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PHL PAIRS Trading


drbubb

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PHL "PAIRS Trading"* ...

Monitoring two stocks with similar fundamentals, with the aim of owning the cheaper one, and maybe switching when it is favorable to do so

SCC/ Semirara vs DMC.. 10d: Ytd / SCC:10.30 / DMC:4.40= r2.34. (-17.9% under Ave):
ye'19: 22.00/6.61=r3.33, H: 23.90/8.41=r2.84, L: 8.30/3.10=r2.68 :ave.r-2.95

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Ytd : +PSEI // SCC:10.30 / DMC:4.40= r2.34.

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LPZ/ Lopez vs ABS .. 10d: Ytd / LPZ :2.58 / ABS:11.32= r22.8%. (- 8.4% under Ave):
ye'19: 3.71/15.80=r23.5%, H: 4.38/24.85=r17.6%, L: 2.23/6.66=r33.5% :ave.r-24.9%

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Ytd : +PSEI // LPZ :2.58 / ABS:11.32= r22.8%

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TFHI/ Top Frontier vs SMC .. 10d: Ytd / TFHI :124.0 / SMC:101.0= r122.8%. (- 13.8% under Ave):
ye'19: 214./164.=r130.5%, H: 230./174.=r132.2%, L: 117./72.5=r161.4% :ave.r-141.4%

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Ytd : +PSEI // TFHI :124.0 / SMC:101.0= r122.8%

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JFC/ Jollibee vs MCD/ McDonalds .. 10d: Ytd / JFC :172.5 / McD:214.7= r80.3% (- 21.1% under Ave):
ye'19: 216./198.2=r130.5%, H: 235./231.9=r101.3%, L: 91.1/124.2=r73.3% :ave.r-101.7%

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Ytd : +PSEI // JFC :172.5 / McD:214.7= r80.3%

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==

* Pairs trade

A pairs trade or pair trading is a market neutral trading strategy enabling traders to profit from virtually any market conditions: uptrend, downtrend, or sideways movement. This strategy is categorized as a statistical arbitrage and convergence trading strategy. Wikipedia

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I got these comments on a Viber chat:

+ Your posts are not ignored: (but sometimes) we are all left scratching our heads

+ Unbelievable trades

Some of the charts may look complicated, but if you look at them on a laptop, the will be easier to see, and the cross market idea of laying charts on top of each other is a really powerful way of sizing up historical discrepancies in prices

The JFC versus MCD trade,...

I targeted about 3-4 weeks ago.  And it was one were it was possible to go long the JFC side in PHL, and short MCD by buying US-traded puts, and that would be a more conventional pairs trade:  Going Long the cheap side, and Short the expensive side.

After the 25% move in just 10 days, I would recommend some profit-taking, by maybe closing 1/3 to 1/2 the position

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  • 2 years later...

SAN MIGUEL vs. TFHI, TLT

From Feb.2020: +FB+Gsmi: 5yr: 2yr: 1yr: 10d

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Stock:  Price : BkVal.  Pr/BV: PER : Yield : L-Range-H :
SMC : P95.00: 137.3 : 69.2%: N/A : 1.47%: 92.10- 112.5
TFHI : P95.25: 484.7: 19.7 %: N/A : 0.00%: 92.00-125.9
FB.   : P47.00:  15.81 : 297.%: 13.4: 3.96%: 34.10- 70.20
GSMI: 115.00:  41.03: 280.%: 7.49: 4.78%: 96.00- 119.0
====

 

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  • 4 months later...

Fierce rise in PLC (& PLUS), leaves BEL behind

PLC vs. BEL... since 2020: Oct.22: 10d/. PLC: 0.56, BEL: 1.16

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we saw it coming... Oct.22:

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PLUS also had a surge ... to: new High of 3.69: FLIP /. Yr.Range: 1.28 to 3.69

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===

 

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APX vs PX ... from Nov'22w/BC : apx-2.60 -0.15,  px-2.65, bc-4.45

ytWxcsn.gif

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  • 11 months later...
  • 1 month later...
  • 2 weeks later...

PAIRS Trading, Ayala Group > BUY AC

AC (P568), psei-6493, 11.4x vs.: ALI (29.25, 5.15%), AReit (34.85, 6.14%) < AC is relatively cheap now!

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==== : AC :  PSEI , Mult.:  ALI,    x% :  Areit,  x% : 
ye’20: 827:  7,140, 8.63x: 40.9, 4.9%. 29.4, 3.6% 
midYr: 800: 6902, 8.63x: 36.1 , 4.5%. 36.4, 4.6% 
ye’21:  871: 7335,  8.42x: 35.7,  4.1%.  49.0, 5.6% 
midYr: 600: 6155, 10.3x:  25.5,  4.3%. 34.9, 5.8% 
ye’22: 695: 6566, 9.45x: 30.8,  4.4%. 35.4, 5.1% 
midYr: 626: 6468, 10.3x: 24.3,  3.9%. 34.7, 5.5% 
ye’23: 705: 6519,  9.25x: 34.4, 4.9%. 33.3, 4.7% 
midYr: 582: 6412,  11.0x: 28.5, 4.9%. 34.5, 5.9% 
Aver.: 714:  6677,  9.52x 32.0 4.49, 35.96 5.1% Aver 
Jul05: 568: 6493, 11.4x : 29.3, 5.2%: 34.9, 6.1% < AC is cheap!

Seasonal
YrEnd  775: 6890, 8.94x: 35.45 4.58, 36.78 4.75 yrE
MidYr  714: 6677,  9.52x: 32.03 4.49, 35.96 5.10 Ave 
my/yE 84% 93.8%  ===    81%   ===   96% ===

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