DrBubb's Diary - May 2018 Trading - v.112

[drbubb]

Dr.B's Trading Diary : 2018. Diary's 112th Month,

8 years+ since 3/09 Low : Fresh New Peak in Dec.: Dow closed 2017 @ 24,719

Top of Page Charts (Odd) : Channel-GE : MP : PP : Charts : Acore : Fringe : Ag B E G H :

CORSI EXPOSES TRUTH | TRUMP RECRUITED BY MILITARY!!!

 

================

DrBubb's Diary - May 2018 Trading - v.112

The Fed's Racetrack: Gold (GLD) vs Stocks (SPY) : update :vs.CRB : GLD-hr : SPY-hr : GLD/SPYratio

The Fed's money-printing has maintained confidence in markets - but the money has gone not only into stocks, but also into other areas. For many months, money flowed into commodities like Gold, pushing prices higher even faster than stocks, as the chart above shows. But since Gold's peak in Aug.2011, stocks have outperformed gold. Since then, these two assets have tended to trade counter-cyclically to each other.

Gold in EURO - very worthwhile to track

Short Term:

Medium Term - 3 Years: Gold-inEUR

US Stocks: "SPX-in-Euros" .. SPX-to-EUR or SPY-to-FXE  .. update

Ratio - SPX/Euro has often moved in a nice clear channels

DrBubb's "Early Warning System"

Leading Ratio ... LQD:TLT-Weekly-3yrs : TLT-vsLQD : Copper : HG price : CU price : SPY-10/11 : SMH-6mos

I reckon that the LQD-to-TLT ratio should move in harmony with stocks, or maybe LEAD stock moves. If they are moving in different directions, then one should be cautious. (However, the value of this indicator has become suspect in recent years, after giving some false warnings.)
=====
Bullish Percentages :
BPNYA- : http://stockcharts.c...!Lh14,3]&pref=G
BPGDM : http://stockcharts.c...!Lh14,3]&pref=G
NASIT - : NAMOT : Summation Indices

INFLATION Watch / "Big Three" (SPY, GLD, DXY) .. 10d : 6mo-D : 2yr-D : 5yr-D // CU-etc

RECORD : CU may lead GLD and SPY
======

US Fed'l Debt // Formula: (Fed'l Debt - $4.0 Trillion ) x 119 +$100

Date-: DebtTr > G.Eqv /10.40 : - GLD - : - SPY - : -DIFF- : - ratio - : -- CU -- : cu/gld : - FXI - : cu-fxi : - DBA- : - BTC - :

end07: $09.23 > 0,722 : 072.2 : $082.46 : $146.21 : -63.75: 56.398% : $20.0e: XX.X% :: $ 17.05: ==== : $ 32.99 :

end08: $10.70 > 0,897 : 089.7 : $086.52 : $090.24 : -$3.72: 95.878% : $20.0e: XX.X% :: $ 29.09: ==== : $ 26.18 :

end09: $12.31 > 1,089 : 108.9 : $107.31 : $111.44 : -$4.13: 96.294% : $30.0e: XX.X% :: $ 42.26: ==== : $ 26.44 :

end10: $14.03 > 1,294: 129.4 : $138.74 : $125.75 : $12.99: 110.34% : $43.71: 31.51%: $ 43.09: $0.62: $ 32.35 : $ 00.29 :

end11: $15.22 > 1,435: 138.0 : $151.99 : $125.50 : $26.49: 121.11% : $29.29: 19.27%: $ 34.87: - 5.58: $ 28.88 : $ 04.60 :

end12: $16.43 > 1,570: 151.0 : $162.02 : $142.41 : $19.61: 113.77% : $30.34: 18.73%: $ 40.45:-10.11: $ 27.95 : $ 13.48 :

end13: $17.35 > 1,689: 162.4 : $116.12 : $184.69 : -68.57 : 062.87% : $22.27: 19.18%: $ 38.37:-16.10: $ 24.25 :$815.00 :

end14: $18.14 > 1,783 : 171.4 : $113.58 : $205.54 : -98.04 : 55.26% :: $18.09: 15.93%: $ 41.62:-23.53: $ 24.89 :$316.20 :

end15: $18.83 > 1,865 : 179.3 : $101.46 : $203.87 :-102.41: 49.77% :: 2.135 : 2.140%: $ 35.29:-00.00: $ 20.61: $433.50 :

end16

(2016)
01/29: $19.01 > 1,886 : 180.0 : $108.05 : $193.65 : - $85.60: 55.80% :: 2.060 : 1.907% $ 31.20:-00.00: $ 19.99: $375.00 :
02/29: $19.13 > 1,900 : 181.3 : $118.64 : $193.56 : - $74.98: 61.29% :: 2. ??? : 1.000% $ 30.00: -00.00: $ 20.00: $434.00 :
03/31: $19.26 > 1,916 : 182.8 : $117.64 : $205.52 : - $87.88: 57.24% :: 2. ??? : 1.000% $ 33.77: -13.17: $ 20.60: $415.00 :
04/30: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $123.65 : $206.33 : - $82.68: 59.93% :: 2. ??? : 1.000% $ 33.53: -12.45: $ 21.08: $4 ??.00 :
05/31: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $116.06 : $209.84 : - $93.78: 55.31% :: 2.080 : 1.792% $ 33.65: -12.34: $ 21.31: $526.10 :

06/30: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $126.47 : $209.48 : - $83.01: 60.37% :: 2.0 ?? : 0.000% $ 00.00: -00.00: $ 00.00: $0
07/31: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $128.98 : $217.12 : - $88.14: 59.40% :: 2.0 ?? : 0.000% $ 00.00: -00.00: $ 00.00: $0
08/31: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $124.78 : $217.38 : - $92.60: 57.40% :: 2.080 : 1.667% $ 37.08: -16.85: $ 20.23: $570.00 :

=====
ye'16 : $20.0E > 1,8 xx : 18x.x :

Date-: DebtTr > G.Eqv /10.40 : - GLD - : - SPY - : -DIFF- : - ratio - : -- CU -- : cu/gld : - FXI - : cu-fxi : - DBA- : - BTC - :

======

"GOLD Formula" is : (Fed'l Debt - $4.0 Trillion ) x 119 +$100 : US Govt Debt :: http://www.usgovernmentdebt.us/

The FED must be pleased with the way that money has flowed into stocks, away from Gold. / notes : a b c

[drbubb]

DAILY MONITOR

Month: -SPY- : Chg : volume/ VIX : GDX: +-chg: -GLD- : Chg: volume: x10.?? WTI.Cr: -DXY-- -Chg- : --TLT-: Chg : Posts/Views cum'l
2015
12-31: 203.87 - 2.06: 91.2M: 18.21 : 13.72 +0.06: 101.46 +0.04 : 3.81M: 1060.5 $37.07* 98.693 +0.413: 120.58 +0.54 : 02, 086/ 051, 1,913

 2016
03-31: 205.52 - 0.50: 79.4M: 13.95 : 19.97 - 0.26: 117.64 +0.54: 9.17M: 1233.9 $38.11* $94.63 - 0.10 : 130.61 +0.92 : 03, 096/ 1618, 4,518
06-30: 209.48 + 2.82: 143.M: 15.63 : 27.71 +0.56: 126.47 +0.63: 15.1M: 1324.7 $48.40* $95.81 +0.05 : 138.90 +0.51 : 0?, 055/ 060, 1,941
09-30: 216.30 +1.62: 98.7M: 13.29 : 26.43 - 0.26:  125.64 - 0.43: 10.8M: 1317.1 $48.24* $95.42 - 0.10 : 137.51 - 1.24/ 04, 096 : 1191, 6,335
12-30: 223.53 - 0.82: 86.9M: 14.04 : 20.92 - 0.83: 109.61  - 0.68: 8.79M: 1151.7 $53.72* 102.38 - 0.27 : 119.13 + 0.18/ 03, 096: 9396, 13876  

2017
01-31: 227.53 - 0.02 00.0M: 12.09 : 23.93 +0.78: 115.55 +1.68: 0.00M: 1211.8 $52.80* $99.74 -0.62 : 119.84 +0.57/ 08 120 : 4554, 10255
02-28: 236.47 - 0.64 69.6M: 12.92 : 22.85 +0.01: 119.23 +0.11 8.29M: 1253.9 $54.01* 101.48 +0.32 : 121.74 +0.45/ 09, 085 : 4109, 7,634
03-31: 235.74 - 0.55 56.2M: 12.37 : 22.81 +0.26: 118.72 +0.25 8.14M: 1251.2 $50.60* 100.22 -0.07 : 120.71 +0.35/ 10, 120: 17.4K, 23202
04-28: 238.08 - 0.52 50.4M: 10.82 : 22.23 +0.42: 120.77 +0.38 8.86M: 1268.3 $49.33* $99.04 - 0.15 : 122.35 +0.27/ 12, 098: 5178, 11915
05-31: 241.44 - 0.06 00.0M: 10.41 : 22.69 +0.10: 120.62 +0.48 0.00M: 1264.8: $48.32* $97.21 +0.00 : 124.14 +0.05/ 04, 106 : 976, 6,918
06-30: 241.80 +0.45 49.4M: 11.18 : 22.08 + 0.13: 118.02 -0.30 6.79M: 1242.3: $46.04* $95.64 +0.09 : 125.12 - 0.29/ 04, 095 : 723, 5,020
07-31: 246.77 -0.14 42.9M: 10.25 : 22.86 - 0.05 : 120.75 +0.06 3.82M: 1273.8 $50.17: $92.90 - 0.43 : 124.04 +0.15/ 00, 094 : 800, 5,056
08-31: 247.49 +1.48 75.8M: 10.59 : 24.72 +0.56 : 125.82 +1.46 11.3M: 1322.2 $47.23: $92.62 +0.06 : 127.99 +0.38/ 03, 091 : 894, 5,034
=====
09-29: 251.23 +0.88 60.7M: %9.51 : 22.96 -0.20 : 121.58 - 0.63 8.77M: 1284.8 $51.67: $93.07 - 0.06 : 124.76 +0.28/ 08, 067 : 1346, 4,235
10-31: 257.15 +0.40 42.7M: 10.18 : 22.48 - 0.28 : 120.67 - 0.46 3.76M: 1277.5 $54.20: $94.54 +0.01 : 124.46 +0.04/ 03, 101 : 1158, 2,371
11-30: 265.01 +2.30 104.M: 11.28 : 22.47 - 0.03 : 121.10 - 0.94 7.84M: 1276.7 $57.40: $92.97  - 0.09 : 125.12 - 0.42/ 03, 079 : 545, 2,180 :1436
12-29: 266.86 - 1.01 60.8M: 11.04 : 23.24 +0.04 : 123.65 +0.80 7.55M: 1309.3 $60.42 : $92.30 - 0.20 : 126.86 +0.20/ 05, 107 : 000, 1590

====

---: SPY- : Chg : volume/ VIX : GDX: +-chg: -GLD- : Chg: volume: x10.?? WTI.Cr: -DXY- -Chg.- : --TLT- : Chg : Posts/Views cum'l:

JAN

30: 281.76 - 2.92 116.M: 14.79 : 23.45 - 0.23 : 126.80 - 0.55 9.37M: 1340.0 $64.50 : $89.05 - 0.37 : 122.01 - 0.72/ 04, 107 : 072, 1335
31: 281.90 +0.14 97.6M: 13.54 : 23.75 +0.30 : 127.65 +0.85 13.0M: 1343.1 $64.73 : $89.11 +0.06 : 122.73 +0.72/

FEB
28: 271.65 - 2.78 101.M: 19.85 : 21.35 - 0.14 : 125.00 - 0.13 4.52M: 1317.9 $61.64 : $90.73 +0.07 : 118.75 +0.75/ 00, 076 : 000, 1093

MAR
29: 263.15 +3.32 104.M: 19.97 : 21.98 - 0.01 : 125.79 +0.06 6.84M: 1327.3 $64.94 : $90.01 -0.13 : 121.90 +0.59/ 00, 67: 000, 0880

APR
02: 257.47 -5.68 000.M: 23.62 : 22.23 +0.25 : 127.26 +1.47 0.00M: 1000.0 $00.00 : $90.18 +0.17 : 121.88 -0.02/
03: 260.77 +3.30 118.M: 21.10 : 21.91 -0.32 : 126.30 -0.96 5.99M: 1337.3 $63.51 : $90.07 -0.11 : 120.94 -0.94/
04: 263.56 +2.79 112.M: 20.06 : 21.87 -0.04 : 126.45 +0.15 7.08M: 1340.2 $63.37 : $90.16 +0.09 : 120.69 -0.25/
05: 265.64 +2.08 76.2M: 18.94 : 21.97 +0.10 : 125.80 -0.65 5.28M: 1328.5 $63.54 : $90.53 +0.08 : 119.79 -0.90/
06: 259.72 -5.92 151.M: 21.49 : 22.07 +0.10 : 126.39 +0.59 6.05M: 1336.1 $62.06 : $90.07 -0.46 : 121.10 +1.31/
09: 261.00 +1.28 000.M: 20.77 : 21.98 -0.09 : 126.82 +0.43 0.00M: 1340.1 $63.42 : $89.62 -0.45 : 121.30 +0.20/
10: 265.15 +4.15 98.1M: 20.47 : 22.26 +0.28 : 127.12 +0.30 5.23M: 1345.9 $65.51 : $89.61 -0.01 : 121.08 -0.22/
11: 263.76 -1.39 82.6M: 20.24 : 22.75 +0.49 : 128.11 +0.99 12.1M: 1000.0 $00.00 : $89.53 -0.08 : 121.51 +0.43/
12: 265.93 +2.17 64.9M: 18.49 : 22.47 -0.28 : 126.62 +1.49 7.99M: 1341.9 $67.07 : $89.77 +0.22 : 120.62 -0.89/
13: 265.18 -0.78 76.8M: 17.41 : 22.89 +0.42 : 127.45 +0.83 6.69M: 1347.9 $67.39 : $89.77 +0.00 : 120.90 +0.28/
16: 267.33 +2.18 55.2M: 16.56 : 22.80 -0.09 : 127.63 +0.18 4.58M: 1000.0 $00.00 : $89.41 -0.36 : 120.94 +0.04/
17: 270.19 +2.86 00.0M: 15.60 : 22.93 +0.13 : 127.75 +0.12 0.00M: 1349.5 $66.52 : $89.61 +0.20 : 121.27 +0.33/
18: 270.39 +0.20 51.0M: 15.61 : 22.98 +0.05 : 127.85 +0.10 6.71M: 1353.5 $68.47 : $89.69 +0.08 : 120.30 -0.97/
19: 268.89 - 1.50: 75.5M: 15.96 : 23.06 +0.08 : 127.60 -0.25 8.64M: 1348.8 $68.33 : $89.95 +0.05 : 119.32 -0.98/
20: 266.61 - 2.28: 88.0M: 16.88 : 22.71 - 0.35 : 126.63 -0.97 9.06M: 1338.3 $68.40 : $90.26 +0.31 : 118.46 - 0.86/
23: 266.57 - 0.04: 56.2M: 15.67 : 22.41 - 0.30 : 125.62 - 1.01 6.77M: 1324.0 $68.64 : $90.88 - 0.05 : 118.49 +0.03/
24: 262.98 - 3.59: 00.0M: 18.02 : 22.40 - 0.01 : 126.23 +0.61 0.00M: 1333.0 $67.70 : $91.26 +0.38 : 117.95 -0.54/
25: 263.63 +0.65: 86.8M: 17.84 : 22.20 - 0.20 : 125.41 - 0.82 5.85M: 1322.8 $68.05 : $91.19 - 0.07 : 117.16 --0.79/
26: 266.31 +2.68: 59.6M: 16.24 : 22.59 +0.09 : 124.97 - 0.44 7.46M: 1417.9 $68.19 : $91.56 +0.37 : 117.98 +0.82/
27: 266.56 +0.25: 50.2M: 15.41 : 22.73 +0.14 : 125.50 +0.53 5.34M: 1323.4 $68.10 : $91.53 - 0.05 : 118.89 +0.91/
30: 264.51 - 2.05: 65.0M: 15.93 : 22.28 - 0.45 : 124.59 - 0.91 9.59M: 1319.2 $68.57 : $91.86 +0.27 : 119.10 +0.21/ 074, 0,630
MAY
01: 264.98 +0.47: 62.2M: 15.49 : 22.31 +0.03 : 123.71 -0.88 7.49M: 1306.8 $67.25 : $92.46 +0.64 : 118.41 - 0.43/
02: 263.20 - 1.78: 86.4M: 15.97 : 22.38 +0.07 : 123.65 - 0.06 7.61M: 1000.0 $00.00 : $92.51 +0.05 : 118.28 - 0.13/
03: 262.62 - 0.58: 136.M: 15.90 : 22.65 +0.27 : 124.28 +0.63 4.86M: 1312.7 $68.43 : $92.44 - 0.07 : 118.81 +0.53/
04: 266.02 +3.40: 71.1M: 14.77 : 22.65 +0.00 : 124.54 +0.26 5.81M: 1314.7 $69.72 : $92.57 +0.13 : 118.99 +0.18/
07: 266.92 +0.90: 48.2M: 14.75 : 22.65 +0.00 : 124.57 +0.03 3.06M: 1314.1 $70.73 : $92.76 +0.19 : 118.80 -0.19/ 00, 020; 000, 108
08: 266.92 +0.00 00.0M: 14.71 : 22,68 +0.03 : 124.59 +0.02 0.00M: 1000.0 $00.00 : $93.12 +0.44 : 118.69 -0.11/ 02, 024; 010, 118
09: 269.50 +2.58 53.5M: 13.42 : 22.63 -0.05 : 124.33 -0.26 4.30M: 1000.0 $00.00 : $93.12 +0.00 : 117.98 -0.71/ 02, 024; 012, 130
10: 272.02 +2.52 60.8M: 13.23 : 22.95 +0.32 : 125.18 +0.85 5.12M: 1322.3 $71.36 : $92.71 -0.41 : 118.93 +0.95/ 05, 029; 044, 174
11: 272.85 +0.83 50.4M: 12.65 : 22.88 -0.07 : 125.00 -0.18 4.17M: 1320.7 $70.70 : $92.55 -0.16 : 119.23 +0.30/ 04, 033; 044, 218218
14: 272.98 +0.12 64.8M: 14.63 : 22.78 -0.10 : 124.49 -0.51 3.80M: 1318.0 $70.96 : $92.65 +0.10 : 118.60 -0.63/ 03, 036; 042, 260
15: 271.10 -1.88 78.0M: 14.49 : 22.26 -0.52 : 122.48 -2.01 10.8M: 1290.3 $71.31 : $93.30 +0.65 : 117.25 -1.35/ 02, 038; 040, 300
16: 272.24 +1.14 44.7M: 13.55 : 22.29 +0.03 : 122.29 -0.19 4.86M: 1291.5 $71.49 : $93.32 +0.02 : 116.80 -0.45/ 04, 042; 028, 028,
17: 272.01 - 0.23 51.2M: 13.28 : 22.19 - 0.10 : 122.36 +0.07 7.74M: 1289.4 $71.49 : $93.45 +0.13 : 116.21 - 0.59/ 02, 044; 025, 353
18: 271.33 - 0.68 58.2M: 13.42 : 22.19 - 0.00 : 122.41 +0.05 6.51M: 1000.0 $00.00 : $93.66 +0.21 : 117.21  +1.00/
21: 273.37 +2.04 00.0M: 13.08 : 22.33 +0.14 : 122.48 +0.07 0.00M: 1290.9 $72.35 : $93.59 - 0.07 : 117.27 +0.06/
22: 272.61 - 0.76 46.9M: 13.22 : 22.13 - 0.20 : 122.41 - 0.07 4.41M: 1292.0 $72.20 : $93.57 - 0.02 : 117.09 - 0.18/
23: 273.36 +0.75 55.0M: 12.99 : 22.34 +0.21 : 122.54 -0.13 6.95M: 1289.6 $71.84 : $93.73 +0.16 : 117.94 +0.85/
24: 272.80 - 0.56 64.6M: 12.53 : 22.65 +0.31 : 123.59 +1.05 8.77M: 1304.4 $70.71 : $93.78 +0.05 : 118.88 +0.94/
25: 272.15 - 0.65 45.8M: 13.22 : 22.13 - 0.34 : 123.21 - 0.38 7.85M: 1303.7 $67.88 : $94.25 +0.47 : 119.62 +0.74/
29: 269.02 - 3.13 101.M: 17.02 : 22.15 +0.02 : 123.19 - 0.02 8.20M: 1299.0 $66.73 : $94.44 +0.19 : 122.24 +2.62/
30: 272.61 +3.59 63.0M: 14.94 : 22.44 +0.29 : 123.37 + 0.18 4.49M: 1306.5 $68.21 : $94.07 -0.37 : 121.42 - 0.82/
31: 270.94 - 1.67 78.4M: 15.43 : 22.34 -0.10 : 123.10 - 0.27 7.62M: 1304.7 $66.24 : $93.98 -0.09 : 121.22 - 0.20/ 00,74 : 000, 667
01: 273.60 +2.66 64.2M: 13.46 : 22.31 -0.03 : 122.49 - 0.61 7.65M: 1299.3 $65.01 : $94.16 +0.18 : 120.30 -0.92
==========

[drbubb]

Long Term Charts updated from time-to-time, to at least: April 30, 2017

Prices---- > YrE.'16 : YrE.'17 : change
Gold ------ : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% :
GLD ------ : 109.61 : 123.65 : +12.8% :
Ratio ------: r10.51 : r10.59 :
GDX ------ : $20.92 : $23.24 : +11.1% :
GDXJ ---- : $31.55 : $34.13 : +8.18% :
SLV-------- : $15.64 : $15.98 : +2.08% :
SHcomp : $0,000. : $3,307. :

IWM / etf for Russell-2000 - 12/31/16 : $134.85,  12/31/17 : $152.46 :

All-log : 10-yrs : 12mos // SPY ... : To-End-2015 : last-12mos

KEY CHARTS
===========

SPY / S&P500 etf - (UP) ...SPY: to 12/31/16 : $223.53,  12/31/17 : $266.86

All-log / 3yrs : 4yrs : 5yrs : 10yrs : TREND is still UP, but may be rolling over

SPX ... 10-yr

.
TLT / T-Bonds etf - (DOWN) ... TLT: to 12/31/16 : $119.13,  12/31/17 : $126.86

All / 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yr : Made an important Peak in 2016 (?) identified in prior chart here !

.
UUP / USDollar x2 etf - (Peaking?) ... to 12/31/16 : $26.46,,  12/31/17 : $24.03

All / 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yr : long ter, TREND is still UP,

.
USO / Oil etf - (Battling DOWNtrend) ... to 12/31/16 : $11.72, 12/31/17 : $12.01

All / 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yr : 10yrL : Price is battling that old Downtrend

.
XLE / Oil stocks - (Fighting back UP) ... to 12/31/16 : $75.32,  12/31/17 : $72.26

All-log / 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : TREND is still Up

.
OIH / Oil service - (Fight DOWNtrend) ... $11.72, 2016  ,  12/31/17 : $26.05

All-Log :  3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : Major Bottom in place?

.
GLD / Gold etf - (Reversing Downtrend?) ... 12/31/16 : 109.61,  12/31/17 : $123.65

All : 3yrs : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : Reversing to Up?

.
GDX / Gold stocks - (Breaking Downtrend?) ... 12/31/16 : $20.92,  12/31/17 : $23.24

GDX ... All-Log : 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : Reversed to Up in 2016 maybe?

.HUI Chart - price data goes back further ... 12/31/16 : 182.31, 2016 range: $99.19 to 286.05 : +199.4% - beta 7.64

All-data :

China's Shanghai index last bounced of a support level near 2,600
ShComp 12/31/16 : 3103.6, 2016 range: 2638.3 to 3538.7 : +34.12% - beta 1.305

CN : SHcomp ... All-Log : All-Data

===== other CHARTS =====

10yrs : SLV : GDXJ : / log : AGQ : PSLV : UGL : PHM +, GDXJ -, RGLD -, HK:HSI +, HK:12 -new,

[drbubb]

Gold's 4-6 months Cycle:

* added in edit, 5/3 : 6mo

4-6 month cycle low?

For months, I have been saying: "Low due near year-end maybe?"

"Next Cycle Low (in GDX) could be Dec. 2017" - it was! ... prior : update

Old chart - to Feb.2018

GLD, updated: 1-yr: 2-yr : 3-yr : update : prior / UK:GBS: $115.50/ HK-2840 : HK-3081:

HISTORY: The longer history of the cycles looked like this: 2013-15 :

: Low, Dec.15th,2016: 1129.8 / $103.04 = 10.96 / intraday: 1123/$103= 10.90

Look what happened after that Dec.2015 Low - a Nice Rally ! .....And then once again after a Dec. 2016 Low:

TMF (2x Bull etf of Long TBonds, like TLT)

These prices tend to move together : TMF, GDX, UGLD, SLV : Bonds, Gold stocks, Gold, and Silver.  And they have been moving in a shared 4-6 months cycle

TMF-etc... 2-yrs : 5-yrs : 6-mos : update / 10-d : prior month chart showed a divergence - but Gap of UGLD-TMF narrowed

TMF-etc.10d ... update: Chart below is updated to 5/01/2018

[drbubb]

BRADLEY Model : "TURN dates"

SPY... 2015-2018: 12-31-16: $223.53 / 12-29-17: $266.86 : +19.4%

2016 : +Jan. 5, -May 10, +June 1, -July 5, +??, -Sep. 28, +Nov. 29

2017 : +Dec. 29, -Apr.17, +Apr.29, -Jun.21, +Aug.19, -Sep.7, +Dec.3, /

2018  : -Jan.4, +Jan.17

Model for 2017-8?: 2017 : 2016 : 2015 :

===

Historical TURN: Bonds peaked first in 2015, then the Dollar, then stocks...

TLT... 2015-2018 : 12-31-16: $119.13 / 12-31-17: $126.86 : +6.49%

USD trade-weighted dollar:

DXY ... 2015-2018 : DXY-all-data : 12-31-16: $102.36 / '17: $92.28 : -9.72%

sym: ye.2016 : ye.2017 : %.chg : 2017-H :
SPY : $223.53 : $266.86 : +19.4% : 268.60 :
TLT : $119.13 : $126.86 : +6.49% : 129.57 :
DXY : $102.21 : $92.282 : -9.72% : 103.82 :
Djia  : $19,763 : $24,719 : +25.1% : 24,876 :
GLD-: $109.61 : $123.65 : +12.8% : 128.32 :
EUR-: $1.0520 : $1.2001 : +14.1% : 1.2093 :
Dj/E : E18,786 : E20,597 : +9.64% :
PHP-: P49.606 : P50.009 : +0.00% : 52.006 :
====

OTHER Indices : USO : GLD : GDX : PHM : IYR : UGLD-vsGDX : : IMGHST.co

[drbubb]

Bitcoin fell back, and its trying to re-establish a new uptrend

The 2-3 months cycle bottomed in early Feb... and may have bottomed again

Clif High thought the price would be at $13,000 in Feb. & will reach $64k - 100k during 2018, in next wave."

Recent BITCOIN prices over 5-days - Almost Live

Bitstamp -12month chart ... update .. 12 mo w/ Cycles - bottomed early Feb. & early Apr?

BTS ... 6mo : 3mo : 1mo : 1moS : 10dS : 5dS : 5dB : 2dB :

1mo : 1moS : 10dS : 5dS : 5dB : 2dB :

All-data : 8yr : 2yr :

=====

12/31: 0.5481 x13100+0000=7180:+070:13150Mar(3950):7208/(3950:54.8%)
01/31: 0.5955 x10240-(000)=6098/0079:10319Mar(1100):6145/(0500:08.1%):+0397:10637 +600
02/28: 0.6100 x10950-(- 50)=6680: -100:10950Mar(-800):6680/(-750:11.2%):+0100:11048 +025,-.007: 11.6
MAR
03/06: 0.6155 x10880-(200)=6696:+045:10925Mar -1600:6724/-2350:34.2%: --550:11085 +205, -.011: 11.7

04/21: 0.6900 x$8820- +200 =6086 +015:$8835Jun(+403):6096/(+603+9.89%):+0000:$8830 +010,-.000: 9.47
04/29: 0.6942 x$9407- +100 =6530 +010:$9417Jun(+203):6537/(+303+4.64%):+0000:$9,477 +070,-.000: 9.65
05/05: 0.6937 x$9846(+000) =6830 +238:10,084Jun(+003):6995/(+003+0.04%):+0000:10,131+285,-.000: 10.1H
======
-Bonus: 0.225 x12750=$3337; x10,084= $2269: 4726: H:4726 / New High! $10,084

 

[drbubb]

CRYPTO

China Confiscates 600 Computers For Mining Bitcoin

Kitco News10:45PM

Chinese authorities seized 600 computers used to mine bitcoin after a massive power surge was noticed in the local grid, according to media reports.

“[It was] the largest power theft case in recent years,” state news agency Xinhua quoted police as saying.

The seizure took place in the city of Tianjin, located in northern China. And police also confiscated “eight high-power fans,” the news agency added.

First reports of the incident were published last week, but it was unclear when the police seized all the equipment.

One person was detained in connection with the case and five others are still being investigated, Xinhua said.

China began its crackdown on cryptocurrency mining last year, but it is unknown how much equipment was confiscated since then.

According to a Reuters report, China’s local governments were given a free pass to dictate and limit power usage of bitcoin miners.

[drbubb]

Gold To Hit $1,800, ‘Overvalued’ Stock Market To Crash - Billionaire

Gold Inches Up After Touching 4-Month Low

Gold Remains Under Pressure Despite Disappointing ISM Numbers

Keeping most of your wealth in the stock market might not be a good idea, according to one Egyptian billionaire, who invested half of his $5.7 billion net worth into gold believing that prices could rise to $1,800 on “overvalued” stock market.

“The stock market is overvalued and I feel that another crash will happen. That is why 50 percent of my net worth is in gold. It’s a very high percentage and it was not half of my net worth when I started,” Naguib Sawiris told Bloomberg in an interview on Monday. “[Gold prices] should go back to five years ago, [when they were] at $1,700-$1,800.”

What made gold the right investment for Sawiris was its safety amid rising geopolitical risks as well as its unyielding demand.

“You have India and China and they are big consumers and they will not stop to consume. And people tend to go to gold when there are crises and we are full of crises — look at the Middle East and Mr. Trump isn’t helping,” Sawiris explained. “I am one of the largest investors in gold mining in the world right now. I had to convince my mom in the beginning. But, it has been a very good investment for me.”

But, not everyone is optimistic about gold right now, as the metal struggles to stay above $1,300.

. . . Spot gold was up 0.2 percent at $1,306.51 per ounce at 0118 GMT. Gold fell to $1,301.51 in the previous session, its lowest level since Dec. 29.

* U.S. gold futures for June delivery rose about 0.1 percent to $1,307.60 per ounce.

* The dollar index was steady near a four-month high at 92.446, supported by the outlook for a strong U.S. economy and rising yields amid signs of slowdown elsewhere, especially in Europe.

* The U.S. Federal Reserve is set to hold interest rates steady this week but will likely further encourage expectations that it will lift borrowing costs in June on the back of rising inflation and low unemployment.

* The U.S. economy is expanding at a 4.1 percent annualized rate in the second quarter as the government said construction spending fell in March and revised up its figure on building activity in February, the Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDPNow forecast model showed on Tuesday.

* SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings fell 0.51 percent to 866.77 tonnes on Tuesday from 871.20 tonnes on Monday.

. . .

The gold market has been ignoring most economic data as it is being weight down by surging momentum in the U.S. dollar. June gold futures last traded at $1,307.70 an ounce, down 0.86% on the day.

The components of the report showed broad-based weakness. The New Orders Index showed a reading of 61.2%, down from March’s reading of 61.9%; at the same time the Production Index dropped to 57.2%, down from the previous level of 61%.

The manufacturing labor market is also starting to lose momentum with the Employment Index dropping to 54.2%, down from March’s reading of 57.3%.

The report also showed a strong rise in inflation pressures; The Prices Index increased 79.2% in April up from the previous reading of 78.1. The report noted that inflation is at its highest level since April 2011.

Rising price pressures is positive for gold as it is sees as a hedge against higher inflation.

[drbubb]

Nenner: "Bond yields peaked at 3%, interest rates are going lower"

TNX... 10-yr. yield x 10, ie 30 =3.0% ... update

"I see the Dollar being strong again"

DXY... US Dollar, trade-weighted ... update

EUR... Euro ... update

Charles Nenner - Bloodbath Dow 5,000 Coming in 2020

Renowned geopolitical and financial cycle expert Charles Nenner the cycles are turning down, way down for the stock market. How bad will it be? Nenner says, “Very bad. I called for Dow Jones 5,000, and I still call for Dow Jones 5,000. . . .

It’s going to be a blood bath, but as I said the last time, in the 1990’s when the Dow was 5,000, the world still looked okay.” Is there a big debt reset coming? Nenner says, “The last time we were in this situation was when Roosevelt was President. It was very interesting because they paid off only 25% on the dollar because the inflation that came. Now, the problem is if you don’t have inflation, you still owe the whole amount of money. This is why they urgently need this inflation. So, the value of the money goes down, and you have to pay off less. There is no inflation. So, it is a big problem, but they can keep this going forever. I don’t think it’s a problem because countries can keep printing money as long as they want.” Then Nenner said, “I see the dollar becoming strong again.” Nenner is “dollar positive.”

The other big cycle Nenner has been seeing is the so-called “War Cycle.” Nenner says the next four or five years in this war cycle is very dangerous.” On gold and silver, Nenner is bullish, but “not until after this summer.”

 

SPX... s&p500 ... update

[drbubb]

gld / gold - fell back to an old gap / support level near $122-123

gld - update : 6mo / 10d :

6mo

4-6 month cycle low?

[drbubb]

Housing : Is the Mid-Cycle Correction underway?

Classic 18 year = 13-15 years Up + 3-5 years down

"Mid-way in the 14-years up", there is normally a brief (1-year?) mid-cycle correction

PHM Corp- the "bellwether" ... update / often leads Housing market by 6-12 months

18-year Housing Cycle might show rises out to 2023, or so

[drbubb]

Own Gold, when Housing stocks are weak?

dzz/2x gold bear - vs. phm... update

[drbubb]

Weekly : Oil to New highs (for the year)

==== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg :  01/05 :  02/02 :   03/02 :  03/29  :  04/27 : 05/04 :
Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1322.3 : 1337.3 : 1323.4 :  1327.3 : 1323.4 : 1314.7 :
GLD- : 109.61 : 123.65 : +12.8% : 125.33 : 126.39 : 125.39 : 125.79 : 125.50 : 124.54 :
SPY- : 223.53 : 266.86 : +19.4% : 273.42 : 275.45 : 269.08 : 263.15 : 266.56 : 266.02 :
SPX- : 2238.8 : 2673.6 : +19.4% : 2743.2 : 2762.1 : 2691.3 : 2640.9 : 2669.9 : 2663.4 :
Sp/Au 194.4%: 204.2%: ====== : 207.5%: 206.5%: 203.4% : 199.0%: 201.7% : 202.6% ;
Silvr : 16.580 : 17.150 : +3.44% :  17.285 : 16.710 :16.470 : 16.268 : 16.500 : 16.520 :
SLV- : $15.64 : $15.98 : +2.08% : $16.22 : $15.66 : $15.56 : $15.41 : $15.57 : $15.54 :
XLE : $75.32 : $72.24 : -4.09%: $74.97 : $72.46 : $66.95: $67.41: $73.82 : $73.85 :
WTIc: $53.72 : $60.42 : +12.4% : $61.44 : $65.45 : $61.25 : $64.94 : $68.10 : $69.72 :
Au/Wt:  r-21.4 :  r-21.7 : ====== :  r21.52 : r-20.43 : r21.61 : r-20.44 : r-19.43 : r-18.86 :
Ngas: $3.350 : $2.950 : - 11.9% : $2.795 : $2.850 : $2.690 : $2.730 : $2.770 : $2.710 :
Cop'r: $2.510 : $3.305 : +31.7% : $3.230 : $3.190 : $3.120 : $3.030 : $3.050 : $3.090 :
Weat : 408.00 : 426.25 : +4.47% : 430.75 : 446.75 : 500.00 : 451.00 : 498.50 : 526.25 :
Corn : 352.00 : 350.75 : - 0.36% : 351.25 : 361.50 : 385.25 : 387.75 : 398.50 : 406.25 :
CRB- : 192.51 : 193.86 : +0.07% : 193.45 : 197.44 : 194.12 : 195.36 : 201.39 : 203.25 :
DBA : $19.97 : $18.76 : -6.06%: $18.83 : $18.97 : $19.39: $18.18: $19.22 : $19.32 :
D/crb: 10.37% :  9.67% : ====== : 9.73%  :  9.61%  : 9.90% :  9.31% :   9.54% :  9.51% :
Xle/D: r-3.770 : r-3.850: +2.14%: r-3.981 : r-3.820 : r3.453 :  r-3.707 : r3.841 : r3.822 :
DXY- : 102.38 : $92.30 : - 9.85% : $92.01 : $89.19 :: $89.91 : $89.81 : $91.53 : $92.41 :
TLT- : 119.13 : 126.86 : + 6.49% : 125.71 : 119.58 :: 118.35 : 121.90 118.89 : 118.99 :
====
Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1322.3 : 1337.3 : 1323.4 : 1327.3 : 1323.4 : 1314.7 :
Au/hd: r1.401 : r1.58E : ====== : r1.584 : r-1.589 : r-1.587 : r-1.569 : r-1.519 : r-1.521 :
Hold : 822.17 : 830.00 : +01.0% : 834.86 : 841.35 : 833.98 :  846.12 : 871.20 : 864.13 :
GDX- : $20.92 : $23.24 : +11.1% : $23.67: $22.91 :  $21.49 : $21.98 : $22.73 : $22.65 :
WPM: $19.32 : $22.27 : +15.3% : $21.95 : $21.13 : $19.32 : $20.37 : $21.35 : $21.32 :
Gdxj : $31.55 : $34.13 : +8.18% : $34.48 : $32.29 : $31.73 : $32.15 : $33.03 : $33.55 :
PHM: $18.38 : $33.34 : +81.4% : $34.54 : $30.70 : $28.95 : $29.49 : $31.06 : $30.98 :
EEM- : $35.01 : $47.30 : +35.1% : $49.13 : $49.05 : $48.13 : $48.28 : $47.26 : $46.43 :
ShCm: 3103.7 : 3307.2 : +6.56% : 3391.8 : 3462.1 : 3254.5 : 3168.9: 3082.2 : 3091.0 :
PhpSi: 6840.6 : 8558.4 : +25.1% : 8770.0 : 8810.8 : 8458.6 : 7979.8: 7721.0 : 7546.2 :
XLF-  : $23.25 : $27.19 : +16.9% : $28.41 : $29.36 : $28.44 : $27.57: $27.70 : $27.27 :
IWM- : 134.85 : 152.43 : +13.0% : 154.75 : 153.83 : 152.35 : 151.83: 154.60 : 155.73 :
F/iwm 0.1724 : 0.1784 : =====  : 0.1836 : 0.1909 : 0.1867 : 0.1816 : 0.1791 : 0.1751 :
BTC-- : $948.5 : 13,100 : x13.8X : 15,840 : $8,800 : 11,117 : $7,401 : $9,230 : $9,593 :
==== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg :  01/05 :  02/02 :   03/02 :  03/29  : 04/27 : 05/04 :

Barrons Data : http://www.barrons.com/data?mod=BOL_TOPNAV_DATA

[drbubb]

Gold COT Report - Rally looks set to ROLL - as Large Specs start buying again !

( but there are some Bears obviously):

Hold On, Gold Is Not Done Falling - Phil Streible

May 04, 2018

Guest(s): Phillip Streible Senior Market Strategist, RJO Futures

The U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to raise rates at their next meeting in June, adding more downward pressure on gold, this according to Phil Streible, senior market analyst at RJO Futures.
“In June, [the Fed] should raise rates again. That’ll probably be another catalyst to put the pressure on. I think for longer-term traders, if you look at the ADX, which measure the strength of the downward trend, it’s at 40, which is a considerably strong downward trending ... (read more)

 

[drbubb]

A Disaster WARNING? 

That's how I regard this chart of DMCI, one of the major PH property developers

DMCI Holdings Inc. / DMC ... update

Keep an eye on DMC next week.

DMC looks set to break or test support at P 10.40 (next week?) and may soon test the 5-Year Low at P 9.00. If that gets broken too, it would be a very bad sign.  Investors seem to be losing confidence fast in the PH property developers. Not only in DMC.

DMCI  / DMCI Holdings- ... update / Last: P 10.80, pe: 9.91, yield: 2.59% - support: 10.40, 9.00

SMPH / SM Prime Hldg ... update / Last: P 32.40, pe: 33.9, yield: 0.15% - support: 31.00, 23.00, 14.00

ALI     / Ayala Land Inc.  ... update / Last: P 40.15, pe: 23.2, yield:  n/a-  - support : 39.00, 30.00, 23.00

MEG / Megaworld Corp ... update / Last: P  4.31, pe: 10.8, yield: 1.26% - support :

PSEI / Phil. Stock Index ... update / Last: P7,546.2. (range: 7,499.3 - 9.078.4) - support : 7,500,  7,000,  5,800

==

[drbubb]

With no letup in home prices, the California exodus surges...

The median sale price for a home in California is more than double that in the rest of the nation

Say goodbye to Hollywood, Billy Joel sang in 1976.

Now, in the midst of a deepening housing crisis, thousands of people are following that advice.

Over a million more people moved out of California from 2006 to 2016 than moved in, according to a new report, due mainly to the high cost of housing that hits lower-income people the hardest.

“A strong economy can also be dysfunctional,” noted the report, a project of Next 10 and Beacon Economics. Housing costs are much higher in California than in other states, yet wages for workers in the lower income brackets aren’t. And the state attracts more highly-educated high-earners who can afford pricey homes.

There are many reasons for the housing crunch, but the lack of new construction may be the most significant. According to the report, from 2008 to 2017, an average of 24.7 new housing permits were filed for every 100 new residents in California. That’s well below the national average of 43.1 permits per 100 people.

If this trend persists, the researchers argued, analysts forecast the state will be about 3 million homes short by 2025.

 

Read: Why aren’t there enough houses to buy?

What does it mean?

California homeowners spend an average of 21.9% of their income on housing costs, the 49th worst in the nation, while renters spend 32.8%, the 48th worst. The median rent statewide in 2016 was $1,375, which is 40.2% higher than the national average. And the median home price was — wait for it — more than double that of the national average.

One coping strategy: California residents are more likely to double up. Nearly 14% of renter households had more than one person per bedroom, the highest reading for this category in the nation.

Coping can also mean leaving.

[drbubb]

Junior Gold Miners are coming into a major "Pinch point" - Watch for breakout over $34 (this week?)

GDXJ / Jr. Gold Miners ... 10-yr : 5-yr : 3-yrW :  3-yrD : 12-mos / 10d - Last: $33.55 +0.07 : pe: n/a , yield: 0.03% (12mos: $29.69 - 37.75)

12-mos

JNUG - 12mos

==

[drbubb]

Individual Gold stocks are in pinch-points too

Like MUX : McEwen Mining ... 10yr : 3-yr : 3-mo - Last: $2.10 +0.03

3-mos

10yr

MUX website : http://mcewenmining.com/

Rob McEwen: We're In The Beginning Of A Bull Market

Mar 07, 2018 / Guest(s): Rob McEwen

We are entering the early stages of a commodities cyclical bull market that could last another 10-12 years, said Rob McEwen, Chairman of McEwen Mining.“This is an oversold sector, it’s very depressed, and we’re coming into to a cyclical upturn in commodities,” McEwen told Kitco News on the sidelines of the PDAC 2018.McEwen noted that while some of the major miners have negative growth curves in terms of projected production, it will be the juniors and intermediates that will “run with the show.” (show less)

PRESENTATION

HIGH BETA TO GOLD: 2.7x !

DAILY VOLUME : 3.5M AVG.

 

> Jan. 2018 interview: http://www.metalsnews.com/t1200266i

We learned from Mr. Rob McEwen, Chairman and Chief Owner of McEwen Mining, that the reason the company is looking to qualify for the S&P 500, which represents 80% of the equity capital in the country, is that they expect a big wave of investment in gold in the near term and the great bulk of the buying will go into gold stocks in the S&P 500.

 

> see new thread on MUX :

[drbubb]

Philippines Property Developer stocks are Falling... Why?

Partly, because the market is anticipating the higher CONDO SUPPLY & more housing that is pouring out in greater Manila over the next 1-3 years.

But more than that, is the Big Picture, global interest rates are rising.  We can see this in the following charts:

SMPH, ALI, & MEG vs. Rates / SM, Ayalaland & Megaworld vs. Rate etfs: Inverse Libor (DLBR) & 2x Bear on Bond rates (TMF)

Longer term, since... 10/07/2015 : SMPH : ALI : MEG / DLBR : TMF

Shorter term, since... 09/04/2016 : SMPH : ALI : MEG / DLBR : TMF

[drbubb]

‘Gold On Path To $1,450’ Despite Higher U.S. Dollar - BAML

Anna GolubovaSunday May 06, 2018 20:30

(Kitco News) - A commodity bull market is forming and gold has a big part to play, according to one Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAML) strategist.

This year, gold prices will rise past the $1,350-$1,375 resistance level, BAML technical strategist Paul Ciana told CNBC on Saturday. And from there, Ciana added, the yellow metal could hit $1,450, where it hasn’t traded at since May 2013.

“As soon as this $1,350 to $1,375 area goes, which I do think it will later this year mostly when the dollar rally kind of tempers itself and neutralizes, that puts gold on the path to $1,450 so plenty of room there,” Ciana said.

“Gold prices have been forming a six-year long base," Ciana said. “In the technical world we like to say, the bigger the base, the higher in space. That's what gold is doing.”

The yellow metal’s prices have faced significant downward pressure from the firming U.S. dollar these past few weeks, even ending last week in red for the third consecutive time.

[drbubb]

AN INNOVATIVE MOVE, that  i want to study some more...

Goldcorp Deposits the First Gold on Tradewind Blockchain

• Blockchain

VANCOUVER, March 29, 2018 /CNW/ - Goldcorp Inc. (TSX: G, NYSE: GG) ("Goldcorp") and Tradewind Markets, Inc. ("Tradewind"™), a financial technology company revolutionizing the way gold trades, announced that Goldcorp deposited the first gold onto Tradewind's blockchain, known as VaultChain™, as the "genesis block".  A genesis block is the first block in a blockchain and represents a tremendous milestone for blockchain technology.

Goldcorp's 3,000 ounce gold deposit, valued at US$4 million, originated from the storied Red Lake Gold Mines complex and is the first example of blockchain technology being used to record and manage physical precious metals in an institutional setting. Goldcorp will be able to sell gold directly to dealers and banks using the Tradewind platform, expanding access to a new market structure and a highly efficient, electronic pricing and liquidity venue.

"We are excited to be an investor in Tradewind and participate in the launch of VaultChain, a cutting-edge technology that integrates physical gold into a blockchain," said David Garofalo, President and CEO at Goldcorp. "We believe physical gold stored on a blockchain will increase the utility of the commodity and, ultimately, drive value in the price of gold.  We are thrilled to be an early adopter of this 21^st century platform and deposit its first bar of gold."

"We are pleased that the genesis block of VaultChain was created with Goldcorp. It is a demonstration of their leadership and vision as an innovator in the gold market and we thank them for their support in launching the Tradewind platform," said Matt Trudeau, President and co-founder of Tradewind. "We believe that our technology will enable gold producers like Goldcorp to overcome existing limitations and move into the electronic age."

Tradewind and Goldcorp will collaborate to continue building the platform and add value for producers, dealers, refineries and investors. Tradewind was a #DisruptMining finalist in 2017, the mining innovation accelerator designed to encourage new technologies and ideas to solve some of the biggest challenges in mining.

Mr. Garofalo added, "We believe Tradewind has the potential to change the gold investment industry like the introduction of ETFs did over 10 years ago."

About Goldcorp www.goldcorp.com 
Goldcorp is a senior gold producer focused on responsible mining practices with safe, low-cost production from a high-quality portfolio of mines.

About Tradewind
Tradewind has built a technology platform for digitizing the trading, settlement, and ownership of precious metals. The Tradewind solution combines world-class exchange technology with a blockchain application tailored for precious metals. Tradewind was incorporated in 2016 and is managed by a team of professionals with extensive experience in electronic trading, gold investment management, market operations and blockchain technology. For more information please visit https://tradewindmarkets.com.

[drbubb]

no more blue heaven, except in UK & US

argt ] Global X MSCI Argentina ETF (ETF)

psei / PSEi Index (INDEX) philippines

ukx /

spx /

==

[drbubb]

I Bought Nov $1.50 Calls @ $0.70

MUX : was about $2.07

 

[drbubb]

Oil and the dollar are doing something they have only done 11 times in the past 35 years

Published: May 9, 2018

Oil prices and the U.S. dollar are rallying in tandem—a dynamic that has only occurred 11 times since 1983, and it’s drawing the attention of market participants attempting to assess its significance.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange CLM8, +3.16% which is up 12.2% in the past month, according to FactSet data, has shaken off a 3.6% rally in the previously battered dollar, as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar Index DX, +0.00% according to FactSet data. Check out the recent chart below depicting the dollar gauge’s move and WTI’s climbs from Bespoke Investment Group:

Source: Bespoke Investment Group

 

The coordinated run-up is rare because a stronger dollar makes commodities priced in the currency more expensive to users of other currencies. So a stronger dollar tends to be a headwind for commodity prices.

The dollar index, after slumping nearly 10% in 2017 and starting off 2018 with further weakness, has been on the rebound, hitting a string of four-month highs. In part, that’s due to expectations the Federal Reserve is unflinchingly on track to deliver at least two, if not three, more rate increases in 2018. Higher rates can make the buck more attractive to investors looking to park money. The dollar gauge remains off 6.5% over the past 12 months, to be sure.

See: How much juice is left in the dollar rally?

Meanwhile, crude has rallied as production curbs instituted by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other major oil producers appears to have achieved the desired goal of absorbing a glut of crude that helped crush prices of both international benchmark Brent oil LCON8, +3.31% trading on the ICE exchanged and U.S. listed WTI back in 2014

> https://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-and-the-dollar-are-doing-something-they-have-only-done-11-times-in-the-past-35-years-2018-05-09?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts

[drbubb]

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The U.S. dollar remains on an impressive upswing against virtually all of its rivals, with a closely followed index hitting fresh four-month highs hitting a string of four-month highs. But how much juice is left in a rally inspired by rising interest rate expectations and weaker economic data elsewhere?

The ICE U.S. Dollar Index DXY, +0.02% a measure of the currency against six major rivals, topped the 93-level for the first time since December on Tuesday. The U.S. unit over the past several weeks was teased higher first by rising Treasury yields TMUBMUSD10Y, +0.85%  that reflected higher interest rate expectations, as well as by sluggish economic data outside the U.S., which weighed on its main rivals, including the euro.

 

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The fact that the European Central Bank wasn’t ready to sound a full-throated hawkish embrace of policy normalization at its last meeting, also helped the dollar, which in turn drew support from the interest rate-hiking Federal Reserve. Global macro indicators have also been pointing down, and when the rest of the world does badly, the dollar often rises.

In April, a seasonally weaker dollar month, the greenback gauge rallied 1.9%, its biggest monthly advance since November 2016. The index is up around 0.9% in the year to date but remains more than 6.5% below its level from a year ago.

Now market participants wonder whether all the good news is priced in, including the rediscovered love for the interest-rate differential story, which often drives movement by currency pairs.

“The dollar has indeed started to catch up to where it ‘ought’ to have been trading with regards to relative economic surprise indices,” wrote Nordea strategists Martin Enlund and Andreas Steno Larsen, in a note. Surprise indexes rise when data beats expectations and decline when it falls short.

 

Equally, “the last time the difference between the U.S. and [eurozone] surprise indices got as big as [this week],” which was in 2012, “the euro-dollar pair dropped by 8% on the quarter,” Enlund and Steno Larsen said.

If that happened again, it would leave the euro EURUSD, -0.0169% at $1.12 by July, compared with $1.1878 on Wednesday.