PROPERTY VLOGgers in the Philippines

[drbubb]

PROPERTY & LIFESTYLE VLOGGERS ... link: https://tinyurl.com/PropVLOGS-Ph

: link

Above: Will Blanza gives a tour of his personal Condo unit.  It is : 2BR, 42 sqm.  And is For Sale too: at P 10 Million - could be great for a well-healed foreign vlogger, newly arrived in PHL and wanting a Pad in Makati

Vlog Name ...       :  Recent or suggested Video   +++  some Video & channel stats :     Episode Views: Video date/ subs. O'all Views

Making It Happen : Buying 2 Condos in MANILA?! Rich FOREIGNERS?!                                            69.0k: Jun 30, 2022  590k,  115.M)
Marvin Germo.      : THE CHEAPEST PROPERTY PRICES IN THE PHILIPPINES.                                41.0k: Mar.14, 2020  316k,  24.0M)
Property Club        :  Where to Live in the Philippines? Paradise Found!  (Peter)                              6.65k: May 30,2021  44.2k,  9.40M)
Every Man H.A.S   : Three Years in The Philippines Changed My Life. Every Man Has a Story.      75.0k: Jun.30, 2022  46. k,  6.00M)
Will Blanza, Realty: Condo Tour l Minimalist Condo l My Dream Home | Scandinavian Design.     139.k:  May 7, 2021   25. k,  2.08M)

MIca Canto.           : Tidily Transformation - Maximizing a Studio Unit :                                            990.k: June 9, 2019   31.K, 1.42 M)
Own Property PH  : COST OF LIVING IN A CONDO PHILIPPINES (WORK FROM HOME).               149.k: May 10, 2021  23.5K,  880.K)
The Savvy Expat   : Most Affordable Condo Units in Makati - Condos For Sale.                              6,025: Oct 15, 2021   18.7k, 1.51M)
Chris Suarez.         : Affordable Housing Finish & Flip ( Real Estate Investing )                                 2,034: Feb 19, 2022   20 .k,   983.K)
Dr Laway (lawyer) : Philippines My Cost of Living 2022 - vs .USA part III : pt.1: pt.2:                      4,000: July 12, 2022  18.1k,  1.10M)

Richard Carvajal   : Buying or Selling Condo Pasalo | What you need to know                                 8.83k: Sep 10, 2021   9.1 k, 443.k )
The Frugal Pinay   : WHY CONDOS ARE NOT A GOOD RENTAL INVESTMENT IN PHL.                  19.2k: May 19, 2020   ??. k,  112.K )
Grandpa's Store.   :  30 Surprising Tips !!! - To Comfortably Retire in the Philippines, 2022           7,700:   May 6, 2022   1.8K, 57,000)

[drbubb]

FOR FIRST TIME BUYERS, especially foreigners, the Making it Happen video is a decent place to start.

Buying 2 Condos in MANILA?!  Rich FOREIGNERS?! How can we REALLY afford it?

It is loaded with information.  (Mike and Nelly do a good and honest job. And so does their broker, Cyrille, from MEGAWORLD. But they give no detailed info on pricing and the overall market conditions.  What if you are seeking a real bargain rather than just accepting the developer's prices?)

ANOTHER VIDEO:  Buying a Condo (procedure & sales pitch, per Megaworld) :

If you want to be a smart buyer who doesn't want to wait 5-10 years to see a decent profit here are some additional factors you may want to consider...

1 / The market now has three tiers:

+ NEW /Under Construction : It takes about 5-7 years now to build a new condo. People buy condos on a monthly Installment basis, while they being built.

+ SECOND HAND : where a buyer gets a loan from his bank, and it might take 2-3 months for the seller to the get cash payment from the bank

+ DISTRESSED CASH SELLERS : the seller is in a hurry, and doesn't want to wait. Cash sales can be done in days or weeks, once the terms are agreed

Example: You can find cases where a brand new Condo under construction, is priced at as much as 1.5X to 2X a 5-10 year old condo almost next door to it.

The older one may be available as a bargain in the secondary market, if you find a motivated seller who wants cash in a hurry, rather than buying from a developer.  A pricing example follows. In Makati or BGC a brand new luxury condo (under construction) may be priced at, say 300-400k per sq meter (usd $5,500-7,300 per sqm). - That is something like Php 35 Million= $635k for a 100 sq meter unit, or about $600k for a 1,000 sqft. Condo.  You might find a condo, younger than 10 years in the immediate neighborhood at HALF that price (or less), assuming you negotiate well and pay cash.  In fact, the RENT achievable on both units may be pretty similar.  The expensive new property will not get a 50-100% greater Rent.  Maybe only 10-20% higher.  And so, the Rental Yield on the New Unit, on the new unit is likely to be much lower.  There is a phenomenon is called "Location! Location! Location! bias" which means that RENTS for a Condo are determined by size, location, and amenities, much more than by the COST the owner paid to purchase the unit.  (Sadly, you won't hear this crucial fact from many Property Agents. They pretend that Location only matters for purchase prices.)

2/ The long term Property Cycle peaked around the end of 2019, and is still correcting

Generally the Long cycle correction will consume 3-5 years.  See more below. 

So as I write this, the cyclical Downturn may only be half finished.   It is possible that the RENTAL market has bottomed.  Or is in the process of bottoming.  But many owners are struggling and may be willing to sell at a big discount to Developer prices.

The excesses in the Condo market from 2018-2020 Bubble Market are still not yet sorted out.  Many owners are struggling with debt payments, and rates right now are rising with higher inflation.   Also, those Investors who bought new may find there banks are not willing to finance the full amount of the last payment - before getting the keys.  So there are many Forced Sellers in the market.  Secondhand and resale prices remain under pressure, even though Rents may have stopped selling.

[drbubb]

When Your Property is in a "PRIME LOCATION" that might not be enough to guarantee a quick profit

You will hear that constant refrain from Developers, Brokers and Agents.

The arguments often go like this:

Fast Price Appreciation is very likely...

All factors previously discussed—prime location, spaciousness, rarity, and high-level security—contribute to the appreciation of luxury properties. These factors also influence increased demand, which could lead to fast appreciation. This means that the longer you hold onto a luxury property, the higher its future price. By making home improvements along the way, you can further maximize your returns.

It’s important to note that the time-honored mantra, “location, location, location,” is central in real estate appreciation. It signifies that the fast growth of property values largely depends on the location and its desirability. 

( I won't embarrass any well-meaning developer or website here by naming the source.)

Try this:  In Makati, you might take a photo sometime of two modern buildings, and ask you friendly agent why the NEW one, still under construction, is priced at 50% higher, 100% higher, or an even greater premium to the one next door to it.  Let us know, if you find an agent who can give you a good answer.

My own explanation for the Big PRICE GAP (of New-to-secondhand prices) follows...

Nearly ALL the developers have a business model that virtually requires them to continue raising prices. FOMA, Fear-Of-Missing-Out is one of the key drivers that developers use to get their prospects to buy.  They tell their customers that a price rise is coming in the next few days or weeks, and that often gets those sitting on the fence to buy - because they want to Beat the price rise.

Unfortunately, this model became broken during Covid*, because RENTS STOPPED RISE. In fact, in Makati where I live, Average Rents fell by 25-30% since the end of 2019 peak...

MORE (( Yields fell. Sophisticated property investors noticed.  And there are more than a few of those in PHL ))

*The Market is broken!:

x

[Guest Random property investor]

Good Work here!   Good to know where to find those Vloggers/

And I look forward to learning more about the Long Cycle in property.

[drbubb]

VIDEOS on the LONG CYCLE ....

The 18 year cycle = about 14 years up (two short cycles) + a 3-5 year correction

> Chart source : Real Estate rhythms :

This Cyclical approach has stood the test of time...  I discovered Harrison's Cycle back in 2006. And made some of the earliest Videos about it.

Property Cycle - Intro to Fred Harrison's 18 Year cycle : 11,900 views , Jul 25, 2008. FH predicted a 2-3 year "Winners Curse" starting in 2005

I produced this early Video(s) after reading Fred Harrison's book, and meeting with him personally a few times when I lived in London

More Detail here: Property Bust after 14 year Boom- Fred Harrison : Part 1 (20.5k views), Part 2 (7.7k views), Overall: 57k views

Many others have picked up on the concept since then

What is the Property Cycle :  12,753 views , Dec 3, 2021

Jamie York has a Vlog channel with 68.k subs, and 3.6Million Overall Views.

He might have been too Bullish.  I understand his basic Calculation: A 2008 Peak +18 years = expected Next Peak in 2026.

So he planned to be buying aggressively starting from 2020-21, trying to catch the thrilling last 3-5 years of the Long Cycle,

FOR THE UK PROPERTY MARKET as a Bellwether, we use BDEV / Barratt Developments, a major UK property developer. In their stock chart, we do not yet see an exciting takeoff and breakout in the chart. In fact. BDEV may be held back now by rising global interest rates.  Though if rates come down we might still get a big two-three year rally.

18.6 Year Real Estate Cycle : 5,159 views , May 18, 2020 ... Australia-based Vlogger. He's got 5 Rules he follows.

Pumped on Property has a Vlog channel with 10.6k subs, and 744k Overall Views.

He talks about the importance of CASH FLOW, and buying "something where you can add value", like a Granny Flat.

His 5 Rules are: Timing, Capital growth, Cash flow, Properties you can add value to, and Properties that give you tax benefits.

[drbubb]

JOEY BONDUC from Colliers was "Looking for a more positive Outlook for the year, 2022"

... when interviewed by Richard Carvajal : back in Feb. 2022 - "projecting a 2% rise in rents for 2022"

Real Estate Market Update 2022 | PART 1

Of course, part of his job to present a positive picture, to maintain market confidence

I sometimes use DEVELOPER SHARE PRICES, to help make forecasts of turning points, and where we are in the Long Cycle.

Ayalaland's share price has recently hit a new Low for the Year - so if they remain an effective forward-looking Bellwether, this might be projecting lower property prices over the next 6 to 12 months.  Note that: the mid-2019 peak was about six months ahead of the end-2019 Property peak.

ALI / Ayalaland ... All Data : 5yr: 1yr: 10d / Last (7.15.22):  P 22.55, yrL: 22.35

The current downwards momentum seems likely to take ALI to P20.00, and maybe lower.

A good bounce from that level seems likely.  But the recent Low could get retested, and beaten on the downside.

== UPDATE: 7.22.2022 ==

SMPH / SM Prime Hldgs .. All Data : 5yr: 1yr: 10d / Last (7.22.22):  P 36.00, yrL: 31.45.   smph/ali (24.90) = 144.6%

smph/ali (26.00/24.90) = Best ever SMPH premium?  with Ratio at 144.6%

update: w/VLL, w/MEG:

[drbubb]

Canadians sometimes get over-impressed with BGC. 

Herein, they seem to think they are in a new Toronto, so modern & clean, but with heat.  (haha)

Foreigners In BGC, Probably The Most Modern City In The World

Comment : haha /.  BGC is Fantasy Island. And like Mr Rourke, at rush hour you may need an aircraft or a helicopter to get in and out. Of course, if you stay there all the time, you may not notice.  Entry and Exit transport times are unimportant, only to those who both LIVE and WORK in BGC.  And spend all their time "on the Island."

That Grand old lady called MAKATI still has a lot to recommend it. And especially some of the best paying jobs, and the glittering suburbs that partly surround it. Makati feels like the TOP CBD in the Philippines during the week. And on the weekend, it feels like a Village.

BPI's New Headquarters is under construction on Ayala Avenue.  Amazing new corporate HQ are still being planned and built on Ayala Avenue. And it is easier to get to the rest of Manila from Makati than it is from BGC.

[drbubb]

OPENING A BUSINESS VENTURE - Foreigners can do it!  Even a Coffee shop / Restaurant

Mike, of the MakingItHappen Vlog, plans to open a Coffee Shop. Can fuel income growth, when property prices are stagnant.

Mike chose some of the dishes, and tries them out in this Video

Working with FILIPINOS for my FIRST BUSINESS in the Philippines!

==

[drbubb]

EXPAT EXPLORES BUYING a P41 Million Fully Furnished 3BR unit from MEG. 

41M/ 130 sm= P315k per sq.  "25% discount for Cash (= P31M, or P237k psm),

and a 15% discount for Rent-to-Own"  (sounds strange.)  The guy is experienced and makes some worthwhile comments; 

"The Furniture and Decor is worth P 1.5 Million," he says.

Hmm. The fact that MEG has furnished these units, makes me think they are having a tough time selling them at the List prices in the ordinary way.

CASH PRICE, he said is:  41 M x 75% = P31 Million, or P237k psm),

RENT TO OWN SCHEME ... at P39.5 Million

Move-in after a 10% downpayment (3.95M, 12.7% of P31M), and then a 36 month period before the Big Balloon (23.7M , or 76% of Cash price) is due.

So:  31M, with 87% 27M financed, and payments as follows:

So:  31M, with 87% 27M financed, and payments as follows:

========: Periodic x pmts = Total.  ???

Downpayment :  Upfront :        3.95M
Monthly Pmt.   :  110K :  x36=  3.95M
Periodic Pmts. :  988K : x  4=  3.95M
=========== : ========>  11.85M. (30%)
BALLOON : paid at 37 mo.s = 23.70M (60%)
MISSING part of 70%.          =  3.95M  (10%)
=========== : Entire 70%: 27.65M.
=========== : Total Pmts.: 39.50M. ???
            : Compare with Cash ( 31.00M)
Interest, Extra amount.              8.50M
Less: Rental Value.                  ( 3.95M) Thru use, over 3 years
Interest, Extra amount.              4.55M
Financed (-downpmt,).            22.50M
Interest as Pct, Financed.         20.2%
Per annum, / 3 years :               6.74%
- Will be higher, since some debt was repaid

[drbubb]

A CYBER TRIBE?

Seems like the most popular Expat Vloggers in PHL all know each other

Guess who I bumped into in BGC Philippines

The Juicy Vlog  . 3 weeks ago

Small world! Great to hang out

Vic Robles Jr .  3 weeks ago

My dream collab would be Mergim, Mike (of Making It Happen), Jonathan (of Travel Escapes), Ken (of Ken Abroad) and Seungha (of Filipino Boo) together in one place. That would be like a UN Convention. Brit, Austrian, American, German and Korean in one vlog!

[drbubb]

DESIGN VLOGGER, Gerold, StudioPloy, FB : was RECOMMENDED to Me, & I loved the Video.  So I shall Add it here...

Have you seen this Video yet?  I think he did a great job. And we should reach out to him someday (to attend the MeetUp): 

Studio Unit Makeover (23 SqM / 248 SqFt) |  "My favourite small unit project to date". 

( This is an Avida unit. Possibly Avida Southpoint.)

[drbubb]

Gerold, "STUDIO PLOY" designer does Offices too.  And launches a New Video every two weeks

Studio Apartment Turned Into A Classy Law Office (45 SqM / 484 SqFt).  

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XtAB7rGzwNc&t=0s

xx

x