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INFLATION & RATE etfs, updated: 12.18.23, 4.07%

/ DBA (21.02)XLE (84.18, r4.00x), OIH (307.92, r14.65), TYX (40.69, r1.94x)

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/ DBA (21.02)XLE (84.18, r4.00x), OIH (307.92, r14.65), UDN (18.18)

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GDXJ - OIH  vs UDN, SLV ... fr.1/2008 w/Dba : 7/2008 w/Dba :  updated: 12.18.23

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===
Year End price Recap

Prices---- > YrE'16 : YrE'17 : change :  YrE'18 : change :
Gold ------ : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1281.3 : - 2.15% :
GLD ------ : 109.61 : 123.65 : +12.8% : 121.25 : - 1.94% :
Ratio ------: r10.51 : r10.59 : ====== : r10.567 : ===== :
GDX ------ : $20.92 : $23.24 : +11.1% : $21.09 : - 9.75% :
GDXJ ---- : $31.55 : $34.13 : +8.18% : $30.22 : - 11.5% :
SIL -------- : $32.11 : $32.64 : +1.65% : $25.02 : - 23.3% :
SLV-------- : $15.64 : $15.98 : +2.08% : $14.52 : - 9.14% :
Ratio ------: r2.053 : R2.043 : ====== : R1.723 : ===== : :
WTI ------- : $53.72 : $60.42 : +12.5% : $45.41 : - 24.8% :
USO ------- : $11.72 : $12.01 : +2.47% : $ 9.66 : - 19.6% :
OIH ------- : $33.25 : $26.05 : - 21.7% : $14.03 : - 46.1% :
XLE ------- : $75.32 : $72.26 : - 4.06% : $57.35 : - 20.6% :
SHcomp : $3,104. : $3,307 : +6.54% : $2,494 : - 24.6% :
=======

Many Gold shares are "COILED & Ready to spring" - if the Dollar slides below $97

http://www.weblinks247.com/indexes/idx24_usd_en_2.gif  : t24_au_en_usoz_6.gif :

USD Index/DXY: $96.11 -0.29 : Gold : $1282.10 +1.70 ...

DXY/ Trade-wgt $/12mo : DXY: $96.17, EUR: $1.147, GBP: $1.275, CAD: $0.737, AUD: $0.704, PHP: 52.50 (FYE'18)

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FXFX : 2017-19.Q2 :

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Group #1 : update JNUG ($9.76), UGLD ($94.65), GDXJ ($31.79)

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Group # 2: update : GCM.t ($3.52), CCO.t ($15.56), MUX.t ($2.02)

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OIH ($17.99) vs. Drillers: RDC ($11.13), MDR ($8.37), ESV ($4.03) .10d /

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==

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(I explained a Timing issue in this entry in my Diary):

BUYING NGD/Newgold Feb.$0.50 Calls

...was an end of the year trade. A bit like the Oil Service stocks*.
(I thought we would see a shift from selling to buying in NGD, because it was :  Biggest Loser of 2018, among Gold Miners: -73%.)
Many were Selling during December to lock in Tax Losses. That pressure ends completely in the new year.
And those who sold earlier may re-enter the stock, locking in a tax loss, and to establish a new position at Lower cost.

===

*Update on Oil Service stocks:

YE'18 : OIH ( $14.03 )  vs. Drillers: RDC ( $8.39 ), MDR ( $6.54 ), ESV ( $3.56).10d /
01/02: $14.37 +2.42% vs. Drillers: $8.74 +4.17%, $7.16 +9.48%, $3.73, +4.78%

- "... poised?", I asked.  Let's see what happens to these stocks the coming days.

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OIH / Oil Service ... All-Data : 10yr : 5yr : 2yr : 6mo - 10d / YE'18-update / Last: $14.03 / YrL: $13.13, H: $29.86

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==

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2018's Big Gainer (GCM) is still by far the Cheapest of these three

MUX vs. GCM (tprff), NGD & GDXJ ... 3-mos : fr. 10/1/18 : 9/5/2018 :

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co.: ----- : GCM.t : ----- / ----- : - MUX- : ----- / ----- : -Mgeo- : ----- / ----- : - NGD - : ----- /
Yr.: 2017 > 2018 : + pct. / 2017 > 2018 : + pct. / 2017 > 2018 : +pct. / 2017 > 2018 : +pct. /
Q1: 39.0 > 52.7 :+00.0% / 20.0 > 35.1 :+75.5% / 29.7 > 44.3 :+49.1% / 61.0 > 96.9 :+58.9% /
Q2: 46.1 > 52.9 :+00.0% / 22.2 > 37.0 :+66.6% / 32.6 > 47.3 :+45.1% / 79.0 > 109. :+37.4% /
Q3: 37.1 > 57.2 :+00.0% / 19.1 > 33.8 :+77.0% / 29.0 > 43.7 :+50.7% / 29.5 > 77.5 :+163.% /
Qe: 52.0 > 54.E :+00.0% / 48.6 > 22.E :- 53.3% / 61.0 > 36.E :- 41.5% / 110. > 100E :+00.0% /
Yr.: 174. > 217. :+24.7% / 110. > 128. :+16.4% / 152.> 171.:+12.5% / 318* > 383. :+20.4% /
*cont.operations, all ops. was 146k-q4 : 422k-2018
===
12: 174. > 217. :+00.0% / 110. > 128. :+00.0% / 152. > 171. :+00.0% / 422. > 383. :+00.0% /
Pr : 1.54 > 2.03 :+00.0% / 2.28 > 1.84 :+00.0% / 2.28 > 1.84 :+00.0% / 3.29 > 0.76 :+00.0% /
shs 20.5 > 48.2 :+00.0% / 337. > 337. :+00.0% / 337. > 337. :+00.0% / 565. > 579. :+00.0% /
MC 31.5 > 100. +00.0% /  768. > 620. :+00.0% / 768. > 620. +00.0% /1.86b > 440. +00.0% /
Db. 98.7 > 050. +00.0% /  00.5 > 000. :+00.0% / 00.5 > 000. +00.0% /  800. > 810. +00.0% /
EV: 130. > 150. +00.0% /  769. > 620. :+00.0% / 769. > 620. +00.0% /2.66b >1.25b +00.0% /
/oz .75K > .69K -08.0%/7.00k> 4.84k -30.9%/5.06k> 3.63k -28.3%/ 6.30k> 3.26k -48.2% /
NW 224. > 260. +00.0% /  521. > 495. :+00.0% / 521. > 495. +00.0% / 2.14b >1.68b +00.0% /
BV: 10.9 > 5.40 :+00.0% / 1.55 > 1.47 :+00.0% / 1.55 > 1.47 :+00.0% / 3.78 > 2.90 :+00.0% /
p/b 0.14 > 0.38 :+00.0% / 1.47 > 1.25 :+00.0% / 1.47 > 1.25 :+00.0% / 0.87 > 0.26 :+00.0% /
====

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SILVER related Charts

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SIL ($26.35) - vs SLV, GLD ... update : SLV ($14.72, r-1.79) vs. SIL, GLD ($123.60) & UGL ($38.53, r-38.2%)

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Ratio : SIL-to-SLV : 1.79

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SLV ($14.72,) vs. SIL, GLD ($123.60) & UGL ($38.53, r-38.2%)

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Ratio: SLV -to-UGL (r-38.2%)

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David Morgan - Silver Will Shine Again Kerry Lutz - audio

MP3 : mms://media.kitco.com/weeklyreport/DavidMorgan07Feb19.mp3

SILVER should outpace Gold ... on the upside

"Last month, gold rose 3.46%. Silver rose 3.94%. That’s only about 14% better, but the point is that this pattern is the norm, not the exception, when precious metals are rising.

The last time precious metals prices were really on a tear, silver outperformed gold even more:

  • From the bottom of the crash of 2008, London PM gold rose from $713.50 to $1,895 in September of 2011. Gold was up 165.6%.
  • From the same starting point, London PM silver rose from $8.88 to $48.70 in April of 2011. Silver was up 448.4%—and in less time.

This is why I’ve said that if you’re a gold bull—which I am this year—you should be a raging silver bull."

> https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-02-08/Silver-Not-Just-the-Poor-Man-s-Gold.html

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Gold has broken the downtrend & Resistance at $1300

Might SIL (silver share etf) be next  to breakout?

GLD (gold etf) versus SIL ... update : $123.37, $26.13

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Ratio: $26.13 / $123.37 = 21.2

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==

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SOXX Shock! : -1.20%. Has the stock market turned?

183.63
Change:
arrow -2.23
Open:
185.11
High:
185.11
Low:
181.6301
Volume:
980,095
Percent Change:
-1.20%

SOXX led the stock market up. Will it now lead it down?

SPY fell just -0.04%.  IWM rose +0.14%

SOXX - etc ... 10d

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Top Holdings,     as SOXX closed at $183.63 - 2.230, -1.20%

SOXX led the stock market up. Will it now lead it down?

Name                        Symbol  % Assets
Broadcom Inc         :  AVGO    8.94%    $271.49 - 3.51, -1.28%
Texas Instruments :  TXN      7.98%    $105.71 - 1.56, -1.45%
Intel Corp                 :  INTC     7.56%.      $53.24 +0.01, +0.02%
NVIDIA Corp            : NVDA     6.96%    $155.25 - 1.69, -1.08%
Qualcomm Inc         : QCOM    6.73%      $53.04 +0.01, +0.02%
Xilinx Inc.                 :  XLNX     4.79%    $123.27 +0.49, +0.40%
Adv. Micro Devices :  AMD      4.54%      $23.48 - 0.73, -3.02%
Lam Research          :  LRCX    4.28%    $177.20 - 1.36, -0.76%
Analog Devices        :  ADI        4.26%.   $105.24 - 1.24, -1.17%
Applied Materials.   :  AMAT    4.15%.     $38.78 - 0.80, -2.02%

SOXX is looking toppy

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And AMD, Advanced Micro Devices, too. 

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AMD was down over 3% yesterday, the biggest drop among the Top10 components of the SOXX

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TURNING Up (like Sh.Composite), or Rolling Down, like SLV might be doing now

Three Different Prices ... update : 10d :

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Cycles - between Silver & Shanghai stocks

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NOT SURE how useful this indicator will be, but I may follow it for a while.

They should both respond to monetary inflation, and China has been showing a dramatic loosening

: 10d :

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SLV looks likely to retest $14. SIL to retest $25.50-25.70?

SLV / Silver etf ... update : 6mo : $14.24 -$0.27, -1.86% vol. 7.57M, Yield: n/a, PER: n/a

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SIL vs SLV/ Silver Shares vs. Silver ... update : 6mo : $26.28 -$0.59, -2.20% vol. 164.5k, Yield: 1.16%, PER: n/a

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Ratio: SIL to-SLV : $26.28 / $14.24 = R-1.00?

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==

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  • 2 weeks later...

US Dollar - is the Big Slide finally due?

I am watching to see if there is a breakdown in these charts > Below $97 & then $96?

DXY / Trade-weighted US Dollar... 3-yrs / 10d - Last: $97.06 - 0.17

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/ 10d

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GOLD BACK

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So far, OVER that Gap down !

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  • 2 weeks later...

ROLLING OVER?  A Big Drop Ahead !

PSEI / Philippines Stock Exchange Index ... update : 10d / Last: 7.761.54 -127.87. Late Aug. It rose into 8/30.

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Philippines PSEI / Possible Right Shoulder now in place at 8400, w/ recent rallyback to 8000

 PSEI ... update : with Prop.Dev'l : 10d / Last: 7,980 + 87, + 1.10%

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Major property developers ROSE to a NEW PEAK at the time of the recent possible Right Shoulder

PSEI Index vs- SMPH, ALI, & MEG ... 3-years / PSEI peak=early 2018. Property peak= July 2019

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If the August low in PSEI gets taken out by a meaningful amount, then it would be a very bad sign for Philippines stocks

The recent serious weakness in Property developer stocks is a sign that an important downturn may be underway.

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  • 2 weeks later...

GOLD ready to move up soon?

GOLD vs Bonds, including TIPS (inflation protected bonds)

Made valuable discovery today, on what drives Gold price - Last week

Tips Led?: GLD ($132.14) vs TLT ($132.44) from 5.Jul.19 : 10d / GLD:$137.06 / TLT:$135.00= Gap:$2.06, r-101.5%

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UPDATED: / GLD:$137.01 / TLT:$140.72= Gap:($3.71) r-97.41%... was: Gap:$2.06, r-101.5%, Gap swung by $5.76 !

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RATIO & Gap:($3.71) r-97.41%

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But a GLD-TLT GAP Straddle: ie Buy GLD-Call / Sell TLT-Put ?? 

Such as: ...

GLD:$137.01 / TLT:$140.72= Gap:($3.71) r-97.41%
======: 142C: 142P=strad / 140C: 140P=strad / 138C: 138P=strad / 136C: 136P= strad /
GLD-Ja.: 0.66+ 5.35= $6.01 / 1.05+ 3.70= $4.75 / 1.67+ 2.31= $3.98 / 2.64+ 1.26= $3.90 /
TLT -Ja1:1.28+ 2.83= $4.11 / 2.18+ 1.71= $3.89 / 3.42+ 0.95= $4.37 / 5.05+ 0.50= $5.55 /
TLT -Ja. : 1.68+ 3.15= $4.83 / 2.61+ 2.03= $4.64 / 3.83+ 2.03= $5.86 / 5.30+ 0.74= $6.04 /
G.c /T.p : 0.66+ 2.83= $3.49 / 1.05+ 2.03= $3.08 / 1.67+ 2.03= $3.70 / 2.64+ 0.74= $3.38 /
GLD-Fb.: 1.32+ 5.80= $7.12 / 1.80+ 4.25= $6.05 / 2.47+ 2.88= $5.35 / 3.40+ 1.80= $5.20 /
TLT -Fb.: 2.38+ 3.83= $6.21 / 3.33+ 2.74 = $6.07 / 4.55+ 1.93= $6.48 / 5.88+ 1.35= $7.23 /
G.c /T.p : 1.32+ 3.83= $5.15 / 1.80+ 2.74 = $4.54 / 2.47+ 1.93= $4.40 / 3.40+ 1.35= $4.75 /
======:
$139 strads: Jan./ exp. 1/17/20 : 51 days-/ Feb./ exp. 2/21/20: 86 days- /
======: 139C: 139P=strad / x sqrt. 37.3%/ 139C: 139P=strad / x sqrt. 48.5% /
 > GLD- : 1.32+ 2.97= $4.29 / 3.09%: 8.27%/  2.11+ 3.53= $5.64/ 4.06%: 8.36%/
 > TLT - : 2.78+ 1.28= $4.06 / 2.92%: 7.83%/  3.88+ 2.33= $6.21/ 4.47%: 9.21%/
G.c /T.p: 1.32+ 1.28= $2.60/ 1.87%: 5.01% 2.11+ 2.33= $4.44/ 3.19%: 6.59%/

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  • 2 weeks later...

HOW to Hedge a Gold position with Bond options (use Calls on TMV)
 

TMV/20yr TBond 3xBear vs- dGLD & dSLV .. fr. 2015: 10.6.19: 5yr: 2yr: 1yr: 6mo: 10d / $6.09 -1.13, $20.88, $16.71

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: 10.6.19: 5yr: 2yr: 1yr: 6mo: 10d

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10d : TLT-Gld-Slv-10d / $6.09 -1.13, $20.88, $16.71 // $166.77 +8.25, $157.55 +0.05, $16.18 -0.12

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: TLT-Gld-Slv-10d $166.77 +8.25, $157.55 +0.05, $16.18 -0.12

Gold & Bonds have shot up, while Silver has lagged - Gold-to-Silver ratio is up near the 100x High. 

: SLV-Gld-Tlt- 5yr : 1yr: 3mo / TLT: $166.77 / SLV: $16.18 = Ratio

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: SLV-Gld-Tlt since sep.2018

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: SLV-Gld-Tlt-10d : 5yr $16.18 -0.12, $157.55 +0.05, $166.77 +8.25

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Ratio: TLT to-SLV: 10.3x , Has shot up since beginning of 2020, as Bond yields dropped

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Sometimes Silver Dropped when Bonds went up... But then Silver Rose when Bonds dropped

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==

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NEAR A TOP?

He sees a Top in Silver coming at $24-26.  And then a 6-9 months correction, and a Stock bear market

"Stocks could rollover from a double top within the next month.

Then, as stocks fall, Gold and silver will rollover too."

After the correction in silver, it will be ready for a really huge move to $48 and beyond.

Chris Vermeulen: Caution Advised Before Gold Targets $5000 and Silver Targets $100+

He also sees the USD falling and is "in a major downtrend" ... to Major Support at $93-94... then a big bounce

SPX

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"we are about to fill the last gap on the SPX. we are only 2.5% away.  When we do that, stocks could head into something very bad on the downside'

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  • 1 month later...

Is the Slide in Precious Metals finished?

GLD ... YTD: 10d / Last: 169.59 -2.64, -1.53%.  LOD: 168.86 vs yrH: 194.44, -13.2%-
Last move up: 136 > 194.4 = 58.4. (194.4- 168.9= 25.5): -43.7%

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SLV ... YTD: 10d / Last: $21.63 -0.30, -1.37%.  LOD: $21.41 vs yrH: $27.39, -31.8%

Last move up: $18. > $27.4 = $9.4. $27.4- $21.4= 6.0): -63.8%

WGwpGye.gif

==

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  • 2 months later...

update / top $2,089 / $194.45= r10.74 = Gold: $1,891 /178.56= r10.59, LTPZ: 88.62 =2,01x, UGL:$68.2 at 12.31.20 /

Gold: $1,830 / GLD: $172 =r10.63, 5.11.21 > $1,804 / $169 = r10.67, LTPZ: $88.5 =1.91x UGL: 59.27 at 7.22.21

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chart#2: LTPZ: $88.7 / UGL: 59.27 = r1.49x at 7.22.21

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LTPZ : $88.7 vs, Yr.H: $90.07

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  • 2 weeks later...

GBS.L / Gold etf ... update / Last; GBS- $167.77 London Gold etf = $1,800

0pmTCN6.gif  

Are we in a Blue Box (peaking formation),  or a Green Box (continuation)?   current action looks like both.

Probably GREEN, because we are not so far from an important Low

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  • 2 weeks later...
  • 1 month later...

BONDS : LQD vs TLT. .... from: Dec.2017: mid-2019: 5yr: 2yr: 1yr: 10d: / 30Yr.Yield

LQD : Investment Grade Corp. Bond ETF.     : 111.76 -1.74, -1.36%
TLT  : iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF : 115.37 -3.25, -2.74%  . 
In fact there was a huge 5point, drop followed by a 1.36 point rally, that's 27% rally.   A big gap down is still intact

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LQD was down big, but less violently than TLT.  These are both big trades.  TLT has 48.36 Million volume; and LQD had 34.35 Million

RATIO

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Longer term rates squirted up... Now over 3%

TYX / CBOE 30 Year Treasury Bond Yield Index ... Dec.2017: mid-2019: 5yr: 1yr: 10d / Last: 3.16% / 31.60 + 1.60, / 30Yr.Yield

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mid-2019: 10d / 3.16% / 31.60 + 1.60,

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===

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GLD vs. UGL : from Nv.2019: UGL: 59.84 /GLD: 183.51= 32.6%;  AGQ: 25.78 /SLV: 20.97= 122.9%. SIL: 23.95

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SLV vs. AGQ : from Nv.2019AGQ: 25.78 /SLV: 20.97= 122.9%. SIL: 23.95

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update / GLD: top $2,089 / $194.45= r10.74 =

=====
Date = :   GLD  :  Gold : Ratio:   XLE  :  TLT  :  LTPZ  :  TIP  :  TYX :
 8.07.20 : 190.81: 2,060: 10.80: 37.18 : 169.9 : 88.55: 126.2: 1.23%
 5.04.23 : 190.77: 2,039: 10.69: 78.11 : 105.2 : 60.90: 110.0: 3.72%
10.30.23: 185.10: 1,998 : 10.79: 84.91: 83.99: 50.43: 103.1: 5.04%
11.01.23 : 183.51: 1,986 : 10.82: 84.99: 85.10: 51.08: 103.2: 4.98%

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LTPZ: 51.08 + 1.30, +2.6%

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Gold Gbs / Usd

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TMF(tlt)-ugl-hod, >Aug.'23: Flip-HOD

Oln6sWw.png

UGL is a 2X Gold etf.  GLD and UGL are holding up well.  And I think they may continue to do that so long as TMF (leverage etf on bonds) remains in its up-channel.   Having said that, HOD is a Bear etf on oil, and rising oil / falling HOD - could undermine Bonds and Gold

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