DrBubb's Diary - Oct. 2018 Trading - v.117

[drbubb]

Dr.B's Trading Diary : 2018. Diary's 117th Month,

8 years+ since 3/09 Low : Fresh New Peak in Dec.: Dow closed 2017 @ 24,719

Top of Page Charts (Odd) : Channel-GE : MP : PP : Charts : Acore : Fringe : Ag B E G H :

Everything will FLIP,...

xxx

> FLIP the Trump Card:

================

DrBubb's Diary - Oct. 2018 Trading - v.117

The Fed's Racetrack: Gold (GLD) vs Stocks (SPY) : update :vs.CRB : GLD-hr : SPY-hr : GLD/SPYratio

The Fed's money-printing has maintained confidence in markets - but the money has gone not only into stocks, but also into other areas. For many months, money flowed into commodities like Gold, pushing prices higher even faster than stocks, as the chart above shows. But since Gold's peak in Aug.2011, stocks have outperformed gold. Since then, these two assets have tended to trade counter-cyclically to each other.

Gold in EURO - very worthwhile to track

Short Term:

Medium Term - 3 Years: Gold-inEUR

 

US Stocks: "SPX-in-Euros" .. SPX-to-EUR or SPY-to-FXE  .. update

Ratio - SPX/Euro has often moved in a nice clear channels

DrBubb's "Early Warning System"

Leading Ratio ... LQD:TLT-Weekly-3yrs : TLT-vsLQD : Copper : HG price : CU price : SPY-10/11 : SMH-6mos

I reckon that the LQD-to-TLT ratio should move in harmony with stocks, or maybe LEAD stock moves. If they are moving in different directions, then one should be cautious. (However, the value of this indicator has become suspect in recent years, after giving some false warnings.)
=====
Bullish Percentages :
BPNYA- : http://stockcharts.c...!Lh14,3]&pref=G
BPGDM : http://stockcharts.c...!Lh14,3]&pref=G
NASIT - : NAMOT : Summation Indices

INFLATION Watch / "Drivers" (SPY, GLD, DXY) .. 10d : 6mo-D : 2yr-D : 5yr-D // CU-etc : w/XLE :

: w/XLE :

RECORD : CU may lead GLD and SPY
======

US Fed'l Debt // Formula: (Fed'l Debt - $4.0 Trillion ) x 119 +$100

Date-: DebtTr > G.Eqv /10.40 : - GLD - : - SPY - : -DIFF- : - ratio - : -- CU -- : cu/gld : - FXI - : cu-fxi : - DBA- : - BTC - :

end07: $09.23 > 0,722 : 072.2 : $082.46 : $146.21 : -63.75: 56.398% : $20.0e: XX.X% :: $ 17.05: ==== : $ 32.99 :

end08: $10.70 > 0,897 : 089.7 : $086.52 : $090.24 : -$3.72: 95.878% : $20.0e: XX.X% :: $ 29.09: ==== : $ 26.18 :

end09: $12.31 > 1,089 : 108.9 : $107.31 : $111.44 : -$4.13: 96.294% : $30.0e: XX.X% :: $ 42.26: ==== : $ 26.44 :

end10: $14.03 > 1,294: 129.4 : $138.74 : $125.75 : $12.99: 110.34% : $43.71: 31.51%: $ 43.09: $0.62: $ 32.35 : $ 00.29 :

end11: $15.22 > 1,435: 138.0 : $151.99 : $125.50 : $26.49: 121.11% : $29.29: 19.27%: $ 34.87: - 5.58: $ 28.88 : $ 04.60 :

end12: $16.43 > 1,570: 151.0 : $162.02 : $142.41 : $19.61: 113.77% : $30.34: 18.73%: $ 40.45:-10.11: $ 27.95 : $ 13.48 :

end13: $17.35 > 1,689: 162.4 : $116.12 : $184.69 : -68.57 : 062.87% : $22.27: 19.18%: $ 38.37:-16.10: $ 24.25 :$815.00 :

end14: $18.14 > 1,783 : 171.4 : $113.58 : $205.54 : -98.04 : 55.26% :: $18.09: 15.93%: $ 41.62:-23.53: $ 24.89 :$316.20 :

end15: $18.83 > 1,865 : 179.3 : $101.46 : $203.87 :-102.41: 49.77% :: 2.135 : 2.140%: $ 35.29:-00.00: $ 20.61: $433.50 :

end16

(2016)
01/29: $19.01 > 1,886 : 180.0 : $108.05 : $193.65 : - $85.60: 55.80% :: 2.060 : 1.907% $ 31.20:-00.00: $ 19.99: $375.00 :
02/29: $19.13 > 1,900 : 181.3 : $118.64 : $193.56 : - $74.98: 61.29% :: 2. ??? : 1.000% $ 30.00: -00.00: $ 20.00: $434.00 :
03/31: $19.26 > 1,916 : 182.8 : $117.64 : $205.52 : - $87.88: 57.24% :: 2. ??? : 1.000% $ 33.77: -13.17: $ 20.60: $415.00 :
04/30: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $123.65 : $206.33 : - $82.68: 59.93% :: 2. ??? : 1.000% $ 33.53: -12.45: $ 21.08: $4 ??.00 :
05/31: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $116.06 : $209.84 : - $93.78: 55.31% :: 2.080 : 1.792% $ 33.65: -12.34: $ 21.31: $526.10 :

06/30: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $126.47 : $209.48 : - $83.01: 60.37% :: 2.0 ?? : 0.000% $ 00.00: -00.00: $ 00.00: $0
07/31: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $128.98 : $217.12 : - $88.14: 59.40% :: 2.0 ?? : 0.000% $ 00.00: -00.00: $ 00.00: $0
08/31: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $124.78 : $217.38 : - $92.60: 57.40% :: 2.080 : 1.667% $ 37.08: -16.85: $ 20.23: $570.00 :

=====
ye'16 : $20.0E > 1,8 xx : 18x.x :

Date-: DebtTr > G.Eqv /10.40 : - GLD - : - SPY - : -DIFF- : - ratio - : -- CU -- : cu/gld : - FXI - : cu-fxi : - DBA- : - BTC - :

======

"GOLD Formula" is : (Fed'l Debt - $4.0 Trillion ) x 119 +$100 : US Govt Debt :: http://www.usgovernmentdebt.us/

The FED must be pleased with the way that money has flowed into stocks, away from Gold. / notes : a b c

[drbubb]

DAILY MONITOR

Month: -SPY- : Chg : volume/ VIX : GDX: +-chg: -GLD- : Chg: volume: x10.?? WTI.Cr: -DXY-- -Chg- : --TLT-: Chg : Posts/Views cum'l
2015
12-31: 203.87 - 2.06: 91.2M: 18.21 : 13.72 +0.06: 101.46 +0.04 : 3.81M: 1060.5 $37.07* 98.693 +0.413: 120.58 +0.54 : 02, 086/ 051, 1,913

 2016
03-31: 205.52 - 0.50: 79.4M: 13.95 : 19.97 - 0.26: 117.64 +0.54: 9.17M: 1233.9 $38.11* $94.63 - 0.10 : 130.61 +0.92 : 03, 096/ 1618, 4,518
06-30: 209.48 + 2.82: 143.M: 15.63 : 27.71 +0.56: 126.47 +0.63: 15.1M: 1324.7 $48.40* $95.81 +0.05 : 138.90 +0.51 : 0?, 055/ 060, 1,941
09-30: 216.30 +1.62: 98.7M: 13.29 : 26.43 - 0.26:  125.64 - 0.43: 10.8M: 1317.1 $48.24* $95.42 - 0.10 : 137.51 - 1.24/ 04, 096 : 1191, 6,335
12-30: 223.53 - 0.82: 86.9M: 14.04 : 20.92 - 0.83: 109.61  - 0.68: 8.79M: 1151.7 $53.72* 102.38 - 0.27 : 119.13 + 0.18/ 03, 096: 9396, 13876  

2017
01-31: 227.53 - 0.02 00.0M: 12.09 : 23.93 +0.78: 115.55 +1.68: 0.00M: 1211.8 $52.80* $99.74 -0.62 : 119.84 +0.57/ 08 120 : 4554, 10255
02-28: 236.47 - 0.64 69.6M: 12.92 : 22.85 +0.01: 119.23 +0.11 8.29M: 1253.9 $54.01* 101.48 +0.32 : 121.74 +0.45/ 09, 085 : 4109, 7,634
03-31: 235.74 - 0.55 56.2M: 12.37 : 22.81 +0.26: 118.72 +0.25 8.14M: 1251.2 $50.60* 100.22 -0.07 : 120.71 +0.35/ 10, 120: 17.4K, 23202
04-28: 238.08 - 0.52 50.4M: 10.82 : 22.23 +0.42: 120.77 +0.38 8.86M: 1268.3 $49.33* $99.04 - 0.15 : 122.35 +0.27/ 12, 098: 5178, 11915
05-31: 241.44 - 0.06 00.0M: 10.41 : 22.69 +0.10: 120.62 +0.48 0.00M: 1264.8: $48.32* $97.21 +0.00 : 124.14 +0.05/ 04, 106 : 976, 6,918
06-30: 241.80 +0.45 49.4M: 11.18 : 22.08 + 0.13: 118.02 -0.30 6.79M: 1242.3: $46.04* $95.64 +0.09 : 125.12 - 0.29/ 04, 095 : 723, 5,020
07-31: 246.77 -0.14 42.9M: 10.25 : 22.86 - 0.05 : 120.75 +0.06 3.82M: 1273.8 $50.17: $92.90 - 0.43 : 124.04 +0.15/ 00, 094 : 800, 5,056
08-31: 247.49 +1.48 75.8M: 10.59 : 24.72 +0.56 : 125.82 +1.46 11.3M: 1322.2 $47.23: $92.62 +0.06 : 127.99 +0.38/ 03, 091 : 894, 5,034
=====
09-29: 251.23 +0.88 60.7M: %9.51 : 22.96 -0.20 : 121.58 - 0.63 8.77M: 1284.8 $51.67: $93.07 - 0.06 : 124.76 +0.28/ 08, 067 : 1346, 4,235
10-31: 257.15 +0.40 42.7M: 10.18 : 22.48 - 0.28 : 120.67 - 0.46 3.76M: 1277.5 $54.20: $94.54 +0.01 : 124.46 +0.04/ 03, 101 : 1158, 2,371
11-30: 265.01 +2.30 104.M: 11.28 : 22.47 - 0.03 : 121.10 - 0.94 7.84M: 1276.7 $57.40: $92.97  - 0.09 : 125.12 - 0.42/ 03, 079 : 545, 2,180 :1436
12-29: 266.86 - 1.01 60.8M: 11.04 : 23.24 +0.04 : 123.65 +0.80 7.55M: 1309.3 $60.42 : $92.30 - 0.20 : 126.86 +0.20/ 05, 107 : 000, 1590

====

---: SPY- : Chg : volume/ VIX : GDX: +-chg: -GLD- : Chg: volume: x10.?? WTI.Cr: -DXY- -Chg.- : --TLT- : Chg : Posts/Views cum'l:

JAN

30: 281.76 - 2.92 116.M: 14.79 : 23.45 - 0.23 : 126.80 - 0.55 9.37M: 1340.0 $64.50 : $89.05 - 0.37 : 122.01 - 0.72/ 04, 107 : 072, 1335
31: 281.90 +0.14 97.6M: 13.54 : 23.75 +0.30 : 127.65 +0.85 13.0M: 1343.1 $64.73 : $89.11 +0.06 : 122.73 +0.72/

FEB
28: 271.65 - 2.78 101.M: 19.85 : 21.35 - 0.14 : 125.00 - 0.13 4.52M: 1317.9 $61.64 : $90.73 +0.07 : 118.75 +0.75/ 00, 076 : 000, 1093

MAR
29: 263.15 +3.32 104.M: 19.97 : 21.98 - 0.01 : 125.79 +0.06 6.84M: 1327.3 $64.94 : $90.01 -0.13 : 121.90 +0.59/ 00, 67: 000, 0880

APR
30: 264.51 - 2.05: 65.0M: 15.93 : 22.28 - 0.45 : 124.59 - 0.91 9.59M: 1319.2 $68.57 : $91.86 +0.27 : 119.10 +0.21/ 074, 0,630
MAY
30: 272.61 +3.59 63.0M: 14.94 : 22.44 +0.29 : 123.37 + 0.18 4.49M: 1306.5 $68.21 : $94.07 -0.37 : 121.42 - 0.82/
31: 270.94 - 1.67 78.4M: 15.43 : 22.34 -0.10 : 123.10 - 0.27 7.62M: 1304.7 $66.24 : $93.98 -0.09 : 121.22 - 0.20/ 00,74 : 000, 667
JUN
29: 271.28 +0.39 74.2M: 16.09 : 22.31 +0.38 : 118.65 +0.43 7.67M: 1254.5 $74.15 : $94.47 - 0.85 : 121.72 - 0.42/ 99, 100 : 000, 1026

JUL
30: 279.84 - 1.58 00.0M: 15.26 : 21.27 - 0.05 : 115.65 -0..18 0.00M: 1231.5 $70.13 : $94.35 - 0.32 : 119.05 - 0.41/ 06, 104 : 000. 988
31: 281.22 +1.38 57.6M: 12.83 : 21.28 +0.01 : 115.99 +0.34 5.45M: 1233.6 $68.76 : $94.55 +0.20 : 119.70 +0.65/ 04, 108 : 050, 1038

AUG
30: 290.30 -1.18 00.0M: 00.00 : 18.69 - 0.30 : 113.64 -0.56 0.00M: 1000.0 $00.00 : $00.00 +0.00 : 121.29 +0.27/
31: 290.31 +0.01 52.7M: 13.81 : 18.55 - 0.14 : 113.51 -0.13 4.82M: 1206.7 $69.80 : $95.08 +0.00 : 121.00 -0.29/ 00, 096 : 000, 954

SEP
27: 290.69 +0.81 50.7M: 12.41 : 18.43 - 0.08 : 112.05 - 1.00 7.61M: 1187.4 $72.12 : $94.97 +0.73 : 117.58 +0.08/ 04, 77 : 040. 713
28: 290.72 +0.03 57.6M: 12.12 : 18.52 +0.18 : 112.76 +0.71 5.78M: 1196.2 $73.25 : $95.13 +0.16 : 117.27 - 0.31/ 04, 81 : 040, 753

Oct
01: 291.73 +1.01 56.1M: 12.00 : 18.55 +0.03 : 112.57 -0.19 3.88M: 1191.7 $75.30 : $95.32 +0.19 : 116.15 -0.86/ 00, 00 : 000. 000
02: 291.56 - 0.17 43.8M: 12.05 : 19.05 +0.50 : 113.87 +1.30 10.5M: 1207.0 $75.23 : $95.29 -0.03 : 116.86 +0.71/ 00, 11 : 000, 036
03: 291.72 +0.16 56.5M: 11.61 : 18.79 - 0.26 : 113.42 - 0.45 6.63M: 1202.9 $76.41 : $96.08 +0.79 : 114.83 - 2.03/ 03, 14 : 022, 056
04: 289.44 - 2.28 100.M: 14.22 : 18.75 - 0.04 : 113.48 +0.06 6.53M: 1201.6 $74.33 : $95.76 - 0.32 : 114.02 - 0.81/ 03, 17 : 022, 080
05: 287.82 - 1.62 00.0M: 14.82 : 18.65 - 0.10 : 113.80 +0.32 0.00M: 1205.7 $74.34 : $94.75 - 0.01 : 113.04
08: 287.82 Unch. 87.3M: 15.69 : 18.71 +0.06 : 112.54 - 1.26 12.1M: 1188.7 $74.29 : $94.74 - 0.01 : 112.66 - 0.38/ 00, 32 : 000, 221
09: 287.40 - 0.42 67.5M: 15.96 : 18.39 - 0.32 : 112.60 +0.06 7.97M: 1191.5 $74.86 : $95.59 +???? : 113.80 +1.14/ 01, 33 : 021, 242
10: 278.30 - 9.10 184.M: 22.96 : 18.63 +0.24 : 112.88 +0.28 10.2M: 1193.4 $73.17 : $95.41 - 0.18 : 113.49 - 0.31/ 05, 38 : 058, 300
11: 272.17 - 6.13 254.M: 24.98 : 19.87 +1.24 : 115.78 +2.90 26.1M: 1227.6 $70.97 : $95.04 - 0.37 : 114.87 +1.38/ 07, 45 : 043. 343
12: 275.95 +3.78 165.M: 21.31 : 19.75 - 0.12 : 115.23 - 0.55 12.8M: 1222.8 $71.34 : $95.23 +0.19 : 114.47 - 0.40/  02, 42 : 016, 359
15: 274.40 -1.55 91.9M: 21.30 : 20.06 + 0.31 : 116.00 + 0.77 11.6M: 1230.3 $71.78 : $95.09 -0.14 : 114.42 - 0.05/ 00, 53 : 000, 471
16: 280.40 +6.00 101.M: 17.62 : 19.99 - 0.07 : 115.80 - 0.20 9.16M: 1231.0 $71.92 : $95.23 +0.14 : 114.68 +0.26/ 02, 55 : 045, 516
17: 280.45 +0.05 99.3M: 17.70 : 19.91 - 0.08 : 115.79 - 0.01 7.04M: 1227.4 $69.75 : $95.59 +0.36 : 114.00 - 0.68/ 04, 59 : 044, 560
18: 276.40 - 4.05 123.M: 20.06 : 20.00 +0.09 : 115.92 +0.13 7.89M: 1230.1 $68.71 : $95.99 +0.40 : 113.96 - 0.04/ 03, 62 : 040, 600
19: 276.25 - 0.15 121.M: 19.89 : 20.01 +0.01 : 116.01 +0.09 7.11M: 1228.1 $69.28 : $95.64 - 0.35 : 113.71 - 0.25/ 03, 65 : 040, 640
22: 275.01 - 1.24 75.3M: 19.67 : 19.86 - 0.15 : 115.71 - 0.30 4.92M: 1224.6 $69.36 : $96.02 +0.38 : 113.56 -0.15/
23: 273.61 - 1.40 131.M: 20.71 : 20.10 +0.24 : 116.39 +0.68 12.2M: 1236.8 $66.43 : $95.95 - 0.07 : 113.92 +0.36/ 00, 70 : 000, 750
24: 265.30 - 8.31 000.M: 25.23 : 19.87 - 0.23 : 116.26 - 0.13 0.00M: 1231.1 $66.82 : $96.59 +0.64 : 114.78 +0.86/ 05, 75 : 058, 808
25: 270.08 + 4.78 123.M: 24.22 : 19.00 -0.87 : 116.40 - 0.26 8.05M: 1232.4 $67.33 : $96.66 +0.07 : 114.30 - 0.48/ 05, 80 : 058, 866
26: 265.33 - 4.75 184.M: 24.16 : 19.06 +0.06 : 116.77 + 0.36 15.5M: 1235.8 $67.59 : $96.32 -0.34 : 114.99 +0.69/ 06, 86 : 063, 929
29: 263.86 - 1.46 147.M: 24.70 : 19.01 - 0.05 : 116.31  - 0.46 8.50M: 1227.6 $67.04 : $96.64 +0.32 : 114.73 -0.26/ 00, 105: 000, 1090
30: 267.77 +3.91 143.M: 23.32 : 19.14 +0.14 : 115.80  - 0.51 7.15M: 1225.3 $66.18 : $97.00 +0.36 : 114.16 -0.57/ 04, 109: 034, 1134
31: 270.63 +2.86 000.M: 21.23 : 18.93 -0.21 : 115.15 - 0.65 0.00M: 1215.0 $65.31 : $96.85 -0.15 : 113.31 -0.85/ 05, 114: 050, 1184
01: 273.51 +2.88 91.1M: 19.34 : 19.57 +0.64 : 116.63 + 1.48 13.1M: 1238.6 $63.69 : $96.37 -0.48 : 113.41 +0.10/ 04, 118: 000, 1230
02: 271.89 -1.62 110.M: 19.51 : 19.63 +0.06 : 116.65 +0.02 8.41M: 1233.3 $63.14 : $96.50 +0.13 : 112.00 -1.41/ 03, 121: 044, 1274

==========

[drbubb]

Long Term Charts updated from time-to-time, to at least: April 30, 2017

Prices---- > YrE.'16 : YrE.'17 : change
Gold ------ : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% :
GLD ------ : 109.61 : 123.65 : +12.8% :
Ratio ------: r10.51 : r10.59 :
GDX ------ : $20.92 : $23.24 : +11.1% :
GDXJ ---- : $31.55 : $34.13 : +8.18% :
SLV-------- : $15.64 : $15.98 : +2.08% :
SHcomp : $0,000. : $3,307. :

IWM / etf for Russell-2000 - 12/31/16 : $134.85,  12/31/17 : $152.46 :

All-log : 10-yrs : 12mos // SPY ... : To-End-2015 : last-12mos

KEY CHARTS 
===========

SPY / S&P500 etf - (UP) ...SPY: to 12/31/16 : $223.53,  12/31/17 : $266.86

All-log / 3yrs : 4yrs : 5yrs : 10yrs : TREND is still UP, but may be rolling over

SPX ... 10-yr

.
TLT / T-Bonds etf - (DOWN) ... TLT: to 12/31/16 : $119.13,  12/31/17 : $126.86

All / 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yr : Made an important Peak in 2016 (?) identified in prior chart here !

.
UUP / USDollar x2 etf - (Peaking?) ... to 12/31/16 : $26.46,,  12/31/17 : $24.03

All / 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yr : long ter, TREND is still UP,

.
USO / Oil etf - (Battling DOWNtrend) ... to 12/31/16 : $11.72, 12/31/17 : $12.01

All / 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yr : 10yrL : Price is battling that old Downtrend

.
XLE / Oil stocks - (Fighting back UP) ... to 12/31/16 : $75.32,  12/31/17 : $72.26

All-log / 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : TREND is still Up

.
OIH / Oil service - (Fight DOWNtrend) ... $11.72, 2016  ,  12/31/17 : $26.05

All-Log :  3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : Major Bottom in place?

.
GLD / Gold etf - (Reversing Downtrend?) ... 12/31/16 : 109.61,  12/31/17 : $123.65

All : 3yrs : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : Reversing to Up?

.
GDX / Gold stocks - (Breaking Downtrend?) ... 12/31/16 : $20.92,  12/31/17 : $23.24

GDX ... All-Log : 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : Reversed to Up in 2016 maybe?

.HUI Chart - price data goes back further ... 12/31/16 : 182.31, 2016 range: $99.19 to 286.05 : +199.4% - beta 7.64

All-data :

China's Shanghai index last bounced of a support level near 2,600
ShComp 12/31/16 : 3103.6, 2016 range: 2638.3 to 3538.7 : +34.12% - beta 1.305

CN : SHcomp ... All-Log : All-Data

===== other CHARTS =====

10yrs : SLV : GDXJ : / log : AGQ : PSLV : UGL : PHM +, GDXJ -, RGLD -, HK:HSI +, HK:12 -new,

[drbubb]

Gold's 4-6 months Cycle:

For months, I have been saying: "Low due near year-end maybe?"

"Next Cycle Low (in GDX) could be Dec. 2017" - it was! ... prior : update :

Old chart - to Feb.2018

GLD, updated: 1-yr: 2-yr : 3-yr : update : prior / UK:GBS: $115.50/ HK-2840 : HK-3081:

HISTORY: The longer history of the cycles looked like this: 2013-15 :

: Low, Dec.15th,2016: 1129.8 / $103.04 = 10.96 / intraday: 1123/$103= 10.90

Look what happened after that Dec.2015 Low - a Nice Rally ! .....And then once again after a Dec. 2016 Low:

TMF (2x Bull etf of Long TBonds, like TLT)

These prices tend to move together : TMF, GDX, UGLD, SLV : Bonds, Gold stocks, Gold, and Silver.  And they have been moving in a shared 4-6 months cycle

TMF-etc... 2-yrs : 5-yrs : 6-mos : update / 10-d :

TMF-etc.10d ... update: Chart below is updated to 9/07/2018

[drbubb]

Are we seeing / have we already seen.. Gold's cyclical Low? (this month? this week?)

GDXJ etc ... update :

Last Month, we were at a "pinch point", as I identified here -see below

======

Junior Gold Miners are coming into a major "Pinch point" - Watch for breakout over $34 (this week?)

GDXJ / Jr. Gold Miners ... 10-yr : 5-yr : 3-yrW :  3-yrD : 12-mos / 10d - Last: $33.55 +0.07 : pe: n/a , yield: 0.03% (12mos: $29.69 - 37.75)

Update - GDXJ : 5yr chart : Last : $31.54 - 8/1/18 still looks like a pinchpoint forming to me !

[drbubb]

BRADLEY Model : "TURN dates"

SPY... 2015-2018: 12-31-16: $223.53 / 12-29-17: $266.86 : +19.4%

2016 : +Jan. 5, -May 10, +June 1, -July 5, +??, -Sep. 28, +Nov. 29

2017 : +Dec. 29, -Apr.17, +Apr.29, -Jun.21, +Aug.19, -Sep.7, +Dec.3, /

2018  : -Jan.4, +Jan.17

Model for 2017-8?: 2017 : 2016 : 2015 :

===

Historical TURN: Bonds peaked first in 2015, then the Dollar, then stocks...

TLT... 2015-2018 : 12-31-16: $119.13 / 12-31-17: $126.86 : +6.49%

USD trade-weighted dollar:

DXY ... 2015-2018 : DXY-all-data : 12-31-16: $102.36 / '17: $92.28 : -9.72%

sym: ye.2016 : ye.2017 : %.chg : 2017-H :
SPY : $223.53 : $266.86 : +19.4% : 268.60 :
TLT : $119.13 : $126.86 : +6.49% : 129.57 :
DXY : $102.21 : $92.282 : -9.72% : 103.82 :
Djia  : $19,763 : $24,719 : +25.1% : 24,876 :
GLD-: $109.61 : $123.65 : +12.8% : 128.32 :
EUR-: $1.0520 : $1.2001 : +14.1% : 1.2093 :
Dj/E : E18,786 : E20,597 : +9.64% :
PHP-: P49.606 : P50.009 : +0.00% : 52.006 :
====

OTHER Indices : USO : GLD : GDX : PHM : IYR : UGLD-vsGDX : : IMGHST.co

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MARKET CYCLES - Gold vs Property Charts

Gold and Property appear to be counter-cyclical - Time to switch into Gold?

Pulte (PHM) vs. Gold (GLD) ... update / 3-yrs :

BLUE Box: Sell PHM, Buy Gold / Red Box: Buy PHM, Sell Gold

3-years Chart : Key Level for PHM ($24.50) - Old chart : Last, PHM: $24.50, GLD: $112.57 / ratio: 21.8%

RATIO : PHM-to-GLD

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Mike Pento Warns Global Central Banks Are Entering The Danger Zone

"The truth is the global economy has become one giant central bank shell game; consisting of perpetually rising asset prices that have been supported by consistently falling interest rates...Now that QE is ending and interest rates are rising, the whole artificial construct has started to implode."

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WEEKLY

 ==== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg :   03/29  : 06/29 :   07/27 :  08/31 :  09/07 :  09/14 :  09/21 : 09/28 :
Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1327.3 : 1254.5 : 1223.0 : 1206.7 : 1200.4 : 1201.1 : 1201.3 : 1196.2 :
GLD- : 109.61 : 123.65 : +12.8% : 125.79 : 118.65 : 115.83 : 113.68 : 113.23 : 113.02 : 113.49 : 112.76 :
SPY- : 223.53 : 266.86 : +19.4% : 263.15 : 271.28 : 281.43 : 290.31 : 288.16 : 290.88 : 291.99 : 290.72 :
SPX- : 2238.8 : 2673.6 : +19.4% : 2691.3 : 2718.4 : 2818.8 : 2901.5 : 2871.6 : 2904.9 : 2929.7 : 2914.0 :
Sp/Au 194.4%: 204.2%: ====== : 219.0%: 216.7%: 230.4% : 240.4%: 239.2% : 241.9%: 243.9%: 243.6% :
XLE : $75.32 : $72.24 : -4.09% : $67.41: $75.94 : $76.63 : $74.44: $72.80 : $74.28 : $75.10: $75.74 :
WTIc: $53.72 : $60.42 : +12.4% : $64.94 : $74.15 : $68.69 : $69.80 : $67.75 : $68.99 : $70.78 : $73.25 :
Au/Wt:  r-21.4 :  r-21.7 : ====== : r-20.44 : r16.92 : r-17.80 : r-17.29 : r-17.72 : r-17.41 : r-16.97 : r-16.33 :
Ngas: $3.350 : $2.950 : - 11.9% : $2.730 : $2.920 : $2.780 : $2.920 : $2.780 : $2.770 : $2.970 : $3.010 :
Cop'r: $2.510 : $3.305 : +31.7% : $3.030 : $2.970 : $2.800 : $2.670 : $2.620 : $2.650 : $2.860 : $2.810 :
Soyb : 1000.0 : 950.00 : ---------------------------------------------------->: 843.50 : 844.00 : 830.50 : 847.25 : 845.50 :
Weat : 408.00 : 426.25 : +4.47% : 451.00 : 501.25 : 530.50 : 545.50 : 511.25 : 511.50 : 521.75 : 509.00 :
Corn : 352.00 : 350.75 :- 0.36% : 387.75 : 371.25 : 376.25 : 365.00 : 367.00 : 351.75 : 357.25 : 356.25 :
CRB- : 192.51 : 193.86 : +0.07% : 195.36 : 200.39 : 194.16 : 192.96 : 190.36 : 190.48 : 193.98 : 195.16 :
DBA : $19.97 : $18.76 : -6.06%: $18.18: $18.03: $17.47 : $17.06: $17.10 : $17.05 : $17.08 : $16.91 :
D/crb: 10.37% :  9.67% : ====== :  9.31% :   8.99% :  9.00% :  8.84% :   8.98% :   8.95% :   8.81% :  8.66% :
Xle/D: r-3.770 : r-3.850: +2.14%: r-3.707 : r-4.212 : r-4.386 : r-4.363 : r-4.257 : r-4.357 : r-4.400 : r-4.479 :
DXY- : 102.38 : $92.30 : - 9.85% : $89.81 : $94.47 : $94.67 : $95.08 : $95.33 : $94.95 : $94.22 : $95.13 :
TLT- : 119.13 : 126.86 : + 6.49% : 121.90 : 121.72 : 119.46 : 121.00 : 119.13 : 118.55 : 117.10 : 117.27 :
=====
Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1327.3 : 1254.5 : 1223.0 : 1206.7 : 1200.4 : 1201.1 : 1201.3 : 1196.2 :
Au/hd: r1.401 : r1.58E : ====== : r-1.569 : r-1.532 : r1.528 : r-1.598 : r-1.610 : r-1.618 : r-1.619 : r-1.612 :
Hold : 822.17 : 830.00 : +01.0% : 846.12 : 819.04 : 800.20 : 755.16 : 745.44 : 742.53 : 742.23 : 742.23 :
WPM: $19.32 : $22.27 : +15.3% : $20.37 : $22.06 :$20.94 : $17.80 : $15.93 : $15.95 : $16.92 : $17.50 :
GDX- : $20.92 : $23.24 : +11.1% : $21.98 : $22.31 :$21.32 : $18.55 : $17.88 : $17.98 : $18.78 : $18.52 :
Gdxj : $31.55 : $34.13 : +8.18% : $32.15 : $32.70 : $31.92 : $27.64 : $26.85 : $26.81 : $28.08 : $27.36 :
SIL - : $32.11 : $32.64 : +1.65% : $30.72 :  $28.88 : $27.53 : $24.67 : $23.57 : $23.60 : $24.69 : $24.23 :
/SLV: R2.053 : R2.042 : - 0.54% : R1.994 : R1.910 : R1.889 : r1.807 : r1.770 : R1.783 : R1.837 : R1.765 :
SLV- : $15.64 : $15.98 : +2.08% : $15.41 : $15.15 : $14.57 : $13.65 : $13.32 : $13.23 : $13.44 : $13.73 :
Silvr : 16.580 : 17.150 : +3.44% : 16.268 :  16.200 : 15.490 : 14.440 : 14.070 : 14.140 : 14.360 : 14.710 :
PHM: $18.38 : $33.34 : +81.4% : $29.49 : $28.75 : $28.13 : $27.95 : $26.90 : $26.93 : $26.26 : $24.77 :
EEM- : $35.01 : $47.30 : +35.1% : $48.28 : $43.33 : $44.69 : $43.17 : $41.55 : $41.96 : $43.23 : $42.92 :
ShCm : 3103.7 : 3307.2 : +6.56% : 3168.9: 2847.4 : 2873.6 : 2725.2 : 2702.3 : 2681.6 : 2797.5 : 2821.3 :
PhpSi: 6840.6 : 8558.4 : +25.1% : 7979.8: 7193.7 : 7701.4 : 7855.7 : 7598.6 : 7413.2 : 7383.0 : 7276.8 :
XLF-  : $23.25 : $27.19 : +16.9% : $27.57: $26.59 : $28.13 : $28.33 : $28.33 : $28.23 : $28.74 : $27.58 :
IWM- : 134.85 : 152.43 : +13.0% : 151.83 : 163.77 : 165.26 : 173.02 : 170.54 : 171.38 : 170.40 : 168.55 :
F/iwm 0.1724 : 0.1784 : =====  : 0.1816 : 0.1624 : 0.1702 : 0.1637 : 0.1661 : 0.1647 : 0.1687 : 0.1636 :
BTC-- : $948.5 : 13,100 : x13.8X : $7,401 :  $5,883  : $8,143 : $6,971 : $6,409 : $6,471 : $6,689 : $6,652 :
==== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg :  03/29  :  06/29 :   07/27 :  08/31 :   09/07 :  09/14 :  09/21 : 09/28 :

Copper: w/XLE :

[drbubb]

Bonds have fallen to a Key Support Level near TLT-$116

TLT / xx ... update : Last: $116.15 -- / TLT-vs PHM :

TLT-vs PHM :

==

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Potentially "worthless" companies being floated

"Worse Than The Dot Com Bubble": Money-Losing Companies Are Going Public At A Record Rate

A record number, or 83% of US listed IPOs over the first three quarters of 2018, were companies that lost money in the 12 month prior to going public, higher than the dot com bubble peak.

[drbubb]

Notice the Difference?

IWM / Russell-2000 vs SPY ... 3mos : 10d :

: 10d :

Stocks Swoon As Trump Trade Deal Euphoria Fades, Small Caps Slammed

Futures markets show the overnight exuberance at the trade deal.. and how it faded once Europe closed...

Nasdaq drifted into the red by the closed but the Russell 2000 Index of small-cap stocks is the worst-performing major index today (worst day in over 2 months), and that comes hot on the heels of the index's worst monthly retreat since February.

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Will U follow the lead of Oil (USO) ?

U - etc ... update :

Uranium market brightens as output cutbacks tighten supplies MarketWatch

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U.S. Households Loaded Up On Stocks

By: alexmark

Read more: www.whatreallyhappened.com http://www.whatreallyhappened.com/#ixzz5Sv3DnJhr

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US Dollar still in downtrend

DXY ... update :

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US-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement Targets China’s Bad Practices

By Frank Fang, Epoch Times

October 3, 2018 Updated: October 4, 2018    

The new trade deal between Canada, Mexico, and the United States has put China on notice about some of its most egregious business practices, experts say.

Named the U.S.–Mexico–Canada Agreement, or USMCA, the pact will replace the 24-year-old North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). While the new agreement still needs approval from Congress before it comes into effect, President Donald Trump has high hopes that it will allow North America to be transformed into a “manufacturing powerhouse.”

“I believe this agreement will boost productivity and economy in both Canada and Mexico,” said Frank Xie, a business professor at the University of South Carolina–Aiken, in an interview with the Chinese-language Epoch Times.

Under NAFTA, Xie explained, many Mexican products sold in the U.S. market were the result of packaging cheap components imported from elsewhere, such as China. Now, under the deal, Mexico won’t be able to rely on cheap components anymore, and subsequently, that will drive an upgrade of the Mexican industry.

“There were holes in NAFTA that were damaging to the U.S. industry,” said Xie, noting that cheap parts from China allowed Mexican products to be sold for reduced prices, thus undermining competition with U.S. goods. “Now, the new agreement is to close those holes. Much like the current trade war with China, Trump doesn’t want China to exploit those holes anymore,” he said.

While under NAFTA,  Chinese companies were able to evade tariffs by selling components to Canada or Mexico, then shipping those products tariff-free into the U.S. market, trade experts have also pointed out that the new agreement with Mexico and Canada includes a provision that targets China’s bad practices.

The provision specifies that if one of the current NAFTA partners enters a free-trade deal with a “non-market” country such as China, the other two can quit in six months and form their own bilateral trade pact with each other, according to Reuters.

Derek Scissors, a China scholar at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, said the provision gave the Trump administration an effective veto over any China trade deal by Canada or Mexico.

[drbubb]

DEAR DIARY

My stock account performance is literally ON FIRE these past few weeks - despite weak indices

THREE stocks I own ... update :

This does not even include the very best one ... WM : in terms of # of shares, it is my largest holding.

Why so strong? 

Both WM and GCM have reported some terrific drill results.  CCO got a favorable tax ruling

I missed a chance to buy some (more) SPY puts yesterday when the markets gapped down on the opening ...

IWM, SPY, SOXX ... 3mos : 10d :

Gaps usually get filled, so I may get another chance to buy them.

I have been gearing up a bit also, adding to my Bitcoin position ... BTC update

==

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FRIDAY: a stock bounce on likely Kavanaugh confirmation?

FBI report exposes the Bias in NY Times & other Liestream Media reports

How Jeff Flake's One-Week Delay Helped Clear Brett Kavanaugh's Name

Let us count the ways.

When Arizona Republican senator Jeff Flake insisted on an additional one-week delay of the Kavanaugh confirmation vote in order to allow the FBI to conduct a supplemental background-check investigation into allegations of sexual assault, many Republicans feared that it would accomplish nothing other than provide time for more people to smear Kavanaugh with new false allegations.

In fact, the delay has actually helped clear Kavanaugh’s name.

FBI investigation turns up no groundbreaking information?

Shortly after 11 a.m. on Thursday, October 4, Democratic senators Dianne Feinstein and Chuck Schumer spoke to the press following a confidential briefing about the FBI's supplemental background check. While the senators were limited about what they could say, Feinstein focused first on the fact that neither Kavanaugh nor Ford, who testified publicly for hours last week, were interviewed by the FBI

If the FBI investigation had turned up some groundbreaking new information, that is not the kind of thing you’d expect the Democratic senators to focus on.

The FBI interviewed all the alleged party attendees—Ford’s lifelong female friend Leland Ingham Keyser, Kavanaugh friend P.J. Smyth, and alleged accomplice Mark Judge. Keyser had previously said she recalls no party at which Kavanaugh was present and does not know Kavanaugh. Schumer and Feinstein gave no indication Keyser has changed her story.

The FBI also interviewed Chris Garrett, a person Ford went out with around the time of the alleged assault in 1982 and Ford’s only known social connection to Kavanaugh and Judge. The FBI also interviewed Tim Gaudette, who hosted a July 1, 1982, party that has been the focus of much speculation. Schumer and Feinstein gave no indication those interviews turned up groundbreaking information.

Senate Judiciary Committee chairman Chuck Grassley said in a statement: “This investigation found no hint of misconduct and the same is true of the six prior FBI background investigations conducted during Judge Kavanaugh’s 25 years of public service.”

[drbubb]

EUR, Oil shares & Precious metals etfs : 12mo : ... EUR, PM's still in downtrend, while Oil rises

What is Cheap - in the Commodity sector?

Ratio: Silver to WTI Crude Oil

Ratio: SIL (silver shs) to XLE (oil shs)

==

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GLD / Gold etf ... update :

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SIL / Silver shares ... update :

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Bill O'Reilly: Kavanaugh might get confirmed 60/40 because of "new" information

"Leland was pressured to change her testimony by Ford's team: ''You gotta support Christine!' "

"Ford and her lawyers might get hauled in front of the senate to explain why they lied"

O'Reilly Analyzes the Kavanaugh Vote: "Murkowski Is Finished"

Even juicier: is RDS's blend of fact. speculation & conspiracy

Schumer got his hair on fire over the Kavanaugh nomination

"Katz (Ford's lawyer) was Hillary's lover... and she is on Schumer's team" (not Feinstein's)

Deep State Panic, Arrests & Military Tribunals Around The Corner:Robert David Steele

==

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The CURRENCY Parade

Since 2010 : w/MA's : since 2014 : updated to July 2018

DBA and Silver went down with weak EUR & other Currencies ... update :

[drbubb]

 WEEKLY DATA

 ==== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg :   03/29  : 06/29 :   07/27 :  08/31 :  09/28 : 10/05 :
Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1327.3 : 1254.5 : 1223.0 : 1206.7 : 1196.2 : 1205.6 :
GLD- : 109.61 : 123.65 : +12.8% : 125.79 : 118.65 : 115.83 : 113.68 : 112.76 : 113.90 :
SPY- : 223.53 : 266.86 : +19.4% : 263.15 : 271.28 : 281.43 : 290.31 : 290.72 : 287.82 :
SPX- : 2238.8 : 2673.6 : +19.4% : 2691.3 : 2718.4 : 2818.8 : 2901.5 : 2914.0 : 2885.6 :
Sp/Au 194.4%: 204.2%: ====== : 219.0%: 216.7%: 230.4% : 240.4%: 243.6%: 239.3%:
XLE : $75.32 : $72.24 : -4.09% : $67.41: $75.94 : $76.63 : $74.44: $75.74 : $77.16 :
WTIc: $53.72 : $60.42 : +12.4% : $64.94 : $74.15 : $68.69 : $69.80 : $73.25 : $74.34 :
Au/Wt:  r-21.4 :  r-21.7 : ====== : r-20.44 : r16.92 : r-17.80 : r-17.29 : r-16.33 : r-16.22 :
Ngas: $3.350 : $2.950 : - 11.9% : $2.730 : $2.920 : $2.780 : $2.920 : $3.010 : $3.140 :
Cop'r: $2.510 : $3.305 : +31.7% : $3.030 : $2.970 : $2.800 : $2.670 : $2.810 : $2.760 :
Soyb : 1000.0 : 950.00 : ---------------------------------------------------->: 843.50 : 845.50 : 869.00 :
Weat : 408.00 : 426.25 : +4.47% : 451.00 : 501.25 : 530.50 : 545.50 : 509.00 : 521.00 :
Corn : 352.00 : 350.75 : - 0.36% : 387.75 : 371.25 : 376.25 : 365.00 : 356.25 : 368.25 :
CRB- : 192.51 : 193.86 : +0.07% : 195.36 : 200.39 : 194.16 : 192.96 : 195.16 : 199.04 :
DBA : $19.97 : $18.76 : -6.06%: $18.18: $18.03: $17.47 : $17.06: $16.91 : $17.35 :
D/crb: 10.37% :  9.67% : ====== :  9.31% :   8.99% :  9.00% :  8.84% :   8.66% :  8.71% :
Xle/D: r-3.770 : r-3.850: +2.14%: R3.707 : R4.212 : R4.386 : R4.363 : R4.479 : R4.450 :
DXY- : 102.38 : $92.30 : - 9.85% : $89.81 : $94.47 : $94.67 : $95.08 : $95.13 : $95.60 :
TLT- : 119.13 : 126.86 : + 6.49% : 121.90 : 121.72 : 119.46 : 121.00 : 117.27 : 113.04 :
=====
Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1327.3 : 1254.5 : 1223.0 : 1206.7 : 1196.2 : 1205.6 :
Au/hd: r1.401 : r1.58E : ====== : r-1.569 : r-1.532 : r1.528 : r-1.598 : r-1.612 : r-1.651 :
Hold : 822.17 : 830.00 : +01.0% : 846.12 : 819.04 : 800.20 : 755.16 : 742.23 : 730.17 :
WPM: $19.32 : $22.27 : +15.3% : $20.37 : $22.06 :$20.94 : $17.80 : $17.50 : $17.05 :
GDX- : $20.92 : $23.24 : +11.1% : $21.98 : $22.31 :$21.32 : $18.55 : $18.52 : $18.65 :
Gdxj : $31.55 : $34.13 : +8.18% : $32.15 : $32.70 : $31.92 : $27.64 : $27.36 : $27.62 :
SIL - : $32.11 : $32.64 : +1.65% : $30.72 :  $28.88 : $27.53 : $24.67 : $24.23 : $23.93 :
/SLV: R2.053 : R2.042 : - 0.54% : R1.994 : R1.910 : R1.889 : R1.807 : R1.765 : R1.740 :
SLV- : $15.64 : $15.98 : +2.08% : $15.41 : $15.15 : $14.57 : $13.65 : $13.73 : $13.75 :
Silvr : 16.580 : 17.150 : +3.44% : 16.268 :  16.200 : 15.490 : 14.440 : 14.710 : 14.650 :
PHM: $18.38 : $33.34 : +81.4% : $29.49 : $28.75 : $28.13 : $27.95 : $24.77 : $23.86 :
EEM- : $35.01 : $47.30 : +35.1% : $48.28 : $43.33 : $44.69 : $43.17 : $42.92 : $40.84 :
ShCm: 3103.7 : 3307.2 : +6.56%: 3168.9: 2847.4 : 2873.6 : 2725.2 : 2821.3 : 2821.4 :
PhpSi: 6840.6 : 8558.4 : +25.1% : 7979.8: 7193.7 : 7701.4 : 7855.7 : 7276.8 : 7078.2 :
XLF-  : $23.25 : $27.19 : +16.9% : $27.57: $26.59 : $28.13 : $28.33 : $27.58 : $28.00 :
IWM- : 134.85 : 152.43 : +13.0% : 151.83 : 163.77 : 165.26 : 173.02 : 168.55 : 162.16 :
F/iwm 0.1724 : 0.1784 : =====  : 0.1816 : 0.1624 : 0.1702 : 0.1637 : 0.1636 : 0.1727 :
BTC-- : $948.5 : 13,100 : x13.8X : $7,401 :  $5,883  : $8,143 : $6,971 : $6,652 : $6,547 :
==== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg :  03/29  :  06/29 :   07/27 :  08/31 :   09/28 :  10/05 :

Ratio : XLE to-DBA - Oil shares at an EXTREME vs. Agri-Index DBA?

Ratio : WTI Crude Oil to Silver

 

[drbubb]