DrBubb's Diary - July 2018 Trading - v.114

[drbubb]

Dr.B's Trading Diary : 2018. Diary's 114th Month,

8 years+ since 3/09 Low : Fresh New Peak in Dec.: Dow closed 2017 @ 24,719

Top of Page Charts (Odd) : Channel-GE : MP : PP : Charts : Acore : Fringe : Ag B E G H :

Molyneux: "The West is the Best" because...

"We have Doubt, Humility & Free Speach in our SEARCH for Truth"

Stefan Molyneux Great Speech In Melbourne Australia

================

DrBubb's Diary - July 2018 Trading - v.114

The Fed's Racetrack: Gold (GLD) vs Stocks (SPY) : update :vs.CRB : GLD-hr : SPY-hr : GLD/SPYratio

 

The Fed's money-printing has maintained confidence in markets - but the money has gone not only into stocks, but also into other areas. For many months, money flowed into commodities like Gold, pushing prices higher even faster than stocks, as the chart above shows. But since Gold's peak in Aug.2011, stocks have outperformed gold. Since then, these two assets have tended to trade counter-cyclically to each other.

Gold in EURO - very worthwhile to track

Short Term:

Medium Term - 3 Years: Gold-inEUR

US Stocks: "SPX-in-Euros" .. SPX-to-EUR or SPY-to-FXE  .. update

Ratio - SPX/Euro has often moved in a nice clear channels

DrBubb's "Early Warning System"

Leading Ratio ... LQD:TLT-Weekly-3yrs : TLT-vsLQD : Copper : HG price : CU price : SPY-10/11 : SMH-6mos

I reckon that the LQD-to-TLT ratio should move in harmony with stocks, or maybe LEAD stock moves. If they are moving in different directions, then one should be cautious. (However, the value of this indicator has become suspect in recent years, after giving some false warnings.)
=====
Bullish Percentages :
BPNYA- : http://stockcharts.c...!Lh14,3]&pref=G
BPGDM : http://stockcharts.c...!Lh14,3]&pref=G
NASIT - : NAMOT : Summation Indices

INFLATION Watch / "Big Three" (SPY, GLD, DXY) .. 10d : 6mo-D : 2yr-D : 5yr-D // CU-etc

RECORD : CU may lead GLD and SPY
======

US Fed'l Debt // Formula: (Fed'l Debt - $4.0 Trillion ) x 119 +$100

Date-: DebtTr > G.Eqv /10.40 : - GLD - : - SPY - : -DIFF- : - ratio - : -- CU -- : cu/gld : - FXI - : cu-fxi : - DBA- : - BTC - :

end07: $09.23 > 0,722 : 072.2 : $082.46 : $146.21 : -63.75: 56.398% : $20.0e: XX.X% :: $ 17.05: ==== : $ 32.99 :

end08: $10.70 > 0,897 : 089.7 : $086.52 : $090.24 : -$3.72: 95.878% : $20.0e: XX.X% :: $ 29.09: ==== : $ 26.18 :

end09: $12.31 > 1,089 : 108.9 : $107.31 : $111.44 : -$4.13: 96.294% : $30.0e: XX.X% :: $ 42.26: ==== : $ 26.44 :

end10: $14.03 > 1,294: 129.4 : $138.74 : $125.75 : $12.99: 110.34% : $43.71: 31.51%: $ 43.09: $0.62: $ 32.35 : $ 00.29 :

end11: $15.22 > 1,435: 138.0 : $151.99 : $125.50 : $26.49: 121.11% : $29.29: 19.27%: $ 34.87: - 5.58: $ 28.88 : $ 04.60 :

end12: $16.43 > 1,570: 151.0 : $162.02 : $142.41 : $19.61: 113.77% : $30.34: 18.73%: $ 40.45:-10.11: $ 27.95 : $ 13.48 :

end13: $17.35 > 1,689: 162.4 : $116.12 : $184.69 : -68.57 : 062.87% : $22.27: 19.18%: $ 38.37:-16.10: $ 24.25 :$815.00 :

end14: $18.14 > 1,783 : 171.4 : $113.58 : $205.54 : -98.04 : 55.26% :: $18.09: 15.93%: $ 41.62:-23.53: $ 24.89 :$316.20 :

end15: $18.83 > 1,865 : 179.3 : $101.46 : $203.87 :-102.41: 49.77% :: 2.135 : 2.140%: $ 35.29:-00.00: $ 20.61: $433.50 :

end16

(2016)
01/29: $19.01 > 1,886 : 180.0 : $108.05 : $193.65 : - $85.60: 55.80% :: 2.060 : 1.907% $ 31.20:-00.00: $ 19.99: $375.00 :
02/29: $19.13 > 1,900 : 181.3 : $118.64 : $193.56 : - $74.98: 61.29% :: 2. ??? : 1.000% $ 30.00: -00.00: $ 20.00: $434.00 :
03/31: $19.26 > 1,916 : 182.8 : $117.64 : $205.52 : - $87.88: 57.24% :: 2. ??? : 1.000% $ 33.77: -13.17: $ 20.60: $415.00 :
04/30: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $123.65 : $206.33 : - $82.68: 59.93% :: 2. ??? : 1.000% $ 33.53: -12.45: $ 21.08: $4 ??.00 :
05/31: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $116.06 : $209.84 : - $93.78: 55.31% :: 2.080 : 1.792% $ 33.65: -12.34: $ 21.31: $526.10 :

06/30: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $126.47 : $209.48 : - $83.01: 60.37% :: 2.0 ?? : 0.000% $ 00.00: -00.00: $ 00.00: $0
07/31: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $128.98 : $217.12 : - $88.14: 59.40% :: 2.0 ?? : 0.000% $ 00.00: -00.00: $ 00.00: $0
08/31: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $124.78 : $217.38 : - $92.60: 57.40% :: 2.080 : 1.667% $ 37.08: -16.85: $ 20.23: $570.00 :

=====
ye'16 : $20.0E > 1,8 xx : 18x.x :

Date-: DebtTr > G.Eqv /10.40 : - GLD - : - SPY - : -DIFF- : - ratio - : -- CU -- : cu/gld : - FXI - : cu-fxi : - DBA- : - BTC - :

======

"GOLD Formula" is : (Fed'l Debt - $4.0 Trillion ) x 119 +$100 : US Govt Debt :: http://www.usgovernmentdebt.us/

The FED must be pleased with the way that money has flowed into stocks, away from Gold. / notes : a b c

[drbubb]

DAILY MONITOR

Month: -SPY- : Chg : volume/ VIX : GDX: +-chg: -GLD- : Chg: volume: x10.?? WTI.Cr: -DXY-- -Chg- : --TLT-: Chg : Posts/Views cum'l
2015
12-31: 203.87 - 2.06: 91.2M: 18.21 : 13.72 +0.06: 101.46 +0.04 : 3.81M: 1060.5 $37.07* 98.693 +0.413: 120.58 +0.54 : 02, 086/ 051, 1,913

 2016
03-31: 205.52 - 0.50: 79.4M: 13.95 : 19.97 - 0.26: 117.64 +0.54: 9.17M: 1233.9 $38.11* $94.63 - 0.10 : 130.61 +0.92 : 03, 096/ 1618, 4,518
06-30: 209.48 + 2.82: 143.M: 15.63 : 27.71 +0.56: 126.47 +0.63: 15.1M: 1324.7 $48.40* $95.81 +0.05 : 138.90 +0.51 : 0?, 055/ 060, 1,941
09-30: 216.30 +1.62: 98.7M: 13.29 : 26.43 - 0.26:  125.64 - 0.43: 10.8M: 1317.1 $48.24* $95.42 - 0.10 : 137.51 - 1.24/ 04, 096 : 1191, 6,335
12-30: 223.53 - 0.82: 86.9M: 14.04 : 20.92 - 0.83: 109.61  - 0.68: 8.79M: 1151.7 $53.72* 102.38 - 0.27 : 119.13 + 0.18/ 03, 096: 9396, 13876  

2017
01-31: 227.53 - 0.02 00.0M: 12.09 : 23.93 +0.78: 115.55 +1.68: 0.00M: 1211.8 $52.80* $99.74 -0.62 : 119.84 +0.57/ 08 120 : 4554, 10255
02-28: 236.47 - 0.64 69.6M: 12.92 : 22.85 +0.01: 119.23 +0.11 8.29M: 1253.9 $54.01* 101.48 +0.32 : 121.74 +0.45/ 09, 085 : 4109, 7,634
03-31: 235.74 - 0.55 56.2M: 12.37 : 22.81 +0.26: 118.72 +0.25 8.14M: 1251.2 $50.60* 100.22 -0.07 : 120.71 +0.35/ 10, 120: 17.4K, 23202
04-28: 238.08 - 0.52 50.4M: 10.82 : 22.23 +0.42: 120.77 +0.38 8.86M: 1268.3 $49.33* $99.04 - 0.15 : 122.35 +0.27/ 12, 098: 5178, 11915
05-31: 241.44 - 0.06 00.0M: 10.41 : 22.69 +0.10: 120.62 +0.48 0.00M: 1264.8: $48.32* $97.21 +0.00 : 124.14 +0.05/ 04, 106 : 976, 6,918
06-30: 241.80 +0.45 49.4M: 11.18 : 22.08 + 0.13: 118.02 -0.30 6.79M: 1242.3: $46.04* $95.64 +0.09 : 125.12 - 0.29/ 04, 095 : 723, 5,020
07-31: 246.77 -0.14 42.9M: 10.25 : 22.86 - 0.05 : 120.75 +0.06 3.82M: 1273.8 $50.17: $92.90 - 0.43 : 124.04 +0.15/ 00, 094 : 800, 5,056
08-31: 247.49 +1.48 75.8M: 10.59 : 24.72 +0.56 : 125.82 +1.46 11.3M: 1322.2 $47.23: $92.62 +0.06 : 127.99 +0.38/ 03, 091 : 894, 5,034
=====
09-29: 251.23 +0.88 60.7M: %9.51 : 22.96 -0.20 : 121.58 - 0.63 8.77M: 1284.8 $51.67: $93.07 - 0.06 : 124.76 +0.28/ 08, 067 : 1346, 4,235
10-31: 257.15 +0.40 42.7M: 10.18 : 22.48 - 0.28 : 120.67 - 0.46 3.76M: 1277.5 $54.20: $94.54 +0.01 : 124.46 +0.04/ 03, 101 : 1158, 2,371
11-30: 265.01 +2.30 104.M: 11.28 : 22.47 - 0.03 : 121.10 - 0.94 7.84M: 1276.7 $57.40: $92.97  - 0.09 : 125.12 - 0.42/ 03, 079 : 545, 2,180 :1436
12-29: 266.86 - 1.01 60.8M: 11.04 : 23.24 +0.04 : 123.65 +0.80 7.55M: 1309.3 $60.42 : $92.30 - 0.20 : 126.86 +0.20/ 05, 107 : 000, 1590

====

---: SPY- : Chg : volume/ VIX : GDX: +-chg: -GLD- : Chg: volume: x10.?? WTI.Cr: -DXY- -Chg.- : --TLT- : Chg : Posts/Views cum'l:

JAN

30: 281.76 - 2.92 116.M: 14.79 : 23.45 - 0.23 : 126.80 - 0.55 9.37M: 1340.0 $64.50 : $89.05 - 0.37 : 122.01 - 0.72/ 04, 107 : 072, 1335
31: 281.90 +0.14 97.6M: 13.54 : 23.75 +0.30 : 127.65 +0.85 13.0M: 1343.1 $64.73 : $89.11 +0.06 : 122.73 +0.72/

FEB
28: 271.65 - 2.78 101.M: 19.85 : 21.35 - 0.14 : 125.00 - 0.13 4.52M: 1317.9 $61.64 : $90.73 +0.07 : 118.75 +0.75/ 00, 076 : 000, 1093

MAR
29: 263.15 +3.32 104.M: 19.97 : 21.98 - 0.01 : 125.79 +0.06 6.84M: 1327.3 $64.94 : $90.01 -0.13 : 121.90 +0.59/ 00, 67: 000, 0880

APR
30: 264.51 - 2.05: 65.0M: 15.93 : 22.28 - 0.45 : 124.59 - 0.91 9.59M: 1319.2 $68.57 : $91.86 +0.27 : 119.10 +0.21/ 074, 0,630
MAY
30: 272.61 +3.59 63.0M: 14.94 : 22.44 +0.29 : 123.37 + 0.18 4.49M: 1306.5 $68.21 : $94.07 -0.37 : 121.42 - 0.82/
31: 270.94 - 1.67 78.4M: 15.43 : 22.34 -0.10 : 123.10 - 0.27 7.62M: 1304.7 $66.24 : $93.98 -0.09 : 121.22 - 0.20/ 00,74 : 000, 667
JUN
29: 271.28 +0.39 74.2M: 16.09 : 22.31 +0.38 : 118.65 +0.43 7.67M: 1254.5 $74.15 : $94.47 - 0.85 : 121.72 - 0.42/ 99, 100 : 000, 1026

JUL
02: 271.86 +0.58 55.5M: 15.60 : 22.08 -0.23 : 117.46 - 1.13 11.8M: 1241.7 $73.94 : $94.92 +0.05 : 121.35 - 0.37/
03: 270.90 -0.96 36.8M: 16.14 : 22.47 +0.39 : 118.65 +1.19 8.75M: 1000.0 $00.00 : $94.50 - 0.42 : 122.00 +0.65/ 00, 016 : 000, 078
05: 272.11 +1.21 00.0M: 14.97 : 22.68 +0.21 : 119.05 +0.40 0.00M: 1258.8 $72.94 : $90.00 - 0.00 : 122.35 +0.35/
06: 275.42 +2.31 56.8M: 13.37 : 22.61 - 0.07 : 118.86 - 0.19 2.90M: 1255.8 $73.80 : $93.97 - 0.00 : 122.75 +0.40/
09: 277.90 +2.48 43.5M: 12.69 : 22.55 - 0.06 : 119.15 +0.29 3.98M: 1259.6 $73.85 : $94.09 +0.12 : 121.96 - 0.79/ 00, 033 : 000, 222
10: 278.90 +1.00 46.7M: 12.64 : 22.60 +0.05 : 118.93 - 0.22 3.74M: 1255.4 $74.11 : $94.20 +0.11 : 121.95 - 0.01/ 03, 036 : 022, 244
11: 276.86 -2.04 00.0M: 13.63 : 22.00 -0.60 : 117.64 - 1.29 0.00M: 1244.4 $70.38 : $94.75 +0.55 : 122.42 +0.47/  02, 038 : 028, 272
12: 279.37 +2.51 53.9M: 12.58 : 22.14 +0.14 : 118.13 + 0.49 4.41M: 1246.6 $70.33 : $94.83 +0.08 : 122.41 - 0.01/ 00, 040 : 028, 300
13: 279.59 +0.22 00.0M: 12.18 : 21.96 - 0.18 : 117.61 - 0.52 0.00M: 1241.2 $71.01 : $94.51 - 0.32 : 122.72 - 0.49/
16: 279.34 - 0.25 38.0M: 12.83 : 21.87 - 0.09 : 117.55 - 0.06 3.64M: 1239.7 $68.06 : $94.55 +0.04 : 122.21 - 0.51/ 00, 052 : 000, 450
17: 280.47 +1.13 48.4M: 12.06 : 21.88 +0.01 : 116.28 - 1.37 7.84M: 1227.3 $68.08 : $94.97 +0.42 : 121.98 - 0.23/ 05, 057 : 054, 504
18: 281.06 +0.59 00.0M: 12.10 : 21.86 -0.02 : 116.31 +0.03 5.39M: 1228.0 $67.75 :
19: 280.00 - 1.06 00.0M: 12.87 : 21.58 - 0.28 : 115.81 +0.00 0.00M: 1224.0 $68.24 : $94.39 + 0.00 : 122.26 +0.00/
20: 279.68 - 0.32 64.9M: 12.86 : 21.78 +0.20 : 116.56 +0.75 7.65M: 1231.1 $68.26 : $94.30 - 0.09 : 120.76 - 1.50/ 00, 000 : 000, 000
23: 280.20 +0.52 41.0M: 12.62 : 21.33 - 0.45 : 116.00 - 0.56 5.90M: 1225.6 $67.89 : $94.61 +0.31 : 119.27 - 1.49/ 00, 077 : 000, 707
24: 281.61 +1.41 54.5M: 12.41 : 21.62 +0.29 : 116.04 +0.04 4.79M: 1225.5 $68.52 : $94.61 +0.00 : 119.68 +0.41/ 06, 083 : 050, 757
25: 284.01 +2.40 63.5M: 12.29 : 21.62 +0.18 : 116.68 +0.64 5.28M: 1231.8 $69.30 : $94.16 - 0.45 : 119.49 - 0.19/ 06, 089 : 045, 802
26: 283.34 - 0.67 48.3M: 12.14 : 21.39 - 0.41 : 115.77  -0.91 6.20M: 1225.7 $69.61 : $94.72 + 0.56 : 119.26 - 0.23/ 06, 095 : 060, 862
27: 281.42 - 1.92 68.9M: 13.03 : 21.32 - 0.07 : 115.83 +0.06 5.18M: 1223.0 $68.69 : $94.67 - 0.05 : 119.46 +0.20/ 03, 098 : 050, 912
30: 279.84 - 1.58 00.0M: 15.26 : 21.27 - 0.05 : 115.65 -0..18 0.00M: 1231.5 $70.13 : $94.35 - 0.32 : 119.05 - 0.41/ 06, 104 : 000. 988
31: 281.22 +1.38 57.6M: 12.83 : 21.28 +0.01 : 115.99 +0.34 5.45M: 1233.6 $68.76 : $94.55 +0.20 : 119.70 +0.65/ 04, 108 : 050, 1038

===

[drbubb]

Long Term Charts updated from time-to-time, to at least: April 30, 2017

Prices---- > YrE.'16 : YrE.'17 : change
Gold ------ : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% :
GLD ------ : 109.61 : 123.65 : +12.8% :
Ratio ------: r10.51 : r10.59 :
GDX ------ : $20.92 : $23.24 : +11.1% :
GDXJ ---- : $31.55 : $34.13 : +8.18% :
SLV-------- : $15.64 : $15.98 : +2.08% :
SHcomp : $0,000. : $3,307. :

IWM / etf for Russell-2000 - 12/31/16 : $134.85,  12/31/17 : $152.46 :

All-log : 10-yrs : 12mos // SPY ... : To-End-2015 : last-12mos

KEY CHARTS
===========

SPY / S&P500 etf - (UP) ...SPY: to 12/31/16 : $223.53,  12/31/17 : $266.86

All-log / 3yrs : 4yrs : 5yrs : 10yrs : TREND is still UP, but may be rolling over

SPX ... 10-yr

.
TLT / T-Bonds etf - (DOWN) ... TLT: to 12/31/16 : $119.13,  12/31/17 : $126.86

All / 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yr : Made an important Peak in 2016 (?) identified in prior chart here !

.
UUP / USDollar x2 etf - (Peaking?) ... to 12/31/16 : $26.46,,  12/31/17 : $24.03

All / 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yr : long ter, TREND is still UP,

.
USO / Oil etf - (Battling DOWNtrend) ... to 12/31/16 : $11.72, 12/31/17 : $12.01

All / 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yr : 10yrL : Price is battling that old Downtrend

.
XLE / Oil stocks - (Fighting back UP) ... to 12/31/16 : $75.32,  12/31/17 : $72.26

All-log / 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : TREND is still Up

.
OIH / Oil service - (Fight DOWNtrend) ... $11.72, 2016  ,  12/31/17 : $26.05

All-Log :  3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : Major Bottom in place?

.
GLD / Gold etf - (Reversing Downtrend?) ... 12/31/16 : 109.61,  12/31/17 : $123.65

All : 3yrs : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : Reversing to Up?

.
GDX / Gold stocks - (Breaking Downtrend?) ... 12/31/16 : $20.92,  12/31/17 : $23.24

GDX ... All-Log : 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : Reversed to Up in 2016 maybe?

.HUI Chart - price data goes back further ... 12/31/16 : 182.31, 2016 range: $99.19 to 286.05 : +199.4% - beta 7.64

All-data :

China's Shanghai index last bounced of a support level near 2,600
ShComp 12/31/16 : 3103.6, 2016 range: 2638.3 to 3538.7 : +34.12% - beta 1.305

CN : SHcomp ... All-Log : All-Data

===== other CHARTS =====

10yrs : SLV : GDXJ : / log : AGQ : PSLV : UGL : PHM +, GDXJ -, RGLD -, HK:HSI +, HK:12 -new,

[drbubb]

Gold's 4-6 months Cycle:

* added in edit, 5/3 : 6mo

4-6 month cycle low?

For months, I have been saying: "Low due near year-end maybe?"

"Next Cycle Low (in GDX) could be Dec. 2017" - it was! ... prior : update

Old chart - to Feb.2018

GLD, updated: 1-yr: 2-yr : 3-yr : update : prior / UK:GBS: $115.50/ HK-2840 : HK-3081:

HISTORY: The longer history of the cycles looked like this: 2013-15 :

: Low, Dec.15th,2016: 1129.8 / $103.04 = 10.96 / intraday: 1123/$103= 10.90

Look what happened after that Dec.2015 Low - a Nice Rally ! .....And then once again after a Dec. 2016 Low:

TMF (2x Bull etf of Long TBonds, like TLT)

These prices tend to move together : TMF, GDX, UGLD, SLV : Bonds, Gold stocks, Gold, and Silver.  And they have been moving in a shared 4-6 months cycle

TMF-etc... 2-yrs : 5-yrs : 6-mos : update / 10-d : prior month chart showed a divergence - but Gap of UGLD-TMF narrowed

TMF-etc.10d ... update: Chart below is updated to 5/01/2018

[drbubb]

Have we seen Gold's cyclical Low?

Last Month, we were at a "pinch point", as I identified here

======

Junior Gold Miners are coming into a major "Pinch point" - Watch for breakout over $34 (this week?)

GDXJ / Jr. Gold Miners ... 10-yr : 5-yr : 3-yrW :  3-yrD : 12-mos / 10d - Last: $33.55 +0.07 : pe: n/a , yield: 0.03% (12mos: $29.69 - 37.75)

======

[drbubb]

BRADLEY Model : "TURN dates"

SPY... 2015-2018: 12-31-16: $223.53 / 12-29-17: $266.86 : +19.4%

2016 : +Jan. 5, -May 10, +June 1, -July 5, +??, -Sep. 28, +Nov. 29

2017 : +Dec. 29, -Apr.17, +Apr.29, -Jun.21, +Aug.19, -Sep.7, +Dec.3, /

2018  : -Jan.4, +Jan.17

Model for 2017-8?: 2017 : 2016 : 2015 :

===

Historical TURN: Bonds peaked first in 2015, then the Dollar, then stocks...

TLT... 2015-2018 : 12-31-16: $119.13 / 12-31-17: $126.86 : +6.49%

USD trade-weighted dollar:

DXY ... 2015-2018 : DXY-all-data : 12-31-16: $102.36 / '17: $92.28 : -9.72%

sym: ye.2016 : ye.2017 : %.chg : 2017-H :
SPY : $223.53 : $266.86 : +19.4% : 268.60 :
TLT : $119.13 : $126.86 : +6.49% : 129.57 :
DXY : $102.21 : $92.282 : -9.72% : 103.82 :
Djia  : $19,763 : $24,719 : +25.1% : 24,876 :
GLD-: $109.61 : $123.65 : +12.8% : 128.32 :
EUR-: $1.0520 : $1.2001 : +14.1% : 1.2093 :
Dj/E : E18,786 : E20,597 : +9.64% :
PHP-: P49.606 : P50.009 : +0.00% : 52.006 :
====

OTHER Indices : USO : GLD : GDX : PHM : IYR : UGLD-vsGDX : : IMGHST.co

[drbubb]

Bitcoin fell back, and its trying to re-establish a new uptrend

The 2-3 months cycle bottomed in early Feb... and may have bottomed again

Clif High thought the price would be at $13,000 in Feb. & will reach $64k - 100k during 2018, in next wave."

Recent BITCOIN prices over 5-days - Almost Live

Bitstamp -12month chart ... update .. 12 mo w/ Cycles - bottomed early Feb. & early Apr?

BTS ... 6mo : 3mo : 1mo : 1moS : 10dS : 5dS : 5dB : 2dB :

 

1mo : 1moS : 10dS : 5dS : 5dB : 2dB :

 

All-data : 8yr : 2yr :

=====

12/31: 0.5481 x13100+0000=7180:+070:13150Mar(3950):7208/(3950:54.8%)
01/31: 0.5955 x10240-(000)=6098/0079:10319Mar(1100):6145/(0500:08.1%):+0397:10637 +600
02/28: 0.6100 x10950-(- 50)=6680: -100:10950Mar(-800):6680/(-750:11.2%):+0100:11048 +025,-.007: 11.6
MAR
03/06: 0.6155 x10880-(200)=6696:+045:10925Mar -1600:6724/-2350:34.2%: --550:11085 +205, -.011: 11.7

04/21: 0.6900 x$8820- +200 =6086 +015:$8835Jun(+403):6096/(+603+9.89%):+0000:$8830 +010,-.000: 9.47
04/29: 0.6942 x$9407- +100 =6530 +010:$9417Jun(+203):6537/(+303+4.64%):+0000:$9,477 +070,-.000: 9.65
05/05: 0.6937 x$9846(+000) =6830 +238:10,084Jun(+003):6995/(+003+0.04%):+0000:10,131+285,-.000: 10.1H
06/02: 0.6933 x$7477(+000) =5184 +020:$7,497Jun(+003):5198/(+003+0.06%):+0000:$7,559+082,-.000: 9.25H
7517
======
-Bonus: 0.225 x12750=$3337; x$7,497= $1687: 3511: H:4726 =1215 / To H: $9,249
======
-Bonus: 0.225 x12750=$3337; x10,084= $2269: 4726: H:4726 / New High! $10,084

[drbubb]

WEEKLY UPDATE

 ==== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg :   03/29  :  04/27 :  06/01 :  06/08 : 06/15 :  06/22 :   06/29 :
Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1327.3 : 1323.4 : 1299.3 : 1302.7 : 1278.5 : 1270.7 : 1254.5 :
GLD- : 109.61 : 123.65 : +12.8% : 125.79 : 125.50 : 122.49 : 123.01 : 121.34 : 120.34 : 118.65 :
SPY- : 223.53 : 266.86 : +19.4% : 263.15 : 266.56 : 270.94 : 278.19 : 277.13 : 274.74 : 271.28 :
SPX- : 2238.8 : 2673.6 : +19.4% : 2691.3 : 2640.9 : 2669.9 : 2734.6 : 2779.0 : 2754.9 : 2718.4 :
Sp/Au 194.4%: 204.2%: ====== : 219.0%: 201.7%: 210.5%: 213.3%: 217.4%: 216.8%: 216.7% :
XLE : $75.32 : $72.24 : -4.09%: $67.41: $73.82 : $76.38 : $76.90: $74.17 : $75.15 : $75.94 :
WTIc: $53.72 : $60.42 : +12.4% : $64.94 : $68.10 : $65.81 : $65.74 : $65.06 : $68.58 : $74.15 :
Au/Wt:  r-21.4 :  r-21.7 : ====== : r-20.44 : r-19.43 : r-19.74 : r19.82 : r-19.65 : r-18.58 : r16.92 :
Ngas: $3.350 : $2.950 : - 11.9% : $2.730 : $2.770 : $2.960 : $2.890 : $3.020 : $2.940 : $2.920 :
Cop'r: $2.510 : $3.305 : +31.7% : $3.030 : $3.050 : $3.100 : $3.300 : $3.140 : $3.030 : $2.970 :
Weat : 408.00 : 426.25 : +4.47% : 451.00 : 498.50 : 523.12 : 520.00 : 499.50 : 504.25 : 501.25 :
Corn : 352.00 : 350.75 : - 0.36% : 387.75 : 398.50 : 391.50 : 377.75 : 361.25 : 357.25 : 371.25 :
CRB- : 192.51 : 193.86 : +0.07% : 195.36 : 201.39: 201.71 : 200.04 : 196.24 : 197.53 : 200.39 :
DBA : $19.97 : $18.76 : -6.06%: $18.18: $19.22: $19.14 : $18.77 : $18.46 : $18.21 : $18.03 :
D/crb: 10.37% :  9.67% : ====== :  9.31% :   9.54% :  9.49%  :  9.38%  :  9.41% :  9.22% :  8.99% :
Xle/D: r-3.770 : r-3.850: +2.14%: r-3.707 : r3.841 : r-3.990 : R-4.097 : r-4.018 : r-4.127 : r-4.212 :
DXY- : 102.38 : $92.30 : - 9.85% :: $89.81 : $91.53 : $94.16 : $93.54 : $94.45 : $94.18 : $94.47 :
TLT- : 119.13 : 126.86 : + 6.49% : 121.90 : 118.89 : 120.30 : 119.53 : 120.38 : 120.53 : 121.72 :
====
Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1327.3 : 1323.4 : 1299.3 : 1302.7 : 1278.5 : 1270.7 : 1254.5 :
Au/hd: r1.401 : r1.58E : ====== : r-1.569 : r-1.519 : r-1.55E : r-1.571 : r-1.543 : r-1.54E : r-1.532 :
Hold : 822.17 : 830.00 : +01.0% : 846.12 : 871.20 : 838.EE  : 828.78 : 828.76 : 825.EE- : 819.04 :
WPM : $19.32 : $22.27 : +15.3% : $20.37 : $21.35 : $21.91 : $22.17 : $22.15 : $21.69 : $22.06 :
GDX- : $20.92 : $23.24 : +11.1% : $21.98 : $22.73 : $22.31 : $22.36 : $22.23 : $22.18 : $22.31 :
Gdxj : $31.55 : $34.13 : +8.18% : $32.15 : $33.03 : $32.80 : $32.78 : $32.71 : $32.78 : $32.70 :
SIL - : $32.11 : $32.64 : +1.65% : $30.72 : $30.94 : $30.54 : $30.21 : $29.57 : $29.30 : $28.88 :
/SLV: R2.053 : R2.042 : - 0.54% : R1.994 : R1.987 : R1.978 : r1.914 : R1.910 : R1.890 : R1.910 :
SLV- : $15.64 : $15.98 : +2.08% : $15.41 : $15.57 : $15.44 : $15.78 : $15.60 : $15.50 : $15.15 :
Silvr : 16.580 : 17.150 : +3.44% :  16.268 : 16.500 : 16.440 : 16.780 : 16.480 : 16.460 : 16.200 :
PHM: $18.38 : $33.34 : +81.4% : $29.49 : $31.06 : $30.36 :  $32.56 : $30.37 : $28.78 : $28.75 :
EEM- : $35.01 : $47.30 : +35.1% : $48.28 : $47.26 : $46.33 : $46.33 : $45.23 : $43.92 : $43.33 :
ShCm: 3103.7 : 3307.2 : +6.56% : 3168.9: 3082.2 : 3075.1 : 3067.1 : 3021.9 : 2889.8 : 2847.4 :
PhpSi: 6840.6 : 8558.4 : +25.1% : 7979.8: 7721.0 : 7630.3 : 7740.7 : 7529.5 : 7063.2 : 7193.7 :
XLF-  : $23.25 : $27.19 : +16.9% : $27.57: $27.70 : $27.48 : $28.08 : $27.47 : $27.07 : $26.59 :
IWM- : 134.85 : 152.43 : +13.0% : 151.83: 154.60 : 163.84 : 166.52 : 167.81 : 167.82 : 163.77 :
F/iwm 0.1724 : 0.1784 : =====  : 0.1816 : 0.1791 : 0.1677 : 0.1686 : 0.1637 : 0.1613 : 0.1624 :
BTC-- : $948.5 : 13,100 : x13.8X : $7,401 : $9,230 : $7,432 : $7,620 : $6,545 : $6,138 : $5,883  :
==== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg :  03/29  : 04/27 :  06/01 :   06/08 :  06/15 :   06/22 :  06/29 :

SPX -to Gold - at an extreme?

[drbubb]

SELLING Domain Names

I stumbled across this by accident

http://www.newreach.com/acquisition.html

KEY ASPECTS OF OUR SERVICE

1) Locating and approaching the owner(s) of appropriate domain(s).
2) Consulting with you to determine what's best for you based on your budget and purpose for acquiring the domain.
3) Organizing and conveniently presenting to you all the best potential options.
4) Negotiation expertise. Applied to acquire the domain as cheap as possible.
5) Providing assistance with the entire process of buying the domain name.
6) If desired, ensuring your information is kept private from the seller.

TERMS

Commission range:  10%-20% of the sale price.
(Will depend on cost of domain and other factors.)

 

[drbubb]

Chakra energy: Male vs Female

> http://www.healing-art-community.com/the-seven-major-chakras/

[drbubb]

MARKET CYCLES

Gold and Property appear to be counter-cyclical

Pulte (PHM) vs. Gold (GLD) ... update / 3-yrs :

RED arrow: Sell PHM, Buy Gold / Blue arrow: Buy PHM, Sell Gold

3-years

RATIO : PHM-to-GLD

 

[drbubb]

Oil prices slide after Trump hints at bigger production rise from Saudis...

Oil prices ease on concerns about higher global production

Published: July 2, 2018

AFP/Getty Images

 

Oil futures kicked off the second half of the year with some losses on Monday, amid concerns global oil producers could bump up production more than investors expect.

Crude contracts pared bigger losses earlier stemming from a weekend tweet from President Donald Trump who hinted of a big potential production increase from Saudi Arabia.

August light, sweet crude on the New York Mercantile Exchange  CLQ8, -0.76%  was recently down 22 cents to $73.90 a barrel. September Brent LCOU8, -1.19%  fell around 43 cents, or 0.6%, to $78.80 a barrel.

WTI crude notched another finish at its highest since November 2014 on Friday, while also logging strong weekly, monthly, quarterly and first-half 2018 gains. Prices have driven higher by long-running efforts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to reduce production, anticipated increases in demand and supply disruptions.

Brent crude logged its best finish since May on Friday, after also seeing strong gains in the first half of the year.

[drbubb]

SPY Target?:

264-265 ? ... update

12/31: 266.86 ==== : ===== / 11.04% / Jan2019: b-o: $285P / $285C: Straddle/  J2020 (%SPY) d>1.18 /Sqrt= aVix : %VIX
02/02: 275.45 - 6.13  - 2.18%/ 17.31%/ $19.43-19.85: $19.64 / $11.25: $30.89 / $48.00 (11.21%) 351d /.981= 11.43: 66.0% :
06/21 : 274.24 - 1.74 - 0.63%/ 14.64%/ $15.67-15.92: $15.70 / $06.13: $21.83 / $41.65 (07.96%) 212d /.762= 10.45: 71.4% :
06/25 : 271.00 - 3.74 - 1.36%/ 17.44%/ $17.79-18.19: $17.99 / $05.38: $23.37 / $43.00 (08.62%) 208d /.755= 11.42: 65.5% :
06/27 : 269.35 - 2.25 - 0.87%/ 17.91%/ $18.92-19.27: $19.10 / $04.69: $23.79 / $42.00 (08.83%) 206d /.751= 11.76: 65.6% :
06/29 : 271.28 +0.39 +0.14%/  17.62%/ $17.59-17.81: $17.70 / $05.00: $22.70 / $41.36 (08.37%) 204d /.748= 11.19: 63.2% :

[drbubb]

GLD - weekly : 3yr-GLD : GBS : HK2840 : HK3081/

KITCO headlines

BAML Continues To See $1,400 Gold By Year End Despite A ... Kitco NewsJul 2

Gold, Silver Can't Withstand U.S. Dollar Strength ... Kitco NewsJul 2

Investors Need This To Get Excited About Gold Again ... Kitco Video NewsJul 2

Money Managers’ Net Bullish Positioning In Gold Futures Disappears ... Kitco NewsJul 2

In a report Monday, analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAML), reiterated their forecast for gold prices to average the fourth quarter around $1,400 an ounce. At the same time, the bank sees silver prices averaging $17.50 in the final three months of 2018.

The bank said in its report that growing geopolitical tensions, escalating global trade wars and rising inflation pressures will remains supportive of the precious metals.

“We note that the business cycle is maturing and the ongoing uncertainty around trade is not helping at this junction,” the analysts said in their report. “At the same time, inflation has been picking up (shorting Treasuries is one of the most crowded trades), a combination which may ultimately bring gold buyers back into the market.”

The bank’s forecasts come as gold prices pushed to a new 12-months low at the start of a shortened trading week. Silver fell to a fresh seven-month low. August gold futures settled Monday at $1,241.70 an ounce, down 1% on the day; meanwhile, September silver futures settled the session at $15.835 an ounce, down nearly 2% on the day.

The analysts said that the U.S. dollar remains the most significant risk for the precious metals market. The U.S. dollar index is trading near a one-year high, at 95.05 points.

Looking ahead, the analysts said that they see further room for the U.S. dollar to rise against the euro, which has the biggest weighting in the dollar index. BAML sees higher U.S. interest rates driving the U.S. dollar higher through the rest of the year.

[hector]

Still bullish on gold but I dare not increase my position. This deflation we've seen could continue to suck up all liquidity. Good thing I didn't jump into silver as well.

[drbubb]

I waded in (to Silver) with one foot so far, and will be adding more... progressively

[drbubb]

Something's changing - The Fall is Silver may be done

RATIO Updated.

On June 10th, I posted this

SLV & SIL-etc : 5d : 10d : 2mo : 6mo : SIL-$30.21 /SLV-$15.78  = Ratio: 1.914 / narrowed by 3.5% in 10 days

UPDATE : to 7/03/2018 / Before July 4th holiday

SIL $29.11 +0.49 / SLV $15.03 +0.12 = Ratio: 1.937 Tuesday from 1.920, on Monday
gdx $22.47 +0.39, gdxj $33.00 +0.64

FRES.L / FNLPF may be about to recover... post-Mexican-election ... update

==

[drbubb]

This is REMARKABLE ! 1.2 Million views in less than two days.
There must be such a strong hunger for the Truths revealed here

Joe Rogan Experience #1139 - Jordan Peterson

=

 

GO TO 2;27 - to really Understand this TAKEOFF of Long Form conversation

[drbubb]

Platinum Bounces Off 14-Year Lows

Neils Christensen Tuesday July 03, 2018

Kitco News

Share this article:

(Kitco News) - Bargain hunting is helping to support platinum prices Tuesday after the market dropped to its lowest level in 14 years.

Overnight platinum futures dropped to $800 an ounce, a price not seen since December 2008. However, prices have modestly recovered with October platinum futures last trading at $844.30 an ounce, up almost 4% on the day.

Platinum prices have dropped more than 18% since its highs at $1,033 an ounce, at the start of the year.

At it’s session lows, commodity analyst at Commerzbank noted that, “The price discount on platinum as compared with gold has widened to a record-high $440.”

According to some analysts, the market has been sensitive to intensifying global trade issues as the auto sector could see a significant hit from the U.S. government threatening to place a 20% tariff on imported cars from Europe.

“Market participants clearly see a risk for platinum of the trade dispute being extended to include cars,” said Commerzbank.

The auto sector represents significant industrial demand for platinum as the precious metal is a critical component in catalytic converters, particularly for diesel engines.

In a report, Monday, Jonathan Butler, precious metals strategist at Mitsubishi Corporation said that platinum demand from European automakers is particularly sensitive to escalating trade tensions with the U.S.

> http://www.kitco.com/news/2018-07-03/Platinum-Bounces-Off-14-Year-Lows.html

[drbubb]

WHY is Russia accumulating Gold

Forget U.S. Dollar, Gold Is The Global Reserve Currency – Frank Holmes

Jun 29, 2018

Guest(s): Frank Holmes CEO, U.S. Global Investors

Trade competitors to the U.S., like Russia and China, have been regularly stock piling gold to hedge against the unpredictability of U.S.
“Every month, Russia continues to accumulate gold, just like China. Why is that? Because there’s a real movement, that’s very slow and gradual, not to trust the U.S. dollar,” Holmes told Kitco News.
Holmes noted that with global trade under fire from protectionist policies, the U.S. dollar can no longer be depended upon by other major economies as a safe haven.
“This thing on tariffs that Trump has been escalating now, has slowly been creeping for the last 18 years. It’s interesting that the Renminbi wants to be a reputable trading currency, well, countries want gold as a backdrop as a guarantee against the Renminbi,” he said.

/ 2 /

Things Are About to Heat Up for Gold

Jul 03, 2018

Guest(s): Chris Mancini Mining Analyst, Gabelli Funds

Gold has been held back by a stronger U.S. dollar but the yellow metal could get a boost if the Federal Reserve reigns in on rate hikes, this according to Chris Mancini, research analyst at Gabelli Funds.
“I think what ultimately drives the gold price higher will be the Fed pausing and then the market pricing in the Fed easing. And so if the Fed is easing while the ECB [European Central Bank] is printing and the BoJ [Bank of Japan] are both printing money then I think gold will do really well,” Mancini told Kitco News.

/ 3 /

 

Is It Prime Time For Gold's Bounce Back? Peter Hug

Guest(s): Peter Hug Global Trading Director, Kitco Metals

Gold may be overdue for a corrective bounce, but investors should not expect much upward momentum soon, said Peter Hug, global trading director of Kitco Metals.
“I’m not bearish, bearish, I think we can get a bounce off this $1,250 level, we also have the June quarter end coming up, so expect some volatility tomorrow and Friday,” Hug told Kitco News.
Hug noted that from a technical level, gold should hold the $1,251 an ounce level.
“If we lose that level then from a technical perspective I think we have further to go down. On the upside you need a breakout about $1,267 [an ounce] to confirm upside momentum,” he said.

[drbubb]

Has Gold Price Bottomed?

Todd 'Bubba' Horwitz

Before hitting rock bottom, we must admit there is a problem. We have certainly seen that the problem in gold too many was bottom fishing and not admitting there was a problem. Gold appears to have found the lows at $1,240 and is trading higher this morning.

This could be just a dead-cat bounce or a short-covering rally, but the fact that the lows held could be the start of something. We never know for sure, but the probabilities indicate that gold and silver have room to rally.

Today is a short day with markets closing at 1 p.m. EDT. The set-up for gold and silver are good with the Fed minutes on Thursday and the jobs number on Friday. As long as gold stays above $1,240, we will remain long, but we have a defined exit in case this is just another relapse.

> http://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2018-07-03/Has-Gold-Price-Bottomed.html

[drbubb]

Rife With Anxiety, Markets Are Churning at the Fastest Rate Since 2008...

Once the hallmark of this bull run, complacency has made way for angst.

From junk bonds to emerging-market stocks, market turnover is through the roof, reaching multi-year highs. Within the S&P 500 Index, investors traded more than $2.9 trillion worth of shares in each of the past two quarters, a feat last achieved in early 2008.

Burgeoning uncertainty -- from monetary policy and protectionism, to cracks in the synchronized growth story -- has spurred elevated trading across assets.

 

 

“Market turnover tends to be high when uncertainty is high, as institutional investors tend to reshuffle their portfolios,” JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists including Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote in a note last month. “Negative growth revisions coupled with political and policy risks including the Italian crisis and trade war risks are creating a lot more uncertainty this year relative to last year.”

It’s a similar story for developing-nation assets at the mercy of a strengthening U.S. dollar and trade tensions. Volume on the MSCI Emerging Market index reached $1.9 trillion in the three months through June, the most since 1998 when a wave of currency devaluations and defaults ripped through emerging economies from Thailand to Russia.

 

 

Churn on the most popular exchange-traded funds has similarly surged. ETF trading typically picks up during major macro events, as investors hedge and move positions with broad exposures. The iShares high yield credit ETF saw record quarterly turnover this year, while the largest stock ETFs had the most tumultuous first half in as much as a decade.

[drbubb]

BITCOIN breaking downtrend / bts

Cryptos Shake Off Binance-Shutdown Fears, Bitcoin Tests 4-Week Highs

In an unusual show of resilience for the cryptocurrency space, overnight anxiety surrounding headlines that Binance - the biggest crypto exchange in world - suspended all trading and withdrawal services has been shrugged off and Bitcoin is testing $6,800 - near one-month highs...

[drbubb]

Mall Vacancies Hits 6-Year High ... SEARS adds MORE stores to closings list

 

Overview of nearly four decades, Mall vacancy rate, via Reis

And then the great recession hit, immediately after which retail vacancies peaked at 9.4% by the middle of 2011. Left in the wake were mall staples like RadioShack, Curc The Limited, Payless, Sam Goody, Abercrombie & Fitch, Borders, and the now massive empty retail spaces of Toys R Us, Babies R Us, the Gap, Banana Republic, and many more stores closing by the dozens and hundreds. 

Source: Business Insider, 2018 retail store closings

According to Reis. the liquidation of Toy R Us put the most sizable dent in vacancy rates among retailer closings in the last nine years. If malls and strip centers don't sparkle like they did in the 90's, one major element behind the toy giant's decline is indicative of a broader symptom: as we explained spending the majority of your FCF on debt service while ignoring capital improvements and store remodels in the age of Amazon is a doomed long-term business strategy for a bricks-and-mortar retailer.

Building like there's no tomorrow is also: retailers were once rewarded for opening as many stores as possible as if square footage was synonymous with success of a business, and then came one-click shopping and an increasing accompanying consumer aversion to visiting stale and aging storefronts.  

As to strip malls, perhaps always considered the least glamorous segment in retail, new figures show they are taking the biggest hit, with their second quarter vacancy rate reaching 10.2% resulting in 3.8 million square feet of empty space. Vacancies increased in 55 of the 77 metropolitan areas studied by Reis, numbers not expected to improve in the near future, as a recent report from Credit Suisse has predicted that 25 percent of U.S. malls will close by 2022 — some 275 shopping centers in the next five years.

Read more: WHAT REALLY HAPPENED | The History The US Government HOPES You Never Learn! http://www.whatreallyhappened.com/#ixzz5KKCLvo00

[drbubb]

Every Inflation Measurement Is Increasing

By: alexmark

The year over year core PCE price index was up 1.955% in May. If you round the data up, the Fed has finally reached its target for 2% inflation. This means it beat out expectations by about half of a basis point since the expectation was for 1.9%. It was higher than last month’s report of 1.81%. The month over month core PCE and headline PCE price indexes showed 0.2% growth which met estimates. Finally, the headline PCE price index was up 2.3% because of higher oil prices.

The core PCE is one of the lowest measures of inflation as the core PPI is at 2.4% and the core CPI is at 2.2%. The core PCE being at or above 2% is so rare that it has only occurred 4 months in this 9 year expansion. The hope for those who want inflation to keep increasing is that the rate will stay high, unlike the bouts of inflation in early 2012 and mid to late 2016 because the labor market is tighter and the supply chain is overheated as evidenced by the regional Fed manufacturing surveys. The bears on inflation will point out that the year over year comparisons in core PCE were helped by easy year over year comparisons just like the other short-term increases in previous years. As you can see from the Macrobond chart below, the inflation rate in May 2017 fell to 1.48%. The comparisons will stay easy for the next 3 months until the core PCE growth in 2017 bottoms at 1.3% in August. If you look at a 2 year stacked growth rate, the April report showed 3.39% growth and the May report showed 3.43% growth, not much of a difference.

Source: Macrobond

What Does This Mean?

For core PCE growth to hit 2% was long in the making for those whose goal it was to reach it, namely the Fed. After finally achieving its goal, the Fed won’t change anything because it has already stated it will have a symmetric policy. This means the average for the cycle should be 2%. The 2% target won’t act as a ceiling which means the Fed won’t hike rates quickly when it reaches its goal.