DrBubb's Diary - Apr. 2019 Trading - v.123

[drbubb]

Dr.B's Trading Diary : 2019. Diary's 123th Month = Over 10 years.

10 years since 3/09 Low : Dow closed 2017 @ 24,719, 2018 @ 23,327 - 5.63% (YrH: 26,952 / L: 21,713 - 19.4%)

Top of Page Charts (Odd) : Channel-GE : MP : PP : Charts : Acore : Fringe : Ag B E G H :

Featured Video (coming)

================

DrBubb's Diary - Apr. 2019 Trading - v.123

The Fed's Racetrack: Gold (GLD) vs Stocks (SPY) : update :vs.CRB : GLD-hr : SPY-hr : GLD/SPYratio

The Fed's money-printing has maintained confidence in markets - but the money has gone not only into stocks, but also into other areas. For many months, money flowed into commodities like Gold, pushing prices higher even faster than stocks, as the chart above shows. But since Gold's peak in Aug.2011, stocks have outperformed gold. Since then, these two assets have tended to trade counter-cyclically to each other.

Gold in EURO - very worthwhile to track

Short Term:

Medium Term - 3 Years: Gold-inEUR or GLD-toEUR

US Stocks: "SPX-in-Euros" .. SPX-to-EUR or SPY-to-FXE  .. update

Ratio - SPX/Euro has often moved in a nice clear channels

DrBubb's "Early Warning System"

Leading Ratio ... LQD:TLT-Weekly-3yrs : TLT-vsLQD : Copper : HG price : CU price : SPY-10/11 : SMH-6mos

I reckon that the LQD-to-TLT ratio should move in harmony with stocks, or maybe LEAD stock moves. If they are moving in different directions, then one should be cautious. (However, the value of this indicator has become suspect in recent years, after giving some false warnings.)
=====
Bullish Percentages :
BPNYA- : http://stockcharts.c...!Lh14,3]&pref=G
BPGDM : http://stockcharts.c...!Lh14,3]&pref=G
NASIT - : NAMOT : Summation Indices

INFLATION Watch / "Drivers" (SPY, GLD, DXY) .. 10d : 6mo-D : 2yr-D : 5yr-D // CU-etc : w/XLE :

Oil or Copper to lead Commodity bounce-back?

GBS-GoldBullion vs: DBA, XLE, EUR ... update :

RECORD : CU may lead GLD and SPY
======

US Fed'l Debt // Formula: (Fed'l Debt - $4.0 Trillion ) x 119 +$100

Date-: DebtTr > G.Eqv /10.40 : - GLD - : - SPY - : -DIFF- : - ratio - : -- CU -- : cu/gld : - FXI - : cu-fxi : - DBA- : - BTC - :

end07: $09.23 > 0,722 : 072.2 : $082.46 : $146.21 : -63.75: 56.398% : $20.0e: XX.X% :: $ 17.05: ==== : $ 32.99 :

end08: $10.70 > 0,897 : 089.7 : $086.52 : $090.24 : -$3.72: 95.878% : $20.0e: XX.X% :: $ 29.09: ==== : $ 26.18 :

end09: $12.31 > 1,089 : 108.9 : $107.31 : $111.44 : -$4.13: 96.294% : $30.0e: XX.X% :: $ 42.26: ==== : $ 26.44 :

end10: $14.03 > 1,294: 129.4 : $138.74 : $125.75 : $12.99: 110.34% : $43.71: 31.51%: $ 43.09: $0.62: $ 32.35 : $ 00.29 :

end11: $15.22 > 1,435: 138.0 : $151.99 : $125.50 : $26.49: 121.11% : $29.29: 19.27%: $ 34.87: - 5.58: $ 28.88 : $ 04.60 :

end12: $16.43 > 1,570: 151.0 : $162.02 : $142.41 : $19.61: 113.77% : $30.34: 18.73%: $ 40.45:-10.11: $ 27.95 : $ 13.48 :

end13: $17.35 > 1,689: 162.4 : $116.12 : $184.69 : -68.57 : 062.87% : $22.27: 19.18%: $ 38.37:-16.10: $ 24.25 :$815.00 :

end14: $18.14 > 1,783 : 171.4 : $113.58 : $205.54 : -98.04 : 55.26% :: $18.09: 15.93%: $ 41.62:-23.53: $ 24.89 :$316.20 :

end15: $18.83 > 1,865 : 179.3 : $101.46 : $203.87 :-102.41: 49.77% :: 2.135 : 2.140%: $ 35.29:-00.00: $ 20.61: $433.50 :

end16

(2016)
01/29: $19.01 > 1,886 : 180.0 : $108.05 : $193.65 : - $85.60: 55.80% :: 2.060 : 1.907% $ 31.20:-00.00: $ 19.99: $375.00 :
02/29: $19.13 > 1,900 : 181.3 : $118.64 : $193.56 : - $74.98: 61.29% :: 2. ??? : 1.000% $ 30.00: -00.00: $ 20.00: $434.00 :
03/31: $19.26 > 1,916 : 182.8 : $117.64 : $205.52 : - $87.88: 57.24% :: 2. ??? : 1.000% $ 33.77: -13.17: $ 20.60: $415.00 :
04/30: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $123.65 : $206.33 : - $82.68: 59.93% :: 2. ??? : 1.000% $ 33.53: -12.45: $ 21.08: $4 ??.00 :
05/31: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $116.06 : $209.84 : - $93.78: 55.31% :: 2.080 : 1.792% $ 33.65: -12.34: $ 21.31: $526.10 :

06/30: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $126.47 : $209.48 : - $83.01: 60.37% :: 2.0 ?? : 0.000% $ 00.00: -00.00: $ 00.00: $0
07/31: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $128.98 : $217.12 : - $88.14: 59.40% :: 2.0 ?? : 0.000% $ 00.00: -00.00: $ 00.00: $0
08/31: $19.0E > 1,885 : 181.3 : $124.78 : $217.38 : - $92.60: 57.40% :: 2.080 : 1.667% $ 37.08: -16.85: $ 20.23: $570.00 :

=====
ye'16 : $20.0E > 1,8 xx : 18x.x :

Date-: DebtTr > G.Eqv /10.40 : - GLD - : - SPY - : -DIFF- : - ratio - : -- CU -- : cu/gld : - FXI - : cu-fxi : - DBA- : - BTC - :

======

"GOLD Formula" is : (Fed'l Debt - $4.0 Trillion ) x 119 +$100 : US Govt Debt :: http://www.usgovernmentdebt.us/

The FED must be pleased with the way that money has flowed into stocks, away from Gold. / notes : a b c

[drbubb]

DAILY MONITOR

Month: -SPY- : Chg : volume/ VIX : GDX: +-chg: -GLD- : Chg: volume: x10.?? WTI.Cr: -DXY-- -Chg- : --TLT-: Chg : Posts/Views cum'l
2015
12-31: 203.87 - 2.06: 91.2M: 18.21 : 13.72 +0.06: 101.46 +0.04 : 3.81M: 1060.5 $37.07* 98.693 +0.413: 120.58 +0.54 : 02, 086/ 051, 1,913

 2016
03-31: 205.52 - 0.50: 79.4M: 13.95 : 19.97 - 0.26: 117.64 +0.54: 9.17M: 1233.9 $38.11: $94.63 - 0.10 : 130.61 +0.92 : 096/ 4,518
06-30: 209.48 +2.82: 143.M: 15.63 : 27.71 +0.56: 126.47 +0.63: 15.1M: 1324.7 $48.40: $95.81 +0.05 : 138.90 +0.51: 055/ 1,941
09-30: 216.30 +1.62: 98.7M: 13.29 : 26.43 - 0.26: 125.64 - 0.43: 10.8M: 1317.1 $48.24; $95.42 - 0.10 : 137.51 - 1.24/ 096 : 6,335
12-30: 223.53 - 0.82: 86.9M: 14.04 : 20.92 - 0.83: 109.61 - 0.68: 8.79M: 1151.7 $53.72: 102.38 - 0.27 : 119.13 +0.18/ 096: 13876  

2017
01-31: 227.53 - 0.02 00.0M: 12.09 : 23.93 +0.78: 115.55 +1.68 0.00M: 1211.8 $52.80: $99.74 -0.62 : 119.84 +0.57/ 120: 10255
02-28: 236.47 - 0.64 69.6M: 12.92 : 22.85 +0.01: 119.23 +0.11 8.29M: 1253.9 $54.01: 101.48 +0.32 : 121.74 +0.45/ 085: 7,634
03-31: 235.74 - 0.55 56.2M: 12.37 : 22.81 +0.26: 118.72 +0.25 8.14M: 1251.2 $50.60: 100.22 - 0.07 : 120.71 +0.35/ 120: 23202
04-28: 238.08 - 0.52 50.4M: 10.82 : 22.23 +0.42: 120.77 +0.38 8.86M: 1268.3 $49.33: $99.04 - 0.15 : 122.35 +0.27/ 098: 11915
05-31: 241.44 - 0.06 00.0M: 10.41 : 22.69 +0.10: 120.62 +0.48 0.00M: 1264.8: $48.32: $97.21 +0.00 : 124.14 +0.05/ 106: 6,918
06-30: 241.80 +0.45 49.4M: 11.18 : 22.08 + 0.13: 118.02 -0.30 6.79M: 1242.3: $46.04: $95.64 +0.09 : 125.12 - 0.29/ 095: 5,020
07-31: 246.77 - 0.14 42.9M: 10.25 : 22.86 - 0.05 : 120.75 +0.06 3.82M: 1273.8 $50.17: $92.90 - 0.43 : 124.04 +0.15/ 094: 5,056
08-31: 247.49 +1.48 75.8M: 10.59 : 24.72 +0.56 : 125.82 +1.46 11.3M: 1322.2 $47.23: $92.62 +0.06 : 127.99 +0.38/ 091: 5,034
09-29: 251.23 +0.88 60.7M: 09.51 : 22.96 - 0.20 : 121.58 - 0.63 8.77M: 1284.8 $51.67: $93.07 - 0.06 : 124.76 +0.28/ 067 : 4,235
10-31: 257.15 +0.40 42.7M: 10.18 : 22.48 - 0.28 : 120.67 - 0.46 3.76M: 1277.5 $54.20: $94.54 +0.01 : 124.46 +0.04/ 101 : 2,371
11-30: 265.01 +2.30 104.M: 11.28 : 22.47 - 0.03 : 121.10 - 0.94 7.84M: 1276.7 $57.40: $92.97  - 0.09 : 125.12 - 0.42/ 079 : 2180
12-29: 266.86 - 1.01 60.8M: 11.04 : 23.24 +0.04 : 123.65 +0.80 7.55M: 1309.3 $60.42 : $92.30 - 0.20 : 126.86 +0.20/ 107 : 1590

2018
01-31: 281.90 +0.14 97.6M: 13.54 : 23.75 +0.30 : 127.65 +0.85 13.0M: 1343.1 $64.73 : $89.11 +0.06 : 122.73 +0.72/
02-28: 271.65 - 2.78 101.M: 19.85 : 21.35 - 0.14 : 125.00 - 0.13 4.52M: 1317.9 $61.64 : $90.73 +0.07 : 118.75 +0.75/ 076 : 1093
03-29: 263.15 +3.32 104.M: 19.97 : 21.98 - 0.01 : 125.79 +0.06 6.84M: 1327.3 $64.94 : $90.01 -0.13 : 121.90 +0.59/ 067: 0,880
04-30: 264.51 - 2.05 65.0M: 15.93 : 22.28 - 0.45 : 124.59 - 0.91 9.59M: 1319.2 $68.57 : $91.86 +0.27 : 119.10 +0.21/ 074, 0,630
05-31: 270.94 - 1.67 78.4M: 15.43 : 22.34 - 0.10 : 123.10 - 0.27 7.62M: 1304.7 $66.24 : $93.98 - 0.09 : 121.22 - 0.20/ 074 : 0667
06-29: 271.28 +0.39 74.2M: 16.09 : 22.31 +0.38 : 118.65 +0.43 7.67M: 1254.5 $74.15 : $94.47 - 0.85 : 121.72 - 0.42/ 100 : 1026
07-31: 281.22 +1.38 57.6M: 12.83 : 21.28 +0.01 : 115.99 +0.34 5.45M: 1233.6 $68.76 : $94.55 +0.20 : 119.70 +0.65/ 108 : 1038
08-31: 290.31 +0.01 52.7M: 13.81 : 18.55 - 0.14 : 113.51 - 0.13 4.82M: 1206.7 $69.80 : $95.08 +0.00 : 121.00 - 0.29/ 096 : 0954
09-28: 290.72 +0.03 57.6M: 12.12 : 18.52 +0.18 : 112.76 +0.71 5.78M: 1196.2 $73.25 : $95.13 +0.16 : 117.27 - 0.31/ 081: 0753
10-31: 270.63 +2.86 000.M: 21.23 : 18.93 - 0.21 : 115.15 - 0.65 0.00M: 1215.0 $65.31 : $96.85 - 0.15 : 113.31 - 0.85/ 114: 1184
11-30: 275.65 +1.67 78.5M: 18.07 : 19.09 - 0.08 : 115.54 - 0.20 7.83M: 1220.2 $50.93 : $97.20 +0.41 : 115.33 +0.43/ 163: 1556
12-31: 249.92 +2.17 111.M: 25.42 : 21.09 +0.49 : 121.25 +0.19 8.38M: 1281.3 $45.41 : $96.16 - 0.25 : 121.51 +0.51/ 127: 1254
=====

---: SPY- : Chg : volume/ VIX : GDX: +-chg: -GLD- : Chg: volume: x10.?? WTI.Cr: -DXY- -Chg.- : --TLT- : Chg : Posts/Views cum'l:

DEC
28: 247.75 - 0.32 140.M: 28.34 : 20.60 -0.37 : 121.06 + 0.49 6.75M: 1283.0 $45.33 : $96.39 -0.18 : 121.05 +1.01/ 00, 115: 000, 1100 :
31: 249.92 +2.17 111.M: 25.42 : 21.09 +0.49 : 121.25 +0.19 8.38M: 1281.3 $45.41 : $96.16 -0.25 : 121.51 +0.51/ 00, 127: 000, 1254 :
JAN
30: 267.58 +4.17 84.3M: 17.66 : 22.18 +0.21 : 124.69 +0.71 12.1M: 1315.5 $54.23 : $95.24 - 0.57 : 120.93 - 0.09/ 03, 103: 034, 1195
31: 269.93 +2.35 80.5M: 16.57 : 22.69 +0.51 : 124.75 +0.06 10.0M: 1325.2 $53.79 : $95.56 +0.32 : 121.97 +1.04/ 00, 108: 000, 1284:

FEB
27: 279.20 - 0.12 52.3M: 14.70 : 22.35 - 0.38: 124.69 - 0.89 7.76M: 1321.2 $56.94 : $96.10 -0.02 : 120.43 - 1.38/ 00, 082: 000, 718
28: 278.68 - 0.52 56.1M: 14.78 : 22.24 - 0.11: 123.99 - 0.90 7.51M: 1316.1 $57.22 : $96.23 +0.23 : 120.02 - 0.41/ 03, 085, 032, 750
Mar
28: 280.71 +1.06 53.0M: 14.43 : 22.41 -0.60: 121.90 -1.75 11.4M: 1295.3 $59.30 : $97.20 +0.28 : 126.56 +0.44/
29: 282.48 +1.77 64.1M: 13.71 : 22.42 +0.01: 122.01 +0.11 6.59M: 1298.5 $60.14 : $97.21 +0.01 : 126.44 -0.12/ 01: 83, 022: 688
Apr
01: 285.83 +3.35 65.1M: 13.40 : 21.96 - 0.46: 121.53 - 0.48 11.9M: 1294.2 $61.59 : $97.34 +0.13 : 124.37 -1.79/
02: 285.97 +0.14 37.8M: 13.36 : 22.10 +0.14: 121.98 +0.45 3.92M: 1295.4 $65.54 : $97.29 -0.05 : 124.60 +0.23/
03: 286.42 +0.45 00.0M: 13.74 : 22.07 - 0.03: 121.80 - 0.18 0.00M: 1295.3 $62.46 : $97.10 - 0.19 : 123.52 -1.08/
04: 287.18 +0.76 45.5M: 13.58 : 22.50 +0.43: 122.11 +0.31 7.40M: 1294.3 $62.10 : $97.30 +0.20 : 123.87 +0.35/
08: 288.79 +0.00 00.0M: 13.18 : 22.69 +0.00: 122.51 +0.00 4.27M:
09: 287.31 - 1.48: 66.1M: 14.28 : 22.82 +0.13: 123.15 +0.64 4.65M:
10: 288.29 +0.98: 00.0M: 13.30 : 22.62 - 0.20: 123.53 +0.38 00.0M: 1000.0 $00.00 : $97.17 +0.00: 124.28 +0.00
11: 288.21 - 0.08: 52.0M: 13.02 : 22.25 - 0.37: 121.95 - 1.58  11.6M: 1293.3 $63.57 : $97.06 -0.11 : 123.55 - 0.73/
12: 290.16 +1.95: 55.2M: 12.01 : 22.21 - 0.04: 121.83 - 0.12 5.20M: 1295.2 $63.89 : $96.85 - 0.32 : 122.67 - 0.88/
15: 289.97 -0.19: 00.0M: 12.32 : 22.22 +0.01: 121.60 - 0.23 0.00M: 1000.0 $00.00 : $97.05 +0.20 : 122.98  +0.21/
16: 290.16 +0.19: 48.3M: 12.18 : 21.81 - 0.41: 120.51 - 1.09 9.74M: 1277.0 $64.07 : $96.90 - 0.15 : 122.21 - 0.77/ 00, 040:  000, 280
17: 289.45 - 0.71: 00.0M: 12.60 : 21.66 - 0.15: 120.28 - 0.23 0.00M: 1276.8 $63.87 : $97.05 +0.05 : 122.26 +0.05/
18: 290.02 +0.57: 58.3M: 12.09 : 21.34 - 0.32: 120.37 +0.09 3.82M: 1276.0 $64.07 : $97.38 +0.33 : 122.90 +0.64/ 00, 045: 000, 370
22: 290.27 +0.25: 40.2M: 12.42 : 20.98 -0.64: 120.37 +0.00 2.25M: 1000.0 $65.52 : $97.29 -0.09 : 122.31 - 0.59/
23: 292.88 +0.61: 00.0M: 12.28: 20.82 - 0.16: 120.12 +0.00 0.00M: 1000.0 $66.30 : $97.68 +0.39 : 122.57 +0.26/
24: 292.23 - 0.65: 40.6M: 13.14 : 21.02 +0.20: 120.47 +0.35 4.16M: 1279.4 $65.89 : $98.05 +0.37 : 123.57 +1.00/ 00, 056: 000, 507
25: 292.05 - 0.18: 49.1M: 13.25 : 20.87 -0.15:  120.57 +0.19 4.80M: 1279.7 $65.21 : $98.20 +0.15 : 123.39 - 0.18/ 04, 062: 047, 554
26: 293.41 +0.00: 50.9M: 12.73 : 21.30 +0.00: 121.37 +0.00 0.00M: 1288.8 $63.30 : $98.01 +0.00: 123.81 +0.00/
29: 293.87 +0.46: 57.2M: 13.11 : 20.84 - 0.46: 120.83 - 0.54 4.47M: 1281.4 $63.50 : $97.86 -0.15: 123.02 - 0.19/ 00, 071: 000, 640
30: 294.02 +0.15: 00.0M: 13.12 : 20.89 +0.05: 121.20 +0.37 0.00M: 1286.7 $63.91 : $97.53 -0.33: 123.65 +0.63/ 00, 074: 000, 680
01: 291.81 - 2.21: 61.2M: 14.80 : 20.52 - 0.37: 120.40 - 0.80 12.3M: 1284.2 $63.60 : $97.62 +0.09: 123.90 +0.25/ 11, 011: 003, 003

[drbubb]

Year End price Recap

Prices---- > YrE'16 : YrE'17 : change :  YrE'18 : change :
Gold ------ : 1151.7 : 1309.3 : +13.7% : 1281.3 : - 2.15% :
GLD ------ : 109.61 : 123.65 : +12.8% : 121.25 : - 1.94% :
Ratio ------: r10.51 : r10.59 : ====== : r10.567 : ===== :
GDX ------ : $20.92 : $23.24 : +11.1% : $21.09 : - 9.75% :
GDXJ ---- : $31.55 : $34.13 : +8.18% : $30.22 : - 11.5% :
SIL -------- : $32.11 : $32.64 : +1.65% : $25.02 : - 23.3% :
SLV-------- : $15.64 : $15.98 : +2.08% : $14.52 : - 9.14% :
Ratio ------: r2.053 : R2.043 : ====== : R1.723 : ===== : :
WTI ------- : $53.72 : $60.42 : +12.5% : $45.41 : - 24.8% :
USO ------- : $11.72 : $12.01 : +2.47% : $ 9.66 : - 19.6% :
OIH ------- : $33.25 : $26.05 : - 21.7% : $14.03 : - 46.1% :
XLE ------- : $75.32 : $72.26 : - 4.06% : $57.35 : - 20.6% :
SHcomp : $3,104. : $3,307 : +6.54% : $2,494 : - 24.6% :
=======

Many Gold shares are "COILED & Ready to spring" - if the Dollar slides below $97

  : :

USD Index/DXY: $96.11 -0.29 : Gold : $1282.10 +1.70 ...

DXY/ Trade-wgt $/12mo : DXY: $96.17, EUR: $1.147, GBP: $1.275, CAD: $0.737, AUD: $0.704, PHP: 52.50 (FYE'18)

GDXJ - OIH  vs UDN, SLV ... fr.1/2008 w/Dba : 7/2008 w/Dba :

FXFX : 2017-19.Q2 :

Group #1 : update : JNUG ($9.76), UGLD ($94.65), GDXJ ($31.79)

Group # 2: update : GCM.t ($3.52), CCO.t ($15.56), MUX.t ($2.02)

OIH ($17.99) vs. Drillers: RDC ($11.13), MDR ($8.37), ESV ($4.03) .10d /

==

[drbubb]

Long Term Charts updated from time-to-time, to at least: April 30, 2017

===

IWM / etf for Russell-2000 - 12/31/16 : $134.85,  12/31/17 : $152.46 :

All-log : 10-yrs : 12mos // SPY ... : To-End-2015 : last-12mos

KEY CHARTS 
===========

SPY / S&P500 etf - (UP) ...SPY: to 12/31/16 : $223.53,  12/31/17 : $266.86

updated 12/17/2018 : 2,545.94

All-log / 3yrs : 4yrs : 5yrs : 10yrs : TREND is still UP, but may be rolling over

SPX ... 10-yr

.
TLT / T-Bonds etf - (DOWN) ... TLT: to 12/31/16 : $119.13,  12/31/17 : $126.86

All / 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yr : Made an important Peak in 2016 (?) identified in prior chart here !

.
UUP / USDollar x2 etf - (Peaking?) ... to 12/31/16 : $26.46,,  12/31/17 : $24.03

All / 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yr : long ter, TREND is still UP,

.
USO / Oil etf - (Battling DOWNtrend) ... to 12/31/16 : $11.72, 12/31/17 : $12.01

All / 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yr : 10yrL : Price is battling that old Downtrend

.
XLE / Oil stocks - (Fighting back UP) ... to 12/31/16 : $75.32,  12/31/17 : $72.26

All-log / 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : TREND is still Up

.
OIH / Oil service - (Fight DOWNtrend) ... $11.72, 2016  ,  12/31/17 : $26.05

All-Log :  3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : Major Bottom in place?

.
GLD / Gold etf - (Reversing Downtrend?) ... 12/31/16 : 109.61,  12/31/17 : $123.65

All : 3yrs : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : Reversing to Up?

.
GDX / Gold stocks - (Breaking Downtrend?) ... 12/31/16 : $20.92,  12/31/17 : $23.24

GDX ... All-Log : 3 years : 4 years : 5yrs : 10yrs : Reversed to Up in 2016 maybe?

.HUI Chart - price data goes back further ... 12/31/16 : 182.31, 2016 range: $99.19 to 286.05 : +199.4% - beta 7.64

All-data :

China's Shanghai index last bounced of a support level near 2,600
ShComp 12/31/16 : 3103.6, 2016 range: 2638.3 to 3538.7 : +34.12% - beta 1.305

CN : SHcomp ... All-Log : All-Data

===== other CHARTS =====

10yrs : SLV : GDXJ : / log : AGQ : PSLV : UGL : PHM +, GDXJ -, RGLD -, HK:HSI +, HK:12 -new,

[drbubb]

Gold's approx 6 months & Cycle:

Will the latest Gold Downcycle end with a brief Dip?

Or is a bigger downturn needed? update

PRIOR CYCLES / For months, I had been saying: "Low due near year-end maybe?"

"Next Cycle Low (in GDX) could be Dec. 2017" - it was! ... prior : update :  In October '18, I drew THIS chart



 

GLD, updated: 1-yr: 2-yr : 3-yr : update : prior / UK:GBS: $115.50/ HK-2840 : HK-3081:

HISTORY: The longer history of the cycles looked like this: 2013-15 :

: Low, Dec.15th,2016: 1129.8 / $103.04 = 10.96 / intraday: 1123/$103= 10.90

Look what happened after that Dec.2015 Low - a Nice Rally ! .....And then once again after a Dec. 2016 Low:

TMF (2x Bull etf of Long TBonds, like TLT)

These prices tend to move together : TMF, GDX, UGLD, SLV : Bonds, Gold stocks, Gold, and Silver.  And they have been moving in a shared 4-6 months cycle

TMF-etc... 2-yrs : 5-yrs : 6-mos : update / 10-d : TOP of the Range Again in early April 2019

TMF-etc.10d ... update: Chart below is updated to ??

[drbubb]

Have we already seen Gold's cyclical Low. How important is it?

 

Junior Gold Miners went into a major "Pinch point" - FELL to 2018 low near $26 and then recovered

GDXJ / Jr. Gold Miners ... 10-yr : 5-yr : 3-yrW :  3-yrD : 12-mos / 10d - Old: $33.55 +0.07 : pe: n/a , yield: 0.03% (12mos: $29.69 - 37.75)

Update - GDXJ : 5yr chart : Last : $31.54 - 8/1/18 still looks like a pinchpoint forming to me !

OLD Chart! - It fell out of the pinchpoint to the Downside

UPDATE, Dropped, but has now recovered and stayed OVER Support near $30

[drbubb]

BRADLEY Model : "TURN dates"

SPY... 2015-2018: 12-31-16: $223.53 / 12-29-17: $266.86 : +19.4%

2016 : +Jan. 5, -May 10, +June 1, -July 5, +??, -Sep. 28, +Nov. 29

2017 : +Dec. 29, -Apr.17, +Apr.29, -Jun.21, +Aug.19, -Sep.7, +Dec.3, /

2018  : -Jan.4, +Jan.17 

Model for 2017-8?: 2017 : 2016 : 2015 :

===

Historical TURN: Bonds peaked first in 2015, then the Dollar, then stocks...

TLT... 2015-2018 : 12-31-16: $119.13 / 12-31-17: $126.86 : +6.49%

USD trade-weighted dollar:

DXY ... 2015-2018 : DXY-all-data : 12-31-16: $102.36 / '17: $92.28 : -9.72%

sym: ye.2016 : ye.2017 : %.chg : 2017-H :
SPY : $223.53 : $266.86 : +19.4% : 268.60 :
TLT : $119.13 : $126.86 : +6.49% : 129.57 :
DXY : $102.21 : $92.282 : -9.72% : 103.82 :
Djia  : $19,763 : $24,719 : +25.1% : 24,876 :
GLD-: $109.61 : $123.65 : +12.8% : 128.32 :
EUR-: $1.0520 : $1.2001 : +14.1% : 1.2093 :
Dj/E : E18,786 : E20,597 : +9.64% :
PHP-: P49.606 : P50.009 : +0.00% : 52.006 :
====

OTHER Indices : USO : GLD : GDX : PHM : IYR : UGLD-vsGDX : : IMGHST.co

[drbubb]

MARKET CYCLES - Gold vs Property Charts

Gold and Property appear to be counter-cyclical - Time to switch into Gold?

Pulte (PHM) vs. Gold (GLD) ... update / 3-yrs :

BLUE Box: Sell PHM, Buy Gold / Red Box: Buy PHM, Sell Gold

OLD CHART !

3-years Chart : Key Level for PHM ($24.50) - Old chart :

OLD CHART PHM: $24.50, GLD: $112.57 / ratio: 21.8%

NEW CHART: PHM showed nice rally vs Gold ... update : Last (4/5/19) :  PHM: $28.94, GLD: $121.98 / ratio: 23.7%

RATIO : PHM-to-GLD / rose from 21.8% > 23.7% . that's +8.7% higher , and may be peaking out now

[drbubb]

Financials, FALLING out of a Triangle... Maybe? NOPE. Not for Long. Not yet

XLF / Financials etf ... update w/IWM: 3mo t/ 10d iwm w/ - $26.52 OLD Price



UPDATE - to April 5th : chart : a-b-c Drop, then Rally to near unchanged : Last: $26.60

==

[drbubb]

March 1, I said: "Gold may soon test the Bottom of the UPCHANNEL"

GBS.L / Gold Bullion Securities ... update : Then $123.13 - 0.59,  LAST:  121.54 +0.36, +0.30%

OLD CHART (Marc h 1)

UPDATED (April 5th close) : update :

[drbubb]

BULLISH Kitco

Look For Gold To Shine As Trump Calls For QE4, Fed To Lower Rates - Kitco NewsApr 5

Gold's Break Just Around The Corner? Watching Brexit, FOMC ...  Kitco NewsApr 5

$1,700 Gold Is On The Horizon, Says Analyst Kitco Video News

[drbubb]

MORE on Gold's setup

Has a False Move Lower in Gold Just Begun?

David Erfle

Armstrong also stated in the post: “There is a major liquidity crisis brewing that could pop in May 2019. European Banks have loaded their portfolios with real estate loans thanks to quantitative easing and negative interest rates, and emerging market debt.”

Meanwhile, the world’s reserve currency has moved firmly back above its 50-day moving average, despite the Federal Reserve’s abrupt reversal last week towards a much looser long-term monetary policy. Although the strengthening U.S dollar index has served as a headwind at times to the recent uptrend in gold, both have been receiving alternating safe-haven bids.

However, since gold has recently begun to react more negatively to the greenback’s strength, the yellow metal sliced through its 50-day moving average yesterday and could move quickly towards strong support in the $1275-$1280 region soon. Unless this support zone is held next week, critical support at the $1240-$1250 level may come into play quickly.

One reason for expecting this crucial level in the safe haven metal to hold in the coming months, is the continued positive divergence between gold and gold stocks. The recent outperformance of the gold mining stocks vs the gold price has been a good sign, which suggests the metal’s price outlook will remain positive. Although gold closed well below its critical 50-day moving average yesterday, the global miner ETF has yet to test this crucial support line, or trade lower with panic volume during this corrective move down. The GDX/GLD ratio also remains firmly in its uptrend from last September.

Earlier this week, global miner and sector bellwether Barrick Gold (GOLD) had begun to break out of a year-long reverse head & shoulders basing pattern just below its 200-week moving average. However, as I type this missive, the stock has begun to reverse this move and needs a close today above $14 for the breakout to remain intact. Barrick, together with the second largest global miner Newmont Mining (NEM), have been leading gold stocks higher since the miner rescinded its below market hostile bid for Newmont and instead, stuck a joint venture deal on their collective Nevada operations earlier this month.

Both of these two mining behemoths combined make up roughly 20% of GDX holdings. Historically, when the largest miners are leading the gold stocks from multi-year lows, together with the GDX positively diverging from the gold price, a gold bull market is beginning to form.

> https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2019-03-29/Has-a-False-Move-Lower-in-Gold-Just-Begun.html

[drbubb]

SOXX : $200 is a possible topping area. Let's see what comes next

SOXX ... chart / last: $200.65

via @hks55:   Ray Dalio says the economy looks like 1937 and a downturn is coming in about two years

> https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/the-stock-market-and-economy-look-like-1937/

[drbubb]

Deficit rises $94 billion to $693 billion for first half of the year, budget office estimates

 

Read more: WHAT REALLY HAPPENED | The History The US Government HOPES You Never Learn! https://www.whatreallyhappened.com/#ixzz5kMBYQRHX

[drbubb]

Never Accountable : The Poster child for Toxic Femininity is...

Vain, Entitled, Narcissitic, Talking too much - thinking too little...

'SO HURTFUL': Ocasio-Cortez Whines Over Backlash For Using Accent In Front Of Black Audience

[drbubb]

USD takes a hit > under $97

Gold up. Silver up

[drbubb]

Energy Stocks: BTE & VII

As usual, when the magic starts working, I wish I had done more near the Lows

BTE - VII ... update : C$2.51, +5.02% / C$10.04  +1.31%

[drbubb]

Peter Schiff: Trump has put QE4 in play … Chris Martenson: Unfunded liabilities will crater the U.S. Economy … Goldcore: Silver set to soar to $50/oz …

Read more: WHAT REALLY HAPPENED | The History The US Government HOPES You Never Learn! https://www.whatreallyhappened.com/#ixzz5kY02Uemo

[drbubb]

Uranium still falling... though U-stocks & Oil have been rising

U.t : C$4.39 -0.05, 1.13% / Urptf: US$3.30 -0.40% x 7.8 = $25.75, est. U price

U.t. vs CCO & USO ... 5-yrs : fr. 1/2018 : 10-d :

: fr. 1/2018 :

==

[drbubb]

DEM's Endgame: Free stuff for their voters, Tax farming of Others

LET's MOVE straight to the DEM party endgame:

If you are black or female, EVERYTHING IS FREE.

> more: New thread . 

[drbubb]

Something to Think about?

8 years ago there was a big Rally in commodities like: Agricultural commodities, Silver and Uranium

Prices today are well below those levels - SEE : update :

Meantime, Average Makati Condo prices were near P100,000 per sqm meter in 2011

This week, a new project called Avenue was launched on Apartment Ridge.

It is called THE ESTATE.  And pre-sale prices are in the region of P 550,000 k per sqm

If you are an investor, where do you find the relative value these days:

Property, Food, Silver, or Uranium?

[hector]

I'm starting to think property, as it's relatively scarce and is the new store of value replacing gold. You can also live in it and earn yield on it. Now just need to find someplace where it's undervalued, probably not London unless hard Brexit happens.

[drbubb]

"I'm starting to think property, as it's relatively scarce and is the new store of value replacing gold"

- H.

 

Maybe. Or Maybe not.

Another possibility is that it is cyclical.  And the world has become to complacent towards property,

and bid it up.  While ignoring some more traditional inflation hedges

 

I am even starting to look at some shipping stocks.

Some people used to call them (wrongly): "floating real estate".  But they have not performed as well as property.

Not by a long shot!

 

STNG / Scorpio Tankers Inc. (NYSE) ... update :

[drbubb]

Looking at Shipping Share comparisons

There was a time, when OSG was considered the "blue chip" of Shipping co's

OSG / Overseas Shipping Group ... update :

DSX / Diana Shipping ... update :

OSG / Overseas Shipping Group -vs. DSX, STNG ... update :

xx

Sym. Company-- : Last-$ : E.P.S. PE-R : Yield: BkVal : MkCap : Debt : ebitda : EV.e:  D/ebi: Pr/BV
OSG: O'seaShipH : $ 2.06 : $0.15 : N/A-: 0.00%: $3.88: $176.M: 346.M: $62.2M r7.11 : r0.00: 53.%
DSX: Diana Shpg. : $ 2.92 : $0.10 : 29.2: 0.00%: $6.28: $309.M: 531.M: $89.3M r7.88 : r0.00: 47.%
XXX: XXXXXXXX : $ 0.00 : (0.00): N/A-: 0.00%: $0.00: $000.M: 000.M: $0.00: r7.11 : r0.00: 00.%
Bte.t Baytex Egy.-: C$2.00 : Neg.? N/A-: -N/A- : $5.70: $1.11b: 2.00b: 457M: r6.70 r4.38: 35.%

[drbubb]

EUR versus Gold ... chart :

Gold -in-EUR