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ETHE, Ethereum at a Discount. +HIVE, RIOT (Miners)

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Updated BTC vs. Crypto-3

CRY3: 2023: Oct'23: 10d: Bitcoin miners are catching-up with BTC, esp. MARA

pUH5dBh.gif

CRY3:  

B2arbOh.gif

CRYM3: 5d BTC: $38.68k /Riot ($12.86,3.01k), Mara ($12.38,3.12k), Hive ($3.15,12.3k) @11.28.23

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HIVE RATIO may be bottoming... on lower channel

Nov-25: HIVE ($2.94 +0.07) to BTC ($37.77k): Ratio= x1000= 7.78%

YbF2jKs.png

Oct-28:  HIVE ($2.94 -0.14) to BTC ($34.06k): Ratio= x1000= 8.64%

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Hive-to-Riot ratio, late Nov.23

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Hive expects 2024 bitcoin halving to cut production

2023-10-08 00:38 ET - News Release

Mr. Frank Holmes reports

HIVE EXPANDS AND INNOVATES WITH 4X BITCOIN GROWTH FROM THE QUEBEC ACQUISITION IN 2020 TO MINE BITCOIN FROM HYDRO-ELECTRICITY AND RECYCLE THE ENERGY TO HEAT ADJACENT MANUFACTURING BUILDING

Hive Digital Technologies Ltd. has provided an update on its expansion strategy leading up to the 2024 bitcoin halving. In April of 2024, the bitcoin halving will occur, cutting daily mining production to approximately 450 bitcoin per day from 900 per day.

Executive chairman Frank Holmes stated: "When the 2020 halving happened, it caused significant disruptions in the industry. Hive seized the opportunity by acquiring large bitcoin mining operations at significant discounts because much of the industry was overleveraged. We could see a similar situation unfold over the next six months, and if it does, Hive will be ready."

Hive's Lachute, Que., bitcoin mining facility is an excellent example of Hive's strategic acquisitions around the 2020 halving. The Lachute operation was acquired in the spring of 2020. The property is located in a cool climate with plentiful and low-cost renewable energy. Since the acquisition, Hive has continually upgraded the mining hardware and expanded the facility.

Rami Janashvili, who built Lachute from its origins in 2016, built the facility to be the largest crypto mine in Canada at the time, during the Bitmain S9 Antminer miner era, with 18,000 S9 miners operating.

He is a former Israeli military parachutist, and today, he still enjoys the study and challenge of aerodynamics with his collection of giant-scale remote control airplanes. He has developed an immersion mining system at the Lachute facility. In addition to this, his team has built out the heat recycling system, where the heat energy from the bitcoin mining operation is used to warm a neighbouring facility, an approximately 200,000-square-foot swimming pool manufacturing building.

He expressed warmly: "Everything is teamwork, and that is where the success comes from. I'm very proud of my team, and we have increased Lachute from 500 petahashes per second earlier this year to over one exahash per second now."

Aydin Kilic, president and chief executive officer of Hive, said of the Lachute purchase: "In the month of September, 2023, we hit a milestone, where our facility in Lachute, Que., surpassed one EH/s of bitcoin mining capacity. This is a landmark achievement as Hive initially acquired this 30-megawatt facility in 2020, when it had a hash rate of approximately 250 PH/s. Therefore, we are very proud to see Lachute quadruple its hash rate under Hive's ownership, with the original team kept intact. This is a testament of our company culture of excellence, where we strive to seamlessly integrate our operations globally, allowing to be a top-performing bitcoin miner. Additionally, this is now the second facility Hive operates, which is over one EH/s, the other being our facility in New Brunswick."

Mr. Holmes added: "As the halving approaches, Hive will continue to make opportunistic investments, such as the 1,000 Bitmain S19k Pro miners we announced on Oct. 6, 2023, but we're only buying at prices that we expect to have rapid [return on investment], preferably prehalving. We've done a good job at maintaining discipline and will continue that trend."

HIVE’s BTC production
===: 2022: 2023:  '24 :  Hash: /exa:
Jan :   264 : 260 : === : 2.68 : 110b :
Feb :   244 : 250 : === : 2.75 :  91.b :
Mar :   279 : 282 : === : 3.36 :  91.b.:
 Q.1 :   787 :  792 :  === :  === :
 Q.1 :   787 : 792 :  === :  === :
Apr. :   269 : 273 : === : 3.38 :  81 b.:
May:   273 :  302 : === : 
Jun :   279 :  259 : === : 3.38 : 77 b.:
 Q.2 :   821 :  834 :  === : === :
 1 H : 1608: 1627 :
July:   280 :  263 :  === : 3.46 : 76.0 b.:
Aug :  290 :  274 :  === :  3.67 : 64.6 b
Sep :  269 :  270. : === :  3.83 : 70.5 b.
 Q.3 : 839 :  807 :  === : === :
Oct :  307 :  266. :  === : 3.94 : 67.5 b.
Nov :  264 :
Dec :  214  :
 Q.4 :  785 : 800e v
Yr.  : 3232: 3,230e

/mo:  269 : 270E: HighValues. =Recent=
==== Ye’21 Ye’22 H’23: H’22: 5/12: 10.27
HIVE. 2.64 : 1.44 : 26.8: 2.83:  6.64:  2.94:
ShOS: 80.0: 82.7 : 80.0: 82.7 : 84.0:  85.5:
MCap: 211. : 119. : 2144: 234 : 559.:  251.: inUS$
BTC : 46.3 : 16.5 :  62.0: 26.8: 31.45: 34.0: price
Prod. at 3.2k, 270 btc
Pr.Val. 12.5 : 4.46: 16.74: 7.24: 8.49 : 9.18 : /mon
Mos. : 16.9 : 26.7 :  128:  32.2: 66.4 : 27.3 : Hive
Hodl: 1800: 2372 : === : ===:  ??? :
Net. : 2800: 4828:
AdjM. 16.9 : 26.7:  128: 32.2: 66.4: 27.3: Hive
>5’24: === : 17.0 : 24.0: 11.0 :   8.4 :   5.0 :
2xrem: N/M: 19.4 : 208: 42.4:  116. :  44.6:
AdjTtl  16.9: 36.4 : 232: 33.4:  196. : 49.6:

Hodl: 1800: 2372: === : ===:  ??? :
Net. : 2800: 4828:
Mos.:  10.4 :  17.9 :

At the beginning of 2023, you could BUY Hive at only 26.7 months of production.  When HIVE was $4.10 at 5/11, it was up to 40.5 months of production.

At yrH on July.13th, when HIVE was $6.64, it was an astonishing 64.6 months.

CALC, 07.13.23, Thu:
MktCap: $6.64 x84m sh.= $558M / btc- $31.45k = 17.74 btc
Prod, 270 x $31.45x = $8.49M  = 64.6 months

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drbubb Mentor

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HIVE produced 1% of Bitcoin Production

Hive Digital produces 269.5 bitcoin in September / 30d= 8.98 btc/ d.

2023-10-06 09:20 ET - News Release

Mr. Aydin Kilic reports

HIVE DIGITAL PROVIDES SEPTEMBER 2023 PRODUCTION UPDATE AND PURCHASE OF 1,000 S19K PRO ASICS

Hive Digital Technologies Ltd. has released the unaudited production figures from the company's global bitcoin operations for the month of September, 2023, with 269.5 bitcoin produced in September. The company has maintained over 3.83 exahashes of bitcoin mining capacity on average for September, 2023, including ASIC and GPU BTC hash rate (all amounts in U.S. dollars, unless otherwise indicated).

Summary overview:

  • Hive produced 269.5 bitcoin in the month of September, from ASIC and GPU mining operations, representing an average of 70 bitcoin per exahash, with an average hash rate of 3.83 EH/second for the month of September, 2023.
  • Hive produced an average of nine BTC per day in September, 2023.
  • Hive ended the month with 3.98 EH/s of mining capacity, including ASIC and GPU BTC hash rate, an 8.3-per-cent month-over-month increase.

Bitcoin halving strategy

Frank Holmes, executive chairman of the company, stated: "Hive was the first publicly listed crypto miner, listing on the TSX-V in 2017, and since then we skillfully and successfully navigated the last halving event in 2020, and additionally the bear markets of 2019, 2020 and 2022. Our team's track record, couple with our fiscal prudence, puts us in a strong position to weather the halving event next April. Our focus is to maximize ROI on bitcoin mining ASICs we purchase now, by making strategic acquisitions of only the very best offers in the market."

Mr. Holmes continued: "For example, we made a series of Bitmain S19 jPro purchases in Q4 2022, and thus far they have already made an ROI of between approximately 80 and 105 per cent after accounting for electrical costs. Thus some of these investments are already free cash flowing, and the remainder soon will be as well." The company notes this variance in return on investment is accounted for by purchase price and delivery date.

Mr. Holmes added: "We're laser-focused on acquiring high-efficiency bitcoin mining rigs at the best possible price. Hive produced an average of nine bitcoin per day in September, which is exactly 1 per cent of total bitcoin network block reward average of 900 bitcoin per day. We're doing this as a clean, green-energy-focused bitcoin miner.

> https://www.stockwatch.com/News/Item/Z-C!HIVE-3463971/C/HIVE

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BTC: $37.56k.  HIVE ($3.13, 8.33%), RIOT ($10.36, 27.6%) are Lagging. 10d:

was: $36.00k.  HIVE ($3.09, 8.58%), RIOT ($10.21, 28.4%), w/IREN ($2.96, 8.22%)4XlCS4m.gif

10d:

4AiuvWc.gif

===

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  • webmaster changed the title to ETHE, Ethereum at a Discount. +HIVE, RIOT (Miners)
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Does CRYM3 Pay?
CRYM3: 10d BTC: $38.68k /Riot ($12.86,3.01k), Mara ($12.38,3.12k), Hive ($3.15,12.3k) @11.28.23

9.05.23:  BTC: $25.76k /Riot ($11.04, 2.33k), Mara ($12.00, 2.15k), Hive ($3.47, 7.42k)

" RIOT LAGS BTC by about One Month "

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Call Spread:
Riot (12.86), 12/21 C, jan.19th
Jan.$12C: 0.86: $2.26-2.32: 2.29:  TV: 1.43,  11.1 %
Jan.$21C: 0.00:  $0.41-0.44: 0.43: TV: 0.43, 3.34%  
Net.21-12: 0.86 6.69%=1.86: 14.5%   + 1.00 ... 
x50= $9,300 /$60k= 8.83% x $9.3k /$45k  (20.7% of Max.)
 
RIOT UPDATED... 
Call Spread:. Jan. 19th. Exp.
Date:  RIOT : ITM: $12C: $21C: Spread: Ratio: /Riot:  x50.$V:  BTC-k:  V/%B : Net$
11.28: 12.86: 0.86: 2.39 : 0.43 :  $1.86 : 5.56x: 14.5%: $ 9,300: $38.68: 24.0%: 6.58k
12.01: 13.77:  1.77:  2.85 : 0.53 : $2.32 : 5.37x: 16.8%: $11,600: $39.29: 29.5%: 10.0k
12.08: 15.83: 3.83: 4.37 : 0.87 : $3.50 : 5.02x: 221.%: $17,500: $45.00: 38.9%: 19.2k
====
x50= $ 9,300 /38.68= 24.0% &$ 9.3k /$45k  (20.7% of Max.)
x50= $11,600 /39.29= 29.5% &$11.6k /$45k  (25.8% of Max.)
x50= $17,500 /45.00= 38.9% &$17.5k /$45k  (38.9% of Max.)
====
HIVE... 
: Put: Dec.15th,  Calls: Jan. 19th. Exp.
Date: HIVE : ITM: $4P:  $4C: Spread: Ratio:  /Hive:  $Value:  BTC-k:  V/%B
11.28: $3.15:(0.85) 0.92 : 0.15: ($0.77):-6.13x:-14.4%:($3,080) $38.68:-7.96%
12.01: $3.47:(0.51) 0.65 : 0.25: ($0.40):-2.60x:-11.5%:($1,600) $39.29:-4.07%
12.08 $4.20: 0.20: 0.25 : 0.67: $0.42: +2.68x:+10.0%: $1,680:  $45.00: 3.77% :$v-$0
12.08 $4.20: 0.51 0.80/4 0.67: $0.47: +3.35x: +11.2%: $1,680:  $45.00: 3.77% -$200
====
x40= $1,680 /45.00= 3.77% & $1.7k /$16k ( 10.5% of Exer.)
 
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The BOLD Strategy:  Gold vs. Bitcoin: BOLD Index plays off strengths of both assets

3.jpg
(Kitco News) - As the debate between traditionalists who prefer gold as the established store of value and the younger investing crowd who see Bitcoin (BTC) as gold 2.0 rages on, some have noted that there is plenty of room for both to exist, and the Vinter ByteTree BOLD1 Index (BOLD) shows that there are profits to be made in the compromise.
The BOLD1 index was designed to take Bitcoin and Gold, the world’s two most liquid alternative assets, and combine them on a risk-adjusted basis. “Due to their natural low correlation, the diversification benefits of holding both assets have been unusually high,” said ByteTree analyst Charlie Morris. “Bitcoin prefers risk-on market conditions, while gold prefers risk-off.”
. . . As a result of the declining volatility, Bitcoin’s weight in BOLD has increased from 25.1% to 25.3% over the past month. The remaining 74.7% is allocated to gold.

“The current Bitcoin weight is high by historical standards, and has been rising as volatility has been falling,” Morris said...

He said the BOLD strategy manages risk with an inverse volatility weighting methodology and helps to add value over time. “Each month, the rebalancing process sells the stronger asset and reinvests the proceeds into the weaker asset. This buy low, sell high approach accumulates the weaker asset over time.”

Morris said that BOLD has served as “a gold accumulation strategy” since 2018, reducing its Bitcoin by 18% but increasing its gold holdings by 38%.

REBALANCING :        “An investor who put $1,000,000 into BOLD in 2018 would have started with 162 bitcoins and 1,756 ounces of gold,” he said. “By November 2023, that investor now has 134 bitcoins and 2,430 ounces of gold.”

134 x $39k = xx + 2,430 x $2,070 = xx / Combined: 

Between the Bitcoin peak in Nov. 2021 and the low in Nov. 2022, the above scenario would have seen BTC holdings increase from 77 BTC to 231 BTC, while gold would have declined from 2,625 ounces to 2,104 ounces.

“The gold quantity had reduced by 20%, but the Bitcoins held grew threefold,” Morris said. “That meant BOLD held ample Bitcoin at the start of the bull market this year. Had the investor not rebalanced, they would have held 93% in Gold and 7% in Bitcoin at the beginning of 2023 and returned 20% instead of BOLD’s 34%.”

“This demonstrates the power of rebalancing, but make no mistake, if you are certain which asset will win in the future, then that asset will beat BOLD,” he said. “The trouble with that is we might think we know which asset will be the strongest, but we don’t.”

... This last chart, showing BOLD vs. Money Supply may capture its strategic value

7.jpg

STRATEGIC VALUE:      “The outlook for both Bitcoin and gold is encouraging,” Morris concluded. “Investors are underweight, and both assets have good momentum behind them. We are living in an uncertain world, and after two years of a shrinking money supply, as the central bankers hike interest rates, it seems likely this will reverse. At least that is the message from BOLD, which appears to be forecasting the money supply growth to resume.”> https://www.kitco.com/news/2023-12-01/Gold-vs-Bitcoin-BOLD-Index-plays-off-strengths-of-both-assets.html

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Updated BTC vs. CRY-3

CRY3: 2023:  Oct'23: 10d: Bitcoin miners are catching-up with BTC, esp. MARA

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CRY3:  

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OLD:

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HIVE: 2023: YTD: 6mo: 10d: $4.25 > $3.41 last, -20%; twice as volatile as BTC

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RIOT: 2023: YTD: 6mo: 10d: $16.00 > $14.06 last, -12%, almost 1.5x as volatile.  Filled gap up

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BTC Futs: last: $41,705

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BTC's GAP up is not filled yet.  Honestly, I don't know what is coming next.  But I want to stay flexible, and am glad I took some money off the table in that last shot up.  My remaining position is almost all Call options with limited risk

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10d - Outperformance by HIVE could be a sign of the rally's last phase.

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HIVE DIGITAL ANNOUNCES $25 MILLION BOUGHT DEAL PRIVATE PLACEMENT FINANCING TO HODL OUR BITCOIN PRODUCTION AND EXPAND GREEN MINING FOOTPRINT BY 100MW

Mr. Frank Holmes reports

Hive Digital Technologies Ltd. has entered into an agreement with Stifel Canada and Canaccord Genuity as co-lead underwriters and joint bookrunners, whereby the underwriters will purchase, on a bought deal basis, five million special warrants of the company at a price of $5 per special warrant for aggregate gross proceeds to the company of $25-million. The completion of the offering will be subject to receipt of all necessary regulatory and corporate approvals or consents.

The company will grant the underwriters an option to increase the size of the offering by up to an additional 15 per cent of the special warrants sold under the offering, exercisable in whole or in part, at any time and from time to time up to 48 hours prior to the closing date (as hereinafter defined).

Each special warrant shall entitle the holder thereof to receive, subject to adjustment in certain circumstances and the penalty provision (as defined below), and without payment of additional consideration, one unit of the company upon the exercise or deemed exercise of each special warrant. Each unit shall consist of one common share of the company and one-half of one common share purchase warrant. Each warrant will entitle the holder thereof to purchase one common share of the company at a price of $6 per warrant share for a period of 36 months following the closing of the offering

> more:  https://www.stockwatch.com/News/Item/Z-C!HIVE-3494816/C/HIVE

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BITO: $20.49, -0.33, -1.59% / BTC:  $42.25k -$250

MARA: $23.49 -4.63, -16.4%; RIOT: $15.47 -2.13, -12.1%, HIVE: $4.53 -0.81, - 15.2%

0Lqo4cQ.gif

Shares of crypto miner Marathon Digital Holdings fell nearly 18% to as low as $23.07 on Friday afternoon, putting the stock on pace for its worst day since Jan. 18 after logging an impressive rally earlier this month.

Marathon’s stock MARA rebounded slightly over the course of the afternoon session, but was still down 16% to $23.60 as of 3:30 p.m. Eastern time, according to FactSet data.

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BTC is still in an uptrend, and may carry RIOT (& HIVE) with it

/ BTC: $43.70k .. RIOT: $15.86, 36.3%,  HIVE: $4.35, 9.95%, MARA: $26.27, 60.1%

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====

RIOT, closed at $15.86 +0.82
12C : +25x : $4.12:  +$10,300, 
21C : -50x : $0.54:    (  2,700)
====  NET: $3.58:    $ 7,600:
Have already extracted over $30K in profits in 2023 from similar trades.
Starting stake in Ja’23: <$10K.
The $21C will decay to $0 in 2 weeks, if RIOT fails to trade
over $21. That is +32% higher. I will likely take profits soon,
and roll the money into a March or June Spread.

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Is RIOT STILL A BUY in 2024?

KEY POINTS

Bitcoin mining stocks such as Riot Platforms are highly cyclical, due to the cyclical nature of Bitcoin itself.
  •  
    The Bitcoin halving event in April could put intense pressure on all Bitcoin miners by cutting mining rewards in half.
  •  
    Riot Platforms's shares exploded during the last Bitcoin halving cycle, but past performance is no guarantee of future results.
  •  
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Updating above - Possible HIGH in place?

BTC: 52,190.00 +$185. recent H: $52,855:

6T4FTGk.gif

RIOT : $16.45 -0.08, recent H: $18+

S60Ghns.gif

HIVE : $4.41 -0.06, recent H: $4.58

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== Headline sounds Negative:

Bitcoin stalls below $52k, analyst predicts 20-40% correction

The crypto market showed signs of exhaustion in trading on Friday as Bitcoin (BTC) bulls lacked the momentum to muster a breakout above $53,000. At the same time, sticky inflation had investors across financial markets reevaluating their plans moving forward now that it looks like the Fed may not cut interest rates until June at the earliest. 

“I don't understand why people are surprised that PPI and CPI came in hotter than expected. Inflation has been running hot for the past few months,”

===

 

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The upward rise of Bitcoin (BTC-USD) continues apace, and it doesn’t seem like it can be stopped. It gained another 6% on Tuesday and managed to clear the $60,000 mark. Bitcoin’s rise has lifted several other cryptocurrencies and stocks, but one stock that didn’t get helped much was Bitcoin miner Riot Platforms (NASDAQ:RIOT), which is down over 2% in Wednesday morning’s trading.

...

Here's What Brokers Think Of Riot Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ:RIOT) After Its Yearly Report

It's been a good week for Riot Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ:RIOT) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest full-year results, and the shares gained 8.3% to US$17.37. Revenues of US$281m came in a modest 2.7% below forecasts. Statutory losses were a relative bright spot though, with a per-share loss of US$0.28 coming in a substantial 71% smaller than what the analysts had expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Riot Platforms after the latest results.

... 

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$18.55, suggesting that reduced loss estimates are not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Riot Platforms at US$26.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$11.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

> https://finance.yahoo.com/news/analyst-estimates-heres-brokers-think-190107466.html

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BTC Futures: $67,930.Cijbldk.gif

RIOT: $12.12, Ap12C:2.00 (16.5%) -Ap21C:0.67 (5.52%): N: $1.33 (11.0%) /IV $0.12=11.08x

AdXAQx2.gif

HIVE: $3.45, Mr12C:2.00 (16.5%) -Mr21C:0.67 (5.52%): N: $1.33 (11.0%) /IV $0.12=11.08x

azXwAuZ.gif

MARA: 22.62, Ap22C:4.62 (20.4%) -Ap38C:1.66 (7.34%): N: $2.96 (13.1%) /IV $0.62= 4.77x

Alt#2: 22.62. Ap25C: 3.68 (16.3%) -Ap45C:1.25 (5.52%): N: $2.43 (10.7%) /IV $0.00= Infin.

Alt#3: 22.62. Je25C: 5.78 (25.6%) -Je45C:2.95 (13.0%): N: $2.83 (12.5%) /IV $0.00= Infin.

gW9tOUE.gif

Alt#4: 22.62. Je23C: 6.32 (27.9%) -Je34C:4.05 (17.9%): N: $2.27 (10.0%) R:156%

MARA Options:

Sell: 16x Jun$34C: 4.05. Buy: 10x Jun$23C: 6.32 =    (6,480 -6,320= +$160)

Apr. 16x $34C: BB: (2.06), + Sell  10x $23C $4.28 = (-3,296 +4,280= +$984)

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