drbubb Posted March 7, 2016 Report Share Posted March 7, 2016 OPTIONS Trading : SPY Puts versus SSO Puts, DUST etc"This uptrend needs to clear that SPX 1998-2000 range before it can attempt to make it to the next pivot at 2019..."- Tony C. Latest: SPX-2001.4 : Chart (in edit): High: 2009.13 Low: 1994.01 / Close: 1999.99 // VIX: 16.86% // TonyC 2-Days: SOXXvsSPX / Other : SOXXvsIWM : iwmVspy : GDX-vs-UGLD 10 -d's: SOXX : SPX : SPY : IvsS : IWM : UKX : VIX : DXY / GLD vGBS : ugld : GDX : nugt : dust : SSO - 2x etf on SPY ... 6mos : Latest: SPX Close: 1999.99 / SPY: 200.43 / SSO: $60.19 (H: $60.79 / L: $59.43) SSO ($60.19) Jun.$67p = ($7.40- $8.55): $7.98 /$67 = 11.91% : IV: $6.81, 85%, 10.2% / TV: $1.17, 15%, 1.74% SPY (200.43) Jun.210p = (13.74-14.04): $13.89/210 = 6.61% : IV: $9.57, 69%, 4.56% / TV: $4.32, 31%, 2.06%Compare:SSO$60.18- Jun$67p : $7.98 x 14 = $11,172 : 11.9% : tv$1.17, 15%, 1.74% > hi: $16 + 101%SPY.200.43- Jun210p : $13.89 x 8 = $11,112 : 6.61% : tv$4.32, 31%, 2.06% > hi: $29 + 109% . Date-- : - VIX-- / -SPY-- : Bid - Offer : Jun210p: # $Value : JE200p D200p/ -SSO- : Bid - Offer : Jun$67p # : $Value /Sso-X03/04 : 16.86% / 200.43: 13.74-14.04 : 13.89 x 8 = $11,112 : $8.30, 14.10 / $60.19 : $7.40-$8.55 : $7.98 x 14= $11,172 / $06003/07 : 17.35% / 200.59: 13.41-13.67 : 13.54 x 8 = $10,832 : $8.35, 14.00 / $60.30 : $7.50-$8.85 : $8.18 x 14= $11,445 / $61303/08 : 18.67% / 198.40: 14,85-15.14 : 15.00 x 8 = $12,000 : $9.00, 15.00 / $58.99 : $7.50-$9.65 : $8.58 x 14= $12,012 / $01203/09 : 18.34% / 199.38: 14.16-14.42 : 14.29 x 8 = $11,432 : $8.86, 14.73 / $59.59 : $8.25-$8.90 : $8.58 x 14= $12,012 / $58003/10 : 18.05% / 199.54: 14.18-14.46 : 14.32 x 8 = $11,456 : $8.75, 14.65 / $59.65 : $7.50-$9.50 : $8.50 x 14= $11,900 / $444 03/14 : 16.92% / 202.50: 11.76-11.99 : 11.88 x 8 = $09,500 : $7.03, 13.01 / $61.42 : $6.55-$6.90 : $6.73 x 14= $09,415 / -$ 85 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Van Posted March 7, 2016 Report Share Posted March 7, 2016 Are most leveraged ETFs made up of options? I must admit that I generally avoid options like the plague, but I have been dabbling in the x2 and x3 leveraged ETFs that are available, especially as many of them are available to spreadbet at very tight spreads. Something like DUST is a sensible hedge if you are looking to protect some of your PM long positions, and unlike options it won't expire. It's down >80% since the miners exploded, and cannot go lower than zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted March 9, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 9, 2016 Using ETF's, and options on ETFS (for hedging stocks, Gold, and Gold shares) Are most leveraged ETFs made up of options? I must admit that I generally avoid options like the plague, but I have been dabbling in the x2 and x3 leveraged ETFs that are available, especially as many of them are available to spreadbet at very tight spreads. Something like DUST is a sensible hedge if you are looking to protect some of your PM long positions, and unlike options it won't expire. It's down >80% since the miners exploded, and cannot go lower than zero. "made up of options"? Not sure what you mean, but I reckon they hold an underlying portfolio of Futures, rather than options. Thus SSO (which is 2X SPY/SPX) will be invested in S&P 500 Futures. with 2X gearing. Thus, at SSO price of $59.00 today: 1,000 shares of SSO would be worth : $59,000, and that would be: SPX Futures with face value---------- : $118,000 / 1,998.00 x $XXX : XX futures contracts With this 2X gearing, any move in the SPY is magnified by 2X, and so we saw yesterday: ==== SPX : 1979.3 : - 22.5 : - 1.12%SPY : 198.40 : - 2.19 : - 1.09% (yield 2.44%)SSO : $58.99 : - 1.38 : - 2.29% (yield 1.31%) ====The change in SSO was 2.10 times as big as the move in SPY, and 2.04 times the move in SPX Note that as SPY rises, the value of SSO will rise twice as fast, day-by-day.In effect, the profits made will get reinvested too (automatically) The danger is in the downside, where a big move will shrink SSO faster "Something like DUST is a sensible hedge" DUST - 3x Bear etf on Gold shares ... All : 3-yrs : 2-yrs : 12-mos : 6-mos / 10d ====GLD : 120.58 : - 0.56 : - 0.46%ugld : $12.11 : - 0.18 : - 1.46% (3x GLD) - similar moves to GDX??GDX : $19.42 : - 0.98 : - 4.80%nugt : $57.47 : - 9.40 : - 14.06% (3x Gold shares, Bull)dust : $ 3.97 : +0.48 : + 13.75% (3x Gold shares, Bear)==== Actually, I bought some calls on DUST just two days ago*, to hedge some of my mining stocks. I am expecting to make about 3x the move downwards in GDX / Gold Mining shares. *Bought 40 June 2 calls @ $2.05 - On the day it closed at $3.87 - so not much premium on such a volatile share (up $0.48 yesterday, that's 2.7 times the TV , I paid... in 1 day !) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted March 9, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 9, 2016 DUST : "unlike options it won't expire. It's down >80% since the miners exploded, and cannot go lower than zero." It can keep falling and falling - and once down, may never recover old highs. Sure. It cannot go below zero. But a choppy market can drive it lower and lower - but there's no enduring asset backing it. Because of the high gearing and volatility, choppy price moves can erode value very quickly. (!) See what happened to both DUST (3x Bear) and NUGT (3x Bull) since they started trading DUST ... All : 3yr : 1yr : 6mos / 10d : 2d NUGT ... All : 3yr : 1yr : 6mos / 10d : 2d GDX ,,, 5yr : 3yr : 1yr : 6mos / 10d : 2d GLD ... 5yr : 3yr : 1yr : 6mos / 10d : 2d xx GDX v Ugld: 3yr : 1yr : 6mos / 10d : 2d Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted March 10, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 10, 2016 Stocks may begin the next big wave down, as soon as: + The wave-4 low for TZA (3X Bear on RUT / IWM) is in place ... update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted March 10, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 10, 2016 S&P, Dow hesitate at major resistance MarketWatch: Technically speaking, the market recovery attempt has reached major resistance, though the initial selling pressure has been muted. Consider that significant S&P 500 overhead broadly spans from 1,980 to 2,020 — matching its 20-month and 200-day moving averages — an area that remains the immediate bull-bear battleground. (Later : stocks jumped on Thursday - pre-opening) : : : SPY could Jump 2 points today - I captured these prices from Wed's close, to ponder my limit order: ===== : - VIX- : -Strike- : Jun'16 : diff. / Sept'16 : diff. / Dec.'16 : Dc-bid-offr : diff. :199.38 : 18.34 : 200put :$ 08.86 : 0.09 / $ 12.07 : 0.13 / $ 14.73 : 14.64-14.81 : 0.17 :199.38 : 18.34 : 198put : $ 08.01 : 0.10 / $ 11.28 : 0.14 / $ 13.57 : 13.50-13.64 : 0.14 : (in edit): I tossed an order in for the opening... Looks like it got hit. A Lucky trade ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted March 15, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 15, 2016 200 DAY Moving Average broken ? - may not be as important as some think 233 d - a fibonacci number, and 252 d - One year May be more important SPY - etf for the S&P 500 Index ... 2-yrs : 6-mos : 10d / SSO: 2-yrs : 6-mos / INDU: 2-yrs : 6-mos / Nasdaq : 2-yrs : 6-mos / Last Friday was a Bradley Turn date... and then 10d chart (click on link) shows there was a Gap up on friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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