Steve Netwriter Posted September 22, 2008 Author Report Share Posted September 22, 2008 Triangular Arbitrage & the Gold/Silver Terminology Campaign Isn't gold priced in US$ ? This is quite a common question, and one I identify with, because when I started looking at gold & silver I also was told that they were priced in US$. It took me a while to get my head around what I think is the best way to think about this. Because it's a common question, I've created these. The first one is a basic 'law' of forex trading. Basically you can't sit there making money just by swapping US$ for GBP for Yen for US$ round and round in a circle. It would be nice, but alas This applies the same law to gold: I would like to encourage everyone to use this terminology, as I think the 'normal' one is based on mis-information created by those who would like everyone to think gold & silver are just commodities. I hope that helps you to appreciate that gold & silver are currencies in their own right. So if you live in the UK and think in GBP, then look at the movements of GBP against Gold. If the US$ goes down, to maintain the arbitrage triangle, the GBP and Gold must move appropriately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted October 3, 2008 Author Report Share Posted October 3, 2008 I'm not sure people realised that the last "campaign" poster was slightly tongue in cheek. But not completely It does make a point Apologies to gwizzie, I've not thanked you for your contribution, which is excellent When to Buy - Looking at Charts Here is an example looking back over the past decade. The problem is you can never know what is going to happen. But learning from the past can at least help to give you perspective. One way to view the gold market is by what % you expect it to change versus other currencies. During low inflation & high deposit rates, you can generally expect gold to perform badly. During high inflation & low deposit rates, you can expect gold to perform well. By looking at the yearly percentages, you can get an idea of whether the gold 'price' is on the high or low side of what you might expect. This is my interpretation of the way gold moves short-term during a bull market. But it never quite repeats the same way, just to keep you on your toes. And this from Jim Sinclair's website: Look at the volume. A price movement on a high volume means more money is involved, rather than a large price move based on one trade ! Follow the COT (Commitment Of Traders) reports on Jim's site: http://www.jsmineset.com/ Example: Follow the "Hourly Action In Gold From Trader Dan" on Jim's site: http://www.jsmineset.com/ Don't just watch the gold 'price'. You need to watch it against a number of other important currencies, like US$, GBP, Euro, JPY. Here is an excellent option for people without trading platforms: http://www.netdania.com/Products/ChartStat...artStation.aspx Also like this, which is an excellent way to compare the performance of various currencies: http://stockcharts.com/charts/performance/...;NZD,$gold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Belfast Posted October 10, 2008 Report Share Posted October 10, 2008 This thread has been awesome, thanks so much Steve! I have a question that hasn't been asked. For those that are self employed what kind of measures can be taken for insurance in the event of a bank collapse? My understanding is that if your bank was to collapse you still owe the taxman his money (this worries me) So I'm just wondering if it would be a good idea to buy more than your recommended 10% in PMs to cover tax liabilities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted October 10, 2008 Author Report Share Posted October 10, 2008 I'm really glad you find it useful :D The trouble is, if I'm not careful I start reading it myself. I find it somewhat hypnotic I think I've kinda covered that somewhere when I talk about what % to buy. Ah, here: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=3757 Again, just my views. I'm no expert. The normal amount of PMs to hold is supposed to be 5% to 10%. I read it again somewhere yesterday. Something like "in case of war, earthquake or other sudden massive unpredictable shocks" I've been saying "10% minimum, you're uninsured if you don't have that right now", simply because any loss on 10% is small compared with the benefit of having insurance. Here's a later post: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....ost&p=53432 Now I realise I seem to have omitted this Krassimir Petrov - Investment Analysis (part 3) - 32 min - Apr 9, 2008 http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=976700141486118374 (75MB) 5% to 10% gold - to create a diversified portfolio. 10% to 15% - a more balanced portfolio in the current inflationary environment. 20% to 40% - a more aggressive portfolio. 50 to 80% - if you are expecting a crisis. (Krassimir Petrov holds about 50% bullion. Nothing else. No counter-party risk.) I don't feel confident in answering the tax question. But I strongly suspect the answer will be the one that's worst for you ! Have you considered paying tax in advance ? I know it's not "the done thing", but I don't think there is anything to stop you. If it is a serious threat, then why not ? I try very hard not to suggest more than 10%. As I've said many times, I think when it's more than that it should be a self-researched decision. That doesn't mean I am suggesting only 10%. I want to make that clear. But, lets put it this way, I agree with Krassimir on this point: 50 to 80% - if you are expecting a crisis. And if this is not a crisis, what is ?! I personally feel a LOT happier about my PM investments than my fiat money ones (which I consider high risk, and do worry me). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Belfast Posted October 10, 2008 Report Share Posted October 10, 2008 Thanks for the lengthy reply Steve! To be honest a few weeks ago I thought 20% would be a lot in PMs but now 50% looks like a better idea (Perhaps along with a big stock pile of food and any other essentials/bartering goods like cigarettes etc That may be a good idea about paying tax early, I'll look into that one for sure! I think like always, it boils down to DYOR and come to your own conclusions. Always nice to hear from those who are better informed than a newbie like myself on these issues so thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Profhit Posted October 17, 2008 Report Share Posted October 17, 2008 I like this site for simplicity and updated source of macro/readings http://mining101.blogspot.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Profhit Posted August 7, 2009 Report Share Posted August 7, 2009 Lithium battery grant by US president Obama - 2.4% billion for research and development...can ou say this is where the direction of automotives is going!!É! Invest in lithium - Im long International Lithium (TNR:TSX) and up 120% since last Oct. For folks who invested in Jan theyd be up 500%+ http://mining101.blogspot.com/2009/08/obam...initiative.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Profhit Posted August 14, 2009 Report Share Posted August 14, 2009 No time to write - Byron Securities From 0.04 to $0.35 today- 2 million shares traded I wish most of you followed my advice LOL!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Profhit Posted August 14, 2009 Report Share Posted August 14, 2009 http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/...html?id=1889996 http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1214209086&play=1 Byron Analyst quoted in National Post & CNBC.. ___ and guess who bought msot of the financing today...no wonder its up on 4 million shares traded last 2 days!!! 16 projects, 3 brines, Nevada & Argentina...doesn't get better than this! August 14th, 2009 TNR GOLD CLOSES $500,000 FLOWTHROUGH PRIVATE PLACEMENT Vancouver B.C.:TNR Gold Corp. (“TNR” or the “Company”) is pleased to announce the closingof a brokered private placement previously announced on August 4th,2009and led by Byron Securities Limited.(the “Agent”), which has resulted ingross proceeds to the Company of $500,000 (the “Offering”). The offering consistedof the issuance of 2,000,000 flow-through shares of the Company at a price of$0.25 per flow-through share for gross proceeds of $500,000. As considerationfor acting as agent, the Agent received a cash commission of 7% of the grossproceeds raised. In addition, the Agent was issued 200,000 agent’s warrants(the “Agent’s Warrants). Each Agent’sWarrant entitles the holder to acquire one non-flow through common share of theCompany at an exercise price of $0.25 per common share until February 14, 2011. All of the securitiesissued pursuant to the Offering are subject to a four month hold periodexpiring on December 15, 2009. Proceeds of Offering will be used to fundTNR's exploration projects in Canada. ABOUT TNR TNR is a diversified metals exploration companyfocused on identifying and exploring existing properties in Argentina and Alaska and new prospective projectsglobally. Upon approval of pending licences in Ireland, TNR will have a totalportfolio of 32 projects, of which 16 will be included in the proposed spin-off of International LithiumCorp. It is anticipated that TNR shareholders of record will receive one share andone full tradable warrant of International Lithium Corp. for every 4 shares ofTNR held as of the yet determined record date. This will result in TNRshareholders owning shares in both TNR and International Lithium. For furtherdetails of the spin-off please refer to TNR's April 27, 2009 news release orvisit http://www.internationallithium.com The recent acquisition of lithium projects in Argentina,Canada, USA and Ireland confirms the Company'scommitment to project generation, market diversity and building shareholdervalue. On behalf of the board, Gary Schellenberg President Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
d2thdr Posted August 24, 2009 Report Share Posted August 24, 2009 Awesome thread. Many thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Netwriter Posted August 25, 2009 Author Report Share Posted August 25, 2009 Awesome thread. Many thanks. Hi d2thdr, glad you liked it You got me reading it again Quite amazing how much stuff I've forgotten that I've written on this thread Interesting to see if it stands the test of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
d2thdr Posted April 5, 2010 Report Share Posted April 5, 2010 Did not see any information on the auspicious days for buying gold in India; ============================================================= Apr 22 Thurs Gurupushyamrit - Day for new ventures May 16 Sun Akshaya Tritiya -Gold invokes prosperity May 19 Wed Pushya Nakshatra - Day for new ventures Jun 15 Tues Pushya Nakshatra - Day for new ventures Jul 13 Tues Pushya Nakshatra - Day for new ventures Aug 9 Mon Pushya Nakshatra - Day for new ventures Sept5 Sun Pushya Nakshatra - Day for new ventures Oct 3 Sun Pushya Nakshatra - Day for new ventures Oct 17 Mon Dussera Festival - You give gold away to your family and friends on this day Nov 3 Wed Dhanteras - Gold invokes prosperity-----maximum purchase of gold Nov 5 Fri Deepavali/Laxmi Pujan Festival of lights -------substantial purchase of gold Nov 26 Fri Pushya Nakshatra Day for new ventures Dec 23 Thurs Gurupushyamrit Day for new ventures All these days are based on Hindu Calendar. So the dates are only for 2010. The dates will change every year according to Roman Calendar. Subscribe to Indian Holidays calendar on iCAL on mac or via google and you will know when the days are for the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jerpy Posted April 11, 2010 Report Share Posted April 11, 2010 Mike Maloney's answer to often asked question, "I want to buy gold and silver, but what should I buy" http://goldsilver.com/player/id/54/cID/4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jerpy Posted May 5, 2010 Report Share Posted May 5, 2010 How do you keep Coins/Bars in mint condition? Remember several debates about taking coins out of the bags they arrive in, seem to recall Ziknik mentioned some silver lost it's shine and advocating airtight bags from Staples for instance. There are plenty of airtite capsule suppliers around(see ebay), if not already encapsulated received from the mints. But what about bars. Making an assumption some form of airtight container may also be wise as with coins? So wondered if people had any specific suggestions, trying to check i'm doing it right or am I concerned about nothing? N.B Link to a post by ID5 as he's such a helpful chap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
id5 Posted May 8, 2010 Report Share Posted May 8, 2010 How do you keep Coins/Bars in mint condition? Remember several debates about taking coins out of the bags they arrive in, seem to recall Ziknik mentioned some silver lost it's shine and advocating airtight bags from Staples for instance. There are plenty of airtite capsule suppliers around(see ebay), if not already encapsulated received from the mints. But what about bars. Making an assumption some form of airtight container may also be wise as with coins? So wondered if people had any specific suggestions, trying to check i'm doing it right or am I concerned about nothing? N.B Link to a post by ID5 as he's such a helpful chap Always ready with an arm to help the old ladies into the path of oncoming vehicles For coins see the advice in the coins thread here but for bar a very light smear of any oil will do then wipe with a dry cloth. The visual condition of bar is really immaterial to its price as it has no numismatic value, it’s just bullion. There are though collectors of 1oz bar style tokens and those should be kept in the same manner as silver coin as there is some premium over bullion value for condition. There are also a few buyers of old hand poured bullion bars that are interested in the pattern and style of the stamping on the bars but these collectors are very few and far between and more often than not their collection is sold or broken up rather than going to a new collector. Again they would advocate a light oiling and darkness as the best way to store the bars as the completeness of the stamps and patterns is of greater importance than the perfection of surface quality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
M Colby Posted May 20, 2010 Report Share Posted May 20, 2010 I know a little bit about coins so I have given it a go http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....ost&p=49117 I READ THIS (part of the post) BUT DO NOT KNOW WHAT THE MEANING IS? Post was from: Jul 21 2008, 09:05 PM Millennium man Member No.: 1,809 Joined: 8-May 08 Also you would be amazed at how many people want to buy or sell PM’s without having to notify someone. Relatively compact, easy to sell, price may spike up and down intermittently but over a longer term is quite stable. Buy a coin a month, save them and give them to your children, grandchildren or lover before you pop your clogs or even leave them a letter in your will with a pirates map. Take a few abroad and flog them to pay for you holiday spending money. Physical is so hard to tax, that’s one reason why governments hate PM's id5 What are PM's? I am about to purchase gold coins for investment as my return from building societies in interest is so poor. I am hoping to keep my savings safer and hopefully only sell it when absolutely necessary. Being in my 70's I am also thinking of my children's inheritance. I founf the info on this site helpfull. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
M Colby Posted May 20, 2010 Report Share Posted May 20, 2010 I wrote all this a while ago, but I thought I'd post it here in the hope that it will help anyone just starting to think about buying gold/silver. If you want to buy some but have the company you buy it from look after it for you, then the options are: http://www.goldmoney.com/ Gold Money (James Turk): Gold = 3.39% over £6k, Silver = 5.25% for <£6k, 4.99% for more. There is no storage fee for gold in the London vault; only a monthly account fee. A storage fee of 0.24% per annum (2 basis points per month) is charged for gold stored in the Zurich vault, with a minimum fee of 0.1 grams of gold per month. If you own silver, a storage fee is deducted monthly from the amount of silver in your account. The fee is 0.99% per annum (0.0825% per month), with a minimum fee of 0.2 ounces of silver per month. http://www.bullionvault.com/ Bullion Vault is cheaper, but don't do silver. Has a more complicated system, but is more flexible. Charges: http://www.bullionvault.com/help/QuickStart.html (from 2.06% over 2 years) Another option is The Perth Mint Australia. http://www.perthmint.com.au/ig_metals.aspx They do various options. And will store for you and do delivery later if you wish. Depending on which country you are in, you may need to go through one of the listed brokers in your country. http://www.newzealandmint.com/ If you want to purchase gold and have it delivered: In the UK http://www.atsbullion.com/ In the UK, give these guys a call - I have used them and they are VERY professional and very competitive on pricing for 1 oz bullion coins - you can order over the phone with a debit card and they mail them to you discreetly and insured!!!! Baird and Co Prices of coins: http://www.goldline.co.uk/bullionCoinsPage.page Coin Invest Direct http://www.coininvestdirect.com/main.php Prices in GBP: http://www.coininvestdirect.com/main.php?a...rate=pound_rate Tax Free Gold http://www.taxfreegold.co.uk/ In NZ If you are in NZ, I think the best option is: http://www.newzealandmint.com/ The best option is 24ct gold kiwi coins. No GST, and they charge from 6.5% downwards depending on quantity. But the good thing is they buy them back at the spot price. So coins work out cheaper than bars, and if you have to use them, more saleable than bars. http://www.newzealandmint.com Tel. 0800 696 468 (0800 NZ MINT) Pensions Yes you can put pension money into gold. Here is one example for the UK: Gold SIPP - Gold Pension http://www.goldmoney.com/en/gold-sipp.html IMO if you want to do more trading in gold, then consider ETFs But, IMO these are not the safe haven that having allocated physical gold is. You will need to check the prospectus carefully to see what you are actually buying. Here are some examples: http://www.etfsecurities.com/en/updates/do..._Fact_sheet.pdf Reading IMO you should only invest in what you understand. So inform yourself before doing anything. For daily information from an experienced gold expert. http://www.jsmineset.com/ FUNDAMENTAL REASONS TO OWN GOLD BY: JOHN EMBRY, CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST OF SPROTT ASSET MANAGEMENT INC. & SPROTT GOLD AND PRECIOUS MINERALS FUND. http://www.sprott.com/pdf/reasons_to_own_gold.pdf This is a very long but very informative read about gold. http://www.gata.org/files/RedburnPartnersG..._11-12-2007.pdf Gold Is Money - Deal with It! - Remarks by Robert K. Landis to the Association of Mining Analysts, London, England, October 2, 2003 http://www.goldensextant.com/LandisAMA.html For daily news and great articles: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Topic3.html http://www.dollarcollapse.com/ For a good background read, and good info on BV (unfortunately BV Watch has closed. You may be able to find cached versions) Bullion Vault Watch - discusses the different ways to sown gold, including whether Bullion Vault is safe, including charts of how much gold they have. http://bullionvaultwatch.blogspot.com/ This article: http://bullionvaultwatch.blogspot.com/2008...vault-safe.html Found from this iTulip thread: http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=3143 You can get the latest prices from: http://www.bullionvault.com/gold-price-chart.do From: http://www.kitco.com/market/bp_charts.html Neat multi-currency chart http://www.kitco.com/gold_currency/charts.htm?gbp From http://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif And Silver in US$: From: http://www.kitco.com/images/live/silver.gif At the moment 1x 1oz coin costs around £460 or NZ$1200. So it's possible to invest say 10 or 20% of your liquid portfolio in gold, how ever much money you have. IMO think about buying gold like buying another currency. There is an exchange rate between all the paper currencies and gold. That's why the price of gold fluctuates relative to the paper currencies. Gold is a currency that cannot be printed, and pays no interest. Also, please remember the price goes up and down. Even during a gold bull market, there will be large fluctuations in the price. IMO buy and hold, and ignore the dips in between. Please can you give me any idea how heavy it would be in imperial weight- to carry 30 oz of gold coins? I think troy oz. are different to imperial oz.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jerpy Posted May 21, 2010 Report Share Posted May 21, 2010 What are PM's? I am about to purchase gold coins for investment as my return from building societies in interest is so poor. I am hoping to keep my savings safer and hopefully only sell it when absolutely necessary. Being in my 70's I am also thinking of my children's inheritance. I founf the info on this site helpfull. I'll be helpful in case id5 is busy. P.M's = Precious Metals As for the rest let me say welcome, the good people around here will not tell you what to do, but mainly what to think about. On that note take a look at the recent falls (Palladium ouch) and remember P.M's are not akin to building society investments, you don't get interest and their value can drop. But the true meaning of such volatility all depends whether you buy them to trade or as some form of insurance. As for inheritance, what P.M's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wanderer Posted May 21, 2010 Report Share Posted May 21, 2010 Interesting to re-read this thread. You get a graphic sense of how the price of gold has dramatically increased - people moaning in 2008 about paying £540 for a gold oz coin! Chance would be a fine thing now! It leaves me uncertain as to whether this means gold is in the early stages of a bubble (good) or toppy already (bad). I'd like to emphasise that for British people wanting gold for the SHTF scenario, the sovereigns seem the only way to go: cheapest way of buying gold and in a small and easy to carry format. 1oz coins will be too big in the SHTF scenario and sovereigns will be much more useful. Most importantly, before old MadMax comes along, both sovereigns and Britannias are CGT free. Anyone buying a Krugerand in 2008 at £540 would be selling now c.£880 and, in theory, paying £76 CGT. Anyone buying four sovereigns would buy and sell at similar prices and pay absolutely no CGT. Don't do tax fraud - they'll catch you one day and use it as an excuse to take all your coins! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gooone Posted July 24, 2010 Report Share Posted July 24, 2010 http://www.livegoldnews.com/ My favorite page with latest news about gold, silver and the monetary system. Keeps me updated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
macrylinda1 Posted August 4, 2010 Report Share Posted August 4, 2010 This is where that chart comes from: There's Just Not Enough Gold; Modeling A Dollar Flight To Gold http://www.kitco.com/ind/Dillon/jan172008.html And that means the price has been held artificially low so that the inflation of money isn't so noticeable. The big and interesting question is "can they keep the price low, or will they run out of gold or the ability to hold it down?" There are some signs that they are starting to fail. Like the price rising and the withdrawal of sale of gold coins from the US Mint. ____________________________ watch free movies online Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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