Jan. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Coking-coal miners in Australia, the world's biggest exporter of the raw material used in steelmaking, may lose at least 10 million metric tons of output because of flooding, Merrill Lynch & Co. said.
That's equal to about 8 percent of Australia's annual coking coal exports, based on 2006 data. This month's weather forced Macarthur Coal Ltd., the world's biggest coal exporter, and Wesfarmers Ltd. to declare force majeure, a legal clause allowing companies to default on delivery commitments due to circumstances beyond their control.
``We calculate at least 10 million tons of coking coal could be lost,'' Merrill analysts including London-based Daniel Fairclough wrote in a report today. With train and port capacity strained, ``there is little or no chance of making up this lost tonnage.''
Producers including BHP Billiton Mitsubishi Alliance, the world's biggest coking-coal exporter, are in talks with buyers to set annual prices. International prices for hard coking coal were set at $92 to $98 a ton for the current year, which ends in March. Prices may rise to $160 to $170 a ton, Merrill said.
Merrill had forecast a global annual supply shortfall of 6 million tons before the flooding in Australia. The bigger deficit in supply may constrain global steel production, Merrill said.
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