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RISE /AIR, the Makati Subway, INFRA & the Three BIG SISTERS


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RISE /AIR, the Makati Subway, INFRA & the Three BIG SISTERS

RISE, AIR & Makati Subway's Central Park Station

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The area will benefit from the imminent completion of THREE Large office buildings that I call "the THREE BIG SISTERS"

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ALTAIRE, AFT & MAKATI COMMERCIAL Towers will bring over 30,000-40,000 additional employees to the Area .    

  - the impact on RENTS in the Area could be substantial

Office Building: Yr.  Storeys.  Leasable   /5sq
Alveo Fin’l T.   2021. 49 Fl. grA: 63,700 = 12.7k Possible Office tenants
Blakes W.E.T.  2022. 36 Fl. grA: 11,432  =  2.3k
Mak. Com’l T. 2023. 36 Fl. grA: 58,000 = 11.6k
Altaire Tower  2024. 45 Fl. grA: 58,273 = 11.7k
========== <2yr. 166fl. === 191.4k = 38.3k

Condos ===:  Year Storeys Units x 2 tenants
LeratoTwr x3 ’18-21  116Fl.:  1,329 =   2.6k, 12.6%
Rise Makatii   : 2021  59 Fl.:  2,822 =  5.6k, 26.8%
Air Resid.       : 2022  51 Fl.:  3,642 =   7.2k, 34.6%
SanAntonioR : 2022. 40 Fl.:    956 =   1.9k,   9.1%

Ellis LevisteSt : 2022. 2? Fl.:   ???
Lush Resid.    : 2023. 25 Fl.:    674 =   1.3k,   6.4%
Red Resid.      : 2024. 31 Fl.: 1,106 =    2.2k, 10.5%
==========  <2yr. 322 fl: 10.53k = 21.1k: 100%

1 / Alveo Financial Tower (End 2022: move-ins may begin any day)

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The Alveo Financial Tower formerly known as the JAKA Tower is an office skyscraper underconstruction in Makati, Philippines. The construction of the tower formerly owned by the JAKA Group of the family of Senator Juan Ponce Enrile commenced in 1996 but was halted in 1998. In 2014 it was acquired by Ayala Land which later through its unit Alveo Land relaunched the tower as the Alveo Financial Tower in 2015. The tower's turnover date is scheduled for 2021.

2/  Makati Commerce Tower (2023)

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The Makati Commercial Tower is a 58,000 sqm Grade A and pre-certified LEED Gold building that offers 36 floors - 25 of which are intended for office leasing. This high-profile development located along Buendia Avenue is masterly designed by world-renowned architecture firm Woods Bagot and developed by BPE Asia Real Estate Fund, L.P.   The future-proof designed building is equipped with sustainable and modern features aligned with environmental essentials. Energy-saving features such as natural lighting, a Low-E glass facade, and a 10-storey high living green wall to maintain the fresh air and overall environmental quality.

3/ Altaire Tower (2024)

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Altaire (2024) is an iconic 45-storey office building developed by Innoland Development Corporation. It is set to rise along Malugay Street inside the Makati Central Business District. The tower will offer 58,273 sq m of leasable office space and 984 sq m of leasable retail area. It has a building efficiency of 84%. This grade A and green efficient building provides expertly designed office spaces and a stylish retail area. It ensures that tenants will get to enjoy the most contemporary office space possible. From its notable façade, expansive and well-appointed lobby, to carefully-planned shared amenities, Altaire seeks to deliver an exclusive environment for its prime tenants.

The unique environment of this prominent structure provides tenant a challenging, fun and diverse working lifestyle. Within the vicinity are the Alphaland Makati Place, Bureau of Internal Revenue (BRI), Pag-Ibig Fund Main office and the numerous fast-food chains, shops and cafes.  It is easily reach through various jeepneys and buses crossing Buendia Avenue.

 

Other significant, but smaller Office Towers in the area...

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Blakes Tower

 Blakes Tower is the most recent addition to Eton Properties' Eton WestEnd Square mixed-use complex in West Makati. It is a 36-story high-rise building with approximately 11,431.86 sq m of leasable area for office spaces and serviced apartments, responding to the rising need for pulsing and vibrant mixed-use estates.
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Makati / BGC subway is Real !  ... and getting built (inside a public co., INFRA.ph)

Route from a regulatory filing submitted by Philippine Infradev Holdings Inc, also in 2019

(2019)

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It is Happening! (these Sep.2022 photos Prove it!)

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Makati Subway Update | Sept. 10, 2022

INFRA.ph / Philippine Infradev Holdings ... ALL: 10yr: 5yr: 2yr: '21: 1yr: 6mo: Ytd: 10d / BkValue: 23.43 YE'21

12.29.22: 0.92'22 Range: 0.82 to 1.25

'2021:  Price strength if/when= a sign that construction may be going well. 2021-w/TLT: 0.93 +0.02, 1.20.23

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2019: PinchPoint!

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ALL:

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PHILIPPINE INFRADEV HOLDINGS INC (formerly IRC Properties, Inc).: website:

Address: 34th Floor, Rufino Pacific Tower, 6784 Ayala Avenue, Makati Address: 3

The OTHER (Longer) Subway line - QC (and above) to Airport

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MAP OF THE FUTURE?

The imagined (& partly fantasized?) future of Greater Manila's rail system

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> + Intermodal Study: Proximity ... of Public Transport Terminals in Metro Manila

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  • drbubb changed the title to RISE, AIR area & Makati Subway's Central Fire Station

WHERE the money came from - 2019 version

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Makati subway project gets additional $332-million initial funding

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  • 4 weeks later...

ONE AYALA brings Improving Transport connections: from Late 2022

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Ayala's new Mall and Office towers incorporate transport innovations. Source

New EDSA Ayala bus terminal opens ahead of holiday rush

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The new station, located at the corner of EDSA and Ayala Avenue, is equipped with three bays that can accommodate nine buses each simultaneously. All three bays are set to be fully operational by April 2023.

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According to Ayala Land, the station can serve up to 300,000 passengers a day, with terminals serving southbound city buses and point-to-point buses to FTI, Alabang, Sta. Rosa-Balibago, and Biñan. Modern jeepneys and PUVs will also have access to the terminal.

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Northbound passengers have access to the station through the McKinley-Ayala Footbridge. A connection to the MRT3 Ayala Station will also open by December 2022.    https://www.rappler.com/business/edsa-ayala-bus-terminal-opens-november-2022/

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  • 4 weeks later...

This PROGNOSIS for 2023 (from MDS) - he is also Bullish on Makati

Making forecasts is always extremely difficult so thought about making a list of a few things worth watching closely..

1. China reopens.. will it boost demand for property again? How will PH navigate its historical closeness to US with the fact that China is its biggest trading partner.

2. Infrastructure: felt like forever but MRT-7 will likely be close to completion by year end… good for fairview area and others along the line? Cavite extension is also scheduled for end of 2024.. becomes palpable. I m quite bullish fairview upwards..

3. Inflation rates.. inflation rates will come off due to high base in 1H and recession elsewhere but unclear if we will really get a sustainable move down. Much has to do with commodities being increasingly scarce in a bifurcated world and hence the scramble to secure it, may keep prices higher than we think. Construction costs have increased a lot I hear.. I m still looking for a good way to think about “replacement value” since the higher cost of new supply should help raise the price of existing stock.

4. Interest rates.. will remain high. Affordability of property with external funding will remain challenging.. esp on the higher end. Unless foreign demand comes in, I see this as a big headwind for primary pre-selling. I also believe that RTO schemes will increasingly compete with Pre-selling as developers need to unwind their unsold units. Most of the RTO schemes suck however ..

5. Rents: I think we re at the inflection point in nominal terms for them to recover (at least we have been able to push through small increases). In real terms (i.e inflation adjusted) however it remains tricky.. the key question for ‘23 is whether market is tight enough for landlords to adjust rents up in line with inflation seen past 2-3y everywhere else. 17% vacancy as per colliers looks like it could remain tough … but let’s face it.. a lot of units have owners overseas who were not able to take care of them during the pandemic.

6. Supply: speaking of pricing power, Makati looks pretty good with only 1000 new units expected by end of 2024.. BGC sees +3000 units. Interesting to see that BGC has 33% more units than makati now… and hence I don’t really see a big difference in rental value between the two, despite properties in BGC trading at a premium. Bay Area obviously still screwed with +45% supply to come.. given the underwhelming pre-sellings, higher construction costs.. I believe we will have a few years of low supply coming to market in second half of this decade which will finally give us some pricing power! Any good areas in metro Manila with good supply/demand dynamics?

Anyways.. lots of things to watch! What are you looking out for? Curious to hear where everyone has its focus and where opportunities could arise ..

( M.D.S.)

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"THREE BIG SISTERS" ... / Alternative image based on Order of completion: is like this... AFT/ MCT/ Alt.: M.A.A. no map :

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The three Big Sister office buildings:   Makati Commercial Tower, Alveo Financial Tower,  Altaire

( My own reactions to MDS' comments were ) :
     Thanks for that, Marc.  I agree with most of your comments. In fact i am the most bullish on makati rents for the Rise and Kroma area.  I see potential for the best percentage gains since i started coming here 6 or more years ago.

   Rise and Kroma rents could (easily?) go back to pre-covid levels within the next 2-3 years, thanks to the extra tenant demand in the area.  (But I cannot guarantee that.)

    Not sure what will happen to prices since rents have some catching up to do. But cheaper units below p 150k per sq may do best.  Thanks to Expected rental demand from the three big sisters.

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NEW PROPERTIES that should benefit from expected tenant demand from Three Big Sisters.

Newly turned over:  Rise, Air, Lush.  Asten, San Antonio Res., PDR.  Kroma. (secondhand prices are lower than brand new units):

Future Turnovers, still under Construction.  Presale units are available on installment basis, on the following Condos...

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RED Residences (SMDC) : about 250-300k per sqm., t/o: Q1.2024, 5 min. walk from MCT

RED Residences MAKATI PROJECT UPDATES | Jayson Tumacas Realty

FIVE REASONS why Red Residences is “Hot”
  1. Prestigious & prominent location in Makati CBD
  2. Valuable: Makati condo prices are (were?) booming
  3. Interconnected with infrastructure developments:
       N/S railway station, skyway to NLEX, Subway station
  4. Chino Roces neighbourhood is “strategic”. A Gateway
  5. The Condo is Zoned for flexible uses and safety
===
Prices already rose +120% since launch.
1.106 residential units, 8th-31st fl./ 277 parking slots

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RED Residences         :  Price  :  sqm: Per sm
TLP / Total List Price. : 6.529k / 26.0 = 251k
TAP / Total All-in Price: 7,737k / 26.0 = 298k
(W/ various financing schemes)
Note: VAT is 12%. Other Charges, 6.5%

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Southpoint (Avida) : est. 250k per sqm. , 15-20 min. down Chino Roces

Avida Towers Makati Southpoint Don Chino Roces Ave., Makati City | Avida Properties - Ken Sager

 

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  • drbubb changed the title to RISE, AIR area, the Makati Subway & the Three BIG SISTERS
  • 3 weeks later...

CAPACITY MATTERS! And It is TIGHTENING in Makati.

(But not so tight in BGC, and may be scarily High in Manila Bay, depending on type of Office workers are employed there)

A QUICK CASE for MakatI Condos - in numbers

Assumes 5 SqM/worker, 0% vacancies
Office Sq.M.        Workers: End 2026
Makati  : 3.39M /5= 678k: 3.51 M, 702k
BGC/Ft.: 2.42M /5= 484k: 2.82M, 564k
Ortigas : 2.08M /5= 416k: 2.46M, 492k
Q. City  : 1.53M /5= 306k:  2.19M, 438k
BayArea  1.16 M /5= 232k: 1,58M, 316k
Alabang   788 K /5= 158k:  883 K, 177k
Mak.Frin  570 K /5= 114 k:  872 K, 174k
Ort.Fring  606 K /5= 121k:  804 K, 161k

CAPACITY (At 2.5 people/ Condo.)  
Condos:  Ye’21 :   Ppl. /   Ye’24 Ppl.
Makati : 28,550: 71.4k/ 29,680:  65.3k
BGC/Ft: 40,320: 101.k/ 43,840:  110.K  
Ortigas: 18,730: 46.8k/  21,760: 54.4k
BayArea 30,260: 75.7k/ 44,143: 110.k
Alabang:  4,880: 12.2k/   6.370: 15.9k
=====

Pct. Workforce : ’21 vs. ’26
Makati : 71.4k 10.5% / 65.3k 9.30%
BGC/Ft: 101. k 20.9% / 110.k 19.4.%
Ortigas: 46.8k 11.3% / 54.4k  11.1 %
BayArea 75.7k 32.6%/  110.k 34.8%
Alabang 12.2k 7.72% /  15.9k 8.99%
=====

Assuming every office is full, without double-shifting...

Makati has sufficient Condo capacity, to house 10.5% of its (potential) workforce, and that will slide to just 9.3%.

To me, this suggests strongly that MAKATI RENTS will Rise, as inflation pushes wages up, and workers compete with each other to find housing, bidding up Rents.  BGC Capacity will fall too, but it will have TWICE as much capacity as Makati.  This suggests lower rental demand pressure, and significantly lower Rental yields (on today's prices) in BGC.

Manila BAY AREA is a different story...

Condo Capacity '21 / Ye'24 to '26:
BayArea 75.7k 32.6%/  110.k 34.8%

At first glance, the 33-35% Capacity looks alarmingly high - could be bad news for Condo Owners and Landlords.  And it would be very worrying, if Offices and Workers in Manila Bay were exactly the same as in Makati and BGC.  They are not.  There are more POGO type offices, and offices with 24 hour workforce.  There is much more Double-shifting and Triple-shifting.  This means each desk might get used by 2-3 different workers during a typical day, and so you might get much more than one worker for every 5 sq meters of office space.   Another point is that: those workers who finish their work at night, or other awkward times when regular transport may not be available, might have a higher tendency to want to live close to their offices. so they can walk to work and home.  This would BOOST the demand for nearby office space.  So that would help to explain the high Condo capacity numbers in the Bay area. 

But I am concerned,..  POGO businesses have shutdown, many POGO operators have shrunk or left the Philippines.  Others have shifted to other areas, such as Pampanga.  This does not bode well for Rents in Manila bay, demand for Condo spaces may stay week, even as the # of Condo units in the BAY AREA rises, with completions.  The # of Condos is expected to rise by +46% to 44,143: (Capacity for maybe 110k? potential residents) by Year End 2024.  I would not invest there, unless I say very cheap prices in an attractive Condo building.  Rental yields may (continue to) fall anyway.

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INFRA NEWS :

The company incorporated in 2019 the Makati City Subway, Inc. (MCSI) that will be used as a special corporate vehicle for its subway project in Makati.

1.  Philippine Infradev Holdings Inc. Reports Earnings Results for the Third Quarter Ended September 30, 2022

 
11/14/2022 | 03:14am EST
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Philippine Infradev Holdings Inc. reported earnings results for the third quarter and nine months ended September 30, 2022. For the third quarter, the company reported revenue was PHP 13.38 million compared to PHP 7.41 million a year ago. Net loss was PHP 12.97 million compared to PHP 7.12 million a year ago.
For the nine months, sales was PHP 1.16 million. Revenue was PHP 58.65 million compared to PHP 7,970.28 million a year ago. Net loss was PHP 22.65 million compared to net income of PHP 5,943.54 million a year ago. Basic loss per share from continuing operations was PHP 0.01 compared to basic earnings per share from continuing operations of PHP 1.63 a year ago.

2. Philippine Infradev's net loss widens as expenses jump

 
May 18, 2022PHILIPPINE Infradev Holdings, Inc. announced on Tuesday that its attributable net loss for the first quarter of the year widened to P11.24 ...
 
Business Summary
Philippine Infradev Holdings Inc. is a Philippines-based real estate development company. The Company is primarily engaged in the acquisition, reclamation, development, or exploitation of lands for the purpose of converting and developing said lands to integrated residential or commercial neighborhoods, and generally to engage in real estate business in all its forms. It operates through two segments: Real estate and Subway. The Real estate segment focuses on the development and sale of real properties. Subway segment focuses on the Subway System Project. Its properties include Binangonan property, Eastridge Property and Makati property and the PPP JV Agreement. Binangonan Property is located in the Municipality of Binangonan, Province of Rizal and covers approximately 2,200-hectare. The Eastridge project is focused on developing a mix of condominium and townhouses within a 1.34-hectare property also in its Binangonan property.
 
Number of employees : 25 people.
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VIABLE? I am wondering if this project is actually moving forward

Exclusive Interview with Ms. Georgina Monsod – Executive VP & COO of Philippine InfraDev Holdings

Join us for an exclusive interview with the Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer of Philippine InfraDev Holdings Inc., Ms. Georgina Monsod, as she shares how their company started from a mining company into one of the rising real estate ventures in the Philippines. Let's take a closer look on their current and future projects and developments.

𝗚𝗘𝗧 𝗔 𝗖𝗢𝗣𝗬 𝗢𝗙 "𝗜𝗡𝗩𝗘𝗦𝗧𝗠𝗘𝗡𝗧 𝗜𝗡 𝗧𝗛𝗘 𝗣𝗛𝗜𝗟𝗜𝗣𝗣𝗜𝗡𝗘𝗦 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟮" 𝗕𝗬 𝗛𝗜𝗧𝗢𝗦𝗛𝗜 𝗛𝗔𝗥𝗥𝗬 𝗜𝗘𝗠𝗨𝗥𝗔 𝗡𝗢𝗪 𝗔𝗩𝗔𝗜𝗟𝗔𝗕𝗟𝗘 𝗢𝗡 𝗔𝗠𝗔𝗭𝗢𝗡 𝗞𝗜𝗡𝗗𝗟𝗘: https://www.amazon.co.jp/INVESTMENT-P...

𝗔𝗕𝗢𝗨𝗧 𝗧𝗛𝗘 𝗔𝗨𝗧𝗛𝗢𝗥 Hitoshi "Harry" Iemura, who has been engaged in overseas businesses through real estate development, business development, deal makings and structuring for many years, has focused on the Philippines, a country with high potential for economic growth over the next 20 to 30 years. He analyzes Philippine economy and business from various angles such as real estate, stock market, permanent residency, human resources, special economic zones, and business advancement. This book provides an in-depth analysis of the basics of the Philippine economy.

 
 
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  • drbubb changed the title to RISE /AIR, the Makati Subway, INFRA & the Three BIG SISTERS

AONE is a potential Development at the Makati Subway station - described in the interview=

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VIDEO : AOne Tower | by Makati City Subway Inc. near Makati Med

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