substance — economic and market analysis as well as company strategy — every six months instead of every twelve.

PROSPECTS

It is not easy to foresee a situation where government policy or market forces will significantly change the retail scene in both Hong Kong and the Mainland. As a result, it is safe to expect a rental prospect for the coming year to be similar to that of 2014.

Ronnie C. Chan
Chairman / Hong Kong, March 11, 2015

> http://www.hanglung.com/HLPAnnualReport2014/chairman.html

 

HL Group: HK:10
BUSINESS REVIEW

Our major subsidiary Hang Lung Properties was able to almost sell out the remaining The HarbourSide units and part with 151 The Long Beach apartments. As a result, both turnover and profit for the year were very strong. Profit margins achieved in both projects were higher than that in all previous sales.

PROSPECTS

It is very difficult, if not impossible, for an ordinary citizen like me to know when China’s anti-corruption campaign will let up. But regardless of timing, the luxury goods market in which we play will sooner or later find its “new normal”. We should be psychologically prepared as the new level may be lower than the heyday of pre-2013. What is certain, however, is that the market will resume its growth from there.

Ronnie C. Chan
Chairman . Hong Kong, March 11, 2015

> http://www.hanglung.com/HLGAnnualReport2014/chairman.html#section2

[drbubb]

A Growing Gap -- as HL Group hits a new low, and HL Properties doesn't

HK:10 - : Hang Lung Group : HK$27.95 -1.35 : -4.61%

Open: 29.05 / High: 29.25 / Low: 27.90

Volume: 652,855 / Yield: 1.36% / P/E Ratio: 5.799 / 52wk: 27.90 to 45.00

 

HK:101 : Hang Lung Props. : HK$17.78 -0.46 : -2.52%

Open: 17.98 / High: 18.02 / Low: 17.70

Volume: 2,461,078 / Yield: 1.91% / P/E Ratio: 7.056 / 52wk: 16.96 to 26.45

The price discrepancy may be influenced by a buyback by HLG of HLP shares (- just guessing!)

 

HK10 vs HK101 ... 10-days / Cal.2014-15 : 6-mos : 4-yrs : 10-yrs : AllData // Hui Xian vs. HLP: 10d

All Data...

NEWS story :

Third Avenue Real Estate Value Fund Letter Part 1

GuruFocus.com (registration)-16 hours ago

For instance, during the quarter the common stock of Hang Lung Group, a Hong Kong based holding company with a 53% ownership stake in ...

. . .

With volatility in Chinese stock markets spilling over to the Hong Kong market, certain companies in Hong Kong have traded to historically low valuations. For instance, during the quarter the common stock of Hang Lung Group, a Hong Kong based holding company with a 53% ownership stake in Hung Lung Properties and other real estate investments, traded at prices that implied a value below the market value of its stake in Hang Lung Properties (without factoring any uplift for the Group’s additional ownership position in a 2.2 million square foot class-A office and residential space at the Grand Gateway complex in Shanghai).

 

Consequently, the Fund sold its stock in Hang Lung Properties and purchased Hang Lung Group, essentially trading one discounted security for an even more discounted security. Hang Lung Properties had been held in the Fund off and on for nearly 10 years. The Hong Kong-based real estate operating company historically concentrated on commercial properties and residential projects in Hong Kong. Hang Lung Chairman Ronnie Chan was a pioneer in China, developing retail led class-A mixed-use projects more than a decade ago. After enormous success in Shanghai, Hang Lung branched out to other cities in China, where it now has seven large-scale projects open with three more under development.

 

Once completed, the company’s properties in China will comprise more than 54 million square feet of space (approximately one-third of the size of Simon Property Group’s portfolio) and form one of the most productive and valuable portfolios in the region. The process of undertaking these large-scale developments is a challenging one, but the long-term value creation taking place as these projects open and stabilize should lead to outsized NAV growth and reward both Hang Lung Properties and Hang Lung Group shareholders. At this point in time, however, Group shareholders may benefit disproportionately given the larger discount and the outside chance that the company collapses the holding company structure. With the additions to Hang Lung Group and Cheung Kong Property during the quarter, the Fund’s exposure to Hong Kong based companies increased to 13% of net assets. Fund Management has been increasingly mindful of the impact global currency movements could have on the underlying value of the Fund’s Hong Kong holdings.

 

At the present time the Fund doesn’t have currency exposure relating to these investments, per se, as the Hong Kong dollar ($HKD) is pegged to the United States dollar ($USD). It is no longer inconceivable, though, that at some point over the next few years Hong Kong could elect to re-peg the $HKD to a basket of currencies or even the Chinese renminbi. Should such a scenario play out, there would no doubt be short-term market dislocations (potentially great buying opportunities for the Fund’s well-capitalized property companies), but the Fund’s investments could end up in a currency that is re-pegged at a rate that is lower than what exists today.

 

While the chances of this occurring still seem remote, the Fund purchased two-year put options on the $HKD for its entire notional exposure at a price that is approximately 3% below the current exchange rate. After purchasing the $HKD put option, the Fund has hedging instruments in place for its entire notional exposure in Europe, Australia, and Hong Kong.

 

(HL have done buybacks in the past):

 

Hang Lung Group shows faith in property with buy-backs

South China Morning Post-Feb 6, 2014

Hang Lung purchases HK$2.5b of shares in subsidiary, joining rivals in buying spree

. . .

Hang Lung Group, chaired by Ronnie Chan Chichung, yesterday announced it acquired 100.98 million shares in its subsidiary Hang Lung Properties for HK$2.55 billion. The share purchases took place from June 5 last year to Wednesday at an average stock price of HK$25.20.

 

The announcement said the board of directors was confident on the long-term potential of the property investment and development industry in Hong Kong and on the mainland and that it was the right time to buy shares in Hang Lung Properties, which has assets in both markets.

 

Hang Lung Group held 52.87 per cent of the shares of Hang Lung Properties as of Wednesday.

[drbubb]

RENTAL RETURNS - HLP / Last Five Years

"Floor area in Mainland malls was more than tripled in 5 years"

But the value of the average SF barely increased for HLP (+3.5% over 5 yrs.)

Essentially, HLP was adding "cheaper" ML mall space, and maintained ave. rents.

========= : -2010* : -2011* : -2012- : -2013- : -2014- :+%1yr : +%5yrs :
ML Leasing: $45.8B : $56.0B: $76.4B : $90.4B : $96.3B :
+ Rentals--- : $1,931 : $2,339 : $3,526 : $3,984 : $4,354 : +9.23% : +126 %
+ Gr. Yield- :  4.22 % :  4.18 % :  4.62 % :  4.41 % : 4.52% :
+ FloorArea .619m2: .576m2: 1.18m2: 1.56m2: 1.91m2: +22.4% : +209 %
+ occup-cy. : : : 98% :  : : 98% : : : 97% :  : : 93% :  : : 79% : :  : Dropped w/new mall
+ OccuArea: .607m2: .564m2: 1.14m2 : 1.45m2: 1.51m2:

HK Leasing: $50.9B : $53.6B : $55.3B : $57.0B : $58.9B :
+ Rentals-- : $2,615 : $2,822 : $3,185 : $3,323 : $3,438 : +3.46% : +31.5%
+ FloorArea: .770m2: .770m2: .766m2: .740m2: .740m2:

Ttl. Leasing : $96.7B : $109.B: $131.B : $147.B : $155.B :
Props-4Sale: $5.89b : $5.99b : $6.14b : $5.72b : $4.07b :
Debt O/S--- : $10.8b : $20.9b : $37.6b : $45.0b : $40.1b :
Cash held-- : $11.9b : $28.3b : $40.2b : $39.7b : $40.3b :

Shd.Equity- : $53.0b : $59.0b : $65.2b : $70.6b : $76.0b :
+ Rentals-- : $4,546 : $5,161 : $6,711 : $7,216 : $7,794 :

Comp.Leas: $88.6B : $94.0B : $106.B : $116.B: $128.B :
+ Gr. Yield : 5.13 % : 5.49 % : 6.33 % : 6.22 % : 6.09% :
+ FloorArea 1.39m2: 1.35m2: 1.95m2: 2.30m2: 2.65m2: +15.2% : +90.6%
+ occup-cy. : :: 96% : :: 96% :: : :: 94% :: : : 93% :: : 83% ::
+ OccuArea: 1.33m2: 1.29m2: 1.84m2: 2.14m2: 2.20m2:

Rent/SqM/yr.: $3,418 : $4,000 : $3,647 : $3,371 : $3,543 : Rent,Av.: + 3.66%
Rent/SqM/mo $
Other Revs. : $8,034 : $0,553 : $1,275 : $2,518 : $9,812 :
TtlRevenues: $12,580: $5,714 : $7,986 : $9,734 : 17,606 :
========= : -2010* : -2011* : -2012- : -2013- : -2014- :

*year ended june 30th / m2= million sq. meters
====

> 10 Year Summary : http://www.hanglung.com/HLGAnnualReport2014/pdf/HLG_Ten_Year_Financial_Summary_E.pdf
> Historical A/R's --- : http://www.hanglung.com/en/investor-relations/financial-information/financial-reports.aspx

All Data ... update : HLG /HK-10 : HLP /HK-101

[drbubb]

RESULTS : First Half of 2015

> http://www.hanglung.com/en/media-center/press-releases/2015/2015-07-30/b62d0e08-8b5a-4566-8236-54a854818596.aspx

The core property leasing business across Hong Kong and on the Mainland continued to report steady growth in both rental turnover and operating profit against the backdrop of a challenging business environment. Rental turnover of Hang Lung Properties and Hang Lung Group rose by 9% and 8% to HK$3,862 million and HK$4,148 million, respectively, while rental operating profit was up 3% year-on-year for both companies.

Commenting on the performance, Mr. Ronnie C. Chan, Chairman of Hang Lung Group and Hang Lung Properties, said, “In the midst of persistent headwinds in retail sales in Hong Kong and on the Mainland, we continued to achieve a steady growth in our core business thanks to steadfast management efforts. The decisions we made at certain times, particularly amid tough macro conditions, in optimizing our tenant mix as well as enhancing our assets will enable Hang Lung to thrive in the future. These initiatives for our Hong Kong and mainland China investment properties will further boost our competiveness and revenue.”

Anti-opulence measures continued to affect retail sales of luxury goods in mainland China. Despite this, rental turnover of our Mainland leasing portfolio for Hang Lung Properties and Hang Lung Group grew 10% and 8% to HK$2,118 million and HK$2,332million respectively in the first half of 2015, while operating profit was maintained at a similar level to last year.

Mr. Chan added, “We will see the grand opening of Olympia 66 in Dalian in the fourth quarter of this year.

It will be our eighth operating project on the mainland and will join the other landmark projects of the Group in the northeast in creating exciting synergies, augmenting our array of world-class developments in the region and enabling us to fully capture market opportunities.”

In Hong Kong, our diversified investment properties portfolio was resilient in the face of a sluggish economy. All business segments recorded advancement in terms of turnover and operating profit. A series of asset enhancement initiatives which commenced in 2012 at a number of prime locations have started to bear fruit.

[drbubb]

Analyst Ratiings : WSJ
Rating--- : 3m: 1m: now
Buy------ : 07 : 12 : 11 :
Overw'ght : 02 : 01 : 01 :
Hold ---- : 02 : 04 : 03 :
SELL ---- : 01 : 01 : 01 :
Undr'wght : 00 : 00 : 00 :
Total---- : 12 : 18 : 16 :
Pct. BUY- : 58% 67% 69%

Stock Price Target 0101--------------- Exp'd Return :

0101 : Current: $17.80 (+48.9%) : Median $26.50 / Low $19.90 - High $30.16 : Average $26.27

0010 :

Coverage (18 analysts): http://www.hanglung.com/en/investor-relations/analyst-coverage.aspx

REPORTS:

HL's Ambitious Wealth-building endeavour - Daiwa Capital Markets

EXCERPT:

Thoughts on HLP’s ambitious wealth-building endeavour About 10 years ago, HLP embarked on an ambitious wealth-building venture in the property space, entailing utilising the over HKD20bn in profit it stands to realise from Hong Kong’s residential property sector to fund a series of ambitious investments in China in an attempt to transform itself into a leading player in the commercial property sector in Greater China. That this is a special endeavour deserving investors’ attention is not in doubt, but how this ambition has been priced into HLP shares has changed in recent years. That is to say, from 2005-11, HLP traded like a rising star in global property, but since then, its valuation has been notably derated. Although the company’s gross rentals and BVPS rose at decent CAGRs of 12% and 6%, respectively, from 2011-14, its current share price of HKD24.15 represents a 40% drop from its peak of HKD40.30 in 2010. In this report, we spell out our thoughts on the major issues relating to the sector and HLP itself...

OTHERS:

Bocom Group : 31 July 2015

[drbubb]

It looks as if HLG might touch the long term (860 week MA/ xxx days) support level at about $26.

 

HLG (HK-10) ... update : HLP/HK-101 : Both-2yrs

[drbubb]

RATIOs (HLP/HLG etc) over time:

 

Owning HLG or HLP has been a poor hedge against rising HK Property prices

.

QTR. : HK-10 : HK101 : Ratio-- : -CCLI - : hlp/CC :
e.00: $$6.95 : $$8.70 : 125.2% :
e.01: $$6.90 : $$8.05 : 116.7% : $40.28 : 19.99% :
e.02: $$6.40 : $$7.55 : 118.0% : $35.77 : 21.11% :
e.03: $$9.70 : $$9.95 : 102.6% : $37.51 : 26.53% :
e.04: $15.30 : $12.00 : 78.43% : $49.30 : 24.34% :
e.05: $16.45 : $12.10 : 73.56% : $52.51 : 23.04% :
e.06: $23.65 : $19.50 : 82.98% : $53.93 : 36.16% :
e.07: $42.60 : $35.30 : 82.86% : $67.59 : 52.23% > HLG at highest ratio vs CCLI
e.08: $23.45 : $16.84 : 71.81% : $56.78 : 29.66% :

BkV.: $00.00 : $00.00 :

==================
QTR. : HK-10 : HK101 : Ratio-- : -CCLI - : hlp /CC :
e.08: $23.45 : $16.84 : 71.81% : $56.78 : 29.66% :
e.09: $38.65 : $30.60 : 79.17% : $74.07 : 41.31% > highest ratio since GFC
e.10: $51.10 : $36.35 : 71.14% : $88.38 : 41.13% :
Q-1 : $48.15 : $34.05 : 70.72% : $96.98 : 35.11% :
Q-2 : $49.30 : $31.90 : 64.71% : 100.29 : 31.81% :
Q-3 : $39.85 : $23.40 : 58.72% : $99.80 : 23.45% :
e.11: $42.55 : $22.10 : 51.94% : $95.47 : 23.15% :
Q-1 : $50.25 : $28.45 : 56.62% : 101.17 : 28.12% :
Q-2 : $47.55 : $26.20 : 55.10% : 105.47 : 24.84% :
Q-3 : $49.15 : $26.50 : 53.92% : 110.14 : 24.06% :
e.12: $44.05 : $30.80 : 69.92% : 115.60 : 26.64% :
Q-1 : $43.60 : $29.00 : 66.51% : 123.01 : 23.58% :
Q-2 : $41.70 : $27.05 : 64.87% : 121.88 : 22.19% :
Q-3 : $41.40 : $26.40 : 63.77% : 119.83 : 22.03% :
e.13: $39.15 : $24.50 : 62.80% : 118.96 : 20.60% :
Q-1 : $39.05 : $22.30 : 57.11% : 118.82 : 18.77% :
Q-2 : $41.95 : $23.90 : 56.97% : 123.35 : 19.38% :
Q-3 : $38.45 : $22.10 : 57.48% : 127.65 : 17.31% :
e.14: $35.20 : $21.75 : 61.79% : 133.34 : 16.31% :
Q-1 : $35.35 : $21.80 : 61.67% : 142.64 : 15.28% :
Q-2 : $34.15 : $23.05 : 67.50% : 143.15 : 16.10% :
Q-3 : $26.30 : $17.36 : 66.01% : 147.61 : 11.76% : Lowest ratio vs CCLI
e.15:
BkV. : $56.86 : $29.50 : 51.88%
Last-: $26.90 : $17.70 : 65.80% : 146.76 : 12.06% > HLG at lowest ratio vs CCLI
Pr/Bk 47.31%: 60.00% : 126.8%

=====

Bigcharts Historical : xx

Centaline Index----- : http://202.72.14.52/p2/cci/SearchHistory.aspx

But buying HLP at just 12% of CCLI, may provide a valuable hedge against rising HK and Mainland

property prices

[drbubb]

Dividend Record

 

Divs, vs Yield, based on year-end stock price

.
Year-: HLG- : -EPS- : final +inter. =total : Yield / HLP- : -EPS- : final +inter. =total : Yield : +prem%
2009: $38.65: 00.0%: 0.54 + 0.165 $.705: 1.82% / $30.60: 00.0%: 0.51 + 0.15= $0.66: 2.16% : 0.24%
2010: $51.10: 00.0%: 0.57 + 0.19= $0.76: 1.49% / $36.35: 00.0%: 0.54 + 0.17= $0.71: 1.95% : 0.46%
2011: $42.55: 00.0%: 0.57 + 0.19= $0.76: 1.79% / $22.10: 00.0%: 0.54 + 0.17= $0.71: 3.21% : 1.41%
2012: $44.04: 00.0%: 0.38 + 0.19= $0.57: 1.29% / $30.80: 00.0%: 0.36 + 0.17= $0.53: 1.72% : 0.43%
2013: $39.15: 00.0%: 0.60 + 0.19= $0.79: 2.02% / $24.50: 00.0%: 0.57 + 0.17= $0.74: 3.02% : 1.00%
2014: $35.20: 00.0%: 0.61 + 0.19= $0.80: 2.27% / $21.75: 00.0%: 0.58 + 0.17= $0.75: 3.45% : 1.18%
2015: $2X.XX: 00.0%: 0.62 + 0.19= $0.81: xxxxx% / $2X.xx: 00.0%: 0.59 + 0.17= $0.76: xxxxx%

====
LAST: $27.00: 00.0%: 0.62 + 0.19= $0.81: 3.00% / $17.50 : 00.0%: 0.59 + 0.17= $0.76: 4.34% : 1.34%

====
> source: http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/analysis/company-fundamental/dividend-history?symbol=00010 : #101-HLP :

Div. Payment dates:
Last: 2015/07/30, 2015/01/26, 2014/07/31, 2014/01/23

[drbubb]

RENTAL Rates Comparison

 

Office Rents - Averages seen in the market

Global

City ------ : Per SqFt. : PerSqM: HK$(x7.8): Rmb(x6.3)
HongKong: US$1,147 : US$107. : HK$ 834. : Y 674.
Beijing---- : US$1,090 : US$102. : HK$ 792. : Y 640.
Shanghai-: US$0,722 : US$67.3 : HK$ 525. : Y 424. (Sh./B.): 66%
London--- : US$0,956 : US$89.1 :

=========

 

Beijing vs Shanghai

 

 

========= : -2010* : -2011* : -2012- : -2013- : -2014- :+%1yr : +%5yrs :
ML Leasing: $45.8B : $56.0B: $76.4B : $90.4B : $96.3B :
+ Rentals-- : $1,931 : $2,339 : $3,526 : $3,984 : $4,354 : +9.23% : +126 %
+ FloorArea .619m2: .576m2: 1.18m2: 1.56m2: 1.91m2: +22.4% : +209 %
+ occup-cy. : : : 98% : : : 98% : : : 97% : : 93% :: : 79% :: : Dropped w/new mall
+ OccuArea: .607m2: .564m2: 1.14m2 : 1.45m2: 1.51m2:
Rent/SM/yr: $3,181 : $4,147 : $3,093 : $2,748 : $2,883 : Rent,Av.: +4.91%
Rent/sm/m $265.1 : $345.6 : $257.7 : $229.0 : $240.3 :
.
HK Leasing: $50.9B : $53.6B : $55.3B : $57.0B : $58.9B :
+ Rentals-- : $2,615 : $2,822 : $3,185 : $3,323 : $3,438 : +3.46% : +31.5%
+ FloorArea: .770m2: .770m2: .766m2: .740m2: .740m2:

+ OccuArea: .723m2: .726m2: .700m2: .690m2: .690m2:
Rent/sm/m : $301.4 : $323.9 : $379.2 : $401.3 : $415.2 :
Rent/sf/m : $28.09 : $30.19 : $35.34 : $37.40 : $38.70 : compares with...
.
Ttl. Leasing : $96.7B : $109.B: $131.B : $147.B : $155.B :
+ FloorArea 1.39m2: 1.35m2: 1.95m2: 2.30m2: 2.65m2: +15.2% : +90.6%
+ occup-cy. : :: 96% : :: 96% :: : :: 94% :: : : 93% :: : 83% ::
+ OccuArea: 1.33m2: 1.29m2: 1.84m2: 2.14m2: 2.20m2:
Rent/SM/yr: $3,418 : $4,000 : $3,647 : $3,371 : $3,543 : Rent,Av.: + 3.66%
Rent/sm/m $284.8 : $333.2 : $303.9 : $280.9 : $295.3 :

 

[drbubb]

Investors Giving Up On China, Get Even More Bearish

Forbes-15 Sep 2015

Ronnie Chan, Chairman of Hang Lung Properties, a multi-billion dollar real estate developer based in Hong Kong, warned FORBES this ...

. . .

If you like risk, then boy do Chinese brokers have a product for you.

Two weeks ago, People’s Bank of China governor Zhou Xiaochuan told a gathering of Finance Ministers and central bankers at the G-20 meeting in Turkey that the current volatility in China’s mainland equity markets has worked itself out. Not quite. The Deutsche X-Trackers China A-Shares (ASHR) exchange traded fund is down nearly 7% in the last five days. And a recent poll of Barclays Capital clients shows that most fund managers are underweight China.

 

According to their survey, some 716 investor now see a weakening China as the main risk to financial markets over the next 12 months. Investors are also bearish on China’s near-term growth prospects, with close to 40% of them saying China growth is most likely to surprise to the downside over the next 12 months.

. . .

Chinese authorities have spent nearly $236 billion propping up their market since the rout began in June. Trade data from China continues to disappoint, killing momentum.

“As long as the S&P is below 2040 points, then its risk off,” says Adam Sarhan, founder and CEO of Sarhan Capital in New York, a boutique investment advisory and research firm. “If we break below that, we are going lower and that will not be good for risk assets overall.”

Despite the material correction in China-related assets, more than half still say China is too expensive. Under 10% said China equities were cheap.

Investors believe oversupply is China’s main economic problem.

. . .

Worse yet, there is growing perception that a ” financial accident” in China may occur in the next two years, with close to one half of respondents giving it at least a 25% probability, up from only one-third two quarters ago. The hard landing pundits are doing their job selling their view to the big three financial news outlets: Bloomberg, CNBC and WSJ. Congratulations, you’ve got yourselves some buyers.

. . .

Lower interest rates in the core economies, coupled with a mini-QE in China, have not helped the demand side. In China, the supply side stuck i over capacity is a strong headwind.

Ronnie Chan, Chairman of Hang Lung Properties, a multi-billion dollar real estate developer based in Hong Kong, warned FORBES this weekend, “I’m not sure Beijing knows how to solve this problem. They are struggling.”

 

[drbubb]

HLG is still targeting $26 imho

 

HLG / HK10 ... 6-mos : 12-mos : 2-yrs :

 

Recent High of $42 x 61.8% = $25.956

[drbubb]

China - Mall completions there are a huge part of the world's new shopping capacity

 

Shanghai leader in shopping malls under construction

CCTV.com

05-11-2015

(see VIDEO)

China's largest city Shanghai currently leads the world in the amount of floor space for shopping malls under construction and nine of the 10 most active shopping mall markets in the world are in China, according to a report from real estate service provider CBRE.

 

Ge Yixiang lives in Putuo District. He says he often takes his family to a shopping mall near his home on the weekend because there is something for everyone.

"We often visit the children's play center here as my child likes it. Besides, our family dines here a lot, and we also go the the cinema," Ge said.

 

The mall opened at the end of last year. And it attracts about 40,000 visitors a day. Many of them are nearby residents or office workers.

"Sometimes when I don't want to cook, I will dine in the shopping mall. There are many restaurants here. And the average price is about 100 yuan per person. I think it's acceptable," Shanghai resident Tang Hong said.

 

"There are about 200,000 office workers and another 200,000 residents in the area. So our mall increased the number of restaurants, and retailers for families and children. They now account for nearly 60 percent of the business categories," Zhuang Chuanhai with Yuanyuan Enterprise Management Co. said.

 

Over 39 million square meters of shopping malls were under construction around the world last year, and nearly 50 percent of that work was in China.

"In Shanghai, vacancy rate is around five to six percent right now. But at the same time we need be realized that there is a lot of shopping malls coming on in years ahead. They are facing a more intensified competition," Sam Xie, senior director of CBRE research, said.

Xie says in order to survive, the malls need to do more to differentiate themselves from the competition.

==

> http://english.cntv.cn/2015/05/11/VIDE1431293557515428.shtml

 

The SCMP had an article yesterday, saying that China accounted for 44% of the new mall capacity in 2014

[drbubb]

RETAIL RENTS are sliding in HK

 

A store rented by Jaeger-LeCoultre in Hong Kong’s Russell Street, once the world’s most expensive strip for retail rents, will be leased to a new tenant for more than 40 percent less as the effects of China’s economic slowdown continue to be felt in the city.

Cosmetics brand Colourmix, run by Veeko International Holdings Ltd., will rent a 1,000 square feet space on Russell Street in Causeway Bay for close to HK$1 million ($129,000) per month, 43 percent lower than what watch brand Jaeger-LeCoultre is currently paying, said Lawrence Wong, a director at property agent Sheraton Valuers Ltd., which handled the transaction.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-26/shop-rents-tumble-on-hong-kong-street-that-was-world-s-priciest

 

2 /

 

Better a Rent Cut than empty

“Landlords have to face the reality, no matter how reluctant they are,” Lawrence Wong, a director at property agent Sheraton Valuers Ltd., said in a telephone interview over the weekend. “It’s still better than leaving their property empty.”
Russell Street has lost its claim as the most expensive shopping street on the planet to New York’s Fifth Avenue, according to broker Cushman & Wakefield Inc. in November. A July research report by Jones Lang LaSalle Inc. predicted prices for space in prime locations will drop 15 percent to 20 percent in Hong Kong this year.

Retail rents were down 12 percent in Causeway Bay and 3 percent in Central at the end of June, Oriental Daily reported earlier this month, citing data from CBRE Group Inc. The broker said in a report that the decline came after rents for shops at prime locations in Hong Kong’s four shopping districts, including Tsim Sha Tsui and Mong Kok, increased by 213 percent from 2003 to 2014.

Hong Kong’s retail property market has slumped as China posts its weakest growth in a quarter century. The world’s second-largest economy will announce a growth objective of 6.5 percent to 7 percent for 2016, according to eight of 15 economists in a Bloomberg News survey conducted Sept. 17-22. All of those surveyed said they expect next year’s target will fall short of the about 7 percent set by Premier Li Keqiang for 2015 growth.
MORE:
> http://macaudailytimes.com.mo/hong-kong-rents-crash-on-shopping-strip-that-was-worlds-priciest.html

[drbubb]

Putting it into perspective - that 40%+ drop that was reported, is not the whole story

 

RETAIL RENTS are sliding in HK

Retail rents were down 12 percent in Causeway Bay and 3 percent in Central at the end of June, Oriental Daily reported earlier this month, citing data from CBRE Group Inc. The broker said in a report that the decline came after rents for shops at prime locations in Hong Kong’s four shopping districts, including Tsim Sha Tsui and Mong Kok, increased by 213 percent from 2003 to 2014.

 

========= : -2010* : -2011* : -2012- : -2013- : -2014- :+%1yr : +%5yrs :
ML Leasing: $45.8B : $56.0B: $76.4B : $90.4B : $96.3B :
. . .
Rent/SM/yr: $3,181 : $4,147 : $3,093 : $2,748 : $2,883 : Rent,Av.: +4.91%
Rent/sm/m $265.1 : $345.6 : $257.7 : $229.0 : $240.3 :
.
HK Leasing: $50.9B : $53.6B : $55.3B : $57.0B : $58.9B :
+ Rentals-- : $2,615 : $2,822 : $3,185 : $3,323 : $3,438 : +3.46% : +31.5%
+ FloorArea: .770m2: .770m2: .766m2: .740m2: .740m2:

+ OccuArea: .723m2: .726m2: .700m2: .690m2: .690m2:
Rent/sm/m : $301.4 : $323.9 : $379.2 : $401.3 : $415.2 :
Rent/sf/m : $28.09 : $30.19 : $35.34 : $37.40 : $38.70 : compares with...

 

For HL, ave. mainland rents are down, as HLG spreads out from (expensive) Beijing and Shanghai

 

And average HK Rents rose: from $28.09 to $38.70 (+ 37.8%)

 

And part of that rise is justified by the very substantial investments in improvements that HL has made in malls like Moko,

in Mongkok (which I visited last week)

[drbubb]

Both stocks hit my BUY targets today: 10d-both : x3 x4 : HSI : HK-12 :

 

HKG / HK: 10 : lo- 25.80 / hi - 26.70 : Last : $26.25 - 0.75 - 2.78%
HLP / HK:101 : lo- 17.00 / hi - 17.34 : Last : $17.06 - 0.50 - 2.85%
Ratio hlg/hlp : r- 65.9% / ------------ : ratio: 65.0 %
.

And I did some buying.

I Will get 25-50% of my initial target amount of shares today

 

CALCULATION : Relative Value (Updated: 9/29- on Low prices ):

Symbol---------- : HK-10 : HK101 :
Last Price----- : $25.80 : $17.00 :
Dividend, est.-- : $ 0.81 : $ 0.76 : - see post #14
Yield- %, est. -- : 3.14 % : 4.47 % :**
Book Value/sh.: $55.90 : $29.50 :
Discount Book: -53.8% : -42.4% :
Shares O/S---- : 1.36bn : 4.49bn*:
Market Cap----: $35.09b: $76.33b:
HLG, 52.9%--- : $40.38b
Discount-------- : $5.29 bn
Debt difference: $4.77 bn
Net difference +$0.52 bn
/ 2.2mn sf----- :-$0,236 psf - Prime Shanghai location
!!! LESS THAN FREE !!!
===

 

*Shares O/S : 4.497 mn at Sept. 7, 2015 (after exer. of sh. options)

**Next Dividend : Dividend History

announced: 2016/01/28 2015/12 Final D:HKD 0.5800 Cash

ex date: 2016/05/03 / To Pay : 2016/05/18

[drbubb]

Dividend Cashflows - from HLG's point of view:

 

 

Symbol---------- : HK-10 : HK101 :
Last Price----- : $25.80 : $17.00 :
Dividend, est.-- : $ 0.81 : $ 0.76 : - see post #14
Yield- %, est. -- : 3.14 % : 4.47 % :

. . .
Shares O/S---- : 1.36bn : 4.49bn :
Divs Paid-------: $1.102b: $3.412b:
HLG, 52.9%--- : $1.805b:
Cash Inflow-- : $0.703b:

. . .
This means HLG receives HK$700mn more on its holdings in HLP,
than it pays out to its own HLG shareholders !

This amount hould easily cover costs at the HL Group level, I suppose.
And so there is room to go on increasing the HLG dividend,
even if the HLP dividend growth stalls... or to buyback stock,

improving the cash inflows even further

[drbubb]

*<Research Report>UBS Maintains HANG LUNG PPT(00101.HK) at Buy with Target Cut to $24.07

2015/09/18 09:44

 

$17 > $24 : + 41%

 

<Research Report>JPM Maintains HANG LUNG PPT(00101.HK) at Overweight with Target Cut to $27

2015/07/31 12:22

<Post-Result>HANG LUNG PPT (00101.HK)'s Latest Ratings &TPs (Table)

2015/07/31 11:01

<Research Report>Citi Maintains HANG LUNG PPT at Sell with Target Cut to $19.9

2015/07/31 10:32

 

UBS Latest Ratings & Tips for HK Real Estate Developers (Table) Back 2015/09/18 11:29

UBS, in a report, listed the latest investment ratings and target prices for Hong Kong real estate developers:

Company Name (Stock Code)/ Investment Rating/ Target Price (HK$)

 

Developers
CK PROPERTY (01113.HK) -2.200 (-3.880%) Short selling $44.45M; Ratio 15.205% / Buy/ 81.78->75.2
HENDERSON LAND (00012.HK) -1.500 (-3.175%) Short selling $38.51M; Ratio 38.902% / Neutral-> Sell/ 54.6->45.39
KERRY PPT (00683.HK) -0.700 (-3.196%) Short selling $317.55K; Ratio 1.529% / Neutral-> Sell/ 31.3->20.59
NEW WORLD DEV (00017.HK) -0.380 (-4.853%) Short selling $16.14M; Ratio 12.608% / Buy->Neutral/ 11.65->7.59
SINO LAND (00083.HK) -0.300 (-2.542%) Short selling $3.90M; Ratio 15.234% / Buy/ 14.57->13.12
SHK PPT (00016.HK) -4.200 (-4.098%) Short selling $115.63M; Ratio 25.292% / Buy/ 139.81->120.53

Landlords
HANG LUNG PPT (00101.HK) -0.540 (-3.075%) Short selling $12.27M; Ratio 23.670% / Buy/ 29.94->24.07
HYSAN DEV (00014.HK) +0.150 (+0.473%) Short selling $3.57M; Ratio 23.752% / Neutral/ 36.65->34.34
SWIREPROPERTIES (01972.HK) -0.850 (-3.829%) Short selling $2.43M; Ratio 10.482% / Buy/ 30.86->27.86
WHARF HOLDINGS (00004.HK) -1.100 (-2.506%) Short selling $70.90M; Ratio 41.729% / Neutral->Sell/ 47->40.4

[drbubb]

US Dollar quote / for trading on the OTC market

 

Does the symbol make you "HLPPY" / Happy? (seems that each Unit is 5 shares)

 

HNLGY (otc) is the US symbol for Hang Lung Group : allData : 3yrs : 6mos / 10days

 

Dividend Quality : HNLGY (very high) and HLPPY

HNLGY-US's dividend has a strong cushion from the ending cash balance.Thus, the level of deterioration in operating performance would have to be quite severe suggesting that the current dividend quality is relatively robust.The ending cash balance, with a dividend coverage of 37.20x, provides a substantial cushion in case of a significant reduction of cash flows in the future.

 

Tang. BV: $19.07 - June 2015

PEG Ratio : 6.65 - PE(NRI) Ratio / EBITDA 5-Y Growth

More: http://www.gurufocus.com/term/total_buyback_3y/OTCPK:HLPPY/Buyback%2BRatio/Hang%2BLung%2BProperties%2BLtd

 

HLPPY-otcpk / Hang Lung Properties Ltd ... update : 3yr : 6mo / Last : $11.19 - 0.26 / $11.19 x 7.75 : $86.72 / $17 = 5.10

[drbubb]

Talk of HLG from AX forum

 

" I am sure you are aware that it's not totally unknown of for some blocks in developments to be moth-balled until prices improve... "

Haha, Sure!
Like where I used to live: the Long Beach.
But that's Hang Lung, and it is pretty rare.
In fact, if developers get they idea that prices are headed lower, they may cut prices in the rush to sell - even Hang Lung might rush to sell the remaining properties they have at TLB.

I think that one reason that have been so slow to sell at TLB is that they thought the property was a gem, with a great location, and was bound to rise in value. That's what I heard from someone who was/is an assistant to the chairman, Ronny Chan.

They did this with other properties too, but were particularly slow at TLB.

I am reinvesting at least part of the money received in my sale of my unit at TLB in HLG stock. I get a slightly higher net yield, no 15% tax, and much better liquidity. I also think that HLG has the potential to raise dividends, even if rents in HK drop somewhat - they are VERY cash rich - they have something like 20X dividends covered by cash

 

- OTP