DrBubb's Diary - June 2018 Trading - v.113

[drbubb]

Dr.B's Trading Diary : 2018. Diary's 113th Month,

8 years+ since 3/09 Low : Fresh New Peak in Dec.: Dow closed 2017 @ 24,719

Top of Page Charts (Odd) : Channel-GE : MP : PP : Charts : Acore : Fringe : Ag B E G H :

Where are you, Dear General? ( Kim Jong ill) ... full version

On his first morning in North Korea, he heard an eerie sound outside his hotel room at 5 a.m., then heard it again every day after that.

The entire city, it turns out, is awakened by an instrumental version of the North Korean tune, “Where Are You, Dear General?” a salute to Kim Il-sung.

================

DrBubb's Diary - June 2018 Trading - v.113

The Fed's Racetrack: Gold (GLD) vs Stocks (SPY) : update :vs.CRB : GLD-hr : SPY-hr : GLD/SPYratio

The Fed's money-printing has maintained confidence in markets - but the money has gone not only into stocks, but also into other areas. For many months, money flowed into commodities like Gold, pushing prices higher even faster than stocks, as the chart above shows. But since Gold's peak in Aug.2011, stocks have outperformed gold. Since then, these two assets have tended to trade counter-cyclically to each other.

Gold in EURO - very worthwhile to track

Short Term:

Medium Term - 3 Years: Gold-inEUR

US Stocks: "SPX-in-Euros" .. SPX-to-EUR or SPY-to-FXE  .. update

Ratio - SPX/Euro has often moved in a nice clear channels

DrBubb's "Early Warning System"

Leading Ratio ... LQD:TLT-Weekly-3yrs : TLT-vsLQD : Copper : HG price : CU price : SPY-10/11 : SMH-6mos

I reckon that the LQD-to-TLT ratio should move in harmony with stocks, or maybe LEAD stock moves. If they are moving in different directions, then one should be cautious. (However, the value of this indicator has become suspect in recent years, after giving some false warnings.)
=====
Bullish Percentages :
BPNYA- : http://stockcharts.c...!Lh14,3]&pref=G
BPGDM : http://stockcharts.c...!Lh14,3]&pref=G
NASIT - : NAMOT : Summation Indices

INFLATION Watch / "Big Three" (SPY, GLD, DXY) .. 10d : 6mo-D : 2yr-D : 5yr-D // CU-etc

RECORD : CU may lead GLD and SPY
======

US Fed'l Debt // Formula: (Fed'l Debt - $4.0 Trillion ) x 119 +$100

Date-: DebtTr > G.Eqv /10.40 : - GLD - : - SPY - : -DIFF- : - ratio - : -- CU -- : cu/gld : - FXI - : cu-fxi : - DBA- : - BTC - :

end07: $09.23 > 0,722 : 072.2 : $082.46 : $146.21 : -63.75: 56.398% : $20.0e: XX.X% :: $ 17.05: ==== : $ 32.99 :

end08: $10.70 > 0,897 : 089.7 : $086.52 : $090.24 : -$3.72: 95.878% : $20.0e: XX.X% :: $ 29.09: ==== : $ 26.18 :

end09: $12.31 > 1,089 : 108.9 : $107.31 : $111.44 : -$4.13: 96.294% : $30.0e: XX.X% :: $ 42.26: ==== : $ 26.44 :

end10: $14.03 > 1,294: 129.4 : $138.74 : $125.75 : $12.99: 110.34% : $43.71: 31.51%: $ 43.09: $0.62: $ 32.35 : $ 00.29 :

end11: $15.22 > 1,435: 138.0 : $151.99 : $125.50 : $26.49: 121.11% : $29.29: 19.27%: $ 34.87: - 5.58: $ 28.88 : $ 04.60 :

end12: $16.43 > 1,570: 151.0 : $162.02 : $142.41 : $19.61: 113.77% : $30.34: 18.73%: $ 40.45:-10.11: $ 27.95 : $ 13.48 :

end13: $17.35 > 1,689: 162.4 : $116.12 : $184.69 : -68.57 : 062.87% : $22.27: 19.18%: $ 38.37:-16.10: $ 24.25 :$815.00 :

end14: $18.14 > 1,783 : 171.4 : $113.58 : $205.54 : -98.04 : 55.26% :: $18.09: 15.93%: $ 41.62:-23.53: $ 24.89 :$316.20 :

end15: $18.83 > 1,865 : 179.3 : $101.46 : $203.87 :-102.41: 49.77% :: 2.135 : 2.140%: $ 35.29:-00.00: $ 20.61: $433.50 :

end16

(2016)
01/29: $19.01 > 1,886 : 180.0 : $108.05 : $193.65 : - $85.60: 55.80% :: 2.060 : 1.907% $ 31.20:-00.00: $ 19.99: $375.00 :
02/29: $19.13 > 1,900 : 181.3 : $118.64 : $193.56 : - $74.98: 61.29% :: 2. ??? : 1.000% $ 30.00: -00.00: $ 20.00: $434.00 :
03/31: $19.26 > 1,916 : 182.8 : $117.64 : $205.52 : - $87.88: 57.24% :: 2. ??? : 1.000% $ 33.77: -13.17: $ 20.60: $415.00 :
04/30: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $123.65 : $206.33 : - $82.68: 59.93% :: 2. ??? : 1.000% $ 33.53: -12.45: $ 21.08: $4 ??.00 :
05/31: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $116.06 : $209.84 : - $93.78: 55.31% :: 2.080 : 1.792% $ 33.65: -12.34: $ 21.31: $526.10 :

06/30: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $126.47 : $209.48 : - $83.01: 60.37% :: 2.0 ?? : 0.000% $ 00.00: -00.00: $ 00.00: $0
07/31: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $128.98 : $217.12 : - $88.14: 59.40% :: 2.0 ?? : 0.000% $ 00.00: -00.00: $ 00.00: $0
08/31: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $124.78 : $217.38 : - $92.60: 57.40% :: 2.080 : 1.667% $ 37.08: -16.85: $ 20.23: $570.00 :

=====
ye'16 : $20.0E > 1,8 xx : 18x.x :

Date-: DebtTr > G.Eqv /10.40 : - GLD - : - SPY - : -DIFF- : - ratio - : -- CU -- : cu/gld : - FXI - : cu-fxi : - DBA- : - BTC - :

======

"GOLD Formula" is : (Fed'l Debt - $4.0 Trillion ) x 119 +$100 : US Govt Debt :: http://www.usgovernmentdebt.us/

The FED must be pleased with the way that money has flowed into stocks, away from Gold. / notes : a b c

[drbubb]

DAILY MONITOR

Month: -SPY- : Chg : volume/ VIX : GDX: +-chg: -GLD- : Chg: volume: x10.?? WTI.Cr: -DXY-- -Chg- : --TLT-: Chg : Posts/Views cum'l
2015
12-31: 203.87 - 2.06: 91.2M: 18.21 : 13.72 +0.06: 101.46 +0.04 : 3.81M: 1060.5 $37.07* 98.693 +0.413: 120.58 +0.54 : 02, 086/ 051, 1,913

 2016
03-31: 205.52 - 0.50: 79.4M: 13.95 : 19.97 - 0.26: 117.64 +0.54: 9.17M: 1233.9 $38.11* $94.63 - 0.10 : 130.61 +0.92 : 03, 096/ 1618, 4,518
06-30: 209.48 + 2.82: 143.M: 15.63 : 27.71 +0.56: 126.47 +0.63: 15.1M: 1324.7 $48.40* $95.81 +0.05 : 138.90 +0.51 : 0?, 055/ 060, 1,941
09-30: 216.30 +1.62: 98.7M: 13.29 : 26.43 - 0.26:  125.64 - 0.43: 10.8M: 1317.1 $48.24* $95.42 - 0.10 : 137.51 - 1.24/ 04, 096 : 1191, 6,335
12-30: 223.53 - 0.82: 86.9M: 14.04 : 20.92 - 0.83: 109.61  - 0.68: 8.79M: 1151.7 $53.72* 102.38 - 0.27 : 119.13 + 0.18/ 03, 096: 9396, 13876  

2017
01-31: 227.53 - 0.02 00.0M: 12.09 : 23.93 +0.78: 115.55 +1.68: 0.00M: 1211.8 $52.80* $99.74 -0.62 : 119.84 +0.57/ 08 120 : 4554, 10255
02-28: 236.47 - 0.64 69.6M: 12.92 : 22.85 +0.01: 119.23 +0.11 8.29M: 1253.9 $54.01* 101.48 +0.32 : 121.74 +0.45/ 09, 085 : 4109, 7,634
03-31: 235.74 - 0.55 56.2M: 12.37 : 22.81 +0.26: 118.72 +0.25 8.14M: 1251.2 $50.60* 100.22 -0.07 : 120.71 +0.35/ 10, 120: 17.4K, 23202
04-28: 238.08 - 0.52 50.4M: 10.82 : 22.23 +0.42: 120.77 +0.38 8.86M: 1268.3 $49.33* $99.04 - 0.15 : 122.35 +0.27/ 12, 098: 5178, 11915
05-31: 241.44 - 0.06 00.0M: 10.41 : 22.69 +0.10: 120.62 +0.48 0.00M: 1264.8: $48.32* $97.21 +0.00 : 124.14 +0.05/ 04, 106 : 976, 6,918
06-30: 241.80 +0.45 49.4M: 11.18 : 22.08 + 0.13: 118.02 -0.30 6.79M: 1242.3: $46.04* $95.64 +0.09 : 125.12 - 0.29/ 04, 095 : 723, 5,020
07-31: 246.77 -0.14 42.9M: 10.25 : 22.86 - 0.05 : 120.75 +0.06 3.82M: 1273.8 $50.17: $92.90 - 0.43 : 124.04 +0.15/ 00, 094 : 800, 5,056
08-31: 247.49 +1.48 75.8M: 10.59 : 24.72 +0.56 : 125.82 +1.46 11.3M: 1322.2 $47.23: $92.62 +0.06 : 127.99 +0.38/ 03, 091 : 894, 5,034
=====
09-29: 251.23 +0.88 60.7M: %9.51 : 22.96 -0.20 : 121.58 - 0.63 8.77M: 1284.8 $51.67: $93.07 - 0.06 : 124.76 +0.28/ 08, 067 : 1346, 4,235
10-31: 257.15 +0.40 42.7M: 10.18 : 22.48 - 0.28 : 120.67 - 0.46 3.76M: 1277.5 $54.20: $94.54 +0.01 : 124.46 +0.04/ 03, 101 : 1158, 2,371
11-30: 265.01 +2.30 104.M: 11.28 : 22.47 - 0.03 : 121.10 - 0.94 7.84M: 1276.7 $57.40: $92.97  - 0.09 : 125.12 - 0.42/ 03, 079 : 545, 2,180 :1436
12-29: 266.86 - 1.01 60.8M: 11.04 : 23.24 +0.04 : 123.65 +0.80 7.55M: 1309.3 $60.42 : $92.30 - 0.20 : 126.86 +0.20/ 05, 107 : 000, 1590

====

---: SPY- : Chg : volume/ VIX : GDX: +-chg: -GLD- : Chg: volume: x10.?? WTI.Cr: -DXY- -Chg.- : --TLT- : Chg : Posts/Views cum'l:

JAN

30: 281.76 - 2.92 116.M: 14.79 : 23.45 - 0.23 : 126.80 - 0.55 9.37M: 1340.0 $64.50 : $89.05 - 0.37 : 122.01 - 0.72/ 04, 107 : 072, 1335
31: 281.90 +0.14 97.6M: 13.54 : 23.75 +0.30 : 127.65 +0.85 13.0M: 1343.1 $64.73 : $89.11 +0.06 : 122.73 +0.72/

FEB
28: 271.65 - 2.78 101.M: 19.85 : 21.35 - 0.14 : 125.00 - 0.13 4.52M: 1317.9 $61.64 : $90.73 +0.07 : 118.75 +0.75/ 00, 076 : 000, 1093

MAR
29: 263.15 +3.32 104.M: 19.97 : 21.98 - 0.01 : 125.79 +0.06 6.84M: 1327.3 $64.94 : $90.01 -0.13 : 121.90 +0.59/ 00, 67: 000, 0880

APR
30: 264.51 - 2.05: 65.0M: 15.93 : 22.28 - 0.45 : 124.59 - 0.91 9.59M: 1319.2 $68.57 : $91.86 +0.27 : 119.10 +0.21/ 074, 0,630
MAY
30: 272.61 +3.59 63.0M: 14.94 : 22.44 +0.29 : 123.37 + 0.18 4.49M: 1306.5 $68.21 : $94.07 -0.37 : 121.42 - 0.82/
31: 270.94 - 1.67 78.4M: 15.43 : 22.34 -0.10 : 123.10 - 0.27 7.62M: 1304.7 $66.24 : $93.98 -0.09 : 121.22 - 0.20/ 00,74 : 000, 667
JUN
01: 273.60 +2.66 64.2M: 13.46 : 22.31 -0.03 : 122.49 - 0.61 7.65M: 1299.3 $65.01 : $94.16 +0.18 : 120.30 -0.92/
04: 274.90 +1.30 00.0M: 12.74 : 22.28 -0.03 : 122.37 - 0.08 0.00M: 1297.3 $64.75 : $94.05 -0.11 : 119.43 -0.87/
05: 275.10 +0.20 44.3M: 12.40 : 22.44 +0.16 : 122.85 +0.48 6.38M: 1302.2 $65.52 : $93.85 - 0.20 : 119.71 +0.28/ 00, 026 : 000, 119
06:
07: 277.37 +0.00 00.0M: 12.13 : 22.45 -0.00 : 122.86 +0.00 0.00M: 1303.0 $65.95 : $93.46 +0.00 : 119.89 - 0.00/
08: 278.19 +0.82 51.6M: 12.18 : 22.36 -0.09 : 123.01 +0.15 3.81M: 1302.7 $65.74 : $93.54 +0.09 : 119.53 - 0.36/ 00, 036 : 000, 230
11: 278.56 +0.37 45.3M: 12.35 : 22.55 +0.19 : 123.23 +0.22 3.17M: 1303.2 $66.10 : $93.61 +0.04 : 119.31 -0.22/
12: 278.92 +0.36 62.5M: 12.34 : 22.49 - 0.06 : 122.82 - 0.41 6.94M: 1299.4 $66.36 : $93.84 +0.23 : 119.34 +0.03/ 00, 044 : 000, 327
13: 278.03 - 0.89 68.0M: 12.94 : 22.48 - 0.01 : 123.19 +0.37 5.72M: 1301.3 $66.64 : $93.55 -0.26 : 119.28 -0.06/ 02, 046 : 030, 357
14: 278.73 +0.70 60.9M: 12.12 : 22.66 +0.18 : 123.38 +0.19 7.43M: 1308.3 $66.89 : $94.96 +1.39 : 120.27 +0.99/ 03, 049 : 070, 427
15: 277.13 - 0.35 101.M: 11.98 : 22.23 - 0.43 : 121.34 - 2.04 13.4M: 1278.5 $65.06 : $94.79 - 0.17 : 120.38 +0.11/
18: 276.56 - 0.57 47.6M: 12.31 : 22.27 +0.04 : 121.11 - 0.23 3.81M: 1280.1 $65.69 : $94.76 - 0.03 : 120.27 -0.11/ 00, 066 : 000, 586
19: 275.50 - 1.06 00.0M: 13.35 : 22.05 - 0.22 : 120.80 - 0.31 0.00M: 1277.0 $00.00 : $95.12 +0.36 : 120.97 +0.70/ 04. 070 : 046, 632
20: 275.97 +0.47 48.2M: 12.79 : 21.92 - 0.13 : 120.26 - 0.54 4.44M: 1274.5 $65.71 : $95.24 +0.12 : 119.91 - 1.06/ 00. 070 : 000, 632
21: 274.24 - 1.73 64.4M: 14.64 : 21.91 - 0.01 : 120.05 - 0.21 5.57M: 1270.5 $65.54 : $94.86 - 0.38 : 120.54 +0.63/ 03, 073 : 043, 675
22: 274.74 +0.50 46.2M: 13.77 : 22.18 +0.27 : 120.34 +0.29 4.11M: 1270.7 $68.58 : $94.52 - 0.34 : 120.53 - 0.01/ 03, 076 : 055, 730
25: 271.00 - 3.74 117.M: 17.44 : 22.01 - 0.17 : 119.89 - 0.45 9.21M: 1268.9 $68.08 : $94.29 - 0.23 : 120.80 +0.27/ 00, 086 : 000, 869
26: 271.60 +0.60 64.0M: 15.92 : 21.95 -0.06 : 119.26 - 0.63 8.63M: 1259.9 $70.53 : $94.61 - 0.32 : 120.97 +0.17/ 06, 092 : 051, 920
27: 269.35 -2.25 93.3M: 17.91 : 21.81 -0.14 : 118.58 - 0.68 6.25M: 1256.1 $72.76 : $95.23 +0.62 : 122.11 +1.14/ 08, 100 : 058, 978
28: 270.89 +1.54 00.0M: 16.85 : 21.93 +0.12 : 118.22 - 0.36 0.00M: 1000.0 $00.00 : $95.32 +0.09 : 122.14 +0.03/
29: 271.28 +0.39 74.2M: 16.09 : 22.31 +0.38 : 118.65 +0.43 7.67M: 1000.0 $00.00 : $94.47 - 0.85 : 121.72 - 0.42/ 99, 100 : 000, 1026

 

 

[drbubb]

Long Term Charts updated from time-to-time, to at least: April 30, 2017

Prices---- > YrE.'16 : YrE.'17 : change
Gold ------ : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% :
GLD ------ : 109.61 : 123.65 : +12.8% :
Ratio ------: r10.51 : r10.59 :
GDX ------ : $20.92 : $23.24 : +11.1% :
GDXJ ---- : $31.55 : $34.13 : +8.18% :
SLV-------- : $15.64 : $15.98 : +2.08% :
SHcomp : $0,000. : $3,307. :

IWM / etf for Russell-2000 - 12/31/16 : $134.85,  12/31/17 : $152.46 :

All-log : 10-yrs : 12mos // SPY ... : To-End-2015 : last-12mos

KEY CHARTS
===========

SPY / S&P500 etf - (UP) ...SPY: to 12/31/16 : $223.53,  12/31/17 : $266.86

All-log / 3yrs : 4yrs : 5yrs : 10yrs : TREND is still UP, but may be rolling over

SPX ... 10-yr

.
TLT / T-Bonds etf - (DOWN) ... TLT: to 12/31/16 : $119.13,  12/31/17 : $126.86

All / 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yr : Made an important Peak in 2016 (?) identified in prior chart here !

.
UUP / USDollar x2 etf - (Peaking?) ... to 12/31/16 : $26.46,,  12/31/17 : $24.03

All / 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yr : long ter, TREND is still UP,

.
USO / Oil etf - (Battling DOWNtrend) ... to 12/31/16 : $11.72, 12/31/17 : $12.01

All / 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yr : 10yrL : Price is battling that old Downtrend

.
XLE / Oil stocks - (Fighting back UP) ... to 12/31/16 : $75.32,  12/31/17 : $72.26

All-log / 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : TREND is still Up

.
OIH / Oil service - (Fight DOWNtrend) ... $11.72, 2016  ,  12/31/17 : $26.05

All-Log :  3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : Major Bottom in place?

.
GLD / Gold etf - (Reversing Downtrend?) ... 12/31/16 : 109.61,  12/31/17 : $123.65

All : 3yrs : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : Reversing to Up?

.
GDX / Gold stocks - (Breaking Downtrend?) ... 12/31/16 : $20.92,  12/31/17 : $23.24

GDX ... All-Log : 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : Reversed to Up in 2016 maybe?

.HUI Chart - price data goes back further ... 12/31/16 : 182.31, 2016 range: $99.19 to 286.05 : +199.4% - beta 7.64

All-data :

China's Shanghai index last bounced of a support level near 2,600
ShComp 12/31/16 : 3103.6, 2016 range: 2638.3 to 3538.7 : +34.12% - beta 1.305

CN : SHcomp ... All-Log : All-Data

===== other CHARTS =====

10yrs : SLV : GDXJ : / log : AGQ : PSLV : UGL : PHM +, GDXJ -, RGLD -, HK:HSI +, HK:12 -new,

[drbubb]

Gold's 4-6 months Cycle:

* added in edit, 5/3 : 6mo

4-6 month cycle low?

For months, I have been saying: "Low due near year-end maybe?"

"Next Cycle Low (in GDX) could be Dec. 2017" - it was! ... prior : update

Old chart - to Feb.2018

GLD, updated: 1-yr: 2-yr : 3-yr : update : prior / UK:GBS: $115.50/ HK-2840 : HK-3081:

HISTORY: The longer history of the cycles looked like this: 2013-15 :

: Low, Dec.15th,2016: 1129.8 / $103.04 = 10.96 / intraday: 1123/$103= 10.90

Look what happened after that Dec.2015 Low - a Nice Rally ! .....And then once again after a Dec. 2016 Low:

TMF (2x Bull etf of Long TBonds, like TLT)

These prices tend to move together : TMF, GDX, UGLD, SLV : Bonds, Gold stocks, Gold, and Silver.  And they have been moving in a shared 4-6 months cycle

TMF-etc... 2-yrs : 5-yrs : 6-mos : update / 10-d : prior month chart showed a divergence - but Gap of UGLD-TMF narrowed

TMF-etc.10d ... update: Chart below is updated to 5/01/2018

[drbubb]

I'M STILL WAITING !
(as posted one month ago):

Junior Gold Miners are coming into a major "Pinch point" - Watch for breakout over $34 (this week?)

GDXJ / Jr. Gold Miners ... 10-yr : 5-yr : 3-yrW :  3-yrD : 12-mos / 10d - Last: $33.55 +0.07 : pe: n/a , yield: 0.03% (12mos: $29.69 - 37.75)

12-mos

JNUG - 12mos

==

[drbubb]

BRADLEY Model : "TURN dates"

SPY... 2015-2018: 12-31-16: $223.53 / 12-29-17: $266.86 : +19.4%

2016 : +Jan. 5, -May 10, +June 1, -July 5, +??, -Sep. 28, +Nov. 29

2017 : +Dec. 29, -Apr.17, +Apr.29, -Jun.21, +Aug.19, -Sep.7, +Dec.3, /

2018  : -Jan.4, +Jan.17

Model for 2017-8?: 2017 : 2016 : 2015 :

===

Historical TURN: Bonds peaked first in 2015, then the Dollar, then stocks...

TLT... 2015-2018 : 12-31-16: $119.13 / 12-31-17: $126.86 : +6.49%

USD trade-weighted dollar:

DXY ... 2015-2018 : DXY-all-data : 12-31-16: $102.36 / '17: $92.28 : -9.72%

sym: ye.2016 : ye.2017 : %.chg : 2017-H :
SPY : $223.53 : $266.86 : +19.4% : 268.60 :
TLT : $119.13 : $126.86 : +6.49% : 129.57 :
DXY : $102.21 : $92.282 : -9.72% : 103.82 :
Djia  : $19,763 : $24,719 : +25.1% : 24,876 :
GLD-: $109.61 : $123.65 : +12.8% : 128.32 :
EUR-: $1.0520 : $1.2001 : +14.1% : 1.2093 :
Dj/E : E18,786 : E20,597 : +9.64% :
PHP-: P49.606 : P50.009 : +0.00% : 52.006 :
====

OTHER Indices : USO : GLD : GDX : PHM : IYR : UGLD-vsGDX : : IMGHST.co

[drbubb]

Bitcoin fell back, and its trying to re-establish a new uptrend

The 2-3 months cycle bottomed in early Feb... and may have bottomed again

Clif High thought the price would be at $13,000 in Feb. & will reach $64k - 100k during 2018, in next wave."

Recent BITCOIN prices over 5-days - Almost Live

Bitstamp -12month chart ... update .. 12 mo w/ Cycles - bottomed early Feb. & early Apr?

BTS ... 6mo : 3mo : 1mo : 1moS : 10dS : 5dS : 5dB : 2dB :

 

1mo : 1moS : 10dS : 5dS : 5dB : 2dB :

 

All-data : 8yr : 2yr :

=====

12/31: 0.5481 x13100+0000=7180:+070:13150Mar(3950):7208/(3950:54.8%)
01/31: 0.5955 x10240-(000)=6098/0079:10319Mar(1100):6145/(0500:08.1%):+0397:10637 +600
02/28: 0.6100 x10950-(- 50)=6680: -100:10950Mar(-800):6680/(-750:11.2%):+0100:11048 +025,-.007: 11.6
MAR
03/06: 0.6155 x10880-(200)=6696:+045:10925Mar -1600:6724/-2350:34.2%: --550:11085 +205, -.011: 11.7

04/21: 0.6900 x$8820- +200 =6086 +015:$8835Jun(+403):6096/(+603+9.89%):+0000:$8830 +010,-.000: 9.47
04/29: 0.6942 x$9407- +100 =6530 +010:$9417Jun(+203):6537/(+303+4.64%):+0000:$9,477 +070,-.000: 9.65
05/05: 0.6937 x$9846(+000) =6830 +238:10,084Jun(+003):6995/(+003+0.04%):+0000:10,131+285,-.000: 10.1H
06/02: 0.6933 x$7477(+000) =5184 +020:$7,497Jun(+003):5198/(+003+0.06%):+0000:$7,559+082,-.000: 9.25H
7517
======
-Bonus: 0.225 x12750=$3337; x$7,497= $1687: 3511: H:4726 =1215 / To H: $9,249
======
-Bonus: 0.225 x12750=$3337; x10,084= $2269: 4726: H:4726 / New High! $10,084

[drbubb]

RATIO : SPX -to GOLD remains above 200%

... But getting "tired" maybe?

 

[drbubb]

TRIGGERS & TROUBLE?

Stock Market Shows Several TRIGGERS in 2018 To Set Off A Major Market Meltdown!

bofa bear market signposts may 2018.jpg (845×633)

www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/bofa%20bear%20market%20signposts%20may%202018.jpg?itok=Sc2DTEVt

By: alexmark

Read more: WHAT REALLY HAPPENED | The History The US Government HOPES You Never Learn! http://www.whatreallyhappened.com/#ixzz5HJWiUauy

/ 2 /

Total Debt Now at $67T & 340% of GDP vs. 150% Long-Term Average

By: alexmark

Read more: WHAT REALLY HAPPENED | The History The US Government HOPES You Never Learn! http://www.whatreallyhappened.com/#ixzz5HJWtpXAp

[drbubb]

Liquidity Crisis Coming: Here, There, Everywhere

byMike Mish Shedlock

3 days-edited

 

Jim Puplava thinks a liquidity crisis is on the horizon. I agree, adding that the problem is global.

Please pay attention to Jim Puplava at Financial Sense. He says a Liquidity Crisis Looming.

In total, index funds represent $7 trillion of U.S. stock funds that have no active manager. All buying and selling are done automatically. Active management has gone out of fashion, Puplava noted, and as this sea change occurs, the market's ability to price companies diminishes.

Ownership of stocks in the S&P 500 is concentrated with three companies; Vanguard, BlackRock, and State Street. They represent about 88 percent of the S&P 500, and if we include Schwab and Fidelity, over 90 percent of the S&P 500 is basically now in the hands of five companies.

“It's really mindless investing,” Puplava said. “The crux of the problem is that mutual funds own more bonds that seldom trade than ever before, but they're still promising to pay out investors within seven days of redemption, a promise they may not be able to fulfill in the next downturn or crisis

Global Problem

The problem is global.

Central bank actions explain most of what you need to know. Italian bonds provide a good example.

Despite the recent, massive selloff in Italian bonds, 10-year Italian bonds still trade at roughly the same yield as US 10-year bonds.

Is there no default risk? No eurozone exit risk?

Of course there is. But those bonds trade where they do because the ECB is engaged in QE to a far greater extent than the the Fed ever did. How nuts is that?

88% of the S&P is with Vanguard, BlackRock, and State Street. How nuts is that?

Close to $7 trillion in bonds trade with a negative yield. The figure was close to $10 trillion at one point. How nuts is that?

According to LCD, covenant-lite loan now account for a record 75% of the roughly $970 billion in outstanding U.S leveraged loans.

Covenant-lite agreements vary, but they allow things like paying interest with more debt rather than cash or skipping repayments entirely for periods of time. How nuts is that?

> https://www.themaven.net/mishtalk/economics/liquidity-crisis-coming-here-there-everywhere-9UqU-2UheEup1Ia98aQx0A/

===

Comments:

FelixMish 3 days

I'd be curious to know what percentage of ownership in the S&P companies their trade-able stocks represent.

And, am I reading correctly that Puplava says 88% of the total S&P trade-able stock value is held by Vanguard, Black Rock, and State Street?

Where does that leave all these often-repeated assertions about who owns the "wealth" of the US? As in, how does one know who owns shares of V, BR, and SS funds?

El_Tedo 2 days

This is a year old, but still relevant to this post.

No, ETFs Don’t Own 37% Of S&P 500 | ETF.com

Math doesn’t add to say U.S.-listed ETFs own more than one-third of the S&P 500. www.etf.com

 

 

TSPsmart.com 2 days

Using Yahoo holdings data, while institutional investors hold 65-80% of larger companies, these 3 firms hold 15-20% of the institutional holdings meaning only about 15% of the SP500. Some of the institutional holdings would be in active ETFS and mutual funds.

[drbubb]

Everything we were taught about the Sphinx is wrong

By: cyberknight

Boston University Associate Professor of Natural Sciences Robert M. Schoch appeared on The Joe Rogan Experience podcast last week where he talked about the Egyptian Sphinx and some of the anomalies he an his colleagues have discovered through years of research and work in regards to it.

more: WHAT REALLY HAPPENED | The History The US Government HOPES You Never Learn! http://www.whatreallyhappened.com/#ixzz5HJw9sTda

 

/ 2 /

In the early 1990s, Boston University geologist Dr. Robert M. Schoch was the first to rock the boat, starting those ripples, when he announced that the Sphinx might date back to 5000 or 7000 B.C., predating dynastic Egyptian culture. 

“In 1990, I first traveled to Egypt with the sole purpose of examining the Great Sphinx from a geological perspective. I assumed that the Egyptologists were correct in their dating. But, soon I discovered that the geological evidence was not compatible with what the Egyptologists were saying,” said Schoch on his website. 

Egyptologists and historians commonly believe that the Sphinx was built during the reign of Pharaoh Khafre. Khafre, also known as Pharaoh Chephren, allegedly commissioned the construction in 2500 B.C. 

However, the geologic evidence seems to point to more remote times. The Sphinx is carved from the bedrock at the site and the site consists of the Sphinx body structure as well as the bedrock walls of the enclosure surrounding it. 

“I found heavy erosional features that I concluded could only have been caused by rainfall and water runoff,” Schoch continued. “The thing is, the Sphinx sits on the edge of the Sahara Desert and the region has been quite arid for the last 5000 years.”

> http://www.ancient-origins.net/ancient-places-africa/riddle-sphinx-002062

[drbubb]

DATA NEEDS UPDATE

==== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg :  01/05 :  02/02 :   03/02 :  03/29  :  04/27 :  05/04  :  05/11 :  05/18 :  06/01 :
Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1322.3 : 1337.3 : 1323.4 :  1327.3 : 1323.4 : 1314.7 : 1320.7 : 1291.3 : 1299.3 :
GLD- : 109.61 : 123.65 : +12.8% : 125.33 : 126.39 : 125.39 : 125.79 : 125.50 : 124.54 : 125.00 : 122.41 : 122.49 :
SPY- : 223.53 : 266.86 : +19.4% : 273.42 : 275.45 : 269.08 : 263.15 : 266.56 : 266.02 : 272.85 : 271.33 : 270.94 :
SPX- : 2238.8 : 2673.6 : +19.4% : 2743.2 : 2762.1 : 2691.3 : 2640.9 : 2669.9 : 2663.4 : 2727.7 : 2713.0 : 2734.6 :
Sp/Au 194.4%: 204.2%: ====== : 207.5%: 206.5%: 203.4% : 199.0%: 201.7%: 202.6%:  206.5%: 210.1 %: 210.5%:
Silvr : 16.580 : 17.150 : +3.44% :  17.285 : 16.710 :16.470 : 16.268 : 16.500 : 16.520 : 16.750 : 16.445 : 16.440 :
SLV- : $15.64 : $15.98 : +2.08% : $16.22 : $15.66 : $15.56 : $15.41 : $15.57 : $15.54 : $15.70 : $15.48 : $15.44 :
XLE : $75.32 : $72.24 : -4.09%: $74.97 : $72.46 : $66.95: $67.41: $73.82 : $73.85 : $76.73 : $78.11 : $76.38 :
WTIc: $53.72 : $60.42 : +12.4% : $61.44 : $65.45 : $61.25 : $64.94 : $68.10 : $69.72 : $70.70 : $71.37 : $65.81 :
Au/Wt:  r-21.4 :  r-21.7 : ====== :  r21.52 : r-20.43 : r21.61 : r-20.44 : r-19.43 : r-18.86 : r-18.68 : r18.09 : r1--
Ngas: $3.350 : $2.950 : - 11.9% : $2.795 : $2.850 : $2.690 : $2.730 : $2.770 : $2.710 : $2.807 : $2.847 : $2.960 :
Cop'r: $2.510 : $3.305 : +31.7% : $3.230 : $3.190 : $3.120 : $3.030 : $3.050 : $3.090 : $3.112 : $3.064 : $3.100 :
Weat : 408.00 : 426.25 : +4.47% : 430.75 : 446.75 : 500.00 : 451.00 : 498.50 : 526.25 : 498.50 : 518.25 : 523.12 :
Corn : 352.00 : 350.75 : - 0.36% : 351.25 : 361.50 : 385.25 : 387.75 : 398.50 : 406.25 : 396.00 : 402.50 : 391.50 :
CRB- : 192.51 : 193.86 : +0.07% : 193.45 : 197.44 : 194.12 : 195.36 : 201.39: 203.25 : 203.54 : 203.69 : 201.71 :
DBA : $19.97 : $18.76 : -6.06%: $18.83 : $18.97 : $19.39: $18.18: $19.22: $19.32 : $18.97: $18.87 : $19.14 :
D/crb: 10.37% :  9.67% : ====== : 9.73%  :  9.61%  : 9.90% :  9.31% :   9.54% :  9.51% :  9.32%  :  9.26%  :  9.49% :
Xle/D: r-3.770 : r-3.850: +2.14%: r-3.981 : r-3.820 : r3.453 :  r-3.707 : r3.841 : r-3.822 : r-4.045 : r-4.139 : r-3.990 :
DXY- : 102.38 : $92.30 : - 9.85% : $92.01 : $89.19 :: $89.91 : $89.81 : $91.53 : $92.41 : $92.55 : $93.66 : $94.16 :
TLT- : 119.13 : 126.86 : + 6.49% : 125.71 : 119.58 :: 118.35 : 121.90 118.89 : 118.99 : 119.23 : 117.21 : 120.30 :
====
Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1322.3 : 1337.3 : 1323.4 : 1327.3 : 1323.4 : 1314.7 : 1320.7 : 1291.3 : 1299.3 :
Au/hd: r1.401 : r1.58E : ====== : r1.584 : r-1.589 : r-1.587 : r-1.569 : r-1.519 : r-1.521 : r1.52EE : r1.510 : 1.5--
Hold : 822.17 : 830.00 : +01.0% : 834.86 : 841.35 : 833.98 :  846.12 : 871.20 : 864.13 : 869.EE : 855.28 : 8---
GDX- : $20.92 : $23.24 : +11.1% : $23.67: $22.91 :  $21.49 : $21.98 : $22.73 : $22.65 : $22.85 : $22.19 : $22.31 :
WPM : $19.32 : $22.27 : +15.3% : $21.95 : $21.13 : $19.32 : $20.37 : $21.35 : $21.32 : $21.86 : $21.66 : $21.91 :
Gdxj : $31.55 : $34.13 : +8.18% : $34.48 : $32.29 : $31.73 : $32.15 : $33.03 : $33.55 : $33.85 : $32.84 : $32.80 :
PHM: $18.38 : $33.34 : +81.4% : $34.54 : $30.70 : $28.95 : $29.49 : $31.06 : $30.98 : $31.34 : $29.91 : $30.36 :
EEM- : $35.01 : $47.30 : +35.1% : $49.13 : $49.05 : $48.13 : $48.28 : $47.26 : $46.43 : $47.40 : $46.07 : $46.33 :
ShCm: 3103.7 : 3307.2 : +6.56% : 3391.8 : 3462.1 : 3254.5 : 3168.9: 3082.2 : 3091.0 : 3163.3 : 3193.3 : 3075.1 :
PhpSi: 6840.6 : 8558.4 : +25.1% : 8770.0 : 8810.8 : 8458.6 : 7979.8: 7721.0 : 7546.2 : 7752.1 : 7672.3 : 7630.3 :
XLF-  : $23.25 : $27.19 : +16.9% : $28.41 : $29.36 : $28.44 : $27.57: $27.70 : $27.27 : $28.26 : $27.95 : $27.48 :
IWM- : 134.85 : 152.43 : +13.0% : 154.75 : 153.83 : 152.35 : 151.83: 154.60 : 155.73 : 159.84 : 161.87 : 163.84 :
F/iwm 0.1724 : 0.1784 : =====  : 0.1836 : 0.1909 : 0.1867 : 0.1816 : 0.1791 : 0.1751 : 0.1768 : 0.1727 : 0.1677 :
BTC-- : $948.5 : 13,100 : x13.8X : 15,840 : $8,800 : 11,117 : $7,401 : $9,230 : $9,593 : $8,580 : $8,106 : $7,432 :
==== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg :  01/05 :  02/02 :   03/02 :  03/29  : 04/27 :  05/04 :  05/11 :  05/18 :  06/01 :
==========

[drbubb]

GCM mentioned in Seeking Alpha

A recommendation (sort of) but his info is wrong and outdated.  Doesn't take into account redemption of 2020 and 2024 debentures and new debt financing with less dilution impact.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4178773-10-best-risk-reward-leveraged-gold-stocks

more at http://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard#JVbT0ZIxiKLlBd6Y.99

Comment:

this SA-article is very bad written ...  wrong numbers und some  points about marmato nobody knows at this time...  without a PEA nobody should talk about the the economics of this project.

[drbubb]

Financial Sense Videos - two weeks ago & more

TLT /

Long Term Treasuries  etf, 20yr+ ... 10-yr :

Don Coxe: Convergence of Multiple Storm Fronts

/ 2 /

Martin Armstrong Warns on Pension Crisis, Confiscation of 401k Plans

 

[drbubb]

Financial Sense - last few days

XX:SX5E /

EURO STOXX 50 Index (INDEX) ... 10-yr :

Peter Boockvar: We Are Now Seeing the First Casualties of Monetary Tightening

"The European Central Bank is about to end QE"

may 29: Italian Bond Yields Can Go `Quite a Bit Higher,' Nutmeg CIO Says

Where is the marginal buyer of Italian debt going to come from... Spreads could blow up quite a bit

update

/ 2 /

Markets Again Worried About Europe, says Stratfor’s Adriano Bosoni

[drbubb]

Morgan Stanley Says We’re In A Bear Market But Investors Just Don’t Realize It Yet

By: alexmark

• “I think we’re in a rolling bear market,” said Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s chief U.S. equity strategist. “It’s fooling everybody at the index level, but there’s a lot of pain out there.”
• The strategist’s comment came as the S&P 500 fell 0.3 percent and the Dow Jones industrial average slipped nearly 1.2 percent.
• The most bearish strategist tracked by CNBC, Wilson has consistently forecasted that the S&P 500 will finish the year at 2,750, implying less than 1 percent upside for the rest of the year.

Morgan Stanley’s chief U.S. equity strategist believes the stock market is in the midst of a cyclical bear market that could last through the end of next year.

“I think we’re in a rolling bear market. Every sector has gone down at least 11 or 12 percent at least once this year. Some were down 18, 19, 20 percent,” Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s chief U.S. equity strategist, said on CNBC’s “Halftime Report” on Thursday. “It’s fooling everybody at the index level, but there’s a lot of pain out there: Staples, homebuilders, some of these semiconductor stocks that are more cyclical are having problems.”

Read more: WHAT REALLY HAPPENED | The History The US Government HOPES You Never Learn! http://www.whatreallyhappened.com/#ixzz5HM2ayZKT

[drbubb]

"Everything Has Gone Wrong": Soros Warns "Major" Financial Crisis Is Coming

by Tyler Durden

Wed, 05/30/2018

In a speech delivered Tuesday in Paris, billionaire investor George Soros warned that the world could be on the brink of another devastating financial crisis, as debt crises reemerge in Europe and a strengthening dollar pressures both the US's emerging- and developed-market rivals.

And Europe, with Italy dragging worries about the possible dissolution of the euro back to the forefront, won't be far behind. Political pressures like the dissolution of its transatlantic alliance with the US will eventually translate into economic harm. Presently, Europe is facing three pressing problems: The refugee crisis, the austerity policy that has hindered Europe's economic development, and territorial disintegration - not only Brexit, but the threat that countries like Italy might follow suit...

 “Brexit is an immensely damaging process harmful to both sides,” the billionaire exclaimed.

But in the near-term, the US's decision to pull out of the Iran deal is straining Europe's alliance with its most important Western partner just as the strengthening dollar is constricting financial conditions around the world.

Until recently, it could have been argued that austerity is working: the European economy is slowly improving, and Europe must simply persevere. But, looking ahead, Europe now faces the collapse of the Iran nuclear deal and the destruction of the transatlantic alliance, which is bound to have a negative effect on its economy and cause other dislocations.

The strength of the dollar is already precipitating a flight from emerging-market currencies. We may be heading for another major financial crisis. The economic stimulus of a Marshall Plan for Africa and other parts of the developing world should kick in just at the right time. That is what has led me to put forward an out-of-the-box proposal for financing it.

Soros's warning comes as Italian 2Y bond yields shoot higher by the most on record:

Adding to the urgency, it is no longer a "figure of speech" to claim that the EU is in "existential danger," Soros said. It's an obvious reality.

“The EU is in an existential crisis. Everything that could go wrong has gone wrong,” he said.

To escape the crisis, “it needs to reinvent itself.”

"The United States, for its part, has exacerbated the EU’s problems. By unilaterally withdrawing from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, President Donald Trump has effectively destroyed the transatlantic alliance. This has put additional pressure on an already beleaguered Europe. It is no longer a figure of speech to say that Europe is in existential danger; it is the harsh reality."

. . . As some will remember, Soros Fund Management - the family office that manages Soros's money, which he has mostly dedicated to his "Open Society" network of NGOs - closed most of its long-EM positions after President Trump defeated Hillary Clinton. Of course, where Soros sees danger, others see opportunity. For example, Mark Mobius "un-retired" last month to open a fund that he hopes will take advantage of opportunities amid the EM carnage, as analysts continue to see EM as the area that's most vulnerable to a re-pricing in USD.

* * *

Read the speech in full

> https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-05-29/everything-has-gone-wrong-soros-warns-major-financial-crisis-coming?utm_medium=referral&utm_source=idealmedia&utm_campaign=zerohedge.com&utm_term=68744&utm_content=2243587

[drbubb]

RIG

Transocean Ltd. (NYSE) ... update : OIH update :

[drbubb]

Yield curve shifts - Predicting Recession?

(the signals are mixed)

several participants said “it would be important to continue to monitor the slope of the yield curve, emphasizing the historical regularity that an inverted yield curve has indicated an increased risk of recession.”

So far, the yield curve hasn’t inverted, which is what happens when long-term rates move lower than shorter-term rates. An inverted yield curve often signals a recession may be coming down the pike.

However, the yield curve has flattened.

A recession is worrisome, of course, and several Fed officials are paying attention to the yield curve.

Recession fears may have caught the attention of bond traders, as long-term rates fell sharply Wednesday through Friday. The 30-year Treasury bond moved well off of its recent high and is approaching its six-week low of just under 3%.

That’s quite a reversal from all the worries about inflation less than two weeks ago.

> http://www.investmentwatchblog.com/yields-are-crashing/

A Pundit's view:

Peter Schiff - Interest Rates & Gold Will Both Go Up

 

[drbubb]

had breakfast yet? 

this monster was hungry

Snake swallows whole grown deer in 20 seconds

anaconda--
hard to believe without seeing it happen:

that is a lot of venison for one snack

[drbubb]

10 years ago in June 2008, oil prices were making a top above $140/barrel, which turned out to be an exhaustive blowoff top.  A steep collapse ensued, taking oil prices down to below $40 in January 2009.

Crude oil gives us a 10-year leading indication for what the stock market is going to do.  It is a phenomenon which has only been working for the entire 122-year history of the DJIA, so that may not be long enough yet for some people to believe in it.  Making things more complicated, it is not a precisely perfect model of future stock market action.  It is merely very good.

> http://www.investmentwatchblog.com/waiting-on-the-echo-of-crude-oils-big-drop/

[drbubb]

GOLD BACK to the UPTREND Line

HK-2840 / HK's Gold etf ... update

UK's GBS ... update

USA: GLD ... update

USA: GDX ... update : GDXJ

==

[drbubb]

KITCO

Wall St. Bearish, Main St. Bullish On Prices Kitco News Jun 1

Gold To Battle ‘The Perfect Storm’ As Markets Focus On ...Kitco News Jun 1

INTERVIEW Expect To See Gold’s Best Days After The June Fed Meeting – ...
 

VIDEO RERUN: This Is What Will Drive Gold Prices - World Gold ...

Wall Street turned bearish on the short-term direction of gold prices while Main Street remained slightly bullish, based on the Kitco News weekly survey.

Comex August gold traded on both sides of $1,300 an ounce this week, ultimately softening on Friday in the wake of a stronger-than-forecast U.S. employment report. Nonfarm payrolls climbed 223,000 in May, the Labor Department said.

Fourteen market professionals took part in the survey. There were 10 votes, or 71%, calling for gold prices to fall. There were two votes each, or 14%, for gold to rise or else trade sideways.

Meanwhile, 578 voters responded in an online Main Street survey. A total of 296 respondents, or 51%, predicted that gold prices would be higher in a week. Another 182 voters, or 31%, said gold will fall, while 100, or 17%, see a sideways market.

Gold Outlook

(Kitco News) - In a quiet week for economic data, the gold market will be laser-focused on the rapidly approaching Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting.

Among some commodity analysts, sentiment in the gold market has turned decisively bearish as prices readjust to a more certain rate hike outlook on June 13 following strong U.S. employment figures and further upside in the U.S. dollar.

The May U.S. nonfarm payrolls report took economists by surprise on Friday, with 223,000 new jobs created last month versus the expected 189,000. The unemployment rate also fell to 3.8%, marking an 18-year low.

Following the optimistic data release, all signs now point to a June rate hike, Capital Economics analyst Simona Gambarini told Kitco News on Friday. CME FedWatch Tool is currently showing a 94% probability of another 25 basis points hike in less than two weeks.

But, since the rate hike was already largely priced, most investors are now focusing on the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s press conferences scheduled for immediately after the FOMC announcement, Gambarini noted.

[drbubb]

BANNON on Trump's "economic Nationalism" etc

"If the Elites don't share, they are going to have a Revolution"

Steve Bannon extended interview on Europe's far-right and Cambridge Analytica

 

[drbubb]

BTS / Bitcoin - Bitstamp

... 6mo : 5mo : 3mo : 1mo : 1moS : 10dS : 5dS : 5dB : 2dB :