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FXFX Charts.   ... Quick Link to here: tinyurl.com/FxFx-charts

FX extreme?  We may be getting a BOTTOM soon in EUR, GBP, JPY, etc.       . FX-10d: w/AU:

EUR,GBP. All: 10yr: 5yr: Ytd: 10d / EUR: $0.961, Eur1.04 GBP: $1.072 / JPY: 144.55, KRW: 1,431



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  • drbubb changed the title to FXFX Charts

Viber Chat post (by TS)

A slight turn in USD and equities.

Still too early to say reversal but worth watching closely.

SPX  3683
BTC 19,726
Silver  18.53 / Gold: 3d
€  0.9634 / UsdEUR: 1.038
GBP 1.0770
¥ 144.45  / UsdJPY: 0.0069
Long Bond 126.90/ TLT, 103.68=122.4%: TYX: 3.69%: ROP: 5.15%, 2030
PSEI       6,069
EUR 50  3,359
VIX Oct 30.22 (will drop if equities rally temporarily) === Update: 10d chart, below


The above chart was updated as of Wed., Sept. 28th, 8am Manila time

===> Click on FXFX-10d chart link, below to get updated "almost LIVE" chart:   Full LINK details

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EUR : Political trouble ahead... after election of new PM in Italy?


Arch. Bishop Vigano has just written about the expected anti-EUR agenda of the new PM:          

“Many People Are Becoming Aware of the Very Serious Coup d’état that is Being Carried Out by Supranational Powers”

– Archbishop Vigano on the Election of Giorgia Meloni              

"Meloni ... defends those sound basic principles of civil coexistence, palely inspired by the Social Doctrine of the Church, but which Italians are not willing to give up: protection of the natural family, respect for life, security and the fight against illegal immigration, an end to gender and LGBTQ+ indoctrination for minors, freedom of enterprise, the presence of the State in strategic assets, a greater weight in European affairs and    God willing! – the exit from the euro                 ...and the return to national sovereignty. In short, Meloni is expected to behave like the leader of a moderate right-wing party, tendentially conservative, moderately sovereigntist. Nothing extreme  – certainly not extreme right  – in spite of the alarmist proclamations of the Left..."

> Vigano's article:


Maybe swapping into the weaker GBP could make sense.   I reckon there is a decent chance the bounce back in GBP, when it comes, could be more enduring.  Though I haven't played that card yet

Market Mayhem (9.28): Reports The Economist in its latest issue:
"Around the world, financial markets look increasingly distressed. In Britain government-bond yields have surged and sterling has slumped, prompting the Treasury and Bank of England to issue statements attempting to soothe markets."

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XBT / Bitcoin is trying to put in a possible long term bottom near $18-19,000, (-73% off the $67,000 High)

At least with Housing, and edible, usable commodities, if you buy it, and later DON'T LIKE THE PRICE... You can Eat it, or Use it. 

This potential personal Usability is not the case with Bitcoins.   Which is one reason I see it as a speculation, rather than something to Buy and Hold for the long term.  If something happens to limit its usefulness as a quasi-currency, you may be left with something that is useless and valueless.

"I am a SOL Man" - but only in a very tiny way so far ... SOL : $33 appox.


There seems to be enormous potential optionality built into this chart

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UGL (2x Gold) shows... Gold and Gold stocks are still in a downtrend.            TradingVideo

UGL, vs. GDX, SLV .. 2016: Ytd: 10d : $46.94, $23.58, 50.2%), $17.45, 37.2% (gold: $1660/ gld: $154.69 =10.73)




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Just "short-covering"?  Or MORE?  SPY... 370.53 +7.15, +1.97% Vol. 110.8 Million,

SPY/ SP500 ... ALL: 10yrL: 5yr: Ytd: 10d/ 9.25.22: 370.53.  Day L: 362.60, +2.19%, Yr.L: 360.87, +2.68%


Ytd: 10d/ 9.25.22: 370.53.  Day L: 362.60, +2.19%, Tue.L: 360.87,  Yr.L: 360.87, +2.68% ... qqq: iwm: ukx:


Interesting Day!  The reversal Up from Day's L > Close was: 7.93 pts., +2.19%

I note that the LOW was almost the same as the 200wk ($359) / 987d. MA ($356).

The 200wk Moving Ave. is identified many important Lows! 10yr. chart.


At 110M, the volume is above the usual daily average of about 75 Million.

Wed's Up Move NEEDS FOLLOW THROUGH! to be meaningful

Still hoping that SPY would hold those LOWS of Tue. Near $360.  Or even the 987d MA near $356 (rising).  

But it may not.  Next step down might be $320 - Ugh!

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CHOOSING a Currency Pair to Trade

SELL the Dollar vs. YEN here?      / USD in JPY ... 10d : Y144.44



JPY - I might want Sell the USD there at 144.44= 0.006922. with a pretty tight stop.

(think: ATR, Average True Range, As a way to set the stop. With the distance to the stop, such as Y145.06= 0.006894 , determined by the average trading range in JPY over a day or so.). Here, the potential gain, down to Y141=  and beyond could be multiples of the distance to the Stop.)

Potential: 3.44 Gain / 0.62 Loss: Ratio: 5.5x

You could also Buy EUR / short the USD in EUR ... 10d : Eur1.0329= (EUR= $0.968)


You might allow a larger move up, to say Eur 1.0406.  With a Target gain to 1.000, or lower

I prefer Buying JPY, partly because Japan's Central Bank might be there to protect the trade, since they have been active in the market since the initial test of Y145

(update😞 The drop that came was mainly in the EUR (to $1.018) and GBP ($0.895, from $0.930),  JPY held up, above Y144 so far.


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Just saw GLD/ Gold pushed up off Low (152.93= 1616) by heavy volume ... r10.57

GLD / Gold... YTD: 10d: 3d / Last: $154.69 +3.15, +2.08%, Day.L: 152.93, on Vol. 8.97 Million


During Financial Crisis, GOLD Is The First To Reverse Higher | Bruce Smith

Most of this interview is about Radius Gold / RDU,  but near 30 minutes, he talks about how Gold is often the first to gain buyers when markets have sold off heavily: "first to come back; first to do well".  Seems we saw that in 2020.


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GOLD PRICE is being helped higher, by an upturn in Currencies against the USD

EUR, GBP, against USD vs Gold, UGL is 2x Gold ... 10d : Ytd: Ytd-gld-spy:


Blowouts: Ytd: Ytd-gld-spy:


Blowout#1 - was Jan to early March, when Gold and UGL shot up while Stocks slid.  40% outperformance!

Blowout#2, with another period of Gold outperformance may be just ahead.

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SILVER WARNING and Chart update - Breakout Ahead??

SLV / Silver: 3yr: Ytd: 10d /  9.30.22 close:


WARNING!  Is this News as Bullish as it sounds ??  Time will tell.

FLASH UPDATE: Silver Disappearing Fast

REMINDER from the Precious metals thread...

Commercial LONGS are a key signal for when to Go Long Silver.

SILVER, starting from 2016 - Right NOW, we are already IN a Buying Window


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So what happened on Monday?  WHAM!  A big 9% Jump in Silver!

Silver: "best daily gain since mid-Aug., 2020" :  $20.70 + 1.675, +8.8% : 3d:


SLV / Silver etf... All: 3yr: Ytd: 10d / Last: $19.10, +$1.60, +9.14% (Range: 16.19 to 24.90 )


SLV All: 3yr: Ytd: 10d / $19.10,  YrH: x, Yr.L: x, is X% above that



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With so many gold and silver bears, it doesn't take much to trigger a short squeeze

shutterstock_1348475174.jpg(Kitco News) - The U.S. dollar's unrelenting rally at a 20-year high continues to force hedge funds to increase their bearish bets in gold, according to the latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Although there are risks that the U.S. dollar could push precious metal prices lower, analysts note that Monday's 2% rally in the gold market is an indication that the market is susceptible to a short-covering squeeze.

The silver market is seeing an even more substantial short squeeze as prices last traded at $20.71 an ounce, up nearly 9% on the day. Silver is seeing its best daily percentage gain since mid-August 2020.

Gold prices last traded at $1,704 an ounce, their highest level since Sept. 15. According to analysts, bearish gold investors are covering their short bets as rising global economic uncertainty and a potential international banking crisis are driving renewed interest for safe-haven assets.

"There are so many shorts that it just takes a small catalyst to ignite a much bigger rally," said Netish Shah, head of commodity research at WisdomTree.

Many analysts have been warning of the extreme short position building in the gold market as hedge funds increase their bearish bets for the seventh consecutive month.

The CFTC disaggregated Commitments of Traders report for the week ending Sept. 27 showed money managers dropped their speculative gross long positions in Comex gold futures by 4,373 contracts to 74,171. At the same time, short positions rose by 2,026 contracts to 117,265.

Gold's net short positioning now stands at 43,094 contracts, up nearly 17% from the previous week. Positioning is at its lowest point since November 2018.   "At this stage, the main buyer is likely to be money managers reducing short bets on COMEX gold," said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.

BEAR argument:  Gold has NOT Priced in all Rate rises

"While rates markets continue to reflect a more aggressive Fed rate hiking path, gold markets are still not pricing in the next stage of the hiking cycle. Amid persistent inflation, a restrictive rates regime may last longer than historical precedents, pointing to a prolonged period of pronounced weakness in precious metals," the analysts said in a note.

While hedge funds remain significantly bearish on gold, they are reducing their overall exposure in silver.

The disaggregated report showed that money-managed speculative gross long positions in Comex silver futures fell by 2,165 contracts to 34,429. However, short positions also rose by 2,093 contracts to 42,522.

Silver's positioning is now net short by 8,093 contracts, relatively unchanged from the previous week.

Although silver's bearish positioning has bounced off its recent three-year lows, analysts note that sentiment is still significantly depressed and ripe for a short squeeze. 

> MORE: https://www.kitco.com/news/2022-10-03/With-so-many-gold-and-silver-bears-it-doesn-t-take-much-to-trigger-a-short-squeeze.html

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GOLD's RISE was nearly ALL currency related ... see chart, GLD-10d : see FXFX-Gld, same period

CPM Video / Jeff Christian: "TARGETS: Gold: $1735, Silver: $21.40
Then backing off, and continuing to consolidate. “Not expecting Silver at $30. Maybe $23-24”


From the Low ($151), GLD/ Gold is up to $161 - that's +6.6%.  And SLV is up YY% for same period.


GOLD-in-EUR shows how recent jump in Gold-in-US$ did not cause a breakout in the EUR price

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The problem for Stocks is Weak Bonds!

If TLT falls <$100, Stocks will likely break Key support. YTD: 3m: 10d: qqq: 269.10 / tlt: 100.99=2.66x, spy: 363


SPY - $360: Such a Key Level !

Charts: All: 10yr: 5yr: 3yr: Ytd: 10d / Last: $362.79 -10.41, -2.8%  dayL: 360.94, 987d.MA: $357


All: 10yr: 5yr: 3yr: Ytd: 10d / Last: $362.79


QQQ / Invesco QQQ Trust, is Also ON KEY SUPPORT

Charts: All: 10yr: 5yr: 3yr: Ytd: 10d / Last: $269.10 -10.66, -3.8%  dayL: 267.10, 987d.MA: $270




TLT / Tbonds etf..   ALL:


Ratio: 360 / 100 = 3.60%. Bonds are cheaper than Stocks (SPY)


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TLT / Bonds Chart may be targeting $97, not $100... ALL: Last: $100.99

Might slip a bit lower - like $97. Old resistance: Jun’03: $97.18, Jun’05: $96.70, Mar'08: $97.18, Jun’11: $97.64
(Day H: 97.28, 6.13.03-Fri; 96.72, 6.30.05-Thu;  97.75, 3.20.08-Thu; 97.90, 7.14.11-Thu)


GOLD's Rally was also destroyed by weak Bonds



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A REVERSAL FOR THE AGES - 10.13.2022, "When there's No one Left to Sell"

"Everyone was limit Short... A short covering Rally," says the Real Finance guest.  But I think you will learn some deeper things soon.  Probably this weekend. 

Then WATCH BONDS next week!   (Or. Maybe it will take a few more days. but we must be close to a major Turn in bonds imho.)

=== 10d chart


TURNAROUND THURSDAY?  SPY: $365.97 +2.64%, and +4.80% !! from $349.21 Opening! 

But here's the BIG "Tell":  Don't believe it!  Until you see Bonds rising too.  TLT: $99.39 -0.96% (blue line, above)


A 5-7% swing!  Biggest reversal in US Stock History, brought SPY, Ytd, the key Benchmark back above the Key Moving Average Support line,

on 147M share volume.  But I reckon it needs Help from the Bond market now

+ it doesn t look as if this rally has got any legs ....now with earnings season starting and results should confirm lower profitability there is no justification for higher equty prices ...inflation outlook still gloom

+ the fact that everyone is so pessimistic is the only redeeming factor of US equities now

haha. Yes. And the HUGE amount of nervous cash on the sidelines.  Probably smarter to put to into Bonds now.  They could rally, even as ST rates go up

USD Debt looks SOOO Expensive now to borrowers.  DESIGN: this will certainly bring a slowdown in the economy.  Revenues of Real estate brokers and builders is down like 80% I heard from Steve Cortez.  That is like a Depression

If you buy Notes/bonds, like 2-3 years, or even longer, you can sit and collect interest until maturity in the worst case.  Your Dividend return on most stocks will be lower.  If you are a pension fund, you need some level of Bonds to assure a Cash return.  We are back at Bond price levels of 2011, eleven years ago.  The LOW in Bonds can easily come BEFORE the peak in Fed Short term rates

LQD / High qualiity Liquid Corp bonds have already collapsed well below old support.  This is an UNPRECEDENTED Loss of Wealth!  (ALREADY)   Something must be breaking, if only USD Pension payment plans


LQD collapse already looks as Ugly or Uglier than the Lehman's related Collapse, and we haven't even see yet what "SHOE" is dropping.  Lots of Shoes maybe!  Maybe we will find out this weekend.  It would be right-on-schedule for the mid-October Seasonal low

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BIG 3 of 3 Down Coming? After next Rally. So thinks Daneric E-Wave analysis


First part of w3 down may have just finished yesterday

Meantime, On US Rates, TYX: the March to 4.0% is completed.

Charts: ALL: 3yr: Last: 39.32= 3.93%, Day H: 40.12, 52wk R: 16.78 to 40.12


3yr: Last: 39.32= 3.93%, Day H: 40.12,


CRB vs. TYX: from 2015: 10.14.19: 3yr: Ytd: Ytd-w/Dba: 10d:: TYX: 39.32 / CRB: 27.47= Ratio: 143.1%


RATIO: TYX (39.32) / CRB (282.49): 13.9%.  CRB / CRB.IT (27.47) = 10.28x : 143%


XLE (83.39) to CRB


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  • 2 weeks later...

WE NEED Local communities that can TRADE with each other

Why the Relationship Between Debt, Gold and Real Estate is Important: Russell Gray

NO WAY are we going to get a Stock Rally from here like we got in 2020. 

Why?  Because the SMART MOVE now is to swap from (expensive) stocks to (cheap) Bonds. 

Check out the RATIO of SPX-to-TLT (recent 41.24) was exactly 3X the 13.78 ratio of the 2020 Low..  


As Russell Gray says;  People will not access the Bond market, "they will have to sell shares"

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BOTTOMING AREA ? Have SLV, GDX made a Low already? ... Late October 2022 Update

UGL (2x Gold) shows... Gold and Gold stocks are challenging the Downtrend.            TradingVideo

UGL, vs. GDX, SLV .. 2016: Ytd: 10d : $45.69, $24.72, 54.1%), $17.74, 38.8% (gold: $1645/ gld: $153.16 =10.74)


Since 2016:



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