webmaster Posted July 5 Report Share Posted July 5 ALL-in PODCAST has Meet-up in Manila next week (THU, 4-6pm) FREE to attend. people wanted, and Host needed (I have signed up, am 1 of 4, so far) ( If I can get some "backing" - ie, other people to attend, I may apply to be the Host of the Manila event. ) All-In Summer Meetup, Manila (July 11th, Thu. ) all-in-jun-2024 > https://app.getriver.io/events/all-in-meetup-june-manila-philippines-4em Recent All-in Podcast (in next panel.) Ideas for meetups: 🌓 Host a friendly debate on a topic the pod has covered 🃏 Play a private game of poker 🏓 Try something active like Pickleball or lawn games 🍷 Meet at a local coffee shop, bar, or park (byob) Join the All-In Meetups Slack to connect with people in your city. https://bit.ly/all-in-meetups-slack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
webmaster Posted July 6 Report Share Posted July 6 The ALL IN PODCAST is a Huge Hit./ These four guys are wealthy and successful entrepreneurs from Silicon Valley, who have a regular insightful podcast that discusses economic and political issues. They come from different parts of the political spectrum: One liberal. One conservative. One in the middle, and on I cannot figure out (yet). While they often disagree, they treat each other with respect, and the arguments are normally rooted in logic. A good model for us all, They recently had ex-President Trump join for interview, and he took several sharp questions. / Hot Swap growing, donors revolt, President Kamala? SCOTUS breakdown: Immunity, Chevron, Censorship === Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
webmaster Posted July 10 Report Share Posted July 10 PAIRS Trading Suggestions: LTG vs. PSEI, & other "potential PSEI proxies" updated LTG (9.96, .151%), AEV (35.45, .53%) / PSEI-6,605 ... AGI (9.12, .138%) LTG (P9.50+0.10): PER: 4.04, EPS: 2.35, Div: 1.20, Yield: 12.63% / BV: 19.64=48.4%, R: 8.50 to 10.48 / Psei (6,489 -1.03%) = Ratio: 1.46%, ... and PSEI Leads most moves. +AC (P573) / Psei (6,489) = R- 8.83% AC (P590)/Psei (6,681)=R8.83%; ALI (31.60 5.36% AC) AReit (37.25 6.31%); ACEN (4.79, 0.81%) 10d FPH (63.5)/ Psei (6,489)= 8.83%; PER: 1.98, EPS: 32.1, Div: 2.20. Yield: 3.46%, R: 58.5-66.0 LPZ ( 3.13)/ Psei (6,489)= 0.05%; PER: 5.04, EPS: 0.62, Div: 0.10. Yield: 3.19%, R: 3.10-4.75 AGI (P9.50+0.10): PER: 4.04, EPS: 2.35, Div: 1.20, Yield: 12.63% / BV: 19.64=48.4%, R: 8.50 to 10.48 / Psei (6,489 -1.03%) = Ratio: 1.46%, compare: JFC (P227, x%), MCD ($255, x%) AEV (36.45-0.80): PER: 8.38, EPS: 2.35, Div: 1.20, Yield: 3.84% / BV: ???? =00.0%, R: 35.0 to 55.5 / Psei (6,678) = Ratio: 0.55%, compare: AP (34.55, 0.52%), UBP (36.05, 0.54%) ... 10d Sym. : Company : Last : PER: Yield : B.V. : %-BV: Range : AEV : Aboitiz Eq.Vent: 36.80: 8.47: 3.80% 48.39: 76.0% 35.1-56.0 AP : Aboitiz Power : 22.90: 7.39: 6.78% 25.00: 91.6% 29.4-39.6 UBP : Union Bank Phl.: 33.70: 12.8: 2.37% 58.95: 57.2% 32.9-58.8 Psei : PSE Index : 6,623: 11.0x 3.%? ??? 5920-7,071 ==== Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
webmaster Posted July 13 Report Share Posted July 13 GOLD / Barrick Gold: $18.52 +0.39 PER: 22.5, Yield: 2.16%, R: 13.76-18.95, BV: xx GOLD is lagging GDX and UGL (2x Gold) This one (ARIS.t : C$6.18) has rise +123% from 2023 Low (2.77) and caught up with GDX == Using Options: limited RISK, more leverage Date == : GOLD : Intr.V : Sep$13C* Dec$13C: Jan$13C: 05.03.24 : $16.46: $3.46 : = = : $4.02 : $4.21 : June ’24 : $16.25: $3.20 : $ 3.52 : = = : = = : 07.12.24 : $18.52: $5.52 : $ 5.70 : $5.80 : $5.90 : + chg, : +12.5%: +59% : +61.9% +44.3% +40.1% : 07.26.24 : $17.79: $4.79 : $ 4.85 : $4.95 : $5.00 : + chg, : +8.08% +38% : +37.8% +23.1% +18.8% : : ===== Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
webmaster Posted July 13 Report Share Posted July 13 AIRBNB investing and "the LAND hack" How he TURNED $100K into $2.5M with 4 Cabins === 1,597,099 views Oct 9, 2022 👉🏼 Watch my full land training video here: https://kaiandrew.com/free-training-l... There are ways of generating a lot of money with real estate with relatively low investments. Like how this guy built four cabins with $100k and they are now worth over $2,000,000. Real estate is more than just location. It's about opportunity and knowing what the strategy is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
webmaster Posted July 15 Report Share Posted July 15 PSEI vs. Philippines Model Portfolio Time : PSEI : chg. : Port.G/Ls : Beat : Ye’20: 7,140: - 8.64%: +25.20%: +33.84% Ye’21: 7,335: + 2.73%: + 7.94%: + 5.21% Ye’22: 6,566: -10.48%: + 9.10%: +19.58% Ye’23: 7,140 : - 1.77%: + 9.05%: +10.82% = Average: -4.54% +12.82% +17.36% = 2021-23: -3.17%: +8.70%: +11.87% ==== Time : PSEI : chg. : Port.G/Ls : Beat : Cum’l From ye’23 Year to Date : Jan.: 6,646: + 3.04%: +2.43%: - 0.61% Feb.: 6,892: + 6.85%: +4.32%: - 2.53% Mar.: 6,904: + 7.04%: +10.30%: +3.26% Apr.: 6,700: + 3.88%: +14.27%: +10.39% May: 6,433: - 0.26%: +15.77%: +16.03% Jun.: 6,412: - 0.59% +17.41%: +18.00% Ave.: -0.59%: - 0.10%: + 2.90%: +3.00%/mo. ==== PSEI chg. : Port.G/Ls : Beat : Ave:’20-my24:- 3.75%: +13.74%: +17.49% p.a. YTD : 07.12 : 6,648: +3.07%: +17.78%: 14.71% ==== : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
webmaster Posted July 16 Report Share Posted July 16 Rally in PSEI-"proxies" is underway AGI (9.00, x%) / PSEI-6,720, AC (596, x%), AEV (37.1, x%), JGS (27.9, x%) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
webmaster Posted July 20 Report Share Posted July 20 BTC-f-($67.3k): > 10d: MARA (24.73) / Bito (23.54) = 105%, RIOT (12.03, 51%) : CSpdP: $69.7k=104% BTC vs. CALL Spreads Port. (CSprP) Date : BTC : CSprP: Ratio : Mara : Riot : EndApr: 60.6k 26.9k: 44.4% 16.06: 10.11 : EndMay 62.0k 33.0k: 53.2% 19.52: $9.74: EndJun. 61.0k: 45.7k: 74.9% 19.85: $9.14: Jul.18th 67.3k: 69.7k 104.% 24.73: 12.03: + Chg. +11.1% +159% ==== +54% +19% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
webmaster Posted July 22 Report Share Posted July 22 Future upside in PHL shs- per BDO... I now have several of these: : > 40% : 20-40% : 10-20%: AC +44% FGen+24%: AEV +45% Mreit+36%: AGI +67% : Gcap 45% : JGS +67% : MEG+60% : VLL +67% : > 7/ of 14 : >2/ of 17 : >0/ of 10 No idea of what their track record is, I just noticed this report. Curious that my holdings from their list seems to be clustered in the Future Gains over 40% sector Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
webmaster Posted July 30 Report Share Posted July 30 PATIENCE may soon be rewarded. TLT/Bonds look set to break the Long Downtrend Cityland Group. So similar. But LAND is more volatile. Rising TLT Bonds should help CDC (0.74) / LAND (0.73)= 101.4% ... Jan22: Etc.'22: CDC : 0.74 : PER:4.92, EPS: 0.150, Div. 0.0477, Yield: 6.45%; BV: 1.73, 42.8% LAND: 0.73 : PER:8.49, EPS: 0.086, Div. 0.0338, Yield: 4.63%; BV: 1.76, 41.5% Some developer stocks are already moving higher. %CDC (0.74): LAND (0.73, 98.6%) SHNG (3.79, 5.12x), CPG (0.335, 45.3%), TLT ($93.5, 126x) === Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
webmaster Posted August 2 Report Share Posted August 2 "Psei Proxies" on Parade 8.01.24 /PSEI-6694: AGI ( 9.14, .13%), LTG (10.04, .15%), GTcap (600, 8.96%), JGS (28.05, .42%), AC (592, 8.84%) AEV (35.55, .53%) ... > YTD : Jun'24: 10d: YrE '24 /PSEI-6450: AGI (11.28, .17%), LTG (P8.98, .14%), GTcap (590, 9.14%), JGS (38.15, .59%), AC (681, 10.6%) AEV (44.60, .69%) weaker ones: / PSEI-6620, AC (590, 8.91%), AEV (35.60, .54%), JGS (27.35, .41%) / AEV (35.5); AP (33.55, 94.5%), UBP (35.95, 101.3%) ... 10d: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
webmaster Posted August 4 Report Share Posted August 4 Suggestion: BUY Bonds. Invest interest (of next 2-3yrs) in cheap options on Mining stocks Gold stock Examples: GLD at /$225: GOLD (17.91, 7.96%), BTG (2.85, 1.27%)... and EQX ($5.18, 2.30%) EQX Rally coming?: EQX: $5.18 -0.25, PER: n/a Y: n/a, R: 3.95-6.50 === Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
webmaster Posted August 9 Report Share Posted August 9 ROCK (P1.55) has a Rising Div.. PER: 2.92, EPS: 0.53, Div .101, Yield: 6.57% 28.5% BV: 5.43 SHNG: P3.75: PER: 2.68, EPS: 1.40, Div .290, Yield: 7.72% 39.3% BV: 9.54 CPG : P.315: PER: 2.42, EPS: .130, Div .024, Yield: 7.61% 17.5% BV: 1.80 CPG, (0.315) etc. ROCK (1.55), SHNG (3.75) === Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
webmaster Posted August 9 Report Share Posted August 9 STRAIGHT Lines versus CYCLES Some say: “Condo Prices Double every 10 Years” : / Check this out - seems Realistic. Big increase over 30 years RULE of 72’s Price Table Year /SqM 50sq R, 6% : ==== M’s /mon. : 2000 P50K 2.5 M 12,500 : 2005 70.8 3.54 17,698 : 2010 100.2 5.01 25,053 : 2015 141.9 7.09 35,468 : 2020 200.8 10.0 50,212 : 2022 230.8 11.5 57,703 : 2024 265.2 13.3 66,311 : 2026 304.8 15.2 76,203 : 2028 350.3 17.5 87,572 : 2030 402.5 20.1 100,636 : ==== Rule of 72: “the number of years required to double your money at a given annual rate of return” > https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/ruleof72.asp CYCLES : The 18 year Cycle is a better model than Straight Lines are Source: https://www.theflyingfrisby.com/p/why-house-prices-will-crash-in-2025 Below is My Old Cycles prediction for Philippines, from the Year of the TOP (2019) PHILIPPINES STOCK WARNING, made in late 2019 I posted on a viber chat: ( Posted October 24, 2019 ) "The more I look into the charts, the more Dangerous I think this setup looks!" PSEI - vs. SMPH, ALI, MEG > 8/2016: VIX: 10d / Last: 7,947, smph: 38.80, ali: 49.00, meg: 4.86 (agi: 11.74) Prop H.= Property Stock High, signaled by ALI and MEG in summer 2019 > See the Original chart in its time context on the BUBBLE thread An Update from ... from Jan. 2023. Charts of: FLI, ALI, SHNG, LAND ===== Note how: DANGER was evident by 2017. RENTS (3BR) did not keep up with Condo prices The last 2 years: 2018-2019 were Winners Curse period. Or was it since the end 2019 Peak? What kept the market going longer was the Huge demand (for smaller units) from POGOs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
webmaster Posted August 10 Report Share Posted August 10 Here's the thing.. In the "REAL" market, ie. the secondhand market, Property prices peaked about the end of 2019. and the correction is (still) being completed/ The price of NEW Condos did not follow that cycle, thanks to price manipulation by the Builders. And so the Cyclical Correction is playing out differently for new properties. The correction may well extend past, maybe years past, the "Ideal low" of end of 2024. And it may come at different times, for different sectors of the market. ( I want to discuss this at the Meetup today. ) Average PHL Builder stock... Still looking for a LOW. Maybe end 2024 === Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
webmaster Posted August 13 Report Share Posted August 13 Mohnish Pabrai: How To Earn A 25% Return Per Year (6 Investing Rules) === Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
webmaster Posted August 17 Report Share Posted August 17 US Treasury Rates drive Phil. Rates, and REIT dividend yields TNX / 10yr UST Note Rates, since 2019: 2010: Last: 39.26 /10= 3.926%, yrH: 4.997% TNX / 10yr UST Note Rates = 3.926%, yrH: 4.997% (TYX: 4.15%) Phl.Govt Rates: 5yr: 5.975% (+2.049% prem), 10yr: 6.048% (+2.122% prem.) - at 8.15.24 Phil Govt rates usually ride at maybe 2-2.50% above that. And Ave. REIT Divs maybe 0.50% higher still. So the TNX can give you a decent idea of the yields you will find in the PHL Market HISTORY : Apr.H : Jun.close, "As Fears ease", per Vantage commentary 10yr-UST : 4.8% : 4.4% : 3.926% at 8.15.24 5yr- RTB : 6.8% : 6.4% : 5.975%, at 8.15.24 Difference 2.0% : 2.0% 10y- RTB : 7.0% : 6.7% : 6.048% Diff- UST: 2.2% : 2.3%: 2.122% REITs (7.21%Y) vs. TLT (97.44), TYX (4.15%Y) : 2019: 2022: Jul'23: Expect 3% Premium Stock: Price: B.V.: %-BV: Qtr1 : Qtr2 : %chg. Q1 -: Q2 -: PER* Div: exDatelast: Div. (Yield) AReit 38.40: 35.3: 109.%: 1.45B: 1.42B -2.1.%: 0.61: 0.60: 31.7x .560, 07.25.24*= 2.23 (5.83%) FILrt : 3.06: 8.45: 36.2%: 304.M 297.M -2.3%: 0.06: 0.06: 25.5x .062, 08.22.24 = .102 (8.56%) MReit: 13.00: 18.7: 69.5%: 733.M 736.M +0.4%: 0.27: 0.26: 24.5x .247, 08.15.24 = .040 (7.58%) RCR : 5.74: 5.95: 96.5%: 1.15B : 1.15B +00.%: 0.10: 0.11 : 27.3x .099, 08.22.24 = .066 (6.87%) === 4 REITs Ave: 77.8%: Ave: - 1.0%: 27.3x Prem 3.06% < Ave.: 7.21% TLT : 97.44: 100? ==== yrE: 00.00 QtrE 00.00 00.00 TYX:41.49/10= 4.15% TNX/10:3.89% Builder Stocks, check the Earnings increases between Q1 and Q2 CPG, (0.315) etc. ROCK (1.55), SHNG (3.75) +MEG: ++VLL: Stock: Price: B.V.: %-BV: Qtr1 : Qtr2 : %chg. Q1 -: Q2 -: PER* Div: exDatelast: Div. (Yield) SHNG: 3.89: 9.70: 40.1%: 1.13B: 1.52B: +35.%: 0.24: 0.31: 7.07x .155, 04.03.24*= .289 (7.43%) ROCK: 1.49: 5.65: 26.4%: 0.67B 1.21B: +80.%: 0.12 : 0.20: 4.66x .102, 08.15.24, = .102 (6.85%) CPG : 0.34: 1.81 : 18.8%: 410.M 664M +62.%: 0.05: 0.03: 4.25x .016, 09.27,24*= .040 (11.8%) MEG : 1.82: 7.65: 23.8%: 4.40B 4.15B: -5.7 %: 0.14: 0.13 : 6.74x .066, 10.26.23, = .066 (3.63%) VLL : 1.45: 11.39 12.7%: 2.84B 2.55B: -10.% : 0.24: 0.21 : 3.22x .062, 10.13,23, = .063 (4.34%) CDC : 0.69: 1.74: 39.7%: 144.M ??? ??? : 0.03: ??? : ??? x .048 06.20.24, = .048 (6.96%) LAND: 0.73: 1.74: 42.0%: 13.1M: 41.4M +216% 0.00: 0.03: ??? x .034, 06.27.24, = .034 (4.66%) ALCO: 0.43: 1.19: 36.1%: 137.M 136.M -.73.%: 0.02: 0.01: 14.3x .012, 07.18.24, = .012 (2.79%) FLI : 0.64: 3.52: 18.2%: 845M 699M -17.3%: 0.03: 0.03: 10.7x .050, 05.10.24, = .050 (7.81%) SGI** 0.94: 6.63: 14.2%: 36.M 138M +283%: 0.02: 0.08: 9.40x .100, 07.12.24, = .100 (10.6%) ==== *two divs in last year / PER* on 6mos. EPS. **New addition, more than property Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
webmaster Posted August 18 Report Share Posted August 18 "Dumpster took the Heat" DDmpr (1.03) / PSEI (6,846) = .015% ... VLL (1.43), RCR (5.74) "Dumpster took the heat on the POGO news" DDmpr/ Double Dragon Reit had one of the biggest drops from the We-will-remove-Pogos news. But could be poised for some catch-up. Many believe that Pogos will redefine themselves and stay - "They have no where else to go." (And there are other categoies of classification they might use for at least some of their activities.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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