DoctorSolar Posted July 27, 2009 Report Share Posted July 27, 2009 Ted Butler's latest thinking the Gold/Silver ratio is set to get MUCH smaller. Meanwhile Bob Hoye thinks it is set to widen to 1 to 88! Ted Butler Commentary July 27, 2009 D-I-V-O-R-C-E there are two features in the current environment that may bear on the timing of the coming gold/silver split. Whether this is the time should be revealed in these two factors. One, the current relative structure in the gold and silver futures markets, as defined by the Commitment of Traders Report (COT), suggest the divorce may be near. In gold, the commercials are shorting heavily again, showing no fear in selling into the recent price rally. So far, the big shorts have not yet shown a similar willingness to short additional silver contracts. This holds the promise that they may not short on further price gains. Simply put, if the big silver shorts don’t sell additional contracts, the silver price will fly and the divorce papers will be filed. If they do sell, the price marriage will be held together temporarily. The second factor involved is the course of the CFTC in dealing with the issue of position limits in silver. This is directly related to whether the big shorts sell additional silver contracts. If the Commission does the right thing (as I hope), and levels the playing field in silver, then the big shorts can’t sell more COMEX silver short. If that occurs, as it should, the gold/silver divorce will be final. If not, the bad marriage will linger. All of which leaves me feeling like one big ball of confusion! From: EDIT: No way! I just noticed they are all wearing silver suits! Spooky! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grumpy-old-man Posted July 28, 2009 Report Share Posted July 28, 2009 Ted Butler http://www.thedailybell.com/bellPage.asp?nid=453&fl= hey InSilverWeTrust, thanks for that Ted Butler link you gave me on the gold thread. is he & others suggesting that silver is the new gold then ? why would this age old relationship break down though......surely it's ingrained in generations of different cultures, that's not an overnight switch. interesting stuff, I like to keep an open mind. iirc Pluto said a few times to watch silver, he reckoned that it may go further than gold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G0ldfinger Posted July 28, 2009 Report Share Posted July 28, 2009 ... iirc Pluto said a few times to watch silver, he reckoned that it may go further than gold. http://gold.approximity.com/gold-silver_watch.html David Morgan said on FSN last weekend that there is something like 100 times more paper silver than real physical silver. Buy physical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
electroweak Posted July 28, 2009 Report Share Posted July 28, 2009 David Morgan said on FSN last weekend that there is something like 100 times more paper silver than real physical silver. Buy physical. this might be the reason....(double post) http://seekingalpha.com/article/148141-sig...wals-from-comex Ending last week with nearly 119 million ounces of silver (Moz) in the four COMEX depositories, this week the word has been get your silver while you can. Slightly less than 2 million ounces of silver has been withdrawn from COMEX stocks in three days (July 6-8), with eligible silver dropping from 55.4 Moz to 53.5 Moz. Significant withdraws were experienced by HSBC Bank (HBC) (down 1.26 Moz) and Sottia Mocatta (down 546,000 oz). Brinks also registered a withdraw of 30,000 oz of silver. The reduction is only 2% of total stocks that COMEX claims, however it is nearly 5% of eligible stocks that can be used for futures redemption. The remainder is registered, but is already allocated (owned) by other investors who are storing it in the vaults. COMEX futures contracts however have been let for 429 Moz as of July 6 (vs 53 Moz of "eligible" silver in the vaults. If you add the future spreads, then COMEX has 522 Moz of contracts out vs 53 Moz of silver to cover those contracts. For leverage fans, that is 10 oz of silver under contract for every ounce of silver available. If you count the fact that COMEX allows you to purchase a contract with 10%, then actual leverage vs physical metal held by COMEX is closer to 100 to 1. That should answer the question as to why someone would refer to it as "paper" silver. It should also generate a question as to why so much silver is starting to flow out of the COMEX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grumpy-old-man Posted July 28, 2009 Report Share Posted July 28, 2009 David Morgan said on FSN last weekend that there is something like 100 times more paper silver than real physical silver. Buy physical. Hi GF, I know you have mentioned a few times that you are also buying silver. I would never ever consider paper gold/silver tbh. I am now faced with what ratio to buy. I had planned on 80/20 gold/silver....but now....h'mmm what to do..... I would like to make this decision in the next couple of weeks & then buy, then sit & worry like the rest of you All, Also I am not keen on buying everything in one go for the obvious various reasons, but will it make a difference, as it's now probably coming straight from my euro account, therefore traceable anyhoo's got me a whoooole lot o' googleing to do.......... that cgt thingy was a shocker I assume that when you sell via a reputable source that they take the cgt & pay the relevant government department ? & for my final question, where do you buy that key ? the one to success that I keep hearing about......is it expensive ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pixel8r Posted July 28, 2009 Report Share Posted July 28, 2009 got me a whoooole lot o' googleing to do.......... that cgt thingy was a shocker I assume that when you sell via a reputable source that they take the cgt & pay the relevant government department ? CGT is not removed when you sell, you need to account for it yourself via your tax return. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grumpy-old-man Posted July 28, 2009 Report Share Posted July 28, 2009 CGT is not removed when you sell, you need to account for it yourself via your tax return. ah, excuse my ignorance. Ta so it's not like when you sell a foreign property then......good. tax returns are not something I would EVER lose sleep about & also explains a pm I got from someone now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
electroweak Posted July 28, 2009 Report Share Posted July 28, 2009 ah, excuse my ignorance. Ta so it's not like when you sell a foreign property then......good. tax returns are not something I would EVER lose sleep about & also explains a pm I got from someone now. they have to know about it to tax it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ziknik Posted July 28, 2009 Report Share Posted July 28, 2009 they have to know about it to tax it.... How are you going to get round it? If you sell it at Chards for example, then Chards will have records of the sale in their books. This will allow HMRC to know who sold (if they chose to look). I doubt you will get round this by selling at CID as they are also a British Company. GoldMoney and BullionVault both say they will co-operate with the British authorities. And ebay monitor sellers on behalf of HMRC. It’s not worth getting caught in my opinion. I know people who have been investigated by HMRC and it is horrific by all accounts. You are presumed to be guilty until you prove otherwise. HMRC will never agree that you are ‘not guilty’ they will instead go quite. You won’t know if/when the investigation has finished. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorSolar Posted July 28, 2009 Report Share Posted July 28, 2009 Hi GF, I know you have mentioned a few times that you are also buying silver. I would never ever consider paper gold/silver tbh. I am now faced with what ratio to buy. I had planned on 80/20 gold/silver....but now....h'mmm what to do..... I would like to make this decision in the next couple of weeks & then buy, then sit & worry like the rest of you All, Also I am not keen on buying everything in one go for the obvious various reasons, but will it make a difference, as it's now probably coming straight from my euro account, therefore traceable anyhoo's got me a whoooole lot o' googleing to do.......... that cgt thingy was a shocker I assume that when you sell via a reputable source that they take the cgt & pay the relevant government department ? & for my final question, where do you buy that key ? the one to success that I keep hearing about......is it expensive ? Hi GOM, In case you are interested... In terms of physical ounces I went with 60oz silver for every 1oz gold. In cash terms this roughly meant an equal 50/50 split. I hold Gold through Goldmoney.com, whereas Silver I only ever buy physical coins and take delivery. And here is why... The spot price of silver is clearly way more volatile, however, the actually price you pay to get physical silver in your hands is much more stable. If the spot price goes down the premium just seems to go up. Keep an eye out for specials on http://www.coininvestdirect.com though. I recently bagged a stack of silver philharmonics for £11.50 each incl VAT & delivery. Excellent service too. I could be tempted to get some silver through Goldmoney too if we get a big sell off. Anywhere below 8GBP looks a safe bet to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
electroweak Posted July 28, 2009 Report Share Posted July 28, 2009 How are you going to get round it? If you sell it at Chards for example, then Chards will have records of the sale in their books. This will allow HMRC to know who sold (if they chose to look). I doubt you will get round this by selling at CID as they are also a British Company. GoldMoney and BullionVault both say they will co-operate with the British authorities. And ebay monitor sellers on behalf of HMRC. It’s not worth getting caught in my opinion. I know people who have been investigated by HMRC and it is horrific by all accounts. You are presumed to be guilty until you prove otherwise. HMRC will never agree that you are ‘not guilty’ they will instead go quite. You won’t know if/when the investigation has finished. Local coin shop for small (1 Oz or less) amounts... Transport to a domain where tax evasion is not a crime for other amounts. EDIT to add: at 18% it's not sooooo much of an issue (used to be 40% iirc). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grumpy-old-man Posted July 28, 2009 Report Share Posted July 28, 2009 Local coin shop for small (1 Oz or less) amounts... I visited my local jewelers last year & he offered me loads og coins & he also had some small bars. He had lot's of silver as well. I spoke to him after I made my first small gold purchase from CID last year. worth a bit of both I think ? some from local place & some from CID perhaps ? It's just that 'are they real/pure gold' thingy isn't it. I can't do the spinny in the air & look closely stuff as I haven't got enough experience of handling them. Transport to a domain where tax evasion is not a crime for other amounts. EDIT to add: at 18% it's not sooooo much of an issue (used to be 40% iirc). just saved me some time there chris ct, just googling for the info, sidetracked with other stuff en route....cheers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ziknik Posted July 28, 2009 Report Share Posted July 28, 2009 Local coin shop for small (1 Oz or less) amounts... Transport to a domain where tax evasion is not a crime for other amounts. EDIT to add: at 18% it's not sooooo much of an issue (used to be 40% iirc). You might have to make several trips as I don’t think you can take more than £10k of silver out of the country. I wrote a worked example for a CGT calc (below). I’m not sure if it is correct but it looks right as far as I can tell OK, here is my attempt at a worked example (can anyone confirm or challenge) * I buy £5k of silver bullion at GM * The silver price increases by 10 times in GBP * My silver is now priced at £50k * I gift half to my wife. We each have £25k of Silver. There’s no CGT on this transfer. We are deemed to have paid £2.5k each * We each sell the silver for £25k My taxes on this transaction are as follows (Wife is identical) * The actual gain I have made is £25k - £2.5k = £22.5k * The chattels rule allows me to calculate the gain as £25k - £6k x 5/3 = £31.66k. * We take the lower figure for CGT. In this case is it £22.5k (not £31.66k) * Now, I take off my personal allowance (of £10.1k). £22.5k - £10.1k = £12.4K * Then I pay 18% of this figure as CGT. £12.4k x 0.18 = £2.232k http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....st&p=118388 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aardvark Posted July 28, 2009 Report Share Posted July 28, 2009 How are you going to get round it? If you sell it at Chards for example, then Chards will have records of the sale in their books. This will allow HMRC to know who sold (if they chose to look). I doubt you will get round this by selling at CID as they are also a British Company. GoldMoney and BullionVault both say they will co-operate with the British authorities. And ebay monitor sellers on behalf of HMRC. It’s not worth getting caught in my opinion. I know people who have been investigated by HMRC and it is horrific by all accounts. You are presumed to be guilty until you prove otherwise. HMRC will never agree that you are ‘not guilty’ they will instead go quite. You won’t know if/when the investigation has finished. has anybody actually tested the cgt-free nature of britannias/sovs?? i mean has anybody made a load of profit, told the tax office (and told them its tax free) and they have let it go through as non-taxable? i'm just wondering if they might get arsey and try to do you for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Pipples Posted July 28, 2009 Report Share Posted July 28, 2009 has anybody actually tested the cgt-free nature of britannias/sovs?? i mean has anybody made a load of profit, told the tax office (and told them its tax free) and they have let it go through as non-taxable? i'm just wondering if they might get arsey and try to do you for it. All in the CGT manual - there's a link to it in this thread: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index....ic=7038&hl= In short, there's no CGT on UK currency. Also, I've just updated it re. Goldmoney and Chattels too. EDIT: whoopsy - forgot to add link. Done now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ziknik Posted July 28, 2009 Report Share Posted July 28, 2009 has anybody actually tested the cgt-free nature of britannias/sovs?? i mean has anybody made a load of profit, told the tax office (and told them its tax free) and they have let it go through as non-taxable? i'm just wondering if they might get arsey and try to do you for it. You wouldn’t mention britannias/sovs on your tax return in the same way you wouldn’t mention your ISAs CG78308 - Currency: coins: legal tender Sovereigns minted in 1837 and later years and Britannia gold coins are currency but, like all sterling currency, are exempt because of TCGA92/S21 (1)(B ). http://www.hmrc.gov.uk/manuals/CG4manual/CG78308.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aardvark Posted July 28, 2009 Report Share Posted July 28, 2009 You wouldn’t mention britannias/sovs on your tax return in the same way you wouldn’t mention your ISAs http://www.hmrc.gov.uk/manuals/CG4manual/CG78308.htm ok, so i wouldn't even have to bother telling them anything? i've never filled in a tax form before! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ziknik Posted July 28, 2009 Report Share Posted July 28, 2009 ok, so i wouldn't even have to bother telling them anything? i've never filled in a tax form before! That's right. You have to declare what you owe. AND what HMRC owe you You don’t have to declare what you don’t owe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aardvark Posted July 28, 2009 Report Share Posted July 28, 2009 That's right. You have to declare what you owe. AND what HMRC owe you You don’t have to declare what you don’t owe. good stuff, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grumpy-old-man Posted July 28, 2009 Report Share Posted July 28, 2009 yes, thanks guys, really useful info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HPCsoYESTERDAY Posted July 28, 2009 Report Share Posted July 28, 2009 way hay super sell-off in progress, me thinks that the fed must be due an announcement or something cheap silver come to daddy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HPCsoYESTERDAY Posted July 28, 2009 Report Share Posted July 28, 2009 this sell-off reminds me of the day the fomc met and announced qe (without the bounce!), look at the action in silver before and after the announcement: fwiw, i think the markets are reacting to the dx breaking out of its recent downtrend, must be bens reassurances to the Chinese that he has a strong dollar policy..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HPCsoYESTERDAY Posted July 28, 2009 Report Share Posted July 28, 2009 it will be interesting to see if the arrow formation holds, which would indicate a price level similar to today's for the end of this month; of course, we are getting nearer to the breakout all the time.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romans holiday Posted July 28, 2009 Report Share Posted July 28, 2009 it will be interesting to see if the arrow formation holds, which would indicate a price level similar to today's for the end of this month; of course, we are getting nearer to the breakout all the time.... That's a purdy picture. I think the trend should hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wren Posted July 28, 2009 Report Share Posted July 28, 2009 I just bought twice my normal quota after that dip. Give us more! It just bounced off USD 13.63. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now