ARIS (ex.GCM) 200k > 350k+ oz/yr Gold miner

[drbubb]

RATIOS

ARIS.t 3yr: w/UGL: ytd: 10d C$4.90 /ugl-$73.7H= 6.6% (R: $2.69 to 4.92 )

10.27.23: C$3.53 (Range: C$2.69 to 4.92 ) w/Gold:

Barrick Gold-etc: ARIS.t: C$4.90 /$16.86= 29.1% .. GDX ($32.03): 15.3%

10.27.23: C$3.53 /$16.33= 21.6%

Globe & Mail says Aris Mining kept at "outperform".  2023-10-24

The Globe and Mail reports in its Tuesday, Oct. 24, edition that National Bank Financial Markets analysts have reaffirmed their "outperform" recommendation for Aris Mining. The Globe's David Leeder writes that the National Bank stockpickers shaved their share target by a loonie to $5.25. Analysts on average target the shares at $8.04. Ahead of third quarter earnings season in the precious metals sector, the National Bank analysts say they remain constructive on spot gold prices over the next year. They warn, however, of near-term volatility. The analysts say in a note: "For concentrate producers, provisional pricing adjustments are generally expected to be modestly net negative for 3Q23 earnings with gold, silver, copper finishing lower quarter-over-quarter while lead was higher. A number of producers have guided to a back-half-weighted production year, and thus, we expect several companies to have increased production quarter-over-quarter. Several currencies including the BRL and MXN gained strength against the [U.S. dollar] and could prove to be headwinds for cost guidance." The Globe reported on Sept. 5, 2022, that Canaccord had reaffirmed its "buy" recommendation for Aris Mining when it was worth $3.64.

Aris Mining produces 60,193 oz Au in Q3 2023

Aris Mining Corp. had third quarter 2023 gold production of 60,193 ounces, with 53,826 ounces from the Segovia operations and 6,367 ounces from the Marmato Upper mine. The Segovia operations maintained strong performance throughout September, building on the impressive record monthly production achieved in August.

In the future, Aris Mining plans to provide quarterly gold production updates preceding the release of its quarterly financial statements.

About Aris Mining Corp.

Aris Mining is a gold producer in the Americas with a growth-oriented strategy. In Colombia, Aris Mining operates several high-grade underground mines at its Segovia operations and the Marmato mine, which together produced 235,000 ounces of gold in 2022. Aris Mining is currently advancing construction of the Marmato Lower mine expansion project, which will provide access to wider porphyry mineralization below the current Upper mine. Aris Mining also operates the Soto Norte project joint venture, where environmental licensing is advancing to develop a new underground gold, silver and copper mine. In Guyana, Aris Mining is advancing the Toroparu project, a gold/copper project. Aris Mining plans to pursue acquisitions and other growth opportunities to unlock value creation from scale and diversification.

[webmaster]

ARIS.t: 3yr: Nov.2020: Ytd: Last: C$4.90     Breaking Out above C$5?  

Predicted the breakout at C$3.5...

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[webmaster]

Growth Company: "Next 1 Million Oz. Producer"?

Aris Mining Red Cloud’s Fall Mining Showcase

 

TIME TO UPDATE THIS? in Dec. 2023

Veteran mining expert, John Hathaway liked 4 Gold stocks a few months ago.  (ARIS.t was one. I bet he likes it even more now wityh the 75% jump announced yesterday.)  I also own KGC. Kinross.  

Gold Conference - Sprott - Agnico - Aris Mining - Eldorado - Kinross Gold  

[webmaster]

Breakout!  For ARMN / ARIS.t.  The New US quote may help.  Up 7-9% in a day

Was big range on day one of trading in Sep.  Finally got to a higher level, at US$2.89 + 7.3%

ARIS.t finally broke the downtrend : 

[webmaster]

The $350M Gold Producer Poised for a $300M Annual Windfall

(Note:  with 137 M sh. OS, at $2.89 ARMN has MktCap of US$ 395M)

ARIS Mining: The $350 Million Gold Producer Poised for a $300 Million Annual Windfall

 

Neil Woodyer’s leadership style is to be decisive and lead from the front.

 

Success or failure, there's no in-between, he says with a chuckle from his Bogota office.

 

Neil is CEO of ARIS Mining (TSX: ARIS, NYSE: ARMN), Colombia's leading gold producer and my biggest mining investment.

 

ARIS Mining is poised to generate around $300 million (all figures: USD unless otherwise stated) in sustainable annual EBITDA beginning in 2026, all without issuing new shares. What's astonishing is that its current market capitalization is just $350 million. This suggests that ARIS may be on the brink of a significant surge, and Neil's track record backs this belief.

 

....In 2016, just days after retiring from Endeavour Mining, Neil and Frank ventured into Latin America with Leagold, eventually merging with Equinox Gold in a C $750 million 2020 deal. However, Neil later regretted selling Leagold before seeing its full potential.

 

ARIS Mining (TSX:ARIS, NYSE:ARMN)

 

Now, Neil's focus is on ARIS Mining, a $350 million market capitalization gold producer with impressive potential. In 2023, ARIS is set to achieve over 200,000 ounces of gold production. It has already earned $90 million in EBITDA during the first three quarters.

 

Named after the Celtic word for "Again," coined by Neil’s wife Colleen, a certified goldsmith, ARIS has risen through a rapid series of strategic deals and the takeover of Gran Colombia Gold.

 

ARIS owns five substantial assets, and each one could be a company maker.

 

Segovia, a high-grade gold mine in Colombia’s Antioquia province, with 150 years of production history, is the big money-maker for ARIS, bringing in $156.1 million in trailing 12 month EBITDA (Nov ‘23 Presentation). It's the financial engine that powers the company's aggressive growth plans. There’s over 3.6 million ounces of gold resources left at Segovia, after ARIS recently doubled the measured and indicated ounces. Exploration is ongoing, and significant untapped potential remains.

 

ARIS is actively expanding its second Colombian mine, Marmato, a huge gold deposit with 6 million ounces in measured and indicated categories, plus 2.8 million ounces inferred and major exploration potential. The Marmato Lower mine is set to begin gold production in late 2025, with over a decade of reserve life and competitive mining costs. ARIS has more than enough capital on hand to finance this expansion, with $210.8 million in cash and $122 million in available project funding.

 

When combined with Segovia, these operations are set to achieve a total production exceeding 400,000 ounces per year by 2026. If targets are reached, and Neil has a track record of delivering, this could yield an impressive $300+ million in annual EBITDA at current gold prices (400Kx(1980/oz-1100/oz AISC) for many years. Just one year of these earnings is nearly ARIS’ current market capitalization.

 

Soto Norte and Other Opportunities

 

Not stopping there, ARIS holds a 20% stake in Soto Norte, one of the world’s richest undeveloped gold projects, also in Colombia. ARIS has the option to buy an additional 30% stake (for $300 million) and is the operator of a joint venture with Mubadala, UAE’s sovereign wealth fund. Mubadala acquired Soto Norte in 2015 as part of a debt settlement with Eike Batista's AUX, which paid $1.5 billion for the asset in 2011. Multiple feasibility studies have since been completed.

 

Plans are underway to move Soto Norte towards permitting. The recent approval of the Marmato Lower Mine bodes well for Soto Norte. With estimated production of 450,000 ounces a year (20-50% to ARIS) at All In Sustaining Costs below $500 per ounce, Soto Norte is a potential Tier 1 asset with an exceptional partner, seemingly forgotten by the market.

 

Neil believes Soto Norte should be largely financeable with debt, his speciality. ARIS has $373.3 million in existing debt obligations at Sep 30, 2023, with the majority ($300M) due in 2026 and paying 6.8% interest, the balance due in 2027.

 

In addition, ARIS possesses full ownership of the huge Toroparu gold-copper deposit in Guyana, previously valued at C $226 million in 2021, and the Juby exploration project in Ontario, Canada. Guyana, an English-speaking democracy with a booming resource economy thanks to a big offshore oil find, is a promising second location for its growth plans. Both Toroparu and Juby represent untapped opportunities for ARIS shareholders.

 

> MORE: https://stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard/t.aris/aris-mining-ord-shs?postid=35745602

[webmaster]

Aris Mining's Segovia at 1.32 Moz Au P+P  : x11.63 x$65/ gm = $1.0 Billion!, +75%

2023-11-27 09:29 ET - News Release

Mr. Neil Woodyer reports

ARIS MINING INCREASES SEGOVIA GOLD MINERAL RESERVES BY +75% TO 1.3 MOZ AND ANNOUNCES PLANT EXPANSION TO INCREASE PRODUCTION RATE

Aris Mining Corp. has released updated mineral reserve estimates for its Segovia operations in Colombia effective Sept. 30, 2023. This updated mineral reserve estimate follows the updated mineral resource estimate announced on November 2, 2023 (See News Release from November 2, 2023 ). Aris Mining is also increasing the capacity of the Maria Dama processing plant within the Segovia Operations from 2,000 to 3,000 tonnes per day (tpd). As we have an existing unutilized ball mill on site, the costs for the plant expansion are estimated at $11.0 million and completion is expected by early 2025.

Neil Woodyer, CEO of Aris Mining, commented "We are pleased to announce a 75% increase to the high-grade mineral reserves at the Segovia Operations to 1.3 million ounces of gold at 11.63 grams per tonne. Based on our current operating profile, the updated estimate extends the reserve-only mine life to nearly seven years. Like other operations with extensive vein systems within a large mining title, we expect to continue to extend mine life through ongoing exploration programs.

Based on the increased mineral resource and reserve estimates, we are implementing a small-scope project to increase the processing capacity by 50% to 3,000 tpd at the Maria Dama plant by utilizing a previously purchased ball mill that is already on-site. This creates the potential to gradually increase annual gold production from 200,000 to 300,000 ounces, as we fill the extra capacity by increasing our mining rates. A portion of this extra capacity will be allocated to our artisanal and small-scale mining partners, offering processing solutions to them, while mitigating the environmental impacts of informal mining in Segovia."

...

> More:  https://www.stockwatch.com/News/Item/Z-C!ARIS-3484485/C/ARIS

[webmaster]

BITCOIN vs. ARIS Mining - this is Weird. haha.  Back to (almost) the same place

... AND... the Ratio chart suggests BTC moved up too fast, & may need a correction

Starts 1.1.2018: BTC: 14.85k /Aris.t: C$2.05 =r7.24K.  Last: $38.5k / C$4.23 +0.28, +7.1%= r9.10k

Ratio: BTC-to ARIS.t = $37.07k / C$4.23 = r-8.81K x

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[webmaster]

ARMN / US$3.21  (Range: $2.054 -3.667 ) x 1.355= C$4.35 (C$ 2.77 - 4.92)

ARMN - since 2021: US$3.21 ...

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CANACCORD BUY RATING, Target: C$8.00 (1.35= US$ ?)

We reiterate our BUY rating on Aris Mining and increase our target price to C$8.00 (from C$7.50) following the company's Q3/23 results and Segovia reserve update announced this morning. Reserves at Segovia have increased 75% to 1.3Moz grading 11.63 g/t following a 114% increase in M&I announced in early November (see our note). The company is also moving ahead with plans to expand the Segovia mill to 3,000tpd from 2,000tpd currently, which it expects will increase production from Segovia to ~300koz from ~200koz currently and should boost total production to ~500koz once the Marmato expansion is complete in H2/25. Beyond Segovia and Marmato, the Soto Norte project (Aris has a 20% interest with option to go to 50%) provides significant further growth potential, in our view. The company is trading at 0.15x NAV vs. junior producer average of 0.42x. Aris remains one of our top picks among junior producers.

Reserve update at Segovia and plant expansion

Aris announced a 75% increase in reserves at its Segovia deposit in Colombia. In addition, Aris plans to expand the existing Maria Dama plant from its current 2kpd processing capacity to 3ktpd given the increased reserve and resource base. The reserve update followed Aris' announcement earlier this month that it had increased M&I resources at the property by 114% to 3.6Moz at 14.38 g/t on the back of its 2023 drill program as well as a review of its geological modeling methods by a third party, for more details on the resource update see our note. We note that Segovia has had a

solid track record of reserve replacement. Segovia represents ~32% of our operating NAV for the company. The resource expansion comes in the middle of a 2023 drill program, drilling over 83km YTD with $10.5 million of a $17 million budget utilized to date. The company expects to drill another ~20km before the end of the year for a total of 105km. Recall that Aris originally planned to drill 84.5km at the property in 2023.

Q3/23 summary

Aris previously reported Q3/23 production of 60koz, EBITDA slightly lower than our forecast on 2% lower sales...

[webmaster]

ARIS.t / Aris Mining ... from 2020: w/UGL: 

w/UGL: 

28M oz Gold in Colombia, Guyana, and Canada | Aris Mining Interview

 

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'An excellent time to build or buy something' - Frank Giustra

 

 

[webmaster]

Ratio: ARMN ($3.18, C$4.27)  to UGL ($61.58) = 5.16%; $61.5 x7.2%= $4.43 x1.35= C$6.00

[webmaster]

ARIS (C$4.46)  could experience a melt-up $6 and higher

[webmaster]

Set for another Breakout attempt? As ARIS rises above C$4 again

ARIS.to /  Aris Mining, C$4.09 +0.37, +9.95% , vol. 317k

Seems like some Overhang got removed the previous day...

RE:RE:A million shares dumped at close?

"From what I can see it looks like the SILJ ETF Fund rebalanced and dumped about a million Aris shares near the close of the day! " 

(Move in C$ price was bigger, because it got hammered prev. day on close):

 

ARMN /  Aris Mining,

3.04.24: $2.95 +0.02, +0.68% , vol. 156k /$66.07 +2.04= 4.46%

1.30.24:  $3.07 +0.11,  +3.72% , vol. 338k /$61.65  +0.19= 4.98%

 

[webmaster]

ARIS in early March, $4.08 is -6.64% from ye'2023 ($4.37)

RATIO: $4.08 +2.03% / 66.07, +3.19% = 6.08%

[webmaster]

Aris Mining earns $11.4-million (U.S.) in 2023

2024-03-06 18:32 ET - News Release

Mr. Neil Woodyer reports

ARIS MINING REPORTS 2023 RESULTS WITH GUIDANCE ACHIEVED, NET EARNINGS OF $11.4M, ADJUSTED EARNINGS OF $52.2M ($0.38/SHARE), ADJUSTED EBITDA OF $159M

Aris Mining Corp. has released its financial and operating results for the three and 12 months ended Dec. 31, 2023 (fourth quarter (Q4) 2023 and fiscal year (FY) 2023, respectively). All amounts are in U.S. dollars unless otherwise indicated.

Aris Mining chief executive officer Neil Woodyer stated: "In 2023, we restructured the operations team and introduced new operating procedures following the combination of GCM Mining and Aris Gold in September, 2022. The new team achieved consistent quarter-over-quarter increases in gold production during 2023, significantly enhancing our position in 2024 and the future. We have achieved the initial phase of our vision to create an attractive gold mining company for investors by integrating profitable operations with exploration potential and growth projects.

"During 2023, our high-grade Segovia operations produced 202,940 ounces of gold at a processed grade of 10.4 g/t, with all-in sustaining costs per ounce of $1,173, achieving production and AISC guidance. For the full year 2023, our mines generated $75.4-million in free cash flow from operations, which largely funded $84.2-million in growth and expansion investments, and we ended the year with a cash position of $195-million.

[webmaster]

ARIS.t: o: 4.18, h: 4.42, l: , cl. C$4.27 +2.64%, vol.: 473k (R: 2.77 to 4.65 )

CHART Comment:

Comment by tsoprano24on Mar 07, 2024 1:38pm

RE:fantastic value at current shareprice. Trouble is management

drunk@noon, agree. But from a chart standpoint I like what I see. Stuck to upper bolinger band which are spreading out. Should lead to days of upward momentum. Looks like multiple crossings on EMAs. Bullish. Macd has positive divergence. Saw similar setup on TNEYF, Tamerick Oil. Followed BB up for over a week. 

The company could help out with buybacks, but I realize I've mentioned that a couple times previously. So we will see how this chart setup works out. Hopefully PoG helps out.

 

Comment by pppon Mar 07, 2024 1:13pm

Every time I invested with this group I have made money. So I will throw my chips in and let these guys do what they do best.. Wheaton River made me alot of money so did Endeavor and leagold.   ...more  

ARIS.t :

 

ARIS (C$4.00) / UGL: $70.00=xx%,  Start, 1/'20: C$6.00 / $70.00= xx% 

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[webmaster]

ARIS breaking out?  At C$4.55 +0.28  Canaccord has C$23 NAV, that's 5.05x

ARIS is at 20% of Canaccord's est. NAV

 

[webmaster]

BREAKOUT! close over $4.60 soon?  Then, Next target: C$5.50

ARIS.to, All: Jul.2018: 2023w/UGL: YTD: 10d, $4.51 +0.06

ARIS.to, All: C$4.51,  882d MA; $4.60

[webmaster]

  DATE -: ARIS:-2.21:  wtB: %Aris,   wtA: %Aris 
  3.27.24: 4.86: 2.59:  2.64: 54.3% 0.340: 07.0% 
12.29.23: 4.37:  2.16:  2.14: 49.0% 0.250: 05.7% 
12.30.22: 3.35:  1.14:  1.30: 38.8% 0.265: 07.9%

ARIS: 2017: 

[webmaster]

ARIS.wtB is in its final month, before expiry.. C$2.68 / $4.90 ( -2.21= 2.69)

ARIS: $5.43 > could hot C$8 again

[webmaster]

Golden Surprise at ARIS Mining

Unheard of $11 million Segovia plant expansion could yield 100,000 ounces of additional gold production, $80+ million in annual EBITDA, from early 2025

 : TOMMY HUMPHREYS

Imagine turning $11 million into $80+ million annually for several years starting in just ~15 months.

That's the power of the Maria Dama gold plant expansion at Segovia (pictured), announced today by ARIS Mining (TSX:ARIS, NYSE:ARMN), set for completion by early 2025.

This unexpected news is one of the biggest no-brainers I’ve seen in the gold space.

This is from a conservative management team with a track record of delivering.

The Segovia plant expansion is on top of the $300+ million annual EBITDA ARIS expects from 2026 onwards. Currently, the company’s market cap is just $398 million (all figures US Dollars), and ARIS is fully funded to achieve its goals.

Last year, the Maria Dama plant increased its capacity from 1,500 to 2,000 tonnes per day (tpd) successfully. The plan will boost the plant's processing to 3,000 tpd using an idle ball mill, increasing gold recovery and reducing costs.

Shareholders will find this a pleasant surprise. I've spoken with ARIS management. They said nothing about a ball mill, bought but not used, waiting, its potential for production and recoveries untold.

The result will grow annual gold production at Segovia from 200,000 to 300,000 ounces, potentially taking ARIS's total production in Colombia beyond 500,000 ounces from 2026.

Additionally, Segovia's gold reserves have risen by 75% to 1.3 million ounces with a reserve-only mine life of 7 years at current operating levels (excluding today’s expansion). But with its 150-year history and exploration potential, Segovia’s future looks promising. The site has over 3.6 million ounces in measured and indicated resources already with drills turning.

The expansion could add $80+ million to annual EBITDA (YTD AISC of $1,139/oz: Nov ‘23 Presentation) at $2,000/oz gold, on top of the $156.1 million generated at Segovia in the past 12 months.

Even though the stock went up 13% last week, breaking out of a technical resistance level at $3.60, the expansion of the Segovia plant suggests that ARIS might be a better investment now than ever before.

 

 

Five large-scale projects including Segovia have the potential to transform ARIS into a leading mid-tier gold producer. They're building the 8.6 million ounce (M&I+Inferred) Marmato Lower Mine, where first gold is expected in late 2025 with a ~20+ year mine life. The company owns a 20% stake (with an option to buy another 30%) in Soto Norte, a potential 450,000/oz/yr producer at all in sustaining costs below $500/oz. ARIS owns a 6.6 million ounce (M&I+Inferred) gold-copper project in British Guyana and a potential multimillion ounce exploration asset in Canada as well.

Financially solid, ARIS has $210.8 million in cash, $122 million in available project funding, and debt of $373.3 million on favourable terms (majority at 6.8% due in 2026).

Today’s announcement is just one example of ARIS's levers to grow shareholder value.

To me, ARIS Mining (TSX:ARIS, NYSE:ARMN) is the top gold investment right now.    > https://stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard/t.aris/aris-mining-corp?threadid=35999282

[webmaster]

WTA - 2wts + $5.50, and the "Acceleration clause"

Comment by tobinator01on Apr 19, 2024 4:33pm

88 Views / Post# 35998857  

The terms are 2 Warrants plus C$5.50 = 1 share.  When I calculate fair value using the Black-Scholes model, I divide the value by 2 to get a number per warrant.

For example, Aris.TO closed today at C$5.38.  The A-warrants expire July 29, 2025 that is 15.3 months from now.  I could use the volatility of 50% ++ but I use a conservative value of 40%.  The risk free interest rate is 5.25% and strike price is 5.50.  The Call Value = 1.06, therefore the fair value per warrant is 0.53.

Today's value is entirely time premium as the stock is not above the strike price of 5.50.

There is an acceleration clause of the A series warrants.  If the stock trades above 5.50 for 20 consecutive days, Aris management can issue an Acceleration Notice.  Once the notice is given, the warrants exercise date is 30 days after the notice.   The A series warrants were issued in 2020 when Aris was just a pup.  I believe the Acceleration Clause was applied to the warrants as the Company had big dreams and very little capital.

I believe Aris will not issue an Accleration Notice as cash is not needed for their planned processing upgrade at Segovia ($15 million) and the underground operations at Marmato.  Quite frankly at $2400 Gold, they have tremendous cash flow right now.

[webmaster]

ARIS Mining has been a solid winner.  One of the very few Gold miners able to keep up with UGL (2x Gold) and even beat it!

ARIS.t (C$5.38) / UGL ($78.13) = xx%, Gdxj ($41) .. 5.5/86= 6.4%. 2020: '22:

My largest position, though I am downsizing a bit now, at these levels.  The expiration of WtB on Friday, may clean out some of the stale longs in the wts., who don't want to exercise, paying C$2.21 per warrant B.

Last chart of WtB here maybe? wtB: w/o trendlines

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