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"Are the Provinces going to Boom?" Pro & Con


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"Are the Provinces going to Boom?" Pro & Con

/ people from the related Viber chat are especially welcome here /

Nearly all of the initial arguments are PRO - see below

This discussion started on the Viber chat, and herein are some of the points that came up.  But first, here are the bullet points in favor:

Why "the provinces may boom"?

1. Better transport infrastructure may make travel to Provincial cities, easier, faster, cheaper

2. The new TRAIN tax law may help raise income in provinces,

37628986-14732517729193027.png

3. Household debt levels are low in PH, meaning there may be vast untapped banking potential, especially in the provinces

4. Banks may see that an opportunity, and create better mortgage offerings for their customers living in the provinces, making it easier to borrow on provincial properties: New and Old.  This may kick off a surge in buying, and building of new properties, triggering a property boom

5. The new lower VAT threshold may still be meaningful in some provincial cities, with buyers able to buy condos costing up to the new VAT thresholds (Zero, inside Metro Manila, and P2mn?  outside.)

6. The Du30 admin wants to spread out growth, and so government policies may help to create more jobs in the provinces, helping to fuel the boom,

--- those points were off the top of my head (dr,B)

===

> Big Data thread :

 

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Legaspi : PLACES in the provinces to look at

Albay-map-620x322.pngBig picture look at Legazpi City location

Legaspi.10.gif

Showing nearby cities

RT and a friend from my favorite coffee shop (R.) are encouraging me to look at Legaspi, and develop some depth of knowledge there - I have already looked at Pampanga - but prices have moved already, and there is now a lot of competition there

(E.):

Naga and Legaspi is a good place but if you really intend to look at the province, Pampanga ... (see below)

(drB):

Right now, I do not know if I cud find Legaspi on a map

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Pampanga : PLACES

250px-Ph_locator_map_pampanga.png

pampanga2.gif

> Clark / Pampanga thread

E.:

if you really intend to look at the province, Pampanga is fast developing because of the Clark Airport, the Future Railway System and many others...

DrB:

i agree that Pampanga may be great. But elsewhere, i might be able to spot an opportunity, which has not yet pushed up prices. That is my usual investing strategy : to look for unrecognized bargains.

Having said that, the momentum & future potential driven by the airport & rail transport, could make even today's (higher) prices in Pampanga look like a bargain within a few years

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Pangasinan PLACES

250px-Ph_locator_map_pangasinan.png

pangasinanmap.jpg

(FZ):

Hi everyone. I am now deeply invested in my home province - Pangasinan. Development has now taken off and all the malls are jockeying to set up. If you are a landowner in Pangasinan or interested in looking at investments either in consolidated farming or housing, please PM.

(I will try to pass on any inquiries that come through here)

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DATA & Research ideas:

(BV):

Is there a software or company that can assist you in predicting whether a property is a bargain?

Sort of an analytics software. Most of analysis in real estate investing is based on traditional cash flow and projected capital growth. I'm thinking of estimating it based on other economic inputs

(IF):

What other economic indicators are you considering?

(BV):

Say, GDP geographical population, income data, building permits issued, local govt income, etc.

Basically economic/geo data that has shown strong correlation to predict direction of prices and rents and summarized by a software/company service so you just input these data and you'll come with a recommended value so you can compare it with the asking price of the seller

(IM):

Perhaps a more predictive and leading indicators are local incomes, ofw population in the area, bank loans available (loan terms), and then purchase velocity in the area.

The model will not be used to predict prices.

But instead identify opportunities

(R.)

BCI Asia could give data on opportunities but with cost

(E.)

Even Appraisal Companies have no data as to the Secondary Market except in areas where appraisal is most often required..

(BV):

The closest i can think off now is the pricing tool of zillow. Basically analytics driven.

(W.):

Zoopla is UK's Zillow valuation version...

Make one for PH call it Zinoy hehe

 

 

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"ZINOY", or tbn Analytics Tool(s) for "Moneyball-ing" Opportunities

(E.)

Infrastructure project is a very good basis of properties in the areas.. Example, Alabang areas have a tremendous increase in price because of the Skyway... the Daang Hari and the CALAX is another example of this...

(BV):

Haha...what i really want to aim at is maybe our org can be the 1st group to offer some kind of pricing tool...sort of like the philippine hedge fund for real estate. Fundamental analysis is to appraisal while technical analysis is to real estate analytic.

You know we can be the 1st. We can get some smart computer programmers, statisticians and appraisers to provide the working inputs.

(R.2):

Something like rpdata in australia

(W.)

You dont really need a pricing tool to moneyball this business. Just pick an area, know it inside out, be PATIENT for a deal to present itself. And when it does, you'll know the prices in the area well enough, that you wont need a pricing tool to act quickly and close the deal.

 

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The analytical approach is increasingly popular

The Use of Predictive Analytics in Real Estate Investing

> https://www.mashvisor.com/blog/use-predictive-analytics-real-estate-investing/

 
What is Predictive Analytics?

Although the term may sound complex, predictive analytics is not a difficult concept to understand. In a nutshell, predictive analytics is the art of analyzing big data by using past data to predict future trends...

Real Estate Markets and Analytics

Real estate markets are complicated, volatile and always changing and real estate investors want to be able to evaluate whether their potential property is a good investment or not. At the end of the day, all they want is to make wise investment decisions that maximize their return. With predictive analytics, investors will be able to objectively assess when and where to invest, optimize their selections and determine real value of properties. Additional metrics such as price forecasts, market cycle risks and desirability analytics are also key to such investors.

/ 2 /

Predictive Analytics Helping to Boost Real Estate Business

SAN FRANCISCO (November 9, 2013) – Predictive analytics, or evaluating and interpreting data to predict future outcomes and trends, is helping the real estate industry better understand transaction and market data and use it to benefit the industry, agents and consumers.

Realtors® and attendees at today’s “Emerging Business Technology” forum during the 2013 REALTORS® Conference and Expo gained insights into predictive analytics and leveraging data to help Realtors® and local and state associations make better business decisions.

The National Association of Realtors® recently launched a new Predictive Analytics group that will examine and analyze member and customer trends from a variety of data sets to help the association determine and develop services and resources that provide value to Realtors® and give them insights into ways they can better meet the needs of their clients.

During the session, NAR Managing Director of Data Analytics Todd Carpenter said the goal is to use disparate data sources to build analytical models that will solve complex problems in the housing industry and to develop tools to help Realtors®, state and local associations, and others make better data driven decisions.

> MORE: https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/predictive-analytics-helping-to-boost-real-estate-business

==

> These Articles are quoted more extensively, are open for comment on another thread: BIG DATA

 

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LOCATION related

6/ Industrial park developers head North of Luzon

Major property developers are headed North, like Double Dragon, who acquired a 6.2 hectare lot in Luisita Industrial park in Tarlac.

Xu Liand Dragon group has committed to develop a 3.000 ha mixed use SEZ /industrial zone in Pangasinan.  Ayala is developing 31 ha industrial park in Alviera estate in Porac, and Filinvest has a 100-hectare industrial estate in Clark Green City

7/ More townships outside Metro Manila

Colliers expects developers to continue building satellite communities in and around Manila using the Walkability concept: Live/Work/Play & Shopping/Lifestyle. Mixed use likely to be more popular than standalone.

Focus may be on areas outside Metro-manila, like: Cavite, Laguna, Bulacan, Pampanga, Cebu & Davao.

Land values will be unlocked by aggressive expansion of road networks.

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Subic Bay may also be worth a closer look.

Subic-map.gif

The deep port, and the plan for a rail link make it interesting

touristmap.jpg

Subic Bay tourist map

Subic Bay is a bay on the west coast of the island of Luzon in the Philippines, about 100 kilometres (62 mi) northwest of Manila Bay. An extension of the South China Sea, its shores were formerly the site of a major United States Navy facility named U.S. Naval Base Subic Bay, which is now the location of an industrial and commercial area known as the Subic Bay Freeport Zone under the Subic Bay Metropolitan Authority.
. . .
Following the destruction of the 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption, the Americans closed the base, and the area was transformed into the Subic Bay Freeport Zone.

In 2012, controversy arose when a contracted shipping firm was accused of dumping toxic waste into Subic Bay. MT Glenn Guardian, one of the vessels owned by a Malaysian firm, had collected some 189,500 litres (41,700 imp gal; 50,100 US gal) of domestic waste and about 760 litres (170 imp gal; 200 US gal) of bilge water from the USS Emory Land, an American Navy ship. Since the Malaysian firm was contracted by the US Navy, albeit under Philippine approval, this incident ignited anti-American sentiments in the Philippines from a single militant group

==

> wiki: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subic_Bay

 

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Subic's Transport links

375px-NASCubi.JPEG

Subic Bay International Airport (Filipino: Paliparang Pandaigdig ng Look ng Subic) or SBIA (IATA: SFS, ICAO: RPLB) serves as a secondary airport and a main diversion airport of the Ninoy Aquino International Airport. It is also the airport serving the immediate area of the Subic Bay Freeport Zone and the general area of Olongapo in the Philippines.

> wiki: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subic_Bay_International_Airport
==

TAXIS & BUSES : Manila to Subic is about 120 kilometres.
A taxi may cost P4,500-5,000 ($80-$100), before tolls and take maybe 4 hours

If you are in Subic, it is easier to just take a Victory liner bus from Olongapo (destination Pasay) - there is an air con bus every hour from 3 am to 7:30 pm. Take the buses going through SCTEX - They are much faster.

Travel time = assume 4 hours. / Bus ticket cost = 225 pesos

The bus stop is located here - http://goo.gl/maps/C4hzH

+ Taxis are far more expensive than bus. About 15 times.

+ An easier and almost equally comfortable option (from NAIA) is - take a taxi to Victory liner (Pasay) = 300 pesos. Then take the next air con bus to Olongapo (the bus station for Subic bay) = 300 pesos. Do remember that the last busfor Olongapo leaves at around 6 pm - thereafter buses only run this route if there are many passengers.

+ Victory liner Cubao has more bus services, but is a bit farther off than Pasay.

A RAIL link is proposed

    Oct 12, 2016 - The Philippines is set to have its first bullet train under the Duterte administration... The SBMA chairman added that the bullet train is eyed to run from Subic to Clark and vice versa spanning 60 kilometers... Planned to be constructed under a public/private partnership with China. (But will it push through?)

    Build.org: train, Subic to Clark (2021?)

    Description:

    The Subic-Clark Railway Project will provide rail connection

    between Subic Bay Freeport Zone and Clark Freeport and Special

    Economic Zone, linking Subic Port with Clark International Airport

    and other major economic hubs in Central Luzon, especially

    New Clark City, and forming an integrated logistics hub

    for the development of Central Luzon as a new growth center

    to decongest Metro Manila.

    Budget: P58Bn?

     

     

     

     

     

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    Subic / Clark Rail cargo rail

    C-QQxpPXUAAYa7O.jpg

    north-rail-project-map-carousel.jpg

    https://www.portcalls.com/subicclark-railway-project-study/

    north-rail-project-map-carousel.jpg

    MANILA, Philippines - Pangilinan-led Metro Pacific Investment Corp. (MPIC) is still keen on undertaking the government's bullet train project between Manila and Clark should it push through.

     
     
     
     
    Ads by
     
     

     

    Asked to respond to a report that the government is studying how to proceed with the rail project meant to boost Clark's chances as alternative or main gateway, MPIC Vice President for Corporate Communications Melody del Rosario said they are still keen on undertaking the project but have not submitted any proposal to the government.

    "We've always been interested in that (bullet train project). We have expressed our interest. We want to participate if government will bid it out," del Rosario said.

    However, the project seems a long shot since it remains in the early stages of project evaluation and has a long way to go before it reaches the bidding phase.

     

    Only when the government has decided on its airport strategy -- whether Clark will become the main in place of, or alternative international airport to, congested Ninoy Aquino International Airport (NAIA) in Manila -- will the rail project proceed.

    Approvals

    Officials have long said they intend to build a bullet train system, similar to Japan and China.

    >

     

     

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    Decisions

    Part of the evaluation process is to choose whether the proposed rail will use the old PNR (Philippine National Railway) alignment or the NLEx alignment to connect Metro Manila to Clark.

    Most parts of the PNR alignment are currently the same tracks meant for the scuttled roll out of the Northrail project, which was hounded by legal and regulatory issues. The ongoing territorial dispute between the Philippines and China, which won the Northrail project under the Arroyo administration, has further dampened the chances of the key rail project originally designed to connect Manila and Clark.

    A rail project between the two gateways is crucial to make the airport in Clark, Pampanga more accessible, and for airlines to boost their domestic and international operations in Clark airport.

    ==

    > https://www.rappler.com/business/industries/208-infrastructure/26737-manila-clark-bullet-train-coming-soon

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    Clark Int'l Airport Expansion Project

    + The future belongs to Clark because of its huge expanse of land (4,000 hectares),
    and ts two giant runways.  But NAIA (63 h.) will remain important, and has its own expansion
    + Ground-breakingfor the new terminal was last week on a 100K sqm New Terminal Building
    + The entire airport-expressway expansion at Clark will cost P 1 trllion
    + NAIA cannot accomodate the growing passenger traffic, with only 1 runway
    + NAIA now gets 40 take-offs per hour, and with improvements can go to 48 take-offs.
    + As the limit is ht at NAIA, more and more airlines are moving to Clark
    (pg. 9, Manila Bulletin, 12/26/2017)

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    DoubleDragon bets big on countryside growth

    + DD plans to sell P7.3 billion of equity within the first half to expand

    + As a newcomer to the PH property sector, DD is focusing on 2nd tier & 3rd tier cities.

    + They plan "industrial leasing hubs" in 100 cities, in 40 provinces

    + DD says: "everyone will have to go to the provinces in the next 2-3 years, and we are getting there early"

    + They see synergies between Central Hub & CityMalls businesses, since Mall tenants will need the resources offered by the Hubs, ie: commissary, cold storage, warehouse, distribution center, and manufacturing facilities

    DD's target by 2020 is to boost its leaseable portfolio from 1.0 Mn sqm, to 1.2 Mn sqm, and revise its net income target up from P4.8 billion to P5.5 billion.

    DD was launched in the stock market in 2014, with nothing but a piece of land and big plans.  They have delivered on the promises, and are now targeting a new phase of aggressive growth

     

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    MAPLE GROVE is Cavite's new CBD from Megaworld

    Planned: A flourishing business district within a 35-hectare area

    jht5coj.png

    Property giant Megaworld is building a new business district within its 140-hectare Maple Grove township in General Trias, Cavite.

    + Inspired by Makati, to be built around an open green space,

    + 30-45 minutes drive from Makati via Coastal road & Cavitex, and at the entry point of the industrial and residential center of the Cavite-Batangas corridor

    + 365 prime lots are for sale, ranging from 360 sqm- 1008 sqm, and the Maple Grove CBD is expected to generate P9billion of com'l space inventory

    + Megaworld aims to brand this township as "the Green City of the South".  Maple Grove will have seven green and open parks, including a "Central Park".  There will be a 6-lane main highway,

    + Completion of the CBD is planned by 2023.

    ==

    > Nov.2017: https://www.megaworldcorp.com/megaworld-to-build-makati-inspired-business-district-in-cavite/

    > Cavite CBD(s) thread: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/topic/21832-cavites-new-cbds-maple-grove-etc/

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    Now... it's Bulacan

    Cheer Residences, SMDC's new development near the PNR station

    Residents 'cheer' for first vertical project in Marilao

    5a9N6b1.jpg

    + A cluster of five 7-storey buildings, near SM City Marilao along McArthur Hway
    + Will benefit from the construction of the PNR station, connecting Bulacan to Tutuban
    + Pre-sales hit 35-percent by late Dec.
    + A number of buyers are said to work in Manila, but want to be in/near the SM Mall,
    and the future transport connection
    + The development features an "open concept" floor plan

    feat_image68.jpg

    Amenities: swimming pool, clubhouse, function room, play area, & a "central park"
    (From The Manila Times, Dec. 20, 2017, pg. C3)

    LAUNCH Prices - seem to start at P79k per sqm

    Price Range‎: ‎Php 2.3Million and up
    Number of Units‎: ‎900
    Units Per Floor‎: ‎     24
    Unit Sizes‎: ‎Starting at 29 sqm (cheapest P79.3k per sqm)
    Turnover :  August 2020
    > xx
    Walkthrough Video
    Unfortunately, Cheer does not look very cheerful to me.  SM does better
     
    SMDC_cheer-residences-marilao-bulacan-co
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    DOTr marks first PNR station in Bulacan

    Published

    By Freddie Velez

    MARILAO, Bulacan – The Department of Transportation (DOTr) marked its first PNR station in Bulacan last Monday, one of the stations of the 106-kilometer (km) Manila- Clark Railway project under President Duterte’s ‘Build Build Build’ infrastructure program.

    The DOTr marking of its first of the five stations of the PNR North Railway Project (Freddie C. Velez / MANILA BULLETIN)

    DOTr marks first PNR station in Bulacan (Freddie C. Velez / MANILA BULLETIN)

    “For the first time, a rail project would connect Manila to Central Luzon,” Transportation Secretary Arthur P. Tugade said.

    Tugade added that DOTr hopes to finish the term of President Duterte with at least 1,000 kilometers of railway system all over the country.

    The entire rail line would have 13 train sets with eight cars or coaches per train set. Each train could reach a maximum speed of 120 km per hour. The rail line with a total of 17 stations would run from Tutuban passing through Marilao and Malolos and all the way to the Clark International Airport and the proposed New Clark City in Pampanga.

    Aside from significantly reducing the two to three hours travel time from Manila to Clark to just 55 minutes, the rail project is seen to decongest Metro Manila and spur development in its peripheries.

    “This project would ease traffic congestion and help thousands of commuters coming from Bulacan and Pampanga to travel daily to their workplaces or schools in Manila” shares Philippine National Railways (PNR) general manager Jun Magno.

    ==

    > https://news.mb.com.ph/2017/06/27/dotr-marks-first-pnr-station-in-bulacan/

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    • 3 weeks later...

    where? where? where? will this 50% Growth be??

    GREAT for PROVINCES - big growth in next 5 years says LeeChiu: Whilst 70% of the total projected IT-BPM workforce will still remain in Metro Manila,
    National Government’s all inclusive-plan will positively impact expansion in the provinces.IT-BPM labor workforce in the provinces is estimated to grow by 60% in 2022. Provincial full time employees will  grow from 1.2 million to 1.8 million in the next 5 years, which translates to 3 million sqm

    > http://leechiu.com/insights/Market Insights 12.13.17.pdf

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    • 4 weeks later...

    Bacolod City on Negros Occidental

    Ph_locator_negros_occidental_bacolod.png

    Having a total of 561,875 inhabitants as of 2015 census, it is the most populous city in the Western Visayas and the second most populous city in the Visayas after Cebu City.

    It is known for being a relatively friendly city, as it bears the nickname "The City of Smiles". In 2008, Bacolod topped a survey by MoneySense Magazine as the "Best Place to Live in the Philippines". The city has also been declared by the Department of Science and Technology as a "center of excellence" for information technology and business process management operations. In 2012, Bacolod was ranked the most livable city in the Philippines by iKwaderno online magazine after a conducted school survey using research data and analysis. It got a high score of 85.183 while the rest of the top seven are Davao City with 84.80, Marikina with 84.32, Makati with 83.87, Manila with 83.35... etc

    > wiki: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bacolod

    bacolod_map.gif

    Bacolod is the Philippines' third fastest growing economy in terms of information technology (IT) and business process outsourcing (BPO) activities.  Bacolod ranked 3rd among the top ten "Next Wave Cities" of the Philippines for the best location for BPO and offshoring according to a 2010 report of the Commission on Information and Communications Technology.

    Among the notable BPO companies operating in the city are Convergys, Teleperformance, TTEC, Transcom, Ubiquity Global Services,[36][37] Panasiatic Solutions,[38] Focus Direct Inc. – Bacolod,[39] Alliance Call Centre,[39][40] TELESYNERGY Corp. – Bacolod,[41] Hit Rate Solutions/Next Level IT Teleservices,[42][39] Focusinc Group Corporation,[43] Shorecloud Corporation,[44] Pathcutters Philippines Inc.,[45] and TeleQuest Voice Services (TQVS).[39][40]

    Along its highways, sugarcane plantations are a typical scene. As of 2003, 7,216 hectares (17,830 acres) of the city’s 8,560 hectares (21,200 acres) of agricultural land were still planted with sugarcane. Meanwhile, 915 hectares (2,260 acres) were devoted to rice... According to the "Philippine Cities Competitiveness Ranking Project 2005" of Asian Institute of Management (AIM), Bacolod tops the list in terms of infrastructure, ahead of such other mid-size cities like Iligan, Calamba and General Santos. The city also tops the list in terms of quality of life...

    > More, on New thread: Bacolod, Negros: Sweet Life in a modernizing City

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