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drbubb

PSEI Valuation, PE Ratios / & the "2020 Starter Portfolio"

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Latest PSEI Targets ... All-Data: 5-years: 1-year: 10d / Last: 6,491

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I could see the rally topping at several points between here and (almost) 7,000

I am now operating with the thesis that US Stock rally will continue and gain (temporary) momentum after the election - ie David Hunter's final blowoff scenario.  And the Bust will come in 2021.  I have Created a new thread about this on my website.  This final rally should help Gold & Silver too... and has the potential to ignote a bigger rally in PHL, that could carry PSEI above the resistance from here to 7000

GEI thread : "The PRECIOUS DECADE"

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DONE ALREADY? :

The predicted rally in PSEI & PHL Property stocks may have come and gone already. 

Update: ALI: 32.20 - 4.87%, PSEI: 6,249 - 2.01% = r-0.52%

xFrdHY7.gif

... based in the action of the last two days. 

Having said that, it could get a second wind if US stocks rally after next Tuesday's election. 

(the Winner may need to bless a joint stimulus program)

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On 10/26/2020 at 3:38 PM, drbubb said:

Latest PSEI Targets ... All-Data: 5-years: 1-year: 10d / Last: 6,491

yZYObKf.png

I could see the rally topping at several points between here and (almost) 7,000

 

TARGET HIT !   HERE WE ARE ... update:  Last: 6,959 + 41

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RESISTANCE NOT FUTILE? 

PSEI now at an important resistance level - as cash holdings grow...

Remaining holdings include Dividend stocks, like AREIT & SHNG

AREIT announced today: "At its regular meeting held this morning, approved the declaration of cash dividends of P0.34 per outstanding common share for the third quarter of 2020... Payable on Dec. 17, 2020 to stockholders on record as of Dec. 7, 2020.

PHL Property shares... YTD:  Core-4: ALI: 38.85 / 6,959= xx%,

May also be topping out... but no signs of falls yet... so hold off on buying the champagne.

uw6EL0Z.gif

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BETTER TOGETHER?  PSEI & UKX: they may be both topping out

Strangely. Bizarrely.  Philippine's & UK stocks have charted better together than separately

When I saw the chart of the FTSE100 today, it looked very familiar, so I put them together on one chart

UKX vs-PSEI... from 11.19.19: Nov'15: May'13 / 1yr: 3yr; 5yr: 10yr: ytd; 10d/ Last: 6,338 vs. 6,998 : 97%

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c

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In my chart there, going back to before 2014. I see two markets, UKX & PSEI, which may now be peaking out together,  And may be ready for a big drop.  Do others see the same?  The A-B-C rally back to the breakpoint may be ending

I have been raising more and more cash.  It is hard to find anything I want to buy... Other than Calls on precious metals (preferring Silver) & some precious metals shares.  Pondering Puts on Banks

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Two Indices and a Property Stock,

Bizarrely, UKX & ALI, seem to work like bellwethers, or wolf pack members, running with PSEI

PSEI vs... 5yr: 3yr: fr. 1/2018: Mar.2019: 12.2019: YTD: 10d/ 6,791 vs. ALI:  38.00= 0.56%,  UKX: 6,368= 93.8%

sWlPf3P.gif

Mar.2019:

kKGCOAo.gif

===

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ROLLOVER (still) Coming?

PSEI-etc .... from May2020: July2020: YTD: 10d/

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PSEI ROLLOVER still looks likely. and could happen before Christmas - see chart above...

I missed out on some great gains on some 3rd Line stocks I once owned.  But progress in PSEI recently has been minor

Today vs. Recent high close
Sym. : High,  date :   Last : % chg.:
PSEI  : 7,300, 12.16: 7,298 : -0.03%
ALI    :  42.00, 12.17: 42.00 : -0.00%
SMph: 39.50, 11.20: 38.80 : -1.77%
UKX  :  6,600, 12.10: 6,571 : -0.43%
====
Strong close today. Thursday - chart above was made earlier

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Rollover scenario, update & comparison with UK stock index

Today vs. Recent high close
Sym. : High,  date :   Last : % chg.:
PSEI  : 7,300, 12.16: 7,298 : -0.03%
ALI    :  42.00, 12.17: 42.00 : -0.00%
SMph: 39.50, 11.20: 38.80 : -1.77%
UKX  :  6,600, 12.10: 6,571 : -0.43%
====

PSEI vs. UK and ALI... update:

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===

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Rollover is here

Chart / Last: 6.552.46 - 176.09  Low: 6,489.79

UM8c2BE.png

   

 

 

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BACK TO BASE?  (6,500 mid-point) Where next?

PSEI update... w/others / Last: 6,495

hLr2KRB.gif

Fri.close vs. Mid 2019 high
Sym. : High,  2019 : 04.16 / %vs H :
PSEI  : 8,365, 07.15: 6,495 : - 32.4%
ALI    : 53.50, 07.15: 33.25 : - 37.9%
SMph: 42.40, 03.??: 35.85 : -1.77%
MEG : P6.50, 07.15: P3.38 : -1.77%
UKX  :  7,648, 07.30: 7,020 : -8.21%

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PSEI back near top of Downtrend

PSEI ... update : 6,888 -85

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6/17.close vs. Mid 2019 high
Sym. : High,  2019 : 06.17 / %vs H:
PSEI  : 8,365, 07.15: 6,888 : - 17.7%
ALI    : 53.50, 07.15: 36.65 : - 31.5%
SMph: 42.40, 03.??: 36.95 : -12.9%
MEG : P6.50, 07.15: P3.19 : -51.0%
UKX  :  7,648, 07.30: 7,148 : -6.54%

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PSEI vs UKX - About to Rollover ?

PSEI vs UKX - ... 5yr: 4yr: 2yr: 1yr: from 6.28.2020:  Psei (6,938) / UKX (7,103) = ratio: 97.7%

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From 2017:

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update

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RATIO: Psei (6,938) / UKX (7,103) = ratio: 97.7%

xxx

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Timing CLUES from Gambling co's...  PLC and BEL ?

update / Last: PLC: 0.445 /6,835 = xx.  BEL: 1.46 /6,835  = 2.13%. 

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