drbubb Posted December 11, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 11, 2018 MUX : Watching this with interest now it’s back at the lows. Whats knocking this Dr B, why the smack down? - Jerpy ===== MUX : 10yr : 4yr : 3yr : 12mo : Last $1.72 @ 12/11/18 / (since 7/2016): MUX-vs-GDXJ : MUX-vs-SPX : s I believe they are doing a fund-raising after a weak quarter... and there is likely to be some year-end tax selling now. I have some shares already. Far less than the GCM shares that I hold. Ratio to GCM ... is at Low for the year - but is still bit of a "falling knife" and looks headed to 75-76%, possibly lower if GCM breaks out Here's the MUX-to-GDXJ ratio: At about 8% could be a "cheap way into a GDXJ-type exposure" - if GDXJ flies, MUX could fly more If I add more, it will be through MUX Calls possibly. But I shall study it more first, because the relative weakness is not comforting And the stock has been called "overvalued" by some. We are probably seeing some "tax selling" now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jerpy Posted December 12, 2018 Report Share Posted December 12, 2018 Thanks for the feedback Dr B High on my watch list having sold off but will sit on hands awhile longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted December 13, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 13, 2018 Production and Costs (US$) Q3 YTD Full Year 2018 Guidance 2017 2018 2017 2018 Consolidated Production Gold (oz.) 19,051 33,806 61,338 105,834 128,000 Silver (oz.) 749,749 745,172 2,252,003 2,213,254 3,225,000 GEOs(1) 29,047 43,742 91,364 135,344 171,000 McEwen Mining misses by $0.01 SA News•Wed, Oct. 31•1 Comment McEwen Mining's (MUX) CEO Rob McEwen on Q3 2018 Results - Earnings Call Transcript SA Transcripts•Wed, Oct. 31•17 Comments McEwen Mining Inc. (NYSE: MUX) (TSX: MUX) today reported third quarter results for the period ended Sept. 30, 2018 (“Q3”). During Q3, gold equivalent ounces (GEOs) produced increased by 51% and all-in sustaining costs per GEO sold decreased by 3% compared to Q3 2017. Net cash flow from the business excluding project development costs was $2.2 million or$0.01 per share. Total expenditure of $35.5 million was incurred to further our long-term production growth plans at the Gold Bar, Black Fox, Fenix and Los Azules projects. Our consolidated net loss for Q3 was $13.3 million or $0.04 per share. During the first nine months of 2018, GEOs produced increased by 48% and all-in sustaining costs per GEO sold was unchanged compared to the same period in 2017. Net cash flow from the business excluding project development costs was $20.8 million or $0.06 per share. Total expenditure of $84.5 million was incurred to further our long-term production growth plans at the Gold Bar, Black Fox, Fenix and Los Azules projects. Our consolidated net loss for the first nine months of 2018 was$23.9 million or $0.07 per share. McEwen Mining announces $15M strategic financing McEwen Mining (MUX -0.3%) announces bought deal private placement offering of 6,634,000 flow-through shares, representing ~2% of its outstanding shares. The funding consists of $15M (~C$20M) at $2.26 per share (~C$3.02) that will be used for generative exploration activities for properties in the Timmins region. The offer price represents a premium of 26% over the closing price of McEwen on the TSX as of December 5, 2018. The offering is expected to close by December 21, 2018. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted December 14, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 14, 2018 MUX at or near a Buy point maybe? MUX -to-GDXJ Ratio : 6.14%... MUX ($1.74 -0.01) / GDXJ ($28.33 -0.04) == Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted December 19, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 19, 2018 Rob McEwen On Why The Next Gold Bull Market Is Already Underway Gold's bull market may go for 7-9 more years Published on 21 Nov 2018 There are few in the gold market who have seen and experienced more than Rob McEwen of McEwan Mining. Which is why we were fortunate to have him join Chris Marcus on Inside the Markets to explain what most in the investment community have yet to discover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted December 20, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 20, 2018 MUX has a High short interest - almost 30 days - vs. 2 d- NEM, x d- GG, x d- ABX > short-int. : http://shortsqueeze.com/?symbol=mux&submit=Short+Quote™ Sym : Price : MktCap: ShsOS : ShortOS: PctFlt. : Days : EstVol. : vs-High : vs200d : MUX : $1.70: $531.M : 257.M : 45.7 M : 17.8 % : 29.8d: 00.0M : - 56.2% : - 22.9 % : OOO : $0.00: $0.00 B : 00.0 bn : 000.0 M : 00.0 % : 00.0d: 00.0M : - 00.0 % : + 00.0 % : ===== Historical chart Biggest Short positions: http://online.barrons.com/mdc/public/page/2_3062-nyseshort-highlites.html Summary : most of those on the List are below 10 days. Includes: WFT (4d), RIG (8d), ESV (7d) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted December 23, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 23, 2018 MUX vs GLD (Gold etf) ... from 2.20.16 : MUX.vsMNT (CAD Gold etf) : / 2 / Ratio : MUX to-GLD == Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted December 31, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 31, 2018 2018's Big Gainer (GCM) is still by far the Cheapest of these three co.: ----- : GCM.t : ----- / ----- : - MUX- : ----- / ----- : -Mgeo- : ----- / ----- : - NGD - : ----- / Yr.: 2017 > 2018 : + pct. / 2017 > 2018 : + pct. / 2017 > 2018 : +pct. / 2017 > 2018 : +pct. / Q1: 39.0 > 52.7 :+00.0% / 20.0 > 35.1 :+75.5% / 29.7 > 44.3 :+49.1% / 61.0 > 96.9 :+58.9% / Q2: 46.1 > 52.9 :+00.0% / 22.2 > 37.0 :+66.6% / 32.6 > 47.3 :+45.1% / 79.0 > 109. :+37.4% / Q3: 37.1 > 57.2 :+00.0% / 19.1 > 33.8 :+77.0% / 29.0 > 43.7 :+50.7% / 29.5 > 77.5 :+163.% / Qe: 52.0 > 54.E :+00.0% / 48.6 > 22.E :- 53.3% / 61.0 > 36.E :- 41.5% / 110. > 100E :+00.0% / Yr.: 174. > 217. :+24.7% / 110. > 128. :+16.4% / 152.> 171.:+12.5% / 318* > 383. :+20.4% / *cont.operations, all ops. was 146k-q4 : 422k-2018 === 12: 174. > 217. :+00.0% / 110. > 128. :+00.0% / 152. > 171. :+00.0% / 422. > 383. :+00.0% / Pr : 1.54 > 2.03 :+00.0% / 2.28 > 1.84 :+00.0% / 2.28 > 1.84 :+00.0% / 3.29 > 0.76 :+00.0% / shs 20.5 > 48.2 :+00.0% / 337. > 337. :+00.0% / 337. > 337. :+00.0% / 565. > 579. :+00.0% / MC 31.5 > 100. +00.0% / 768. > 620. :+00.0% / 768. > 620. +00.0% /1.86b > 440. +00.0% / Db. 98.7 > 050. +00.0% / 00.5 > 000. :+00.0% / 00.5 > 000. +00.0% / 800. > 810. +00.0% / EV: 130. > 150. +00.0% / 769. > 620. :+00.0% / 769. > 620. +00.0% /2.66b >1.25b +00.0% //oz .75K > .69K -08.0%/7.00k>4.84k -30.9%/5.06k>3.63k -28.3%/ 6.30k> 3.26k -48.2% / NW 224. > 260. +00.0% / 521. > 495. :+00.0% / 521. > 495. +00.0% / 2.14b >1.68b +00.0% / BV: 10.9 > 5.40 :+00.0% / 1.55 > 1.47 :+00.0% / 1.55 > 1.47 :+00.0% / 3.78 > 2.90 :+00.0% / p/b 0.14 > 0.38 :+00.0% / 1.47 > 1.25 :+00.0% / 1.47 > 1.25 :+00.0% / 0.87 > 0.26 :+00.0% / ==== SUMMARY 1. GCM / Gran Columbian looks very cheap by comparison with the others + Tiny MktCap of $100M; that is only 38% of GCM's $5.40 Book Value + Adding debt, the Enterprize Value (EV) is only $150 Million + That's a tiny $690 per ounce of production: 217k oz, & growing + GCM is showing good Free Cash flow & profits - looks very cheap, performing well. 2. MUX / McEwen Mining has a well-regarded CEO with a big personal stake + Annual production was expected to grow by 16% 128k oz in 2018 + Adding gold equiv. from Copper, etc, 171k GEqv oz expected, up 12.5% over 2017 + Valuation looks stretched at $3,630 per oz. of GEO. That's down -28% from prior year. + But the Market has had confidence in MUX's ability to grow production in future years + 2019 should be another UP year in production, because... (Black Fox Mine is starting up?) + Has high historical beta to Gold prices, so could climb 2-4X faster than Gold 3. NGD / Newgold was a big loser in 2018, down -73%, highest drop among mid-producers + NGD's production costs @xxx were higher than expected. That caused price drop + NGD carries over $800M in debt, and so was forced the sell off two mines in 2018 + Valuation dropped sharply, so by year end... EV / oz. was down almost half to $3,260/oz. + Should be cheap enough to bring a bounce, if production keeps growing and the new management can bring some operational improvements. Gold price might help too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted January 17, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 MUX has been disappointing... with the share price under-performing peers recently MUX / McEwen Mining ... 5-yr : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted January 17, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 Production figures have been released for Q4 TORONTO, Jan. 15, 2019 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- McEwen Mining Inc. (NYSE: MUX) (TSX: MUX) reports annual consolidated production in 2018 was 135,124 gold ounces and 3,032,727 silver ounces, or 175,561 gold equivalent ounces(1)(“GEOs”). Consolidated Production Summary Q4 Full Year Full Year 2018 Guidance 2017 2018 2017 2018 Gold (oz) 48,609 29,291 109,947 135,124 128,000 Silver (oz) 926,739 819,473 3,178,742 3,032,727 3,225,000 GEOs(1) 60,965 40,217 152,329 175,561 171,000 (1) Using a 75:1 gold to silver ratio. (updating the Table): 2018's Big Gainer (GCM) is still by far the Cheapest of these three co.: ----- : GCM.t : ----- / ----- : - MUX- : ----- / ----- : -Mgeo- : ----- / ----- : - NGD - : ----- / Yr.: 2017 > 2018 : + pct. / 2017 > 2018 : + pct. / 2017 > 2018 : +pct. / 2017 > 2018 : +pct. / Q1: 39.0 > 52.7 :+00.0% / 20.0 > 35.1 :+75.5% / 29.7 > 44.3 :+49.1% / 61.0 > 96.9 :+58.9% / Q2: 46.1 > 52.9 :+00.0% / 22.2 > 37.0 :+66.6% / 32.6 > 47.3 :+45.1% / 79.0 > 109. :+37.4% / Q3: 37.1 > 57.2 :+00.0% / 19.1 > 33.8 :+77.0% / 29.0 > 43.7 :+50.7% / 29.5 > 77.5 :+163.% / Qe: 52.0 > 54.E :+00.0% / 48.6 > 22.E :- 53.3% / 61.0 > 36.E :- 41.5% / 110. > 100E :+00.0% / Yr.: 174. > 217. :+24.7% / 110. > 128. :+16.4% / 152.> 171.:+12.5% / 318* > 383. :+20.4% / Q4: 52.0 > 54.E :+00.0% / 48.6 > 29.3 :- 39.7% / 61.0 > 40.2 : - 34.1% / 110. > 100E :+00.0% / Yr.: 174. > 218. :+25.3% / 110. > 135. :+22.7% / 152.> 175.5:+15.2% / 318* > 383. :+20.4% / *cont.operations, all ops. was 146k-q4 : 422k-2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jerpy Posted January 18, 2019 Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 On 1/17/2019 at 4:21 PM, drbubb said: MUX has been disappointing... with the share price under-performing peers recently MUX / McEwen Mining ... 5-yr : Took the hit on this one last week before news release, which despite looking better, doesn’t seemed to have inspired the market. Is it the high short position that is controlling this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted January 18, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 18, 2019 MUX needs better news and some help from the Gold price. Very disappointing recently. If gold jumps above $1300, the shorts may get squeezed, something that boss McEwen would love to do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hector Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 I lent a hand to this today by buying half of my intended position. If it drops more I will acquire the other half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jerpy Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 54 minutes ago, hector said: I lent a hand to this today by buying half of my intended position. If it drops more I will acquire the other half. I’m waiting a bit longer but getting twitchy to jump back in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hector Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 6 minutes ago, jerpy said: I’m waiting a bit longer but getting twitchy to jump back in. I agree that the stock doesn't inspire confidence, but at the same time gold looks like it's proving itself so this will be a long term hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted January 30, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 I have some shares, and am not adding at the moment. The stock is not trading well. Maybe that will change if gold trades a bit higher, or if some positive news flow comes out. I do think McEwen's team is capable of producing good news and rising production, but there has been some months of drought in market-moving positive news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted February 5, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 5, 2019 If Gold keeps rising, MUX will have its day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted February 6, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 MUX has correlated with AG (First Majestic Silver) over time Including in the Big spikes of 2016... but recently they have both lagged many other Juniors AG - vs-MUX .... update : 10d / Last: $6.11 / $1.80 = R-3.39 Ratio: MUX -to-AG ... AG may be about to breakout of its historic connection to MUX (if MUX still lags) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted February 12, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 12, 2019 Your picks are on fire Dr B, shame I didn’t believe in GZZ, little bit like MUX. For me McEwan, the man himself seems a good guy watching videos, I’ve sent them an email to ask questions, just don’t believe in the stock right now and staying out but watching. Glad I followed your GCM and WM.t prompts though, particularly GCM. You’re much more disciplined about selling than I ever am, I suppose that comes with a cynical trading view. - Jerpy === 3 out of 4 is not bad, eh? GZZ is winning because of its large holding in RZZ, which I think is worth $13 or more. Can't get them all right. I'd be buying MUX now if it was performing better, and I could be more sure about future good news. Gold bar has been delayed a bit, but it should start up this month February 5, 2019 McEwen Mining Provides Update on Gold Bar Mine Start-Up Maybe MUX will benefit if/when the ounces start being produced and reported. But the new performance might be taken for granted. A big discovery near Gold bar or elsewhere would help. I have enough GCM, that I can afford to take some profits. But I am now sitting with more cash than I am accustomed to having. Seeking opportunities in Oil & Gas (yesterday's jump in O&G shares came a bit to quickly for me.) - And maybe in Silver-related calls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted February 14, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 14, 2019 TPRff (GCM in US$) to MUX ratio - May go a bit higher - above 180%, >190%? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hector Posted February 14, 2019 Report Share Posted February 14, 2019 Really surprised if this won't bust 1.82 resistance today given the robust gold price. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jerpy Posted February 15, 2019 Report Share Posted February 15, 2019 On 2/14/2019 at 1:40 PM, hector said: Really surprised if this won't bust 1.82 resistance today given the robust gold price. Maybe as Dr Bubb says, it just needed that little bit of help with the gold price. I’m back in today, nothing major but dipped a toe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted February 15, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 15, 2019 By the way, I added a "very useful" holding of Silver / SLV calls to my current TOP 5 - see charts: 5x WM.t : 0.245 UNCH, +0.00% : disappointing, still digesting recent up moves maybe Gcm.t : $4.07 +0.07, +1.75% GZZ.v : $0.37 +.025, +7.25% (rzz.v) : 12.90 +0.24, +1.90% Mux.t : 1.875 +.085, +4.75% SLV- : $14.83 +0.18, +1.23% (Sil-) : $26.72 +0.27, +1.00% (Gdxj): 32.84 +0.51, +1.58% (Gld): 124.85 +0.79, +0.63% Nice to see MUX getting a bid, at last ! - last $1.87. Close Over $1.95-2.00 will be a breakout of sorts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hector Posted February 20, 2019 Report Share Posted February 20, 2019 Probably enough time to the end of the month to break 2.00 resistance. Might end up congested at 2.20 unless gold keeps plowing through and breaks 1367 resistance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted February 22, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 22, 2019 Has the Short-covering started? MUX is starting to behave better MUX: $1.99 + $0.07, +2.65% on 2.7Million shares, on a day when GDXJ was - 2.01% Ratio: MUX -to-GDXJ Bottomed at 5.33%. Could it run up to 7.5% or so... maybe higher. If GDXJ stays at $33.72, then that would be: $2.52. MUX may need some good news to get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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