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PHL PAIRS Trading


drbubb

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PHL "PAIRS Trading"* ...

Monitoring two stocks with similar fundamentals, with the aim of owning the cheaper one, and maybe switching when it is favorable to do so

SCC/ Semirara vs DMC.. 10d: Ytd / SCC:10.30 / DMC:4.40= r2.34. (-17.9% under Ave):
ye'19: 22.00/6.61=r3.33, H: 23.90/8.41=r2.84, L: 8.30/3.10=r2.68 :ave.r-2.95

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Ytd : +PSEI // SCC:10.30 / DMC:4.40= r2.34.

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LPZ/ Lopez vs ABS .. 10d: Ytd / LPZ :2.58 / ABS:11.32= r22.8%. (- 8.4% under Ave):
ye'19: 3.71/15.80=r23.5%, H: 4.38/24.85=r17.6%, L: 2.23/6.66=r33.5% :ave.r-24.9%

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Ytd : +PSEI // LPZ :2.58 / ABS:11.32= r22.8%

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TFHI/ Top Frontier vs SMC .. 10d: Ytd / TFHI :124.0 / SMC:101.0= r122.8%. (- 13.8% under Ave):
ye'19: 214./164.=r130.5%, H: 230./174.=r132.2%, L: 117./72.5=r161.4% :ave.r-141.4%

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Ytd : +PSEI // TFHI :124.0 / SMC:101.0= r122.8%

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JFC/ Jollibee vs MCD/ McDonalds .. 10d: Ytd / JFC :172.5 / McD:214.7= r80.3% (- 21.1% under Ave):
ye'19: 216./198.2=r130.5%, H: 235./231.9=r101.3%, L: 91.1/124.2=r73.3% :ave.r-101.7%

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Ytd : +PSEI // JFC :172.5 / McD:214.7= r80.3%

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==

* Pairs trade

A pairs trade or pair trading is a market neutral trading strategy enabling traders to profit from virtually any market conditions: uptrend, downtrend, or sideways movement. This strategy is categorized as a statistical arbitrage and convergence trading strategy. Wikipedia

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I got these comments on a Viber chat:

+ Your posts are not ignored: (but sometimes) we are all left scratching our heads

+ Unbelievable trades

Some of the charts may look complicated, but if you look at them on a laptop, the will be easier to see, and the cross market idea of laying charts on top of each other is a really powerful way of sizing up historical discrepancies in prices

The JFC versus MCD trade,...

I targeted about 3-4 weeks ago.  And it was one were it was possible to go long the JFC side in PHL, and short MCD by buying US-traded puts, and that would be a more conventional pairs trade:  Going Long the cheap side, and Short the expensive side.

After the 25% move in just 10 days, I would recommend some profit-taking, by maybe closing 1/3 to 1/2 the position

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  • 2 years later...

SAN MIGUEL vs. TFHI, TLT

From Feb.2020: +FB+Gsmi: 5yr: 2yr: 1yr: 10d

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Stock:  Price : BkVal.  Pr/BV: PER : Yield : L-Range-H :
SMC : P95.00: 137.3 : 69.2%: N/A : 1.47%: 92.10- 112.5
TFHI : P95.25: 484.7: 19.7 %: N/A : 0.00%: 92.00-125.9
FB.   : P47.00:  15.81 : 297.%: 13.4: 3.96%: 34.10- 70.20
GSMI: 115.00:  41.03: 280.%: 7.49: 4.78%: 96.00- 119.0
====

 

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  • 4 months later...

Fierce rise in PLC (& PLUS), leaves BEL behind

PLC vs. BEL... since 2020: Oct.22: 10d/. PLC: 0.56, BEL: 1.16

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we saw it coming... Oct.22:

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PLUS also had a surge ... to: new High of 3.69: FLIP /. Yr.Range: 1.28 to 3.69

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===

 

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APX vs PX ... from Nov'22w/BC : apx-2.60 -0.15,  px-2.65, bc-4.45

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  • 11 months later...
  • 1 month later...
  • 2 weeks later...

PAIRS Trading, Ayala Group > BUY AC ( <P600, July 2024)

AC (P568), psei-6493, 11.4x vs.: ALI (29.25, 5.15%), AReit (34.85, 6.14%) 

AC (P568), psei-6493, 11.4x vs.: ALI (29.25, 5.15%), AReit (34.85, 6.14%) on 7.05.24 < AC is relatively cheap!

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AC (P568), psei-6493, 11.4x

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==== : AC :  PSEI , Mult.:  ALI,    x% :  Areit,  x% : 
ye’20: 827:  7,140, 8.63x: 40.9, 4.9%. 29.4, 3.6% 
midYr: 800: 6902, 8.63x: 36.1 , 4.5%. 36.4, 4.6% 
ye’21:  871: 7335,  8.42x: 35.7,  4.1%.  49.0, 5.6% 
midYr: 600: 6155, 10.3x:  25.5,  4.3%. 34.9, 5.8% 
ye’22: 695: 6566, 9.45x: 30.8,  4.4%. 35.4, 5.1% 
midYr: 626: 6468, 10.3x: 24.3,  3.9%. 34.7, 5.5% 
ye’23: 705: 6519,  9.25x: 34.4, 4.9%. 33.3, 4.7% 
midYr: 582: 6412,  11.0x: 28.5, 4.9%. 34.5, 5.9% 
Aver.: 714:  6677,  9.52x 32.0 4.49, 35.96 5.1% Aver 
Jul05: 568: 6493, 11.4x : 29.3, 5.2%: 34.9, 6.1% < AC is cheap!

Seasonal
YrEnd  775: 6890, 8.94x: 35.45 4.58, 36.78 4.75 yrE
MidYr  714: 6677,  9.52x: 32.03 4.49, 35.96 5.10 Ave 
my/yE 84% 93.8%  ===    81%   ===   96% ===

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  • 4 months later...
  • 2 weeks later...

PSEI (6,614) from Beg.2000 (2,143) : +208%.

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High Points, Low Points

Date: Yr     PSEI :  SPY :  GLD :  Gold :  PHP : PhAu:  Ps/oz.: Pct.  : TNX    >>>  
2015 yrE  6,952: 203.9: 101.5:  1,060: 47.23 50.59k 0.138: 91.4%: 2.27% 10.44  
04.10.15H 8,127:  210.0: 116.0:   1,210: 44.55 53.90k 0.151: 100%:  1.95% 10.43  
01.29.18H 9,059: 284.7: 127.4:  1,355:  51.41 69.66k 0.130 86.1%:  2.70% 10.64  
10.07.24H  7,555: 567.8: 244.2: 2,643: 56.81 150.1k  0.050 33.3%  4.03% 10.82  
03.19.20L  4,623 240.5: 138.0:  1.477: 51.57  76.17k  0.061 40.2%  1.12%  10.70  
06.21.24L  6,158: 5445: 214.8:  2,321: 58.87 136.6k  0.045 29.8% 4.26% 10.80  
11.29.24:   6,614: 602.6: 245.6: 2,681: 58.64 157.2k: 0.042 27.8%  4.18% 10.92  
====

%

Versus FTSE - PSEI gives up the price advantage, it gained in 2012

PSEI (6,614) / FTSE (8,287): Gap +1673/ = 79.8%:

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Year Ends

=== :   PSEI  : FTSE  = Pt.gap:  Pct. :  SPY :  GLD :  Gold :  PHP : PhAu: Ps/oz.: Au/gld  
1999:  2,143: 6,930 = +4787: 30.9%: 146.9: 29.0e: 290.3: 37.17: 10.79k: 0.173.
2000: 1,495: 6,222 = +4727: 24.0%: 131.2:   ???  :  272.7: 49.90 13.61k: 0.182 
2005: 2,096: 5,619 = +3523: 37.3%: 124.5: 51.58:  513.0: 53.61 27.50k  0.076 
2009: 3,053:  ????  = + ????:   ???   :  ???   :   ??? : 1,088: 46.42 50.58k 0.060 
2010: 4,201 : 5,900 = +1699: 71.2%: 125.8:  138.7: 1,406: 43.95 61.77k 0.068 
2011: 4,337 : 5,572 = +1235:  77.8%: 125.5: 152.0:  1,531: 43.65 66.83k 0.065 
2012: 5,813 : 5,898 = +   85:  98.6%: 142.4: 162.0: 1,658: 41.01  67.97k 0.086 
2013: 5,890: 6,749 = + 859:  87.3%:  184.7:  116.1:  1,205: 44.10  53.12k  0.111 
2014: 7,230: 6,566 =  - 664: 110.0%: 205.5: 113.6: 1,206: 44.69 53.90k 0.134 
2015: 6,952: 6,242 =  -  710: 111.4%: 203.9: 101.5:  1,069: 47.23 50.59k 0.138 
2016: 6,841 : 7,143 =   - 302: 95.8%:  223.5: 109.6: 1,146: 49.82 57.09k 0.120 
2017: 8,558 : 7,688 =  - 870: 111.3%:  266.9: 123.7: 1,291: 52.11  77.40k: 0.101  > 10.44 
2018: 7,466 : 6,728 =  - 738:  111.0%: 249.9: 121.3: 1,279: 52.77 67.49k: 0.111  > 10.54 
2019: 7,815 :  7,542 =  -1355: 103.6% 321.9: 142.9: 1,523 50.72  77.25k: 0.101  > 10.66 
2020: 7,140 : 6,460 =  - 680: 110.5%  373.9: 178.4  1,895 48.01  90.98k 0.078 > 10.62 
2021:  7,335 : 7,385 =  +  50:  99.3%: 475.0: 171.0:  1,829 51.00  93.28k 0.079 > 10.70 
2022: 6,566 : 7,452 =  +886: 88.1%:  382.4: 169.6: 1,824 55.68  101.6k: 0.065 > 10.75 
2023: 6,450 : 7,733 = +1283: 83.4%: 475.3: 191.2: 2,063 55.40 114.3k: 0.056  > 10.79 
11’24: 6,614 : 8,287 = +1673: 79.8%: 602.6: 245.6: 2,681: 58.64 157.2k: 0.042 > 10.94 
vs.’00: : 
=== :  PSEI  : FTSE  =  Pt.gap:  Pct. :  SPY :  GLD :  Gold :  PHP : PhAu: Ps/oz.:

PSEI-to-FTSE   RATIO: 11’.29'2024 : 6,614 : 8,287 = +1673: 79.8%

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===

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