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PHL Listed Holding Co's - Do they show cycles?


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PHL Listed Holding Co's - Do they show cycles?

UPDATE:  GtCap: 400.0 / MBT: 54.00 = Ratio: 7.40x (12.19.22). Note: 7.77 MBT shares back each GTCap shares!

Previous:  GtCap: 422.0 / MBT: 36.80 = Ratio: 11.47x (5.06.20), see chart#2 below

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GTCap owns 37.2% of MBT = 1,673 MBT shs; each GTCAP sh is backed by 7.77 MBT shs.

Symbol: Price: BkVal.: %B.V.: Shares: MktCap:  Divs. :
GTCap : P400. : P901.: 44.4%: 215.3M=  P86.1B: 0.0B :
MBT.    : 54.00 : 70.82: 76.2%: 4,497M= P243.B.
37.2%.  : 54.00  : ========  : 1,673M= P90.4B

GTCAP, Three largest shareholders.  : # shares: 10.13.22
GRAND TITAN CAPITAL HOLDING' INC : 120.41M: 55.93%
PCD NOMINEE CORP.<FILIPINO>.         :  52.70M: 24.47%
PCD NOMINEE CORP.<NON-FILIPINO> :  19.17M :  8.90%
===== Top 3 shareholders.                  : 191.78M:  89.08%
===== Other shareholders                    :  23.50M: 10.92%
===== TOTAL shareholders                  : 215.28M: 100.0%

Initial Fav is GTCap / MTB: 2020: 1yr: 6mo: Mar.2020: 10d/

At Lows: == : PER : Yield : =========: PER : Yield :
MTB-35.00 : 5.74: 2.86%/ Gtcap- 381 : 4.72: 0.73%

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I am also following:

Cosco Cap'l-vs.PGold: YTD-2020: 10d / 5.14.20:  P 5.11 : 46.50 / ratio: 11.0%

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Starting to look at these...

4 PHL Holding Co's ... 4-yr: fr. 5.1.2016 : 2yr: 1yr: 10d /

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On Two Year chart, SM is "the clear winner" : 2yr: fr.5.6.2018: w/PSEI: 1yr: 10d /

AGI has been "the big bust" since last summer, and AC now looks like it "wants to rejoin the winner's circle"

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4 Big PHL Holding Co’s ... DATA - at 5..6.2020

Sym. : Stock ----- : 5.6.20: PE-R: Earns. Yield: Divid. YrHigh: %offH
AC — : Ayala Corp : P639.: R11.9: P53.7: 1.30%: P8.3 : 990.5 : -35.5%
AGI -  : Alliance Gl.: P607.: R3.77: P161.: 0.00%: zero : 16.20 : -62.6%
GTcap: GT Capital : P422.: R5.23: P80.7: 0.66%: P2.8 : 972.0: -56.6%
SM — : SM Invest. : P832.: R22.5: P37.0: 1.10%: P9.2 : 1100.: -24.4%
DMY  : Dummy Co.: 00.00: 00.00: P0.00: 0.00%: zero : 00.00: -00.0%
=====

I am SURPRISED to see:
+ the wide differences  in PE ratios. SM is 6x the PER of AGI
+ the low dividend yields of all of them, average is well below PSEI
+ All 4 are well off their peak prices.  Valuations at peaks seem crazy in hindsight

Websites: Ayala Corp.: Alliance Global: GT Capital: SM Investment:

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EYEBALLING the charts... for GTCap / Metrobank
+ I need to dig deeper, but I am probably most attracted to GTcap (5.2 PE)  at this stage
+ It's largest holding is: MBT / Metrobank which has a historical PE of 6.0 and a yield of 2.7%
+ Is GTcap "adrift" after the passing of the Founder, George Ty? No. Strong mgmt. team is in place
+ I Wish the yield on GTCap was higher than 0.66%, but at near 3%, MBT starts to look attractive
====
GTcap vs- MTB, MPI 2011: 5yr : from 1/2016: fr. 5.6.2018 : 1yr: 6mo: 10d/

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: fr. 5.6.2018 : 2020: 1yr: 6mo: 10d/
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: 2020: 1yr: 6mo: Mar.2020: 10d/

At Lows: == : PER : Yield : =========: PER : Yield :
MTB-35.00 : 5.74: 2.86%/ Gtcap- 381 : 4.72: 0.73%

FWyCNzC.gif

Sym. : Stock -----: 5.6.20: PE-R: Earns. Yield: Divid. YrHigh: %offH
GTcap GT Capital : P422.: R5.23: P80.7: 0.66%: P2.8 : 972.0: -56.6%
BT --  : Metrobank : P36.8: R6.03: P6.10: 2.72%: P1.0 : 70.04: -47.5%
MPI - : MetroPacif: P2.78: R3.68: P0.76: 3.97%: 0.11 : P5.78: -51.9%
=====

GT Capital (PSE:GTCAP) is a major listed Philippine conglomerate involved in banking through Metrobank,

automotive through Toyota, property through Federal Land ...

PRESENTATION: Mar.2020:

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COSCO Capital Suggestion - from A.Q. on a viber chat

Another seemingly undervalued  stock is Cosco,
Parent of Puregold (owns 48.6%), which in turn owns SnR and 70% of Lawsons-PH
Among the resilient sectors even post-ecq

(source pse edge)
stock price 4.92.  Book value 14.78 (33% Book)
9-mo 2019 = core eps 0.57   or 1.63 with one- time sale of Liquigaz.
FY 2019 EPS estimate 0.80 core or 1.86 with liquigaz(Q4 usually a strong quarter)
Dividend 0.12
2 B budget for buyback / 1.4B used

What seems to be holding back this issue when Pgold is near 52-week high???

====
Cosco, PGold ... 10yr: 5yr: from 2018 peak: ytd: 10d / 5.14.20:  P 5.11 : 46.50 / ratio: 11.0%
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Cosco-vs.PGold: YTD-2020: 10d / 5.14.20:  P 5.11 : 46.50 / ratio: 11.0%

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Sym. : Stock ---- : 5.14.20: PE-R: Earns. Yield: Divid. YrHigh: %offH
Cosco: Cosco Cap: P5.11 : R2.76: P1.85: 2.35%: 12.0 : P7.30: -30.0%
PGold: Pure Gold.  : 46.50 : R20.4: P0.00: 0.86%: zero : 50.00: - 7.0%
==== : Compare :
GTcap: GT Capital : P404.: R5.00: P80.8: 0.69%: P2.8 : 972.0: -58.6%
MBT -: Metrobank : P36.0: R5.90: P6.10: 2.78%:  P1.0 : 70.04: -48.6%
=====

Cosco Capital, Inc. (COSCO) – through its majority stake in Puregold Price Club Inc., one of the top and most recognized brands in Philippine retail, and its acquisition of S&R Membership Shopping – is able to fully serve the needs of Filipino consumers from all income brackets. COSCO claims that the diversity of its businesses and its formidable management team gives the Company a necessary edge to lead and succeed in these fields: Retail, Real Estate, Liquor Distribution and Oil and Mineral Exploration.

> source: https://www.pinoyinvestor.com/smartinvestor/cosco-capital-inc-cosco-2/

Cosco "All aspects" chart ... update /

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Cosco Capital Incorporated, formerly Alcorn Gold Resources Corporation, is an investment holding company. The Company has a portfolio of business interests in its business segments, including grocery retail, real estate and property leasing, liquor distribution, oil and mining, and specialty retail. The grocery retail segment offers imported and local groceries, and other consumer products, such as canned goods, housewares, toiletries, dry goods, and food and non-food products. The liquor distribution segment offers a portfolio of imported alcoholic beverages, including brandy, rum, whisky, tequila, wines and specialty non-alcoholic beverages. Through the oil and mining segment, it sells hydrocarbon. The specialty retail segment, through Office warehouse, sells school and office supplies, technology items, home/office furniture, and equipment and related products. // sold?: The specialty retail segment, through Liquigaz, imports and distributes liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). //

> https://www.reuters.com/companies/COSCO.PS

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Largest Php Volume (by far) today was...

10d :
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6mo
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==
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Still headed towards a Buy Window...?

GTcap, MBT ... 10yr: 5yr: from 2018 peak: 10d / Last: 404. -16 : 36.00, -0.20 / ratio: 11.22

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: 10d /

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UPDATING some metrics

Stock: Year : Revs. : E.P.Sh : Divs: %Ern. CF/sh: shsOS/ LTD.OS: ShEqy: NW/sh: YrEnd %-NW
SMC- : 2018: 1,024.B P6.63: P1.40: 21.1% 31.0 /2.379B/ 801.6B: 337.7B: 142.0: 147.0: 103.%
SM. -  : 2019: 506.3B 37.00: P9.12: 24.6% 53.1 /1.205B/ 404.3B: 382.6B: 317.6: 1,043: 328.%
SMPH: 2019: 120.1B P1.32: 0.350: 26.5% 1.69 /28.87B/ 130.1B: 300.9B: 10.42: 42.10: 404.%
SHNG: 2018: 12.65B: P0.63: 0.196: 31.1% 0.51 /4.764B/ 10.19B: 32.78B: P6.88: P3.25: 47.2%
ALI -   : 2019: 168.8B: P2.25: 0.520: 23.1% 2.87 /14.72B/ 228.6B: 211.1B: 14.34: 45.50: 317.%
AC  -   : 2019: 330.9B: 102.9: P8.30: 8.07% 86.0 / 627.M/ 427.7B: 328.8B: 524.7: 785.5: 150.%
AGI -   : 2018: 156,8B P1.51 : 0.100: 6.62% 2.19 /10.04B/ 192.5B: 172.2B: 17.16: 11.90: 69.3% :
GtCap: 2019: 226.8B 73.88: P3.00: 4.06% 106. / 215.M/ 124,3B: 177.8B: 824.4: 847.0: 97.3% :
Cosco: 2018: 00.00B P0.76: 0.000: 00.0% 0.00/ 7.27 B/ 00.00B: 58.65B: P8.21: P6.71: 00.0% :
Stock: Year : Revs. : E.P.Sh : Divs: %Ern. CF/sh: shsOS/ LTD.OS: ShEqy: NW/sh: YrEnd %-NW

USING Wed. 05/21 closing prices - Valuations look very different

Stock: Year : Revs. : E.P.Sh : Divs: %EPS CF/sh: shsOS/ LTD.OS: ShEqy: NW/sh: 02/21 : %NW: yield
SMC- : 2018: 1,024.B P6.63: P1.40: 21.1% 31.0 /2.379B/ 801.6B: 337.7B: 142.0: P95.95: 67.6%: 1.46%
SM. -  : 2019: 506.3B 37.00: P9.12: 24.6% 53.1 /1.205B/ 404.3B: 382.6B: 317.6: P 835.: 263.%: 1.09%
SMPH: 2019: 120.1B P1.32: 0.350: 26.5% 1.69 /28.87B/ 130.1B: 300.9B: 10.42: 28.95: 278.%: 1.21%
SHNG: 2018: 12.65B: P0.63: 0.196: 31.1% 0.51 /4.764B/ 10.19B: 32.78B: P6.88: P2.66: 38.7%: 6.86%
ALI -   : 2019: 168.8B: P2.25: 0.520: 23.1% 2.87 /14.72B/ 228.6B: 211.1B: 14.34: 32.05: 224.%: 1.65%
AC  -   : 2019: 330.9B: 102.9: P8.30: 8.07% 86.0 / 627.M/ 427.7B: 328.8B: 524.7: 684.5: 130.%: 1.21%
AGI -   : 2018: 156,8B P1.51 : 0.100: 6.62% 2.19 /10.04B/ 192.5B: 172.2B: 17.16: P6.14: 35.8%: -N/A-
GtCap: 2019: 226.8B 73.88: P3.00: 4.06%  106. / 215.M/ 124,3B: 177.8B: 824.4: 367.6: 44.6% : 0.76%
MBT - : 2019: 146.1B P6.24: P1.00: 16.0%  106. / 4.50 B/ 1,714B: 309.6B: 68.83: 34.00: 49.4% : 2.94%
Cosco: 2018: 00.00B P0.76: 0.000: 00.0% 0.00 / 7.27 B/ 00.00B: 58.65B: P8.21: P5.04: 00.0% : 2.38%
Stock: Year : Revs. : E.P.Sh : Divs: %EPS CF/sh: shsOS/ LTD.OS: ShEqy: NW/sh: 02/21 : %NW: yield

After viewing the MBT chart : all-Log - I added MBT above

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  • 1 month later...

Top Frontier Investment Holdings- is a Big One, and an odd one...

TFHI owns 66% of San Miguel Corp. + 100% of a Mining entity, Clariden Holdings.

TFHI vs. SMC, psei ... YTD: from Jan'19: Jan'16: / Last: 129.4  / 100.2 : 129.1%

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TFHI (332.9 M shs.) owns 1,573M shs of SMC.: Each TFIH, is backed by 4.72 SMC shares

SMC has 2378.4m shares OS, & Php 139.8 BkV : 1,573M shs is 66.1%

TFHI / Top Frontier ... All: 10yr: 5yr: 2yr: 1yr: 6mo: 10d / Last: 129.4  / 100.2 : 129.1%

xx

TFHI vs. SMC, psei ... All: 10yr: 5yr: 2yr: 1yr: 6mo: 10d / Last: 129.4  /100.2 = Ratio:129.1%

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TFHI-Smc: 2010 : YTD: from Jan'19: Jan'16: / Last: 129.4  / 100.2 : 129.1%

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==

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  • 3 weeks later...

TFHI vs. SMC, psei ... All: 10yr: 5yr: 2yr: 1yr: 6mo/

From 1/2016: Jan.2019: 9/2019: 10d / Last: 125.0  /100.0 = Ratio:125.0%

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9/2019: w/PSEI: 10d / Last: 125.0  /100.0 = Ratio:125.0%

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===

TFHI/ Top Frontier Hldgs: 125.0: PER: 12.5 / Yield: 0.00% : BkVal.: 487.97, 25.6% BV / vs: PSEI : 2.02% of 6,193

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SMC/ San Miguel Corp ... update: 100.0: PER: 32.7 / Yield: 1.40% : BkVal.: 139.77, 71.5% BV (1,61% of 6,193)

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TFHI-etc-2019... update /

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  • 2 weeks later...

AGI has drifted back down towards its LOW for the year (P 5.30)

AGI-etc: GTcap, MEG, PSEI ... update / Last: P5.98, P453 (75.8x), P3.16 (52.8%), 6,098 (1020x)

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  • 1 month later...

ARE OLIGARCHS &their Holding Co's Winning?

The oligarchs have their so-called holding companies which are listed in the stock exchange.  Listing in the stock exchange means the oligarchs have access to free money (yes, free money because selling your shares to the public is like borrowing other people’s money with zero interest).  Plus you enjoy tax perks (like exemption from crippling inheritance tax when transferring wealth via the stock market).

As of today, these are the country’s top billionaires: 1) Lance Y. Gokongwei $5.68 billion; 2) Manny B. Villar Jr. $4.248 billion; 3) Iñigo Zobel $3.82 billion; 4) Enrique Razon Jr. $3.48 billion; 5) Erramon Aboitiz $3.34 billion; 6) Lucio Tan $2.43 billion; 7) Ramon S. Ang $2.29 billion; 😎 Lucio Co $2.25 billion; 9) Tony Tan Caktiong $2.0 billion; 10) Herbert Sy $1.73 billion; 11) Harley Sy $1.53 billion; 12) Henry Sy Jr. $1.53 billion; 13) Teresita Sy Coson $1.497 billion; 14) Roberto V. Ongpin $1.397 billion; and 15) Hans Sy $1.33 billion.

As of today, the ten biggest family holding companies in terms of stock market value (or market cap) are:1)  SM Investments Corp. (owned by the family of the late Henry Sy Sr.), P1.023 trillion; 2) JG Summit Holdings, Inc. (owned by the family of the late John Gokongwei Jr.), P460.18 billion; 3) Ayala Corp. (owned by the families of Iñigo Zobel and Jaime Augusto Zobel de Ayala), P460.18 billion; 4) Aboitiz Equity Ventures (owned by the Aboitiz family of Cebu), P270.25 billion; 5) San Miguel Corp. (owned by Ramon S. Ang and Iñigo Zobel) P241.42 billion; 6) Metro Pacific Investments Corp. (owned by the Salim family of Indonesia), P105.35 billion; 7) LT Group, Inc. (Lucio Tan), P91.11 billion;  8/  GT Capital Holdings (the automotive and banking conglomerate of the late George SK Ty), P86.11 billion; 9) Filinvest Development Corp. (Gotianun family), P72.64 billion; 10) Alliance Global Group, Inc. (Andrew Tan), P60.3 billion; and 11) DMCI Holdings (Consunji family), P43.75 billion.

Compared with the end-December 2019 market cap, the Sy family’s SMIC has lost 18.5% of its market value; JG Summit is down by 20%; Ayala 6.5%; Aboitiz 6.8%; San Miguel 38%; MPIC 1.1%; LT Group 29.5%; GT Capital 29.5%; Filinvest 34.8%; Alliance Global 47%; and DMCI 39.5%.

If you think those declines in values are steep, consider the ordinary worker—he has lost his job, meaning he has lost 100% of his income. None of the oligarchs has been wiped out that dramatically.
It pays to be an oligarch.  And a dynasty.  You ride out the pandemic in great style, great wealth, great power.

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  • 4 months later...

As of today, the ten biggest family holding companies in terms of stock market value (or market cap) are:

1)  SM Investments Corp. (owned by the family of the late Henry Sy Sr.), P1.023 trillion;

2) JG Summit Holdings, Inc. (owned by the family of the late John Gokongwei Jr), P460.18 billion;

3) Ayala Corp. (owned by the families of Iñigo Zobel and Jaime Augusto Zobel de Ayala), P460.18 billion;

4) Aboitiz Equity Ventures (owned by the Aboitiz family of Cebu), P270.25 billion;

5) San Miguel Corp. (owned by Ramon S. Ang and Iñigo Zobel) P241.42 billion;

6) Metro Pacific Investments Corp. (by the Salim family of Indonesia), P105.35 billion;

7) LT Group, Inc. (Lucio Tan), P91.11 billion;

😎 GT Capital Holdings (the automotive and banking conglomerate of the late George SK Ty), P86.11 billion;

9) Filinvest Development Corp. (Gotianun family), P72.64 billion;

10) Alliance Global Group, Inc. (Andrew Tan), P60.3 billion; and

11) DMCI Holdings (Consunji family), P43.75 billion.

Compared with the end-December 2019 market cap,

the Sy family’s SMIC has lost 18.5 percent of its market value;

JG Summit down by 20 percent;

Ayala 6.5 percent;

Aboitiz 6.8 percent;

San Miguel 38 percent;

MPIC 1.1 percent;

LT Group 29.5 percent;

GT Capital 29.5 percent;

Filinvest 34.8 percent;

Alliance Global 47 percent; and

DMCI 39.5 percent.

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  • 1 year later...

UPDATE: Old chart (2nd Below) was posted when:  GtCap: 422.0 / MBT: 36.80 = Ratio: 11.47x (5.06.20)

Current.  : GtCap: 400.0 / MBT: 54.00 = Ratio: 7.40x (12.19.22)

Previous:  GtCap: 422.0 / MBT: 36.80 = Ratio: 11.47x (5.06.20), see chart#2 below

ps2nLdJ.gif

GTCap owns 37.2% of MBT = 1,673 MBT shs; each GTCAP sh is backed by 7.77 MBT shs.

Symbol: Price: BkVal.: %B.V.: Shares: MktCap.:  Divs. :
GTCap : P400. : P901.: 44.4%: 215.3M=  P86.1B: 0.0B :
MBT.    : 54.00 : 70.82: 76.2%: 4,497M= P243.B.
37.2%.  : 54.00  : ========  : 1,673M= P90.4B

GTCAP, Three largest shareholders.   : # shares:   Pct.
GRAND TITAN CAPITAL HOLDING' INC : 120.41M: 55.93%
PCD NOMINEE CORP.<FILIPINO>.         :  52.70M: 24.47%
PCD NOMINEE CORP.<NON-FILIPINO> :  19.17M :  8.90%
===== Top 3 shareholders.                  : 191.78M:  89.08%
===== Other shareholders                    :  23.50M: 10.92%
===== TOTAL shareholders                  : 215.28M: 100.0%

===

Old May'20: "EYEBALLING the charts... for GTCap / Metrobank"
+ I need to dig deeper, but I am probably most attracted to GTcap (5.2 PE)  at this stage
+ It's largest holding is: MBT / Metrobank which has a historical PE of 6.0 and a yield of 2.7%
+ Is GTcap "adrift" after the passing of the Founder, George Ty? No. Strong mgmt. team is in place
+ I Wish the yield on GTCap was higher than 0.66%, but at near 3%, MBT starts to look attractive
====
GTcap vs- MTB, MPI 2011: 5yr : from 1/2016: fr. 5.6.2018 : 1yr: 6mo: 10d/

: fr. 5.6.2018 : 2020: 1yr: 6mo: 10d/
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GTCAP NEWS

C08471: GT Capital press release - 1
"GT Capital January to September 2022 Consolidated Net Income Grows 72% to Php15.0 Billion"

GT Capital Holdings, Inc. (GT Capital/GTCAP) disclosed today that its consolidated net income grew by 72% to Php15.0 billion in the first nine months of 2022 from Php8.7 billion in the previous year. Core net income increased 41% to Php11.3 billion from Php8.1 billion during the same period. This strong growth was driven by net income contributions from Metropolitan Bank & Trust Company (Metrobank) at Php23.4 billion, Toyota Motor Philippines (TMP) at Php4.4 billion, and Federal Land, Inc. (Federal Land) at Php4.2 billion. GT Capital associate Metro Pacific Investments Corporation (Metro Pacific) also provided support with a 25% rise in core net income to Php11.8 billion.

"The recovery momentum of our businesses remained steady despite rising inflation, interest rates, and foreign exchange volatility. Strategic initiatives undertaken over the past years are now coming to fruition. Metrobank's strong balance sheet now benefits from loan growth, margin expansion, and lower provisions. Federal Land closed its partnership with Nomura Real Estate, while expanding its commercial retail space with the soft opening of MITSUKOSHI BGC this month. Toyota Motor Philippines even increased its market dominance despite the global supply chain challenges. Overall, we remain confident that our core businesses will remain resilient as we face the macroeconomic headwinds into the coming year," GT Capital President Carmelo Maria Luza Bautista said.

2/ C08471: GT Capital press release - 2
Metropolitan Bank & Trust Company (Metrobank) saw its net income rise by 45% year-on-year to Php23.4 billion in the nine months ending September 2022. Earnings in the third quarter alone surged by 77% year-on-year to Php7.8 billion. Net interest income was up by 10% to Php62.1 billion in the first nine months of 2022, with net interest margin further improving to 3.5%. Gross loans jumped by 12% year- on-year to Php1.4 trillion, driven by a 15% growth in corporate and commercial lending and a 22% increase in gross credit card receivables. Operating expenses stayed flat at Php44.5 billion, improving cost-to-income ratio to 54.5% from 59.0% in the same period last year. Non-performing loans (NPL) remain manageable at 2.1% of total loans, below the industry's 3.6% NPL ratio in August. Ample NPL cover of 172% enabled the Bank to trim down provisions by 43% during the period.

Overall, Metrobank's strong net income was propelled by the continued expansion of the Bank's lending portfolio, better margins, healthy fee income, stable operating costs, and lower provisions. "We improved our profitability by taking on opportunities as the economy reopened, while keeping our balance sheet strong and improving efficiency levels. Our position of strength and substantial reserves will enable us to continue supporting our customers as they navigate the impact of the global external headwinds," said Metrobank President Fabian S. Dee. "We will continue to focus on achieving a sustainable growth for the Bank beyond our 60th year," he added.

Toyota Motor Philippines (TMP) booked consolidated revenues of Php133.4 billion in the first nine months of 2022, a growth of 41% from the same period last year. Consolidated net income, on the other hand, was basically flat at Php4.4 billion. As with the rest of the industry, TMP's net income was tempered by the weakening of the Philippine Peso. New vehicle sales of 124,884 units from January to September, reflects a growth of 35% year-on-year, outpacing the market, which grew by only 22%. As a result, TMP maintained its market leadership with a 50.8% share.

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