Long Term: Stocks vs Gold, and Gold shares.

[drbubb]

Long Term: Stocks vs Gold, and Gold shares.

Ratio of Stocks to Gold is back at 2003-4 Tech Bubble High levels

GDX might be a good place to hide in the early weeks (3-5 months?) of a coming stock market correction

GDX vs.SPY($453): r2.65x GLD: 171.06 ... 2005: w/XAU: 2006: 2010:  2016: 10d:: ...x19.5% GDX: $33.28, 7.34%

Ye'04x: SPY: 120.87: r2.77x GLD: $43.6e, x61.5%= GDX: $26.8e, 22.2% of SPY
Ye'08x:        : $90.24: r1.04x         : $86.52, x37.5%=          : $33.88, 37.5%
Ye'11:          : 125.50: 82.6%x.      : 151.99, x33.8%=          : $51.43, 41.0%
Ye'15x:        : 120.87: r2.01x         : 101.46, x13.5%=         : $13.72, 6.73%
Ye'20x:        : 124.51: r2.10x GLD : 178.36, x20.2%=         : $36.02, 9.63%

2006:

SPY to GLD Ratio, current levels above r-2.5x not seen since 2005 ! (see above, and ratio below)

The Long term chart, goes back to 2005 gives some idea how cheap Gold stocks are now, versus SPY.  They also look cheap on a Cash flow basis

GDX to SPY is at a low level as a Pct. of the Big Stock index

Ratio: GDX to SPY: "Normal range" seems to be 9%, +/- 2%.  Now just 7.35% (Alt. chart) : (Alt.#2)

GDX vs. SPY, GLD ... 2016:

The start point of the above chart, Jan.2015, was one of the Cheapest levels for GDX ($13.72), and it had a great rally during 2016.

On a RELATIVE basis, the ratio of GDX to SPY got even cheaper briefly about three years ago.  Note from that point.  GDX performed well in late 2018 when SPY slid.  Great relative performance for a few months.

Further back, also GDX performed well on SPY's first leg down in late 2007 into 2008...  

Was Good again in 2011, when stocks also dropped

Ye'11:  SPY : 125.50: 82.6%x  GLD: 151.99, x33.8%=  GDX: $51.43, 41.0%

Conclusion:  GDX might be a good place to hide in the early weeks of a coming stock market correction

Timing  : GDX :   GLD  :   SPY  : gd/S r: gd/G r: Spy/G/ - Gold -  :  XAU :  Gdx /
Ye2003: 29.4e: $41.6e: 111.28: 26.4%: 70.7%:  r2.68 / $416.25: 108.84 x27%
Ye2004: 26.8e: $43.6e: 120.87: 22.2%: 61.5%:  r2.77 / $435.60: $99.35 x27%
Ye2005: 34.5e: $51.58: 124.51: 27.7%: 66.9%:  r2.41 / $513.00: 128.03 x27%
Ye2006: 39.91: $63.21: 141.62: 28.2%: 63.1%:  r2.24 / $632.00: 142.25 x28.05%
Ye2007: 45.83: $82.46: 146.21: 31.3%: 55.6%:  r1.77 / $700.?? : 173.32 x26.44%
Ye2008: 33.88: $86.52: $90.24: 37.5%: 39.2%:  r1.04
Ye2009: 46.21: 107.31: 111.44: 41.5%: 43.1%:  r1.04
Ye2010: 61.47: 138.72: 125.75: 48.9%: 44.3%: 90.6%
Ye2011: 51.43: 151.99: 125.50: 41.0%: 33.8%: 82.6%
Ye2012: 46.39: 162.02: 142.42: 32.6%: 28.6%: 87.6%
Ye2013: 21.13: 116.12: 184.69: 10.3%: 18.2%: r1.59
Ye2014: 18.38: 113.58: 205.54: 8.94%: 16.2%: r1.81
Ye2015: 13.72: 101.46: 203.87: 6.73%: 13.5%: r2.01
Ye2016: 20.92: 109.61: 223.53: 9.36%: 19.1%: r2.04
Ye2017: 23.24: 123.65: 266.86: 8.71%: 18.8%: r2.15
Ye2018: 21.09: 121.25: 249.92: 8.44%: 17.4%: r2.06
Ye2019: 29.28: 142.90: 321.86: 9.09%: 20.5%: r2.25 /
Ye2020: 36.02: 178.36: 373.88: 9.63%: 20.2%: r2.10 / 1887.60: 144.19 x24.98%
Ye2021:
06.30. :  33.98: 165.63: 428.06: 7.94%: 20.5%:  r2.58
09.03. :  33.28: 171.06: 453.08: 7.34%: 19.5%;  r2.65
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[drbubb]

ZODIAC Cycle.    Looking Back to 2007

Clif High-2017 Predictions on Everything - inspired the following chart

UPDATED Zodiac Cycle: EEM-etc-2007:

===

Is there a LIMIT?: 250%??  update:  w/EEM:

" The odd thing, amazing thing is how all these different assets, when I put them on a single chart- showed almost exactly the same size RANGE over a long period of time.  When the chart came up, I was amazed and intrigued."

SPY's limit is shown there.  And now in the last few days its started sliding.   If pure coincidence, it is an amazing one

Hunter's Forecast from Sep. 2nd: - SEE BELOW

HUNTER: Ye2020: 9/02 >  Forecast,  %

SPX —     3,756 :   4,537 >  5,000, +10.2%    
DJIA —  30,606 : 35,444 > 40,000, +12.9%
Nasdaq 12,888 : 15,331 > 18,000,  +17.4%
Gold —     1,894 :   1,810 >   2,500, +38.1%
UGL.  —   68.20 :  59.33 >   $104. +75.3%*
GDX.  —    36.02 :  32.50 >  60.00, +84.6%
GDXJ —    54.24 :  42.62 >   $100., +135%
Silver —    26.37 :  24.00 >   50.00,  +108%
AGQ   —    51.28 :  37.75 > 110.00, +191%*
SIL     —    45.62 :  40.03 >   75.00,  +87.3%
SILJ   —      6.31 :  13.34 >   35.00,  +162.%
====
* My own forecast, based on Hunter’s%

Stocks PEAKING?  Or Set for "spikey" Breakout?

SPY etc ... update:  w/GDX: 10d:

SPY: $453.19, up 21.2% from YE-2020 ($373.88), vs: GLD/Gold ($178.36) > $169.25, -5.11%

Precious Metals & Gold shares have lagged...

update: 10d:  UGL-$59.33, -13% from 68.20, GLD-$169.25, -5.1%, 178.36, since Ye2020

AGQ etc... fr. 2016: AGQ: $39.98

Hunter's comments;

David Hunter@DaveHcontrarian

9h

I see a lot of skepticism toward this equity market rally & even more toward the the metals & miners.I remain very bullish of equities & metals & expect sharply higher prices directly from here.SPX 5000,DJIA 40,000, Nasdaq 18,000, Gold 2500, silver 50, GDX 60, GDXJ 100,SIL 75,SILJ 35.

... Aug 30

The market is just beginning its final melt-up leg into a secular top. Cyclical stocks, including transports, are just emerging from a 4 month consolidation & will join growth/tech to drive the markets sharply higher. S&P to 5000+,DJIA to 40,000+,Nasdaq to 18,000 & RUT to 2900.

[drbubb]

Q & A: What to Buy Now?

Q:   Your knowledge of the market and charts seems unusually Good

But interesting. Should I buy GDX?

A:   Maybe calls on GDX (or Gold stocks like Barrick, whose calls I have been buying recently),

Or swap some other (tech or large Cap) stocks into GDX. 

BTW, Mark Mobius is now recommending 10% exposure to Gold, away from stocks....

xx

[drbubb]

Is Gold About to Launch Into a Big Bull Market or Is This a Fake Out?

Where we look at short- and intermediate- and long-term price and momentum indicators along with volume profile to determine if the charts are bullish or bearish across the board equity and bond market to help prepare you for the trading week ahead.

[drbubb]

Buying gold shares might work in PHL too. 

APX.ph / Apex Mining .... 5yr: 2yr: 1yr: 10d / last P 1.51

APX. 5yr:

==

[drbubb]

xx update:

[drbubb]

"GOLD IS DEAD" is a very Bullish headline! 

Now we need that on the cover of TIME.  Haha /

Is gold dead? Bitcoin price to hit levels we 'cannot imagine'- Ronald-Peter Stoeferle  >

https://youtu.be/QIHJgncRbbM

[drbubb]

GDX-etc ... Feb-2021: 2018: 2019: 2020: 2yr: YTD: 10d / Gdx: $30.45/ Ugl: $56.19 (54.2%), Gold: $18.65 / Ugl: 33.2%

2020:

: 2018: 2020:

 

[drbubb]

Check out Wedge patterns... and Francis Hunt, "the Market Sniper"

Originator of The Hunt Volatility Funnel Method [HVF Method] Trader, Technical Analyst & Teacher

Silver from Video below: "You earn your money in your patience"

GDX : since Feb.2021: 2020: Last: $29.89

GDX: 2020: Last: $29.89. / Low:$16 > High:$45 > +$29, x50%: $14.5= $30.5 Target?

GLD from Jan.2020 / SLV:

Last: $163.51 -1.91, -1.15%, LOD: $163.27 / GBS.L $162.82 -2.73, -1.65%, LOD: $162.59

GLD: 4yr:

Interview: with Francis Hunt for Palisades Gold: "You earn your money in your patience"

Gold, Silver to turn on final dip & the Platinum Value Extremity, Rec 15th Sept 2021

x

[drbubb]

Looking Back to 2007

Clif High-2017 Predictions on Everything - inspired the following chart

UPDATED Zodiac Cycle: EEM-etc-2007:

===

Is there a LIMIT! 250%??  update:  w/EEM:

" The odd thing, amazing thing is how all these different assets, when I put them on a single chart- showed almost exactly the same size RANGE over a long period of time.  When the chart came up, I was amazed and intrigued."

SPY's limit is shown there.  And now in the last few days its started sliding.   If pure coincidence, it is an amazing one

Hunter's Forecast from Sep. 2nd: - SEE BELOW

HUNTER: Ye2020: 9/02 >  Forecast,  %

SPX —     3,756 :   4,537 >  5,000, +10.2%    
DJIA —  30,606 : 35,444 > 40,000, +12.9%
Nasdaq 12,888 : 15,331 > 18,000,  +17.4%
Gold —     1,894 :   1,810 >   2,500, +38.1%
UGL.  —   68.20 :  59.33 >   $104. +75.3%*
GDX.  —    36.02 :  32.50 >  60.00, +84.6%
GDXJ —    54.24 :  42.62 >   $100., +135%
Silver —    26.37 :  24.00 >   50.00,  +108%
AGQ   —    51.28 :  37.75 > 110.00, +191%*
SIL     —    45.62 :  40.03 >   75.00,  +87.3%
SILJ   —      6.31 :  13.34 >   35.00,  +162.%
====
* My own forecast, based on Hunter’s%

Stocks PEAKING?  Or Set for "spikey" Breakout?

SPY etc ... update:  w/GDX: 10d:

SPY: $453.19, up 21.2% from YE-2020 ($373.88), vs: GLD/Gold ($178.36) > $169.25, -5.11%

Precious Metals & Gold shares have lagged...

update: 10d:  UGL-$59.33, -13% from 68.20, GLD-$169.25, -5.1%, 178.36, since Ye2020

AGQ etc... fr. 2016: AGQ: $39.98

Hunter's comments;

David Hunter@DaveHcontrarian

9h

I see a lot of skepticism toward this equity market rally & even more toward the the metals & miners.I remain very bullish of equities & metals & expect sharply higher prices directly from here.SPX 5000,DJIA 40,000, Nasdaq 18,000, Gold 2500, silver 50, GDX 60, GDXJ 100,SIL 75,SILJ 35.

... Aug 30

The market is just beginning its final melt-up leg into a secular top. Cyclical stocks, including transports, are just emerging from a 4 month consolidation & will join growth/tech to drive the markets sharply higher. S&P to 5000+,DJIA to 40,000+,Nasdaq to 18,000 & RUT to 2900.

[drbubb]

Spring 2021 SWAP from Homebuilders (PHM/ Pulte) to Gold (GLD)?

If the homebuilder slide began in May 2021, at 36.9% of GLD

We may see Years of relative strength in Gold - like after 2005's peak (see heavy line)

PHM/ Pulte -etc.. from 1/2004: w/GDX: 10yr: 5yr: 2yr: 10d:: PHM: $47.49/ GLD: $163.30 = Ratio: 29.1%

PHM / Pulte Corp... All: 10yr: 5yr: 2yr: 10d/ PHM: $47.49

PHM: $47.49/ GLD: $163.30 = Ratio: 29.1%

==