ARIS (ex.GCM) 200k > 350k+ oz/yr Gold miner

[webmaster]

ARIS (C$6.52 +0.21) / UGL: $88.16 +2.2%, (AU: 2,513) = 7.40%

COMMENTS

Post by tobinator01 on Aug 22, 2024 5:44pm

Gold Down $30 and Aris hits a new 42 month high.

Aris was remarkably strong for day considering Gold was down over $30.  Combined volume (TSX +NYSE) was close to 1 million shares.  All is needed is some strength in Gold and Aris should surge above $6.50.  The reason is shorts will have buy stops just above the share price now and they don't want to get further squeezed by buying coming in from posting multi-year highs.

We'll probably not get that tomorrow as the Fed Chairman speaks but next week looks most promising.

==

Comment by tobinator01on Aug 13, 2024 5:52pm

164 Views   /  Post# 36177475

RE:New Press Release - ARIS MINING REPORTS H1 2024 NET EARNINGS OF $5.0M, ADJUSTED EARNINGS OF $18.1M ($0.12/SHARE) AND EBITDA OF $53.2M WHILE SEGOVIA EXPANSION AND CONSTRUCTION OF MARMATO LOWER MINE REMAIN ON TRACK

Not a bad report.  They are reaffirming guidance on the low end of guidance.  This means the average of the two remaining quarters will be 60,000 ounces.  That's another $25 million in revenue for each quarter.  The cash balance dropped to $120 million, which is expected when you're doing a cash intensive development on a mine.  They did say Q3 will have a combined cash injection of $60 million.  One from Wheaton and the other from VAT receivables.

I just don't see this is what short sellers were looking for in the report.  Unless Gold goes down tomorrow, I don't see much short term downside.  More than likely as we approach the year end, I'm expecting more stock strength as the 100,000 ounce ($250 million revenue) increase in ther annual production begins to be priced into the stock.

 

Comment by canuckman1on Jul 13, 2024 12:36am

248 Views /  Post# 36131366

RE:Q2 Production Guesses

Hi Tobinator.  I enjoy your posts very much so keep them coming!

I listened to a recent Don Durrett podcast on some of the mid tier gold producers and he stated that Aris is so mis-priced.  The market has yet to price in the near term increase in their gold production. 

My guess on Q2 production is 56,500 gold ounces.

Canuckman

[webmaster]

Aris.to: 0.64 / $6.34 = 10.09%

A-wtA: 0.52 / $5.94 = 8.75%

====

======  Aris.t:  wt.A  :  Ratio  : -5.50:  In.V: TmV:  TV/X : wtA/X: x2wts, Extra?
ye2022: $3.35: 0.265 :  7.91%:  0.000: .000: .265 : 60.9%: 4.82%
ye2023: $4.37: 0.250 :  5.72%: 0.000: .000: .250 : 79.5%:  4.55%
mar.24 : $4.86: 0.340 :  7.00%: 0.000: .000: .340:  88.4%:  6.18%
apr. 24: $5.58: 0.420 :  7.53%: 0.080: .040:  .380: 101.5%:  7.64%  15.3%
may24 : $6.19:  0.590 :  9.53%: 0.690: .345:  .245: 112.5%:  9.53%
jun.’24 : $5.17:  0.370 :   7.16%:  0.000: .000:  .370:  94.0%:  6.73%
july’24 : $6.16:  0.520 : 8.44%: 0.660: .330:   .190:  112.0%:  9.45% 18.9%  6.9%

High24 $6.55: 0.730 :  11.14%:  1.050: .525:  .205:  119.1%:  13.27% 26.5%  7.4%
aug.24:  $6.11: 0.600 :  9.82%:  0.610: .305:  .295:   111.1%:  10.90% 21.8% 10.7%
09.11.’4  $5.94: 0.520 :  8.75%: 0.440: .220:  .300:  108.0% 9.45%  18.9%  11.9%
09.12.’4 $6.34: 0.640: 10.09%: 0.840: .420:  .220:   115.3% 16.36% 32.7% 17.4%?
  Chg.   +0.40:  0.120: +30.%

Price:     ARIS:  A-wtA:    Pct.:   Vs.X  :   In.V:  TmV:
Base:    $6.00: 0.500:  8.33%:  0.500:  .250: .250:  109.1%:  9.09%  18.2%
$5.00:   - 1.00:  0.340:  6.80%:  0.000  .340: .340:  90.9%:  6.18%   12.4%
$5.25:   - 0.75:  0.380:  7.27%:  0.000   .380: .380:  95.5%:  6.90%  13.8%
$5.50:   - 0.50:  0.400:  7.27%:  0.000  .400: .400:  100.0%  7.28%  14.6%
$5.75:    -0.25:  0.450:  7.80%:  0.250:  .125:  .325:  104.5%  8.18%   16.4%
$6.00:   ====: 0.500:  8.33%   0.500: .250: .250:  109.1%:  9.09%  18.2%  9.1%
$6.25:    +0.25  0.615:   9.84%   0.750:  .375: .240:  113.6%:  11.18%  22.4%
$6.35:    +0.35: 0.650:  10.24%  0.850: .425: .225:   115.4%  11.82%  23.6%
$6.50:    +0.50: 0.720:  11.08%:  1.000: .500: .220:   118.2%  13.09% 26.2%
$6.60:    +0.60: 0.755:  11.19% :  1.100:  .550: .205:   120.0% 13.72%  27.4%
$6.75:    +0.75: 0.800:  11.85%:  1.250: .625:  .175:   :  Guesses ...  :
$7.00:    +1.00: 0.900  12.86%  1.500: .750:  .150:   127.2%  16.36%  32.7% 
$7.50:    +1.50:  1.050:  14.00%  2.000:  1.00: .050:  136.4% 19.09%  38.2%