drbubb Posted October 28, 2016 Report Share Posted October 28, 2016 Global Property Investments - Off the Top? BE CAREFUL ! with your property investments Base rate at 0.5%. Massive mortgages have been doshed out at 1.99%. House prices are still very high (in the areas of the country where the work is and people want to live) You can't earn money leaving it in the bank. ... If you can, buy. - B.A.B. about the UK property market. There's usually a strong LOGIC for buying, at or near the Top. Personally, I think we are past the Top, at least in London - per BDEV BDEV.L / Barratt Dev'l ... update But I am removed from the UK market... and I am also now removed from the HK market. HK-12 / Henderson Land ... update I sold out in Hong Kong over 12 months ago, and have bought 3x Houses in Philadelphia, and 3x flats in the Philippine. No debt was used in these investments. Because the sticker price of these investments is far less than what I sold in Hong Kong I am still sitting with a fair amount of cash, and some gold... Waiting. PHM / Pulte Homes ... update The waiting is not hurting me. I bought my first house in Philly in last July at about $75k. The house next door to it, which is very similar and the same size, just sold at $110k. While waiting, I am earning 11% pre-tax. The earnings on these investments are more than covering my Rents in HK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted October 28, 2016 Author Report Share Posted October 28, 2016 Why the Peaks before year (2014 & 2015) in the benchmark stocks: + US / PHM : US$24.15 (5/16/2013) - now $18.19, that's down - 24.7%+ HK / HK12 : HK$53.92 (5/26/2015) - now $45.60, that's down - 15.4%+ UK / BDEV : at 673P (9/28/2015) - now 446P, that's down - 33.8% ========== Those old peaks may have had to do Largely with Momentum in U.S. Interest rate moves. TLT / Bond prices have mostly LOST their upwards momentum / rates are falling much, and may be getting set for a rise There is a clear correlation between TLT / Treasury Bond Fund etf ... update IYR / IShares US Real Estate etf ... update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted October 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted October 29, 2016 London Real Estate Prices Are Crashing by Tyler Durden Oct 28, 2016 ... And the easiest way to confirm it, is to look at recent (and not so recent) home listings in Kensington and Chelsea, where we find something stunning: out of 130 pages of adverts, with 15 ads per page, nearly half of all properties, or 53 of the pages show price reductions. == > See Ads etc.: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-27/london-real-estate-prices-are-crashing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted October 29, 2016 Author Report Share Posted October 29, 2016 The 18-year Cycle in the USA The latest Low was 2012 (with Builders shares bottoming in 2011) ... old image-Faber The real-estate cycle in the U.S. can be summarized with the following table: Peaks in Interval Peaks in Interval Depressionsland value (yrs) Construction (yrs) interval1818 -- ----- -- 1819 --1836 18 1836 __ 1837 181854 18 1856 20 1857 201872 18 1871 15 1873 161890 18 1892 21 1893 201907 17 1909 17 1918 251925 18 1925 16 1929 111973 48 1972 47 1973 441979 6 1978 6 1980 71989 10 1986 8 1990 102006 17 2006 20 2008! 18 (2012 property Low)2024? 18 2022-24? 16-18 2026-28 ??====Real-estate values and construction have peaked one to two years before a depression, and have stayed at peak levels until the onset of the downturn. The historical evidence is consistent with the theory that speculative booms in real-estate prices and construction act as an impetus for the downturn itself. == > more charts: http://www.nowandfutures.com/real_estate.html US Property - Recovery nearing an end? If the e-wave count on this chart is accurate. the rally in General Housing stocks since the 2008-9 Low maybe be nearly over HGX / Housing General Index ... All-Data : 10-yrs : 5-yrs : 2-yrs: Last: $232.99 / PHM-10yrs / IYR-10yrs US: in America, PHM / Pulte Homes is the main bellwether ... Update : all data : 5-years : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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