G0ldfinger

I'll move this to main for a while since it is MAJOR news out of the U.S.: first new nuclear power plant permit in 33 years! http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-09/southern-prepares-to-usher-in-new-nuclear-era-as-nrc-weighs-plan.html Also: Cameco Seeing ‘Strong’ Growth in China, Chief Executive Says http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-09/cameco-seeing-strong-growth-in-china-chief-executive-says.html

What I don't like about the leveraging up that Dominic describes is that without serious need ("only" the discomfort of moving) you subject yourself to the banksters. A global margin call could wipe you out any time. Of course, the contracts usually don't have that possibility and if they did so the whole Western financial system would collapse instantly. But still. You can only really go bankrupt if you are in debt (otherwise, all you can do is diminish your equity).

I fully understand that people tend to buy under these kind of circumstances. The whole time my wife and I lived in the UK we lived in one single rented flat (almost 6 years). Since we have moved away from the UK, and after some trouble finding a suitable flat, we have now been living in another rented flat for almost 2 years. In my life as a renter (altogether 7 flats or so), no landlord has ever terminated my contract, it was always me. I guess I simply got lucky during my stint in the UK. As you guys know, I try to find the "sweet spot" for buying property. But truth at the moment is that it still is substantially cheaper to rent than owning a property where I live, and this is without a bubble and at ultra-low rates. Go figure.

http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/property/uk/money-morning-dominic-frisby-buying-property-20600 That's a major problem in the UK with renting, as there seems to be a much higher turnover of property and liquidity of property than elsewhere in Europe.

Regarding politics, I agree. It is all retrospectively done. Regarding central banks, I don't quite agree. Look at the Fed swaps recently. That was the typical emergency response to be expected. As long as it is a short term measure, they (central banks) are allowed to do crazy stuff to keep the system pumping - because that is the number one directive (not currency stability, but the 'functioning' of the financial markets). Then, retrospectively, politics will cement the short term emergency action as the usual temporary-roll-over-to-infinity financial gizmo, retrospectively justifying the creation of gazillions of Euros and Dollars. Therefore, I don't expect markets to seize up for a longer period of time. Maybe a day or two in the extreme, but then unlimited gazillions will flow. Gold, however, will essentially be unavailable. This is something no central bank will be able to 'fix'. There won't be any for sale. EDIT: Well, I hope I am not being complacent here. But I do have more than usual cash at hand.

Coming back to this. Yes, it will seize, but the the Zulauf scenario will happen: a HUGE flood of paper money will flush out the debt constipation. Markets will unseize, but they will be changed. Gold will go up +$1,000 the first day. +$2,000 the second, and +$5,000 the third. That's what I find more likely than the system just seizing up and freezing. Bernanke has made a promise, and he has kept it so far. Free unlimited money for everyone (sorts of).

:lol: :lol: Whoha, they wanna crash & burn it!! Wow! Just like the commies over on the other side of the globe. PUUUURGE!!!

With all the bickering on here, we shouldn't forget that we discuss problems at a high level here. Some people don't even have money or savings to talk about. In this extra cold weather, some simply need a warm coat and a warm pair of shoes. Inform yourself what your local charities do at the moment for people in need, and how you might be able to help. Put your savings to some good use.

Don't you think Bubb would trade in the 1.48% category anyway (on GM, I mean).

Yes, the size of the potential outfall is totally unclear at present. Greece is only a tremor, Italy lurking in the dark. Again, it is the old inflation-deflation debate, but hey, we have an Italian at the helm of the printing press. Yes, I think the renting part could be tricky, and also if you lever up on fixed IR you better make sure you have a fixed (or at least non-decreasing) EUR-income too. It is tricky. If they continue to inflate, this COULD be the sweet spot.

As good old Baghwan Osho once said: washing your brain every now and then is actually a good thing to do. I do it on a daily basis to flush out all the nutbag conspiracies I have to read about on here.

Enough time to let your buddies on here know that the BIG ONE has finally arrived.

I think and somehow fear that the sweet spot for German property might have been reached. (1) Interest rates are at an historic low. Depending on LTV and your occupation (lifetime state employee), there seem to be 30-fixes at 4%. (2) Prices have been fairly stable over the past 5 years, and also before, there was not really a bubble like in the UK-PIIGS. (3) But see the hockey stick at the end of the chart above? I fear that this is a first sign of a PIIGS-imported hyper-inflation. While they will see some asset deflation (Athens house prices minus 70% anyone?), I fear that the flood of money (ECB in hyper-drive) will (i) keep IRs in Germany extremely low for the foreseeable future. (ii) will make people who fear about their savings buy hard assets like houses (because they don't understand that gold would be better). (4) The general economy is doing fine and supporting house prices at the moment. This might change, but how bad would it have to get to really have a proper impact on house prices? This is a theory I have at the moment. This could be the sweet spot for German property. I wouldn't sell any (or at least: much) gold for it, but the time could be right to lever up. If house prices suffered some deflation in Germany too, it might come together with higher IRs and the effect on affordability could be muted.

OK, that makes somehow sense. Although, hard to believe that he thinks the price of silver will quintuple from here without a major correction. Call me Silverfinger.

There is this one: http://www.hypoport.de/hpx-hedonic.html

That is already the advanced stage, and all my writing circles around pointing out when was a good time to buy gold (it still is; this is where we disagree and have disagreed in the past (gold "done" below $1,000 etc.)), and when to possibly sell it a few years out. All the charts, measures and stuff I post here is on exactly this topic, while avoiding to do the manic short term trading that just costs nerves and might go horrendously wrong.

Yes, yes, yes. We even have a thread on it: http://www.greenenergyinvestors.com/index.php?showtopic=8312

Well, that would be interesting to know too, so thanks for looking into it. However, there is a currency risk (if these are not EUR mortgages from British banks). I was asking for the inter-Eurozone case. But anyhow, what you mentioned would be interesting to know too. It might tell us something about the connectivity of these markets.

See, that's why I am still posting here despite of having the feeling to have to wade through knee-deep esoterics each time I enter. Gold-wise, thanks to Bubb and a few, it still feels like swimming upstream.

BTW, to the average guy that would possibly be better advice than constant buying and selling and buying back.

Differences in repossession law, would be my guess. Maybe there would be other legal subtleties. Ah, well, if no one knows or where to read up on it, maybe I'll just have to phone in. Thing is, I haven't heard of it, and I haven't ever seen advertising for it (foreign but inner-Eurozone mortgages). Thing is, I could see European non-bubble markets to become a target of reckless (e.g. Irish or Spanish) lenders, and in the wake creating bubbles in these more prudent European property markets, wrecking the whole union in the end.

Hey Bubb, sorry, but you're writing 100% non-sense here. This gold has not been "found", it has always been there (even if the DailyMail didn't know it ). Please stop spreading such kind of non-sense. Most likely some of the posters on here own some of that stuff (directly or indirectly). It's simply one of the LBM storage facilities. And don't get me started on the Asteroid belts, because they also have always been there... Non-events. Is this GEI, or the "History" Channel's discussion board? Next thing you know, we'll be going ghost hunting with torch lights shining up our nostrils...

No one has answered my original question yet: can a German take out an Irish mortgage to buy a house in Germany. My guess is not, but it makes no sense.

Oh gosh, what brain-amputated BS!! The important question obviously is: WHO OWNS IT?

Just a remark: while the doofus banks in Ireland still offer 95% mortgages, I think it's pretty normal in Germany to have a 40% down payment - and the German economy is doing pretty well and there has been no house price bubble.