drbubb Posted January 3, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 3, 2019 (I explained a Timing issue in this entry in my Diary): BUYING NGD/Newgold Feb.$0.50 Calls ...was an end of the year trade. A bit like the Oil Service stocks*. (I thought we would see a shift from selling to buying in NGD, because it was : Biggest Loser of 2018, among Gold Miners: -73%.) Many were Selling during December to lock in Tax Losses. That pressure ends completely in the new year. And those who sold earlier may re-enter the stock, locking in a tax loss, and to establish a new position at Lower cost. === *Update on Oil Service stocks: YE'18 : OIH ( $14.03 ) vs. Drillers: RDC ( $8.39 ), MDR ( $6.54 ), ESV ( $3.56).10d / 01/02: $14.37 +2.42% vs. Drillers: $8.74 +4.17%, $7.16 +9.48%, $3.73, +4.78% - "... poised?", I asked. Let's see what happens to these stocks the coming days. OIH / Oil Service ... All-Data : 10yr : 5yr : 2yr : 6mo - 10d / YE'18-update / Last: $14.03 / YrL: $13.13, H: $29.86 == Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted January 3, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 3, 2019 2018's Big Gainer (GCM) is still by far the Cheapest of these three MUX vs. GCM (tprff), NGD & GDXJ ... 3-mos : fr. 10/1/18 : 9/5/2018 : co.: ----- : GCM.t : ----- / ----- : - MUX- : ----- / ----- : -Mgeo- : ----- / ----- : - NGD - : ----- / Yr.: 2017 > 2018 : + pct. / 2017 > 2018 : + pct. / 2017 > 2018 : +pct. / 2017 > 2018 : +pct. / Q1: 39.0 > 52.7 :+00.0% / 20.0 > 35.1 :+75.5% / 29.7 > 44.3 :+49.1% / 61.0 > 96.9 :+58.9% / Q2: 46.1 > 52.9 :+00.0% / 22.2 > 37.0 :+66.6% / 32.6 > 47.3 :+45.1% / 79.0 > 109. :+37.4% / Q3: 37.1 > 57.2 :+00.0% / 19.1 > 33.8 :+77.0% / 29.0 > 43.7 :+50.7% / 29.5 > 77.5 :+163.% / Qe: 52.0 > 54.E :+00.0% / 48.6 > 22.E :- 53.3% / 61.0 > 36.E :- 41.5% / 110. > 100E :+00.0% / Yr.: 174. > 217. :+24.7% / 110. > 128. :+16.4% / 152.> 171.:+12.5% / 318* > 383. :+20.4% / *cont.operations, all ops. was 146k-q4 : 422k-2018 === 12: 174. > 217. :+00.0% / 110. > 128. :+00.0% / 152. > 171. :+00.0% / 422. > 383. :+00.0% / Pr : 1.54 > 2.03 :+00.0% / 2.28 > 1.84 :+00.0% / 2.28 > 1.84 :+00.0% / 3.29 > 0.76 :+00.0% / shs 20.5 > 48.2 :+00.0% / 337. > 337. :+00.0% / 337. > 337. :+00.0% / 565. > 579. :+00.0% / MC 31.5 > 100. +00.0% / 768. > 620. :+00.0% / 768. > 620. +00.0% /1.86b > 440. +00.0% / Db. 98.7 > 050. +00.0% / 00.5 > 000. :+00.0% / 00.5 > 000. +00.0% / 800. > 810. +00.0% / EV: 130. > 150. +00.0% / 769. > 620. :+00.0% / 769. > 620. +00.0% /2.66b >1.25b +00.0% //oz .75K > .69K -08.0%/7.00k> 4.84k -30.9%/5.06k> 3.63k -28.3%/ 6.30k> 3.26k -48.2% / NW 224. > 260. +00.0% / 521. > 495. :+00.0% / 521. > 495. +00.0% / 2.14b >1.68b +00.0% / BV: 10.9 > 5.40 :+00.0% / 1.55 > 1.47 :+00.0% / 1.55 > 1.47 :+00.0% / 3.78 > 2.90 :+00.0% / p/b 0.14 > 0.38 :+00.0% / 1.47 > 1.25 :+00.0% / 1.47 > 1.25 :+00.0% / 0.87 > 0.26 :+00.0% / ==== Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted February 12, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 12, 2019 SILVER related Charts SIL ($26.35) - vs SLV, GLD ... update : SLV ($14.72, r-1.79) vs. SIL, GLD ($123.60) & UGL ($38.53, r-38.2%) Ratio : SIL-to-SLV : 1.79 SLV ($14.72,) vs. SIL, GLD ($123.60) & UGL ($38.53, r-38.2%) Ratio: SLV -to-UGL (r-38.2%) David Morgan - Silver Will Shine Again Kerry Lutz - audio MP3 : mms://media.kitco.com/weeklyreport/DavidMorgan07Feb19.mp3 SILVER should outpace Gold ... on the upside "Last month, gold rose 3.46%. Silver rose 3.94%. That’s only about 14% better, but the point is that this pattern is the norm, not the exception, when precious metals are rising. The last time precious metals prices were really on a tear, silver outperformed gold even more: From the bottom of the crash of 2008, London PM gold rose from $713.50 to $1,895 in September of 2011. Gold was up 165.6%. From the same starting point, London PM silver rose from $8.88 to $48.70 in April of 2011. Silver was up 448.4%—and in less time. This is why I’ve said that if you’re a gold bull—which I am this year—you should be a raging silver bull." > https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-02-08/Silver-Not-Just-the-Poor-Man-s-Gold.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted February 14, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 14, 2019 Gold has broken the downtrend & Resistance at $1300 / Might SIL (silver share etf) be next to breakout? GLD (gold etf) versus SIL ... update : $123.37, $26.13 Ratio: $26.13 / $123.37 = 21.2 == Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted February 28, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 28, 2019 SOXX Shock! : -1.20%. Has the stock market turned? 183.63 Change: -2.23 Open: 185.11 High: 185.11 Low: 181.6301 Volume: 980,095 Percent Change: -1.20% SOXX led the stock market up. Will it now lead it down? SPY fell just -0.04%. IWM rose +0.14% SOXX - etc ... 10d Top Holdings, as SOXX closed at $183.63 - 2.230, -1.20% SOXX led the stock market up. Will it now lead it down? Name Symbol % Assets Broadcom Inc : AVGO 8.94% $271.49 - 3.51, -1.28% Texas Instruments : TXN 7.98% $105.71 - 1.56, -1.45% Intel Corp : INTC 7.56%. $53.24 +0.01, +0.02% NVIDIA Corp : NVDA 6.96% $155.25 - 1.69, -1.08% Qualcomm Inc : QCOM 6.73% $53.04 +0.01, +0.02% Xilinx Inc. : XLNX 4.79% $123.27 +0.49, +0.40% Adv. Micro Devices : AMD 4.54% $23.48 - 0.73, -3.02% Lam Research : LRCX 4.28% $177.20 - 1.36, -0.76% Analog Devices : ADI 4.26%. $105.24 - 1.24, -1.17% Applied Materials. : AMAT 4.15%. $38.78 - 0.80, -2.02% SOXX is looking toppy And AMD, Advanced Micro Devices, too. AMD was down over 3% yesterday, the biggest drop among the Top10 components of the SOXX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted March 4, 2019 Author Report Share Posted March 4, 2019 TURNING Up (like Sh.Composite), or Rolling Down, like SLV might be doing now Three Different Prices ... update : 10d : Cycles - between Silver & Shanghai stocks NOT SURE how useful this indicator will be, but I may follow it for a while. They should both respond to monetary inflation, and China has been showing a dramatic loosening : 10d : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted March 14, 2019 Author Report Share Posted March 14, 2019 SLV looks likely to retest $14. SIL to retest $25.50-25.70? SLV / Silver etf ... update : 6mo : $14.24 -$0.27, -1.86% vol. 7.57M, Yield: n/a, PER: n/a SIL vs SLV/ Silver Shares vs. Silver ... update : 6mo : $26.28 -$0.59, -2.20% vol. 164.5k, Yield: 1.16%, PER: n/a Ratio: SIL to-SLV : $26.28 / $14.24 = R-1.00? == Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted April 1, 2019 Author Report Share Posted April 1, 2019 US Dollar - is the Big Slide finally due? I am watching to see if there is a breakdown in these charts > Below $97 & then $96? DXY / Trade-weighted US Dollar... 3-yrs / 10d - Last: $97.06 - 0.17 / 10d Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted April 26, 2019 Author Report Share Posted April 26, 2019 HOWZAT? A good day for gold & gold shares xx GDP Numbers Show Gold Is Learning To Live Without U.S. Dollar: Kitco News03:40PM Interest In Gold Is Growing Among Generalist Investors – Kitco News04:25PM Forget The Fed, Commodities Now In Focus At Jekyll Island Conference Kitco News04:09PM Why Is Gold Up When The U.S. Economy Grew 3.2%? Dive Deeper, Kitco News == Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted May 29, 2019 Author Report Share Posted May 29, 2019 GOLD BACK So far, OVER that Gap down ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted September 1, 2019 Author Report Share Posted September 1, 2019 ROLLING OVER? A Big Drop Ahead ! PSEI / Philippines Stock Exchange Index ... update : 10d / Last: 7.761.54 -127.87. Late Aug. It rose into 8/30. Philippines PSEI / Possible Right Shoulder now in place at 8400, w/ recent rallyback to 8000 PSEI ... update : with Prop.Dev'l : 10d / Last: 7,980 + 87, + 1.10% Major property developers ROSE to a NEW PEAK at the time of the recent possible Right Shoulder PSEI Index vs- SMPH, ALI, & MEG ... 3-years / PSEI peak=early 2018. Property peak= July 2019 If the August low in PSEI gets taken out by a meaningful amount, then it would be a very bad sign for Philippines stocks The recent serious weakness in Property developer stocks is a sign that an important downturn may be underway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted November 28, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 28, 2019 GOLD ready to move up soon? GOLD vs Bonds, including TIPS (inflation protected bonds) Made valuable discovery today, on what drives Gold price - Last week Tips Led?: GLD ($132.14) vs TLT ($132.44) from 5.Jul.19 : 10d / GLD:$137.06 / TLT:$135.00= Gap:$2.06, r-101.5% UPDATED: / GLD:$137.01 / TLT:$140.72= Gap:($3.71) r-97.41%... was: Gap:$2.06, r-101.5%, Gap swung by $5.76 ! RATIO & Gap:($3.71) r-97.41% But a GLD-TLT GAP Straddle: ie Buy GLD-Call / Sell TLT-Put ?? Such as: ... GLD:$137.01 / TLT:$140.72= Gap:($3.71) r-97.41% ======: 142C: 142P=strad / 140C: 140P=strad / 138C: 138P=strad / 136C: 136P= strad / GLD-Ja.: 0.66+ 5.35= $6.01 / 1.05+ 3.70= $4.75 / 1.67+ 2.31= $3.98 / 2.64+ 1.26= $3.90 / TLT -Ja1:1.28+ 2.83= $4.11 / 2.18+ 1.71= $3.89 / 3.42+ 0.95= $4.37 / 5.05+ 0.50= $5.55 / TLT -Ja. : 1.68+ 3.15= $4.83 / 2.61+ 2.03= $4.64 / 3.83+ 2.03= $5.86 / 5.30+ 0.74= $6.04 / G.c /T.p : 0.66+ 2.83= $3.49 / 1.05+ 2.03= $3.08 / 1.67+ 2.03= $3.70 / 2.64+ 0.74= $3.38 / GLD-Fb.: 1.32+ 5.80= $7.12 / 1.80+ 4.25= $6.05 / 2.47+ 2.88= $5.35 / 3.40+ 1.80= $5.20 / TLT -Fb.: 2.38+ 3.83= $6.21 / 3.33+ 2.74 = $6.07 / 4.55+ 1.93= $6.48 / 5.88+ 1.35= $7.23 / G.c /T.p : 1.32+ 3.83= $5.15 / 1.80+ 2.74 = $4.54 / 2.47+ 1.93= $4.40 / 3.40+ 1.35= $4.75 / ======:$139 strads: Jan./ exp. 1/17/20 : 51 days-/ Feb./ exp. 2/21/20: 86 days- / ======: 139C: 139P=strad / x sqrt. 37.3%/ 139C: 139P=strad / x sqrt. 48.5% / > GLD- : 1.32+ 2.97= $4.29 / 3.09%: 8.27%/ 2.11+ 3.53= $5.64/ 4.06%: 8.36%/ > TLT - : 2.78+ 1.28= $4.06 / 2.92%: 7.83%/ 3.88+ 2.33= $6.21/ 4.47%: 9.21%/ G.c /T.p: 1.32+ 1.28= $2.60/ 1.87%: 5.01%/ 2.11+ 2.33= $4.44/ 3.19%: 6.59%/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted March 8, 2020 Author Report Share Posted March 8, 2020 HOW to Hedge a Gold position with Bond options (use Calls on TMV) TMV/20yr TBond 3xBear vs- dGLD & dSLV .. fr. 2015: 10.6.19: 5yr: 2yr: 1yr: 6mo: 10d / $6.09 -1.13, $20.88, $16.71 : 10.6.19: 5yr: 2yr: 1yr: 6mo: 10d 10d : TLT-Gld-Slv-10d / $6.09 -1.13, $20.88, $16.71 // $166.77 +8.25, $157.55 +0.05, $16.18 -0.12 : TLT-Gld-Slv-10d / $166.77 +8.25, $157.55 +0.05, $16.18 -0.12 Gold & Bonds have shot up, while Silver has lagged - Gold-to-Silver ratio is up near the 100x High. : SLV-Gld-Tlt- 5yr : 1yr: 3mo / TLT: $166.77 / SLV: $16.18 = Ratio : SLV-Gld-Tlt since sep.2018 : SLV-Gld-Tlt-10d : 5yr / $16.18 -0.12, $157.55 +0.05, $166.77 +8.25 Ratio: TLT to-SLV: 10.3x , Has shot up since beginning of 2020, as Bond yields dropped Sometimes Silver Dropped when Bonds went up... But then Silver Rose when Bonds dropped == Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted July 26, 2020 Author Report Share Posted July 26, 2020 NEAR A TOP? He sees a Top in Silver coming at $24-26. And then a 6-9 months correction, and a Stock bear market "Stocks could rollover from a double top within the next month. Then, as stocks fall, Gold and silver will rollover too." After the correction in silver, it will be ready for a really huge move to $48 and beyond. Chris Vermeulen: Caution Advised Before Gold Targets $5000 and Silver Targets $100+ He also sees the USD falling and is "in a major downtrend" ... to Major Support at $93-94... then a big bounce SPX "we are about to fill the last gap on the SPX. we are only 2.5% away. When we do that, stocks could head into something very bad on the downside' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted October 22, 2020 Author Report Share Posted October 22, 2020 GLD ($132.14) vs TLT ($132.44: r-100%) from 5.Jul.19 : Oct-19: 10d / 10.21.20: GLD:$180.60 / TLT:$158.70= r-113.8% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted November 25, 2020 Author Report Share Posted November 25, 2020 Is the Slide in Precious Metals finished? GLD ... YTD: 10d / Last: 169.59 -2.64, -1.53%. LOD: 168.86 vs yrH: 194.44, -13.2%- Last move up: 136 > 194.4 = 58.4. (194.4- 168.9= 25.5): -43.7% SLV ... YTD: 10d / Last: $21.63 -0.30, -1.37%. LOD: $21.41 vs yrH: $27.39, -31.8% Last move up: $18. > $27.4 = $9.4. $27.4- $21.4= 6.0): -63.8% == Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted July 23, 2021 Author Report Share Posted July 23, 2021 update / top $2,089 / $194.45= r10.74 = Gold: $1,891 /178.56= r10.59, LTPZ: 88.62 =2,01x, UGL:$68.2 at 12.31.20 / Gold: $1,830 / GLD: $172 =r10.63, 5.11.21 > $1,804 / $169 = r10.67, LTPZ: $88.5 =1.91x UGL: 59.27 at 7.22.21 chart#2: LTPZ: $88.7 / UGL: 59.27 = r1.49x at 7.22.21 LTPZ : $88.7 vs, Yr.H: $90.07 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted August 6, 2021 Author Report Share Posted August 6, 2021 GBS.L / Gold etf ... update / Last; GBS- $167.77 London Gold etf = $1,800 Are we in a Blue Box (peaking formation), or a Green Box (continuation)? current action looks like both. Probably GREEN, because we are not so far from an important Low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted August 25, 2021 Author Report Share Posted August 25, 2021 SLV / Silver vs DBA / Agri ... Oct.2011 : 5yr : 2yr / +SIL : 6mo-w/SIL: 4.3.22: SLV: $22.70 / DBA: $22.01 w/ XLE : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted May 6, 2022 Author Report Share Posted May 6, 2022 BONDS : LQD vs TLT. .... from: Dec.2017: mid-2019: 5yr: 2yr: 1yr: 10d: / 30Yr.Yield LQD : Investment Grade Corp. Bond ETF. : 111.76 -1.74, -1.36% TLT : iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF : 115.37 -3.25, -2.74% . In fact there was a huge 5point, drop followed by a 1.36 point rally, that's 27% rally. A big gap down is still intact LQD was down big, but less violently than TLT. These are both big trades. TLT has 48.36 Million volume; and LQD had 34.35 Million RATIO Longer term rates squirted up... Now over 3% TYX / CBOE 30 Year Treasury Bond Yield Index ... Dec.2017: mid-2019: 5yr: 1yr: 10d / Last: 3.16% / 31.60 + 1.60, / 30Yr.Yield mid-2019: 10d / 3.16% / 31.60 + 1.60, === Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drbubb Posted November 2, 2023 Author Report Share Posted November 2, 2023 GLD vs. UGL : from Nv.2019: UGL: 59.84 /GLD: 183.51= 32.6%; AGQ: 25.78 /SLV: 20.97= 122.9%. SIL: 23.95 SLV vs. AGQ : from Nv.2019: AGQ: 25.78 /SLV: 20.97= 122.9%. SIL: 23.95 update / GLD: top $2,089 / $194.45= r10.74 = ===== Date = : GLD : Gold : Ratio: XLE : TLT : LTPZ : TIP : TYX : 8.07.20 : 190.81: 2,060: 10.80: 37.18 : 169.9 : 88.55: 126.2: 1.23% 5.04.23 : 190.77: 2,039: 10.69: 78.11 : 105.2 : 60.90: 110.0: 3.72% 10.30.23: 185.10: 1,998 : 10.79: 84.91: 83.99: 50.43: 103.1: 5.04% 11.01.23 : 183.51: 1,986 : 10.82: 84.99: 85.10: 51.08: 103.2: 4.98% LTPZ: 51.08 + 1.30, +2.6% Gold Gbs / Usd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
webmaster Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 TMF(tlt)-ugl-hod, >Aug.'23: Flip-HOD: UGL is a 2X Gold etf. GLD and UGL are holding up well. And I think they may continue to do that so long as TMF (leverage etf on bonds) remains in its up-channel. Having said that, HOD is a Bear etf on oil, and rising oil / falling HOD - could undermine Bonds and Gold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
webmaster Posted January 27 Report Share Posted January 27 UPDATING Gold/ Silver vs. Bonds (original) GOLD to SILVER ratio recently hit a Record High of 100x. I still like silver. Supported by rising Bonds (TLT), and TIP Bonds (LTPZ) GLD vs.: SLV, / TLT, & LTPZ ... from 10.May.2020 : $154.16, TLT:$154.67 / SLV:$16.09, LTPZ: $80.67 === Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
webmaster Posted January 30 Report Share Posted January 30 Gold stocks are lagging UGL (2x Gold). I has been hard to rise, when TLT/ Bonds are weak GDX (28.36) vs. UGL (61.46): Ratio-46.14% GDX-UGL, tlt ($94.86) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
webmaster Posted February 25 Report Share Posted February 25 CLOSE-up: GLD ($188.62) vs SLV ($20.99), TLT ($93.87)... 2022: Jul.23: Ytd: IWM / Russell-2000 vs. SPX, TLT/ Bonds ... 2000: 2009: UPDATING Gold/ Silver vs. Bonds === Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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