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Megaworld and AGI (parent) thread


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Megaworld, AGI (parent), Eli & Geri

AGI-MEG : 8.60 / 1.79 = 4.80x, Mreit: 12.78 = 7.14x, and seven months cycle

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===

Update 2024, 1.05.24 (2.03, 2.11%) and yrE-23 (1.97):  MEG-etc:. MReit: 12.72, 13.2% /TLT: $96.29

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MEG vs SHNG: 2.02 vs 2.71. Gap: 0.69, Ratio: 134.2%/ from 3/'20: 6/'22: 10d:

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( Note: Megaworld has 81.73% ownership in ELI)

ELI vs MEG: from 2016: Add-AGI '16: July'22: w/AGI:  0.197 / 1.99 = 9.89% , Agi-12.66, at 3.3.23

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ELI-Agi-Meg'20: xx: MEG-1.98 / Agi-12.66 = 15.6% , at 3.3.23

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2016Add-AGI '16:

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===

Earnings are out for 2016 : MEG profits up 11%, parent AGI up 5%

These are reasonable results, but represent a slowdown in Growth

AGI -vs-MEG & PSEI ... 10yr: 5yr: 3yr: 6mo: fr. 4/1/19: 10d / Last: P10.80 -0.08, MEG: 4.40

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10yr: fr.Oct.2009 : 5yr: 3yr:

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On 3/31/2017 at 12:19 AM, DrBubb said:

Megaworld's stock is breaking down / (in edit, it bottomed at P3.21 in XX 2017)

PH:MEG ... update / Last: P 3.39 versus High P 5.51 (- 38.5%)

Updated... all-data / Last: P 5.28 versus Low: P 3.21 (+64.5%)

KfzjMwF.gif

I find it hard to buy the notion that Manila property is still in a Bull market, when I see charts like the one above.

These are under pressure too : ALI at P33.85 - 17.5% : SMPH at P28.40 - 9.9% :

And Century ( CPG at P0.495 - 75% ) may soon retest the old lows.near 0.40.

AGI Announced yesterday, MEG a few days earlier. ... 5-yrs : 2-yrs : 6-mos : 10-d :

MEG stock is up to P 3.74, 10% above the recent low near P 3.40 last week
AGI is trading at P 13.68, up 2% on the day, and +9.4% above last week's low near P12.50.
The market seems to like these results

PH:AGI / Alliance Global Group Inc. ... 5-yrs : 2-yrs : 6-mos : 10-d :

20yXBTM.gif

vs-SPY /

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THE GAP of AGI to the PSEI has become very big.  Time to Buy AGI as a proxy for the PSEI?

PSEI vs- AGI, MEG ... 10-yr: 5-yr / 2-yr fr.10/1/2017 : 6mo /10d - Last

E8hcGMY.gif

TIMING—: -PSEI : -AGI : MEG : Shng/ Agi/P: Meg/P: Meg/A: Shng/
YrE-2013 : 5,890 : 25.80 : 3.24 : 3.27 / 43.8%: 5.50%: 12.6% / 5.55%
YrE-2014 : 7,231 : 22.55 : 4.88 : 3.30 / 31.2%: 6.75%: 21.6% / 4.56%
YrE-2015 : 6,952 : 16.10 : 4.25 : 3.13 / 23.2% : 6.11%: 26.4% / 4.50%
YrE-2016 : 6,841 : 12.78 : 3.57 : 3.27 / 18.7% : 5.22%: 27.9% / 4.78%
YrE-2017 : 8,558 : 16.00 : 5.16 : 3.13 / 18.7% : 6.03%: 32.3% / 3.66%
YrE-2018 : 7,466 : 11.90 : 4.75 : 3.12 / 15.9% : 6.36%: 39.9% / 4.18%
01-29-18 : 9,059 : 15.50 : 5.06 : 3.24 / 17.6% : 5.59%: 32.6% / 3.57%
11-13-18 : 6,844 : 10.50 : 4.50 : 3.12 / 15.3% : 6.58%: 42.9% / 4.56%
09-15-19 : 7,997 : 12.76 : 5.18 : 3.36 / 16.0% : 6.48%: 40.6% / 4.20%
10/3 mid.: 7,522: 10.58 : 4.40 : 3.29/ 14.1%  5.85% : 41.6% / 4.37%
=======

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SUMMARY of 2016 Earnings

Alliance Global 2016 net grows 5% to P22.8B (Apr. 7, 2017, Manila Times)

Ramping up CAPEX pays off

"Since about three to four years ago, the group made a deliberate effort to significantly raise our level of spending to expand our geographic footprint both here and abroad, and ensure a more sustainable growth in future earnings," AGI President Kingston Sian.

AGI Business Unit : net income : change* : pct. : Comment

Megaworld / MEG-- : P 11.6 bn --. : 1.24 mn + 12%: strong leasing operatons
Emperador / ---------- : P   7.7 bn -- : 0.76 mn + 11%: "cost efficiencies" GPM of 36% was a record
Travellers / Resorts : P  3.4 bn -- : -0.60 mn - 15%:: FX Losses on $300mn bond, F&B income: P 3.8bn
Global Arches /McD: P  1.2 bn -- : 0.00 mn : ???
Global Est's/ GERI    : P  1.0 bn -- : 0.50 mn : + 50%: (what % owned by AGI? I assume 100% here)
====
---------- Sub-total ----- : P 24.9 bn : 1.90 mn : + 8%
---------- Other -------------- : ( 2.1 bn) (0.81 mn)
Alliance Glbl/ AGI-- : P 22.8 bn : 1.09 mn + 5% : Consol. Revenues were flat, at P 139 bn

"Despite our aggressive expansion strategy, our balance sheet remains healthy and financial gearing is still very comfortable"

 

Megaworld income rises 12% to P11,6 B

+ Rental revenues rose 15 percent to P10.01 bn

+ Introduced new concept in real estate development: "integrated lifestyle community" at Eastland Heights - 640 h. in Antipolo, Rizal mtns

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  • 3 weeks later...

(from the Stock chat thread): A decent profit after one month

TAKING PROFITS, on the "thought trade", because the "easy money" may have been made on MEG, and AGI.

On 3/22/2017 at 2:25 PM, DrBubb said:

Why is SM so expensive?

The PE Ratio seems too high now. The yield too low also

PH: Smph / SM Prime Holdings Inc. ... All-data :

SMph-log_zpsdyvaqtph.gif

 

smph P28.30 - 0.20 / PER: 34.3, yield: 0.81%

ALI  : P35.30 - 0.70 / PER: 24.9, yield: n/a
AGI  : P12.88 +0.10 / PER: 9.22, yield: 2.41%
MEG: P 3.55 - 0.03 / PER: 10.3, yield: 1.42%

VLL : P 4.77 - 0.03 / PER: 7.03, yield: 2.48%
FLI  : P 1.68 - 0.03 / PER: 8.40, yield: 2.44%

==============

As a thought experiment....

1/

SELL : 10,000 shs. SMPH : P28.30 at Php 283,000 -

and Hedge by:

BUY : 22,000 shs. AGI : P12.88 at Php 283,360 - Net: (Php 360)
or:

2/
BUY : 40,000 shs. MEG : P 3.55 at Php 142,000 ++
BUY : 84,000 shs. FLI : P 1.68 at Php 141,120 - Net: (Php 120)

 

With MEG/Megaworld up to P4.10, and is at/near expected resistance.

MEG2_zpsktvf6o96.gif

 

That's 15.5% above the level (P3.55) where I flagged it as a possible Buy.
If I was in one of the above trades as a Short Term punt, I would consider taking profits now
1/
SELL : 10,000 shs. SMPH : P28.30 at Php 283,000 / now P29.65 - P296,500 (loss:-P13,500)
and Hedge by:
BUY : 22,000 shs. AGI : P12.88 at Php 283,360 / now P14.70 - P323,400 (gain: P40,040)
= Net: (Php 360) = Overall Gain: Php 26,540-> +9.4% on the Face value, of a well-hedged trade
or:
2/
BUY : 40,000 shs. MEG : P 3.55 at Php 142,000 / now P 4.10 - P164,000 (gain: P22,000)
BUY : 84,000 shs. FLI : P 1.68 at Php 141,120 / now P 1.66 - P139,440 (loss: -P 1,680)
= Net: (Php 120) = Overall Gain: Php 6,820-> +2.4% on the Face value, of a well-hedged trade
=====
I would probably only unwind the 1st part (MEG vs. 5,000 shs SMPH) of the 2nd trade,
and continue to stay short SMPH vs long FLI

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  • 6 months later...

Megaworld stock has had a great rally from under P3.50 to 5.50

MEG ... update

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  • 1 year later...

WHY so Weak?

Big test for MEG stock ( 3 yr : 5 yr ) may be coming at P4.50 soon

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At P4.79, MEG is 26.8% off the P6.54 peak.

A 20% drop is normally considered a Bear market

MEG's parent, Alliance Global (AGI - 10yr) is also under pressure - at P 11.30

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COL is bullish on MEG:

"For his part, COL Financial Group, Inc. Senior Research Manager Richard G. Lañeda said Megaworld will continue to aggressively expand its leasable retail and office space, citing the company’s plans to complete a total of 633,000 square meters (sq.m.) of leasing space starting this year until 2021.

“We are raising our fair value estimate on MEG from P5.84 to P7.20 after raising our valuation estimate for MEG’s investment properties and landbank. We factored in recently completed office and retail buildings and also raised our EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization) margin assumption for investment properties. Meanwhile, we raised our landbank value estimate to better reflect the increase in market prices of land in the past two years,” Mr. Lañeda cited COL’s report on Megaworld dated June 26.

“Given that EBITDA margins have consistently held above our conservative long-term assumption, we are raising our EBITDA margin forecast to 88.3%,” he said.

Megaworld commits to spend P300 million over the next five years — or until 2024 — to expand its residential, office, retails, and hotel projects. This year alone, it planned to spend P65 billion for its expansion.

Broken down, around 65% or roughly 195 billion of the five-year capital expenditures will be earmarked for the development of residential projects and investment properties, while 35% will be used for land acquisitions.

Last year, the company posted a net income attributable to the parent of P15.219 billion, an increase of 15.8% from P13.707 billion in 2017.

In the first quarter of 2019, Megaworld managed to grow its attributable net profit by 16.3% to P3.836 billion.

COL’s Mr. Lañeda expects Megaworld to net P17.736 billion this year. He pegged its support and resistance levels for this week’s trading at P5.90 and P6.17, respectively.

Meanwhile, RCBC’s Mr. Lucero has a P16.8-billion core net income forecast for Megaworld this year on “broad-based growth.”

“[T]he residential business growth will be buoyed by sustained high amount of residential launches. Their residential inventory remains less than one year worth of sales. On the other hand, MEG expects to add at least 200,000 square meters of office and mall leasing space this year, which, coupled with assumed better occupancy for the space added last year, will allow for strong growth in rental income,” he said.

> MORE: jul.1, 2019: https://www.bworldonline.com/growth-prospects-boost-andrew-tan-led-property-companys-stock/

/ 2 /

Aug 25, 2019 - Megaworld is adamant that a Chinese crackdown on the country's Philippine ...
small and manageable” as license moratorium sees share price tumble ... According to Bloomberg, Megaworld shares have fallen 22% so far in ...
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OBSERVE!  The relative weakness of MEG -vs. SMPH & PSEI

MEG / Megaworld ... 10d / Last:

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On the 5 year chart, key support may be below 4.50, at 4.30-4.40

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==

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(UPDATING 2016 figures) :

MEG was about Half of Alliance Global's income in 2016, now up to 67%

Now AGI will pour 70% of its capital spending into MEG. At a time of very high property prices.
If customers balk @ high prices, then the weight of the Group's debt may be heavily felt.

AGI -vs-MEG & PSEI ... 6mo : fr. 4/1/19: 10d / Last: P10.80 -0.08, MEG: 4.40

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AGI Business Unit : Net Income - - - - - - - - - - - - -  :
Segment/Company: - 2016 - : - 2017 - : - 2018 - : Revs.: %-Rev.
Megaworld/ MEG--: P 11.6 b.: P 13.2 b.: P 15.8 b.: 57.4 b.: 27.5%:
> MEG to AGI ——   :     50.9% :     59.2% :    66.7% :
Emperador/ ———   : P   7.7 b.: P.  6.3 b.: P.  6.8 b.: 47.1 b.: 14.4%:
Travellers/ Resorts : P   3.4 b.: P   0.3 b.: P  1.4 b.: 24.7 b.:  5.7%:
Global Arches /McD: P  1.2 b.: P   1.7 b.: P  1.6 b.: 28.3 b.:  5.7%:
  -------------- Sub-total : P 23.9 b: P 21.5 b.: P 25.6 b.:
  -------------- Other ------ :  ( 1.1 b.) P   0.8 b.:   ( 1.9 b.):
Alliance Glbl/ AGI - : P 22.8 b.  P 22.3 b.: P 23.7 b.:
AGI - Revenues ------: P132.9b.: P138.8b.: P156.8b.:
Income-to-Revs. - -  :    17.3%. :    16.1%  :    15.1%  :
==
Price & MktCap ----: 12/31/17, MCp: 12/31/18, Cp.: 9/30/19, MCp:
Megaworld/ MEG--: p5.16, 166.4B : p4.75, 153.1B : p4.40, 141.9B :  32.24 B shs
Emperador/ EMP—: p7.35, 116.8B : p7.11, 113.0B : p7.11, 113.0B : 15.89 B shs
Alliance Glbl/ AGI -: 16.00, 159.2B : 11.90, 118.0B : 10.80, 107.5B :  9.95 B shs
> MEG to AGI ——   :    >>.     105.% :    >>.   130.0% :   >>.     132.% :
> EMP to AGI ——   :    >>.     73.4% :    >>.    95.8% :   >>.      105.% :
> MEG + EMP ——  :    >>.     178.% :    >>.    226.% :    >>.     238.% :
=====

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Travellers to delist from PSE as AGI income flat in H1

In its disclosure to the Exchange, the operator of Resorts World Manila will be delisted on October 15.

“The conversion from a public entity into a private company will allow the company to timely address evolving market demands and rapidly changing customer needs without compromising its business strategies to competition,” Travellers said.

It will make a tender offer for up to 1.58 billion common shares being held by the public other than the firms owned by Tan, including AGI, Megaworld Corp., First Centro Inc., Adams Properties Inc., Star Cruises Philippines Holdings B.V., Asian Travellers Ltd., Premium Travellers Ltd.

Travellers public float was only at 10.03 percent. Its share price closed on Tuesday at P5.43 apiece. Travellers has also been a drag to its parent firm’s profitability during the past quarters.

AGI had a flat income for the six months ending June to P12.5 billion, from last year’s P12.45 billion.

Consolidated revenues rose 15 percent to P82.8 billion, from P71.7-billion last year.

“We believe the Group’s strong top line performance was achieved on the back of a highly favorable domestic economy which cushioned the impact of some challenges in the global market,” Kevin Andrew L. Tan, chief executive officer of AGI, said.

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MANILA, Philippines, July 1, 2019— Alliance Global Group, Inc. (AGI), the investment holding company of tycoon Dr. Andrew L. Tan, is allocating P410-billion for capital expenditures (CAPEX) program from 2020 to 2024.

“Our five-year capital spending program signals our ongoing thrust to pursue an aggressive but organic growth strategy for our various businesses. It is our intention to continue to reinvest in these businesses to sustain our growth pace,” says Kevin L. Tan, chief executive officer, AGI.

The planned capital expense is higher when compared to P377-billion allocated in 2015-2019, inclusive of this year’s budget of P85-billion. It is even significantly bigger than P218-billion set aside in 2010-2014, at a time when AGI forayed into the international market.

The bulk, or around 73% of the Group’s CAPEX in the next five years, will be allocated for Megaworld Corporation, AGI’s property arm and the country’s largest developer of integrated urban townships. This will fund the company’s new and ongoing township development projects, planned residential launches and continued buildout of offices, lifestyle malls and hotels throughout the country. A portion of the budget will also be allocated for the company’s landbanking strategy in order to add to its current 4,700 hectares of developable land.

Travellers International Hotel Group, Inc., owner and operator of Resorts World Manila (RWM), will account for another 15% of the Group’s five-year CAPEX. The amount will fund largely the development of its next integrated resort, Westside City Resorts World, on a 30.5-hectare property within the PAGCOR Entertainment City complex in Paranaque. Travellers will commence with the construction of the casino and mall once piling works are completed.

About 5% of the Group’s CAPEX, on the other hand, will be allocated to Golden Arches Development Corporation (GADC), which holds the exclusive franchise to operate quick service restaurants (QSR) in the Philippines under the “McDonald’s” brand. The company continues to undertake a store expansion program that will add about 50-60 McDonald’s stores a year, from its current 633 stores. McDonald’s is also at the forefront of revolutionizing customer experience in the QSR segment with the rollout of NXTGEN stores which feature innovations such as the self-ordering kiosks, modernized menu boards and card payment acceptance. GADC plans to roll out more NXTGEN stores this year, from its current 62 stores throughout the country.

Emperador Inc., the world’s largest brandy company and owner of the fifth largest Scotch whisky manufacturer in the world, will account for 4% of the Group budget to fund its largely maintenance CAPEX. After its heavy investments since 2014, Emperador is now pursuing an organic growth strategy by fortifying its global distribution system for its premier whisky products under Whyte and Mackay, as well as its Spanish brandy products under Bodegas Fundador. The company is also expanding its product mix in the domestic market with the recent introduction of The Bar Premium Gin, while it maintains market leadership in the brandy segment with its flagship Emperador Brandy.

The balance of 3% will be allocated for Infracorp Development Inc. largely to fund its infrastructure projects, the 2-kilometer Fort Bonifacio-Makati Skytrain monorail project, and the rehabilitation of the Ninoy Aquino International Airport. Both are awaiting NEDA approval and are looking to start project implementation soon.

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vs-SPY /

wgcUrhE.gif

THE GAP of AGI to the PSEI has become very big.  Time to Buy AGI as a proxy for the PSEI?

PSEI vs- AGI, MEG ... 10-yr: 5-yr / 2-yr fr.10/1/2017 : 6mo /10d - Last

E8hcGMY.gif

TIMING—: -PSEI : -AGI : MEG : Shng/ Agi/P: Meg/P: Meg/A: Shng/
YrE-2013 : 5,890 : 25.80 : 3.24 : 3.27 / 43.8%: 5.50%: 12.6% / 5.55%
YrE-2014 : 7,231 : 22.55 : 4.88 : 3.30 / 31.2%: 6.75%: 21.6% / 4.56%
YrE-2015 : 6,952 : 16.10 : 4.25 : 3.13 / 23.2% : 6.11%: 26.4% / 4.50%
YrE-2016 : 6,841 : 12.78 : 3.57 : 3.27 / 18.7% : 5.22%: 27.9% / 4.78%
YrE-2017 : 8,558 : 16.00 : 5.16 : 3.13 / 18.7% : 6.03%: 32.3% / 3.66%
YrE-2018 : 7,466 : 11.90 : 4.75 : 3.12 / 15.9% : 6.36%: 39.9% / 4.18%
01-29-18 : 9,059 : 15.50 : 5.06 : 3.24 / 17.6% : 5.59%: 32.6% / 3.57%
11-13-18 : 6,844 : 10.50 : 4.50 : 3.12 / 15.3% : 6.58%: 42.9% / 4.56%
09-15-19 : 7,997 : 12.76 : 5.18 : 3.36 / 16.0% : 6.48%: 40.6% / 4.20%
10/3 mid.: 7,522: 10.58 : 4.40 : 3.29/ 14.1%  5.85% : 41.6% / 4.37%
=======

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Creative? Or Desperate?  Or a bit of both?

Megaworld-WeWork deal seen to draw more foreign firms to Philippines

Coworking firm WeWork can attract foreign companies looking to set up shop in the Philippines, says Megaworld

Megaworld-WEWORK-Uptown-Bonifacio-MArch-

MANILA, Philippines – Megaworld Corporation is expecting more multinational enterprises (MNEs) to locate in the Philippines through its partnership with United States-based WeWork.

WeWork, which designs and builds coworking spaces, recently began operations in the country.

Megaworld senior vice president Jericho Go told reporters on Wednesday, March 6, that having WeWork set up its first space in Uptown Bonifacio, Taguig City, will allow foreign companies eyeing the Philippine market to test the waters.

"The advantage of having WeWork is they are able to supply the Philippines, not just Megaworld, with a fresh set of multinational companies, some of which haven't started operations in the Philippines," he added.

Go, however, noted that they are not after the quantity, but quality of future clients looking for permanent, larger, and built-to-suit office spaces. (READ: Building a case for working in a coworking space)

"Some of those are really startups, and there are a few that are established. What you really want to get are the established brands because these are the guys that are happy to sign big spaces and long-term leases," he said.

OPPORTUNITIES. Megaworld senior vice president Jericho Go tells reporters how WeWork partnering with them will bring more foreign companies to the Philippines. Photo by Anna Mogato/Rappler

OPPORTUNITIES. Megaworld senior vice president Jericho Go tells reporters how WeWork partnering with them will bring more foreign companies to the Philippines. Photo by Anna Mogato/Rappler

"[It's] very important for a developer like Megaworld to ensure that you have high-quality MNEs, Fortune 500 companies [as clients] to get for longevity and sustainability."

The firm is eyeing to reach P20 billion in terms of rental revenue by 2020. This includes commercial and retail sales as well.

. . .

Rapid expansion

Aside from the first location in Uptown Bonifacio, WeWork head of community and member experience Eyad Zahra said they are expecting to open a second branch at the RCBC Plaza in Makati City.

COLLABORATIVE. Aside from renting out individual tables, WeWork also rents out glass cubicles for small teams. The glass walls were designed to encourage people from different companies to interact and collaborate. Photo by Anna Mogato/Rappler

COLLABORATIVE. Aside from renting out individual tables, WeWork also rents out glass cubicles for small teams. The glass walls were designed to encourage people from different companies to interact and collaborate. Photo by Anna Mogato/Rappler

"There's so much opportunity to support the businesses here in Manila. Every district will be important to us," he added.

Go also said they are looking at Eastwood, McKinley Hill, and McKinley West as other possible locations.

Despite having only begun operations last December, a WeWork spokesperson told Rappler that the 4,081-square-meter facility in Uptown Bonifacio has already reached full capacity of 806 members.

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AGI: Is increasing reliant on MEG & Property (for its earnings)

- while MEG needs more and more capital (& debt) to grow its income

AGI's DEBT Build-up looks unhealthy (+60%) ~ while income hardly grows
(SUMMARY From 2018 AR)

Category———— : - fye’16- : -fye’17- : -FYE’18-: NetInc %NetI
Cash & equiv. —-: P 45.7 b. : P 52.8 b.: P 44.8 b.:
Other fin’l assets: P 11.1 b :  P 13.9 b.: P 14.1 b.:
Total cash-like— : P 56.8 b.:  P 66.7 b.: P 58.9 b.: 23.68b.: r-2.49x
Debt, short term. : P 60.8 b.: P 42.7 b.: P 24.5 b.:
Debt, long term.. : P 77.8 b.: P 133. b.: P168.0b.:
Equity linked, L.T.: P 5.26 b.: P 5.23 b.: P  5.26b.:
Total Debt———   : P 144. b.: P 181. b.: P197.8b.: 23.68b.: r-8.35x
NET DEBT———   : P 87.1b.: P113.8b : P138.9b: ’16>’18: +59.5%:
Revenues———    : P132.9b :  P138.8b.: P156.8b: ’16>’18: +18.0%:
Net Inc., consol.  : P22.95b.:  P22.28b.: P23.68b: ’16>’18: +3.18%:
Finance expense: P  7.28 b.:  P. 6.88b.: P 6.85 b.: ’16>’18: -5.91%:
Net Inc.+Fin.Exp.: P30.23b:  P29.16b.: P30.53b: ’16>’18: +0.99%:
Net Debt / NI+FE  :   34.7% :    25.6%  :    22.0% .:

Now AGI will pour 70% of its capital spending into MEG. At a time of very high property prices.
If customers balk @ high prices, then the weight of their debt may be heavily felt.

In addition, AR-2018 says

"The tourism industry of the Philippines is soaring to new heights. AGI is set to provide in various places of the country the much-needed relaxation spaces, from our home-grown hotel brands to the world’s biggest names in luxury hotels. AGI aims to be the country’s largest hotel operator in terms of room keys targeting to reach 12,000 hotel rooms in the near-term." #travelgoalsPhilippines

> http://www.allianceglobalinc.com/CompanyDisclosures.aspx

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BUYBACK by AGI brings nice Friday rally

AGI vs.PSEI, meg, tbgi ... 10d /

zlzJ6b9.gif

Friday 10/4 Cls; change : %Chg : Compare with PSEI
PSEI : 7,704.60: +159.05 +2.11% : prev, was 7,546
AGI - : P 11.28:  +0.82 , +7.84% : from 13.9%>14.6% (/100) of PSEI
MEG : P  4.50 : + 0.13   , +2.97% : from 5.79%>5.84% (/100)
TBGI : P0.325 : + 0.01   , +3.17% :
RCI - :  P  1.83 :  - 0.05.  , - 2.66% :
ATN  : P.  1.15 : + 0.01   , +0.88% :
Shng: P.  3.18 :  - 0.01   , - 0.30% : from 4.23%>4.13% (/100)
====
Note, the big jump in AGI’s shares was due to a Buyback,
Of  at least 10 Million shares (it seems), of 23.9 M traded

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MEG is still in a downtrend -  Low at 4.30 to be retested soon?

MEG -etc ... update : holding cos/ Last; P 4.53 -0.02

vQNyhBo.gif

: holding cos/

NC4zxAj.gif

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  • 4 months later...

MEG's Bad news is OUT... stock up 0.12 to 3.52, from 3.25 (ie HALF the 6.50 peak)

P 5 Billion buyback announced

> https://www.bworldonline.com/pogo-crackdown-virus-weigh-on-megaworld-stock/

Being the largest office leasing company in the Philippines [with almost two million square meters (sq.m.) of leasable area)], investors fear that Megaworld’s earnings and occupancy figures may take a hit from the lesser influx of POGO firms and employees due to the coronavirus outbreak and current crackdown of the Philippine and Chinese government on the POGO industry…,” Mandarin Securities Corp. Research Analyst Zoren Philip A. Musngi said in an e-mail.

According to him, Megaworld’s fundamentals “are currently tilting to the bearish/negative side” because most of their businesses — which include residential, office and mall spaces — will likely be hit by the COVID-19 fears and POGO industry crackdown.

“However, one upside we see from the stock is that the impact of the POGO crackdown may be less severe than investors expect, considering that most POGO tenants pay out their rents in advance for one to two years (according to industry executives) and that most of the crackdown are on illegal Chinese workers and POGOs not paying taxes,” Mr. Musngi added.

In a phone interview, AP Securities, Inc. Senior Research Analyst Rachelle C. Cruz noted other listed firms connected to POGOs were affected, but that the price movement was “magnified” for Megaworld as “most of its projects are leasing office spaces for POGOs.”

Although Megaworld’s exposure to POGO is about four percent of its pre-tax earnings, Ms. Cruz said the potential flight of POGOs in the country could lead to lower lease rate and future selling prices of condominiums.

According to Leechiu Property Consultants, POGOs cornered the largest office stock at 738,000 sq.m. or 44% of the total office space supply in 2019. This was 67% more than the sector’s 443,000-sq.m. net take-up in 2018. The POGO industry is largely powered by Chinese employees.

Moreover, the Chinese embassy, on its Facebook page last Feb. 23 clarified earlier reports that the Ministry of Public Security of China has canceled the passports of thousands of suspected Chinese nationals working in POGOs.

. . .

Megaworld’s attributable net income stood at P12.8 billion in the nine months to September 2019, up 13.9% from the P11.24 billion in the same period in 2018.

Mandarin Securities’ Mr. Musngi expects Megaworld’s fourth-quarter net earnings to be around P4.4 billion, driven by “sustained growth” across the firm’s residential, office, and malls businesses.

The hit to profitability will likely come in succeeding quarters, considering that its competitor Ayala Land already signaled that [first-quarter 2020] earnings is weaker due to lesser foot traffic and occupancy in their malls and hotels,” he said.

AP Securities’ Ms. Cruz expects Megaworld’s net income to hit P17.4 billion for 2019.

For the week, analysts said Megaworld’s announcement on its P5-billion share buyback program last Friday would have an upside impact on its share price.

 

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RALLY on 5B Buyback

MEG - since 2010 : w/AGI / Last: P 3.58 + 0.18

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Article expected a bounce:

“We expect the price to bounce by [this week] and may reach around the P3.60-per-share level, especially after the company recently announced a P5 billion share buyback program,” said Mandarin’s Mr. Musngi.

He placed the stock’s support level at P3.30, while resistance levels “will likely be in the P3.70 and P4.00 levels.”

For AP Securities’ Ms. Cruz: “The [buyback program] will support the stock’s price [this week]. We might not see a sharp decrease compared to what was seen in the earlier part of [last] week.” — Carmina Angelica V. Olano

I expect to eventually see it trading below P3

When AGI did a buyback last year , it helped the stock for 2-3 weeks, but now AGI is back below 10.00

MEG & ALI - since 2010 / Last: 3.58 / 9.90 (- 0.10) = Ratio: 36.2%

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  • 2 years later...

PHL PROPERTY DEVELOPERS under renewed pressure

MEG, ALI, SMPH, VLL. from 2018: 5yr: 2yr: Ytd: 10d/ 2.04, 22.85, 30.10, 1.60 vs. Lows: 2.03, 22.35, 29.70, 1.60

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Sym.: 9.30.22: BkVal.: % BV: PER: Yield:
Smph: P 30.10: 11.53:   261.% 35.8: 0.32%
ALI.   : P 22.85: 15.83: 144.% 23.6:  1.19%
MEG  : P. 2.04: P6.24: 32.7% 4.53: 0.00%
Shng : P  2.58: P7.83:  33.0.% 5.75: 6.40%
ALCO: P. 0.53: P1.80:  29.4%  3.40: 2.26%
FLI.    : P. 0.76: P3.62:  21.0%  7.71:  6.12%
VLL.  : P.  1.60: P8.61:  18.6%  2.90: 1.83%
====

Nearly all of the developers are trading at a big discount to Book Values.  The exceptions, are the two with the best developed MALL businesses.  But the very recent drops in the shares of SMPH and ALI shows that these two are not immune either.

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  • 3 months later...

MEGAWORLD is Buying back shares aggressively

MEG has been lagging - but is now buying back shares almost everyday

MEG : 10d: Last: 2.14, (Range: 1.95 to 3.41 ) . PER: 4.98, Yield: 2.86%.  Bk.Val: 6.24, so 34.3%

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since 2010:

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MEG-etc: from 2018: We are seeing a bounceback in many property shares now, as L.T. rates ease somewhat since November.  As a short term trade, I have bought shares on the "cheapest" ones, relative to B.V., VLL and MEG.  As well as my ongoing purchase of REIT shares.

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Megaworld share buy-back transactions (Excerpt)
 Date of Transaction: Jan 13, 2023 Number of Shares Purchased: 596,000
Price Per Share: 2.1800 ...AFTER: 897,168,000 Cumulative Number of Shares Purchased to Date*:
 
Buy-Back Program: Php5,000,000,000.00 Total Amount of Shares Repurchased: Php2,094,929,730.00 * From the date when the share buy-back program commenced.
 
Pct. of Total Shs. Boughtback: 2.09B / OS: 31.857B = 6.56%
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  • 1 month later...

ELI / East Empire moves down, but in correlation with MEG

ELI vs MEG: from 2016: Add-AGI '16: July'22: w/AGI:  0.197 / 1.99 = 9.89% , Agi-12.66, at 3.3.23

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ELI-Agi-Meg'20:

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2016:

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Add-AGI '16:

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===

TIMING—: -PSEI : -AGI : MEG : Shng/ Agi/P: Meg/P: Meg/A: Shng/
YrE-2013 : 5,890: 25.80 : 3.24 : 3.27 / 43.8%: 5.50%: 12.6% / 5.55%
YrE-2014 : 7,231 : 22.55 : 4.88 : 3.30 / 31.2%: 6.75%: 21.6% / 4.56%
YrE-2015 : 6,952 : 16.10 : 4.25 : 3.13 / 23.2% : 6.11%: 26.4% / 4.50%
YrE-2016 : 6,841 : 12.78 : 3.57 : 3.27 / 18.7% : 5.22%: 27.9% / 4.78%
YrE-2017 : 8,558 : 16.00 : 5.16 : 3.13 / 18.7% : 6.03%: 32.3% / 3.66%
YrE-2018 : 7,466 : 11.90 : 4.75 : 3.12 / 15.9% : 6.36%: 39.9% / 4.18%
01-29-18 : 9,059 : 15.50 : 5.06 : 3.24 / 17.6% : 5.59%: 32.6% / 3.57%
11-13-18 :  6,844 : 10.50 : 4.50 : 3.12 / 15.3% : 6.58%: 42.9% / 4.56%
09-15-19 :  7,997 : 12.76 : 5.18 : 3.36 / 16.0% : 6.48%: 40.6% / 4.20%
======
YrE-2019 : 7,815 :  11.66 : 4.01 : 3.20 /
YrE-2020 : 7,140 : 10.60 : 4,08 : 2.71 /
YrE-2021 : 7,335 : 12.32 : 3.33 : 2.61 /
Bk.Value  : 0,000 :
YrE-2022 : 6,566 : 11.90 : 2.00 : 2.54 / 18.1% : 3.04%: 16.8% / 3.87%
3/3/’23. :  6,655: 12.66: 1.98 : 2.60/ 19.0%: 3.01%: 15.6%/ 3.91%YrE-2022 : 6,566 : 11.90 : 2.00 : 2.54 / 18,1% : 3.04%: 16.8% / 3.87%
3/03/’23. :  6,655: 12.66: 1.98 : 2.60/ 19.0%: 3.01%: 15.6%/  3.91%
=======

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  • 2 weeks later...

At P1.98 Close: MEG's

Yield:
3.10%
   P/E Ratio:
      4.64

Megaworld attributable income rises 0.2% to P13.5 billion

MEGAWORLD Corp. on Wednesday reported a net income of P13.46 billion for 2022, higher by 0.2% than the earlier year’s P13.43-billion profit attributable to shareholders.

Its after-tax net income rose by 6.9% to P15.37 billion from the P14.38 billion registered in 2021 as revenues across its business segments grew by double digits.

“We have exceeded our targets across all business segments last year and we remain optimistic that we can hit or even exceed our pre-pandemic numbers this year,” Kevin Andrew L. Tan, the company’s chief strategy officer, said in a press release.

Total revenues surged by 17.3% to P59.53 billion from P50.75 billion as real estate sales, rental income, hotel operations, interests, and other income sources exceeded the figures in the previous year.

However, costs and expenses grew much higher at 21.4% to P44.15 billion from P36.38 billion previously.

Among Megaworld’s business segments, real estate, especially residential sales, drove growth by expanding by 18% in 2022 to P36.8 billion.

In 2022, the township developer launched two urban projects — the 3-hectare Winford Resort Estate in Manila, and the 340-hectare Sherwood Hills in Cavite.

“Certainly, we will be launching more townships this year as we look forward to expanding our offerings to more cities across the Philippines,” Mr. Tan said.

Megaworld Premier Offices recorded an 11% increase in rental income to P12.2 billion last year from P11.1 billion in the previous year due to “growing transactions” from both traditional and business process outsourcing tenants.

Meanwhile, Megaworld Lifestyle Malls grew its revenue by 51% to P3.4 billion, mostly driven by increased consumer spending and higher foot traffic.

Revenues from Megaworld Hotels & Resorts increased by 35% to P2.6 billion in 2022 from P1.9 billion in the previous year, on the sustained performance of in-city hotels and the pickup in meetings, incentives, conferences, and exhibitions or MICE activities.

On Wednesday, Megaworld shares closed 0.99% or two centavos lower at P2.00 apiece. — Adrian H. Halili

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MEG, AGI since : 2010: 2016: 3/'20-AGI:  eli-0.197, meg-1.98 / Agi-12.66, = 15.6% , at 3.3.23

Mar'20 (interday,closing) Lows: MEG: 1.86/1.89, AGI: 5.30/5.98., ELI: 0.205/0.28

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2010:

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  • 4 weeks later...

MEG and FLI, are at/near Decade Lows... while ALI holds up : 2.07 (7.26%), 0.71 (2.49%), /28.50

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Add VLL / Vista Land: from 2016: 2018: last: 1.66 / 28.50= 5.82%

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2008:

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Sym.: Price: BkVl: PER : Yield: ’17BV: >’2021: nD/Eq.
ALI. : 28.50: 15.83 22.6: 1.00%  11.32 : +39.8%: 0.98
FLI.  : P0.71: P3.62 6.57: 6.55% P2.61 : +38.7%: 0.74
MEG  P2.07 P6.24 4.85: 2.97% P4.38: +42.5%: 0.25
ELI   : P0.19: P1.85  3.42: 0.00% P1.72:  +  7.6%: 0 debt
GERI: P0.89: P2.73 5.43: 0.00% P2.22: +23.0%: 0.14
VLL : P1.66 : P8.61  2.91: 1.78 % P6.41: +34.3%:  1.48
====
CDC : P0.75: P1.75  3.78: 2.96% P1.71 : + 2.3%:  0.03
LAND P0.80: P1.67  2.95: 3.77% P1.49 : +12.1%: 0 debt
ROCK: P1.38: P3.81 3.82: 3.89% P2.80: +36.1%:  1.06
SHNG P2.70: P7.83 4.66: 9.26% P6.40: +22.3%: 0.17
====

The DATA for me really highlight the attractions of low-debt MEG, and low-debt, high div. SHNG.

SHNG vs. MEG, etc: update: 2.70 / 2.07 = 130%, MEG may follow SHNG higher, if breakout fuels rise.

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In 2011, GERI changed its name to its present form and changed its focus towards the development of integrated tourism estates following the acquisition by Alliance Global Group of a majority stake in the company. The company was eventually consolidated under Megaworld in 2014.

===

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megaworld-positano-mactan.jpg

POSITANO: "MEGAWORLD TO BUILD ITALIAN-THEMED RESIDENTIAL PROJECT INSIDE THE MACTAN NEWTOWN"

The 17-storey Positano Mactan will be the sixth residential condominium development to rise inside the property giant's Lapu- Lapu City township with a beach Property giant Megaworld Corporation ("Megaworld") is launching its sixth residential condominium project inside the 30-hectare The Mactan Newtown in Lapu-Lapu City, Cebu. The 17-storey Positano Mactan will offer 301 'smart home' units in varying types with sizes ranging from Studio (up to 33 square meters), Executive Studio (41 square meters), One Bedroom (up to 51.5 square meters), Executive One Bedroom (up to 61 square meters), Two Bedroom (up to 78 square meters), and Three Bedroom (up to 141 square meters).

The project will also offer other unit types that will be seen for the first time at The Mactan Newtown. These include a One Bedroom Loft (up to 81.5 square meters), Two Bedroom Loft (136.5 square meters), Three Bedroom Bi-Level (up to 166 square meters), Three Bedroom Loft (189.5 square meters), and Three Bedroom Loft with Terrace (up to 264.5 square meters). All units will have their own cooktop burners, with two-bedroom and three-bedroom units having their own built-in ovens. Split-type air- conditioning units will come standard in both the living and dining areas across all units. Designed by acclaimed architectural and design firm Casas +Architects, Inc., the façade of Positano Mactan pays homage to the charming Italian resort town of Positano by mirroring an impression of the real place highlighted by earth tones, such as beige, warm white, light yellow, and terracotta red.

"This residential project is inspired by the elegance and beauty of the picturesque Italian seaside destination off the Amalfi Coast that carries the same name. We continue to see an overwhelming demand for living spaces here at The Mactan Newtown, which is why we have chosen to offer this concept to further highlight the island vibe and the exciting lifestyle that residents have come to love in this master- planned township," says Jennifer Palmares-Fong...

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Mactan Newtown BEACH MALL

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\mactan-newtown-township-cebu-city-map
> LINK: https://www.megaworldcorp.com/townships/mactan-newtown

===

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Megaworld expects P2-B sales from Positano Mactan

Megaworld’s latest swank residential condominium property is Positano Mactan at The Mactan Newtown, in Lapu-Lapu City, Cebu. | photograph courtesy of Megaworld

By Maria Romero, 5 days ago

Property developer Megaworld Corp. led by businessman Andrew Tan, launched its sixth residential condominium project in The Mactan Newtown in Lapu-Lapu City, Cebu.

The company said Thursday it expects to raise around P2-billion in sales from the new project — dubbed Positano Mactan.

“We continue to see an overwhelming demand for living spaces here at The Mactan Newtown, which is why we have chosen to offer this concept to further highlight the island vibe and the exciting lifestyle that residents have come to love in this master-planned township,” said Megaworld Visayas first vice-president for sales, Jennifer Palmares-Fong.

Completion by 2028

Scheduled for completion by 2028, the 17-story Positano Mactan, offers 301 smart home units in varying types, ranging from Studio and Executive Studio to One Bedroom, Executive One Bedroom, Two Bedroom, and Three Bedroom condominium units.

Read more:  https://tribune.net.ph/2023/03/24/megaworld-expects-p2-b-sales-from-positano-mactan/

 

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