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G0ldfinger

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Everything posted by G0ldfinger

  1. G0ldfinger

    GOLD

    Hi everyone. I am new here. This is my first post and at the same time my first thread. I am sort of looking for a new (internet) home after the environment over at HPC.co.uk got too annoying, with people moving the very popular gold thread around all the time. Maybe information on gold and related matters are more appreciated here. Anyway, should the moderators here deem this thread inappropriate, I would be happy to be moved. The theme of this thread should be general information on gold, gold as a macro-economic variable, and its relationships with other investements/assets, like e.g. houses. Money/credit/debt issues are of course of interest as well. My idea was to put it in the main forum because I like broad discussions. And my main reason for coming here is that the HPC-gold thread was moved from the main forum which reduced the number of posts/posters on it, and just made things much more inconvenient. I hope that is OK with the philosophy on this forum here. Regards, GF PS: I chose the name 'G0ldfinger' since I am/was 'Goldfinger' on HPC. No offense to the holder of the name 'Goldfinger' on this forum here, who seems to exist as well.
  2. This HPC will be much, much worse than 1990. According to this, we are witnessing a once-in-several-lifetimes event. Frontrow seat. http://www.wolseysec...news.php?id=566 QUOTE Activity levels down over 60% from last housing market crash Monday 18th August 2008 Wolsey calls for Government action or face the consequences. While the Government continues to flounder on the sidelines, activity in the housing market has sunk to an unprecedented low level. Wolsey Securities is calling on the Government to take urgent action, as activity falls to a low level that even surpasses the slump during the last housing market crash. With the Bank of England figures showing that only 36,000* mortgage approvals were made in June, the number of housing transactions is currently set to total just over 400,000 this year. This low level represents over a 60% drop in activity on the worst year of the 1990s housing market crash, when transactions ran at around one million. Mike Ratcliffe, chief executive of Wolsey Securities, comments: "Transaction levels have now dropped to dangerously low levels that have not been seen in several lifetimes. The housing industry cannot sustain this level of trade. Housebuilders are on their knees. If there isn't an improvement soon many will fold, as their cashflows will not be able to meet overheads and interest costs. ==== ==== UPDATED - by DrBubb:
  3. G0ldfinger

    Do Renters Die Poor?

    There was an article on this topic in DER SPIEGEL recently. People remarked that renters might save less but have better lives as they spend their money and have fun, rather than starving themselves to pay off the mortgage and then pass on a huge amount of money (in the form of a house) to some nephew of 2nd degree when they croak. So, maybe richer in monetary terms, but poorer in life experience and satisfaction? Just a thought... (and a German perspective as renting is a much better thing in Germany than in the UK).
  4. G0ldfinger

    GOLD

    Good to see a few familiar avatars around! Still holding all my gold and silver and adding to it every now and then. The wait has been long, so a little up-move in the metals would be nice to see. But I am very patient, and one has to be, it seems.
  5. G0ldfinger

    SILVER

    Interestingly, Dan Norcini is not at all bullish on silver: Agressive Hedge Fund Selling Plagues Silverhttp://traderdannorcini.blogspot.de/2014/08/agressive-hedge-fund-selling-plagues.html
  6. G0ldfinger

    SILVER

    It seems that we are contrarians here: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-25/gold-drops-toward-two-month-low-as-silver-slips-to-10-week-low.html
  7. G0ldfinger

    SILVER

    I sorta nailed this one back in the days: I think the jury is still out on this one: These are indicators that silver will outperform gold, and I think gold's resurrection is only a question of time given none of the deeper financial issues in Europe (and elsewhere) have been resolved. Call me Silverfinger!
  8. G0ldfinger

    GOLD

    http://gold.approximity.com/gold_charts.html http://gold.approximity.com/since1885/DJIA-Gold-Ratio_Q_LOG.html http://gold.approximity.com/since1885/Gold-Silver-Ratio_Q.html
  9. I think it's worth having an own thread for JS's posts. Posted On: Tuesday, October 07, 2008, 2:02:00 PM EST The Federal OTC Derivative Dealers Author: Jim Sinclair Dear Friends, Please understand that the Fed reacts to circumstances rather than acting before potential problems happen. If the Fed hadn't taken the rather strange action they took today by becoming OTC derivative dealers themselves this would have been the day the USA banking system imploded. Watch Libor rates to signal the point of detonation. Circumstances appear as if there were many problem Angels dancing on top of a pin that is being balanced on the nose of just those people who created the problem in the first place. An implosion of the banking system is coming, which means a bank holiday will occur. You now must have enough cash in hand to last a month or two. If you have not distanced yourself from financial agents then you have a financial death wish. If you have NOT made absolutely sure that your custodian account is a real custodial- ship you are probably in for a surprise. I took a call yesterday from a mature lady who told me she feels her money market fund that is only in Treasuries will not pay her out. They did tell her they intend to in seven days. I asked her to call me back in eight days. How does she know that this money market fund is not in OTC derivatives based on the movement of Treasuries? I do not want you to make that call to me. If you can retire from your retirement program at some reasonable discount do it NOW. This is it and it is NOW. Gold is going to $1200 and $1650. The US dollar rally has NO fundamental legs. Why are so many of you sitting there like a deer caught in the headlights? Protect yourself and do it TODAY! Respectfully, Jim ==== His website : http://JSmineset.com
  10. G0ldfinger

    GOLD

    http://gold.approximity.com/gold_charts.html
  11. G0ldfinger

    GOLD

    See you up thereeee!
  12. G0ldfinger

    GOLD

    DOUBLE.
  13. G0ldfinger

    GOLD

    Further to Igglepiggle's growing imbalances and ALK's criticism of my thinking that QE is here to stay. ALK, don't you see how QE is becoming engrained into the system and how we are slowly getting used to it? Those people who bought your NZ house or who are buying houses in the UK, US or Germany right now, they enjoy ridiculously low interest rates. Fine if they're fixed, but most of them are not. They take on a ginormous mortgage fixed for 5 years or so, and then you think they would be able to cope with, say for starters, triple the rates when the Fed stops QE? Also, the deficit in the U.S. has been reduced by sequestering, but this is a drag on the economy. Meanwhile the Fed has until recently monetized that whole deficit! So, do you really think they will start paying down debt soon, or at least keep it constant? No, again, QE will become accustomed to as the new normal. It's like NuLabour made sure that all the UK's debt was paid back during the boom years - oh, wait, it wasn't! Great surprise!! Read that famous book on the French hyperinflation following the revolution. It's appaling how history does not just rhyme, but seemingly repeat itself right here right now. Only, as I said, this thing is big, like a supersized super-tanker, so it will take off slowly.
  14. G0ldfinger

    GOLD

    DOUBLE POST.
  15. G0ldfinger

    GOLD

    What is the inflation rate at the time? What are interest rates doing? Who is the Fed Chair(Wo)man? Is it bail-ins or bail-outs, or both? What is MZM doing? What is money velocity doing? How is the US/Europe/China/Japan doing? How easy is credit? How are commodities like food and energy doing? One way of getting out could be to slowly turn gold into cheaper hard assets at the time (property, general stocks), but (if paper markets are still functioning) to speculate in long options to potentially cover any ridiculous spike-ups in the gold price, while keeping some bullion for SHTF liquidity reasons.
  16. G0ldfinger

    GOLD

    Here is where I am at: I have been somewhat surprised by the amount of time the central bankers have been able to buy with their hyperinflation of the monetary base (yes, just tripling it nilly-willy is HI in my opinion). On the other hand, as the likes of Prechter or our very own ALK simply do not grasp that the "deflation" they want to see (even ALK's house in the tundra went up in price over the past years - I'd call that INflation...) is there because of historically low money velocity and because of a certain unwillingness of banks to function as multipliers, this makes sense. For now mass psychology still is in favour of deflationary thinking while the fundamentals lean to the opposite. Fundamentals will - as always - win in the end and velocity will go back to normal and potentially way beyond normal, but it might take a while. The recent gold correction has an almost perfect historic blueprint in the 1974-76 sell-off (only, the fundamentals today are so much better for gold). So, people like Prechter or our very own ALK, who now expect gold to drop to USD 200, will most likely have to eat their hats (if they still own any at the time in question). I hope the traders have been able to trade this, and I hope the investors don't worry - just like me: I have not sold one ounce for divesting out of PMs. I still mostly hold physical gold and silver bullion, but increased gold & silver stock investments during the past two years (so far at a loss). As Igglepiggle points out: the imbalances are growing thanks to the printing presses. He is also right in pointing out that all major fiat currency turds are floating in the same bowl at roughly the same speed. That's why the golden life boat seems less necessary, but of course that's an illusion which will sooner or later disappear (and ALK will wake up and try to buy what by then will be unobtainium). Gold, like other assets, is forward looking when things get rough. The greatest increase in actual value might come (just?) before a large currency collapse or price inflation spike. "You got to be in it to win it." Recent developments in the LBM and the COMEX may be signs that the bottom has been reached and that some major players are in the process of repositioning themselves on the other side of the trade. So, Sinclair's prophecy might come true that in the end the former gold dumpers will make the most profit on the upside. Finally, I have never predicted the end of the world. The financial world as we knew it, however, ended in 2007 and we are sliding deeper into some sort of financial doom (which is entirely normal and happens quite often historically). It is so slow, however, that some (like our very own ALK) are not able to see it. This is to be expected. Further, I see no reason why gold could not be beyond USD 10,000 and the supermarket still be (a-okay) stocked. In fact, I sincerely hope that this will be the case.
  17. G0ldfinger

    GOLD

    Semper ad hominem, numquam ad rem.
  18. G0ldfinger

    GOLD

    Gold just another commodity? After 30,221 posts on this thread, this is still a topic on here? No wonder I had to essentially stop posting at this joint!
  19. G0ldfinger

    GOLD

    All the paper bug chickens are finally coming home to roost. (1) The COMEX gold shenanigans seem to be coming to a very sudden end. They seem to be turning themselves into a cash market (if any market at all) - credit to Sinclair for having predicted that one too! Backwardation in the first two months has been a stark warning for a couple of weeks. (2) Bernanke has proven to the world that the Dow and T-Bonds will just collapse without QE - so any successor (Yellen) of his will have to continue it forever - if they want it or not! (3) No single issue of the crisis since 2007 has been resolved. We are sourrounded by zombie banks that have been feeding on (now as well zombie) states. This is the perfect storm for gold. However, the price action that we have seen over the past two years has been absolutely confusing, and without the intellectual ability and self-confidence to see through the smoke and without the emotional stability to not panic out of sound portfolio positions, many might have been pushed out of gold over the past two years. I suppose this is how it has to be, as otherwise it would (have been) very easy for anyone to become very wealthy in what I think is going to unfold now.
  20. G0ldfinger

    GOLD

    Very interesting. Seen in http://www.mauldineconomics.com/ttmygh/what-if
  21. G0ldfinger

    GOLD

    Over the past 11,000 or so posts, I have mentioned quite a few of those things.
  22. G0ldfinger

    GOLD

    Here is some interesting, slightly dated Goldman Sachs research. On p. 9 it says: http://www.nowandfut...mmodity(GS).pdf By "explained" they mean the goodness of fit of a multilinear regression (it seems). So, according to this, dwindling COMEX inventories >> rising lease rates >> falling GOFO.
  23. G0ldfinger

    GOLD

    Contrary to a single stock someone may trade, gold - for me - is a long-term macro-"trade"(investment). Also, it is macro in a global sense. It is political. Because it is political, I can't come up with all the brilliant ways politicians may screw up over the next decade or so. I look at my quantitative fundamental indicators, but politics will have to be in line too. A "Volcker" at the Fed again? Unlikely, I suppose, but who knows. With Obama, Bernanke (and maybe Yellen), Draghi, Carney and Abe in place, given the fundamental quantitative indicators, I can only conclude: "very strong buy"!
  24. G0ldfinger

    GOLD

    Of course I will sell most of my gold when the time comes, and in the past I have written a lot about when I think that this will possibly be the case. Right now, my fundamental indicators tell me that gold is a strong buy.
  25. G0ldfinger

    GOLD

    Re: Backwardation/GOFO<0 one more time: Given it is only up to six months maturity and very small so far, some sort of short squeeze in upcoming deliveries, i.e. a high need for borrowing bullion to make deliveries fairly short term, is in my opinion the most likely reason. If this was the grand COMEX meltup, then all maturities should be in heavy backwardation - but they are not by a long stretch. However, it is a dynamic situation, so it might as well be the innocent looking start of the Big One.
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