DrBubb's Diary - Nov. 2018 Trading - v.118

[drbubb]

Dr.B's Trading Diary : 2018. Diary's 117th Month,

8 years+ since 3/09 Low : Fresh New Peak in Dec.: Dow closed 2017 @ 24,719

Top of Page Charts (Odd) : Channel-GE : MP : PP : Charts : Acore : Fringe : Ag B E G H :

================

DrBubb's Diary - Nov. 2018 Trading - v.118

The Fed's Racetrack: Gold (GLD) vs Stocks (SPY) : update :vs.CRB : GLD-hr : SPY-hr : GLD/SPYratio

The Fed's money-printing has maintained confidence in markets - but the money has gone not only into stocks, but also into other areas. For many months, money flowed into commodities like Gold, pushing prices higher even faster than stocks, as the chart above shows. But since Gold's peak in Aug.2011, stocks have outperformed gold. Since then, these two assets have tended to trade counter-cyclically to each other.

Gold in EURO - very worthwhile to track

Short Term:

Medium Term - 3 Years: Gold-inEUR or GLD-toEUR

 

US Stocks: "SPX-in-Euros" .. SPX-to-EUR or SPY-to-FXE  .. update

Ratio - SPX/Euro has often moved in a nice clear channels

DrBubb's "Early Warning System"

Leading Ratio ... LQD:TLT-Weekly-3yrs : TLT-vsLQD : Copper : HG price : CU price : SPY-10/11 : SMH-6mos

I reckon that the LQD-to-TLT ratio should move in harmony with stocks, or maybe LEAD stock moves. If they are moving in different directions, then one should be cautious. (However, the value of this indicator has become suspect in recent years, after giving some false warnings.)
=====
Bullish Percentages :
BPNYA- : http://stockcharts.c...!Lh14,3]&pref=G
BPGDM : http://stockcharts.c...!Lh14,3]&pref=G
NASIT - : NAMOT : Summation Indices

INFLATION Watch / "Drivers" (SPY, GLD, DXY) .. 10d : 6mo-D : 2yr-D : 5yr-D // CU-etc : w/XLE :

Copper to lead Commodity bounce-back?

GBS-GoldBullion vs: DBA, XLE, EUR ... update :

RECORD : CU may lead GLD and SPY
======

US Fed'l Debt // Formula: (Fed'l Debt - $4.0 Trillion ) x 119 +$100

Date-: DebtTr > G.Eqv /10.40 : - GLD - : - SPY - : -DIFF- : - ratio - : -- CU -- : cu/gld : - FXI - : cu-fxi : - DBA- : - BTC - :

end07: $09.23 > 0,722 : 072.2 : $082.46 : $146.21 : -63.75: 56.398% : $20.0e: XX.X% :: $ 17.05: ==== : $ 32.99 :

end08: $10.70 > 0,897 : 089.7 : $086.52 : $090.24 : -$3.72: 95.878% : $20.0e: XX.X% :: $ 29.09: ==== : $ 26.18 :

end09: $12.31 > 1,089 : 108.9 : $107.31 : $111.44 : -$4.13: 96.294% : $30.0e: XX.X% :: $ 42.26: ==== : $ 26.44 :

end10: $14.03 > 1,294: 129.4 : $138.74 : $125.75 : $12.99: 110.34% : $43.71: 31.51%: $ 43.09: $0.62: $ 32.35 : $ 00.29 :

end11: $15.22 > 1,435: 138.0 : $151.99 : $125.50 : $26.49: 121.11% : $29.29: 19.27%: $ 34.87: - 5.58: $ 28.88 : $ 04.60 :

end12: $16.43 > 1,570: 151.0 : $162.02 : $142.41 : $19.61: 113.77% : $30.34: 18.73%: $ 40.45:-10.11: $ 27.95 : $ 13.48 :

end13: $17.35 > 1,689: 162.4 : $116.12 : $184.69 : -68.57 : 062.87% : $22.27: 19.18%: $ 38.37:-16.10: $ 24.25 :$815.00 :

end14: $18.14 > 1,783 : 171.4 : $113.58 : $205.54 : -98.04 : 55.26% :: $18.09: 15.93%: $ 41.62:-23.53: $ 24.89 :$316.20 :

end15: $18.83 > 1,865 : 179.3 : $101.46 : $203.87 :-102.41: 49.77% :: 2.135 : 2.140%: $ 35.29:-00.00: $ 20.61: $433.50 :

end16

(2016)
01/29: $19.01 > 1,886 : 180.0 : $108.05 : $193.65 : - $85.60: 55.80% :: 2.060 : 1.907% $ 31.20:-00.00: $ 19.99: $375.00 :
02/29: $19.13 > 1,900 : 181.3 : $118.64 : $193.56 : - $74.98: 61.29% :: 2. ??? : 1.000% $ 30.00: -00.00: $ 20.00: $434.00 :
03/31: $19.26 > 1,916 : 182.8 : $117.64 : $205.52 : - $87.88: 57.24% :: 2. ??? : 1.000% $ 33.77: -13.17: $ 20.60: $415.00 :
04/30: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $123.65 : $206.33 : - $82.68: 59.93% :: 2. ??? : 1.000% $ 33.53: -12.45: $ 21.08: $4 ??.00 :
05/31: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $116.06 : $209.84 : - $93.78: 55.31% :: 2.080 : 1.792% $ 33.65: -12.34: $ 21.31: $526.10 :

06/30: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $126.47 : $209.48 : - $83.01: 60.37% :: 2.0 ?? : 0.000% $ 00.00: -00.00: $ 00.00: $0
07/31: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $128.98 : $217.12 : - $88.14: 59.40% :: 2.0 ?? : 0.000% $ 00.00: -00.00: $ 00.00: $0
08/31: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $124.78 : $217.38 : - $92.60: 57.40% :: 2.080 : 1.667% $ 37.08: -16.85: $ 20.23: $570.00 :

=====
ye'16 : $20.0E > 1,8 xx : 18x.x :

Date-: DebtTr > G.Eqv /10.40 : - GLD - : - SPY - : -DIFF- : - ratio - : -- CU -- : cu/gld : - FXI - : cu-fxi : - DBA- : - BTC - :

======

"GOLD Formula" is : (Fed'l Debt - $4.0 Trillion ) x 119 +$100 : US Govt Debt :: http://www.usgovernmentdebt.us/

The FED must be pleased with the way that money has flowed into stocks, away from Gold. / notes : a b c

[drbubb]

DAILY MONITOR

Month: -SPY- : Chg : volume/ VIX : GDX: +-chg: -GLD- : Chg: volume: x10.?? WTI.Cr: -DXY-- -Chg- : --TLT-: Chg : Posts/Views cum'l
2015
12-31: 203.87 - 2.06: 91.2M: 18.21 : 13.72 +0.06: 101.46 +0.04 : 3.81M: 1060.5 $37.07* 98.693 +0.413: 120.58 +0.54 : 02, 086/ 051, 1,913

 2016
03-31: 205.52 - 0.50: 79.4M: 13.95 : 19.97 - 0.26: 117.64 +0.54: 9.17M: 1233.9 $38.11* $94.63 - 0.10 : 130.61 +0.92 : 03, 096/ 1618, 4,518
06-30: 209.48 + 2.82: 143.M: 15.63 : 27.71 +0.56: 126.47 +0.63: 15.1M: 1324.7 $48.40* $95.81 +0.05 : 138.90 +0.51 : 0?, 055/ 060, 1,941
09-30: 216.30 +1.62: 98.7M: 13.29 : 26.43 - 0.26:  125.64 - 0.43: 10.8M: 1317.1 $48.24* $95.42 - 0.10 : 137.51 - 1.24/ 04, 096 : 1191, 6,335
12-30: 223.53 - 0.82: 86.9M: 14.04 : 20.92 - 0.83: 109.61  - 0.68: 8.79M: 1151.7 $53.72* 102.38 - 0.27 : 119.13 + 0.18/ 03, 096: 9396, 13876  

2017
01-31: 227.53 - 0.02 00.0M: 12.09 : 23.93 +0.78: 115.55 +1.68: 0.00M: 1211.8 $52.80* $99.74 -0.62 : 119.84 +0.57/ 08 120 : 4554, 10255
02-28: 236.47 - 0.64 69.6M: 12.92 : 22.85 +0.01: 119.23 +0.11 8.29M: 1253.9 $54.01* 101.48 +0.32 : 121.74 +0.45/ 09, 085 : 4109, 7,634
03-31: 235.74 - 0.55 56.2M: 12.37 : 22.81 +0.26: 118.72 +0.25 8.14M: 1251.2 $50.60* 100.22 -0.07 : 120.71 +0.35/ 10, 120: 17.4K, 23202
04-28: 238.08 - 0.52 50.4M: 10.82 : 22.23 +0.42: 120.77 +0.38 8.86M: 1268.3 $49.33* $99.04 - 0.15 : 122.35 +0.27/ 12, 098: 5178, 11915
05-31: 241.44 - 0.06 00.0M: 10.41 : 22.69 +0.10: 120.62 +0.48 0.00M: 1264.8: $48.32* $97.21 +0.00 : 124.14 +0.05/ 04, 106 : 976, 6,918
06-30: 241.80 +0.45 49.4M: 11.18 : 22.08 + 0.13: 118.02 -0.30 6.79M: 1242.3: $46.04* $95.64 +0.09 : 125.12 - 0.29/ 04, 095 : 723, 5,020
07-31: 246.77 -0.14 42.9M: 10.25 : 22.86 - 0.05 : 120.75 +0.06 3.82M: 1273.8 $50.17: $92.90 - 0.43 : 124.04 +0.15/ 00, 094 : 800, 5,056
08-31: 247.49 +1.48 75.8M: 10.59 : 24.72 +0.56 : 125.82 +1.46 11.3M: 1322.2 $47.23: $92.62 +0.06 : 127.99 +0.38/ 03, 091 : 894, 5,034
=====
09-29: 251.23 +0.88 60.7M: %9.51 : 22.96 -0.20 : 121.58 - 0.63 8.77M: 1284.8 $51.67: $93.07 - 0.06 : 124.76 +0.28/ 08, 067 : 1346, 4,235
10-31: 257.15 +0.40 42.7M: 10.18 : 22.48 - 0.28 : 120.67 - 0.46 3.76M: 1277.5 $54.20: $94.54 +0.01 : 124.46 +0.04/ 03, 101 : 1158, 2,371
11-30: 265.01 +2.30 104.M: 11.28 : 22.47 - 0.03 : 121.10 - 0.94 7.84M: 1276.7 $57.40: $92.97  - 0.09 : 125.12 - 0.42/ 03, 079 : 545, 2,180 :1436
12-29: 266.86 - 1.01 60.8M: 11.04 : 23.24 +0.04 : 123.65 +0.80 7.55M: 1309.3 $60.42 : $92.30 - 0.20 : 126.86 +0.20/ 05, 107 : 000, 1590

====

---: SPY- : Chg : volume/ VIX : GDX: +-chg: -GLD- : Chg: volume: x10.?? WTI.Cr: -DXY- -Chg.- : --TLT- : Chg : Posts/Views cum'l:

JAN

30: 281.76 - 2.92 116.M: 14.79 : 23.45 - 0.23 : 126.80 - 0.55 9.37M: 1340.0 $64.50 : $89.05 - 0.37 : 122.01 - 0.72/ 04, 107 : 072, 1335
31: 281.90 +0.14 97.6M: 13.54 : 23.75 +0.30 : 127.65 +0.85 13.0M: 1343.1 $64.73 : $89.11 +0.06 : 122.73 +0.72/

FEB
28: 271.65 - 2.78 101.M: 19.85 : 21.35 - 0.14 : 125.00 - 0.13 4.52M: 1317.9 $61.64 : $90.73 +0.07 : 118.75 +0.75/ 00, 076 : 000, 1093

MAR
29: 263.15 +3.32 104.M: 19.97 : 21.98 - 0.01 : 125.79 +0.06 6.84M: 1327.3 $64.94 : $90.01 -0.13 : 121.90 +0.59/ 00, 67: 000, 0880

APR
30: 264.51 - 2.05: 65.0M: 15.93 : 22.28 - 0.45 : 124.59 - 0.91 9.59M: 1319.2 $68.57 : $91.86 +0.27 : 119.10 +0.21/ 074, 0,630
MAY
30: 272.61 +3.59 63.0M: 14.94 : 22.44 +0.29 : 123.37 + 0.18 4.49M: 1306.5 $68.21 : $94.07 -0.37 : 121.42 - 0.82/
31: 270.94 - 1.67 78.4M: 15.43 : 22.34 -0.10 : 123.10 - 0.27 7.62M: 1304.7 $66.24 : $93.98 -0.09 : 121.22 - 0.20/ 00,74 : 000, 667
JUN
29: 271.28 +0.39 74.2M: 16.09 : 22.31 +0.38 : 118.65 +0.43 7.67M: 1254.5 $74.15 : $94.47 - 0.85 : 121.72 - 0.42/ 99, 100 : 000, 1026

JUL
30: 279.84 - 1.58 00.0M: 15.26 : 21.27 - 0.05 : 115.65 -0..18 0.00M: 1231.5 $70.13 : $94.35 - 0.32 : 119.05 - 0.41/ 06, 104 : 000. 988
31: 281.22 +1.38 57.6M: 12.83 : 21.28 +0.01 : 115.99 +0.34 5.45M: 1233.6 $68.76 : $94.55 +0.20 : 119.70 +0.65/ 04, 108 : 050, 1038

AUG
30: 290.30 -1.18 00.0M: 00.00 : 18.69 - 0.30 : 113.64 -0.56 0.00M: 1000.0 $00.00 : $00.00 +0.00 : 121.29 +0.27/
31: 290.31 +0.01 52.7M: 13.81 : 18.55 - 0.14 : 113.51 -0.13 4.82M: 1206.7 $69.80 : $95.08 +0.00 : 121.00 -0.29/ 00, 096 : 000, 954

SEP
27: 290.69 +0.81 50.7M: 12.41 : 18.43 - 0.08 : 112.05 - 1.00 7.61M: 1187.4 $72.12 : $94.97 +0.73 : 117.58 +0.08/ 04, 77 : 040. 713
28: 290.72 +0.03 57.6M: 12.12 : 18.52 +0.18 : 112.76 +0.71 5.78M: 1196.2 $73.25 : $95.13 +0.16 : 117.27 - 0.31/ 04, 81 : 040, 753

Oct
30: 267.77 +3.91 143.M: 23.32 : 19.14 +0.14 : 115.80  - 0.51 7.15M: 1225.3 $66.18 : $97.00 +0.36 : 114.16 -0.57/ 04, 109: 034, 1134
31: 270.63 +2.86 000.M: 21.23 : 18.93 -0.21 : 115.15 - 0.65 0.00M: 1215.0 $65.31 : $96.85 -0.15 : 113.31 -0.85/ 05, 114: 050, 1184

===
01: 273.51 +2.88 91.1M: 19.34 : 19.57 +0.64 : 116.63 + 1.48 13.1M: 1238.6 $63.69 : $96.37 -0.48 : 113.41 +0.10/ 04, 118: 000, 1230
02: 271.89 -1.62 110.M: 19.51 : 19.63 +0.06 : 116.65 +0.02 8.41M: 1233.3 $63.14 : $96.50 +0.13 : 112.00 -1.41/ 03, 121: 044, 1274
05: 273.39 +1.50 59.1M: 19.96 : 19.56 -0.07 : 116.37 -0.28 5.72M: 1000.0 $00.00 : $96.35 -0.15 : 112.44 +0.44/ 00, 017: 000, 084
6: 275.12 +1.73 00.0M: 00.00 : 19.40 -0.16 : 116.02 -0.35 0.00M: 1226.3 $62.21 : $96.16 -0.19 : 112.37 -0.07/
7: 281.01 +5.89 89.1M: 16.36 : 19.31 -0.09 : 116.01 -0.01 7.70M: 1228.7 $61.67 : $96.18 +0.02 : 112.52 +0.15/ 00, 030: 000, 192
8: 280.50 -0.51 00.0M: 16.72 : 19.38 +0.07 : 115.86 -0.15 0.00M: 1225.1 $60.67 : $96.63 +0.45 : 112.51 -0.01/ 09, 039: 075, 267
9: 277.76 -2.74 85.7M: 17.36 : 19.04 -0.34 : 114.48 -1.38 13.8M: 1208.6 $60.19 : $96.90 +0.27 : 113.35 +0.84/ 09, 048: 075, 342
12:272.57 -5.19 89.7M: 20.45 : 18.61 -0.43 : 113.66 -0.82 7.21M: 1000.0 $00.00 : $97.52 +0.62 : 114.09 +0.74/ 00, 063: 000, 470
13: 272.06 -0.51 00.0M: 20.02 : 18.42 =0.19 : 113.70 +0.04 0.00M: 1201.4 $55.69 : $97.99 +0.47 : 114.02 -0.07/ 07, 070: 070, 540
14: 270.20 -1.86 111.M: 21.25 : 18.83 +0.41 : 114.64 +0.94 13.8M: 1210.1 $56.25 : $96.85 -0.14 : 114.09 +0.07/ 00, 076: 085, 625
15: 273.02 +2.82 122.M: 19.98 : 19.09 +0.26 : 114.77 +0.13 8.82M: 1212.0 $56.70 : $97.04 +0.19 : 114.04 -0.03/ 08, 084: 065, 890
16: 273.73 +0.71 127.M: 18.14 : 19.38 +0.29 : 115.62 +0.85 8.58M: 1224.0 $56.70 : $96.47 -0.57 : 114.70 +0.66/
19: 269.10 -4.63 000.M: 20.10 : 19.39 +0.00 : 115.67 +0.05 0.00M: 1225.3 $57.20 : $96.19 -0.28 : 115.02 +0.32/ XX
20: 264.12 -4.98 127.M: 22.48 : 19.30 -0.09 : 115.67 Unch. 8.29M: 1221.2 $53.43 : $96.83 +0.64 : 115.06 +0.04/ 00,
21: 265.02 +0.90 00.0M: 20.80 : 19.81 +0.51 : 115.86 +0.20 0.00M: 1000.0 $00.00 : $96.39 -0.44 : 115.02 -0.04/
22: Holiday
23: 263.25 -1.77 38.7M: 21.52 : 19.36 -0.45 : 115.77 -0.09 3.68M: 1223.2 $50.42 : $96.94 +0.45 : 115.14 +0.12/ 00, 130: 000, 1130
26: 267.50 +4.25 68.9M: 18.90 : 19.26 -0.10 : 115.64 -0.14 3.90M: 1222.4 $51.63 : $97.04 +0.10 : 114.88 -0.26/ 00, 144: 000, 1294
27: 268.40 +0.90 69.6M: 19.02 : 18.87 -0.39 : 114.95 -0.69 8.76M: 1000.0 $00.00 : $97.37 +0.31 : 115.01 +0.13/ 04, 148: 047, 1341
28: 274.58 +6.18 114.M: 18.49 : 19.34 +0.47 : 115.38 +0.43 13.0M: 1223.6 $50.29 : $96.75 -0.62 : 114.45 -0.56/ 03, 151: 046, 1386
29: 273.98 -0.60 72.3M: 18.79 : 19.17 -0.17 : 115.74 +0.36 6.31M: 1224.1 $51.45 : $96.79 +0.04 : 114.90 +0.45/ 06, 157: 070, 1456
30: 275.65 +1.67 78.5M: 18.07 : 19.09 -0.08 : 115.54 -0.20 7.83M: 1220.2 $50.93 : $97.20 +0.41 : 115.33 +0.43/ 06, 163: 100, 1556
==

[drbubb]

Long Term Charts updated from time-to-time, to at least: April 30, 2017

Prices---- > YrE.'16 : YrE.'17 : change
Gold ------ : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% :
GLD ------ : 109.61 : 123.65 : +12.8% :
Ratio ------: r10.51 : r10.59 :
GDX ------ : $20.92 : $23.24 : +11.1% :
GDXJ ---- : $31.55 : $34.13 : +8.18% :
SLV-------- : $15.64 : $15.98 : +2.08% :
SHcomp : $0,000. : $3,307. :

IWM / etf for Russell-2000 - 12/31/16 : $134.85,  12/31/17 : $152.46 :

All-log : 10-yrs : 12mos // SPY ... : To-End-2015 : last-12mos

KEY CHARTS 
===========

SPY / S&P500 etf - (UP) ...SPY: to 12/31/16 : $223.53,  12/31/17 : $266.86

All-log / 3yrs : 4yrs : 5yrs : 10yrs : TREND is still UP, but may be rolling over

SPX ... 10-yr

.
TLT / T-Bonds etf - (DOWN) ... TLT: to 12/31/16 : $119.13,  12/31/17 : $126.86

All / 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yr : Made an important Peak in 2016 (?) identified in prior chart here !

.
UUP / USDollar x2 etf - (Peaking?) ... to 12/31/16 : $26.46,,  12/31/17 : $24.03

All / 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yr : long ter, TREND is still UP,

.
USO / Oil etf - (Battling DOWNtrend) ... to 12/31/16 : $11.72, 12/31/17 : $12.01

All / 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yr : 10yrL : Price is battling that old Downtrend

.
XLE / Oil stocks - (Fighting back UP) ... to 12/31/16 : $75.32,  12/31/17 : $72.26

All-log / 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : TREND is still Up

.
OIH / Oil service - (Fight DOWNtrend) ... $11.72, 2016  ,  12/31/17 : $26.05

All-Log :  3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : Major Bottom in place?

.
GLD / Gold etf - (Reversing Downtrend?) ... 12/31/16 : 109.61,  12/31/17 : $123.65

All : 3yrs : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : Reversing to Up?

.
GDX / Gold stocks - (Breaking Downtrend?) ... 12/31/16 : $20.92,  12/31/17 : $23.24

GDX ... All-Log : 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : Reversed to Up in 2016 maybe?

.HUI Chart - price data goes back further ... 12/31/16 : 182.31, 2016 range: $99.19 to 286.05 : +199.4% - beta 7.64

All-data :

China's Shanghai index last bounced of a support level near 2,600
ShComp 12/31/16 : 3103.6, 2016 range: 2638.3 to 3538.7 : +34.12% - beta 1.305

CN : SHcomp ... All-Log : All-Data

===== other CHARTS =====

10yrs : SLV : GDXJ : / log : AGQ : PSLV : UGL : PHM +, GDXJ -, RGLD -, HK:HSI +, HK:12 -new,

[drbubb]

Gold's 4-6 months Cycle:

For months, I have been saying: "Low due near year-end maybe?"

"Next Cycle Low (in GDX) could be Dec. 2017" - it was! ... prior : update :

Old chart - to Feb.2018

GLD, updated: 1-yr: 2-yr : 3-yr : update : prior / UK:GBS: $115.50/ HK-2840 : HK-3081:

HISTORY: The longer history of the cycles looked like this: 2013-15 :

: Low, Dec.15th,2016: 1129.8 / $103.04 = 10.96 / intraday: 1123/$103= 10.90

Look what happened after that Dec.2015 Low - a Nice Rally ! .....And then once again after a Dec. 2016 Low:

TMF (2x Bull etf of Long TBonds, like TLT)

These prices tend to move together : TMF, GDX, UGLD, SLV : Bonds, Gold stocks, Gold, and Silver.  And they have been moving in a shared 4-6 months cycle

TMF-etc... 2-yrs : 5-yrs : 6-mos : update / 10-d :

TMF-etc.10d ... update: Chart below is updated to 9/07/2018

[drbubb]

Are we seeing / have we already seen.. Gold's cyclical Low? (this month? this week?)

GDXJ etc ... update :

Last Month, we were at a "pinch point", as I identified here -see below

======

Junior Gold Miners are coming into a major "Pinch point" - Watch for breakout over $34 (this week?)

GDXJ / Jr. Gold Miners ... 10-yr : 5-yr : 3-yrW :  3-yrD : 12-mos / 10d - Last: $33.55 +0.07 : pe: n/a , yield: 0.03% (12mos: $29.69 - 37.75)

Update - GDXJ : 5yr chart : Last : $31.54 - 8/1/18 still looks like a pinchpoint forming to me !

[drbubb]

BRADLEY Model : "TURN dates"

SPY... 2015-2018: 12-31-16: $223.53 / 12-29-17: $266.86 : +19.4%

2016 : +Jan. 5, -May 10, +June 1, -July 5, +??, -Sep. 28, +Nov. 29

2017 : +Dec. 29, -Apr.17, +Apr.29, -Jun.21, +Aug.19, -Sep.7, +Dec.3, /

2018  : -Jan.4, +Jan.17

Model for 2017-8?: 2017 : 2016 : 2015 :

===

Historical TURN: Bonds peaked first in 2015, then the Dollar, then stocks...

TLT... 2015-2018 : 12-31-16: $119.13 / 12-31-17: $126.86 : +6.49%

USD trade-weighted dollar:

DXY ... 2015-2018 : DXY-all-data : 12-31-16: $102.36 / '17: $92.28 : -9.72%

sym: ye.2016 : ye.2017 : %.chg : 2017-H :
SPY : $223.53 : $266.86 : +19.4% : 268.60 :
TLT : $119.13 : $126.86 : +6.49% : 129.57 :
DXY : $102.21 : $92.282 : -9.72% : 103.82 :
Djia  : $19,763 : $24,719 : +25.1% : 24,876 :
GLD-: $109.61 : $123.65 : +12.8% : 128.32 :
EUR-: $1.0520 : $1.2001 : +14.1% : 1.2093 :
Dj/E : E18,786 : E20,597 : +9.64% :
PHP-: P49.606 : P50.009 : +0.00% : 52.006 :
====

OTHER Indices : USO : GLD : GDX : PHM : IYR : UGLD-vsGDX : : IMGHST.co

[drbubb]

MARKET CYCLES - Gold vs Property Charts

Gold and Property appear to be counter-cyclical - Time to switch into Gold?

Pulte (PHM) vs. Gold (GLD) ... update / 3-yrs :

BLUE Box: Sell PHM, Buy Gold / Red Box: Buy PHM, Sell Gold

3-years Chart : Key Level for PHM ($24.50) - Old chart : Last, PHM: $24.50, GLD: $112.57 / ratio: 21.8%

RATIO : PHM-to-GLD

[drbubb]

For the Weekend: STRANGE & Unusual Stories

BOOM: As Manhattan's Most Secretive Skyscraper Rises, a Super-Elite Clientele Emerges...

Billionaire Dan Och and the musician Sting are among the owners of 220 Central Park South, an ultraluxury tower seemingly immune to New York’s real-estate slowdown

A nearly 1,000-foot-tall tower rising on the southern edge of New York’s Central Park is widely considered the city’s most exclusive and expensive new development. It may also be the most secretive: The developer has refused to release images of unit interiors, and its chief executive refuses to be interviewed about it.

/ 2 /

Mysterious interstellar asteroid could be 'solar sail' sent by aliens, claim astronomers...

 

The JPL team has not yet worked out how to power the craft - and many of their ideas rely on technology that doesn't yet exist, such as this laser sail being developed by the Breakthrough project, which hopes to make to same trip to Alpha Centairi. 

• Mysterious object Oumuamua arrived in our solar system in October 2017 
• NASA spotted unexpected boost in speed and shift in trajectory as it passed through the inner solar system last year
• Now one study claims it could actually be a solar sail sent by aliens 

The study – 'Could Solar Radiation Pressure Explain 'Oumuamua's Peculiar Acceleration?', which recently appeared online – was conducted by Shmuel Bialy, a postdoctoral researcher at the CfA's Institute for Theory and Computation (ITC) and Professor Abraham Loeb, the director of the ITC, the Frank B. Baird Jr. Professor of Science at Harvard University, and the head chair of the Breakthrough Starshot Advisory Committee.  

The researchers say the strange acceleration could the the result of solar radiation pushing a giant solar sail.

They found a sail that was only a fraction of a millimeter thick (0.3-0.9 mm) would be sufficient for a sheet of solid material to survive the journey through the entire galaxy. 

Lightsails with similar dimensions have been designed and constructed by humans, including the Japanese-designed IKAROS project and the Starshot Initiative with which he is involved. 

 

The JPL team has not yet worked out how to power the craft - and many of their ideas rely on technology that doesn't yet exist, such as this laser sail being developed by the Breakthrough project, which hopes to make to same trip to Alpha Centairi. 

[drbubb]

Ratio SPY -to-GLD

[drbubb]

Bonds nearing Key Support (near 110?), & TYX interest at 3.5%

TLT... All-data : 5-yr : 3-yr : 1-yr :

: 5-yr :

TYX ... All : 3yrs :

: All :

[drbubb]

Leveraged Bond etf, here's the Bear version

TBT-etc /  ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ... update :

Ratio : TBT to SH

At some point, when stocks get really stressed (with SH rising), money flows out of stocks and into bonds, bringing Bond yields down, pushing bond prices higher, and dragging down TBT. (that is the theory anyway)

At some point, when stocks get really stressed (with SH rising), money flows out of stocks and into bonds, bringing Bond yields down, pushing bond prices higher, and dragging down TBT. (that is the theory anyway)

I have been looking at some PUTS on TBT, which would do well if Bonds rose / Interest rates dropped

TBT Dec.21st $42 puts ... update :

[drbubb]

WEEKLY Data - Needs update

 ==== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg :   03/29  : 06/29 :   09/28 : 10/26 :  11/02 :
Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1327.3 : 1254.5 : 1196.2 : 1235.1 : 1233.1 :
GLD- : 109.61 : 123.65 : +12.8% : 125.79 : 118.65 : 112.76 : 116.77 : 116.65 :
SPY- : 223.53 : 266.86 : +19.4% : 263.15 : 271.28 : 290.72 : 265.33 : 271.89 :
SPX- : 2238.8 : 2673.6 : +19.4% : 2691.3 : 2718.4 : 2914.0 : 2658.7 : 2723.1 :
Sp/Au 194.4%: 204.2%: ====== : 219.0%: 216.7%: 243.6%: 215.3% : 220.8% :
XLE : $75.32 : $72.24 : -4.09% : $67.41: $75.94 : $75.74 : $66.48 : $67.56 :
WTIc: $53.72 : $60.42 : +12.4% : $64.94 : $74.15 : $73.25 : $67.59 : $63.14 :
Au/Wt:  r-21.4 :  r-21.7 : ====== : r-20.44 : r16.92 : r-16.33 : r-18.27 : r-19.53 :
Ngas: $3.350 : $2.950 : - 11.9% : $2.730 : $2.920 : $3.010 : $3.220 : $3.280 :
Cop'r: $2.510 : $3.305 : +31.7% : $3.030 : $2.970 : $2.810 : $2.740 : $2.810 :
Soyb : 1000.0 : 950.00 : ---------------------------------------> 845.50 : 857.75 : 887.75 :
Weat : 408.00 : 426.25 : +4.47% : 451.00 : 501.25 : 509.00 : 505.25 : 508.75 :
Corn : 352.00 : 350.75 : - 0.36% : 387.75 : 371.25 : 356.25 : 367.75 : 371.25 :
CRB- : 192.51 : 193.86 : +0.07% : 195.36 : 200.39 : 195.16 : 195.51 : 192.30 :
DBA : $19.97 : $18.76 : -6.06%: $18.18: $18.03: $16.91 : $17.72 : $17.77 :
D/crb: 10.37% :  9.67% : ====== :  r9.31% : r8.99% : r8.66% : r9.06%: r9.24% :
Xle/D: r-3.770 : r-3.850: +2.14%: R3.707 : R4.212 :  R4.479: R3.750 : R3.802 :
DXY- : 102.38 : $92.30 : - 9.85% : $89.81 : $94.47 : $95.13 : $96.13 : $96.50 :
TLT- : 119.13 : 126.86 : + 6.49% : 121.90 : 121.72 : 117.27 : 114.99 : 112.00 :
=====
Gold : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1327.3 : 1254.5 : 1196.2 : 1235.1 : 1233.1 :
Au/hd: r1.401 : r1.58E : ====== : r-1.569 : r-1.532 : r-1.612 : r1.64E : R1.624 :
Hold : 822.17 : 830.00 : +01.0% : 846.12 : 819.04 : 742.23 : 755est : 759.06 :
WPM : $19.32 : $22.27 : +15.3% : $20.37 : $22.06 : $17.50 : $16.40 : $17.15 :
GDX- : $20.92 : $23.24 : +11.1% : $21.98 : $22.31 :$18.52 : $19.06 : $19.63 :
Gdxj : $31.55 : $34.13 : +8.18% : $32.15 : $32.70 : $27.36 : $28.27 : $28.06 :
SIL-- : $32.11 : $32.64 : +1.65% : $30.72 : $28.88 : $24.23 : $23.91 : $24.11 :
/SLV: R2.053 : R2.042 : - 0.54% : R1.994 : R1.910 : R1.765 : R1.731 : r1.740 :
SLV- : $15.64 : $15.98 : +2.08% : $15.41 : $15.15 : $13.73 : $13.81 : $13.86 :
Silvr : 16.580 : 17.150 : +3.44% : 16.268 :  16.200 : 14.710 : 14.66? : 14.760 :
PHM : $18.38 : $33.34 : +81.4% : $29.49 : $28.75 : $24.77 : $23.93 : $24.27 :
EEM- : $35.01 : $47.30 : +35.1% : $48.28 : $43.33 : $42.92 : $38.67 : $40.82 :
ShCm: 3103.7 : 3307.2 : +6.56% : 3168.9: 2847.4 : 2821.3 : 2598.8 : 2676.5 :
PhpSi: 6840.6 : 8558.4 : +25.1% : 7979.8: 7193.7 : 7276.8 : 7076.2 : 7140.3 :
XLF-  : $23.25 : $27.19 : +16.9% : $27.57: $26.59 : $27.58 : $25.26 : $26.38 :
IWM- : 134.85 : 152.43 : +13.0% : 151.83: 163.77 : 168.55 : 147.48 : 154.00 :
F/iwm 0.1724 : 0.1784 : =====  : 0.1816 : 0.1624 : 0.1636 : 0.1713 : 0.1713 :
BTC-- : $948.5 : 13,100 : x13.8X : $7,401 : $5,883 : $6,652 : $6,396 : $6,322 :
==== : Fye'16 : Fye'17 : +-%chg :  03/29  :  06/29 :  9/28  :  10/26 :  11/02 :

GOLD (to XLE Oil Ratio) coming off 3-Year Low

[drbubb]

This chart may help you predict when the next bitcoin rally is coming

MarketWatch

“Monitoring bitcoin difficulty growth is an important indicator of how close we are to the mining breakeven threshold and if we are going to experience a period where inefficient miners begin to leave the network,” wrote Kevin Lu and Thejas Naval of Element Digital Asset Management, in a research note.

The team added that as miners leave the network it can indicate a rally is coming, but not immediately “Historical cycles suggest that we may need to experience 6 to 12 months of negative to flat difficulty growth for prices to bottom,” they added.

Read: If you’re mining bitcoin from home, you’re now losing money

However, with mining difficulty negative for the second time this year and bitcoin now 10 months into its current bear-market, defined as a fall of 20% from its alltime high, those holding their prized digital assets may be on the cusp of a change in fortunes.

“Historical cycles also illustrate that periods of negative difficulty growth occur near bear market cycle bottoms,” they wrote.

[drbubb]

Can DBA & GLD lead precious metal shares higher?

DBA-vs: GLD, GDX, SLV, SIL ... update : w/XLE, FCX : w/GCM :

On the longer term charts, the bounce in DBA hardly shows up

GBS-GoldBullion vs: DBA, XLE, EUR ... update :

[drbubb]

Charles Nenner – Gold Prices Rising ($2500) in Coming Deflation

S.T. low in stocks due on 6th-7th Nov. Another Low in early Dec

World renowned geopolitical and market cycle expert Charles Nenner predicts gold prices going up during the coming deflation. Nenner says, “It will take a little time to rally, but our target is $2,500 per ounce. People say how can you look for no inflation and also see gold going up in price? If you look at the history of finance, most bull markets in gold were in deflationary periods, not inflationary periods. Why gold in deflationary periods? If everything loses value, people will run to gold because at least they will have something.” On the enormous global debt of $250 trillion, Nenner warns, “In the 1930’s, Roosevelt had the same problem. He had a lot of debt, but because of inflation, he paid maybe 15 cents on the dollar. The problem here is there is no inflation. There is going to be deflation. With liquidity problems, when rates go up, we are really going to have a major problem because the money that you owe doesn’t go down, and you have to pay everything back. That is very concerning.”

Nenner expects DB to bottom at around $8 in Feb.2019

[drbubb]

Women & Children First?

Sara Carter shares her firsthand experience of caravan

 

"They pushed the Woman & Children to the front, putting them at risk"

[drbubb]

After a higher opening, SOXX seems to be suggesting a DOWN day in stock indices

(there's a GAP STILL BELOW to be filled, eh?)

SOXX vs: SPY, IWM : 10d : SPY-lead : SPY : IWM : faag's :

In edit ... Update/ Lower: SPY 10d : Nov.275p 5d : Puts are below my breakeven price of $6.70-ish

[drbubb]

[drbubb]

Can you hear the Cackling?  It may be pre-mature

Pelosi Tells Democrats That House of Rep’s is IN THE BAG

Crooked Hillary Declares Blue Wave Win: ‘Today, We Say Enough’ of Trump

Two-time failed presidential candidate Hillary Clinton heralded a Democrat “Blue Wave” victory before the midterm polls closed Tuesday, saying Democrats are through with President Trump.

“For the past two years, we’ve watched this administration attack and undermine our democratic institutions and values,” Clinton tweeted. “Today, we say enough.”

Clinton then engaged in classic projection, saying Dems would vote against radicalism, bigotry, and corruption – all tenets of the current Democrat Party.

> PREDICTION THREAD :

All I can say now Is: Thank God the (would be) Cackler-in-Chief was not elected 2 years ago.  I do hope my fellow country men have retained their discernment and voted sensibly

[drbubb]

> ABC Election Map : https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/fullpage/midterm-election-map-2018-live-results-58723598

Now Predicting : +33 for Dems in the House

ABC: was +33.. In edit: +31, +25, +24, +28, +32

My man Styx said:
"So far looking better for GOP than Polls expected.
If this holds, the GOP will retain the House"

... but things later got worse for GOP in House Races

[drbubb]

Two of my Favorite Asian property-related shares are Hang Lung & Shang

( I own HK10, but not SHNG yet )

HSI & PSEI, vs HK10 & SHNG ... update : since Nov. 2014 : 10d :

video: Hong Kong Is Growing Slowly, Says Hang Lung's Chan

Ronnie Chan, chairman of Hang Lung Properties, discusses retail in China, Hong Kong's economy, Hong Kong retail, how the U.S.-China trade war could impact his business, rising interest rates and Hong Kong's residential market. He speaks on "Bloomberg Markets: China Open" from the sidelines of the Bloomberg New Economy Forum in Singapore. 

> https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2018-11-06/hong-kong-is-growing-slowly-says-hang-lung-s-chan-video

NEWS.

Hang Lung snaps up prime Hangzhou plot for US$1.7b/ 29 May 2018

HL's Largest single investment ever? 

The land is believed to be the most expensive plot for commercial project development in the capital city of affluent Zhejiang province, and one of Hang Lung’s priciest ever mainland acquisitions.
Total investment of 19 billion yuan is earmarked for the planned project, a large-scale commercial mixed-use complex, comprising a world-class shopping centre and office tower, the Hong Kong real estate major said late on Monday.
HK$ Rmb 19 Bn /6.93= US$ 2.74 Bn x1.13 = HKD 21.47 Billion (1.36B, 2.51B shs)
= HK$15.79 per HK10 share, & HK$8.55 per HK101 share

Hangzhou City, China's Manhattan > article

HangLung : IR-news : SCMP :

[drbubb]

NNT = Black Swan man

Taleb Says World Is More Fragile Today Than in 2007

 

Debt Spiral = Govt's will have to borrow more & more at higher & higher rates.

It's a Ponzi scheme... and all Ponzi schemes collapse

"First Show to drop will probably be Real Estate" ... "already started with High End Real Estate"

[drbubb]

LONG Term & Thought-provoking; Excellent

"An inevitable return"?

The Fall Of The US Dollar: Is The Return To A Gold Standard Inevitable?

 

As the cycle goes on... an Increasing Supply of Bonds can Only be sold to the public... at INCREASING INTEREST RATES

(yeah, and increasing risk of default!)

[drbubb]

America Votes : Let CHAOS Reign !

Witches to "empower" & manifest Democratic chaos in the House

(if you think you detest angry & illogical Dems now... wait two years.)

The House versus The Senate & the shifting Judiciary?

READY TO RUMBLE!
Dems poised to slam Trump with subpoenas...
Tax returns already in crosshairs...
DIVIDED STATES OF AMERICA...

===

DEMS won The House, gaining more than 30 seats … versus +23 needed.

Trump may be impeached, but with GOPs strong majority in the House, it will go nowhere, just embarrass the Dems (probably)

The House will become a circus, putting the Demon-Rats on full display.

America will become more and more angry, and more people get red-pilled by Dem insanity

[hector]

DrB, opinions on bidding Oil?

Brent seems to have reached trendline support a day ago.

Its quite difficult for me to trade oil speculatively from the UK, but I think this fund https://www.wisdomtree.eu/en-gb/etps/commodities/boost-brent-oil-3x-leverage-daily-etp will do what I want.