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DrBubb's Diary - Dec. 2017 Trading - v.107

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Top of Page Charts (Odd) : Channel-GE : MP : PP : Charts : Acore : Fringe : Ag B E G H :

t24_au_en_usoz_6.gif : 24hr-euro-small.gif : t24_au_en_euoz_2.gif : AuTD1.png?id=11409261605

idx24_russell_en_2.gif : t24_ag_en_usoz_2.gif:: idx24_hui_en_2.gif : AgTD0.png?id=11409221912

3d : ag : au

China/SGE: 4,200 RMB/kg / 6.150 = $ 683 / 35.274 = $19.36 (discount of about 20-25 cents?)

Goldstock : HK-2840 : GBS.L : GLD : GDX : NUGT : tza/faz -- HKpeg : DXY : StkX : 10-d : SPX : sjw : img :

HK 3081: 2899: 1051: hs / UK: POG / ABX : Sil : IAG : dba-etc. ... lot : PB : CVN : CC2 : BTC : SLV-lv


GDX ... Cycle Low could be Dec. 2017 ... update


GBS ... update



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Shopping success vs  Shopping failure

Bank of AMAZON?

For the financial technology industry, 2017 will be defined as the year that the threat of tech giants grew stronger, artificial intelligence cemented its importance and some startups applied to become banks.

What to look for in 2018? Maybe more mergers and acquisitions, initial public offerings and deeper forays by Amazon.com Inc. and Facebook Inc. Here’s a wrap from industry experts:


In the world of payments, all eyes are on the part of the ecosystem that helps retailers process card transactions. Incumbents like First Data Corp., Vantiv Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s merchant services unit have long focused on winning business from large brick-and-mortar retailers, neglecting to spend a lot of time on the growing e-commerce sector. That’s made room for startups like Stripe Inc. and Adyen BV, which have garnered high valuations for doing just that. Now the questions are: What will be the next way that consumers make purchases and what will the incumbents do to catch up?

  • Matt Harris, Bain Capital Ventures: “SoftBank buys 20 percent of Stripe for $3 billion. PayPal continues to push itself down the path of being the leading financial services company for millennials and the mass market.”
  • Dion Lisle, Capgemini SA: “‘Alexa, buy this’ or ‘Siri, I need an Uber, pay for it with my AmEx.’ Payments are going to be activated by that voice because that’s a great security method.”


For investors in online lending, 2017 was the year of the shakeout. The companies that didn’t pay enough attention to underwriting were burned by losses, while longtime leaders like LendingClub Corp. and CAN Capital Inc. struggled with operational troubles and securing sufficient capital. Next year might not be any easier, according to experts. Banks have finally gotten their act together, and that means online lenders will increasingly have to compete against these large financial institutions.

Malls rotting away...

As Macy's, JCPenney, Sears and other major department stores close their doors, the malls that housed those stores are facing a serious crisis.

That's because when so-called anchor tenants leave a mall, it opens the door for other stores to break their leases or negotiate much cheaper rent.

Retailers often sign co-tenancy agreements in their leases with malls, allowing them to reduce their rent or get out of a lease if a big store closes.

That's because the smaller retailers next to anchor stores no longer benefit from the foot traffic that the major retailers received, according to Garrick Brown, vice president of retail research for Cushman & Wakefield.

Related: Dollar General is opening 900 new stores next year

Brown said he expects the weakest malls to enter "death spirals."

Many former anchor tenants are closing hundreds of stores as Amazon (AMZN) eats their lunch.

Sears (SHLD), which had operated nearly 3,800 stores as recently as a decade ago is now down to 1,104 stores. Macy's (M) closed 68 stores this year, and JCPenney (JCP) was set to shutter 128.

It's not just department stores that have mall owners worried.

When Starbucks (SBUX) announced that it was closing its Teavana tea line and wanted to shutter all of its stores, mall operator Simon Property Group (SPG) countered with a lawsuit. Simon cited in part the effect the store closures might have on other mall tenants.

Earlier this month, a judge upheld Simons' suit, ordering Teavana to keep 77 of its stores open

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Deep State ugliness & cover-up revealed

Ex Spy Chief Admits War With Trump 1938


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When all looks great, and prices are high, it may be time to take a closer look

Household Debt to GDP

Australia :       194%

China :             160%

South Korea : 150%



Philippines remains at the Bottom - because so many Filipinos do not even have bank accounts

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On 12/13/2017 at 8:29 AM, drbubb said:

GDX ... Cycle Low could be Dec. 2017 ... update


JUMPED yesterday:

GDX - : $22.16 +0.74 : +3.74% : 68.9 million

GDXJ : $31.58 +1.16 : +3.81% : 21.7 million

MUX- : $ 2.02  +0.17 : +9.19% : 4.82 million

JNUG: $14.21 +1.45 : +11.4% : 17.1 million

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Bitcoin Futures : where, what & how do they work

- The Cboe Bitcoin Futures Contract uses the ticker XBT and will equal one bitcoin.
- The CME Bitcoin Futures Contract will use the ticker BTC and will equal five bitcoins.
- Cash Settled in USD : Both Cboe’s and CME’s bitcoin futures contracts will be settled in U.S. dollars, allowing exposure to the bitcoin without actually having to hold any of the cryptocurrency.
- Different Settlement mechanism:

-Cboe’s contract is priced off of a single auction at 4 p.m. Eastern time (2100 GMT) on the final settlement date on the Gemini cryptocurrency exchange.

-CME’s contract will be priced off of the CME Bitcoin Reference Rate, an index that references pricing data from cryptocurrency exchanges, currently made up of Bitstamp, GDAX, itBit and Kraken.

Both contracts seem open to manipulation, and especially the CBOE with a settlement based off a single exchange .
Another point is that they are likely to settle at different prices, maybe very different prices depending on the quirks of the exchanges
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Teeka Tiwari on How "I Vastly Underestimated Bitcoin"

(most interesting parts): Institutional Demand, & coming Secure Custody

Nick: How’s that possible? You’ve been talking about the tidal wave of money coming into cryptos all year.

Teeka: It’s not going to be a tidal wave… It’s going to be the biggest ocean of money in the history of the world.

And that money hasn’t even hit the markets yet. The opportunity in cryptos is just beginning.

"That’s the biggest thing I noticed… the amount of institutional demand for cryptocurrencies that’s out there.

I vastly underestimated how badly institutions want to get into this space… vastly underestimated."

. . .

Right now there are no bitcoin “vaults” approved for institutional use.

The good news is that will change next year. A slew of new companies is rising up to meet the custody challenge.

Once custody is in place, the stage will be set for institutions to trade in the physical bitcoin market. And when that happens, billions—or even trillions—of dollars will be flowing into the space.


> see whole interview:  post #xx

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C2c - I will comment after listening.

TWO Interesting segments here: Russiagate by a true expert & Asteroids!

Coast To Coast AM - December 13, 2017 Mysterious Oumuamua & Russiagate

In the first half, Stephen F. Cohen, a Professor of Russian Studies and History Emeritus at NYU, spoke about weakening US-Russia relations, and Vladimir Putin and his role in the "Russiagate" saga.

In the latter half, ufologist Stanton Friedman talked about the mysterious "Oumuamua," a cigar-shaped asteroid that passed by Earth last month, and some have speculated may be an alien probe. The pictures depicted of the object are an artist's concept, he pointed out, so we don't know exactly what it looks like. "It's interesting because we haven't picked up something like this before," he commented. Oumuamua is moving at a very high speed, and has an unusual shape that resembles descriptions of UFO motherships in some past cases, he noted.


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The Tax-selling season may be over - for Canadian Mining shares

(I hope you bought some of these near 52 cents, as I did):

Yesterday's move : $ 0.62 + 0.06 : +10.71%


On VERY Heavy volume : 3.92 Million shares


RE:RE:RE:Nice bump in sp

are we seeing money come back into the mining sector finally ? Net short dollar bets way up, bitcoin too expensive,
Dow etc topped out, gold rally commencing . Investors seem to be positioning...read more
> stockhouse: http://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard?symbol=t.ff
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Pentagon Mysterious UFO Program...

In response to questions from The Times, Pentagon officials this month acknowledged the existence of the program, which began as part of the Defense Intelligence Agency. Officials insisted that the effort had ended after five years, in 2012.

“It was determined that there were other, higher priority issues that merited funding, and it was in the best interest of the DoD to make a change,” a Pentagon spokesman, Thomas Crosson, said in an email, referring to the Department of Defense.

But Mr. Elizondo said the only thing that had ended was the effort’s government funding, which dried up in 2012. From then on, Mr. Elizondo said in an interview, he worked with officials from the Navy and the C.I.A. He continued to work out of his Pentagon office until this past October, when he resigned to protest what he characterized as excessive secrecy and internal opposition.

“Why aren’t we spending more time and effort on this issue?” Mr. Elizondo wrote in a resignation letter to Defense Secretary Jim Mattis.

Pentagon officials say the program ended in 2012, five years after it was created, but the official who led it said that only the government funding had ended then. Credit Charles Dharapak/Associated Press

Mr. Elizondo said that the effort continued and that he had a successor, whom he declined to name.

U.F.O.s have been repeatedly investigated over the decades in the United States, including by the American military. In 1947, the Air Force began a series of studies that investigated more than 12,000 claimed U.F.O. sightings before it was officially ended in 1969. The project, which included a study code-named Project Blue Book, started in 1952, concluded that most sightings involved stars, clouds, conventional aircraft or spy planes, although 701 remained unexplained.

. . .

“Internationally, we are the most backward country in the world on this issue,” Mr. Bigelow said in an interview. “Our scientists are scared of being ostracized, and our media is scared of the stigma. China and Russia are much more open and work on this with huge organizations within their countries. Smaller countries like Belgium, France, England and South American countries like Chile are more open, too. They are proactive and willing to discuss this topic, rather than being held back by a juvenile taboo.”

By 2009, Mr. Reid decided that the program had made such extraordinary discoveries that he argued for heightened security to protect it. “Much progress has been made with the identification of several highly sensitive, unconventional aerospace-related findings,” Mr. Reid said in a letter to William Lynn III, a deputy defense secretary at the time, requesting that it be designated a “restricted special access program” limited to a few listed officials.

A 2009 Pentagon briefing summary of the program prepared by its director at the time asserted that “what was considered science fiction is now science fact,” and that the United States was incapable of defending itself against some of the technologies discovered. Mr. Reid’s request for the special designation was denied.

Mr. Elizondo, in his resignation letter of Oct. 4, said there was a need for more serious attention to “the many accounts from the Navy and other services of unusual aerial systems interfering with military weapon platforms and displaying beyond-next-generation capabilities.” He expressed his frustration with the limitations placed on the program, telling Mr. Mattis that “there remains a vital need to ascertain capability and intent of these phenomena for the benefit of the armed forces and the nation.”

Mr. Elizondo has now joined Mr. Puthoff and another former Defense Department official, Christopher K. Mellon, who was a deputy assistant secretary of defense for intelligence, in a new commercial venture called To the Stars Academy of Arts and Science. They are speaking publicly about their efforts as their venture aims to raise money for research into U.F.O.s.


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USD - The Blue Path

DXY ... update


What actually, happened: The blue path


A rally to the blue MA (252d) at 96 is still my preferred case,

But after that, DXY may still head to the bottom of the channel or lower

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Nomi Prins: 'Dark Money' Runs The World

For the last 40 years, most people believed the stock market always goes up. Simply buy and hold long enough, the theory went, and you could sit back and watch the money accumulate in your account. No thought or hard work needed.

It was a nifty strategy — until the idea burned most investors in 2008. Almost a decade later, the scar tissue is still fresh for many investors.

Even today, after the U.S. stock market has rallied by 271% since the bottom on March 6, 2009 — nearly tripling investors’ money — only about half of Americans are invested in the stock market, according to NPR. That’s down from two-thirds compared to a decade ago.

The rest are in cash on the sidelines. Maybe that’s been you.

And who can blame you? “Fool me once, shame on you,” the saying goes. “Fool me twice, shame on me.”

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Bull etfs are still in downturn

TZA (3x Russell-2000) / FAZ (3x Financials) ... update


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Coming Down!

UK homeowners slash house prices by over £25,000 on average as property market slows

Stephen Little
Figures from Nationwide show that house price growth went up 0.1 per cent in November: Getty

UK homeowners desperate to sell their property in a slowing market have slashed their offer price by an average of £25,562, according to new figures from property website Zoopla.

An analysis of house price data across its website for November reveals that 35 per cent of properties on the market had been marked down, with average prices in London being cut by more than £50,000.

As a proportion of property price, Stockton-on-Tees saw the largest reductions, with homes in the town marked down by £13,350 – or 8 per cent on average – since being listed.

This was closely followed by Darlington and Bishop Auckland, where property was reduced by £12,285, or 7.88 per cent, and £10,573, or 7.86 per cent, respectively.

In London, 39 per cent of property listings were reduced in price, up from 37 per cent that were cut during the month of July. The average price reduction in London was £53,251 – or 7.4 per cent.

Kensington and Chelsea was the most discounted borough in value terms, with prices knocked down by £129,559 on average – representing 7.9 per cent of the total property price.


> more: https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/uk-homeowners-slash-house-prices-120200518.html?hl=1&noRedirect=1

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So tells me, my London-based friend (DF) who helped intro me to Bitcoins,

several years ago:

"It has been the greatest money-making opportunity of our lifetime

Roger Ver has turned a $25k investment in 2011 into $425m. He totally indoctrinated himself that bitcoin is the future and that enabled him to hold ..."
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David Stockman: Thundering Collision Coming in Bond Market, Gold Only Safe Asset Left

Former Reagan White House Budget Director David Stockman says, “The central banks realize they cannot keep printing money at these crazy rates, and by that I mean the bond buying. Now, they are going to begin to normalize and shrink their balance sheet. . . . By the fall (of 2018), they (the Federal Reserve) will be shrinking their balance sheet by $600 billion a year. What that means in plain simple English is that they (the Fed) are dumping $600 billion a year of existing bonds into the market just as Uncle Sam will be attempting to borrow $1.25 trillion more. Now, if you don’t think that is a financial collision waiting to happen, then I am not sure what would be. We are heading for a thundering collision in the bond market that will drive yields upward far more than the market is expecting. The stock market operates on the illusion of permanently low interest rates. When interest rates start to rise, everything is going to come apart because cheap debt has been priced in forever, and we are heading for far more expensive debt. . . . Bond prices are going to collapse when yields begin to rise. . . . Stock prices are going to collapse bigtime when the underlying predicate of cheap debt, massive stock buy backs and M&A deals and everything else supporting the market today finally reverses. So, we are going to have deflation in the canyons of Wall Street, and that will not be a happy day.”

Stockman also likes gold and silver and says those are only “safe investments left.”


> http://investmentwatchblog.com/david-stockman-thundering-collision-coming-in-bond-market-gold-only-safe-asset-left/

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The Washington Post Says That Fedcoin Will Be ‘Bigger’ Than Bitcoin

Fedcoin doesn’t even exist yet, and yet the Washington Post is already hyping it as the primary cryptocurrency that we will be using in the future. Do they know something that they rest of us do not? Just a few days ago I warned that global central banks could eventually try to take control of the cryptocurrency phenomenon, and so I was deeply alarmed to see the Post publish this sort of an article. We want cryptocurrencies to stay completely independent, and we definitely do not want the Federal Reserve and other global central banks to start creating their own versions. Because of course once they create their own versions they will want to start restricting the use of any competitors.

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Bitcoin plunges again, now down more than 28% since Sunday’s all-time high


Bitcoin BTCUSD, -16.07%   was last trading at $13,694, down more than 12% after peaking at $15,830 earlier in the day. Bitcoin futures BTCF8, -13.27%   on the CME were down for a fourth straight session, off almost 10% at $13,390, and are down about 22% this week.

Other leading cryptocurrencies were also hit hard Thursday night, with ether — which runs on the Ethereum network — down about 8% to $758 and bitcoin’s rival spinoff, bitcoin cash, down more than 20% to $2,969, according to CoinMarketCap.com.

/ 2 /

Bitcoin Drops 20% | Are cryptocurrencies setting up for a bear market?


He thinks: "A healthy correction" - But he would, wouldn't he

/ 3 /

Why did Bitcoin Drop So Much?

" I Bought a bunch of BTC, at $13,000 and change"

I PREFER: GOLD, Gold stocks, and are holding onto my property

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German house prices are accelerating!

After three years of strong house price rises, Germany’s housing market remains very strong.

The reasons?  Strong economic growth, 1.1 million refugees, high work-related immigration, record-low unemployment, weak construction supply and low interest rates.

The German hedonic price index rose by 6.24% (4.4% inflation-adjusted) during the year to end-Q3 2017 (hedonic indices attempt to compare like-for-like exactly, so are the best measure of house price trends), based on Europace figures. Quarter-on-quarter, the index increased 0.9% (0.4% inflation-adjusted) during the latest quarter.

During the year to Q3 2017:

  • Apartment prices rose by 7.4% (5.54% inflation-adjusted), after y-o-y rises of 8.65% in Q2 2017, 7.47% in Q1 2017, 8.66% in Q4 2016, and 9.35% in Q3 2016.
  • New home prices rose by 5.28% (3.45% inflation-adjusted), after y-o-y rises of 11.44% in Q2 2017, 11.13% in Q1 2017, 12.33% in Q4 2016, and 10.24% in Q3 2016.
  • Existing home prices rose by 6.1% (4.26% inflation-adjusted), after a y-o-y decline of 1.03% in Q2 2017, and annual rises of 3.71% in Q1 2017, 9.49% in Q4 2016, and 4.63% in Q3 2016.

The German housing market was one of the few that avoided a slump in the wake of the 2008-2009 global financial crisis.

/ 2 /

Germany a hot destination for overseas buyers

Germany is emerging as one of the most attractive real estate markets in Western Europe for foreign nationals, particularly for Hong Kong investors, in view of uncertainties prevailing in other global markets, including the U.K., Australia, Canada and New Zealand. 
According to a recent analysis by a property investment company IP Global, Germany is drawing the interest of investors for many reasons – including the lack any of capital gains tax on properties owned for ten years or more. 
However a growing supply and demand imbalance is heating up the German housing market. In 2016, 12,000 new homes were built, versus demand for 20,000.
Hamburg has witnessed 70% house price growth since 2009. Elsewhere in the country, Frankfurt, a global financial hub, is experiencing a population and employment growth spurt, contributing to an average house price increase of approximately 40% between 2009 and 2016.
Berlin is witnessing an exponential growth in population due to an increasing number of startups and new businesses. The population growth (with 40% of the population under 35 years old) will put upward pressure on property prices in coming years, according to experts. 
The vacancy rate for rentals in Berlin is merely 1.2%, indicating a strong demand for rental housing. 
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