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PHL Listed Holding Co's - Do they show cycles?

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PHL Listed Holding Co's - Do they show cycles?

Initial Fav is GTCap / MTB: 2020: 1yr: 6mo: Mar.2020: 10d/

At Lows: == : PER : Yield : =========: PER : Yield :
MTB-35.00 : 5.74: 2.86%/ Gtcap- 381 : 4.72: 0.73%

FWyCNzC.gif

I am also following:

Cosco Cap'l-vs.PGold: YTD-2020: 10d / 5.14.20:  P 5.11 : 46.50 / ratio: 11.0%

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Starting to look at these...

4 PHL Holding Co's ... 4-yr: fr. 5.1.2016 : 2yr: 1yr: 10d /

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On Two Year chart, SM is "the clear winner" : 2yr: fr.5.6.2018: w/PSEI: 1yr: 10d /

AGI has been "the big bust" since last summer, and AC now looks like it "wants to rejoin the winner's circle"

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4 Big PHL Holding Co’s ... DATA - at 5..6.2020

Sym. : Stock ----- : 5.6.20: PE-R: Earns. Yield: Divid. YrHigh: %offH
AC — : Ayala Corp : P639.: R11.9: P53.7: 1.30%: P8.3 : 990.5 : -35.5%
AGI -  : Alliance Gl.: P607.: R3.77: P161.: 0.00%: zero : 16.20 : -62.6%
GTcap: GT Capital : P422.: R5.23: P80.7: 0.66%: P2.8 : 972.0: -56.6%
SM — : SM Invest. : P832.: R22.5: P37.0: 1.10%: P9.2 : 1100.: -24.4%
DMY  : Dummy Co.: 00.00: 00.00: P0.00: 0.00%: zero : 00.00: -00.0%
=====

I am SURPRISED to see:
+ the wide differences  in PE ratios. SM is 6x the PER of AGI
+ the low dividend yields of all of them, average is well below PSEI
+ All 4 are well off their peak prices.  Valuations at peaks seem crazy in hindsight

Websites: Ayala Corp.: Alliance Global: GT Capital: SM Investment:

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EYEBALLING the charts... for GTCap / Metrobank
+ I need to dig deeper, but I am probably most attracted to GTcap (5.2 PE)  at this stage
+ It's largest holding is: MBT / Metrobank which has a historical PE of 6.0 and a yield of 2.7%
+ Is GTcap "adrift" after the passing of the Founder, George Ty? No. Strong mgmt. team is in place
+ I Wish the yield on GTCap was higher than 0.66%, but at near 3%, MBT starts to look attractive
====
GTcap vs- MTB, MPI 2011: 5yr : from 1/2016: fr. 5.6.2018 : 1yr: 6mo: 10d/

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: fr. 5.6.2018 : 2020: 1yr: 6mo: 10d/
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: 2020: 1yr: 6mo: Mar.2020: 10d/

At Lows: == : PER : Yield : =========: PER : Yield :
MTB-35.00 : 5.74: 2.86%/ Gtcap- 381 : 4.72: 0.73%

FWyCNzC.gif

Sym. : Stock -----: 5.6.20: PE-R: Earns. Yield: Divid. YrHigh: %offH
GTcap GT Capital : P422.: R5.23: P80.7: 0.66%: P2.8 : 972.0: -56.6%
BT --  : Metrobank : P36.8: R6.03: P6.10: 2.72%: P1.0 : 70.04: -47.5%
MPI - : MetroPacif: P2.78: R3.68: P0.76: 3.97%: 0.11 : P5.78: -51.9%
=====

GT Capital (PSE:GTCAP) is a major listed Philippine conglomerate involved in banking through Metrobank,

automotive through Toyota, property through Federal Land ...

PRESENTATION: Mar.2020:

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COSCO Capital Suggestion - from A.Q. on a viber chat

Another seemingly undervalued  stock is Cosco,
Parent of Puregold (owns 48.6%), which in turn owns SnR and 70% of Lawsons-PH
Among the resilient sectors even post-ecq

(source pse edge)
stock price 4.92.  Book value 14.78 (33% Book)
9-mo 2019 = core eps 0.57   or 1.63 with one- time sale of Liquigaz.
FY 2019 EPS estimate 0.80 core or 1.86 with liquigaz(Q4 usually a strong quarter)
Dividend 0.12
2 B budget for buyback / 1.4B used

What seems to be holding back this issue when Pgold is near 52-week high???

====
Cosco, PGold ... 10yr: 5yr: from 2018 peak: ytd: 10d / 5.14.20:  P 5.11 : 46.50 / ratio: 11.0%
ZXuh0gY.gif

Cosco-vs.PGold: YTD-2020: 10d / 5.14.20:  P 5.11 : 46.50 / ratio: 11.0%

gPC95wt.gif

Sym. : Stock ---- : 5.14.20: PE-R: Earns. Yield: Divid. YrHigh: %offH
Cosco: Cosco Cap: P5.11 : R2.76: P1.85: 2.35%: 12.0 : P7.30: -30.0%
PGold: Pure Gold.  : 46.50 : R20.4: P0.00: 0.86%: zero : 50.00: - 7.0%
==== : Compare :
GTcap: GT Capital : P404.: R5.00: P80.8: 0.69%: P2.8 : 972.0: -58.6%
MBT -: Metrobank : P36.0: R5.90: P6.10: 2.78%:  P1.0 : 70.04: -48.6%
=====

Cosco Capital, Inc. (COSCO) – through its majority stake in Puregold Price Club Inc., one of the top and most recognized brands in Philippine retail, and its acquisition of S&R Membership Shopping – is able to fully serve the needs of Filipino consumers from all income brackets. COSCO claims that the diversity of its businesses and its formidable management team gives the Company a necessary edge to lead and succeed in these fields: Retail, Real Estate, Liquor Distribution and Oil and Mineral Exploration.

> source: https://www.pinoyinvestor.com/smartinvestor/cosco-capital-inc-cosco-2/

Cosco "All aspects" chart ... update /

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Cosco Capital Incorporated, formerly Alcorn Gold Resources Corporation, is an investment holding company. The Company has a portfolio of business interests in its business segments, including grocery retail, real estate and property leasing, liquor distribution, oil and mining, and specialty retail. The grocery retail segment offers imported and local groceries, and other consumer products, such as canned goods, housewares, toiletries, dry goods, and food and non-food products. The liquor distribution segment offers a portfolio of imported alcoholic beverages, including brandy, rum, whisky, tequila, wines and specialty non-alcoholic beverages. Through the oil and mining segment, it sells hydrocarbon. The specialty retail segment, through Office warehouse, sells school and office supplies, technology items, home/office furniture, and equipment and related products. // sold?: The specialty retail segment, through Liquigaz, imports and distributes liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). //

> https://www.reuters.com/companies/COSCO.PS

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Largest Php Volume (by far) today was...

10d :
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6mo
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==

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Still headed towards a Buy Window...?

GTcap, MBT ... 10yr: 5yr: from 2018 peak: 10d / Last: 404. -16 : 36.00, -0.20 / ratio: 11.22

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: 10d /

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UPDATING some metrics

Stock: Year : Revs. : E.P.Sh : Divs: %Ern. CF/sh: shsOS/ LTD.OS: ShEqy: NW/sh: YrEnd %-NW
SMC- : 2018: 1,024.B P6.63: P1.40: 21.1% 31.0 /2.379B/ 801.6B: 337.7B: 142.0: 147.0: 103.%
SM. -  : 2019: 506.3B 37.00: P9.12: 24.6% 53.1 /1.205B/ 404.3B: 382.6B: 317.6: 1,043: 328.%
SMPH: 2019: 120.1B P1.32: 0.350: 26.5% 1.69 /28.87B/ 130.1B: 300.9B: 10.42: 42.10: 404.%
SHNG: 2018: 12.65B: P0.63: 0.196: 31.1% 0.51 /4.764B/ 10.19B: 32.78B: P6.88: P3.25: 47.2%
ALI -   : 2019: 168.8B: P2.25: 0.520: 23.1% 2.87 /14.72B/ 228.6B: 211.1B: 14.34: 45.50: 317.%
AC  -   : 2019: 330.9B: 102.9: P8.30: 8.07% 86.0 / 627.M/ 427.7B: 328.8B: 524.7: 785.5: 150.%
AGI -   : 2018: 156,8B P1.51 : 0.100: 6.62% 2.19 /10.04B/ 192.5B: 172.2B: 17.16: 11.90: 69.3% :
GtCap: 2019: 226.8B 73.88: P3.00: 4.06% 106. / 215.M/ 124,3B: 177.8B: 824.4: 847.0: 97.3% :
Cosco: 2018: 00.00B P0.76: 0.000: 00.0% 0.00/ 7.27 B/ 00.00B: 58.65B: P8.21: P6.71: 00.0% :
Stock: Year : Revs. : E.P.Sh : Divs: %Ern. CF/sh: shsOS/ LTD.OS: ShEqy: NW/sh: YrEnd %-NW

USING Wed. 05/21 closing prices - Valuations look very different

Stock: Year : Revs. : E.P.Sh : Divs: %EPS CF/sh: shsOS/ LTD.OS: ShEqy: NW/sh: 02/21 : %NW: yield
SMC- : 2018: 1,024.B P6.63: P1.40: 21.1% 31.0 /2.379B/ 801.6B: 337.7B: 142.0: P95.95: 67.6%: 1.46%
SM. -  : 2019: 506.3B 37.00: P9.12: 24.6% 53.1 /1.205B/ 404.3B: 382.6B: 317.6: P 835.: 263.%: 1.09%
SMPH: 2019: 120.1B P1.32: 0.350: 26.5% 1.69 /28.87B/ 130.1B: 300.9B: 10.42: 28.95: 278.%: 1.21%
SHNG: 2018: 12.65B: P0.63: 0.196: 31.1% 0.51 /4.764B/ 10.19B: 32.78B: P6.88: P2.66: 38.7%: 6.86%
ALI -   : 2019: 168.8B: P2.25: 0.520: 23.1% 2.87 /14.72B/ 228.6B: 211.1B: 14.34: 32.05: 224.%: 1.65%
AC  -   : 2019: 330.9B: 102.9: P8.30: 8.07% 86.0 / 627.M/ 427.7B: 328.8B: 524.7: 684.5: 130.%: 1.21%
AGI -   : 2018: 156,8B P1.51 : 0.100: 6.62% 2.19 /10.04B/ 192.5B: 172.2B: 17.16: P6.14: 35.8%: -N/A-
GtCap: 2019: 226.8B 73.88: P3.00: 4.06%  106. / 215.M/ 124,3B: 177.8B: 824.4: 367.6: 44.6% : 0.76%
MBT - : 2019: 146.1B P6.24: P1.00: 16.0%  106. / 4.50 B/ 1,714B: 309.6B: 68.83: 34.00: 49.4% : 2.94%
Cosco: 2018: 00.00B P0.76: 0.000: 00.0% 0.00 / 7.27 B/ 00.00B: 58.65B: P8.21: P5.04: 00.0% : 2.38%
Stock: Year : Revs. : E.P.Sh : Divs: %EPS CF/sh: shsOS/ LTD.OS: ShEqy: NW/sh: 02/21 : %NW: yield

After viewing the MBT chart : all-Log - I added MBT above

hxk3hC4.gif

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Top Frontier Investment Holdings- is a Big One, and an odd one...

TFHI owns 66% of San Miguel Corp. + 100% of a Mining entity, Clariden Holdings.

TFHI vs. SMC, psei ... YTD: from Jan'19: Jan'16: / Last: 129.4  / 100.2 : 129.1%

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TFHI (332.9 M shs.) owns 1,573M shs of SMC.: Each TFIH, is backed by 4.72 SMC shares

SMC has 2378.4m shares OS, & Php 139.8 BkV : 1,573M shs is 66.1%

TFHI / Top Frontier ... All: 10yr: 5yr: 2yr: 1yr: 6mo: 10d / Last: 129.4  / 100.2 : 129.1%

xx

TFHI vs. SMC, psei ... All: 10yr: 5yr: 2yr: 1yr: 6mo: 10d / Last: 129.4  /100.2 = Ratio:129.1%

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TFHI-Smc: 2010 : YTD: from Jan'19: Jan'16: / Last: 129.4  / 100.2 : 129.1%

z2HJA8E.gif

==

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TFHI vs. SMC, psei ... All: 10yr: 5yr: 2yr: 1yr: 6mo/

From 1/2016: Jan.2019: 9/2019: 10d / Last: 125.0  /100.0 = Ratio:125.0%

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9/2019: w/PSEI: 10d / Last: 125.0  /100.0 = Ratio:125.0%

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===

TFHI/ Top Frontier Hldgs: 125.0: PER: 12.5 / Yield: 0.00% : BkVal.: 487.97, 25.6% BV / vs: PSEI : 2.02% of 6,193

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SMC/ San Miguel Corp ... update: 100.0: PER: 32.7 / Yield: 1.40% : BkVal.: 139.77, 71.5% BV (1,61% of 6,193)

YZsHbRP.gif

TFHI-etc-2019... update /

JlK7eTW.gif

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AGI has drifted back down towards its LOW for the year (P 5.30)

AGI-etc: GTcap, MEG, PSEI ... update / Last: P5.98, P453 (75.8x), P3.16 (52.8%), 6,098 (1020x)

TyQCu8l.gif

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ARE OLIGARCHS &their Holding Co's Winning?

The oligarchs have their so-called holding companies which are listed in the stock exchange.  Listing in the stock exchange means the oligarchs have access to free money (yes, free money because selling your shares to the public is like borrowing other people’s money with zero interest).  Plus you enjoy tax perks (like exemption from crippling inheritance tax when transferring wealth via the stock market).

As of today, these are the country’s top billionaires: 1) Lance Y. Gokongwei $5.68 billion; 2) Manny B. Villar Jr. $4.248 billion; 3) Iñigo Zobel $3.82 billion; 4) Enrique Razon Jr. $3.48 billion; 5) Erramon Aboitiz $3.34 billion; 6) Lucio Tan $2.43 billion; 7) Ramon S. Ang $2.29 billion; 😎 Lucio Co $2.25 billion; 9) Tony Tan Caktiong $2.0 billion; 10) Herbert Sy $1.73 billion; 11) Harley Sy $1.53 billion; 12) Henry Sy Jr. $1.53 billion; 13) Teresita Sy Coson $1.497 billion; 14) Roberto V. Ongpin $1.397 billion; and 15) Hans Sy $1.33 billion.

As of today, the ten biggest family holding companies in terms of stock market value (or market cap) are:1)  SM Investments Corp. (owned by the family of the late Henry Sy Sr.), P1.023 trillion; 2) JG Summit Holdings, Inc. (owned by the family of the late John Gokongwei Jr.), P460.18 billion; 3) Ayala Corp. (owned by the families of Iñigo Zobel and Jaime Augusto Zobel de Ayala), P460.18 billion; 4) Aboitiz Equity Ventures (owned by the Aboitiz family of Cebu), P270.25 billion; 5) San Miguel Corp. (owned by Ramon S. Ang and Iñigo Zobel) P241.42 billion; 6) Metro Pacific Investments Corp. (owned by the Salim family of Indonesia), P105.35 billion; 7) LT Group, Inc. (Lucio Tan), P91.11 billion; 😎 GT Capital Holdings (the automotive and banking conglomerate of the late George SK Ty), P86.11 billion; 9) Filinvest Development Corp. (Gotianun family), P72.64 billion; 10) Alliance Global Group, Inc. (Andrew Tan), P60.3 billion; and 11) DMCI Holdings (Consunji family), P43.75 billion.

Compared with the end-December 2019 market cap, the Sy family’s SMIC has lost 18.5% of its market value; JG Summit is down by 20%; Ayala 6.5%; Aboitiz 6.8%; San Miguel 38%; MPIC 1.1%; LT Group 29.5%; GT Capital 29.5%; Filinvest 34.8%; Alliance Global 47%; and DMCI 39.5%.

If you think those declines in values are steep, consider the ordinary worker—he has lost his job, meaning he has lost 100% of his income. None of the oligarchs has been wiped out that dramatically.
It pays to be an oligarch.  And a dynasty.  You ride out the pandemic in great style, great wealth, great power.

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As of today, the ten biggest family holding companies in terms of stock market value (or market cap) are:

1)  SM Investments Corp. (owned by the family of the late Henry Sy Sr.), P1.023 trillion;

2) JG Summit Holdings, Inc. (owned by the family of the late John Gokongwei Jr), P460.18 billion;

3) Ayala Corp. (owned by the families of Iñigo Zobel and Jaime Augusto Zobel de Ayala), P460.18 billion;

4) Aboitiz Equity Ventures (owned by the Aboitiz family of Cebu), P270.25 billion;

5) San Miguel Corp. (owned by Ramon S. Ang and Iñigo Zobel) P241.42 billion;

6) Metro Pacific Investments Corp. (by the Salim family of Indonesia), P105.35 billion;

7) LT Group, Inc. (Lucio Tan), P91.11 billion;

😎 GT Capital Holdings (the automotive and banking conglomerate of the late George SK Ty), P86.11 billion;

9) Filinvest Development Corp. (Gotianun family), P72.64 billion;

10) Alliance Global Group, Inc. (Andrew Tan), P60.3 billion; and

11) DMCI Holdings (Consunji family), P43.75 billion.

Compared with the end-December 2019 market cap,

the Sy family’s SMIC has lost 18.5 percent of its market value;

JG Summit down by 20 percent;

Ayala 6.5 percent;

Aboitiz 6.8 percent;

San Miguel 38 percent;

MPIC 1.1 percent;

LT Group 29.5 percent;

GT Capital 29.5 percent;

Filinvest 34.8 percent;

Alliance Global 47 percent; and

DMCI 39.5 percent.

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