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Major Gold Miners: GDX, GOLD, NEM vs UGL

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GOLD Barrick vs UGL .. update: fr.2020: $18.37 / $58.26, UGL: r-31.5%  / $31.09, GDX: r-00%, Yield: 1.96%, PER: 16.5


Ratio: $18.37 / $58.26, UGL: r-31.5%


Ratio: $18.37 / $31.09, GDX: r-59.1%



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A STRONG CHART argument for Gold

1. weaker USD / stronger EUR coming.  Now EUR is $1.134 ... update, and year ends often bring Turns


2. Gold is in uptrend


3. Gold, next four year cycle in 2024 could be brief


Kevin Wadsworth: Spiking PPI Correlates with Political and Social Instability


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"BIG 4" > Jan.2020: Jan.2018: 1yr: 10d:  1/25: C$5.45, Gold: $19.49, C$24.61, Rgld: $103.20, Mux:$0.93, C$1.20


GOLD vs UGL: 6mo: 3mo: from Oct.1, 2021:  $19.50 / $38.00 = r-50.0% at 1.25.2022



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  • 4 weeks later...

Barrick says its gold mines in Tanzania advancing to tier one status

Kitco News |

(Kitco News) - Barrick said today that its North Mara and Bulyanhulu mines in Tanzania delivered a combined production of more than 500,000 ounces of gold in 2021, meeting a key criterion for membership of the company’s elite Tier One portfolio.

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GOLD Testing important uptrend

GLD-etc... Update chart: 5yr: 3yr: 2yr: 1yr: from Jan.1, 2021 : GLD: $167.10 / TLT: $143.13, Ratio= 116.7% UDN: $19.895


RATIO: GLD: $167.10 / TLT: $143.13, R-116.7%, was just 107% near end of 2021. Surged to 122% in early 2022. Got ahead?



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GOLD -etc... Updatelonger: / $19.15 +0.59, +3.2%


Related "Drivers" :

TLT -etc... Updatelonger: / $142.39 - 0.74, - 0.52%


longer: / $142.39 - 0.74, - 0.52%


Ratio: GOLD to-TLT : $19.15 / $142.39 = r 13.45%


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TPRFF (GCM.t)/ Gold vs UGL 2yr: from Nov.2019: w/RGLD: YTD: 10d: $5.08/ $18.75= 27.1% /$57.90= 8.77%


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Barrick Gold: Great Q4 Production Results Leading To An Upward Revision On The Stock Price

Feb. 08, 2022 5:59 PM ETBarrick Gold Corporation (GOLD)


  • 4Q21 gold production grew 10% versus 3Q21.
  • I expect the Fed to hike to 2.25% by the end of 2023, which I thi

> https://seekingalpha.com/article/4485291-barrick-gold-q4-production-results-leading-upward-stock-price-revision

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Barrick Gold replenishes its gold reserves

Barrick Gold Corporation (GOLD:NYSE) (ABX:TSX) has replaced its gold reserves by 150%, before acquisition and equity changes at its South Arturo and Porgera. The firm also improved the quality of its group reserve grade by 3% in 2021.

The firm reported that at $1,200/oz, attributable proven and probable mineral reserves now stand at 69 million ounces at 1.71g/t, increasing from 68 million ounces at 1.66g/t in 2020.

President and chief executive Mark Bristow said in a sector feeling the pinch of dwindling reserves and resources, successful exploration continued to replenish the company's asset base and target pipeline, securing its business plans well into the future

> https://www.kitco.com/news/2022-02-10/Barrick-Gold-replenishes-its-gold-reserves.html

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GOLD, Nice Jump:



2022-02-16 03:00 U:GOLD News Release Barrick Delivers on Guidance, Opens New Exploration Frontiers
2022-02-16 02:59 U:GOLD News Release Barrick Announces Share Buyback Program
2022-02-16 02:58 U:GOLD News Release Barrick Declares Increased Dividend and Announces Performance Dividend Policy


Free cash flow from the operations remained robust and at the year's end, net cash stood at $130 million after the record cash distribution of $1.4 billion to shareholders. The fourth quarter dividend was increased by 11% to 10 cents per share. Under the Company's new dividend policy, a base dividend will in future be coupled to a performance dividend linked to the net cash on the balance sheet.1The Board also approved a share buyback program of up to $1 billion, given our belief that the shares are trading in a price range that does not reflect the value of the Company's mining and financial assets and future business prospects.

Speaking at the results presentation, president and chief executive Mark Bristow said three years after the Randgold merger, Barrick was clearly achieving its goal of industry-leading value creation and sustainable profitability.

"By any measure, Barrick is clearly the stand-out in its sector. We have what is undoubtedly the best asset base, with six Tier One11 mines, and more waiting in the wings. We have a long record of exploration success and a high-quality target pipeline. In an industry running out of raw material, we keep expanding our reserves. Our strong balance sheet will fund our investment in growth projects. All our mines have 10-year business plans, based not on wishful thinking but on geological understanding, engineering and commercial reality," he said.


The amount of the performance dividend on a quarterly basis will be based on the amount of net cash on Barrick's Consolidated Balance Sheet as per the following schedule:

Dividend Level
Threshold Level Quarterly
Base Dividend
Performance Dividend
Total Dividend
Level I Net cash less than $0 $0.10 per share $0.00 per share $0.10 per share
Level II Net cash greater than $0 and less than $0.5 billion $0.10 per share $0.05 per share $0.15 per share
Level III Net cash greater than $0.5 billion and less than $1 billion $0.10 per share $0.10 per share $0.20 per share
Level IV Net cash greater than $1 billion $0.10 per share $0.15 per share $0.25 per share

"Our strong operating performance and financial strength has allowed us to further increase our base quarterly dividend and provide our shareholders with guidance on additional performance dividends going forward," said senior executive vice-president and chief financial officer Graham Shuttleworth.

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IAG :     /  News: 02/15/2022

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Barrick broke out and may soon test Resistance near $24

GOLD / Barrick. ... update / Last; $23.14  -0.09,


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RATIO: GDX-to-SPY: $34.50 / 434 = 7.95%


Ratio: GDX-toSPY is above the Year End low, near 6.3%.  Last was 7.95%. 

It is Time for a Rally back to 13.77% or Higher maybe ??

GDX alone ... ALL: 10yr: 5yr: 2yr: 1yr: 10d / Last: $34.50, bouncing off 987d MA at just below $29.  YrL: $28.83


. ALL:


SPY alone ... ALL: 10yr: 5yr: 2yr: 1yr: 10d / Last: $434, down -9.6% from Year end high of $480


ALL:  Log scale



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Gold SWOT: Barrick Gold Corp.'s fourth-quarter earnings beat analysts' expectations


  • The best performing precious metal for the week was platinum, up 4.03%, perhaps on the prospects of supply disruptions from Russia. Barrick Gold Corp. exceeded its earnings estimates, raised dividends, and unveiled a share buyback program, writes Bloomberg. The Toronto-based miner capped a 10th straight quarterly earnings beat, increased its regular quarterly cash dividend by 11% and said its board authorized the repurchase of as much as $1 billion in common shares over the next 12 months.

  • Royal Gold reported fourth quarter adjusted EPS of $1.05 versus consensus of $0.91. Cash flow from operations came in at $119 million versus consensus of $108 million with adjusted EBITDA at $135 million versus consensus of $129 million. The beat versus consensus was on higher royalty revenues, which came in at $57.9 million, with total revenues in the quarter at $168.5 million.

  • Spot gold's 50-day moving average climbed above the 200-day moving average after forming a golden cross last week. Tensions over Russia's military buildup near Ukraine is buoying the yellow metal and palladium amid demand for havens and concerns over potential supply disruptions
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Kinross Ratio, fighting some bad news in Russia

KGC to-GDX - last: 15.6%

Top mining losers impacted by Russian sanctions

Mazumdar said Kinross Gold has operations in Siberia. The company's Kupol Mine contributed 511,000 Au eq. oz. in 2020, nearly a quarter the miner's total output.

"[Kinross] is only down 3%. That may be mitigated by their growth asset they acquired in Canada, Great Bear Resources," said Mazumdar.

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Kinross and Barrick

New York spot gold rose $20.40 to $1,909.40 on Monday. The TSX-V added 13.36 points to 849.57 while the TSX gold index retreated 2.11 points to 315.42. Most Canadian gold miners continued to trade erratically at first glance, although their motion is often related to their Russian involvement. Kinross Gold Corp. (K), $7.60 in mid-February, shed 71 cents to $6.32 on 26.46 million shares today as investors were reminded that nearly one-quarter of the company's production comes from Russia.

Not to worry, Kinross says: Its Kupol mine is 7,000 kilometres from Ukraine and is well stocked with supplies to last the year. (Kupol is in northern Siberia and faces logistical challenges that make supply in the Canadian Arctic seem a gentle summer breeze.) Of course, one huge problem that Canadians have never had to face is dealing with oligarchs and political strongmen.

Greg Lang's Novagold Resources Inc. (NG) lost 11 cents to $8.87 on 313,000 shares and Mark Bristow's Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX) dipped two cents to $28.65 on 10.74 million shares on word that they have drilled a 19-metre interval averaging 18.23 grams of gold per tonne at their 50:50 Donlin project in southwestern Alaska. Most of the gold came from a 14.31-metre stretch that averaged 23.49 grams per tonne; the other 4.69 metres averaged just 2.18 grams per tonne.

2 /

Kinross Gold Corp.'s operations in Russia are operating according to plan and currently remain unaffected by U.S. sanctions announced on Feb. 22, 2022.  Kinross has successfully operated in Russia for more than 25 years and has previously managed through similar situations while complying with applicable laws.

The company has diversified procurement and logistics structures in Russia, with the majority of its procurement coming from within the country. Approximately 98 per cent of the employees of Kinross's Russian subsidiaries are Russian locals, and given the ice road supply season, its operations have a full year of supplies on hand.

Kinross refines gold produced from its Russian mines in country and retains flexibility to sell its gold domestically and internationally. In 2022, Kinross expects approximately 13 per cent of its global production to come from Russia. Kinross operations are located in the Russian Far East and are approximately 7,000 kilometres away from Ukraine.

The company will continue to closely monitor sanction developments.

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KGC / Kinross Gold : since 2016:  Last: $5.19 +0.18


Ratio: KGC-to-GDX : Last: 14.5%, below channel bottom at about 18.0%


Ratio: KGC-to-UGL : Last: 7.7%, below channel bottom at about 8.5%


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KGC Bullboard comments

February 28, 2022 - 07:22 PM. 79 Reads / Post# 34469477

Down ~15%

Since the invasion of Ukraine, yet their Russian holdings amount to only ~10%.

smart money, ...not so smart ......panicking like a herd of cattle 
February 28, 2022 - 03:49 PM / 145 Reads / Post# 34468853

Russia Embassy

I am a shareholder of Great Bear and if you are reading this can you tell me if my new shares of Kinross are safe?  I heard that Kinross is trying to hide their gold.  Is it true?  Has it been confiscated?  Will it be?
Great Bear, , , Kinross? , . ? ? ?
February 28, 2022 - 02:54 PM / 119 Reads / Post# 34468655

RE:RE:I think just halt all russia growth spending

yeah i mean good luck geussing a bottom here .    russia operations are what  25% of production with needed capex to maintain that level but they just dumped $400 million into growth there plus  dumped all their cash into a  8 year   canadian project ... i mean yikes 

i would    only suggest nibbling here 

RE:I think just halt all russia growth spending


Kinross was supposed to take out v.FVL and v.AVG...now, it

looks like Kinross is going to be taken over by ABX!!!  rate and reply
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KGC is rising now with Gold & the news flow: 

5.765 +0.295 +5.4%



2022-03-07 17:00 U:KGC News Release Kinross announces US$1.0 billion term loan
2022-03-02 18:09 U:KGC News Release Kinross to suspend Russian operations
2022-02-24 08:30 U:KGC News Release Kinross completes acquisition of Great Bear Resources


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  • 2 weeks later...

Barrick says it set to deliver substantial future free cash flows
Kitco News | Mar 18
(Kitco News) - Barrick Gold is built on a foundation of six Tier One gold mines with rolling 10-year plans which secure the company’s ability to generate substantial free cash flows for the next decade and beyond, said executive chairman John Thornton.  

Writing in the company's 2021 annual report, published today, Thornton noted that in September 2018, when the Randgold merger was announced, Barrick had net debt in excess of $4 billion.

Since then, Barrick has not only moved into a net cash position but has returned $2.5 billion of cash to shareholders, including last year's record distribution of $1.4 billion, he added.

New Dividend policy :

Comprising a base dividend with an additional performance dividend linked to the net cash on the balance sheet, starting in 2022. We believe this will give our shareholders guidance on future dividend streams," he said.

"The board has also approved a $1 billion share buyback plan which will afford us the opportunity to acquire our shares when they are trading below what we consider to be their intrinsic value," added Thornton.

> https://www.kitco.com/news/2022-03-18/Barrick-says-it-set-to-deliver-substantial-future-free-cash-flows.html

/ 2 /

Barrick Gold hunts for high-quality assets around the world, CEO says
Kitco News | Mar 18
(Kitco News) - President and CEO of Barrick Gold Mark Bristow said today that the company is continuing to invest in its future through the development of capital projects that will expand and enhance an operating platform which already holds some of the industry's best assets.

Writing in the company's 2021 annual report, Bristow noted that, while building on this value foundation, Barrick was also expanding its presence into new prospective areas in its hunt for high-quality assets.

"A specialist Asia-Pacific team, set up to look at opportunities in that region, has acquired exploration permits in Japan and are hunting for additional opportunities in that region. We are also investigating projects across the Nubian and Arabian Shields in North Africa and the Middle East," he said.

Bristow added that Barrick has put a particularly strong focus on exploration in Latin America, where the company's teams are testing a portfolio of targets on the El Indio belt along the border between Argentina and Chile; Barrick also added ground in Peru and started fieldwork on new projects in Guyana and Suriname.

"We are working on a well-defined strategy to grow our business in Canada where I believe we are under-invested. A significant exploration portfolio has been secured in the country's Uchi Belt and the team is also looking at other opportunities in the country," he continued.

> https://www.kitco.com/news/2022-03-18/Barrick-Gold-hunts-for-high-quality-assets-around-the-world-CEO-says.html


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More good news for Barrick

Barrick Gold reaches agreement with Pakistan to restart gigantic Reko Diq copper-gold project

According to a press-release, the project, which was suspended in 2011 due to a dispute over the legality of its licensing process, hosts one of the world's largest undeveloped open pit copper-gold porphyry deposits.

The reconstituted project will be held 50% by Barrick and 50% by Pakistan stakeholders, comprising a 10% free-carried, non-contributing share held by the government of Balochistan, an additional 15% held by a special purpose company owned by the government of Balochistan and 25% owned by other federal state-owned enterprises.

In addition, a separate agreement provides for Barrick's partner Antofagasta PLC to be replaced in the project by the Pakistani parties.


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Neither GOLD nor GDX has kept up with NEM/ Newmont Gold

Barrick GOLD, etc ... update: w/RGLD, 10d/ $24.54 / GDX: $38.72 = 63.4%NEM: $78.95, is r-2.04x GDX


Ratio: GOLD to GDX: $24.54 / GDX: $38.72 = 63.4%, peak 68.9%


Ratio: NEM to GDX: $78.95 / GDX: $38.72 = r-2.04x


Ratio: RGLD to GDX: $140.33 / GDX: $38.72 = r-3.62x



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  • 2 weeks later...

KGC / Kinross Gold ... update: shorter / Last: $5.86 - 0.16


Kinross Gold is selling its Russian assets to the Russians. 

Kinross Gold Corporation (TSX:K; NYSE:KGC) ("Kinross") announced today that it has entered into a definitive agreement ("Agreement") with the Highland Gold Mining group of companies ("Highland Gold") and its affiliates to sell 100% of its Russian assets for total consideration of $680 million in cash.

As part of the transaction, Kinross will receive a total of $400 million in cash for the Kupol mine and the surrounding exploration licenses, which includes payment of $100 million upon closing, as well as additional payments of $150 million before the end of 2023, $100 million before the end of 2024, and $50 million before the end of 2025. Kinross will also receive a total of $280 million in cash for its Udinsk project, which includes payments of $80 million before the end of 2025, $100 million before the end of 2026, and $100 million before the end of 2027.  > https://www.stockwatch.com/News/Item/U-z8516585-U!KGC-20220405/U/KGC

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GDX vs SPY etcupdate: GDX: $38.28 / SPY:$451 = ratio 8.5%


UGL vs SPY etc.  update: AGQ-blue: UGL: $64.89 / SPY:$451 = ratio 14.4%


AGQ to SPY: AGQ: $36.72 / SPY:$451 = ratio 8.14%


AGQ (2x Silver) versus SPY ... update: AGQ-blue:


AGQ (2x Silver) came to a similar point in late June 2021, and then broke down.

But it is a different story now...  AGQ is trading "cheap relative to UGL" (2x Gold) and GDX... AGQ-blue:


RATIOS at June 30, 2021 versus now

Index  6.30.21: /AGQ : 4.5.22: /AGQ: R chg. > relative these int mid-2021, AGQ is undervalued by 27%
SPY  : 428.06: r9.28 : 446.52: 11.96 +28.9%
GDX : $33.98: 0.737 : $38.18: 1.022 +38.7%
UGL : $57.22 : 1.241 : $65.27: 1.748 +40.9%
AGQ : $46.12: 1.000 : $37.34: 1.000: =====
====  =====  ===== Ave. ratio Gain : +36.2% : 1.000 / 1.362 = 0.734 : - 26.5%


Silver to Gold ratio has traveled from:  12% > 8% > 16% > 12%... 

Now back to 16% soon?  If precious metals take off again


AGQ is better than GDX... No rise in OPEX risk - remember Oil is up a lot.  Wait until we see those Q1 results !

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